7:29AM
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND DISCUSSION…
No big changes to this forecast other than to slow the timing down of the wet weather system for next week a little. Onshore flow continues today but with sun, especially inland, though ocean clouds win the battle late in the day after flirting with the coastline most of the day. By tonight and Saturday, it’s overcast as low pressure approaches from the west, but its rain will first arrive well to the west and hold off from reaching the eastern areas until late in the day and evening. Some drizzle and areas of fog may occur before that due to low level moisture from the ocean. The cold front from the west clears the whole mess outta here by Sunday morning and Sunday will be a great Fall day. Nice weather with a warming trend for next week as the flow turns southwest. Another front crosses the region Wednesday with showers.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun inland, clouds/sun coast, then clouds advancing inland late. Highs from near 60 coast to near 65 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle overnight. Lows in the 50s. Wind light E.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. A band of rain arriving from west to east late afternoon into the night with a slight risk of embedded thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 65.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.
Thanks TK !
Couple inches of new snow on the Kimmirut Web cam.
Thank you TK and good morning all.
Yes, I have done it. I threw a coat on yesterday morning and today as well.
I gave in. π
Low overcast in Boston. Presumably what’s left from an earlier fog bank?
Looks like the sun wants to burn that off fairly quickly.
Have a good one all.
Good morning and thank you, TK.
Happy Friday all and thank you TK!
Westwood High School evacuated for a bomb threat. There have been a minimum of 7 bomb threats between CT, MA, & NH this week. They need to get to the bottom of this…
Hadn’t heard. Thank you.
Who/what is behind all of this?
Question of the hour OS!
I don’t think there any more bomb threats in schools today versus the 1970s. We just hear about every single one now. Back then it was word of mouth in the town and maybe a blurb on page 5 of the local paper the next day.
You may be right. I remember we had so many in a short period at Belmont high that they stopped evacuating. The parents went nuts. The difference perhaps is that we did not have mass shootings back then
Good point. Given the string of them just seems all too coincidental this week with everything going on. For example one was in Bedford, NH and Bedford, MA on the same day…Probably a horrible prank, but who knows. They won’t take any chances.
Interesting Herald Article claiming Amendola had off season surgery.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2014/10/danny_amendola_underwent_surgery
I bet Bill will deny that too π
It may go a long way to explaining WHY this guy can’t get open.
So, in my mind, this story makes a great deal of sense.
Silly me!
Sun never made it out in eastern sections. Not gonna hit 60 either today.
Nope. Our only shot at seeing the sun this week has passed till at least sometime on sunday.
Agreed. Checked satellite and it was clear the clouds rolled
back in from the ocean storm and will stay until clouds from
the West take over. π
Sun has been out here all day
We are 59.7. It is a glorious day here
Just as I read this, the SUN peeked out here. π π π
Of course, it has since gone back behind the clouds. π
The only hint of clearing we had hear was around 10am when i saw some blue skies in between the clouds. Now the cloud deck is thick with no sign of blue
Woburn/Reading area has been 40% sunny, 60% cloudy today. Right now we’re mostly cloudy but clear sky visible to the SW and has been for the last couple hours. The visible satellite loop says it all today.
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&isingle=multiple&itype=vis
Yup, that about sizes it up.
The clouds dissipating in central NY State look neat. Almost like they are going over a cliff into a void of dry air, which in a way is exactly what is happening there.
There may be a sliver of bonus sunshine that makes it closer to the coast between 4 and sunset (not the entire time, probably briefly). There is a little parcel of dry air working down from the coast of Maine that may serve to erode away the western edge of the stratus for a short while especially north of Boston. Shortly after that a slight shift of wind more to the E combined with the loss of the sun will allow the stratus deck to drive straight inland.
Where did the stratus deck get its license? We should revoke it.
But I thought stratus overcast on northeast wind was your FAVORITE. π
Mine???? Huh? Where’d you get that.
ONLY if it is dropping Ocean Effect snow. π
I was being sarcastic. π
As of 3:45PM, bright & sunny at Hampton Beach.
Rough surf. I did see one person walking barefoot in the water.
http://www.hamptonbeach.org/webcam.cfm
This image tells the story of the day
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Satellite/Visible.aspx?location=USNH0045
NWS for tomorrow:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/10294979_689488097812231_4582632500616622556_o.png
I absolutely HATE this guy, but still, this is an interesting read about Brady:
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/football/patriots/kirk-minihane/2014/10/02/uncomfortable-reality-fading-tom-brady
Maybe maybe not. He can’t bring up the yards if he ain’t got nobody to throw to or folks to protect him.
CPC 6-10: Warm & wet.
CPC 8-14: Warm & slightly wet.
Some light drizzle has redeveloped.
Same here. Everything is wet and measure .01.
Sun here all day. 63 high. Overcast here since about 5:30. As I drove east on rt 20 a while ago was surprised at the overcast I could see in distance.
Also wondering where rainshine is π
Todayβs 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
Which of the following is the key to growing giant pumpkins?
A. 80 degree temperatures by day
B. Full exposure to sunshine
C. Rain at night
D. All of the above
I got this wrong. BTW, I think the biggest pumpkin ever recorded is over 2,000 lbs.
___________________________________________________________
Todayβs 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
Which factor MOST greatly affects the acorn crop? (All these factors do affect the crop.)
A. Spring temperatures
B. Rainy days during pollination
C. Summer drought
D. Heat waves
I also got this one wrong.
__________________________________________________________
Todayβs 3rd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
Epic forest fires destroyed a large chunk of the state of Maine in β¦
A. 1947
B. 1967
C. 1987
D. 2007
I got this one right. Answers later today.
D B A????
Saw that the winner of the biggest pumpkin was over 1900 lbs at the Topsfoeld Fair yesterday!
B,B and A
ANd I haven’t a clue. π
Wow three – Thank you, Longshot
1=B; 2=C; 3=A
Some are complete guesses
B, C, B
I feel an 0 for 3 coming here. π
Oh I’m Sure I took an o Fer. π
Was out last night and drove home through an unreal THICK drizzle about
11PM. STILL rather wet out there now. 57.4 We will see 60 today?
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
I noticed the wording in today’s discussion regarding today’s chances for severe. Very, very low, but still non-zero and the word spin-up is mentioned.
Discussion from Taunton NWS.
Wow! Thanks Tom.
Here is the Helicity chart:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100403/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif
But NOTHING showing on the SREF tornado ingredients or parameter charts.
Now there’s some severe looking storms out there! NOT!
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX
Indeed ! Lets hope it stays that way.
I love the weather underground radar. I almost can use the NWS radar anymore because I find this radar was more up to date and I just feel as though the image is better and the picture it paints just seems a bit more reflective of precip intensity.
Can = cant
Agree totally. I use the NWS display to get the big wide out picture, but use the underground Nexrad for anything close up and current.
And thank you OS for the helicity chart !
I can’t fins the EHI charts that we used to get. Must
be a Spring/Summer thing with that model site???
http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00&lang=en
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/19E/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
Simon. Looking like this thing may make major hurricane status.
If I recall correctly, a couple days ago, it wasnt forecast to become a hurricane during its life span. Everything is overacheiving in the eastern Pacific this season.
Pretty healthy looking. Fortunately, for the most part, these Pacific storms
blow out over the fish, only very occasionally moving over Baja.
Here is another interesting article on Brady by Adam Kaufman.
Very well done and a better perspective than that guy Minihane.
http://www.boston.com/blogs/sports/columnists/kaufman/2014/10/espn_report_told_you_tom_brady_terrible_patriots.html
I don’t think it is rocket science. Brady is older. He will not perform as he did years ago or even in the last year. We all decline with age. He could carry the team when younger. The common sense – which seems to be escaping BB – is that as he ages, he needs more support because he simply cannot carry the team nor should anyone expect him to. It isn’t really about whether Brady is failing as much, again in my opinion, as whether BB is failing to give him the talent he needs and therefore failing Brady.
Vicki, AMEN. Exactly
I’m not even sure it is BB. It may be the Krafts.
Compare what Manning has at his disposal to what Brady
has. Patriots management is asking the IMPOSSIBLE!!!
Excellent point – could stem from the Krafts and actually makes more sense as BB’s legacy is tied up in this too. I get chills when I see what Manning has vs Brady. It is actually tragic.
DCD. Enjoy the day everybody,
DCD = ?????? huh?
quiz
π Since it was NOT posted under the Quiz post, I did not go there, nor would I ever. π
On this date back in 1987 several inches of snow fell in parts of northeast.
Here is an article from WXedge.com two years ago about this early season snowfall.
http://wxedge.com/articles/20121004historic_october_4th1987_snowstorm
I remember that event quite well. A whole lot of snow in the mountains of western New England. Maximum amounts were 1 to 2 feet in some of the highest elevations.
This map is not great quality but gives you an idea of the gradient of snow amount with height.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/1987_Oct/SnowMap.JPG
A, B, A
Regarding giant pumpkins, why do they lose their “orange” color?
Too much water in them?
They sure don’t look like pumkins, more like fat oversized blobs of uselessness.
I’m still laughing – I love your descriptive way of writing OS!
15 days ago my friend that works at DD’s texted me and said her manager wanted her to work on October 4 because he needed the day off. My friend is a shift leader and she can basically run the place herself. So I told her that was fine and we can postpone the plans to go to Six Flags New England until October 11 or 18 because it was going to be a wet day on October 4. Who says we can’t medium range forecast with any accuracy? π
Teeheehee.
π π
Nice
TK, do you think a storm threat with possible tropical connections is possible this month? I thought I remembered you saying something like that awhile ago but I could be wrong. The 12z GFS shows a storm forming in the Caribbean, moving north, and interacting with other systems already over the US to create a sizable storm for us in 12 days or so. Any chance of that?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100412/gfs_z500_mslp_us_41.png
FFF SHORE WINDS would be hurricane strength IF that would come to be:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100412/gfs_mslp_wind_us_41.png
didn’t TK mention something a few days ago about a tropical storm in our future
12Z CMC would take it well off shore from us:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014100412/gem_mslp_wind_eus_41.png
Regarding the threat from the tropics: We have to watch both the Gulf (especially eastern Gulf including Florida) as well as the East Coast for a potential tropical system in the middle of October. That is what I indicated previously and the same thinking remains in place at this time.
π π π
So pumpkin Fest weekend is in jeopardy?
This looks different from earlier:
US National Weather Service Boston MA
Increasing low level southeast winds just above the surface is resulting in airflow up & over the higher terrain of Western βͺ#βCTβ¬ = heavy rain
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX
I found this photo to be fascinating:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10574431_786090088096486_4814888532123104774_n.jpg?oh=b002dfd61726e245b7aa6fb0dac6b855&oe=5483E070&__gda__=1422487066_77ccffddce905877535848434e6626b3
It is settling, OS. I found myself just looking at it and relaxing.
I realize that the radar looks a little anemic, but the rain echoes that we will see have not formed yet. Watch what happens when the low level moisture from offshore races to meet the advancing front…
Firehouse of Moisture? That’s a new one. π
US National Weather Service Boston MA
Showers nearing the CT/RI border at 2 pm. Firehouse of moisture off the ocean will result in numerous showers in RI & Eastern MA 3 pm – 9 pm
BOSTON (CBS) β According to multiple reports, the Boston Bruins have traded veteran defenseman Johnny Boychuk to the New York Islanders for multiple draft picks.
‘Tis true.
Little tribute to John Candy to the music of Jimmy Buffet (one of my favorite Buffet tunes)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV0nwotenXg
I’ve always liked Buffet, and Candy.
Like buffet…Chesney…many of them
Oldsalty my wife is a huge parot head. Been to a few concerts but way to much drinking going on there for me.
Patriots released Kenbrell Thompkins…
Well I managed to get 2 out of 3 wrong so here it is.
Todayβs 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
Which of the following is the key to growing giant pumpkins?
A. 80 degree temperatures by day
B. Full exposure to sunshine
C. Rain at night
D. All of the above
The answer is A.
___________________________________________________________
Todayβs 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
Which factor MOST greatly affects the acorn crop? (All these factors do affect the crop.)
A. Spring temperatures
B. Rainy days during pollination
C. Summer drought
D. Heat waves
The answer is A.
___________________________________________________________
Todayβs 3rd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
Epic forest fires destroyed a large chunk of the state of Maine in β¦
A. 1947
B. 1967
C. 1987
D. 2007
The answer is A.
Thanks longshot.
Welcome
Johnny Boychuk gone from the B’s and Kenbrell Thompkins gone from Pats. I don’t understand any of this.
BB saying we will be below to much below temps wise. Still unsure of snow as he is waiting to see more info.
The only BB below normal is Bill Belichick.
Or is OS right that it goes higher?
Than him and tk don’t agree. I believe tk is thinking warmer for the rest of the yr with minor cold shots . I believe the cpc is showing above as well, I’m sure Barry is a great guy but met wise he just does not do it for me.
I’ve heard many say little to no snow before the new year π
We had a few downpours a bit ago that brought us to .25
Pouring rain here now.
I’m not sure I’ve seen more winter outlooks more different than this upcoming winter, I’ve heard anywhere from above to much above temp wise, to below normal temp wise, let’s go with the majority and hope for above average.
Todayβs AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.
Which of the following four air masses was stuck over NE last week giving us cool and damp air?
A. Maritime tropical air
B. Maritime polar air
C. Continental tropical air
D. Continental polar air
Answer later today.
B
B. Thank you longshot
B
B
B
Those sports releases are a mystery to me.
I really can’t comment much on boychuk. Sad.
Re: KT
He’s pretty good. But with Bryan Tyms soon to be activated, they had a glut of
receivers (now there’s an oxymoron), so they chose one to be released. (TK does not contribute to special teams). Sure can live with this as opposed to Mankins.
Sure looks nice out there. 54.5 here now.
I really don’t know what to expect with tonight’s Pats game. I really don’t.
I don’t know what team will show up. I don’t know what Brady will show up.
Would be nice to see a W tonight. π
The way I look at it is there are always positives. First positive…football season is here. Second positive…we have a team the country has envied for a century. Third positive….if they don’t show up to the game, I don’t stress over whether to go to sleep before its end π
Latest GFS incantation of the tropical system mid-month
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100506/gfs_mslp_wind_us_39.png
That is something to keep an eye on.
Good luck to your Patriots tonight.
Hoping my Cowboys win the battle of Texas today and win their 4th straight against the Texans
Take a look at this report from ESPN on Brady:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/05/report-brady-uncomfortable-with-changes-to-patriots-personnel-and-coaching-staff/
Whether the Pats win or lose tonight they are in trouble for the longer run UNLESS Kraft and BB recognize the wakeup call. They are in the middle of many adjustments … too many … but there is no choice because they got themselves in a hole. The Pats management and coaches are victims of their own hubris.
As for me, I am totally upset about the Bruins. They are going to have to play unbelievable hockey to even get near The Cup. They will need to play over their own heads this season. Losing Boychuk! UGH!!
I’m totally with you Longshot.
When will team owners learn that they will MAKE
more money with a better team. You have to spend
some money to make money. I’m sick of Management
CHEAPING OUT!!! Yes Robert Kraft I Mean YOU!
“Make more money with a better team..” I think my grandkids can grasp that concept. And I am not sure kraft is so stupid he can’t. Any why would BB want to ruin his rep? So what’s up ? Are they forcing Brady out? He seems to be getting more vocal…..vocal for Brady that is.
Something is clearly up. I don’t think it is BB as I have said before. This comes from
the TOP! ALL companies ROT from the top down.
I sooooooo agree
This is not an easy game for the Patroits tonight and as I said earlier in the week I would not be surprised if there 2-3. The Bengals beat the Patriots last year in Cincinnati and that game ended Brady’s consecutive streak of at least one touchdown pass.
Simon is a Cat 2.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Is this an unusual number of hurricanes in that area or am I just noticing because nothing is going on here?
This year is tied for most major hurricanes in a year in the Eastern Pacific right now.
Latest 12Z GFS takes the tropical system into Florida and then drifts it SE and then
off the coast.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100512/gfs_mslp_wind_us_39.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014100512/gfs_mslp_wind_us_47.png
Almost looks like 2 different storms.
Nope, same one.
Any other models have this?
Reason i ask is its not like TK to rely on the GFS π
NOPE. Well the NavGem has it. The CMC has it and others. π π π
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014100512/gem_mslp_wind_watl_41.png
Lat night’s FIM has it
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014100500/244/3hap_sfc_f240.png
From Weei re: Brady:
“….others close to the team now believe that when the Patriots used that second-round pick (in 2014) on Jimmy Garropolo that they were, in fact, choosing Bradyβs successor, perhaps sooner than later.”
http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2014/10/05/tom-brady-reportedly-uncomfortable-with-his-personnel-leading-to-tensions-with-coaching-staff/
I don’t think Brady wants out and I don’t think he would be getting more vocal if he were part of decision????
If he knows things aren’t going to change, he could very well
want out. I would.
Nice!!! 61.7 here with an absolutely beautiful day! Love it.
I think we are going to see a very fired up Brady for the game tonight.
Let’s hope so. We shall see. As I said earlier, I have no idea what we will get.
I have never thought he did well when emotional. His emotions tend to get in his way. But I’d love to see him come out and stick a ball (she said euphemistically) in the face of kraft and anyone else including fans who are so quick to blame a player who has given them years of the best football this area has seen
Hmmmmmm perhaps I’m a bit upset about this…….
Interesting article
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2014/10/05/tensions-exist-between-brady-coaching-staff-per-espn-report/H9zOhAKqC9Y1Y3I71FEBTN/story.html?p1=trending_article_page_1
ESPN article
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/11646779/tension-tom-brady-new-england-patriots-impact-quarterback-future-team
Thanks Keith. So when Brady finally voices an opinion, the powers that be make an example of him? I am guessing of course. And still angry….
Agreed….But remember “It’s the Patriot Way” π
Well its the kraft way for sure. This time the fans are not going to sit quietly. And I think for the first time they anger will be directed at the management and not the players…..I hope
Thanks Keith I just got done reading it. How could Brady not be unhappy as they just keep taking everything around him that’s good. BB has just made horrible decisions and kraft just lets him. I will never get over them letting welker go. If there was a rift between welker and bill as seems to be the case it’s krafts job to step in and resolve it, letting him walk hurt the pats in a bigtime way. Mankins again horrible. This line can’t protect Brady the way they should. Any team would grab Brady. If you don’t take care of your qb what is the qb to think. I love my pats but clearly something is not right and a lot of that is internal. Kraft has a Ton of money he ought to use it before things go further downhill. Pats need to win tonight as bills won again. If pats loose tonight it’s going to be a long week coming up and I believe next week is buffalo.
John I agree. Brady kept his thoughts to himself while the decisions caused the team to crumble around them. Many of the fans….me included….tried to accept. Something I would do again. But when the management decisions starts to hurt the team and especially the QB that same management owes so much to, it is more than upsetting.
I loved this comment …”One team source told ESPN that a conservative approach is necessary and said everyone needs to be patient to allow the team and staff to get on the same page. Brady’s declining performance also has been cited internally, a source told ESPN.”
How do we remain patient when it keeps getting worse.
I hear you John. My problem with letting players go is what they replace them with. I think I’ve mentioned this before but the Red Sox are much better at this (and will be again this coming season imho) than the Patriots are. The Patriots claim they worry about the “cap” but then still come in millions under the cap…and then they wonder why people question them.
On the other Charlie is right about one thing and that is for the better part of the last dozen years they have been the best overall time in the NFL and as sports fans we’ve been lucky to enjoy that. It was the same for fans of the Celtics from the late 50s through the late 60s and again in the 80s.
Finally I think the Sox will win another WS before the Pats win another SB. Just my humble rant π
OS, that tropical system comes up south of Cuba around hour 192 on the GFS, which makes it a bit more believable. Usually the bias is at hour 240 and beyond of showing these. Now it is showing it under 200 hours. It then is still around off the SE coast at at hour 384! Very slow mover on that run. The low although weak is showing up down there now on the GFS off the coast of Northern South America. Could get interesting in the tropics.
In this direction, North? And it sure does sound like a slow mover.
Not right now but as TK said worth watching.
Cool. We could sooo use a watched. Thanks North
ECMWF = decent 12z run.
GFS = ok thru 240, then confused.
Working on The Week Ahead post.
And it’s posted!