A Wave To Watch

78 Comments

3:52PM

Low pressure moving away in eastern Canada and a small high pressure area trying to build in will bring dry, breezy, and cooler weather through Thursday. A wave of low pressure passing south of the region later Friday to early Saturday will bring some cloudiness and a chance of rain mainly for RI and southern MA. High pressure builds in again later in the weekend then offshore early next week with fair weather, starting cool then followed by a warming trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain south PM. Highs 55-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Decreasing clouds. Chance of rain south AM. Low 42. High 61.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

78 thoughts on “A Wave To Watch”

  6. Thanks TK! 🙂

    1. The latest CPC still has above normal temps for the forseeable future, but now it is “coast-to-coast” except Alaska which is now below normal for the first time in maybe a year? Wow!!

    2. Keeping fingers crossed the wave of low pressure for Saturday stays waaaaay south. Always an issue when I have to attend an outdoor event. 😉

    3. TK – What type of a forecast do you consider a “bust”? IMHO this morning was not so much a “bust” as it was just not as widespread as expected since only SE MA and parts of the Cape got the bulk of the storms which is certainly fine with me. 🙂

    2. It seems to me it covered the area as forecast but was not as severe as expected in the SE corridor thank heavens but certainly was in western part of state.

      1. I was under the impression that severe storms were in both SE MA (less) and Western MA (more)…or am I mistaken?

        1. No,you are right….I think SE MA went over the fish. But there was a line booking it over the cape and islands ….and I’m the wrong person to be answering this 🙂

    3. The term “bust” for a forecast varies.
      In this case it was not. The latest indications before the event was heaviest storms far W and across SE MA. That happened. We forecast “potential” severe storms which does not mean they occur, but they have the potential to occur.

  7. We all should be prepared for quite a number of “busts” this upcoming winter. I am getting that feeling the current pattern will continue for some time, maybe for months on end.

  8. The city of Boston’s leaf collection will be October 13 – November 29.

    IMHO the end date should be expanded through at least early December if not mid-December. Many of the trees around the city are still green with no real strong signs of turning for now, and I suspect come Thanksgiving there will still be a good number of trees not yet past peak.

    A few years ago, Boston’s leaf collection did extend into mid-December. They should really consider extending it again on a regular basis. Most years leaf drops are later than earlier nowadays.

    1. Agree. Ours ends then also and we had tons of leaves on ground last few years when it ended. It used to end early November.

      1. Don’t want piles of leaves getting snowed/iced over at the edges of the road. Happened in Worcester with the ice storm of 2008. Piles of leaves were in the road/on the side all winter into the spring.

        Also, a consideration is the same trucks used to pickup leaves have to be outfitted with sander inserts for road treatment. Can’t load leaves into a sander insert. Have to make a judgment call on when to switch over for the season.

        People complain if you stop too early, people complain if you wait to long. DPW’s just can’t win sometimes.

    1. As I mentioned above, don’t expect a lot of “hits”. I don’t have a good feeling about this winter. We will see, of course. 😉 🙁

  12. Thanks tk 🙂 I’m liking what I’m hearing, you’ve been saying this for a while, and you look to be right on, even some weather stations r onto it, I heard one national station say mild through at least Christmas, great!!! By then daylight will be increasing 🙂 goodnight everyone 🙂 stay safe

  14. TK is only person I have heard say above average temps and below average to average snow. In fact most everyone I have heard discuss it have said just the opposite. Also TK said he still very well might change his mind.

    1. I do hadi, but I don’t mind this mild fall, I still hope for snow just before Christmas, January it can snow all it wants, it’s Feb that I’m done with it. No need for 3 months of snow, a month in a half is just fine lol. Anyways have a good night 🙂

    2. I’m betting he does not as I have never seen him stay with somthing like this. Who knows what will happen.

    3. I wonder how much of that prediction has to do with the fact we’ve never had 3 years in a row of above average snowfall

  15. I think that 60F to 70F dewpoint day or maybe 2 of them are coming the middle of next week.

    Big jet stream amplification resulting in surface air that will be coming from the SE USA coastline, surging all the way northward into New England.

  16. Good morning.

    Yet another beautiful day. Seems like we have had a zillion of them.

    re: Winter Forecast

    I honestly don’t know WHO to believe. You know what?, I’ll believe it when I see it.

    It will be what it will be, no matter what anyone predicts.

    Just sit back and enjoy the ride.

  17. I think were going to get something in the middle this winter from what TK is saying and what the majority I have heard calling for a cold and snowy winter. I am leaning towards slightly above normal temps and snowfall below average by 5 to 10 inches.

    1. “Generally” speaking there is a correlation with that and Snow here
      in the Northeast. Doesn’t always work out that way though.

      We shall see.

      I’m having a hard time believing that this Winter will be milder than normal
      and thus correspondingly less snowy than normal. IF anything, I am leaning
      the other way.

      We’ll know soon enough. 😀

        1. From Judah Cohen:

          Cohen thinks he knows how to change that. His study, recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows a statistically significant link between the rate of change in Siberian snow cover during October and the dominant phase of the Arctic Oscillation during the following winter. A rapid advance of Siberian snow cover, Cohen and his colleague Justin Jones found, is linked with the negative phase. A slow advance, by contrast, is linked with a positive oscillation, which brings milder winter weather to Washington.

          Cohen claims that rapidly advancing snow cover in Siberia can set off a chain of events from Earth’s surface to the stratosphere. The quick expansion can lead to a large dome of cold high pressure over Siberia. That dome, in turn, perturbs the jet stream so it flows more north to south in addition to west to east, resulting in more intense cold-air outbreaks in eastern North America and western Europe, which often breed snowstorms.

          Link:

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/siberian-snowfall-may-help-improve-us-weather-forecasts-meteorologist-says/2011/11/11/gIQAR2Qx4N_story.html

  20. This divisional game in Buffalo will not be an easy one, I expect a very close game, this Bills team has more confidence than they’ve had in quite sometime, plus new ownership.

    Beautiful day today
    Go Patriots!! 🙂

  21. 1 or 2 days of high humidity next week.

    Mild pattern with brief cold shots thru the end of the year.

    Alternately dry and wet into November then dry.

    Siberia may go bone dry and mild and lose early snowcover. That would have implications on long range. That is puzzle piece number 1…

    Next 5 weeks will be telling.

        1. According to a study done by Ralph Fato, during a “weak” El Niño, many winters have brought above-normal snowfall for cities such at New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Hartford and Chicago. However during strong El Niño winters, snowfall trends to well-below average.

    2. Feels like deja vu. Weren’t we supposed to have a weak El Nino the past 2 years and it never showed?

    1. So what are we to believe? 😆

      Why don’t we just place various winter scenarios on a pinwheel and spin her up AND throw a dart on it. Wherever it lands, that’s the Winter Outlook.

      Look I poke fun. I know there are scientific reasoning for the various forecasts, but there are so many different factors that different scientist interpret factors differently and come up with different Outlooks.

      Frankly, I’m getting tired of it all. Let’s agree on an Outlook Already. 😀

      1. OR, just wait and see. I can give a 100% accurate outlook guaranteed!!! I’ll provide on May 1st, 2015. 👿 😈 👿 😆 😆 😆 😆

      2. I can agree on an outlook. Fall will soon turn to winter and then winter to spring and spring to summer and in 365 days here we are again!!

          1. Now that is a far more difficult question. It took so long to come to that realization that I’m afraid I didn’t keep track 😉

  26. If the EURO is KING, WHY we do we totally and completely dismiss its Winter Outlook??? Ahhhhhh my head is spinning.

  27. TK, to your point about Siberia going dry and warming and losing its snow cover. Didn’t the same thing happen either last year or the year before? Huge increase in snow cover during Oct and then by Dec and Jan they were having record high temps? And didn’t that period correlate with some of the most brutal cold temps here that we’ve seen in some time? And i believe we had some snowfalls too, including the one where we had very cold temps into the teens and single digits with a moderate snowstorm.

    1. We had one storm where for the first time in my life it was SNOWING with the temperature BELOW ZERO!!!!

      1. That was pretty awesome. I think it was -1 or -2F at Logan with moderate snow for a few to several hrs.

        It was something like 12F in Marshfield with moderate snow, which is amazing, considering a north wind passing over Massachusetts Bay.

  30. Catching up…

    Leaf / yard waste collections: Woburn does them into early December.
    Siberian dryness: Yes it happened before and then we got nasty cold/snow, but this time the pattern driving the weather in North America will be quite different. That particular correlation is one of many. The combination this year will be nothing like the previous 2, except possibly that El Nino fails again, which by the way is puzzle piece #2.

    1. GEEZ TK,

      This Winter Outlook business is very Puzzling INDEED!

      This year, we should really get an interesting array of snow total forecasts from our members. Last year I went low. This year I am leaning High.
      I’ll have to be careful with that.

      I was way wrong last year and it turned out to be AOK. Perhaps I don’t want to be incorrect on the wrong end.

      Hmmm Maybe I should go LOW again????????????

      So TK, what will be your procrastination for snow totals.

      15 inches? 😀

  31. As for the maps posted on the AccuWeather blog… Shift everything about 300 miles south and then you might hook me in.

    And the ECMWF is no longer king. It hasn’t been for a while. I think it’s long range outlook is 50/50, at best, right now. Sorry. 🙂

  32. And finally, regarding the outlook…
    I’ve been giving early ideas, which is not a typical practice of mine. When it comes down to it, I don’t believe we can get a real solid handle on what will take place over a 3 month period until we are less than 6 weeks from its beginning. This is why I will not issue what I consider an “official” winter forecast until the middle of November. To do so now would be like trying to bake the cake with a few key ingredients still on the shelf in the grocery store.

  33. The only NAM run worth anything so far today is the 12z run. 18z is a piece of poor computer prognosticating.

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