Weekend Update (Part 2)

55 Comments

2:51AM

Brief update for now with a full discussion to be posted this evening with The Week Ahead.

Minor change for today – more showers further northwestern than expected, so a little on the wet side this morning, and less so this afternoon.

Approaching trough from the west and still a weakness in the pressure field along the coast will keep the risk of unsettled weather going for much of the coming week through Thursday, but shower activity will just be isolated to scattered with no long-lasting rain. Tropical Storm Bertha will move from the north central Caribbean into the eastern Bahamas today, then curve north to northeast between Bermuda and the US East Coast by the middle of the coming week. This path will keep the wind/rain from the storm well offshore but may increase surf and rip currents at the beaches by later in the week.

Low pressure trough may be slow to leave so some clouds and a shower may hang around even on Friday. High pressure should arrive by the start of next weekend with some nice weather!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Limited sun – lots of clouds. Episodes of showers, possible in any areas this morning but favoring southeastern areas overall through the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 80.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 58. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

55 thoughts on “Weekend Update (Part 2)”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. Much in agreement with BB by the way. BB did say that cooler front might cut down on humidity later this week.

  4. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Yesterday’s sunset in Barrow, Alaska was the first since…
    A. March 21st
    B. May 10th
    C. June 21st
    D. July 10th

    Answer later today. By the way … just as an FYI … the sun will set at about 1:30 PM in Barrow on November 18th and I think it is a number of months before it rises again.

  8. A bit of a curve ball this morning with that rain surviving more solidly into southern New England than I gave it a chance to do…

    Made an adjustment.

  9. Yes I’ve received some (friendly) criticism this morning about missing the scope of the rain. What it does illustrate is something that NWS talked about in their discussion yesterday. All models, INCLUDING the “great” short range ones, have a very difficult time placing areas of rain in a situation with lots of tropical moisture available but weak pressure gradient and very little forcing. They just cannot handle it well.

    Yesterday, they had much more rain further west and north, including last night. I chose to ignore it and go drier and it worked out well for me.

    For this morning they had virtually nothing except areas of showers over CC / Islands and I chose to go with it, and it did NOT work out well for me. I did this despite seeing radar trends upstream that worried me about more rain, but I guess the old habit to trust the model won out, and I lost out.

    I should have known. I used radar trends as a basis for ignoring the guidance for last night. It’s like taking 2 shots at the same target, hitting a bullseye with shot #1, and missing the target with shot #2. 😉

    1. You did fine. I fished this morning, didn’t even notice the tiny bit of rain that
      was falling. It was a NON-EVENT. Didn’t even rain as far as I’m concerned. 😀

          1. How was the fishing? I thought of you when I went over the Sudbury yesterday. It moved way up its banks with Fridays rain. I know the Charles isn’t as low but wondered if it were higher as well

  10. Again we are splitting to up rights here in Hanover, Rain north and south but dry here. We have received .25″ since July 17th, with all of it coming in the last 30 hours. We received just under 4″ in July with that most of the falling on the 4th and 16th.

    1. Amazing how Summer can be.
      And just the other day over 4 inches of rain fell from that training echo near Framingham.

          1. It is doing well. I’ve Been watering it at night. The front and side yards are not sprinkled and need the help.

      2. Training echo. Interesting. Will have to look that up. Thanks TK. I have yet to measure a bucket on the deck. I’d left it out to dry. So much for that plan

        1. Like all the car pieces of the train, that as the train moves, go over the exact same part of the track.

          Showers, storms lined up one after another and each individual shower, storm travels in the exact same direction, over the exact same towns.

          1. Thank you Tom. I had heard training but wasn’t sure what echo meant. Is that just the complete term?

  11. Thanks TK !

    If I recall a post from yours (TK) earlier, it seems you and BB have a very early, (very different !!!) take on what next winter might bring.

    Nothing changes on the BZ blog, another obnoxious comment to a great blog.

      1. Paraphrasing ….

        “early indicators suggest a chance at next winter being more harsh than last winter”

        I know we talked ad nauseum late last winter about actually how cold it was last winter.

        Given the many recent winters, comparatively ….. I thought last winter was rather cold.

        So, a potential for something to be even harsher than last winter grabs my attention.

        1. I believe DT was indicating a possible snowy winter for the east coast given the summer of 2009 analog which is almost identical to this summer. The following winter was very cold and snowy for the east coast. He said to watch for that analog to continue into the fall. If we have a cool and wet fall, watch out.

  12. Unless by harsher he means maybe snow because last winter was very cold to me. I personally think its way to early for any of the mets to say what they might think of this upcoming winter and that’s why I questioned tk when he posted his thoughts in early July thinking we could be in for not much snow. Either way it will be here before you know it unfortunately. So lousy how the summer goes by so fast and winter just goes on and on. There is so much more to do when the weather is warmer and I also believe people seem to be happier and more relaxed.

  13. I don’t agree with DT at all on this one. This is nothing like Summer 2009. Nothing. At least as far as this area goes.

    Unless you really love hot/humid weather, so far it’s been one of the nicest Summers in a long time.

    June & July were COLD & WET in 2009. In 2014, the temps were around or slightly above normal in Boston most of those 2 months.

    No comparison.

    1. I agree, our weather in NE this summer is far different from that summer. I think he was more talking about the general CONUS upper air pattern being similar.

      1. Must have been. Because regardless of anyone’s opinion on him he does generally know quite a bit about patterns.

  15. Interesting….
    Fishing this morning in The Charles River (several locations) I found the water
    levels to be surprisingly low. And I do mean low. One of my favorite locations
    for Large Mouth Bass was too low to hold any fish. Not sure where they went.
    I had other locations to fish, but this one was a no go.

    Didn’t catch a single bass. Oh well. Next time. 😀

    1. Oops. I didn’t see this. As I typed above I wondered if the Sudbury is higher here simply because rain was mostly right here. On Friday morning when I was at same spot mentioned above it was mostly mud flats. And that is odd OS since last year the Charles was not low when the Sudbury was

      2. I hadn’t see it before, but it can’t be from the 60s as they were
        much younger then. 😀

  17. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Yesterday’s sunset in Barrow, Alaska was the first since…
    A. March 21st
    B. May 10th
    C. June 21st
    D. July 10th

    The answer is B, May 10th.

    1. Thank you Lomgshot. I wasn’t sure whether I should disqualify myself as I read about it on HuffPo yesterday or day before

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