The Week Ahead

58 Comments

8:12PM

Well here we are at the end of the first weekend of August. Summer’s rolling along and whether you like heat or not, I bet you are wondering why we haven’t had any prolonged spells of heat. It’s just not the pattern this year. The various atmospheric indices have combined and conspired to produce a southward-displaced jet stream and frequent troughs dropping from Canada into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, or Northeast. This has kept heat in check. This same general pattern will continue into the middle of August. But pulling back a bit it’s time to look at the upcoming 7 days for the weather systems and resultant weather during this time.

We’ll continue to have that old frontal boundary sitting offshore early in the week, and a broad but weak trough of low pressure traversing the Northeast from west to east. It will take 4 days (through Thursday) to do this, so there will be daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though it certainly will not rain much of the time, and some nice weather will also take place. By the time we get to Friday, the trough should be exiting to the east and a push of dry, cooler air will arrive. This sets up what looks at this time to be a great weekend as high pressure dominates. Again there is no major heat in sight.

Also, Tropical Storm Bertha will be taking a track between the US East Coast and Bermuda, passing well southeast of New England about midweek. The only impact will be some increased surf and rip current risks later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog.Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible morning-midday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 72-79 South Coast, southeastern MA, and East Coast beaches, 79-85 elsewhere. Wind mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Lows 60-66. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible mid to late afternoon. Highs 70s Cape Cod and coastal areas, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to general showers/thunderstorms especially late. Low 65. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Pop up afternoon showers. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 78.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

58 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Thanks TK.
    I am loving the pattern this summer with no prolonged heat and humidity and I am saving on my electric bill not having to run the AC to much this summer compared to last.

    18z GFS still aggressive with CAPE and Lift For Tuesday. I am not buying it but will watch it just in case the GFS is right.
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=054

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=LI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    1. It is good to save on the electric with the a/c running less. I still have the pool to run but better than running both daily . I’m still hoping for at least one heat wave in August. It would be awesome to have a hot Labor Day weekend as usually it seems to be on the cool side.

      1. I have a feeling there will be a heat wave sometime this month. We have had one so far this summer in inland CT that
        lasted 3 days the beginning of July. The shoreline has not had a heat wave yet and I believe where the records are
        kept on the shoreline it has only reached 90 twice this summer.

  6. Nothing earth shattering, but the latest recon plane in Bertha has a small pressure drop (1,007 mb vs 1,012 mb) and some flight level winds getting towards 50 kts.

  10. Should be a decent day today. I know it’s Monday but the weekend is looking great just like tk had in the week ahead.

  14. Good morning. It is a big birthday day. Rainshine – happy birthday!!! TK – a very happy birthday to your dad.

    I hope I didn’t miss anyone’s !

        1. Ooops – put in wrong place. Meant to reply under Vicki and to reply to Tom.

          Thank you Tom and Vicki!

  15. Roofers have been here for over an hour. I can’t believe the NOISE these guys can make!
    With my luck they’ll just get the old roof off and it will pour buckets! I’m on radar patrol. 😀

    1. Good luck OS! It will be nice to have it done and that may be the only part that makes you feel somewhat better about the high cost of roof replacement. Ugh

      1. True, but not happy about any of it. The cost, the inconvenience and most especially the noise! It sounds like the roof is about to explode.

        1. Make sure they dont take ur gutters off and leave them off until tomorrow! Happened to me last year, they took the gutters off and didnt put them back on at the end of the day, then we got a thunderstorm and it partially flooded my basement!

    1. Arthur was forecast to remain well offshore as well, but with each model run it started coming closer and closer.

      1. I don’t see it happening this time. That trough seems awfully strong and it really looks destined to push Bertha off shore.

  24. 84.2 here now. Much warmer than I anticipated. feels pretty warm.

    Dew point 65 at the airport (east Wind) , but 62 at Blue Hill and Norwood. (West Wind)

  25. NWS highlighting the region in the hazardous weather outlook for Wednesday for a few strong to severe storms with heavy rain and hail the main concerns.

  27. Looks like a strong tropical storm forecast to hit the big island of Hawaii head on by end of the week

  31. Arrived home to small tree laying on top of the roof to my new shed. Was it windy here today Tom .

    1. No John, I dont recall anything windy. I think it was 10-15 mph at most, much of the time probably less than that.

      Hope the new shed is not too damaged !

  32. The most minimum pressure on Bertha has been 998 mb.

    I have seen on the recon plane max flight level winds at 81 and 86 knots.

    But, the 998mb pressure and the satellite presentation make me wonder if Bertha has really ever been a hurricane ? And usually, I dont think the surface ever realizes the winds measured at flight level. I think its usually about 80% or so.

    Just wonder if in the future, it may be reclassified in this time frame as a tropical storm.

  33. Conversely …..

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09E/imagery/vis-animated.gif

    Since its presently not harming anyone, this Hurricane, Iselle, has been a pleasure to watch. Its been fairly long lived and has been stronger than forecasted.

    I’m fascinated with this satellite loop, because on the left of the loop, I’m pretty sure those low level stratus or cumulus clouds are indicative of a cooler, bit less humid airmass that this storm is bringing into its circulation and somehow, this thing keeps on chugging.

    It wouldnt surprise me though, if this thing has a fairly quick convective demise the next 24 hrs, as it gets over cooler waters. Lets hope, because its tracking towards Hawaii.

  35. Happy birthday to rainshine and thanks to all of you for those wishes for my dad. He had a relaxing birthday today after his big party yesterday. 🙂

    I have updated the blog!

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