Damp to Dry

152 Comments

7:20AM

Easterly flow off the Atlantic and a disturbance from the west have combined to make it damp and grey in southeastern New England, but the theme for the next 3 days will be a very slow drying then clearing trend. You won’t notice it much at first as there will be an overcast and scattered showers around through midday today before showers diminish and eventually become isolated to non-existent. A few patches of drizzle and fog are also possible in coastal areas. Clouds hang on tonight but during tomorrow a clearing trend will begin from the northeast as drier air slides down thanks to high pressure which starts a southward sinking. There will still be some areas of low clouds off the ocean at times especially in coastal areas from Boston south Saturday to early Sunday but these will be diminishing and should vanish by later Sunday morning, leaving the region sunny by the end of the weekend. It still remain cooler than normal through the weekend, however.

The first half of next week, however, will be a different story as high pressure is finally located to the south for a change, and warm air comes in.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers, diminishing with time. Patchy coastal drizzle/fog. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 86.

152 thoughts on “Damp to Dry”

  1. THANK YOU tk.

    SORRY I couldn’t make it last night. HOPE you all had a good time.

    Re:tropics

    Models are all over the place.
    GFS totally ots
    CMC powerful storm hits Al Ms in Gulf
    HWRF GFDL &Euro have it just off East coast.

    Mobile now in newton and cant post links. Later

  4. GFS ensemble members make it a little more interesting this morning. Still OTS but what concerns me is most take it north and then briefly curve it west toward the US mainland before OTS

          1. idk OS, seems that now the CMC is the only one that has been wavering wildly in the last day or so. Its also the strongest which has been an observed bias. I think most models have started to lock into the idea the trough will pick it up and send it northward but the question remains, how close does it get to the US and does it curve out sharply to the east and away from NE.

            1. Ace,

              I hear what you are saying.

              But IF this thing goes into the Gulf I will
              pronounce the CMC as KING!!!

              Clearly, the CMC is an OUTLIER at the moment.

              And even the CMC doesn’t know which end is up evidenced by the ensembles. 😀

                1. 😆

                  You don’t like darts?
                  I’m terrible at darts!
                  Instead of having a gentle touch, I throw them about 100 mph such that they nearly go through the dartboard.
                  I can barely remove the dart! 😆 😆 😆 😆

                2. Darts is one of my fav games! I’m terrible at most of the mainstream sports but good at all the bar games like darts and pool

    3. I would guess there is still one piece of the puzzle to how the whole atmosphere will behave that is either out over the Pacific Ocean or is up near the arctic, that needs to get a little closer to a location that is better sampled.

  6. The one thing that gives me a bit of pause is ……..

    The NAO in about 2-3 days is forecast to head from negative to neutral.

    If I’m interpreting the models correctly, its because high pressure aloft near Greenland will be transitioning towards low pressure aloft.

    Lower pressure near Greenland does present a better chance for ridging somewhere near the eastern US.

    It will be interesting to see how the models project that to evolve in the next 36-60 hrs.

    1. Would that give the tropical system a better chance of hitting the east coast? Or would it suppress it further south into the Gulf

      1. I think it would depend on the orientation of any east coast ridge as well as any smaller scale weaknesses in the ridge down in the far southeastern US.

  7. Tom, I think you are onto something. There is some interaction with upper air systems going on for sure.

    IF you look at the 06Z DGEX model, it shows the system doing a complete
    loop well off the SC/NC shore.

    Here is a link. Place your mouse on the hours and watch. Very strange, even though
    we have seen this with tropical systems before. 😀

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html

          1. I think a recon plane is scheduled to get into this thing at some point today, so that should help as well.

            If anyone is interested in following that, on the NHC website, left side, about 1/3 rd of the way down, under TOOLS and DATA, the one to click is Aircraft Recon.

            Under Atlantic, Carribean and Gulf of Mexico Reconnaissance, I like to use the VORTEX DATA MESSAGE.

            For me, I can somewhat understand the info on this page.

            Usually gives pressure, max flight level winds and sometimes has some neat notes at the bottom in regards to structure of the storm, etc.

  10. Thank you TK. I like the temps showing for Tues. – Thurs!
    Sorry! I was unable to attend last night’s get-together. Hope y’all had a great time! Yesterday’s Brighton house fire was a block from me. It was a very sad day in the neighborhood. Thanks to the heroic actions of my neighbor with his ladder, there was not more loss of life!!! My thoughts and prayers go out to the Murdock St. fire victims.

    1. Shotime,

      Thanks for sharing. I was wondering how close that might have been to you.
      Very sad day.

  11. hey Tom,

    When do actual classes start and exactly what do you teach? Math isn’t it?
    What grade?

    Our daughter teaches High School Spanish at Medfield high School. Her classes
    start next week.

    Seeing how hard our daughter works for her students (Or her kids as she calls them), it’s a crying shame teachers aren’t paid more. I don’t care about this BS that they
    have the Summer off. They work their butts off (The good ones anyway and I’m sure you do as well). 😀

      1. We start the day after Labor Day with teacher orientation (bunch of meetings), students start on Wednesday, September 3rd.

        I teach 6th grade math, which under common core is a mixture of skill sets (ex: mastering all operations with fractionsand decimals) and a first real introduction to some algebra (ex: reading a phrase and writing an expression, or solving 1 step equations showing all the algebra).

        I wish your daughter well with the upcoming school year, and the student’s name doesnt sound familiar.

  12. The Greenland height crash event we have been chatting about is getting closer to becoming reality.

    1. AND……

      This opens the door to Warmer weather here? HHH even?

      What effect, if any, would it have on our tropical system?

      Thanks

      1. Actually,

        For me it depends on the sauce (Or gravy if one is Italian).

        I really don’t care which pasta it is, as long as what’s on top
        of it is what I like. I don’t care for pasta with any kind of
        plain tomato sauce.

        Now if you dice it up with hamburger and/or pork and plenty of onions and peppers, then I’ll devour it!! 😀

  14. re: Our tropical System

    Most models take it North of the Islands and East of the Bahamas such
    that it interacts with the existing trough to stay mostly off shore, however,
    this trough closes off and retrogrades. So, even with this scenario it is still
    “possible” that things retrograde enough to get that system up here. To be sure,
    most likely to stay off shore, but here is still a possibility.

    On the other hand, the CMC has it emerge from the islands a little more South
    such that the existing trough does not capture it and it is more influenced by
    the Ridge in the Southern US and travels Wetward into the Gulf.

    It is feasible. The CMC may be an outlier, but there is some sense in that solution.

    I love watching these systems evolve. 😀

    1. The longer it takes for this to develop into an organized tropical system the more likely that scenario could be

  15. Here is the 12Z NAM at 84 hours. WELL off shore at this point, but that trough will
    be closing off and retrograding:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082212&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082212&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082212&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014082212&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    Notice that trough closes off at 500MB, 300MB and even 200 MB.’

    When that starts happening, Watch Out!!!

  16. Good morning!!got a little rain last night, about .10

    Heading to preseason game 3 tonight at 7:30, should be fun, good day everyone 🙂

  20. My apologies in advance for going off topic(weather), but what a crazy world we live in these days. ISIS, Russia now sending 1000’s of military personnel into Ukraine, Israel/Palestine crisis, etc. I can’t even bear to watch TV anymore. I find myself watching more cartoons with the kids. Again sorry for bringing this up on this great weather blog, but felt the need.

  21. 12Z CMC still takes system into Florida 1st, then barely emerges into the Gulf
    hugging the West coast of Florida:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=102&fixhh=1&hh=108

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=120

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    2. So Canadian and UK Met have it not affected by the trof to its north and it steers west ……..

      I wonder what the EURO will show.

      It doesnt make me feel confident that the GFS is showing out to sea. (See Sandy and Isaac)

      The final thing that grabs my attention is that there’s not going to be a lot of lead time on this system if it impacts anywhere. Its the 22nd, this would be somewhere in the 28-30th timerange ?? and its hard to get people to pay attention to something that isnt even a depression yet.

      1. True, however, the 12Z runs depicted it as being much weaker
        than previous runs. So there might not be much to worry about
        no matter the track.

        Euro is coming out now. At 24 hours it is ever so slightly hinting
        that it might also track into the Gulf.

          1. Nope. It’s coming North of the Islands in about
            the same position as the 0Z run. NOT going into
            the Gulf.

  22. If I recall weren’t the maps in the early stages showing Sandy hitting the Gulf and we all know where it ended up…

    1. I “believe” you are correct. Early on, anything goes. It’s not even a TS
      just yet.

      We’ll know more over the weekend. 😀

    1. Eric Fisher was mentioning probably not until the weekend. Still doesn’t look organized to me. Lots of convection yes, and some circulation, but a lack of center

  26. HI again OS!
    Last night went great. About a half dozen of us at a round table (like the knights), before I had to take off and they headed for food. 🙂

    Hope to see you next time!

    1. Mike’s Weather Page
      1 hr
      Invest 96 is starting to get ‘the look’ and take shape. Hurricane Hunters are in now and NHC has chances up a little more this afternoon. We could have Cristobal soon and affecting the Bahamas this weekend. Many tracks still show a recurve but still much uncertainty to be sure right now. Interesting note is forward speed which is 29mph.

  29. Mike’s Weather Page
    56 mins
    Different thinking with models this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters are in trying to find a true center to work from. Winds support possible Tropical Storm right now (but needs a closed center to be classified). Forward speed is 29mph… that might be causing models to shift their thinking.

  31. I’m sorry, I’m talking to myself again!!!

    Winding down to get out of here. A little SLOW this afternoon.

    1. I’m sorry I wasn’t here to play today. I am reading your comments and enjoying each of your links. I do love the lightening link. Next best thing to looking out the window …..sort of

  33. Here is something interesting:

    18Z NAM at 84 hours, SURFACE

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014082218/nam_mslp_wind_eus_29.png

    250MB winds at 48 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014082218/nam_uv250_eus_17.png

    250 mb Winds at 66 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014082218/nam_uv250_eus_23.png

    250 MB winds at 84 hours:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014082218/nam_uv250_eus_29.png

    We talked about the upper winds retrograding.

    This is getting scary!!

    So far at 84 hours it’s only 992MB with top winds of about
    50-54 mph. However, it is over WARM water at this time and “could”
    intensify more.

    1. From NHC at 4:50PM

      SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
      NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
      450 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

      For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

      Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft
      reconnaissance mission.

      1. Updated…An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
      continuing to investigate the area of disturbed weather moving
      over and north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Aircraft reports
      indicate that the system is producing winds of tropical storm force
      over the open waters north of those islands, although the aircraft
      data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a
      well-defined surface circulation. Given the lack of a well-defined
      surface circulation, tropical cyclone advisories are not being
      initiated at this time.

  35. Warm water is necessary, but we need good outflow up top to help.

    Definitely something to watch though.

  36. The 18z is way off in how it handles the system that hasn’t really formed yet.

    The system looks fairly disorganized and is going to be fighting some wind sheer for a while.

    I think in the end this amounts to a whole lot of not much in terms of a tropical threat to the US. There will be some gusty showers in the Caribbean at first, then maybe something near Bermuda later, and that’s about the end of that one. 🙂

    However even though the Atlantic is not going to be producing a whole lot of systems this season, our weather pattern in the next 4 weeks is going to give anything that does form in the right area the shot at getting near the East Coast.

    The one area I am very concerned about for now through November is the Gulf of Mexico. It’s a simmering pot of very warm water. If a disturbance meets good upper level divergence, then kaboom. This is the type of season that one of those Mitch-style monsters can form. This is not a forecast of one happening, just have to watch for this possibility as we go through the coming weeks.

  38. Additional GEFS members and some of the tropical models are showing a westward track projection shift on the 0z runs.

  40. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Since June 21st, daylight has decreased by…
    A. 45 minutes
    B. 65 minutes
    C. 85 minutes
    D. 105 minutes

    Answer later today.

  42. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Boston’s greatest 24 hour rainfall occured during …

    A. Hurricane Bob
    B. Hurricane Carol
    C. Hurricane Diane
    D. Hurricane Kerry

    Answer later today.

  45. Tropical Weather Outlook Text

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    800 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

    For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Satellite imagery indicates that a surface circulation could be
    organizing near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic in
    association with the area of disturbed weather near Hispaniola. This
    system continues to produce shower and thunderstorm activity, and
    environmental conditions are favorable for the development of a
    tropical depression or tropical storm today or Sunday. An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the
    system.

    1. Thanks Tom. I just hope it’s not too much. I tend to go overboard as I absolutely love this stuff and really get off on it.

      I think we have Cristobal sometime today, perhaps even by the 2PM
      advisory. I also think that Cristobal may have a surprise or 2. 😀

      1. Its ALL great, please keep it coming ! 🙂

        I agree with the surprise, because it looks like the first trof in the Atlantic is due to its north now and isnt catching it.

        I’m not saying Gulf of Mexico, but I’d hypothesize this thing ends up just a bit further west than currently progged.

        1. Check out the new GFDL. Intensity way down, but track
          way to the West. There is middle ground here somewhere.

          This is not cut and dry. I’m NOT buying a straight out
          to sea solution at this point.

          I keep hearing that the models will do better once
          a defined center is formed. It can’t be worse, but
          how much better? My guess, not all that much, but some. 😀

        1. More GEFS ensembles coming west.

          More than half the tropical models are towards the Carolinas or Florida.

          Stay tuned !

  50. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

    First link ….. Just north of central Cuba, its subtle, but there’s a small upper level low spinning. I think its doing 2 things …. Its keeping 96L in check by offering shear on its western side, however I think its also probably provided a bit of a westerly tug to the track of 96L.

    Second link, the east coast trof. It does look like its digging and is close to capturing 96L, but I think its not exerting as much northward tug as the models thought a few days ago, thus the continued trend to a more westerly track.

    2. They look good. I don’t really have any worries about this team. But anything can happen during the season. They have a good shot at going really far. We’ll see how it plays out after one more “fake” game and then the real games start. 🙂

      1. I’m ready for the real games. And I agree with you. I think we have a great team to watch. But then we always have

      2. Yup this next game preseason game 4 is really the most fake, but still exciting to see the rookies, went to the game, didn’t leave till the clock hit 0:00 bc I wanted to see garapolo 😉 good day

  53. Putting in a quick update!
    I’m not going to be at the keys much today.
    Inside projects this morning.
    Outside projects this afternoon.
    Leaving late afternoon for a concert tonight by the harbor.
    Will need a jacket!

    1. Yes jacket a must for those faint of heart…..just kidding. I’ve been giving mac a lot of teasing because he tends to wrap up in his blanket. We have friends coming for a quiet pizza night and I suggested they bring jackets as we will be on the porch. Golly but I love this summer’s weather.

      1. I would say from talking to clients and people etc etc it’s about half and half, I don’t think anyone’s gonna hate 70’s and 80’s, as a summer but there r many that feel if they have to deal with cold and snowy winters they would like a hot summer, even some have said there worried it’s leading to a cold winter, which we all know most do not like, anyways have a good weekend Vicki and go patriots 🙂

        1. I do think it will be a cold winter as well. As tk said in July a cold winter with lack of or below for snow in our area . The almanac has a cold winter and below snowfall for New England , watch us get clobbered .

        2. I’d agree. Half my family is from the dark side. So half and half sounds about right. I look forward to fall for reasons other than weather as well a a weather and this is the first time in a long time I’m going to have trouble letting go of summer.

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