Small Surprise In A Big Package

121 Comments

6:08PM

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND DISCUSSION…
As a large upper level low pressure continues to spin in east central Canada and the north central USA through the middle of the week, it will send some action our way in the form of developing surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley Tuesday. This low will intensify fairly quickly and move northeastward into the St. Lawrence Valley by Tuesday night then northward deeper into Canada by Wednesday. Its broadening circulation will first send a batch of mild and more humid air into southern New England on Tuesday as a weak warm front moves through during the morning and midday. A few showers may occur with this, but otherwise it will just send lots of clouds through the region. A few bands of showers will form well northwest of Boston during the day but it looks like this activity will never make it further east than southwestern NH and north central MA before it dissipates. The main push of wet weather that is destined for southeastern New England is going to be from an occluded front trailing from the parent low pressure area. This front will swing through the region in the pre-dawn to shortly-after-dawn hours of Wednesday, and will be accompanied by a band of rain and possible thunderstorms, and potentially strong wind gusts. This will be watched as it gets closer to occurring. Once this area crosses, it will be followed by gusty west winds, drying but still mild air during the day, a mix of clouds and sun, and a slight risk of a passing additional shower. By Wednesday evening, it will turn significantly cooler behind a trailing trough. Cool and dry weather is expected Thursday along with a gusty breeze as the broad low pressure area continues to push across southeastern Canada. Friday, a small wave of low pressure will bring more cloudiness and the chance for some light rain, depending on its track. This should move right along and evacuate the region in time for high pressure to move in for the weekend, which looks nice. By the start of next week, this high should be shifting offshore and a warm-up will be underway.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers through midday. Chance of additional showers far northwest of Boston in the afternoon. Highs upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a band of showers and possible thunderstorms west to east early morning, perhaps to mid morning Cape Cod, then mixed sun and clouds with a slight chance of passing showers. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, possibly strong gusts with passage of rain band, shifting to W 15-30 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Clouds linger southeast, sunnier northwest. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 40. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs around 70.

121 thoughts on “Small Surprise In A Big Package”

    1. Just because of timing we may end up with a fairly narrow swath of heavy rain and embedded thunder and only local strong wind gusts. Midday to late afternoon timing would be more volatile. System is a little bit similar to the one that produced Windsor Locks, just a little further north with the center and a bit weaker.

  2. 35 years ago last Thursday that F4 tornado hit Windsor Locks, CT. The week after parts of CT had accumulating snow.

    1. Just shows you how volatile and changeable weather can be, and many people don’t realize that the extremes like that are not just recent events, but span our entire but relatively short history of observing weather.

  3. Thanks tk 🙂 I see you have highs of 70 degrees next week, I heard channel 5 say and they agree with you that low 70’s next week for highs r possible. I say keep it coming, 2-3 weeks and the color of the trees will be peaking. 🙂

    Happy Halloween!! Lol 🙂

      2. Let’s keep that warm air right through the winter . Grab the fans and push , push and push warm in here.

          1. No 🙁 – Mac can’t do stairs yet – but hopefully in spring. Odd you mentioned it as both my daughter and I woke up with the feeling we wanted to go there

              1. Getting stronger, John!! He has another scan on the 17th so we will see how his treatment is working. Thanks for asking.

  4. Hmmm

    09Z SREF Significant Tornado Ingredients for 09Z Wed.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100621/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

    0-1Km Helicity

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100621/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f012.gif

    0Z NAM EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=033

    0Z CMC EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=033

  5. Looking at the SREF significant tornado ingredient link you posted Old Salty the area being highlighted is greater than the previous run. When this model which has done a good job this past summer is indicating that its a situation that needs to be watched.

  6. NWS out of Taunton highlighting the region in the hazardous weather outlook saying there continues to be a low to moderate risk for strong thunderstorms particularly overnight. Heavy rain strong winds will be the primary threat but an isolated tornado or small hail cannot be ruled out.

    1. 03Z 0-1km helicity

      09Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f006.gif

      12Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f009.gif

      Significant Tornado Parameter

      9Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f030.gif

      12Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__

      This is all significant. A real watcher and the worst part is it will be
      in the early morning hours while most are sleeping or just arising, 5-8 AM.

      SCARY thought.

  9. The SREF has been consistent now for a few runs with the significant tornado ingredients. For the second consecutive run its showing the number 30 inside the number 15 for areas from the I-91 corridor in CT east to include parts of RI.

  10. From Taunton NWS office

    .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/…
    — Changed Discussion —
    * POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT *

    THEREFORE…STRONG GUSTY WINDS
    ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY T-STORMS OR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE FRONT THANKS TO THE 50 KT OF WIND JUST OFF THE DECK. HOWEVER EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN THE LOW- LVL SHEAR…INCREASING NEAR-SFC MOISTURE AND FOCUSFOR LOW LVL VORTICITY WILL ALL BE PRESENT. POCKETS OF HAIL CAN/T BE RULED OUT EITHER IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS WHERE ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE NOTED.

      1. JJ – thanks for the post and OS – thanks for the links.

        OS – on the links it says “see text” but I can’t find the text?

        1. Vicki, those were just the map images. Here is the text
          for our area:

          NRN MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS OVERNIGHT…THE OH VALLEY SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED WHILE MOVING NEWD TOWARD NY…AND AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LIKEWISE…THE TRAILING FRONT/TROUGH WILL
          SHARPEN AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
          PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
          FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK BUOYANCY
          ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND WILL SUPPORT A PRIMARY RISK FOR DAMAGING
          GUSTS WITH A QLCS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY…AS LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
          AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASE OVERNIGHT

  11. The new update for day one will be out just before 9AM then updated around 12:30 pm
    The day two outlook has eastern areas of SNE in the general thunderstorm risk area. At 1:30 pm today the day two outlook will be updated.

  12. Came on here this morning to see talk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. I thought it was mid-summer for a minute, lol.

  13. TK,

    A very serious question. I don’t mean to be alarmist or anything and I would ask later with newer information, but just in case you don’t have a chance to respond or
    I am tied up and can’t see it, I’ll ask now.

    In all seriousness, how do we deal with this risk, however small it may be?
    Do we just go to bed and get up at the usual time and “assume” nothing bad
    happens in our respective areas? OR do we set the alarm for like 4AM and get up
    and watch the radars, the radial velocities and NWS warnings for any possible rotation and take action when/if necessary. I mean what do we do?

    This night time severe threat is very very rare around these parts. Frankly I have a bit of Fright about this situation. I’m not shaking in my boots, but I AM quite concerned.

    As always, many thanks for your valuable input.

      1. Sure, that will really help!!

        The NWS warns a tornado AFTER it has already HIT!!!!

        We KNOW about a possible tornado BEFORE any warning comes out.

          1. Now you’re talking.

            SPC has risk farther South than the SREF.
            Waiting on 09Z update from SREF to see
            IF it has any changes over the 03Z version. 😀

    2. Not I. First, I would miss the early sunsets of fall/winter. Second, and more important, I am willing to bet that folks (as they did in the 1970s) will like the late sunrises far less. We literally sat in our office window at 8:00ish in January 197? and watched the sun rise.

      1. Why do you think it should change, Charlie? Do you prefer going to work in the dark and having it remain dark until 8:00 am? It was proven not to save energy dollars back in the 1970s so I’m curious why we would change.

        1. I do agree, it sucks to go to work in the dark. But i agree with some of the points in the article relating to the physical and psychological benefits of switching time zones. We are technically the same time as the AST for half the year anyways.

    1. However, here is the text on the day 2 outlook:

      …SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY…
      A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WED MORNING DUE TO INTENSE LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT AND WITH MOISTENING OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS…BUT A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO REMAIN CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE. THIS EARLY THREAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY ERN MA AND PERHAPS RI.

    1. Thanks for all the links OS and for staying on top of this situation. Something tells me you will be up very early tomorrow morning monitoring everything.

      1. I don’t know. I don’t want to over do it, but it is possible, depending on how it looks by tonight.

        Btw, Kudos to Coastal who was the FIRST here to point out
        the Tornado possibilities. I just ran with it from that point. Up to that point, I had NO CLUE. 😀

    2. Been sprinkling here on and off this morning also.

      Temp is hovering around 70 but the breeze is really nice and the dark clouds make it feel very fallish.

  21. FWIW, the 12Z NAM shows elevated instability (CAPE over 1000) around
    14Z tomorrow. I’m wondering if the main action now comes a little later.
    Simulated reflectivity shows action from about 3AM all the way to about Noon.

    I’m not sure the models have this nailed down just yet. Still in a state of flux, it seems.

    1. I didn’t mean that it was “elevated” Instability (although I think that is present as well), but I meant that the CAPE values were higher then.

  22. 12Z NAM EHI

    12Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=021&fixhh=1&hh=024

    15Z

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=024&fixhh=1&hh=027

    Best Cape and LI is at 06Z

    06Z EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=018&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=018&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    06Z CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=018&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=018&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  23. Regarding any time change, I propose we set our clocks back come early November and keep them there on EST permenently and not set them forward in March ever again. Our sunrises will almost always be bright for most of the year.

    For example, here is a sunrise/sunset for early summer under EST:

    Sunrise: 4:07 am
    Sunset: 7:25 pm

    My bet is there would be far fewer early morning accidents overall.

      1. Good point. Except I worry more about kids standing at bus stops in the pitch dark. Also, what do we do when we are the only state that doesn’t change? Lots of folks work in a different state from where they live.

        1. It would be good for our economy. The drunks will cross state lines for last call.

          Because of the darkness in the morning the state will have to install a new exterior lighting system for walkways and streets near the schools.

          Win…..Win…..

          1. Most schools already have good lighting as there are many evening activities. Lights are impossible. Kids walk from a mile and stand on main streets for buses everywhere.

  26. Have been Watching the HRRR model. Will post some maps as the hour gets closer
    to the action. Only out to 04Z right now as it only projects 15 hours from run
    initiation. But I have to say, it is giving hints at Major Helicity, Major Bulk Shear with Decent CAPE 1,000+ and decent Lifted indices at around -4 or so. In short, enough
    to cause some serious problems.

    This situation STILL needs to be watched carefully.

    More later. Have to run for a few hours. 😀

  27. OS… Assuming they get warnings out on time, NOAA Weather Radio with alarm is the best bet still.

    1. Yes very gusty indeed. Brief rain shower with some huge raindrops here in Walpole. Strange feel to the weather today.

      1. I was just out and it is beautiful out, however, as mentioned above it is unbelievably Windy. I was just in downtown Boston and the wind funneling among the buildings is unreal. Gusting Well into
        the 30s for certain.

        We’ll see IF anything happens at all overnight.

    1. Also schools across the state are encouraging kids to walk to school Wednesday morning in an iWalk program. Bad timing which of course could not be foreseen.

  30. Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 2m2 minutes ago

    SPC on SNE “CONFIDENCE DIMINISHING THAT STORMS POSE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS…WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES”

    1. Interesting. That would be very good.

      However, here is the latest 09Z SREF

      Significant Tornado Ingredients

      09Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100709/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f024.gif

      12Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100709/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f027.gif

      Significant tornado parameter 09Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100709/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f024.gif

      Helicity

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100709/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f024.gif

      1. 12Z CMC EHI at 09Z

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=024&fixhh=1&hh=021

        CAPE

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=018&fixhh=1&hh=021

        LI

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=LI&hh2=024&fixhh=1&hh=021

        12Z EHI

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=021&fixhh=1&hh=024

        It seems that the CMC wants to shunt the action off to our
        South. We shall see.

        1. Current HRRR runs would refute the CMC.
          It is now out to 07Z and is showing LI between -2 and -4 with Capes near 1000 and Helicity between 200-400.

    2. Here is the text from the SPC:

      …SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…
      12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO NY/NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER…CONFIDENCE IS
      DIMINISHING THAT THESE STORMS WILL POSE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS…WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR THE REGION IN THIS ISSUANCE.

      1. Not sure the original discussion ever included “organized” severe weather as is usually the case in SNE anyways. But the wording seems to diminish the threat when the threat is most definitely there.

        1. The SPC acts very strangely sometimes. Not sure what is
          going on there. I won’t let my guard down until I am certain the threat is gone. Right now it appears to still
          be there. We shall see.

  31. Tough to ignore the SREF which has been consistent in showing the region in the significant tornado ingredients and those helicity values. I don’t think were looking at a big severe weather outbreak but could get a few strong and a locally severe storm somewhere in SNE.

    1. Much like the majority of times here. I cant remember the last time we had a true widespread severe weather outbreak. The revere tornado was a very isolated severe weather event along with a few others this spring/summer. It’s been very difficult getting anything widespread in here anyways.

  32. Vicki, i didn’t consider the kids being at the bus stop/walking to school in the dark. My high school days started at 7:15am. Thats not at the bus stop, that was first period start time. I was at the bus stop at 6:15am. It was pretty dark out at that time for a good part of the school year anyways.

    1. It was NEVER dark when I went to school. Classes started about 8:10 AM.
      Starting school at 7:15 AM is INSANITY. 😀

    1. Elementary here starts at 9:15 – can’t remember high school. But that means elementary kids are standing at the bus stop on main streets in the dark or walking and crossing main streets.

      1. Very true. This is kind of eye opening to see the school starting times of other towns. I guess North Attleboro is abnormally early.

  34. JUST IN from Gray ME NWS office:

    LOW TOPPED CONVECTION RACES QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
    DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE STRONGER CELLS. MODEST BUOYANCY BUT STRONG SHEAR SUPPORT NOT ONLY A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL BUT THE RISK OF A FEW SPINUPS AS WELL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

    You know, I HATE it when they say “spin ups”. WHY don’t they use the word tornado????????

    1. Spin up sort of Minimizes the threat. Who’s afraid of a “spin up”?
      Say the word Tornado, and people take notice. 😀

      1. exactly

        JJ and OS – do you have an idea of the time frame on this. Son drives Providence to Boston around 4:30 am/5:00 am – so I will be quite worried. Thanks

        1. Looking at the HRRR radar reflectivity, looks to be “approximately” 2AM to About 10 or 11AM. Worst
          of it “probably” around 4-8 AM or thereabouts.

          I’m afraid he’ll most likely be smack in the middle of it,
          whatever that IF is.

          Just because the HRRR show echoes on the forecast chart does NOT necessarily mean it is correct. However, the HRRR has been fairly decent.

          Latest RAP model also agrees. Nam roughly the same.

          1. Thank you OS. I’ll be here at the crack of dawn to see what is happening. I really appreciate your information and all of your links and posts. Can’t say enough

  36. Rough estimate I would say between 4-9 AM. Its rare here to get a setup like this here but ingredients are in place for a few strong to locally severe storms and can’t rule out an isolated weak tornado. Gil Simmons our meteorologist here at WTNH in CT said and this is good advice set up a back up alarm in case you lose power.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale for tomorrow pre dawn mid morning.
    Flooding – Low
    Wind – Elevated
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

    1. JJ. Also a HUGE thank you to you for your answer and the information and knowledge you share. We have some amazing folks on here…..not to mention our host who never ceases to impress me :).

  37. A thing to remember just because the SPC doesn’t highlight an area in the slight risk category doesn’t mean a severe storm can’t happen. The day of the Revere Tornado there was no slight risk outlook issued by the SPC in July 2013 here in CT we had a day with two tornado touchdowns and again no slight risk was issued.

      1. Yes, Indeed.
        Unless it is a widespread risk, the SPC leaves “isolated” severe
        threats to the local NWS office.

        In other words, we’re on our own. There likely will be NO
        Tornado Watch or even a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for that matter. Thus people will NOT fear anything and then KABOOM
        a tornado touches down and does considerable damage to a location(s).

        Again, my biggest concern is the HOUR at which this “could”
        possibly happen. Imagine getting woken up at 5 or 6AM by the sound of your roof blowing off or a huge tree crashing through a window or some other such tragedy???

    1. 18Z NAM CAPE for 08Z (4AM)

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014100718&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=014

      18Z NAM reflectivity for 08Z

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014100718&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=014

      09Z

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014100718&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=015

      10Z

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014100718&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=016

      This would have it OUT of the area around 6AM.

  39. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    THE COMBINATION OF THE FORCING ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
    AND SURFACE FRONT…WILL RESULT IN POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
    AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
    IN ADDITION…WHILE THE THREAT IS LOW…IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT AN
    ISOLATED TORNADO.

  40. FRom Taunton NWS:

    HELICITY VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE…PARTICULARLY IN THE NAM…AND
    CERTAINLY NOT WHAT WE ARE USED TO SEEING FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND
    YEAR. THE RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS…HAVE US THINKING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES REMAINS VERY LOW…BUT STILL NON-ZERO. A LOT OF MESOSCALE FACTORS WILL NEED TO COME INTO ALIGNMENT TO PRODUCE ANY SPIN-UPS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

  41. Thanks for the links Old Salty.
    Both those helicity values from the links you posted showing 300 for my area. Those links also show the amount of shear were going to have here in SNE and the ingredients are there for somewhere in SNE to have a tornado warning and possibly a weak tornado EF0 EF 1 touch down.

    1. I think we would have a Tornado Watch for certain IF we had more
      impressive instability parameters. Should a storm or 2 really get
      going, we could still have a touch down.

      We’ll keep monitoring. Perhaps, in the end, it’s much ado about nothing, which certainly would be a good thing.

  42. Latest from SPC:

    …NEW ENGLAND…
    ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
    NORTHERN ONTARIO…A FAST-MOVING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT…SOME STRONG LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING. A MODEST BUOYANCY/STRONG SHEAR REGIME…ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KM…MAY SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO FOR AREAS INCLUDING EASTERN MA…RI…AND POTENTIALLY NH/COASTAL MAINE.

  43. 15Z SREF is in:

    Significant Tornado Ingredients 09Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100715/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f018.gif

    12Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100715/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f021.gif

    Significant tornado Parameter 12Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100715/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f021.gif

    0-1Km Helicity 12Z

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014100715/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f021.gif

  48. I’ve updated the blog!

    I’m heading to an under-the-lights soccer game in Burlington between the Burlington and Woburn girls under-14 travel soccer teams. My friend’s daughter is on the Woburn team.

    I’ll be back a bit later!

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