An Up To A Down

77 Comments

7:06AM

High pressure builds over the region today into Wednesday allowing more typical July warmth to invade the region, but only briefly, as a cold front will move into the region late Wednesday, putting an end to the short-lived warm spell by Thursday. But it does set us up for a nice Friday and Saturday before the next trough from the west brings shower threats Sunday into early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Areas of fog especially coastal locations early morning otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 70s immediate coast and Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but sea breezes near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to start but areas of low clouds and fog forming later. Lows 65-70. Wind light S to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Areas of low clouds and fog to start, then mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms may arrive in areas well north and west of Boston by late day. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod and some coastal areas, 80s to around 90 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers AM. Clearing PM. Low 62. High 77.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 65. High 80.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 80.

77 thoughts on “An Up To A Down”

  3. Thanks TK. Birthday party Sat morning for a friend at Castle Island and it looks great. The little girl will be very happy!!

    2. Castle Island is our home away from home. Spent both days there this past weekend and my youngest son would go there every day if I let him. Enjoy the party.

  4. Thanks TK.

    So to you, it looks like timing is off for any significant T-storm activity
    in Eastern sections. Correct?

    Eric mentioned a Severe T-Storm possibility last night.

    Has he boarded the HYPE TRAIN? Hope management has not gotten to him!

      1. Looking at the 06Z CMC, NAM and GFS, they ALL point to
        very large instability indices for Wednesday PM to Evening,
        WELL to the North and West. Parameters NEVER get juicy
        in Eastern sections as the diurnal heating is lost by the time
        the proper ingredients get to our area AND whatever else happens
        to KILL it.

        A shower or perhaps a leftover garden variety T-storm looks
        to be about it in our parts. 😀

          1. I NEVER water the lawn. IF it turns brown, it turns brown. IT’s what Mother Nature intended. 😀

            Btw, I live in the City and have a relatively small lawn. Who gives a Rat’s behind whether it’s green or not. 😀 It’s green most of the time, except in
            DRY Summers.

            1. If my lawn was well established i would def let it go during the summer. Since its still relatively new as of this past fall i dont want to let all my hard work and money go to waste.

    2. Ya know OS, i was thinking about that as u said Eric was saying severe t-storms. He was one of the biggest proponents of the severe weather potential last time, and we all know how that ended up. I certainly hope management has not gotten to him!

      1. Oh boy. I’d say causing it. But IMHO a rubber roof should stand up to snow and ice. It’s a fact of life here

        1. Agreed. So, I am wondering IF the animals are
          responsible, aka squirrels!!!!

          Insurance appraiser coming on Thursday.

  7. NWS out of Upton seems to be pulling out all the stops for Wednesday evening.
    HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT…WITH
    THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH A RATHER WARM AND HUMID
    AIR MASS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
    COULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING…AND SHOWALTER
    INDICES OF 0 TO -2 PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT…ESPECIALLY OVER
    EASTERN PORTIONS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE REGION AT THE MINIMUM INT HE
    RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 80+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET…AND POSSIBLY IN A
    COUPLED UPPER JET REGION – DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL JET. MODELS DUE VARY ON THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE
    LATTER. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-35 KT DURING
    THE EVENING SO THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/CAPE FOR ISOLATED
    SUPER CELLS DURING THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NYC/NE NJ/S CT/LOWER
    HUDSON VALLEY ZONES. AS SUCH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
    POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MAINLY PRIOR TO 6Z.

  8. NWS out of Taunton take For Wed night.
    WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY… THE COLD FRONT CROSSES MUCH OF OUR
    REGION WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES INTO
    POSITION OVERHEAD. WINDS AT 500 MB WILL BE 35-40 KNOTS. TOTALS NEAR
    50/LI -4 AND LOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
    COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST A
    POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
    NEAR 2 INCHES…SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE.

    1. Yes and I’m Santa Claus! 😆

      Could happen, but I’m NOT counting on it.

      Until my roof is fixed I have declared a moratorium on RAIN!!!

  9. Thanks TK! Three more work wake-ups until my 2-week staycation. Hoping for a decent stretch of weather during those two weeks!

  10. GFS still being the most aggressive for tomorrow. As I said yesterday not buying it nor am I buying NWS out of Upton, NY take for tomorrow but as always keeping an eye on it.

  11. IF one is to believe the 12Z NAM, Eastern sections escape tomorrow WITHOUT
    a DROP OF RAIN. 😆

    1. I’d believe it. In fact, I’d put money on it based on the lack of anything surviving the trip from western sections into SE MA.

  12. Rumblings from DT of facebook about the huge trough in the east combined with a strong Bermuda High potentially setting up an avenue for tropical systems to impact the east coast. If there was more activity in the Tropics this year we could be looking at multiple landfalling systems on the east coast. Many similarities being throw around about this years’ potential “Bertha” and the Bertha of the late 90’s.

  13. If any thunderstorms do form they may weaken as they approach western parts of SNE. There have been a few times where the storms look impressive in the Hudson River Valley of NY only to weaken when they get to where I am in CT and all we get is quick downpour a few rumbles of thunder.

  14. OS: You are a character. And I mean this in a good way. Your statement on watering the lawn had me laughing: “I never water the lawn … if it turns brown it turns brown, so be it.” Got to love that attitude. I’m not that way, but you know there’s something to be said for your approach. I’m not a religious person. But, one could say God meant for the grass to turn brown in NE, both in summer and in winter. This is not Seattle or Dublin where grass is green all year round.

  15. Latest update from the SPC has expanded the slight risk to include more of MA with the exception of the eastern section who are in the general thunderstorm outlook.

    1. It is pretty aggressive for sure, especially West of say the Worcester area.

      Will check NAM and CMC and also Euro shortly. 😀

  17. I am surprised that the GFS has not really back down and until I see other models coming on board with that solution I just can’t buy it. I do see some a few isolated strong to a locally severe storm across parts of the interior of SNE but I don’t see an outbreak of severe weather.

    1. Meaning What? She’s now married? Is that what you mean?
      OR is she no longer in Meteorology? 😆

      1. Recently engaged. I guess not “officially” off the market, so there’s still time 😀

          1. Haha! True John, yes, not bad either. There was just something about her. If I could describe my “type” if you will, that was it 🙂 Annnd I digress, lol

          2. She used to work here in CT at the CBS affiliate WFSB Olessa Stepanova and when she came her in
            January 2011 when we had all that snow the on air talent was teasing here calling Olessa Snowanova.

    1. Timing of what? IF nothing happens, how does one assign a time frame? 😆

      IF anything happens, I’m thinking 7-9 PMish. 😀

  23. It is seriously hot outside, 92 here in Wrentham. Forecasts were too low on temperatures for today. Makes me wonder how hot we could get tomorrow since it is supposed to be hotter than today.

    1. That’s FUNNY. Look at the latest Logan obs:

      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

      Partly Cloudy
      79.0 °F
      Last Updated: Jul 22 2014, 3:54 pm EDT
      Tue, 22 Jul 2014 15:54:00 -0400
      Weather: Partly Cloudy
      Temperature: 79.0 °F (26.1 °C)
      Dewpoint: 66.9 °F (19.4 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 67 %
      Wind: East at 13.8 MPH (12 KT)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1017.1 mb
      Altimeter: 30.04 in Hg

    2. Those areas will be similar or slightly less hot than today. The hottest areas will be the coastal plain of eastern MA and southeastern NH tomorrow.

  25. Just out from Taunton NWS:

    TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT…

    * A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS *

    THE BEST AREA TO SEE THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
    NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.

    Gee I’m North and West of I-95. Do you think I see a strong storm?
    I think NOT!!!

      1. People will misinterpret that and think everywhere in the oval is going to get crushed, while the % chance of that happening is not really that high. The only way it would happen is a very well-formed squall line with full support charging ESE.

  27. Pete now has a scary map for STRONG/SEVERE STORMS for all areas except Cape & Islands. If this doesn’t pan out yet again, then the public will surely ignore these warnings for the rest of the summer.

    Of course, since I hate thunderstorms, these “busts” are OK with me. 😉

  30. OS I saw your comment re Eric succumbing to station management. Sadly, they have little choice. It is a tactic I am familiar with on 7 but not so much on 4. Like Pete I do not think it is his style. Hype is the name of the game and it is getting worse

  31. Just curious…What happened to Michelle Roberts (A.M. Traffic) on Ch. 4? She seemed to disappear all of a sudden. I don’t recall any on-air goodbyes. Of course I don’t usually watch the very end of the newscast just before 7:00 am.

    This makes WBZ Ch. 4 the only station in Boston without a regular traffic reporter.

    1. 😀

      Now you can go check out the new blog and let me know what that title makes you visualize. 🙂

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