Quick Update

80 Comments

7:23AM

High pressure centered to the north continues to try to hold off disturbances to the south and west. The one from the west will toss some cloudiness into the area today and Friday as areas of lower clouds also come in from the ocean due to an east to northeast wind. This will keep it on the cool side. High pressure sinks slowly southward during the weekend with less cloudiness eventually, but still on the cool side temperature-wise. By early next week, it will start to feel more like typical late Summer as high pressure sinks even further and ends up centered south of the region for a change.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog this morning underneath lots of middle and higher clouds above, which will persist through the day and limit sun. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s coast to inland. Wind light E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 55-60. Wind light N.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs middle 60s to lower 70s coast to inland. Wind light E to NE.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 58. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 57. High 72.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

80 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  4. Re-Posts from Earlier this AM:

    Old Salty says:
    August 21, 2014 at 6:36 AM
    re: Tropical System

    Here is the 0Z CMC

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=228

    06Z GFS (just a bit outside)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014082106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=240

    0Z Euro hasn’t got it at all. Never develops it.

    0Z NAVGEM

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2014082100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    August 21, 2014 at 6:46 AM
    Spaghetti chart – Much more divergence than previous run.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_tracks_latest.png
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    August 21, 2014 at 6:48 AM
    Intensity chart

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_intensity_latest.png
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    August 21, 2014 at 6:50 AM
    From NHC

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    August 21, 2014 at 6:51 AM
    Ocean Temperatures

    http://icons-ak.wxug.com/data/images/sst_basin/at_sst_mm.gif
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    August 21, 2014 at 6:56 AM
    Saharan Dry Air Loop

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html
    Reply

  7. OK, I have a follow up request. I need another check on the Sat and Sun Mt Washington forecast. Gotta make the climb this weekend. I am accepting all forecasts and comments. Thank you.

  8. Florida has not been hit by a hurricane I believe since Katrina in 05 when it made landfall in southern part of state as a category one before emerging back in Gulf of Mexico and making landfall as a category 3 in the Gulf Coast.

    1. It does seem like just yesterday the Cowboys had their incredible run in the 90s. Everyone keeps saying how consistently good the Pats have been since their first super bowl victory. But unless they win the whole thing, they are just one of the other teams who didn’t win it IMO. No better than anyone else. They are becoming the Buffalo Bills of the 90s who couldnt quite get over that hump when it really mattered.

      1. Lmao no comparison am imo it’s the nfl not baseball or hockey or basketball, it’s hard to win, no team has won more than the Patriots in regular season playoffs or superbowls in last 20yrs, across the country the Patriots r Polarizing and everyone has an opinion about them which is awesome. They actually beat out any team last year for most talked about and tied for most national televised games, Patriots are the King of the nfl, when I visit dallas everyone’s always saying whoever does the scouting they want him, and find it unbelievable the run of the last 14yrs, it’s been fun, good day am, remember the most superbowl championships goes to Pittsburg and that’s only 6 yes 6, it’s tough to win!!

        1. It’s all relative too Charlie. Professional football hasn’t been around as long as most other mainstream sports and the superbowl era has been even shorter. The 6 superbowls for the steelers is like the 26 or so world series titles for the yankees, or the 17 for the celtics.

        2. Plus, like JJ said, not many people remember the Braves of the 90s bc they only won 1 WS. Sure, the Pats won 3 in 4 years, but to not win one since? No one will remember the multiple playoff wins and almost making it. All people remember are the championships. And if the Pats only get 3 with this QB/coach combo? Huge disappointment IMO. I’m a Pats fan don’t get me wrong, but I’m also a realist and want this team to be remembered for its championships and not its failures of the past 10 years.

          1. Not me 3 outa 4 Super Bowls alone r enough to be at the top for a while, only dallas and New England have ever done that, there clearly 1 of the 4 dynasties of the nfl good day 🙂

  10. OS, do you see a possibility of rain on Mt Washington on Sat and are you talking about it being in the 50’s at the summit?

    1. I only looked at a couple of sites that show the 10 day forecast.
      It calls for a chance of showers tomorrow, but NO RAIN on Saturday
      and Sunday. And yes, 50s at the Summit. About 54 or 55 on Saturday and perhaps 58 or 59 on Sunday. Not my forecast. Just relaying what I saw.

      Here are a couple of links:

      http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/NH/Mt._Washington.html

      http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit.php

      http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/Mount+Washington+NH+USNH0154

      http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/mount-washington-nh/03595/weekend-weather/2258275

  11. The Bills going to four straight Super Bowls but not winning one. To get to four straight championship games is an incredible accomplishment. If they had just won one of those Super Bowls that team would have been looked at a lot differently.
    In Baseball in the 90s The Braves winning all those NL East titles and making multiple world series appearances winning one in 95. If that team had one more than the one world series they could have in my mind been the team of the 90s.

    1. Totally forgot about the Braves going to all those championship games. The Braves, much like the Pats had one of if not the best coach/managers in the game at the time. Also, Pats with arguably the best QB in the game during that span, and the Braves having the best pitching staff in all of baseball at the time. In all sports, its so rare to have those combinations for that long, need to take advantage of it bc it will probably never happen again.

    3. Grain of Salt??? That’s an understatement.

      So this show 100% of normal snowfall for Boston and 133% for SE MA.

      I could live with that. I’ll believe it when I see it.

      I’m thinking MORE than normal snowfall for Boston.
      I know Tk and BB are thinking LESS.

      Should be interesting. 😀

      1. Given the current pattern we are in, if it stays through the winter, i could buy this. More snow in SE MA, well, idk. If the odd precip shield we had this summer over some areas of the south shore creep up in the winter, i think coastal will go postal 🙂

  13. Good morning mix of clouds and sun, not to bad. Looking like a boring weather week ahead. Panthers at Patriots Friday night 7:30pm. Has anybody seen any of the tv rating of these nfl preseason games or practices, there were close to 30,000 attendees for Patriots mini camp, and the tv ratings r through the roof being the most watched event of the week every week during football season, it’s amazing? Good day everyone 🙂

  16. Is this the KISS OF DEATH for the tropical system. Interesting assessment from
    DT. This guy just exudes confidence. What a cocky SOB, even if he is correct this
    time.

    *** UPDATE…. ON 96L AND RUMORS ./ HYPE OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM / HURRICANE HITTING THE USA NEXT WEEK
    (given all the hype about this please share this post)
    SUMMARY… BULLSHIT
    FOLKS the threat to the GULF / FL and the southeast USA is decreasing fast… yes I saw the 6z HWRF with that major hurricane just off the MIami coast …. the HWRF is a god awful Model …. it is OBVIOUS at this point that all of the GFS based models .. and the hwrf model IS run off the GFS Model grid ….are waaaaaay too strong with the development of 96l…
    Please take a look at the maps… I made it pretty clear / easy to understand….
    There IS going to be major trough over the east coast / far western Atlantic this weekend and early next week which will kick 96L out to sea
    And once again in one of these GFS vs ECMWF tropical battles … where for 21 runs in a row the GFS develops some sort of TS or Hurricane the Euro shows at best a Tropical depression … the euro will have won out . I have been doing this for 24 years and not a single time have I ever seen the GFS ” beat” out the euro in one of these situations.

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t31.0-8/10515146_733764583337469_1020564172069913616_o.jpg

    https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/t31.0-8/10557625_733764603337467_811985907321428357_o.jpg

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/1529692_733764626670798_8164940717422639281_o.jpg

    1. I always wondered about the HWRF model.

      I guess I got my answer. Hey DT tell me what you really think about
      the HWRF. 😀

      The Euro doesn’t have this system, therefore there will be NO SYSTEM?
      Huh? Based on the Euro performance since the upgrade, how could anyone
      trust it? Fine.

      Other than intensity, I’m going with the CMC on this one.

      Now I am REALLY CURIOUS to see how this pans out.

      We’ll know which model is the tropical front runner when all is said and done
      with this system. 😀

  20. It’s amazing to me how this tiny strip of real estate has seen such little rain compared to surrounding areas. Will this continue into the winter?

    1. It’s ALL that fertilizer and other lawn treatments Charlie uses in that area.
      HAS TO BE. What other reason would there be? 😆

  21. Our suspect tropical system shows up on the 12Z NAM. It is viewable as a weak system on the lower right of this chart:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    I’m somewhat confused by the NAM upper air charts for the same time period.
    There is a trough off shore and a ridge in the middle of the US moving towards the coast.

    500MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082112&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    300MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082112&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=084

    200MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082112&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    So, depending on timing, this system could be shunted out to sea, Get caught with the next trough and move up the coast, or take a left turn into the Gulf.

    1. Monitoring the 12Z GFS model as it comes out, it looks like the system wants
      to mill about off the SE coast of Florida for quite awhile waiting for the next
      trough. Upper ridge seems to keep it in place. Not sure what it will do
      with subsequent hours.

      In any case, GFS has extremely WEAK system at this point. About 120-130 hours into run. 😀

  22. Getting wild now. 12Z CMC brings system across Florida briefly into the NorthEastern
    Gulf and then across the Appalachians to just South of New England:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=168

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=240

    the 12Z GFS ends up with a harmless NOTHING system that drifts out to sea and goes poof:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=204&fixhh=1&hh=168

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=204

    So there you go. NONE of the models knows what the bleep is going to happen.
    😆 😆

    1. Welcome to the party euro! I would say better late than never, but in the weather world, might as well not show up if you’re gonna show up late. Take that DT 🙂

  25. Models will have a difficult time figuring this thing out until it forms a more defined center of low pressure. That is part of the issue with models right now.

      1. Yes, it is a cool graph. Thank you.

        I think we are a long way from this current tropical
        entity being resolved. I think virtually everything is still
        on the table.

        It looks like the Eastern Gulf, Florida and the entire East Coast
        is vulnerable. As you aptly stated, we will get a better idea
        once we have a pronouncement of an actual Tropical Storm. 😀

        BTW, that could come later today or tomorrow.

        And ACE, thanks for being there. I thought I was posting
        to myself!!!! 😆 👿 😈 😆

  27. The model entertainment continues.

    I think if we combine every model run over the last 2-3 days, this system has been projected to hit everywhere from Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME.

      1. Yup. And this chart does NOT have all of the models, just
        those initialized at 18Z.

        Most likely, this thing passes out to Sea, however, that track
        is nowhere near certain at this point. We’ll do what we always do. Continue to monitor. 😀

            1. You are probably correct. Just kidding around. However, nothing is cast in stone just yet. Too early to tell for certain.

              But I agree, the likely scenario is OTS.

  29. Last reminder

    Get together 7:30 tonight at JP licks legacy place dedham. Looking forward to meeting everyone.

  30. Charlie…
    Though I may chat about my thoughts of winter in advance, my official forecast will be posted in mid November. 🙂

    1. That’s when people should issue winter forecast bc we will have a better handle on things. Any forecast being issued now is just for ratings.

    1. I had a light shower during that time on the other side of the city, got moderate briefly later, but never heavy here.

  34. O.S. … One of the comments went into awaiting moderation only because it had one link more than what the setting was before sending comments into that folder. I’m not sure if you reposted those but I did approve it (from yesterday).

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