The Week Ahead

338 Comments

6:41PM

This Summer’s weather could be a whole lot worse given the lack of high pressure ridging and the number of low pressure troughs coming through. We have seen temperatures not that far from normal overall, and despite some episodes of severe storms, we have not seen too much in the way of very nasty or excessively wet weather. And the coming week will be representative of the Summer up to this point – a bit of storminess, some great weather, and a lack of heat.

The stormy day will be Monday, because a low pressure area has to cut right across New England and this will bring many showers and some thunderstorms. There is a slight risk of some briefly severe storms, but widespread severe weather is unlikely as the timing of the activity will be before maximum  heating and other factors influencing severe storms and allowing them to form and sustain themselves will be mostly borderline. Nevertheless, keep an eye on current conditions during the day Monday should any severe storms develop.

The upper level trough responsible for sending Monday’s low pressure area through here is another one that is deeper than average, like the recent one, and will be hanging around the Great Lakes for a few days while slowly weakening. But dry air on the back side of the departing low Monday night will sweep into southeastern New England on Tuesday, which will be a very nice Summer day with lower humidity and mild air.

A weak area of high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday, keeping the weather fair, as the trough continues to weaken to the west and high pressure starts to build off the Atlantic Coast. This type of set-up is a fair weather one with sea breezes in coastal areas.

Later in the week expect a slow weakening of the trough to the west to continue while a slow strengthening of high pressure takes place offshore. It does not evolve into the classic summertime Bermuda High set up at this point but is enough to bring generally fair and mild to warm weather for the end of the week, though a disturbance may try to get going between these upper level systems to bring at least some cloudiness to the region by next weekend, though so far it looks largely rain-free.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouds push eastward across the region early then decrease for a while before increasing again from the southwest later. Showers/thunderstorms southwest of Boston before dawn. Areas of low clouds and fog forming as well. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, especially through midday then less so in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s coastal areas, around 80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Highs 72-79, coolest coast.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85, coolest coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Cape Cod showers? Lows 60-67. Highs 74-81, coolest coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms interior? Lows 61-68. Highs 77-84, coolest coast.

338 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Repost.

    Answer to Today’s 1st & 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    In diameter, the size of a typical thunderstorm is…
    A. 5 Miles
    B. 15 Miles
    C. 25 Miles
    D. 35 Miles

    The answer is B, 15 miles.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Worldwide how many thunderstorms are there at any given moment?
    A. 200
    B. 500
    C. 2000
    D. 5000

    The answer is C, 2000. Seems high to me, but OK. I went 0 for 2.

  4. The storms in western mass are moving south east but the storms in southern Maine are moving north east. Why is that?

    2. The Maine storms are bring driven more by the mid/upper level steering winds and now that they are largely elevated storms this becomes the rule.

      The western MA into CT storms were a small cluster of right-moving super cells, which are storms that intensify so rapidly that the apparent motion cuts across the steering wind and the storm “turns right”. You will notice once these die out, or lose their base convection (updraft feed) the remaining precipitation will move a little more to the E or even NE in the higher level winds.

  5. Thanks TK.
    For those who did not see my post on the previous blog it has been confirmed that there was an EF 0 tornado in Wolcott, CT today. It happened just before 1pm today and had winds of 85mph. This was a quick spin up with no tornado warning issued.
    Got a storm heading toward the Coventry, CT area that is showing some weak rotation and wouldn’t surprise me if there is a quick spin up there as was the case earlier in Wolcott, CT.

  9. JJ this is supposed to be the Wolcott tornado.

    Jim Cantore
    23 mins ·
    Wolcott, CT. 1pm today MT @StormTrooperJay: This says it all 4 me today…I’m still trembling after winessing this http://t.co/vTjH1waFYv

    StormTrooperJay
    ‏@StormTrooperJay
    This about says it all 4 me today…I’m still trembling after winessing this! @NWSNewYorkNY @JimCantore @DrGregForbes pic.twitter.com/cVBtkPYsV1

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtlomQUCYAAHse4.jpg

  10. Thankfully Old Salty no injuries or fatalities with this weak EF 0 Tornado in Wolcott today. We been mentioning it with the links you and I have been posting today and the past few days that there were some ingredients in place to have a spin up and we saw that happen today.

  12. A sub 1,000 mb non tropical low in late July, wow !

    All the weather map is missing is the 540 thickness on its northwest flank.

  13. what do you think the weather for williamsburgh area and also virginia beach be like? heading there wednesday on through the following friday

    1. I think this pattern is supposed to hold for the next several days, so without specifics ….

      A little cooler than normal, more 80s days than 90s.

      Some days with humidity breaks, dewpoints under 70F, maybe even well under.

      Have a great trip Matt !!

      1. thanks tom, last time we went down to virginia about 5 years ago, we were in a middle of a heat wave with 4 straight days in the 100s and upper 90s

    1. Significant Tornado Parameter (fixed layer)

      A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind difference (6BWD), 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH1), surface parcel CAPE (sbCAPE), and surface parcel LCL height (sbLCL). This version of STP mimics the original formulation presented by Thompson et al. (2003) by using fixed-layer calculations of vertical shear, and substitutes the surface lifted parcels as an alternative to the ML parcels in the “effective layer” version of STP.

      The index is formulated as follows:

      STP = (sbCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-sbLCL)/1000 m) * (SRH1/150 m2 s-2) * (6BWD/20 m s-1)

      A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

  17. This initial push of rain and storms this morning has really all but disappeared right over us. Its amazing to see really. Nothing more than just some very light isolated rain showers.

  18. Tropics ….

    GFS, multiple runs in a row now, is featuring a system in the Atlantic.

    Not strong at all.

    With the anomalous pattern, featuring a decent western Atlantic ridge, anything that develops out there would be something to be aware of.

  19. Good morning, 1st day of late summer visits, we start Fall/Aeration overseedings Aug 25th, not much in the way of showers, have a good day 🙂

  20. Decent mid summer surface low, very good dynamics, active morning warm front, high humidity in place ……

    Personally, feeling a bit concerned about the weather today and hope that New England doesnt see anything too severe.

  21. Is it just I, or am I seeing some rotation on an intensifying storm down around
    Franklin or close to there?

    1. I cant say for sure, but it certainly has that appearance on radar where the south and southwest side of the cell looks a little suspicious.

      2. Forgive me ….

        I’m assuming one color is inbound flow, the other color, the flow is in the opposite direction.

        Would you know which color is for which flow ?

        Thanks !!

        1. Green would be going toward the radar site red would be going away from the radar site.
          There COULD be brief spin up trying to happen and its possible there would not be a tornado warning as was
          the case yesterday with that EF0 tornado in Wolcott, CT

  22. Getting rather dark here in Walpole. Heavy rain shower beginning, NO thunder or lightning

  25. This storm seems to be moving right up Rt. 16

    But the rotating part seems to be moving along rt. 109 or just a wee bit
    North of there. So between rt 109 and rt 16 for sure.

    1. That is just a few miles to the north of me right now. It is extrememly dark out and its pouring buckets. Severe Thunderstorm Warning just posted for this cell but i have yet to hear any thunder or lightning.

  28. Well, its gotten the attention of Taunton, who has gone from nothing to a special weather statement to a severe thunderstorm warning on the cell in about a 5 minute timespan.

      1. Funny…anytime these things happen it’s always in my area. Like in the winter the local heavy snow bands are always over Woburn.

    2. LOL, i can just picture the guy at his desk sleeping then all of a sudden alarms are going off and phones are ringing off the hook and he jumps up and all the stuff on his desk goes flying and hes running around like a chicken with his head cut off!

  33. Wow. And wow again. A bit late with that warning. Amazing booms and downpours.

    Is all rotation gone. I couldn’t turn anything on to check here

  34. Roatation seems to have almost disappeared. I hope so.

    BIG crack of thunder! Vicious bolt of lightning.

    1. Exactly what we had OS – I had just shut down computer (no warning at that point) when we had one huge crack followed by two more. The first had to have hit something.

      I also hope rotation is gone

  35. Looks like it was 2 separate cells that have now merged and strengthened and are now sliding along the east side of Boston

  36. This may only be round one of strong to potentially severe storms. There could be round two this afternoon. Strong wind gusts and hail the primary threats although can’t rule out a weak isolated tornado as there are some ingredients in place for a quick spin up.

        1. The wind, oddly enough, will be behind the storm. It was dead calm this morning and now after that storm, the wind is strong. Low level clouds are flying along. I wonder if this increases chances for spin ups later today?

          1. I think so. But what do I know?

            I read a discussion from Upton yesterday
            where they said a Strong low level jet does
            contribute to chances of a spin up.

            We’ll have to see how much heating we get as
            the CAPE certainly contributes.

            We have many factors that could be contributing
            a bit later. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  40. Working downtown. Only heard 1 clap of thunder, but really raining hard for a few minutes; more moderate rain now.

  42. I can’t believe how DARK it is.
    This had to rank right up there as the darkest I have ever seen
    during the daytime.

    1. I was thinking the same and also why the lightning was so vivid even though it is daytime. Usually lightning is washed out in the day

  43. NWS out of Upton, NY take for today
    GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. A
    FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND
    STRENGTHENING WINDS UP THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ANY STRONGER
    UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION. AS SUCH…AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
    DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND PERHAPS A TORNADO EXISTS.

  45. Peaks of sun in Norwood now. Does the sun help to destabilize the atmosphere or does drier air win out in eastern mass?

      1. OS, what do u think about meeting up with the crew on Aug 21st? Are you in? Would be awesome to finally meet the Old Salty in person

  46. Cell about to hit Woburn. Looks almost like a little hook to the cell. Still some rotation in there on the southwest side?

    1. Honestly,

      I think the rotation is gone. I think it WAS there.

      I think we came REALLY close to a spin up or 2.
      Wonder IF one happened around the Milford, Holliston area
      earlier?

      1. OS you have been multiple times. What’s taking Taunton so long today. Hope everyone is safe in that area

  55. I am in Woburn…crushed is an understatement…garage is almost underwater. Been torrential for an hour non stop.

      1. Never seen anything like it…like buckets of rain non stop…just when you think it will end it gets worse. Bad start to vacation. Canceled going away today…everyone is bummed. Couldn’t have asked for a worse start.

    1. Just monitoring the radar, that is all.
      Have had some tutorials during TWC severe weather broadcasts.

      That one up by Lynn was exhibiting some fairly strong rotation.
      Would NOT surprise me to see reports of a tornado in that area.

      Sometimes, that rotation is aloft and never makes it to the ground.
      Sometimes, it is an indication that it is on the ground.

  58. I’m sorry, but the set up for this afternoon looks downright
    Dangerous to me. What am I missing?????

  59. 12Z NAM has CAPE of between 1,000 and 2,000 Joules between
    2 and 4 PM this afternoon.

    Waiting on the other site to check out LI and EHI.

    That’s enough instability when the other parameters are factored in.

    We shall see.

  60. If there was a tornado up there probably a weak EF 0 EF1.
    Its cloudy and drizzling where I am in CT and unless this changes I am not going to have to worry about big thunderstorms where I am.

  61. It seems that cell is weakening? I have friends in Kennebunkport and wanted to let them know if there could be a potential tornado or even severe tstorm threat. Thanks!

    OS – I was half asleep but think it was JR on 7 this morning who said the sun would fuel the storms this PM. I’m hoping it is not as bad as it looks to you right now.

    1. I don’t see any rotation on that storm at the current time. Doesn’t mean
      it can’t reoccur. Right now, it just looks like what we saw earlier, perhaps
      a wee bit less intense. Just watch it on radar.

      re: This afternoon.

      I’m concerned, but if you listen to my wife, she thinks I jump on “possible”
      events too quickly. We’ll keep watching, but yes, I think we could get
      some severe weather this afternoon.

      Matt Noyes was so concerned about today, that he cancelled a day trip
      to the Cape.

  62. From Eric Fisher…

    Eric Fisher says “Based on damage photos and radar, extremely likely that a ‪#‎tornado‬ touched down in Revere this morning.”

        3. Gotta love technology. Getting these pics and videos out there of the damage mere minutes after the storm

  63. Vicki on thunderstorm days I call sunshine self destructing sunshine since that will further destablize the atmosphere. There is plenty of instability for thunderstorm development.
    Interesting NWS out of Albany which covers my county in CT is mentioning my county for the best chance for severe weather today. Unless that sun comes out and this drizzle stops I don’t see that happening.

  64. So in Woburn…what does this afternoon hold for weather? I don’t want to leave my house if there is a risk of what happened earlier today.

    1. I’d say, stick around.
      I really think we’re in for a ROUND 2 later on.

      We shall see.

      If it does NOT materialize, you were being cautious.

      What’s the old saying, better safe than sorry?

      2. I agree OS. And JJ, i know sunshine will help to increase the chances of more storms later, but this morning proved the atmosphere is already primed. There was just little if any sunshine yesterday and this morning and we ended up with severe weather. I think we get more with or without the sun today

        1. Might send the wife and kids up (North Conway) and I could drive up later tonight so we aren’t all sitting around.

        2. The environment must be one up there with a high shear. We had that last July in CT when
          we had two EF 1 tornadoes touch down on the same day and there was no sunshine.

  65. US National Weather Service Boston MA
    5 mins ·
    NWS Meteorologists are on scene in Revere, MA investigating the possible tornado. Survey information will be made available this afternoon.

    Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    1 min ·
    RT @reverepolice: Responding to a collapsed roof and multiple possible gas leaks. If your CO alarm is going off, call 911 immediately!

    Did anyone see the InstaGram VIDEO Eric Fisher posted.

    Absolutely Awe Inspiring. Graphically shows the power of this storm.
    I can’t post it. I’ll keep trying. Perhaps the person put it on you tube. I’ll check

    I’m 99.99% certain this was a tornado!!!

    2. I saw the video OS. I could post but theres some pretty bad language on there. I dont blame her though, id be saying some pretty bad words too!

  67. VICKI,

    Storm has completely weakened to the NorthEast.
    I don’t think your friends in Maine are in any danger.

    1. That will only make an unstable atmosphere more unstable.
      Looking at those pictures that have been posted here no doubt in my mind that was a tornado touchdown. Will be interested
      to see what the rating on it is.

      1. I’m betting it is an EF2.

        Let’s see.

        With that rotation on radar, (Strongest rotation around here I have witnessed since I have been monitoring Nexrad)

        NO WAY this comes back as a Micro Burst. No Way

  69. Curious about the storms later today…I don’t see anything on radar unless it is pivoting from out west?

  73. Retweeted by Eric Fisher
    Carl Stevens @carlwbz · 17m
    The damage in revere is terrible. Residents never seen anything like They’reconvinced it was a tornado.#wbz

  74. Suns out here, judging by the blog the storms were bad, we had a 2 min downpour but went right back to work, didn’t even see lightening, picked up .12 lol

    Wonder if these afternoon storms will go poof again, any bets?

    1. Tell that to the people of Revere Charlie. And my wife who was stuck in a nasty line in Needham with cars getting stuck in flooding and trees down all around her.

      1. Some flooding in Framingham as well – haven’t had a chance to see if damage but certainly nothing that compares to the mess they are seeing in REvere. The news mentioned partial business collapse along with roofs. Not sure of accuracy. So far have not heard any injuries.

        We had 1.04 rain in a bit less than an hour

  75. Thanks Old Salty for the link. Clearly the POSSIBLE tornado in Revere was stronger than the one that hit Wolcott, CT yesterday afternoon. Hopefully no more tornado touch downs across SNE today.
    The SREF model with its tornado ingredients was spot on.

  79. I got sunshine now out where I am. Big swirl around western NY and will see what kind of thunderstorm activity we get when this swirl pivots this way.

  80. I had to run errands at 9:30am.

    When I left, it was a severe thunderstorm just west of Boston and the rotation on dopplar had, for the moment, stopped.

    What happened ?? The storm must have re-strengthened from that point …….. Did Revere get much notice ?

    1. Tom,

      Virtually none. NWS put out a warning, but I think the damage was
      done by the time it went up.

      Check a post above I made showing strong rotation. I posted BEFORE
      NWS posted a warning.

      1. Tom it lost the rotation as it came through the City, but
        then it RAPIDLY gained rotation after that. AMAZING!

    2. ok – the one who knows the least will go first so you can move to those who know more

      It seemed to me that the two cells (one over our area and one a bit later east of us) merged. Ace, JJ, OS all saw the rotation before the warning went out.

      Just my opinion – OS saw rotating in the cell before it reached here (in Franklin) and when I shut down which was when the huge booms began, there was still not warning here at all for Tstorms. It seemed to me the warnings were coming late.

  82. Sent the wife and kids to NH…going to stick around until Round 2 (if it happens). No one is happy at this point…

  84. Heading to Richmond Virginia later this week to watch joint practice, can’t wait!! Hadi have u ever been there?

  85. From Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 6m
    SkyEye showing some major structural damage in Revere.

      1. I agree based on damage reports, no weaker than EF1, but no way EF3. it’s really remarkable to get an EF2 that close to the ocean.

  88. That is no surprise with the pictures were seeing.
    12z NAM For This Afternoon
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=009&fixhh=1&hh=006

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=006&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  89. Eric Fisher says at LEAST an EF1. I still say a 2.

    Also Eric states:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 1m
    Round 2 of severe storms on the way this afternoon. In highly sheared environment, these too could feature rotation/tornado threat.

  93. Maybe this is right, maybe its wrong ….. But …..

    I think ch. 4 is back to regular programming and is usually in 3rd place in the ratings …

    How can you be back to regular programming ?????

    A tornado with decent damage has just hit a nearby town ……. What are they thinking ????

  95. Summer of 2014 is certainly interesting from a meteorological point-of-view. Remember how warm and dry it was in Western Europe in March, April, and May. Well, that’s a distant memory. My guess is July temps overall will turn out cooler than May in the Netherlands. That’s rare, even in a place that is known for its nice springs and disappointing summers. They’re having major issues with rain this month. Here are some images captured today across Holland:

    http://nos.nl/op3/artikel/680200-in-beeld-het-regent-hard-heel-hard.html

    We know about the snow (5-10cm of accumulating snow) in the Urals, which was unprecedented. That is, at the relatively low altitudes at which the snow was accumulating, accumulating snow had not been recorded in July.

    Northern Canada continues its much cooler than normal trend.

    And the upper mid-west has just been cool all spring and summer. Relentless onslaughts of cooler than normal air continue to invade Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin.

    Here it’s been a ho-hum summer, with nothing out of the ordinary. Nevertheless, I’m very curious to see the numbers posted at the end of August for the summer of 2014 across the Northern Hemisphere.

    1. I wish some of that cooler than normal air would invade SNE although I suppose it has in modified form. I would love to get away w/o a heat wave for once this summer but I can’t recall it ever happening in my lifetime. Even the summer of 2009 had at least one IIRC.

      1. The cold fronts are modified or moderated by the time they get here. We’ve seen that pattern repeat itself several times this summer. Remember the hype re: the polar vortex in July? Well, it certainly got cold/cool in the upper mid-west (they’re getting it again now), but that really didn’t impact us that much. This said, with our prevailing wind being a west-southwesterly and with temps to our west and southwest being below normal for the most part, I do think that this has dimmed the prospects of sustained heat. I’ll be up on top of Mt. Washington for 1 week volunteering. I’ll let you all know what the meteorologists are saying up there.

        1. Even with such a pattern we are actually right on average for temps. Overall i think this summer has been really good overall.

  96. I will keep posting the get together info for all to see. We are meeting 8/21 at 7:30 at JP licks at Legacy place in dedham. Anyone please join!!

    2. Thanks Hadi!
      Date’s posted in my calendar. I’m pretty sure I can make it and truly look forward to meeting y’all 🙂

  97. Current activity way to the far north and west. Big question is will it make it east or stay out there for the afternoon.

    1. I don’t know. Frankly I’m surprised it is that far out there.
      Expected any new activity to start much closer.

      We shall see.

      We had enough activity this morning anyway.

        1. Basically on a line from the Albany, NY area, through southern VT, into central NH, and then into Maine

        2. But its not really moving east, its more on a NNE path pivoting around the upper low in western NY.

      1. It’s not a silly question and we have discussed that here before.
        They do that all of the time.

        It would be so isolated that they don’t feel it is in the risk zone.

        They put the 2% out there to cover their rosy red asses. 😀

  99. Eric FisherVerified account
    ‏@ericfisher
    Per @NWSBoston – this is the 1st confirmed #tornado in Suffolk County, MA since at least 1950 (when records began). #climate

    2. This one is pretty strongly worded from the SPC:

      * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
      800 PM EDT.

      * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
      SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
      INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
      ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
      A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

  102. Severe T Storm watch has been posted for most of Massachusetts execept SE and Cape Cod.

  103. Here’s some more GRAPHIC PHOTOS from the TORNADO this morning:

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10178008_819778021389551_6173203066052167061_n.jpg?oh=da831f5002b6cd80972dda48a1c98071&oe=545513C2&__gda__=1414964136_37784f113db1e22a13a85466dce73059

    https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620/819778051389548/?type=1&theater

    https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620/819778488056171/?type=1&theater

    https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620/819778771389476/?type=1&theater

  104. What are the chances of the Hanover/Hingham Area getting there first thunderstorm since January today?

  105. here’s some more

    https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620/819778848056135/?type=1&theater

    https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620/819778771389476/?type=1&theater

    https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620/819778751389478/?type=1&theater

    https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/a.819777764722910.1073741841.216287391738620/819778718056148/?type=1&theater

  106. OK, convection beginning to fire it Central CT. First signs of Action for us.
    We’ll keep watching.

  107. Can you guys do me a favor since I am not near my laptop? Can you keep me updated by replying under here about any threats to Woburn? Thanks.

    1. Woburn is SMACK in the middle of the Severe Thunderstorm watch area.
      Check out the SREF maps I just posted.

      Buckle up and get ready for the ride.

      Something is going to happen somewhere in our area.

      Is Woburn in the cross hairs? Who knows, but it is just as vunerable
      as any other community.

  108. Latest 9Z SREF

    Significant tornado ingredients

    18Z
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f006.gif
    21Z
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f009.gif

    Significant tornado parameter 18Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    HELICITY

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014072809/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    Given this, the SPC watch and what Eric Fisher stated, I would venture that
    some place in SNE gets a tornado this afternoon. The atmosphere is PRIMED
    for it.

  110. My county is not under a severe thunderstorm watch in CT while the three other northern counties are. The sun has been out for a few hours only adding to an already unstable environment. This whole system has to pivot through and will be interesting to see how this interacts with an already unstable environment.

    1. Somewhere in SNE a tornado will drop this afternoon and It won’t necessarily be an EF0 or EF1. It could be an EF2 or worse and that is what concerns me.

      1. SREF model has been very good when picking up on these tornado ingredients. We saw the tornado in Wolcott yesterday
        and a stronger tornado hit Revere earlier today.

        1. It has been amazingly good, hasn’t it?

          I’m always concerned when the SREF signifcant tornado ingredients shows the area in a bulls eye, whether it be
          the 5% or in this case today, the 15%.

    1. Forecast for our area from the NWS:

      Detailed Forecast
      This Afternoon Partly sunny, with a high near 80. South wind around 13 mph.
      Tonight Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph.
      Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind around 8 mph.

      Not a drop of rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. SPC doesn’t feel tornadoes are the biggest threat here. With that said you can never rule out a tornado but the chance is low
      so they the SPC doesn’t feel a tornado watch is necessary.

    2. I think it is because the SPC would like to see HIGHER probabilities before issuing a watch. According to them we are in a 2% prob area. Typically
      they like to see at least 5% and sometimes higher.

      I think IF it were up to me, I’d hoist the watch, especially where we
      already had one this morning WITHOUT the benefit of the sun’s heating.

      2. And without the benefit of a warning prior to the event – or just barely prior. I’d think they’d want to be cautious. But then I think most people are a bit nervous now so will watch anyhow

  113. NYC has dewpoint in low 60s. Philly dewpoint at 60F. Both have W-SW surface winds.

    I think the radar watching has to begin in western and central CT, where the cold front must be.

    The area I think to watch is Hartford to Worcester to the Merrimack Valley, northeastward to the seacoast of NH.

    1. I think the action area sneaks into Boston. Just my thoughts.

      Not much farther East or South.

  114. From Eric Fisher

    Eric FisherVerified account
    ‏@ericfisher
    I’m in Revere…some pretty remarkable damage. Awaiting NWS survey results.

      1. Even if u dont have Twitter, u can just save his Twitter page for viewing anytime like u would any webpage. You just wont be able to comment or tweet at him. I do that all the time and i dont have a Twitter account.

    1. Unless that house was already structurally unsound (which is possible), this looks like low end EF2 damage.

  117. Looking at the pictures from what I have seen on tv and what has been posted here on the blog I would say EF 2 damage.
    No severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings as of now in SNE but they may change.

    1. JJ, I agree totally. Sure looks like EF2 damage to me.
      I am still waiting for the announcement.

  118. From Taunton NWS office:

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
    *** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

    LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT INSTABILITY…EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

  119. Ok here’s the tally.

    3 of us here, myself, JJ, and Acemaster agree that this morning’s Revere Tornado
    was an EF2. Let’s see IF we are correct. Let’s see how much we know or think we know.

    1. That is a great graphic Ace. Many thanks

      Based on that, it was Border line high end EF1 or low end Ef2.

      I’m still going with EF2, because that is what my gut says.

      On the Springfield one, many people were saying EF2, and based on what I saw I was saying EF3 and it turned out to be EF3.

      We shall see.

      1. My thoughts were the same, OS – very close to EF1/EF2 line. But they may see more damage than we do.

        I believe the Worcester tornado was eventually moved up a level at some point which is a random thought.

  122. FYI
    Matt Noyes still thinks line of Strong to severe storms march right to Boston
    later this afternoon. ?????

    1. Ahhh. Sorry
      Just realized that last one was dated in another year. I am so sorry.
      Just trying to get good stuff for us.

    2. The first link, what caught my attention is also how hard its raining !

      Here the term, rain wrapped tornado, but its always been difficult for me to kind of visualize that. No longer.

    1. he National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a

      * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for… northeastern Worcester County in central Massachusetts… northwestern Middlesex County in northeast Massachusetts… south central Hillsborough County in southern New Hampshire…

      * until 500 PM EDT

      * at 417 PM EDT…Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located over Princeton…or 7 miles southwest of Leominster…and was moving northeast at 30 mph.

      * Some locations impacted include… Lowell…Nashua…Leominster…Fitchburg…Chelmsford…Westford… Gardner…Holden…Milford…Pepperell…Tyngsborough…Groton… Lunenburg…Townsend…Littleton…Lancaster…Rutland… Sterling…Hollis and West Boylston.

      1. 3 different ones.

        I am not looking at a dopplar radar, but the cell NNW of Springfield is the one I think looks the worst.

        1. Just saw that too – the warnings span a good portion of the western 2/3 of the state from CT to NH

  127. Really heating up out there.

    I am beginning to think that Tom may be correct. The axis of activity
    may not quite get to Eastern sections, but we’ll continue to monitor.

    Btw, was just checking Harvey Leondard’s twitter account.

    Sorry, but Eric’s reporting was HANDS DOWN FAR SUPERIOR!!!

    1. and I was just about to report that the clouds here have gotten a bit more convective looking. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      A few hrs ago, they were all stratus cumulus and now the tops seem to be getting taller.

      Also, looks like a line of storms with a bit more eastward movement are on the NY State border with both MA and CT.

      1. Agree.
        They’re moving along the bottom of the upper low and thus
        have a more Easterly trajectory for now. As they move
        Eastward, the trajectory will become more Northeasterly.
        I think, anyway. 😀

  128. That storm crossing from CT into MA East of Springfield and SW of Worcester
    shows signs of rotation.

      1. Don’t know if its on the ground but the radar is picking up on rotation and enough of it to issue a tornado warning. Of course if the circulation reaches the ground it is a tornado.

  131. Eric F – thanks everyone for telling me about his twitter and how to access it

    Rotation has tightened even more on latest scan. In Spencer seek shelter now! Moving NE at 25mph

    1. I’m sure some in this current warning area must have seen what happened in Revere and though there’s nothing to assume/project from the earlier event, I’d think people must be very, very nervous.

      1. I know I would be. Just seeing the warning box made me nervous. My Uxbridge child had stopped in Milford on her way home from Hopkinton and I called and suggested she go home…..immediately but safely

      1. Oh you are all far better than good – you saw it first and you categorized it first. Way to go!

  133. Hi all!
    As you can imagine, busy day for me.
    I’m around, will be posting a bit more later!

    1. Missed you today.
      We all tried to fill in.

      Did you get over to Revere yourself? Curious.

  134. Tornado warning has expired or has been taken down.

    Waiting on the next one as I assume there will be one.

  135. Glad to see that tornado warning expired !!

    Looks like these (mini supercells ??) are ahead of a more solid line of storms in western Mass/CT, actually making more eastward progress.

    Stepping outside to cook our dinner. 🙂

  136. Don’t see the tornado warning up anymore which is good but still that area that had the tornado warning still under a severe thunderstorm warning. Hopefully nothing touch down but I would still keep an eye on that cell if I was in the warned area.

  142. When have we had to get electric wires from the pole to our house? That’s what they told people in revere.

  143. It was an ef2 that dropped back to an Ef1. Wind speed measured at 120. That’s what wbz radio is saying frow NWS. So ef2 to start than fell back to ef1.

  144. wow, i had the best seats on the 12 floor ellison mass general, i was delivering mail, looked outside the window and it was pretty much dark outside. looking right towards revere. Did not see a tornado probably because of all the rain that was falling but i saw how fast those clouds were moving. They were booking it. saw lightning as well.
    When i went home. i was on the train, when we got off at north billeria station, saw the dark clouds to the west. next thing we knew, lightning,thunder and lots of wind, no rain at first then the rain came, clouds were booking it then as well. and then it rained and there was sun shining. Great weather day 😀

    1. also the fact that the storm at north billerica , the darker clouds were moving around a center location but the rotation of the clouds were not throughout.

  147. Well, thats all folks. We get a tornado when theres no watch at all, and we get next to nothing when the whole area is under a watch. Gotta love NE! Ok another note, my heart goes out to everyone affected by the tornado

  149. Last shower just coming through. No thunder or lightning.
    NO ROTATION. 😀

    That’s all folks.

    1. Good perspective Tom. And phew. Not to diminish the awful destruction in revere but if it had hit Boston…..

      1. Well, the story on the post above is ……

        I was watching the Red Sox and as usual this season, they are losing.

        So, I briefly changed to the weather channel, which has a show on right now about “what would happen is a tornado touched down in Miami Beach, FL”.

        And it got me thinking, how close is Revere to Boston and so, I googled ………

        1. Good thinking and it really is scary. Youngest asked me relation of Boston and revere earlier and liked your post too

  151. We had a little league game in Barre tonight. The game started at 5:30. At 5:40 the rain started. At 5:45 there was nearby lightning.

    They called the game for 15 minutes. By then the rain stopped and they tried to clean up the field. Just as they had the field ready, another downpour started and ended the game.

    1. Isn’t barre right around where the tornado threat was quite real for spencer ? Glad you are ok. And I’d love to watch a little league game around here. We really enjoy the little league World Series.

  152. 1st official day of football practice at na and other schools, I was at na talking with coaches, humidity has decreased and it’s breezy, nice night for football, goodnight all 🙂

  153. I did not go to Revere. I figured I’d stay out of the area that was already congested enough with crews / reporters / etc.

    A friend of mine was with the NWS though during the survey.

    Just relaxing a bit now but going to update the blog shortly. 🙂

    1. It was amazing, absolutely amazing. I watched that go through.
      It didn’t look right to me. It looked like something was up.

      Sure was.

      I still can’t believe how SLOW the NWS was to issue a WARNING!

      Too slow in my opinion.

      1. There was what appeared to be some back peddling on 4 tonight. Don’t know who introduced Eric but he and Eric had a conversation about how there was no warning. I’m paraphrasing and I understand that it is management driven but even mac thought it was obvious.

        A warning should have been issued even here earlier and certainly in revere. If nothing else I hope they learn and don’t make excuses

        1. I should add that mac thought it was obvious perhaps because he listened to me rant all day about it 🙂

        1. Damn! wrong one. This was earlier.
          I don’t think I saved an image of the rotation at Revere.

          OH Crap!

          1. But you saw rotation in the same cell in Franklin. Even if it died down you knew to watch it. Nws….not so much. Why?

          2. Well there SHOULD have been at warning
            at this point as well. I think this is what you
            alluded to.

      1. Vicki, I just checked the posts. ABout 10 full minutes.

        The NWS warning was WAY TOO LATE!!!

        I saw strong rotation at 9:37 and posted it.
        NWS posted warning about 9:47, however, not sure how
        long the delay was to get to the watches and warning site I
        was viewing. Here is the site:

        http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

        1. Here is what I just posted for friends and relatives:

          For any weather fans out there. Here is an image of the NEXRAD radial velocity radar showing the rotation of the Revere tornado. I have circled the rotation where the Blues and greens are echoes moving toward the radar and the oranges are moving away from the radar. It was officially rated an EF2. http://i.imgur.com/yqRWy0g.png

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