Quieter Times

112 Comments

10:30PM

Eventful weather Monday. You know all about it by now, so we won’t spend any time going there on the discussion here, however feel free to continue to talk about it in the comments!

Now it’s time to look ahead. And first we have drier air sweeping in behind departing low pressure, that will make a very pleasant Tuesday. Narrow high pressure will hold its ground between a frontal boundary offshore in a trough to the west Wednesday through Friday with fair weather resulting, again with the lack of heat. By the weekend, we may see a squeeze-play as the front offshore tries to back westward and the trough to the west tries to push eastward, resulting in at least more cloudiness. It’s unclear this far in advance if any wet weather will become involved. High pressure may strengthen somewhat by early next week with a more typical feel of early August.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers mainly far NW of Boston through midnight, then clearing. Drier. Lows 55-63, coolest NW suburbs of Boston through interior southern NH. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-63, coolest interior valleys. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 80, cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of showers Cape Cod. Low 63. High 80, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of showers interior MA/NH. Low 64. High 82, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 84, cooler South Coast.

112 thoughts on “Quieter Times”

  1. Thanks TK. A re-post from me.

    Old Salty says:
    July 28, 2014 at 10:34 PM
    Here is what I just posted for friends and relatives:

    For any weather fans out there. Here is an image of the NEXRAD radial velocity radar showing the rotation of the Revere tornado. I have circled the rotation where the Blues and greens are echoes moving toward the radar and the oranges are moving away from the radar. It was officially rated an EF2. http://i.imgur.com/yqRWy0g.png

  2. Just learned that the maximum width was 3/8 mile and the path length was
    2 miles. EF2 with winds estimated at 120 mph.

  3. A bit of a rarity to have a 2 mile path of an EF2 so close to the coast, but it all came together just right to make it happen.

    1. It was something that’s for sure.
      I’m so happy, as weather enthusiasts,we have NEXRAD to view!

      NWS was truly SLOW in issuing that warning. That rotation was readily apparent to us amateurs, why oh why were they so slow?

      Oh I know, they were still drinking their morning coffee. Shame on them.

    2. I can’t ever remember it being so DARK during daylight hours.
      Truly Amazing. Quite a memorable storm to say the least!

      1. It was quite dark even here on the western side of the storm (I viewed it from Reading and my son from here in Woburn).

        I noticed that there was clearly some rotation in the storm and I am surprised a warning was not issued about 20 minutes earlier. I think there was enough evidence to issue one.

        I’m not going to trash the NWS, but in my opinion it could have been handled better.

        1. Thanks TK and I agree. They have been quick to warn on severe weather this season but slow on this one.

  4. Thanks tk 🙂

    Picked up some much needed rain, about a half inch here, but no severe weather, my wife was in the seaport district and she said she saw out her window it looked like it was raining heavy, but didn’t think anything about it until lunchtime when a coworker mentioned something about damage from a storm and she was shocked! I was actually working and just waited for it to pass here, then went back to work, but when I checked back here later this morning I was also shocked to hear about it. Why didn’t the sportsradio or radio say anything? Goodnight everyone! Thanks tk 🙂

  7. Thank you TK. Thanks for the link OS

    Al Roker just said it started as a water spout and moved on land as a tornado. Is that accurate?

      1. I thought it sounded wrong – especially since you all tracked the cell with the rotation. What an odd thing to say on national tv

        1. I do NOT believe that AL, seems like a really nice guy,
          is a meteorologist (else he would NEVER say that), but
          rather just a reporter. I could be wrong.

          Note this:

          Albert Lincoln “Al” Roker, Jr. (born August 20, 1954) is an American television weather presenter, actor and book author. NOTE: Presenter

          However look here and it is not totally clear, but perhaps he is, indeed, a met

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Roker

          No excuse for saying that.

            1. You got me.

              I don’t think one can obtain and AMS
              seal WITHOUT being a full fledged met.

              Perhaps TK knows?

  8. re: Tropical System out there in the Atlantic
    Some Model Prognostications

    CMC valid Friday 8PM, August 7th

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Roker

    GFS same time

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Euro, he he he

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    GFDL 21Z August 3

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2014072906-invest93l/slp21.png

    Something to watch. See IF it makes it or not. We are certainly just about into
    the Cape Verde season.

      1. No matter what with this, it certainly appears by all models
        to be traveling into a very dangerous location for us.

        If it “should” intensify and one of these Conus troughs is in the right location, it could get dicey in these parts.

        All we can do is watch at this point.

        1. We are very vulnerable for tropical systems given this deep tough pattern in the east. If the tropics get active, we are in for a dicey late summer/fall

  10. Speaking of late summer/fall, this morning felt like one of those mornings! Cool fresh air 🙂

  11. The windshield wiper photo has become quite the source of debate when in fact it’s a no brainer.

  13. Some of those photos are unbelievable! If you didn’t know, you would think these were scenes from tornado damage from down south. Not something you see a few miles from Boston

    1. Agree totally. Truly amazing. And oh so close.

      That could have been at my house or Hadi’s house just as easily
      as it was Revere!!!

      As it is it was perhaps 10-12 miles away. A bit too close for comfort!!

      I just didn’t look right as it blew by my office. I was well within the storm, but
      more to the Southern end of it. I could see the quadrant of the storm
      where the tornado formed and it looked suspicious to me. I mentioned last night, I thought I viewed a wall cloud beginning to rotate, BUT
      I figured that I was just “seeing” what I wanted to see. 😀

  14. So …….

    Most of this summer, we’ve had this unusual meridional flow to the jet stream.

    Its got the monsoonal moisture in the SW US displaced further westbound to the beaches of California, where they have evidently been having thunderstorms. A lightning strike killed a young man and injured many others recently.

    Instead of the jet stream being further north in southern Canada, we have vigorous jet stream disturbances cutting across the US in the heart of summer.

    Only facts. Not hypothesizing any causes, everyone can have their own theories. Or maybe there is nothing to ponder.

  16. Hmmmm windshield wipers?

    And ALS comment prompts me to ask if a waterspout can hit land as a tornado and if so is it common?

    1. Vicki,

      That gets really tricky.

      Waterspouts are typically far less violent than a true tornado.
      Often times water spouts form WITHOUT the benefit of a severe thunderstorm.

      In the true sense, they are different animals.

      Yet I have seen in writing that a waterspout is a tornado over water.
      Well, yes and no. Would you call a land spout a tornado? A dust devil?

      IMHO, the only time a waterspout over water is a tornado is IF
      it formed as a true tornado over water.

      And so the argument goes on and on and on.

      1. Waterspouts fall into two categories: fair weather waterspouts and tornadic waterspouts.

        Tornadic waterspouts are tornadoes that form over water, or move from land to water. They have the same characteristics as a land tornado. They are associated with severe thunderstorms, and are often accompanied by high winds and seas, large hail, and frequent dangerous lightning.

        Fair weather waterspouts usually form along the dark flat base of a line of developing cumulus clouds. This type of waterspout is generally not associated with thunderstorms. While tornadic waterspouts develop downward in a thunderstorm, a fair weather waterspout develops on the surface of the water and works its way upward. By the time the funnel is visible, a fair weather waterspout is near maturity. Fair weather waterspouts form in light wind conditions so they normally move very little.

        If a waterspout moves onshore, the National Weather Service issues a tornado warning, as some of them can cause significant damage and injuries to people. Typically, fair weather waterspouts dissipate rapidly when they make landfall, and rarely penetrate far inland.

        1. Wonderful info, OS. Thank you. A great education as well. Most interesting is that they form in different directions.

  19. If there’s an eastern US trof most of the summer, I think it only fair to be an eastern US ridge this coming winter.

    Ah, 40s and 50s Dec-Feb and NO snow days. 🙂 🙂

    3. Keep dreaming Mr. Tom.❄️❄️❄️ Maybe bc the south shore has been missed on many storms this summer the reverse will happen in winter

      1. Well according to tk he is seeing signs of that this winter . He has said it a few times this summer .

    4. bite your tongue Mr , it better be cold and snowy no 50s and 60s in january or febuary 😀

        1. The Euro just ain’t what she used to be.
          What a shame!

          I sure DO hope it is WRONG.

          I plan to be fishing all day!

    2. Hadi, you just ruined my day! Frankly I hadn’t even looked at the weekend.
      Still going by Eric’s good forecast last night for the weekend. 😀

    1. Ok change that. Click on a New England state to view.
      This is cool stuff from the SPC. It shows the average significant tornado
      parameter for the event, the helicity and Cape etc. Really great stuff

  22. Dear Old Salty, you had me frightened yesterday with your words about Woburn:

    Woburn is SMACK in the middle of the Severe Thunderstorm watch area.
    Check out the SREF maps I just posted.

    Buckle up and get ready for the ride.

    Something is going to happen somewhere in our area.

    Is Woburn in the cross hairs? Who knows, but it is just as vunerable
    as any other community

    I don’t post often (read every day), but I wanted to say that this was a very strong remark. Woburn is in Eastern Middlesex (but not North Eastern Middlesex). I watched this online all day from work and then again at home on the Weather Channel. Yes, they were predicting possible severe thunderstorms in North Eastern Middlesex, but Woburn is only 20 miles from Boston and not closer to New Hampshire. I had to travel from Boston to Boston last night, and I was holding my breath the whole time, waiting for the sky to turn black. Please try not to frighten me so badly again! Thanks, Linda

    1. You asked the question. Sorry if I frightened you.

      BUT we had a sheared environment and with an actual Severe Thunderstorm
      watch out (That contained tornado wording) and Woburn was WELL within that watch area, I was giving it to you straight.

      We were all very fortunate that nothing else serious happened yesterday afternoon and evening as it sure looked ominous and conditions were ripe
      for something awful to happen.

      It was bad enough in the morning.

      Please understand that when you ask that question here, Unless you get a response from TK or JMA, it is coming from weather enthusiasts and NOT professional Meteorologists. You are simply getting our opinions and thoughts.

      Again, I am sorry if I frightened you. Seriously, I don’t usually post something like that unless I am truly concerned.

      1. Hi again. No, I didn’t ask the question. It was another blogger from Woburn. But thanks for your response. I did calm myself down by thinking that you are a great enthusiast, but not a meteorologist. As I said before, the Weather Channel was cranking the names of towns involved in the afternoon/evening warming, and Woburn was not one of them. Thankfully, we all got a break last night, which I am thankful for.

        1. The question did NOT ask about warnings, but rather
          what could be expected. Big difference. 😀

          1. Here was the question. Sorry If I am sounding defensive. Perhaps I am.

            WeatherWiz says:
            July 28, 2014 at 2:41 PM
            Can you guys do me a favor since I am not near my laptop? Can you keep me updated by replying under here about any threats to Woburn? Thanks.

            A severe thunderstorm watch, that clearly included Woburn, qualifies as a threat. 😀

      2. And if you don’t believe:

        Again, I am sorry if I frightened you. Seriously, I don’t usually post something like that unless I am truly concerned.

        Check with longtime blog members. 😀

    2. All the information oldsalty posts is by far superior. Infact he and JJ nailed I mean nailed yesterday’s tornado, well done indeed . It was by no means a scare tactic it was what he saw. Oldsalty is one of the best forcasters on here with others . Keep up the good work oldsalty and keeping us informed.

      2. John, you are most kind and many thanks.

        However, let’s be honest, we are weather enthusiasts not professional Meteorologists. I certainly hope that other bloggers, especially any new bloggers understand that.

        This is not a Meteorologist’s blog. Of course TK and JMA are
        professional Meteorologists and we absolutely enjoy their being here offering input and especially TK hosting this wonderful blog. But they are the only 2 that I am aware of. 😀

        1. Oldsalty just stop it there. I’m sorry but that post just didn’t sit well with me by Linda calling a scare tactic . Please keep it coming and with all the knowledge you have your better than some of the tv mets out there. But nobody compares to my Harvey lol .

          1. Hi, John, there are quite a few posts here since I left work, so I will answer yours. I don’t think I “called a scare tactic.” I was monitoring every weather outlet I could find yesterday. Of course I knew about the terrible impact on Revere and the problem of the loaded atmosphere, which could set off severe storms. I wrote to Old Salty to tell him that I was frightened yesterday after he wrote to someone else about Woburn possibly being “in the crosshairs.” I believe he told a blogger from Woburn to postpone his vacation and watch over his house (to be safe). He also said that he was trying not to be so frightened himself, and that his wife tells him he sometimes overdoes it. Given all of this, I had a long commute home — to Woburn — and had to drive from there, so the words Old Salty used frightened me. This is all I said to him, and he answered me immediately that he was sorry he frightened me, but on the other hand, he believed what he said to be true. So we had a conversation, as I see it, and simply agreed to disagree. That is what adults do. No harsh words, no putting down, just being civil and saying what we feel. I know you are a great friend of Old Salty, so you thought you should jump to his defense. But there is nothing to defend, because I did not say anything critical, and hope I treated Old Salty with the civility and respect that all human beings deserve. I’m not actually a newbie, as I have read this blog for years — all year, not just in winter. But I’ll just go back to reading if anyone takes offense, and especially Old Salty, where no offense was meant.

            1. Linda,

              Being in the middle of a Severe Watch
              is not the same as saying in the cross hairs.
              I further stated that Woburn was as vulnerable as any other community in the area.

              1. Hi, Old Salty, you said, “Woburn is SMACK in the middle of the severe thunderstorm area. Buckle up and get ready for the ride.” I just said that that frightened me. What else can I say? I had several more hours of work before I went back to SMACK in the middle of this frightening mess. I live alone and had to get home by myself. I was worried about other family members in Woburn. You don’t have to keep explaining what you said. It’s all in yesterday’s posts. I am truly sorry if I hurt your feelings. You have every right to say whatever you feel. I was just expressing what I felt. Thanks for listening.

                1. Linda can you tell me what time OS said Woburn was smack in the middle. I looked quickly and am curious to see the context. Tx

            2. I’m just wondering if your the same Linda that bashed are good friend here arod. If not my mistake.

              1. Hi, John, to my knowledge, I have never “bashed” anyone, including your good friend Arod. You may wish to continue arguing with me, but I have no wish to argue with you, or anyone.

  23. After reading above, I’d like to offer high praise for OS and understanding of Linda’s comment.

    OS …….. your analysis, including early analysis was brilliant yesterday ! I have always found your words to be well measured and with 100% good intent.

    Perhaps Linda’s feedback can be a positive reminder to all in how posts can be interpreted different from perhaps …… how they were intended.

      1. Just keeping posting the same as always OS! Your posts have been nothing but informative. I can’t recall ever you posting anything even remotely inappropriate here to best of my memory. 🙂

        1. I ain’t changing. I may measure my words even a bit more than I already do, but it will be like Prego! It WILL be in there. 😀

  24. The last tornado that touched down near Boston was in August 1972 at the Longwood Tennis Club in Brookline which killed a young girl and injured six others.

    1. My bet is that OS remembers it like it was yesterday. I myself was ready to start Junior High that summer of 1972. 😉

      2. I’ll go you one better. I WITNESSED IT!!!!!

        It was awe inspiring as I viewed it from a distance, but view it I did.

      3. Btw, I was extra surprised, because I was riding my bicyle home from work and it barely rained. I came down Newbury Street and was crossing MASS ave over the MA turnpike and Lo and BeHOLD, this big dark grey spinning column off in the distance to the WSW. I watched it for several minutes as it was barreling down rt. 9 in Chestnut hill, then Brookline. It didn’t rope out, but rather just spun itself back up into the clouds. AWESOME!

      4. Here’s a photo from the Brookline Police

        https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/t31.0-8/p843x403/10428276_750860944935956_8382815329412887778_o.jpg

        Witnesses

        on Hite PERMALINK
        June 2, 2011, 10:26 AM
        0 0 Rate This

        Yes. It came down Rt. 9 from the west, went over Hammond Pond, and through the parking lot behind Filene’s and Star Market, then over the Longwood Cricket Club where it picked up and destroyed a small shed, where a great kid, Cindy Cox, had hidden from the rain, killing her, and then down Middlesex Rd, where it dissipated. We had one broken window where I lived, on Hammond St.

        Allstonian PERMALINK
        June 2, 2011, 3:33 PM
        0 0 Rate This

        I remember this event all too well; I was sitting at the Chestnut Hill T stop after work at the Mall, waiting to head home. It missed me by a couple of hundred feet. I was 14. I heard it, felt the pressure changes, but had no idea what’d happened, until I got home.

        CMoore PERMALINK
        June 2, 2011, 5:38 PM
        0 0 Rate This

        Yes, I clearly remember it. On our way to Brookline from Newton Upper Falls, the sky turned dark and there was a black funnel. We missed it, but saw the devastation at the Longwood Country Club hours later 🙁 I was also wondering who else remembered it. I ‘googled’ it but never came up with much.

        Jellystick PERMALINK
        June 6, 2011, 3:02 PM
        0 0 Rate This

        I remember this tornado. My mother saw it as she was coming down
        Route 9( from Newton and saw it turn down Hammond St.

        Read more: http://blogs.wickedlocal.com/brookline/2011/06/01/brooklines-twister-history/#ixzz38u22RwfO
        Follow us: @WickedLocal on Twitter | 119311408344 on Facebook

        1. This should have gone with the photo above:

          August 9, 1972: Damage to the streets in the Chestnut Hill section of Brookline followed a tornado which hit the area in the late afternoon

  25. And of course I feel the need to weigh in

    OS I have said here multiple times that you have caught serious weather situations before nws. Yesterday was just another example. There have been several times your expertise has prompted me to call my kids and have them move from an area or return home. Each time you were correct. Please do not change one thing

    Linda, you have every right to express your view IMHO. This is an open blog and your view is valuable. To me, safe is better than sorry. But that is me and we are all different. Maybe you didnt have access to a computer yesterday to ask OS to clarify. He always does. And I know if he understood you were scared he would have made sure to explain. I would bet everything I have that OSs intent is to keep all safe and never to scare.

    1. Thank you Vicki. And 100% correct. I try to inform, not scare, however, If
      I am concerned, I do let that come out in a post. 😀
      And I think that is perfectly fine.

      I am sorry that Linda felt that way.

      I certainly didn’t tell anyone to stay home. I was asked for advice.
      My advice was to err on the side of caution, that is all.

        1. Hi, Vicki, I tried to reply to you above, but there was no reply button. The time was 2:45.

          1. Thanks. I needed to see the context. You left out a very important word. Watch. And a watch is far different from a warning and far less severe. He was replying to a request by WW to keep him posted re Woburn threats.

            I wonder if you go back and read all of OSs comments as the comments around them, you might see the context. For instance he said his wife said he jumps on potential and not overdoes. I suspect all of our spouses would say the same. Ask Tom about storm damage :).

            Either way it is always good to voice opinions.

            1. Adding that I agree with Tom…your input is valuable in reminding us how differently comments can be interpreted. It is the risky side of blogging rather than person to person discussion

            2. Hi, Vickie, thanks for reading so carefully. When I first wrote to OS today, at 4:32, I quoted his whole post and used the word “watch.” You know, this has worn me out and I am heading to bed. I will just say once more that Old Salty’s wording yesterday frightened me. That’s all there is to it, really. I didn’t mean to demean or hurt him. If he had said this about the town you live in, or the towns your grandchildren live in, “buckle up” or whatever, perhaps your heart might have skipped a beat, too. I am going to stop writing, or maybe just stop reading. What are we protecting, somebody’s honor? This is a weather blog, and I expressed how I felt yesterday, right after a tornado a few miles from my office, on the 46th floor, which was scary beyond belief. Someone here expressed that it was a “great weather day.” I just don’t see it that way. But thanks for listening and trying to see my point of view.

              1. That is an easy question. Thanks to OS my kids and grands have been moved from risky areas multiple times. His honor doesn’t need protecting. It is above reproach IMHO. I do understand your concern and agree it is time to let it go. I hope you won’t decide to stop posting or reading and I hope you have a good sleep 🙂

  27. Vicki you asked above about smack In the middle
    I said that Woburn was smack in the middle
    Of a severe thunder storm watch.

    1. :). I just posted as I saw that once Linda told me the time. It was an absolutely accurate comment and what I would want you to tell me if I were WW asking for updates

  28. Another beautiful night!! Patriots training camp in the morning, afternoon work. Goodnight 🙂

            1. I agree, the fed aid threshold is too high. It should be done on a state by state basis based on how much the state can afford. Anything beyond that should be supplemented by the fed gov’t

              1. City by city would be difficult but if the damage were in one of the wealthier towns it would probably meet the threshold.

  30. Eric Fisher’s blog is outstanding tonight. He agrees, NWS was too slow in issuing a tornado warning

          1. Thanks Tom. Found it and it is excellent. Thank you ace. I was also surprised by his comment we have a 2-3 average tornado a year.

    1. No. Slight risk isolated PM showers/t-storms, but most areas dry.
      Sunday may end up wetter in a more widespread way but this is uncertain.

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