Friday Dryday

103 Comments

10:33PM

The transition day is done, and it was a nice day for many, despite some cloudiness. Some wet weather was still hanging around parts of Cape Cod, but now it’s time for a high pressure area to build in for Friday with pleasantly dry air and mild to warm temperatures, along with lots of sun and a few clouds – a great Summer day!

The weekend will be a split decision. High pressure hangs on Saturday which will be a warm day with fair weather and a slight increase in humidity. By Sunday, a trough from the west will bring unsettled weather with more humidity as well as showers and thunderstorms. This will continue Monday as a deeper trough of low pressure digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The trough should start to weaken and lift northeastward into southeastern Canada toward the middle of next week with improving conditions.

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 50s except lower 60s urban areas and immediate coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 80, cooler Cape Cod and South Coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 60, some 50s interior valleys. Wind light S.

SATURDAY: Sun mixed with high clouds. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 83.

103 thoughts on “Friday Dryday”

  2. Thanks TK.

    For those interested we are going to do a blog get together on Thursday 8/21 at JP licks at Legacy place (Dedham). Meet up at 7:30 and we can go from there. As group we can decide to stay there or head somewhere else. Look forward to meeting everyone.

  9. 6z GFS For Sunday not as aggressive as the NAM
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=084&fixhh=1&hh=066

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=066&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  11. To me the key to Sunday is the warm front. If it clears and we get warm sectored I could see where there could be showers rumble of thunder in the morning then we break into POTENTIALLY self destructing sunshine and have to watch later in the day if we get a trigger for another round of showers and storms. If the warm front gets stuck I think there could be lot of clouds around all day.

  12. Good morning. Horrible tornado damage in VA at a campground last night. Tom or JJ was that near the areas where you vacationed?

        1. Husband and wife, both 38, were killed by a tree that fell on their tent. Their 13 yr old son has life threatening injuries. He was in a second tent nearby.

  14. 2 more weeks until the first preseason game for the patriots. Our defense looks awsome this year. Though i would have liked to have talib still on the pats

  15. oh to talk about that tornado, 5 years ago when my family went down there, that was our campground that we stayed at.

  18. 12Z NAM is quite different.

    Show some instability early Sunday, then not so much later in the day.
    Has more instability for Monday.

    I think models are having trouble determining timing of short waves and fronts
    and where/if surface low develops. Loads of uncertainty for the weekend into
    Monday.

    Waiting for NAM to be totally available at http://meteocentre.com/ to see the LI
    and EHI in addition to the CAPE available at Instant weather maps.

  20. I’ve been looking at some Canadian visibile satellite pictures.

    There is a plume of smoke rotating around an upper level low around Hudson Bay.

    I think some of it is over New England today.

    If it stays clear through this evening, I wonder if there may be one of this extremely red sunsets ?

  26. So, 48 hrs out, instability parameters look good.

    If I’ve been paying attention correctly, at some time before the event, all the modeled parameters back off.

    When has that general timeframe been ?

    1. Tonight’s 0Z or tomorrow’s 12Z should start the back off, I think.
      We shall see.

      REMEMBER, for this event the NWS called for 70% chance of SEVERE weather
      a few days ago! 😀

      1. I know I’m trying to compare apples and oranges, but …. from a surface perspective, it seems like a surface low is going to track a bit closer to our region.

        I think many lows have been north of New England, but this low seems to be headed for north-central New England and I wonder if the corresponding dynamics may end up closer to southern New England ???

        1. Indeed. BUT, again, each model is DIFFERENT with that.
          Look at the CMC. It has a low developing over SW
          CT.

          We shall see. 😀

  27. As a contrast, consider the 12Z CMC

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    So within 54 hours or so, still model Divergence.

    I’m still of the thought, garden variety thunderstorms at best, if any at all. 😀

  28. Thanks for the significant tornado ingredient links Old Salty from the SREF. Will be interested with the next run of that model says but both time periods you posted CT is in the red shading.

  30. Latest 15Z SREF RUN:

    Significant tornado ingredients

    15Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072515/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f048.gif

    18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072515/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f051.gif

    Interesting. Not sure I have seen this over Boston before. Hmmmm

    Significant tornado parameter 21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072515/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f054.gif

    Helecity at 21Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072515/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f054.gif

      1. I had type in the meaning and it still didn’t show.

        Index means severe storms likely.

  32. So what’s Monday look like right now in my area (Woburn)? Leaving for vacation but hesitant now since I have so many water problems. Any sense as for amounts…start and stop times? I know it’s subject to change. Thanks.

    1. Depends upon your model of choice. 😀

      I honestly couldn’t tell you.

      It’s possible we get the worst of any possible severe weather on Sunday AND/OR
      Monday. Difficult to say at this point.

    2. WW, they had to drag me out of here to leave for vacation on the 4th with Arthur pouring down.

      1. EHI
        EHI > 1 Supercell potential
        1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
        5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

  34. Helicity of 100-150 doesn’t sound like much, BUT if you put that together with
    CAPES of 3,000 or 4,000 Joules, then it becomes a serious factor.

    We shall see.

    1. Not for nothing, But 18Z NAM shows
      surface winds at 0Z from South with 850MB
      winds Wsw, 700 and 500MB due West.

      We got some shear going here.

      1. Big time !

        We’ll see if everything will line up (heating, dynamics, moisture, etc).

        I think they’ve always been out of psynch this summer, but perhaps this time, they will be more in phase.

        1. It this is out of psych weather, I’ll take it…well maybe with a few more Tstorms. Maybe you really can’t have your cake and ….

  35. There are currently 3 totally different 7-day forecasts by the TV mets. I would expect something like this in the middle of winter…not in the middle of summer.

    If you have plans I guess…pick your favorite 7-day and go from there. 😀

    1. Hmmm…the WBZ website has a different forecast for Sunday (sunny) from what Eric has on-air which is showery like the others have. However, Harvey has it wet for late next week…I actually saw that on TV. Eric and Pete have it nice & dry for next Friday.

      I am wondering if from now on, I should check the on-air broadcast to confirm what the website says regarding these 7-day forecasts. 😉

      1. Web pages are not always updated very well.

        And I believe depends on where you look, Ch 4’s page has forecasts from the weather team there and from AccuWeather, so they can vary greatly even on the same day’s forecast.

    2. Looking at the upcoming pattern, it surprises me not one bit that those forecasts vary. 🙂

  36. Good evening, beautiful day!! We are beginning late summer visits on Monday. Hoping for some rain on Monday.

  42. Today’s (simpler) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Where do Santa Ana winds come from?
    A. New Mexico
    B. Vermont
    C. California
    D. Mexico

    Answer later today.

    1. This is another question that is ambiguous.

      It is worded POORLY again.

      I know where they come from and in my opinion, the answers
      don’t provide the true answer.

      For the sake of giving an answer I’ll say ‘C’, California.

      1. AccuWeather has had a number of what I consider not-so-great questions and not so well worded ones at that.

        1. Oh yes. I’m not blaming you.
          I really appreciate the quizes and enjoy them.
          Thank you for continuing to post them.

          Accu weather blows!

          I just wish they could word them better and have more
          concise answers. 😀

  43. Once again conflicting information regarding severe weather tomorrow and/or Monday.

    A tornado threat, IF ANY, appears to be tomorrow in Western/Southwestern
    sections of NE.

    Here is the latest SREF significant tornado ingredients map for tomorrow:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

    Significant tornado parameter

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

    Helecity

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f039.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f042.gif

      1. 06Z CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km interpolated to 15 km)

        EHI

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

        LI

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=LI&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

        CAPE

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  45. 06Z EHI at 18Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=036

    LIFTED INDEX at 0Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=LI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=042

    CAPE at 0Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=042&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI at 0Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=042&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  46. So reading about El-Nino that is supposed to develop, I feel it’s more likely to be weak. I think that greatly impacts our fall and winter weather.

      1. Yes if you look at history of El Niño when in a weak state snow had been big for eastern 1/3 of the US.

  47. Old Salty thanks for all the links. The 6z NAM has come down a little with EHI values from my part of CT but still values on that run of the model the CMC and the SREF are showing ingredients that some of these storms could POTENTIALLY rotate.

    1. That’s what we are watching. Interesting that SPC says
      Low level shear may be weak thus any tornado threat would be brief
      and weak.

      Usually when the SREF has those significant tornado ingredients bullseyes,
      that is precisely where the SPC ends up posting a tornado watch. I wouldn’t
      let my guard down just yet. Hopefully there will be NO tornadic activity.

      IF there is, western sections are PRIMED for it, includuing your area.

  49. If we get what I call on thunderstorm days self destructing sunshine that will further destablize the atmosphere as we should be warm sectored tomorrow and thunderstorms love feeding off that unstable environment. The ingredients are there for some strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow and even the POSSIBLITY of a rotating storm based on what were seeing in the latest model guidance. I will be interesting with the 12z runs show.

    1. That’s a scary term: Rotating Storm.

      Here’s the CMC info for 18Z Sunday which had the HIGH EHI values for
      CT

      10M winds (South)

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=UV10m&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=QQ500&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      850MB winds (SW)

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=TT850&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=UV10m&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      700mb Winds (WSW)

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=TT850&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=UV10m&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      500 MB winds (WEST)

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=QQ500&hh=036&map=qc&stn2=WW700&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=036&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      So, there is shear there. Enough? Not sure, but if we get a discrete supercell
      with this shear, could get it rotating.

  50. With all of the above, I must add that the 0Z run of the Euro was NOT at all impressive
    with regards to severe weather. Garden variety t-storms at best. 😀

    Hey, but what do the Europeans know about our weather? 😆 😆

  51. Despite SPC have all of SNE in the slight risk tomorrow no hazardous weather outlook posted by the NWS out of Taunton when on Wednesday afternoon they were saying moderate probablity strong to severe storms Saturday night through Monday timeframe.

    1. I often wonder about our local NWS office????

      Very strange, indeed.

      SPC, generally, know their stuff.

      I’d go with them. 😀

  52. Charlie, u mentioned u are starting late summer visits. What do those typically include?

  53. Good morning all!

    I just updated the blog and reposted the quiz there, but I didn’t repost anything after that. Feel free to do so. 🙂

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