SUMteMbER

Think about it. 🙂

8:57PM

Here’s what’s up with the weather. The Summertime pattern is here and will continue into next week, despite a cool interruption along the way. But to get there, we have to go through several more warm to hot days. However, Tuesday’s oppressive dew points will be gone for midweek as it is somewhat less humid and not as hot, but still quite warm. By Thursday night and Friday, the humidity will return as high pressure which moves in behind a cold front Wednesday slides offshore by then. The next front will approach this coming weekend, but at this point the timing of this front is uncertain. I have been leaning toward a slower timing, and continue to do this. This scenario would mean a hot/humid Saturday but a thunderstorm threat potentially for late day or night, and an unsettled day with cooling air for Sunday. If things move along enough, we may enjoy a cool/dry day Monday before another warm-up ensues.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Scattered showers and a risk of a thunderstorm northern MA and southern NH after midnight. Isolated showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm southern MA to northern RI after 2AM. Most areas will see no showers/storms. Humid. Lows 66-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds to start, then turning mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-66. Wind light W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-85. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 89.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of t-storms late. Low 68. High 91, cooler South Coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 65. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

120 thoughts on “SUMteMbER”

  1. Overnight: Dewpoints drop slowly from around 70 to the middle 60s.
    Wednesday: Dewpoints drop from the middle 60s to around 60.
    Thursday: Dewpoints start out around 60 then creep slowly up later.
    Friday: Dewpoints 65-70.
    Saturday: Dewpoints 65-70.
    Sunday: Dewpoints 60-65.
    Monday: Crisp & dry.
    Tuesday: Comfortable.

  2. Probably good that Dolly is coming ashore because I think it would have intensified if it had a bit more time. The convection is around the center and the upper level winds lookmuch healthier with the cirrus fanning out quite nicely on the eastern side.

    Norbert ??, just west of Mexico, seems to continue these huge circulation storms in the Pacific. I thought Marie was a large storm and the circulation on this developing storm looks like it covers a vast area.

  3. Thanks TK! I’m up in Plymouth, NH now for my first year of meteorology studies at the University here. Looks like a little bowing segment of strong but non-severe storms to my west over VT, I’m hoping they hold together and make it here but I don’t know if they will. Might just be some lighter showers when they get here.

  4. There are still some messages being flagged as spam that are clearly not spam. So again if your message goes to the pending folder, be patient. I’ll be checking it frequently until I get all the settings squared away.

  5. Hi everyone, jumped in to see when this Gulf of Mexico/Everglades weather stuff was going to move out of town. I really miss our August weather, please come back.

    Had a couple of really close lightning bolts crack overhead in Sherborn today ahead of a strong thunderstorm moving due east around 6PM tonight. It was partly sunny/hazy at the time, rain was a solid 10 minutes behind it. We were outside and it was quite unexpected surprise!

  6. Judging by the trusty Accuweather 325 day forecast, we have 4 more 80 degree days for the rest of the summer / fall.

    When will we get into a more normal weather pattern with low pressure developing and giving us a wide spread rain storm? This T-Storm thing is not working out for me. I would like to reseed some areas but I don’t see any rain insight.

        1. Lol Vicki. We don’t know what that is like down on the southshore where many storms have missed us . Not a drop yesterday or last night .

          1. Aside from the rains from Arthur, your area has received very little rain. Its been the strangest thing

  7. We visited with the breeder last night and saw 3 beautiful chocolate lab puppy girls. We had all intentions of just looking, but, we will have a new addition to our family this sunday. Let the games begin! 🙂

    1. I have a black lab, they are terrific! Very smart and great with young children. We started training ours once we took him home, he’s not allowed on any furniture. I’ve trained him to go the bathroom in a small area we have designated for him. We have moved three times and he has learned his new place every time within a hour. We used key words like “Go Poddy” and he runs right to his spot. What ever you do, do not over feed them. They will eat everything and when they get over weight they start having joint and hip problems. He is currently at 1 cup in the morning and 1 in the afternoon. Congrats and enjoy!

      1. Coastal do they shed a lot? My daughter has a Jack Russell and he goes in a liter box. I suspect a lab is too big for that.

    2. Congratulations. Mac keeps saying we will not get another dog but this makes me want one……..not yet but eventually. I think you will love her. Are you thinking of names 🙂

      1. We have been rattling off possible names since last night but its so sudden we havent had time to really sit down and think about it. Our #1 -3 right now are Xena, Cora, and Dixie

        1. Congrats, Ace! So exciting! After my cat died, I made an Excel document with names for kittyboys and kittygirls. Crazy, I know… but it was really helpful, and I chose 1 name off of it for the first cat, and then a few weeks later, I got another one, and chose a name off-list. I find boy names are more difficult to come up with, and I ended up with two boycats! So happy for you and your family, and now having seen the puppy, you’ll be able to choose the perfect name!

    1. I was thinking about that, but didn’t have a chance to zero in on it.
      We shall see. We’re getting to the point where the sun angle is going to
      start limiting the instability.

      How do the other models look? The GFS is usually the most bullish.

  8. Good morning,

    What an absolutely glorious day!!!
    Very NOTICEABLY DRIER this morning. AHHHHHH REFRESHING!!!
    Compared to that CRAP SOUP we were having.

  9. EHI on 6z run of GFS by comparison is only .25 At the very least should we get any thunderstorm activity on Saturday heavy rainfall will happen with the atmosphere loaded with moisture.

    1. Look at the EHI on the CMC!!!!!!!!!

      Why oh Why oh Why such a discrepancy??????????????????????????????

      The EHI on the GFS is always under done OR the GFS is more accurate
      and the CMC and NAM are always over cooked. I dunno.

      BUT I’d lean towards the CMC on these matters than the GFS.

      Perhaps TK could shed some light on this.

      I’m not suggesting there will be tornadoes Saturday, but with those
      elevated EHI numbers, SEVERE storms certainly would be a possibility
      and the threat of an isolated tornado can’t be totally ruled out either.

      It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

      Probably will end up with timing issues and all we get are a few dying remains
      of T-storms that fired up well West of us. 😀

  10. Hopefully it is a later timing where it doesn’t come through during the peak heating of the day. This front looks to be stronger than the one that came through last night. There are certainly some ingredients there for thunderstorm developement on Saturday one of them being those high dew points which thunderstorms love and feed off of and the convective available potential energy (CAPE) shown by GFS and CMC is enough for thunderstorm developemnet

    1. The CAPE is MORE than enough for thunderstorms. It’s high enough for severe thunderstorms. Again, IF the timing is right.

      Timing is usually NOT right as will probably be the case this time as well.

      We shall see. 😀

      1. FWIW, the Euro is NOT so bullish on Severe weather for Saturday. Total totals not impressive. CAPE barely 1500, sure enough for T-storms but severe? Don’t think so.
        The Euro severe parameters are non-existent for Saturday.

        BTW, the Euro hardly EVER seems to be on board for severe
        weather. 😀

  11. That SREF has been a great model and was spot on with the EF 2 tornado in Revere and the EF 0 tornado in Worcester Sunday evening.
    I agree with you Old Salty the 0z CMC EHI values are frightening. Thankfully were still a few days out because if this was showing this on Saturday I would be concerned.

    1. I’m thinking that based on the 12Z NAM results, the 12Z CMC will still
      be BULLISH. We shall see a bit later on. 😀

      1. BTW, the 03Z SREF does NOT indicate a tornado threat.
        Even a severe threat is Marginal based on that run.
        The 09Z Run is almost out to end of day Saturday.

        1. I was just looking at the 06Z FIM run.
          It’s a shame that it does NOT include any severe
          weather parameters. The only thing I can pull out of it
          was that Dew Point temperatures for Saturday afternoon and evening are expected to be in the LOW 70s.

          Certainly juicy for thunderstorm development.

    1. Is this a repeat, Philip? I know they are doing repeats of the battle of the decades now. I say that as if it matters since neither Mac nor I can remember any answers so it really doesn’t matter.

      1. OK, Interesting. So how does this relate to Jeopardy?
        Do they use this technology to come with the answers?
        Is it just a gimmick like Craig Ferguson’s dumb ass robot?
        ??????????????????????????

    1. This is getting interesting.

      09Z SREF doesn’t even come close to these values.
      Marginal Severe at Best.

      We’ll have to wait until the 15Z run of the SREF.

      Generally speaking, we have to wait until we get considerably closer with this model.

  12. BTW,

    Looking at simulated reflectivity, it looks like the lift is out of sync
    with the potent instability. The actual lift follows several hours after maximum
    instability. Still enough for storms, but in all probability, not enough for severe
    weather. Will continue to watch.

      1. As per usual, the GFS leads the way in Bullishness.
        Those are some pretty HEFTY instability parameters.
        We shall see as we get closer if these numbers will hold.
        I doubt it, but time will tell. 😀

  13. Something to consider…

    Here are the resolutions of the 3 main models were are looking at here:

    NCEP-NAM / North America (mesh: 12 km interpolated to 33 km)
    NCEP-GFS / North America (mesh: 27 km interpolated to 50 km up to 120-h; 100 km after)
    CMC-GDPS a.k.a. GEM-GLB / North America (mesh: 25 km interpolated to 33 km)

    The NAM has the best resolution by MORE than double.
    12 KM vs 25 and 27 KM.

    INTERESTING to keep in mind as we move along on this. 😀

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    2. Well my response to the above was blocked by the trusted Word Press
      SPAM BLOCING BRIGADE!!!!

      ROTFLMAO!!!!!!

      I used too many of these: 😆

    3. LMAO!!!! Just drove past Woburn on my way to Burlington. Lovely day for a ride but not looking forward to the return trip!

  14. For the summer tempature this summer it ran average and September is sitting right now over 10 degrees above average per Harvey .

    1. Sept to this point is much above average, but it’s only been 3 days, average highs are 78 degrees, average low is 55 degrees, I love fall time 🙂

          1. Technically yes, but when you think sept I always think of fall, just like when u think of dec you think of winter, I’m not all about this it’s still summer or it’s still winter, again technically yes it’s fall, another way I judge is once the leaves r all down it’s winter in my book, that’s about thanksgiving or shortly thereafter 🙂

  15. Old Salty…you were correct. It is Alex’s moustache! 😀

    The moustache announcement is shown during commercial breaks. Also, the rumor is that Alex will be retiring after the 2015-16 season. No replacement has been chosen at this time.

  16. Alex Trebek in my opinion aged very quickly when he shaved his moustache a few shows into the 2001-2002 season.

  17. TK

    Suggestion:

    Don’t know if Word Press would do this, but anyway you could
    have a listing of Blog Members over on the side somewhere?

    Just a thought. Thanks

  18. BFD tweeted that it looks like the fire walls held up.
    I can’t imagine what it would have been like if that weren’t the case!

  19. I’m kind of hoping any storms would hold off on Saturday.

    Eastham, out on the outer Cape, has its annual windmill weekend.

    With it being very warm Saturday, I’m thinking of driving down and seeing if my kids want to participate in the sand castle building contest on the bayside beach. They have other activities as well, but, I’m kinda ready for a beach day.

  20. After having (4) 90F days at Logan for the June and July timeframe, there have been 2 more in the recent few weeks.

    Perhaps an opportunity for 2 more on Friday and Saturday ???

    A total of (8) 90F days at Logan, if Fri and Sat occur, would be a decent accomplishment given all of the east coast trofiness this summer.

        1. We were on plum island just a week ago and the instructor said we may see seals as the water is warm close to the coast, he told us we should take as many pics as you want, when we went in there you sign a agreement stating your responsible for your own actions, there’s crazy stuff in the Atlantic, you never know what can happen out there, in the end we got a couple pics of seals but nothing to great, we had a blast. 🙂

          1. Pics from shore are fine. Going in the water where seals are is nuts. Sharks and seals are part of ocean life. Humans like to dramatize the fact that sharks bite. Wellllllllllll sharks are doing what is natural. The only animals I find to be silly are two legged things called humans 😉

            1. Just don’t blame the kayak companies, blame the person that was in the ocean and decided to do ocean kayaking 🙂

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