One Wet Wednesday

198 Comments

7:36AM

Low pressure moves through the region today. Frequent showers, some heavy, will be the biggest concern as some flash flooding may occur. There will be some embedded thunder with a slight risk of damaging wind in any storms, but this is a not likely to be a widespread problem.

The upper level low pressure will take a couple days to cross the region Thursday and especially Friday with some additional clouds at times, and perhaps a shower on Friday.

The weekend looks great with high pressure in control Saturday and a weak front crossing the region Sunday with no more than a passing shower expected, but also mostly dry weather.

The early part of next week looks warmer as high pressure tries to build offshore.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy with frequent showers and embedded thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours. Temperatures steady 65-72. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH inland 10-20 MPH with higher gusts along the coast. Splash over possible at the time of high tide.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with  many showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s to near 80. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 75.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 60. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

198 thoughts on “One Wet Wednesday”

  5. Tom here is my response to the question you asked previous blog
    There are flash flooding warnings up for southeastern parts of CT. The heavy bands of snow in the blizzard of 2013 did setup shop in parts of eastern CT. There were spots that picked up close to 6 inches of snow from that blizzard in one hour

  7. Thank you TK!!

    JJ, JR had what seemed to be most of CT, RI and south coast MA in POSSIBLE severe area.

    Awful flooding south of here as well as other areas of the country. The cars in NY and NJ, as Dylan D explained, didn’t drive into the floods. It simply rained too hard for them to do anything. Scary stuff. And I love seeing Dylan more often on the Today show. Great addition (and our loss) IMHO

    1. They said she understood the conversation about Mr. Williams death and her lip actually began to quiver.

  13. Imagine if that was all snow. 122.1 inches of snow.
    Vicki I missed the heavy rain but the winds were gusting around 5AM and knocked down my hanging plant. The thing were keeping an eye here is if any sun were to develop that COULD fuel locally strong to severe storms with low threat of a damaging wind gust or weak tornado.

    1. sighhhhhh – it isn’t snow 🙁

      And with any threat of rotation, I’ll just hope that the sun stays hidden.

      Must have been quite gusty to knock over a hanging plant.

    1. Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist

      Update from NWS rainfall experts highlights Southern New England for upcoming flash flooding. Current ongoing heaviest rain band is focused on the nose (leading edge) of low level wind burst, forecast to drift across Eastern MA – flood threat imminent in SE CT…am concerned about southwest & MetroWest burbs of Boston to Eastern Worcester County by late AM, will continue to monitor: http://ow.ly/Ah9qV

      http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/images/mcd0270.gif

  15. 03Z SREF

    0-1Km HELICTY

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081303/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f015.gif

    0-3KM HELICITY

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081303/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f015.gif

    Boy would we be in trouble IF we had big time instability. Thankfully we do NOT
    and are NOT likely to have it. Even so, with these parameters, we still have to
    watch for convective elements.

    The Significant Tornado Ingredients stays OFF SHORE

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081303/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f021.gif

    Which I still do not understand. I guess there is more instability out there???

  17. Marshfield, Providence and Taunton all have winds fairly light from the east or northeast. (040 to 090).

    Block Island, Hyannis, Falmouth, Nantucket have southeast winds (120) that are beginning to gust to 20-25 kts.

    Definite coastal front w/additional convergence setting up.

    Wouldnt be surprised if very heavy rains evolve a bit further east, closer to this boundary over the next 2-3 hrs.

  18. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
    NASSAU…SUFFOLK COUNTY…AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
    CONNECTICUT. KISP RECORDED 5.41 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR BETWEEN
    5 AND 6 AM EDT. TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR AS OF 715 AM EDT AT KISP IS
    12.21 INCHES. TOTALS OVER 5 INCHES COMMON IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN
    ACROSS SUFFOLK. THE BAND OF HEAVIES RAIN HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER NOT
    MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST FEW HOUR…SO FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE
    ACROSS THIS AREA.

      1. But it doesn’t need to in order to produce a tornado.
        There is actually MORE shear to the North of the front.
        BUT there is much less instability North of the front.
        Mostly just synoptic rain. However, should some convective elements get going? Well we’ll need to watch that.
        Catch 22.

  20. Latest update from SPC has expanded the 2% tornado chance for all SNE along with 5% chance of wind.
    Rooting for the cloud cover to hold and not get self destructing sunshine.

  23. Thanks TK! I am in Osterville this morning and the sun is trying to come out and the winds are picking up.

  24. NYC has a northeast wind.

    I think the triple point low may be over or ever so slightly south of central Long Island.

    Taking some interest in the pop corn like convection over Long Island and near Block Island. Perhaps this is where any strong storms may evolve from, just south and southeast of the current heavy rain shield.

    1. I see that pop corn convection now. It doesn’t look like they are strong though, yet anyways. To my untrained eye, it looks like the widespread action will be over by lunchtime.

    1. I’m not sure I like that.

      Aside from not having to deal with flooding, which is great, I wonder if it means the southern tail of this system is destined to move over the area you identified Ace.

      And, I’m guessing that might be the area that has the best chance at a strong storm or two.

    1. Was just gonna post that OS. Its been a nice steady soaking rain, but nothing torrential. Perfect for the lawns and gardens. Just over 0.50” here in Walpole so far.

      1. I don’t have a gauge, but I suspect considerably less here.
        Perhaps 1/4 inch and that might be stretching it.

  27. I have .19″ so far and cannot see where we get the rain amounts the NWS Posted earlier. I don’t remember a stretch like this where my area is in between beneficial rain for so long.

  28. HOLY CRAP BATMAN!!!! LOOK AT THESE NEW HELICITY VALUES from
    the 09Z SREF runs!!!!

    0-1KM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081309/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    0-3KM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081309/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

    NEVER have I seen this in New England. It looks like an April tornado outbreak
    day in Oklahoma or Kansas!! NEVER have I seen this!!!

    Imagine if we had high instability!!!!

    WOW!!

    Significant tornado ingredients (12Z already passed)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081309/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f003.gif

    15Z coming up. Paying attention JJ?

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081309/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f006.gif

    Totally gone, or a spot or 2 off shore thereafter.

    1. Thanks for links Old Salty..
      That does have my attention and if any sunshine comes out I will be watching the radar closely. Last time CT was shaded
      in significant tornado ingredient we had the EF0 in Wolcott.

  29. The Rain elements seem to weaken or even break apart as they get up to
    the Boston area and Northward. Weird.

    1. Interesting. You would think there would be storms forming in that area, but nothing at the moment.

  33. SE Mass is still pretty much devoid of precipitation. Amazing.

    NOT much in Boston, that’s for sure. Yes, rain, but not all that much. 😀

    1. East wind in North Attleboro – partly cloudy
      South to southwest wind in Walpole – moderate rain

      Looks like the coastal front is pretty much right along or just SE of I-95 from Providence to Boston

    3. Not sure I have ever seen anything like that before.
      Incredible!!!!

      This WILL be studied. There will be papers written for sure.

  36. NO WAY predicted rainfall verifies in our region today. NO WAY!

    The whole thing is just spreading out. Echoes are less intense and there are weak echoes in between the stronger ones.

  38. This area of rain is not the end of the story… and if the sun ever breaks out for an hour, eastern MA will be in trouble.

  39. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/

    So many different motions on the radar.

    I think there’s a lower altitude batch of drizzle, heavy mist on the south shore. Its moving SE to NW.

    SE CT and southern RI have these “strings” of heavy showers. The showers themselves are oriented SE to NW, but they are moving overall slowly north and east.

    I wonder if those showers in SE CT and southern RI need to be watched over the next 2-4 hrs.

    1. and, just radar watching ….. I really think southeastern VT needs some sort of flood statement/advisory.

  40. I know it won’t last but rain all but stopped in Woburn and getting bright enough that would swear the sun will peek out.

  42. Tom it almost looks like there wants to be breaks of sun near your area OR
    at least moving up into your area. Any signs?

  44. Just checked NOON OBS.

    Wind is EAst from Boston to Worcester.
    Southeast in RI and CT.

    Not sure what to make of that/???????

  51. Heaviest rain now than we’ve had all day. Sky is brighter though and the winds have really picked up.

  53. Thanks, TK.

    I am not sure if anyone has posted a satellite loop recently, but I just saw this. Looks kind of interesting with some of the swirls. Also, it looks like some clearing south of NY if I’m not mistaken and out in central NY. Let’s hope the clouds hold in for the rest of the day into the evening. Seems to want to brighten up here in Sudbury.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

    1. That line is moving SW to NE. To its east there looks to be a SE to NW flow coming into that area. Could this cause some rotation with that line?

      1. Absolutely. But to be a problem there will need to be at least a thunderstorm with sufficient updrafts. So far, I don’t see that.

  56. From Gray Maine NWS

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    .UPDATE…

    A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS MASSACHUSETTS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NH AND MAINE LATER TODAY.

    Interesting.

    Really? I think it is still to the South. Anyone?

    1. Yup, still too the south, but not that far south. Question is, does the low come through first and keep the warm sector out over the ocean, or does the low slow down and allow the warm front to come through first.

  57. I was referring to rapid destabilization if any sun appeared. Fortunately, it looks like much of the area will remain socked in, north of the warm front, until after max heating is long gone.

    There will be a whole lot of unrealized potential severe weather today. We’re lucking out.

    1. I wonder if we’re using up all the eastern US trofs and disturbances rotating through them to create these anomolous low pressure areas. This has been crazy !!

      1. Nope. Can’t “use them up”. 🙂 It’s just a pattern.

        But I think the trough this winter is going to be buried in the SE alot with a flat WSW flow over the Midwest and Northeast dominating.

          1. Interesting TK.

            If I understand TK correctly, picture a January day where its sunny and 27F in International Falls, MN (quite a bit above average) and it might be snowing in say ….. Atlanta, GA and 34F (quite a bit below avg).

  60. Very squally weather throughout eastern MA. Will that continue through the afternoon and evening or will it completely shut off?

  61. Seems the 12Z Euro gives me hope of a ridge in the east and then the 0z run kinda tempers it.

    Today’s 12z run is bullish yet again in the day 8-10 time period. By day 10, it projects a broad 591 dm ridge over a good chunck of the eastern third of the US, centered a bit west and south of us.

    Coming up through the midwest are 20C 850mb temps !!!, while our 850mb temps are slowly warming from 12C to 15C.

    Please, this would be a nice change and a NEW pattern.

      1. Yes, warmer.

        We’ll see though, some ridging near Greenland would argue against a big warmup and I havent really seen 2 successive runs yet show the same thing. Been the last 3 or 4 days, kind of back and forth.

    1. Wow, I’d guess we’re in the .1 to .2 range, but looks like we are about to get a heavy band of showers.

  64. I’m curious to see the rainfall totals for the area when all is said and done. They will be about as diverse as a snowstorm. One town will have 2″ of rain and the next town over will only have 0.25″

  66. Coming down in torrents in Woburn…radar doesn’t even show a heavy band but it is what it is.

  67. One inch of rain in Wrentham today. Mostly steady light to moderate rain all day with a few downpours mixed in. Nothing too bad, a nice soaking for the lawns which were starting to dry out.

  75. No more rain falling here in Boston and no real sign of clearing for now.

    Todd did mention that a thunder storm could still flair up in and around the Boston area. I guess we will see. Hope not.

    1. Sure and I hop around on Easter Sunday delivering jelly beans and candy eggs!!

      Gutner simply isn’t very good. My wife thinks he’s awful as well.
      We don’t believe a word he says. 😀

  76. Boston received 0.95″ today and may fall just shy of an inch. We will see if one more batch of showers come through the city from the south. I believe the line to the west will pass just north of the area.

  77. Will any of the storms out west on radar reach us in the north of Boaston area? Looks like they are moving at an eastern angle.

  78. Even though the real steady rain has ended for most of the area, its still drizzly/misty with an occasional squally shower. No sign of clearing.

  79. Basically, the computer model forecasts verified today. Decent forecast by most models.

    What many will not get is why they didn’t have the maximum amounts. Harvey said it best. The plotted forecasts showed gaps in the heavier amounts with many areas under 1.00 inch. He said don’t worry too much about placement, since models don’t handle that well, but remember that the idea is there will be gaps in between heavier bands.

    Exactly what happened.

    And we did mention this afternoon that it looked like the low would occlude, preventing a warm front from reaching this area.

    Also, exactly what happened.

    1. Tk,

      No one is complaining about your forecast. You were right on target, as usual.

      I think we complain about the howitzer HYPE job put on by the media
      and the NWS for that matter. 😀

      1. Oh I didn’t think anyone was complaining about mine.

        In fact, I agree that the media still does a poor job in making people understand that not everyone is going to get the maximum #’s being tossed out there.

        Harvey did his part and it was great.

        Speaking of, did anyone see Harv’s robot impersonation on the 6PM newscast? Funny.

  81. MayuI ask a question. Since the whole bleeping area was under a flash flood warning,
    did it VERIFY anywhere? I know we had the flooding on Long Island, was there flooding in Southern CT and RI? Western MA? Vermont? Just wondering IF the warning
    was in the right areas? I think not.

  83. Is eastern MA going to get slammed with those storms coming in? Stepped out but not sure if I should go home.

  85. Just got surprisingly brighter out. Just enough to see some light on the western horizon from the soon to be setting sun

  90. Kennebunkport got pummeled. Rain and Tstorms. Wunder has them at 3.10 rain. Friend said they were telling people to get off roads

  92. Thanks tk , received about 2.50 inches here, a few local areas of flash flooding earlier today, but all and all no major flooding, on my ride back this evening The lake looked to be back to healthy levels for mid Aug. Goodnight 🙂

  93. Good morning,

    Nice morning. A bit chilly. 64 at this hour.

    Looks like No One is home today. 😀

    1. Logan officially 1.06 inches or so Todd Gutner reported at 11PM last night.

      From what I saw, that sounds about right or perhaps even a bit high. 😀

    1. It is beautiful and I agree, feels like September. I expected it to be a tad
      warmer. Still only 65.3 at this hour. That’s pretty cool.

  99. Yesterday was like real estate. Location, location, location.

    What you got depended on where you were. 😀

    2. Islip, NY got too much rain. Just an incredible amount of rain over 13 inches in a 24 hour period and this was not a tropical
      storm or hurricane that produced that amount of rain rather just an area of low pressure.

      1. If this was any indication of the production of lows that will form along the east coast during this upcoming winter, we are in for it.

        1. Honestly, I don’t think it means anything at all.

          Winter will be what Winter will be, whether yesterday’s event happened or not. 😀

          1. That being said, I have increasing thoughts and feelings that this Winter may be BRUTAL in our area. 😀

      1. Looked at the NAO yesterday and I wish this was winter since it in the negative territory. As we saw last winter
        you could still get good dumpings of snow with neutral to slightly positive NAO. For the blizzard of 2013 the NAO
        was slightly positive.

  104. Does anyone have this or know about this? MPING

    US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC shared a link.

    Our radar can’t see what’s happening on the ground, but you can! Get the mPING app to report the weather! http://ow.ly/AjROa

    1. I am with you there Vicki! If its not gonna be hot this summer, we might as well get into some crisp fall days 🙂

  107. Yes, you may say it.

    It is beautiful, UNLESS you planned on swimming at the beach or pool.
    One would literally freeze one’s backside off coming out of the water today.

    Golf, tennis, hiking, horseback riding, cycling etc etc etc….MARVELOUS weather!!!

    1. There have been very few true beach days this summer. By beach day i mean being able to lay out in a bathing suit with NO extra clothes on and going in the water and swimming without being uncomfortable.

      1. My kids have been to the beach nearly every weekend day and I can tell you they think everything is cold.

  108. From Joe Lundberg’s daily blog at accuweather, first sentence ……

    “Don’t trust the models these days.”

      1. Haha … Do we ever ?

        In this case, he’s referring, I think, to the varied ideas on what may happen the middle of next week in the mid Atlantic, northeast and maybe another rainy low pressure area.

        Just made me chuckle though that his blog today started with that.

  109. this is what you would expect in mid to late september, i guess no dog days of summer this year , until band camp next week 🙁

  111. Other than driving, this is the first time I have sat down since 7AM.

    Working on the blog update now. Posted by 5:40PM. 🙂

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