A Sliced Weekend

396 Comments

3:34PM

9:27AM Saturday morning edit to remove the Friday night forecast portion.

Heat and humidity came back in on Friday with sunshine & a few clouds, along with that hazy look that we did not see a whole lot of during the middle of the Summer. This air mass will continue to be with us in southeastern New England into Saturday, but will be pushed out of here by a cold front that crosses the region from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. With this front cutting into the very warm and muggy air mass, and sufficient instability, some of the storms may be strong to severe.  There will also be areas that escape the worst of this and end up with very little action with the front. Once this front clears the region overnight, it will set up a couple very nice days Sunday and Monday. Toward Tuesday and the middle of next week, the weather may go downhill as an area of low pressure forming along the stalled front once its to our south will try to toss clouds and some wet weather back into this area.

FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Heavier clouds with a risk of showers and thunderstorms northwest to southeast mid afternoon through early evening. Any storms may be strong to severe. Muggy. Highs in the 80s, may hit 90 in a few locations, some upper 70s South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms early, but ending northwest to southeast. Drying late. Lows around 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 73.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 54. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 56. High 75.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 55. High 73.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 55. High 70.

396 thoughts on “A Sliced Weekend”

  1. Thanks TK….

    AND…. could you share with us your reasons why you think that tomorrow’s storms
    could be a partial bust?

    Curious.

    1. I think again it will be a case where instability pockets are split (one north and one southwest) and the strongest storms are concentrated there. Some of that may be aided by outflow from the first storms that form, so something that we have to watch. But it keeps happening this season. We shall see.

      1. Thank you. So you are not diminishing the Severe Threat per se,
        just saying that it most likely will not affect everyone, which
        is often the case. BUT where it does hit, it could very well
        be quite severe? Correct?

        It certainly seems like this is the best set up all Summer.

        We shall see. 😀

  2. Thanks TK.

    Could you possibly share your reasoning as to why you think tomorrow
    may be at least a partial thunderstorm bust? Thanks

    1. I got it. Caught that one early. I have NO clue why that keeps happening. But I am going to alert the techies and they will be on site this evening while I am off enjoying a concert. 😉

  8. Latest from NWS re: Tomorrow

    WHILE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINAL /LESS THAN 30
    KTS/ AHEAD OF THE FRONT…WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 70S AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S…EXPECTING CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH…EVEN WITHOUT THE SHEAR…FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. INVERTED V PROFILE SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

  11. Here are the EHI numbers from 18Z runs

    NAM

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=027&fixhh=1&hh=024

    CMC

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=024&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=024&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=030&fixhh=1&hh=027

    1. If I may, another word on EHI:

      Composite CAPE/Shear Parameters

      EHI = Energy-Helicity Index. The basic premise behind EHI is that storm rotation should be maximized when CAPE is large and SRH (Storm-Relative Helicity) is large. 0-1 km EHI values greater than 1-2 have been associated with significant tornadoes in supercells.

      SRH is at 100 in parts of the area tomorrow and that generally is considered
      the threshold for tornadoes, especially with significant CAPE.

      So, ALL I am saying is to NOT let our guard down tomorrow and watch
      for “possible” rotation with storms. That’s all.

      Conditions are NOT favorable for a tornado outbreak, but that does not
      mean there couldn’t be an isolated one or 2 in the area. Just something
      to watch as these EHI figures seem to be getting larger.

  12. I have the most accurate and reasoned prediction for tomorrow’s rain

    I just killed the mother of all spiders and sadly what I think were two little ones ….since a descendent of Robert the bruce cannot kill a spider and if he or she does it will result in rain….I suggest everyone prepare their arks 😉

        1. No we are tomorrow night I’m working during the day . I took a fee days off as Sunday is our 12 th wedding aniversary together. 18 yrs.

    3. Here’s the definitive answer! Why of course, from the NWS:

      https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10636168_676595562434818_1151807556943950475_n.png?oh=f6ca6c7e653dd78de8c8abcd13e4dc46&oe=54A56308&__gda__=1420164784_5c17d8677a17380e1f308618472670cc

      US National Weather Service Boston MA

      Be on the lookout Saturday mid-late afternoon & evening for thunderstorms producing strong winds & flash flooding. The storms will likely not arrive into the Boston & Providence Metro areas until mid or late afternoon and possibly not until sunset across Cape Cod. Thus many hours of dry weather Saturday before the storms arrive. It will be hot as well with temperatures ranging from 85 to 90. This combined with humid conditions will make it feel like it’s well into the 90s. Exercise caution if outdoors for an extended period of time and make sure to stay hydrated.

    1. The week we just had belonged in August …..

      Too bad we couldnt have traded it with August 19th – 24th, when the highs were 74F, 74F, 72F, 72F and 75F.

      September in August, July in September …. I give up. 🙂

  19. 0ZNAM and 0ZCMC have BACKED OFF on the EHI parameter.

    Still Bullish with CAPE and LIFT.

    We shall see tomorrow.

  20. Going to be watching the radar closely tomorrow afternoon and evening and see what develops.
    Damging winds and heavy rainfall look to be the main threats with any of these storms tomorrow.

    1. Yup. I am even less concerned about any possible spin ups now that
      I have seen the 0Z NAM and CMC. Straight line damaging wind still very possible with tomorrow’s set up. We’ll be watching.

      1. Will the SPC post a Severe Thunderstorm watch box? Yes? No?
        Maybe? I dunno?

        I’m guessing a resounding YES to that one.

        We shall see.

  21. SPC still has the region with the exception of southeastern MA in the slight risk area for severe storms.
    2% chance of tornado far north west of Boston. Parts of Northern New England included in that. Will see what happens when this gets updated around 9AM this morning.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale Today:
    Flooding – Elevated
    Wind – Elevated
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

  22. From NWS in Taunton
    …DO NOTE THAT WITH THE
    ONSET OF STRONGER SHEAR LATER…THERE IS A BRIEF SPIKE IN NEAR
    SFC HELICITY AND EHI. THANKS TO HIGH DWPTS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW
    LCLS…A BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALL OF THESE
    FACTORS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPC DAY 1 PROBS.

  24. 6z CMC- RDPS
    EHI Really Overcooked in my opinion
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=015&fixhh=1&hh=012
    CAPE Less than 6z NAM
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=LI&hh=012&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=012&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  25. Today’s (a little bit dark) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which event kills more people each year?
    A. Lightning
    B. Floods
    C. Tornadoes
    D. Hurricanes

    Answer later today.

    1. It may be dark, but it is a tough one as well because one could easily pick any one of these. It does NOT say WHERE? I’m betting the answer varies depending upon where. So I’ll assume Worldwide, so therefore I will say:

      D. Hurricanes

  28. Its uncomfortable out there and any sunshine we see today will only destablize the atmosphere further. There are ingredients in place for thunderstorm development. Now we sit back and see what happens.

  30. Reading the discussions from the SPC and NWS out of Taunton this is the first time both are mentioning the possiblity of a brief isolated tornado. I think the bigger deal will be the heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts.

  31. Latest HRRR shows radar reflectivity in the Boston area at 20Z or 4PM.

    Look for storms around or about 4PMish.

    HRRR showing SB CAPE of around 3,000 joules and LIFT around -8.

    NOT liking the HRRR Helicity

    Storm Motion (Kt), 0-1KM storm relative helicity (M²/S²)

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014090608/full/1hsm_sfc_f11.png

    That shows about 150 in the Boston area with a spike of 250 just off shore, which
    I presume would have passed through.

    Just when I thought it was SAFE, now I have to worry again!

    1. I’m NOT liking this either:

      10M wind field (essentially surface)

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014090608/full/wind_10m_f12.png

      850MB Wind Field

      http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014090608/full/wind_850_f12.png

      Correct me IF I am wrong, but that shows SOUTH wind at surface with
      WEST wind at 5,000 feet. With instability in place, that spells TROUBLE!!!
      There is a good bit of SHEAR there. Certainly enough to get some
      rotation with a “possible” touch down.

      And this is the most reliable short range model which I will continue to monitor.

  32. You start seeing helicity numbers of 150 or greater you got to be on the look out for any storm that COULD show signs of rotation.
    The sun is trying to break out right now outside my window and any sunshine today is self destructing sunshine as it will only add fuel to the fire to an already unstable environment.

    1. JJ BRIGHT SUNSHINE here. Blues Skies.
      Temperature is ROCKETING UPWARD in this SOUP!!!

      Up to 78.4 so far.

  33. Answer – B
    non weather topic – I met with an Aeroseal HVAC rep yesterday as we’re considering having the ducts in our 1889 home sealed. Has anyone had any experience with this product or know of anyone who might have? Blown-in insulation dust is the biggest issue, and if we can save a few dollars on the electric bill, that would be great too!

    1. Hi Shotime, I have heard of it and it looks like something I would be interested in doing to my own home. I am not sure of the cost though.

    1. Mrs. OS must be very excited for those lower dew points tomorrow! Make sure you take her out for lunch 🙂

      1. You got that right. She was just beginning to recover from
        the bullshit earlier this week, when dew points rose yesterday and bad air was in place again and she was just as sick all over again.

        BRUTAL. She has other health issues and when the weather becomes this horse shit, she suffers greatly. She is one of those
        ones to be checked and watched in this kind of weather.

        She has to live in 2 air conditioned rooms.

  37. Even the Gray, ME NWS office hints at a possible tornado:

    A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST TODAY IN THE
    VICINITY OF MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IF BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN
    DEVELOP.

  39. A July morning in September.
    Not unheard of. A bit ironic if nothing else.

    There are STILL a few messages being spam-flagged – techie will be looking into that this afternoon.

    Also, some of the messages in the Spam Folder went back to December last year and there were over 80,000 of them. The auto-delete feature was failing because it kept stopping at a missing url of some kind. That happened before, so the “fix” is for me to go and delete them 200 at a time (the limit in this silly program). I’ve been plugging away at it when I have time at the laptop, so it’ll take some time. That will make it easier for me to monitor the folder, unflag real messages and delete legit spam.

    My plans today keep me around until mid to late afternoon catching up on stuff around the house while monitoring the weather. After that I’m heading to the Hampton Beach Seafood Festival. We shall see if/how the storms impact that area. Fireworks tonight. Not a big deal if they got washed, I’m just more concerned with the safety of those up there. They have evacuation plans in place if they are needed. Enough warning and many can get to their cars to avoid a lightning threat. Also they have the ability to put people into the building with the Casino Ballroom and Funarama Arcade if necessary.

    There are some signs that we have a couple waves of storms coming through with this. To be honest, I think we either see isolated to scattered advance cells mid afternoon ahead of a main line mid to late afternoon and then a failed back-up line early evening that probably doesn’t do a whole lot. Timing earliest well N & W and of course later as you head toward Cape Cod. Details to be worked out and while not my favorite term in the weather world, nowcasting will be in use today.

    1. Thanks for the update, TK!
      Have a great day and stay safe enjoying the festivities and fireworks at Hampton Beach and/or Nature’s show!

  41. 12Z NAM CAPE

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014090612&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=006

    12Z GFS CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=018&fixhh=1&hh=015

    12Z GFS LIFT

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    12Z GFS EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      1. I don’t believe that for 1 second. I truly believe that this time
        around, the City is just as under the gun as inland areas.
        Look out the window. Stick your head out. It’s a YUCKORAMA
        out there. Instability parameters are through the roof!

        1. I agree with you!!! Just mentioned what the experts were saying 🙂
          If I remember correctly, didn’t the NWS have the city in a lower risk on the day of the Revere tornado?

          1. I’m not sure on that. The revere storm happened
            from warm front convection and shear associated
            with it. I think they totally missed that.

  43. found a new chart

    Here is a different 0-1KM EHI chart for today’s 12ZA NAM

    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/09/06/12/NAM_221_2014090612_F06_EHI_1000_M.png

    0-3KM EHI chart

    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/09/06/12/NAM_221_2014090612_F06_EHI_3000_M.png

    Surface to 500MB crossover

    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/09/06/12/NAM_221_2014090612_F06_WSPD_10_M_ABOVE_GROUND_500_MB.png

    Surface storm relative inflow

    http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/09/06/12/NAM_221_2014090612_F06_SRWSPD_10_M_ABOVE_GROUND.png

  45. Still shitloads off SUNSHINE here.

    Temperature up to 83.3

    10AM Boston Dew Point holding at 72 degrees! YUUUUCCCCCKKKKKK!!!!!!!

    Storm Fuelometer just burst!!! atmosphere is LOADED!!!

    best storm set up of the entire season.

    2. YIKES! – you’ve got that right OS!
      California’s drought has reached levels so high and widespread that it’s now the most severe drought ever recorded by the federal government in the state, according to new data released Thursday.
      The U.S. Drought Monitor, which began issuing drought reports in 1999, showed that the majority of the state is now in the worst category of drought conditions. Specifically, roughly 58 percent of California is considered to be in “exceptional drought”
      http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/01/3466597/california-severe-drought/

      1. When my brother in law was here in July he said he feels the drought in the San Francisco/Oakland area was worse. But I think that may have been early 1990s. He understands the overall drought conditions in the state are horrific.

        1. Vicki this is where the photo was taken:

          A section of Lake Oroville is nearly dry on August 19, 2014 in Oroville, California.(Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    4. I’m also not too impressed by the SST anomolies in the eastern Pacific, so I dont know about this years El Nino and the resulting rains this winter.

  51. The set up that produced the Revere tornado and today’s setup are 2 DIFFERENT animals with only some similarities.

    The amount of sun over the city right now does not have a major impact on what happens in several hours. That will play some role, but because it’s sunnier there now does not necessarily mean storms will survive to the coastline later. A lot of it is going to have to do with timing of a pre-frontal trough. Also, on a more local level, outflow boundaries from potential advance cells and outflow from any existing approaching line will play significant rolls as to what happens from town to town.

    1. Got that. So in your opinion, does Boston see any signifcant storms OR
      the usual DYING variety? Thanks

      OR could be either, no way to know at this time?

      1. I would like to see when/where convection fires, any advanced cells, where a line forms, what its outflow is like, etc.

    1. Those are actually remnants of storms from last night. Note the switch in radar mode showing that they are actually weaker than they first appear.

      1. Even after the switch, it shows them intensifying.
        Is there/will there be a pre-frontal trough that gives us
        the action? OR does the main action happen with the front
        later?

        Some models hint at main action ahead, while others split the action to ahead and then with the front.

        How does one determine which it will be? TX

  53. Another thing to keep in mind: Just because parameters are good over the entire region, does NOT mean the entire region will get whacked. If you get a decent line somewhere or a few strong cells that “satisfy” the atmosphere’s need for balance enough, then that’s all you get during that round. There will be parts of SNE that see little or no action today.

  57. Certainly Sunday-Tuesday will be a humidity break.

    But ….

    Wednesday into early Thursday, I’d think we’ll be back to 60ish dewpoints with an onshore flow because of retreating high pressure to our east and ……

    I think there’s potential for oppressive humidity again somewhere in the late Thursday-early Saturday timeframe next week, ahead of a cold front attached to what looks like a sub 1,000 mb low headed for the Great Lakes.

    Perhaps building a long term pattern of inside runners 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Maybe somewhere in far northern Minnesota and the Dakotas sees a bit of wet snow to the west of the storm track ??

  59. The 0z EURO and 12z GFS are in REMARKABLE agreement about a 992-994 mb low over Green Bay, WI next Wed night-Thursday morning.

    In addition to today, very active week of weather coming.

  60. Radar shows the old remains from last night’s activity passing to the north and continuing to weaken and die out. There is an existing trough line associated with this that we can POSSIBLY see new cells fire up on closer to the MA/NH border by 1PM or sooner.

  62. All the stratus clouds have burned off.

    Looking around, there is one orange tinted cumulus cloud to the north, not terribly tall, but still rather impressive looking.

    On my western horizon, I can see a few patches of broken mid level cloudiness.

    The wind is quite busy.

  65. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=boston%20radar&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fweather-radar%2Funited-states%2Fma%2Fboston%2Fbox%2F&ei=LD8LVM2cEcqmyASR9YLYDQ&usg=AFQjCNGSvs32TddWuuDFLz2Iz4jy1uyhSw&bvm=bv.74649129,d.aWw

    Storm that TK mentioned above.

    I get worried about these type of storms that develop quickly overhead and near the beach on warm to hot days.

    Based on my experience, people seek shelter from thunder/lightning when the storm exhibits it from far away.

    But occasionally, sometimes the initial lightning strikes can be as the storm is developing over your area.

    I hope we avoid lightning strike issues today.

      1. Neat webcam ! I’m glad that storm missed, but couldnt help but notice how many people were still on the beach.

          1. I know I overdue it and probably get off to quickly when I see a cumulus cloud 🙂 🙂 :), but I certainly wont be on the beach when big convective type rain drops are falling and its dark (even if the first lightning bolt hasnt happened ).

        1. You could see the follow up cell was gonna get them. The first cell became a supercell and split in 2.

    1. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
      WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
      ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
      A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

    2. The SE part of the watch box extends pretty far into SE Mass.

      Marshfield usually doesnt get into the watch box, which goes almost all the way to the Cape bridges.

          1. Yes and no (kind of).
            Yes because it shows you that the atmosphere at the time was conducive.
            No (kind of) because if the second area organizes into a squall line, the threat of rotation drops off, however the threat of straight line damaging wind would be in force.

            If the second line were to be a broken line, with individual cells more distinct, we could still see rotation in some of those.

  69. Was just out running some errands. OMG is it ever disgusting out there! Awful.

    Unless a storm pops up, we’re still at least 2 hours from any storms, perhaps even
    3 or 4 hours. Of course with this set up something could pop up ahead of those.

  71. Starting to get a hunch that the worst of what happens later may actually be from Worcester to the SW suburbs of Boston to northern RI and interior SE MA…….

    Doesn’t end the threat elsewhere, but just a feeling.

    2. Oh TK, you’re still out there.

      Question for you.

      Does this very BRISK surface wind contribute to storms in way?
      Curious.

      Thanks

      1. Not too directly unless the wind is directed into an outflow boundary and forced upward to help build a storm.

        It also helps with shear but that also depends on what’s going on above. So it’s more than just the surface wind.

        1. Oh to be sure, more than surface wind.
          i was just wondering if that strong winds would contribute
          to these storms or not. 😀

    1. Me too. Really hot.

      Answer: No

      It waqs 90+ yesterday and today. Need 3 days for official heat wave.
      Of course it was 93 on Tuesday, but they have to be consecutive.

      1. Yes I know you need the 3 days I was thinking Thursday was my mistake. Regardless it was a hot week working outside I can tell you that.

  76. Showers starting to pop all over the doppler radar. It really, to me, feels like the hottest day of the summer so far. Yesterday was a HHH day w/no thunderstorms – ok. That was enough for me. Looking forward to Fall now.

    1. Some tall ones outlined by sun just to our west and I saw the cirrus and wondered what that meant/was. Thanks Tom

    1. Hopefully it doesn’t get too bad….almost leaf season for you. I emptied my dehumidifier in the sump pump hole the other day just to test it. Get nervous since in March it was dead the first time the system needed to work.

      1. HA leaf season started weeks ago for me. I had to blow half a lawn bag worth of leaves out of my driveway today because we might get rain. Good thinking testing the pump…I did mine a few weeks ago.

  81. Cell South of Worcester is MOTORING towards Metro West and/or SW suburbs of Boston. Will it make it here? Probably a bit to the North. will be watching.
    Have to go pick up pizza in 1/2 hour.

  82. Cell near Greenfield on Rt. 2 looks fierce. It has a severe thunderstorm warning on it and it looks quite deserved.

    3. Yes, unfortunately.

      I ran downstairs and Barry is on.

      The number of lightning strikes he is showing with this cell(s) is amazing.

  87. Cell with no warning attached seems headed here from SW but due west behind the overcast is blue sky and sun

  88. I’m going mobile.
    First to chase, then to Hampton.

    I’ll report from the road if possible later!

  89. If you guys have evening plans would you mind canceling so you can stay and keep us advised……..I’m kidding….sort of

  92. Eric said with newest warning he would not be surprised if tornado on ground. 727 lightening strikes in last few minutes. Wow

  93. Barry and Eric are having a great discussion.

    Comparing this to what happened in Revere and Worcester and explaining the differences.

    1. Yes very good discussion. Also with the NWS. NECN totally missing the boat on this one and are doing infomercials.

    1. What area of pike longshot

      The cell headed this way is staying south and fizzled. With this kind of storm I like fizzle.

  95. I am following the Lawrence ob to see if in the next several minutes, they get a downdraft breeze from the NW. Currently still a SW wind.

    1. I think the severe threat is for a few hrs, but because the front lags behind, a couple showers are possible for a few hours afterward.

    1. If you have a minute and I understand if you do not, can you briefly explain what they are. Thanks but more important stay safe

    2. Great read Scott. Some above me but a good amount I understood. I saved it to my weather folder. Thank you for taking the time to find it and post

  101. Storms are staying just North of me though so far by a hair. Reports of widespread power outages in Fitchburg with 50 mph winds.

  102. Neat squall line seems to have formed and I think, should start to progress a bit more southeastward.

    Heading out.

    1. I was just going to post that. It is so dark, I looked out and it looks
      like Mammatus clouds out there to the NW!!! Wind really picking up as well.

        1. Cool pic OS. Our neighbor was out taking photos with lightning all around. I decided being inside was wiser 🙂

  106. Epic rain where I am…can’t even see out the window…just water. Anyone who thinks the Earth couldn’t be underwater after 40 days of rain would be a believer now.

  107. From Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher

    Dangerous storms rolling through. We’re looking into a possible tornado touchdown in southern NH. Also a ton of lightning, and two women are in critical condition after being struck on Crane Beach

  111. OUGHT OH!

    I “think” I see rotation on the storm rolling down Rt. 20 just about at junction
    of 27 and rt 20 in Wayland.

    1. Seems to have gone. Not getting smooth radar. It all of a sudden jumps
      several minutes ahead. Hard to tell what’s going on.

    1. My house felt like it would shake right off the foundation. Again, Woburn and this area always attracts this weather. Even the next several waves appear to be headed right to us like a bullseye.

  113. I see some clouds in that direction and hear rumbles but nothing much. Sky trying to break here and someone turned on outside AC. Off to check temp

      1. We were on the edge too shotime and stil got loud booms and vivid lightening and half an inch of needed rain.

  118. My Son is down town and lightning hit right across the street from him.
    Fire trucks on the way. I heard that one.

      1. I wouldn’t complain about that…I would have loved a miss. I think TK called it though…the south of Boston would see little to no action.

          1. Darn. We got .57 when all was said and done but I am never sure how much good it does when it is so hard it just runs off.

      1. I would personally like to thank charlie for making sure the Charlie hole did not extend to here. I had plants that badly needed watering and had no desire to water them. After all tomorrow morning I’ll be preparing game day food. Although sadly we had wanted to visit our daughter a and that didn’t work 🙁

  122. Answer to Today’s (a little bit dark) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which event kills more people each year?
    A. Lightning
    B. Floods
    C. Tornadoes
    D. Hurricanes

    The answer is B.

  125. No a dam drop here so I am watering as we speak. Two eldery woman struck by lightning at cranes beach In critical condition.

  126. Lots of lightning just to the south and west here. Some very vivid strikes. If I had to guess I would say over the South Weymouth/Derby Street/Queen Annes area. Seems to be moving ESE.

  128. We ate inside at the fairview for dinner and had a window table looking at the ocean and had some lightning. But what was getting people up was this huge pitch dark cloud almost like a very wide funnel cloud. People were just amazed . In marshfield still sitting in the parking lot of rite aid and quite the lightning display happening with just a tad bit of minimal light rain . Lighting is intense!!!

  129. Another Thunderstorm day loaded with juice and instability parameters through
    the roof only to get NOTHING!!! Not a SINGLE thunderstorm this whole season.
    I mean a real thunderstorm, not hearing nearby thunder, which has happened
    several times. 😀 😀 😀

    Now for a nice refreshing day tomorrow watching the Pats.

      1. Still nothing here. We just went out and walked for an hour. What a light show. We could see the lightening from that storm you are getting.

        1. Indeed the light show has continued at home just down the road . Rain had stopped and I just received a severe thunderstorm warning text till 9:45. We shall see.

  133. Pretty good lightning the last hour, has moved to the southern horizon.

    We got the eastern side of the storm and only light to moderate rain, perhaps .1 inch

    Now, the wind is calm, the streets are steaming and its stuffy.

  134. Here’s the warm stretch Logan has recorded the past 7 days beginning on Aug 31st, ending with today’s high temp of 92F.

    85F, 85F, 93F, 85F, 83F, 91F and today’s 92F.

    Our A/C has been on for the better part of the week.

    Without looking, I’m willing to guess that might have been the warmest 7 consecutive days of the summer.

  135. The one part of Barry and Eric’s on air discussion during the tornado warnings that I found fascinating was when they pointed out that with the improved radar technologies better seeing rotation within thunderstorms, there probably have been more tornado warnings.

    So, I’d think TV news stations over the coming years might have to grapple with the question ….. “Do we come on air for every tornado warning ?”

    My first instinct is …… of course !!

    However, I guess its becoming clear from the improved radar technologies that a lot of thunderstorms rotate.

    My concern going forward is the crying wolf mentality…… If we warn every rotating thunderstorm and they go live on TV, but say only 1 in every whatever actually translates into a tornado that reaches the ground, are we going to create a lack of seriousness towards the warnings and then …… get the real deal.

          1. Both along ma north border. Don’t know if there was a tornado but heard fair amount of damage. I’m surprised with the discussion here you were not watching.

  136. Can feel the air mass changing. We are out at dinner in dedham and decided to sit outside and it’s actually pleasant. At Aquatane in legacy place.

  138. Just came back from being out with a couple friends of mine who live in Foxboro and they were talking about how dry it’s been. I said its because of the Charlie hole. They were like what?!

  140. No, my hunch didn’t play out. It looked to me like the line that was setting up along the border of MA/VT/NH would flare then fall apart as a new one took over to the SW of Boston but the cells SW of Worcester never got their act together in time to take over the focus. The northern storms won out this time and only a smaller cluster was around later propagating southeastward on outflow from the northern storms.

    After a 90 minute lightning show on the way to and at Hampton Beach NH I was able to take a couple photos of lightning from the beach from the storms south of Boston! The visibility was perfect for it.

    1. Saw your pictures on FB. They are great. We always loved sitting on the shore and watching the lightning in the clouds from distant storms. Nothing beats nature’s light show!

  143. Its subtle, but seeing signs that the models this morning are ever so slightly backing off on the intensity of the cool airmass next weekend.

    Last night’s 68F Sat forecast on BZ has been replaced with 72F this morning.

    If the thrust of the cool air this autumn focuses on the central Plains or west, by the time the air gets to the east coast behind a cold frontal passage, it never ends up being as cool as it looked 4-5 days before.

  144. I haven’t seen anything about the possible tornado touchdown(s) yesterday.
    I presume they were not tornadoes. Anyone have more information?

    Sure is nice out there now. Only 71.2 and DRY!!!!!!

      1. A few Damage photos:

        Ispwich

        https://scontent-b-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/10646746_841272395906780_4205322524283014397_n.jpg?oh=1bbd069c82c6638b32bf060a77eaec7b&oe=54D0BDB6

        Dracut

        https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10689645_841276445906375_434611821712609135_n.jpg?oh=cf04471a6e454bb340cd333033eb8be7&oe=54D0A769&__gda__=1418835540_218aef7656fcc5f496532593bd6cbfec

        Lawrence

        https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10653496_841279349239418_112548930818500760_n.jpg?oh=37f19a53bea772e24c34652664a3a665&oe=5484387D

        Willmington

        https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10606510_841279379239415_3440430923053859951_n.jpg?oh=449cbf18955b11d2b620608acd9a72b8&oe=548CE961&__gda__=1418566923_867e972537d69c0738460dbd2552e6e9

    2. I saw a headline saying the NWS was headed to Ipswich to see if the damage was related to a micoburst or a tornado.

      1. I just saw something that said Ipswich was a micro burst
        estimated at 80-90 mph. Perhaps we’ll hear more later.

      1. I’m guessing something down the line (a tree) fell, pulled wires, and a pole went down. Very unusual to see a pole down without help.

        1. I can’t tell if it was one if the Many poles fixed with supports. That is illegal to leave but the utilities are cutting costs big time.

  147. It was really interesting that the storms just barely clipped the city of Boston overall. From the immediate Downtown northward (including Logan itself) there were the downpours, vivid lightning, etc. and south of that…little or nothing. At my house in Dorchester, it sprinkled for maybe all of 30 seconds and a couple rumbles of thunder with a clap of ligthning and that was pretty much it. It never really got all that dark either. Logan officially received 0.22″ in the storm while my back yard got barely a trace.

  148. Missing the game today due to a commitment ….

    10am Miami ob : 83F, dewpoint : 76F

    Good luck to the players on both teams with the weather.

    I’m always worried about the Pats in Miami, because they always struggle down there, even in years they have been good. And, it seems everyone is picking them in this game. Hope they win. 🙂

    1. I will be missing the game as well…I have to work today and the rest of the Sundays this month. Oh well.

      As long as I can watch the Pats in the playoffs and the Super Bowl. That is all what matters for me. 🙂

  149. The city of Boston itself has been VERY fortunate this summer in terms of severe storms….missing the Revere tornado and yesterday’s storm. Hopefully this is it for the year. 🙂

  150. Vicki, i was in Marlborough yesterday for a party, very close to Framingham. We had lots of thunder and lightning for a few mins and it was very close but very little rain. A brief downpour but after the thunder and lightning passed. Loudest thunder ive heard all summer.

    1. Interesting Chris. We are not far from the Marlboro border. The thunder was north as you said of us and not Loud here. Just averag. But we had half inch of rain. It downpoured but for maybe 30-40 min tops. And very strong gusts.

  151. I just approved 4 messages from 4 different people that were in the spam folder, and obviously not spam. So the process is still ongoing.

    I have 357 pages (200 per page) of spam messages to delete one page at a time still. I’ll rejoice when this task is done, and then hopefully by then have a fix to the random spam filtering. I think once I approve you, you should be able to post freely under whatever email address you are approved with. In theory, this is how this is supposed to be working, but for some reason, spam filtering is over-sensitive. 😛

    1. I have not had any problem once I was approved. Let me know if you want help TK. And thank you for your hard work

  152. Sudbury got hit w/torrential rain, incredible claps of really loud thunder, just a few brief gusts of wind and it got really dark w/fascinating cloud structures. Started out as a mackerel sky early on – then we got mammatus clouds. Our camera is broken and our cell phones don’t seem to take good pictures. I would have posted but the thunder and lightning was too fierce. It seems Sudbury and north of here keeps getting the storms. Does anyone have any meteorological reason why the storms have been fizzing out as they head south?

    Beautiful, refreshing day today.

      1. We were. My husband said he hadn’t heard thunder that loud and lasting so long in a long time. Even our cat got a bit nervous – and she usually doesn’t get that nervous w/thunderstorms.

  153. I think somone above mentioned ipswitch. Two people there on cranes beach were struck by lightning and one is in critical condition. Go pats !!!!

    1. They did not evacuate the water before the storm hit. They had time. The warning signs were there. The storm did explode as it reached the coast but an cell did exist on approach. The darkening sky should have been warning enough. They chose to ignore it. And I may sound uncaring, which is not the case, but if people want to survive weather, lower your risk.

      1. It isn’t uncaring at all. It is the truth. We had just mentioned on here how people do not get off the beach….in many cases when the storm is directly overhead

  154. Those with dog experience, is it a good idea to have many family members (8+) at the house when we bring our new pup home later today? Wife seems to want everyone there but im not sure this is the beat thing. I’ve read different things and cant keep all these things straight, lol

    1. It can be overwhelming to them but if they are not staying a long time and it will be quieter later I think you should fine. Want to give he/she time today to start to adjust to their surroundings. A puppy is like having a baby in the house for the first year. Good luck!

      1. Thanks North! I def dont want to overwhelm her. We wont be home with her till around 7 tonight so i didnt want her to be too stressed especially during a time when we’ll be trying to wind her down for the night

        1. If it is late at night she will have enough to get used to. She just lost her liter mates and will need to adjust to sleeping in your home. Are you using a crate? Is she already crate trained.

          1. Yes we will beginning crate training right away. As far as i know she hasnt ever been in a crate, shes 8 weeks old today

              1. Our cocker was crate trained when we got her ad with little kids in the house it was always her “safe” place to go Her breeder was amazing

                Rascal who we just lost was never a fan of the crate except when we got our cat. Once they became friends, the crate went away.

                First night in a new home can be scary. I wish you years of happiness. What a special day for you both

  155. Interesting show on TWC each Sunday at Noon. Weather Geeks. It has some good information and guests. Started in late July. Just going through the DVR and watching a couple.

  156. Here’s the deal.

    Yes the 10 degrees above normal first week of September is over and things are a little more seasonable for the upcoming week, but many are talking like the crisp chilly days of Fall are here. NOT SO FAST. We will be in a mild pattern overall for some time to come. Even when we bring troughs into the eastern half of the US the mean position will be west of here and we’ll be in upper level west to southwest flow more often than not. Not tapping big time chilly air out of Canada and dragging it right in here as long as the heights remain down in Greenland, and they will be that way for some time. So don’t drag out the winter coats quite yet, just have a sweater or jacket handy for the seasonably cool days that will be around, mixed with warmer ones.

  157. Before the fuse even gets lit:

    The 12z GFS is not going to verify regarding the hurricane approaching New England from the east.

    Next please!

    2. That is the disturbance that has a 60 percent chance of developing in the next 5 days. Long time to watch. If that happened it would be catastrophic coming from that direction. The GFS and its tropical craziness bias at 384 hours.

  158. Hadi, not sure how you are doing right now, BUT if you are well, up and about I need to ask you a GCT question. Thanks.

  160. Gronk looks very timid out there, seems afraid to get hit. Wished he played some in the pre-season to get used to the pounding of a real game

  161. A microburst was confirmed in Ipswich with 80-90 mph wind. The Worcester tornado topped at 75. Is a tornado more potent because it can travel or are both on average equally dangerous

    1. In this case the microburst was more potent.

      Of course a tornado traveling some distance can produce a longer damage path, making it the worse of the two in a general sense. Also not too many downburst get above 100 MPH. That would give further nod to the tornado being the worse of the 2, but again, in general. Not in every case as we see here. 🙂

      1. Thanks TK. Worcester was not on ground long so thought this microburst would be worse but you answered my question re on average. How long or wide an area is typical for a microburst. And sure are seeing out share of seriousness mixed with each storm setup

  162. Gronk yes!!! As I was saying here weeks ago we need him on the field. I think the pats look good and running game looking great.

  163. At halftime…feels like it’s getting a little warmer than expected…just checked and here in Hingham it’s up to 78 @ 2:45

  165. Vicki I really incourage you and Mac to try the fairview for dinner as I think you would both enjoy it. How is he feeling .

    1. The kids loved staying there last weekend. They didn’t eat there as it is too expansive but said it was packed. Mac is seeing progress each day. Thanks for asking :). Once Mac is up to it, maybe after first of year, we plan to stay there a couple of nights. And we will eat there.

  167. Pats look decent today, but I’d like to see a little more effort here in the 2nd half. Otherwise, I’m not worried at all.

    I have seen people writing the team off after the first series of the game. That’s LAUGHABLE.

    1. It is the quintessential New England fan. Love your team when it is doing well but hate it when it “lets you down”. Sorry Boston but your fans suck.

      I’d like to see less “hugging” the opponet around the neck but we look ok and I love this team!

    2. O-line has a Swiss cheese look to it. D-line giving up lots. Not writing them off and wouldn’t even they lost the first 4 games of the season, BUT BB is going to give them all hell for this win or lose.

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