Weekend Update

157 Comments

8:23AM

No changes to the previous discussion and very little change to the details of the forecast that accompanied it. Here is a slightly updated forecast for southeastern New England for this weekend and next week (through Friday).

TODAY: Sun mixed with high clouds. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers after midnight. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring late morning and late afternoon/evening. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms through midday. Low 64. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 78.

THURSDAY:Β  Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 79.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 80.

157 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  1. Reposting of Longshot’s AccuWeather Quiz:

    Longshot says:
    July 26, 2014 at 6:53 AM (Edit)

    Today’s (simpler) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Where do Santa Ana winds come from?
    A. New Mexico
    B. Vermont
    C. California
    D. Mexico

    Answer later today.

  3. Interesting wording from NWS Upton, NY office.

    THE 00Z NAM IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE
    FROM CENTRAL NJ TO MA WITH 60+ KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (~15KT 0-1KM
    SHEAR)…APPROX 1K J/KG OF SBCAPE…400-500 M2/S2 OF SFC-1KM
    HELICITY AND AN LCL BELOW 1K FT AROUND 06Z MON. THIS WOULD BE
    SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS.

    1. I could see that as a possibility, but have you ever noticed much of what comes out of those discussions, potentially speaking, does not usually bare much fruit? πŸ˜‰

  6. Good morning everyone, a nice summer day mixed clouds and sun, went to Patriots mini camp this morning, we got there 30 min’s before practice and the count was already at 9,100, they said there expecting between 15-20,000. One more mini camp practice tommorrow and then there off to Richmond for joint practice with the redskins. Good day everyone!!

    1. You know model watching gets frustrating the way it evolves and keeps changing!

      12Z runs have BACKED off considerably for tomorrow/Monday. πŸ˜€

      We’ll see what later runs show.

      Checking SREF now. πŸ˜€

  8. SREF SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS

    15Z Sunday

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif

    18Z Sunday

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033.gif

    15Z Monday

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072609/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif

    Helecity 18Z Sunday

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072609/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f033.gif

    I don’t think the models know which end is up.

  11. SREF still highlighting a good chunk of CT in that significant tornado parameters for tomorrow.
    Thanks for those links Old Salty.

  13. 12z CMC
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  14. 12z GFS has the most negative lift index values and the lowest amount of EHI Values
    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=033&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=033&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  16. That SREF has been consistent and what I noticed Old Salty was a 15 with a circle around that in my part of CT at 15z tomorrow.

    1. Yes, but that does NOT mean that any tornadoes will occur.
      However, they appear to be MORE likely than at any other time so
      far this season.

      BTW, EURO severe parameters, although they call for T-storms, are NOT
      very impressive as to severe possibilities.

      We shall see.

      Just for you JJ, I am going to post one Euro Severe parameter, the
      APRWX Tornado Index. It’s a special index that is based on an area
      first having parameters for severe and then it zooms in. It is close to your
      area, but not there.

      http://i.imgur.com/uf6Uysl.png

      You will note that the index is at the top of the scale!!!

      The threshold where things begin to indicate “yes, expect tornadoes” is 28.
      …on the respective maps.

      The ranges go up to a maximum value of 50. Think of higher values as a higher confidence level.

      1. So, IF I understand this correctly, a top of the scale reading
        is a very STRONG indicator to the likelihood of tornadoes.

        The location could be off as not all of these models agree.

        IF the conditions find themselves farther North, like the SREF
        is indicating, it could get really dicey in your area and who knows, could be a large chunk of SNE. Something to monitor carefully.

        1. BTW, to me, that location doesn’t make sense.

          I’m guessing the actual location would be more North
          and NOT over the ocean. πŸ˜€

              1. You are being very kind.

                If I ever got to be a Met, I’d be so pissed off at management, I’d say something and get fired! πŸ˜€

  17. Thanks Old Salty for the link. That is a little too close for comfort where I am.
    I am thinking the greatest threat for an isolated tornado is Mid Atlantic but would not rule one completely out here in SNE tomorrow based on some ingredients that are in place.

  18. My bullesye for an isolated weak tornado tomorrow would be Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley. However I would not be surprised if there is an isolated weak tornado here in SNE and I would favor the interior from CT River Valley West for that.

    1. JJ what makes you think that any tornado would be weak?

      I personally think that ingredients are in place for possibly more than
      just a weak tornado. An F3 or higher would not surprise me at all.

      We shall see.

      Actually the index is misleading.
      It is Significant ingredients, NOT ingredients for significant tornadoes.
      They should really clarify that. πŸ˜€

  19. Highlight of pats camp today…..the entire team sung happy birthday to Danny Nickerson. Just makes you smile.

  20. Waiting for the rest of the 18Z NAM data, but CAPE values are DOWN
    with this run. That’s a good sign, Of course it is only 1 model and it is the 18ZA run
    at that. We continue to watch. πŸ˜€

        1. I had another model loaded.

          Here is today’s 18Z NAM for 21Z tomorrow

          CAPE

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=024&fixhh=1&hh=027

          LI

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

          EHI

          http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

          Sure seems like the biggest threat would be SW CT, SE NY and Eastern PA.

          Will continue to monitor

    1. Say it ain’t so, OS for Nashville. I have dear friends who live in a northern suburb who have just lived there for 7 months. Like all of us, they’re hearty New England folks who aren’t used to that sort of thing. They’re wilting in the summer heat and humidity there. I do fear for them, as their property doesn’t have a ton of trees to act as shields, and they don’t have a basement or storm shelter.

  22. Answer to Today’s (simpler) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Where do Santa Ana winds come from?
    A. New Mexico
    B. Vermont
    C. California
    D. Mexico
    The answer is C.

    1. Awwww darn. The wayside inn was nice enough to reserve an outside table for lunch tomorrow. It will be our first meal out with mac and he was more comfortable on the patio. And looks a a if the weather may not cooperate. πŸ™

        1. Thank you both. Keeping fingers crossed also but if it isn’t the right time, we will find another way to have fun πŸ™‚

  25. Head up be aware of scam IRS phone calls!!! Hitting my town today and yes I received a call . It’s a 202 number. Just thought I would pass along. Call your local police dept if you receive this call. If you do answer try to get information without giving any of yours.

    1. Thank you, John! Those robocalls are the bane of my existence. I’m on the National Do Not Call List, and these hooligans still call. I just ordered a Panasonic phone system that blocks “private,” “unknown,” and “blocked” numbers, and you can program up to 60 numbers to block from coming through. Can’t wait until it gets here!

  27. SPC continues to highlight SNE in the slight risk for severe weather today. The bigger threat looks to be in the Mid Atlantic and Ohio River Valley where tornado wind and hail probablities are higher than they are here. For here in SNE hail 15% wind 15% and tornado 2%. Will see if anything changes when this gets update around 9AM this morning.

      1. Hi Hadi…. I had trouble falling asleep last night so I was up I checked the SPC outlook for today and commented
        about here on the blog. I don’t see a big severe weather outbreak here in SNE but wouldn’t rule out a few of these
        storms to reach severe levels.

  30. Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    In diameter, the size of a typical thunderstorm is…
    A. 5 Miles
    B. 15 Miles
    C. 25 Miles
    D. 35 Miles

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Worldwide how many thunderstorms are there at any given moment?
    A. 200
    B. 500
    C. 2000
    D. 5000

    Answers later today.

    2. Thank you, OS! As of 2:52pm, their area is not in any watches or warnings, which is great, and the radar in their area is clear. I went out there around Thanksgiving for a job interview at my friend’s new company (obviously didn’t get the job), but my friends still want me to move down there. I am on the fence about it, as MA is my home, but the real estate taxes and longer gardening season are real draws to me there. Personally, I’m not a summer person. I can’t remember whose wife here has a hard time with summer, but I am the same way. If it’s too hot and humid (85+ with a DP of 65+), it’s almost unbearable for me, but I’m fine in central air. On the other hand, the weather events sure would be interesting!

    1. Just got cloudy here. Looks like I may miss or just get the tail end of the showers/storms moving east northeast out of CT. Looks like you may miss it entirely.

      1. Hampton, but not the beach where it once was before a major fire there about a decade ago. This is its new location.

        1. Yup I know where that is it’s like Hampton falls area right. Trying to read the paper on the back deck but quite breezy. The sun is in and out but when out you can feel it.

    2. Meteorologist, entrepreneur ….. works a day job in Boston …… wow, OS !!!!

      πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

      1. Sorry,

        I never told you all about that enterprise of mine. πŸ˜†

        No, just kidding. πŸ˜€

    1. At least I don’t see any rotation with them.
      Looks like I’m about to catch one of them. πŸ˜€

  42. I just came in from some errands.

    The humidity is STIFLING!!!!

    As I sit at my computer I am sweating bullets!
    It’s AWEFUL!!!!

    No watches or warnings up anywhere yet. There is a mesoscale discussion for Va
    with 40% chance of issuance.

  43. Steady rain here for about 30 minutes. Just in time to cancel our luncheon plans but there will be other days.

      1. Thanks guys. We will try again next weekend! The wayside inn was very accommodating as they do not typically reserve for the patio so I felt awful canceling.

      1. Thanks Vicki….I was on vacation for almost a couple of weeks plus busy with several other things.

        Not sure about the answer to your question. I didn’t see any lightning but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t any.

  52. Couple downpours where I am. Now the sun is out and waiting to see what happens rest of the day.

  53. I believe that substantial tongue of dry air may reduce the storm chances as we move through the day.

    The best activity may take place between dawn and noon Monday with one more shot at a late day line.

    Outta here for great weather by Tuesday, just in time for the 100th Anniversary fireworks display by my friends at Atlas down on the western side of the canal. πŸ™‚

      1. Woburn. Crazy downpours…short but incredible rainfall. Felt like my roof was going to cave in.

  55. Some rain and distant thunder rolled through. Trying to brighten again. Haven’t been out to see if there was a change in temp. Enjoy the fireworks TK. Glad the weather will cooperate.

  56. That tornado index the 0Z euro was showing, is gone on the 12Z run, except]
    for a little blip over central Ct for this PM.

    1. Awwww. We didn’t get one. And it could have washed everything down and saved cleaning for a while not to mention supplying you with a year or so of free energy πŸ˜‰

    1. I was watching that as it went over the Troy area. The warning now extends down toward Pittsfield.

  60. Possible tornado being investigated in Wolcott, CT which is just northeast of me which did damage to the field at Wolcott High School. This happened as the warm front was coming through. The thinking is an EF 0 tornado but of course NWS out of Upton, NY will have to investigate that.

      1. CT bound. MA is not likely to see much more today other than what’s in the SW part of the state now.

  63. Upton NWS office is talking about:

    Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS)

    For tonight. Hmmm

    1. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

      WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE NOW IN A STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. DRIVERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR LOW VISIBILITY AND AVOID FLOODED ROADS.

  65. Answer to Today’s 1st & 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    In diameter, the size of a typical thunderstorm is…
    A. 5 Miles
    B. 15 Miles
    C. 25 Miles
    D. 35 Miles

    The answer is B, 15 miles.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Worldwide how many thunderstorms are there at any given moment?
    A. 200
    B. 500
    C. 2000
    D. 5000

    The answer is C, 2000. Seems high to me, but OK. I went 0 for 2.

  67. It has been confirmed EF 0 tornado did touch down in Wolcott, CT. It was on the ground for 100 yards. It was a quick spin up and no tornado warning was issued.

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