Forecast Update

64 Comments

5:55PM

No changes to previous discussion and forecast for this post other than to slow the onset of any precipitation from the low pressure wave passing to the south to overnight Friday night instead of late in the day Friday. Still expect whatever is passing by to be moving very rapidly and on the way out by morning or midday Saturday, again with the greatest chance of any rain occurring in southern MA and RI. Still looking for high pressure to move in Sunday with cool and dry weather, followed by a warm-up early next week. A trough from the west will send a band of rain into the region at some point next week, looking like Wednesday at this point. Timing will be fine tuned as we get closer to this event. Looking like an upper low hanging around Thursday with an unstable and cooler day expected.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Few clouds interior MA and southern NH dissipate early while a deck of high clouds crosses the South Coast and Cape Cod. Clear elsewhere. Lows in the 40s except lower 50s urban centers. Diminishing W wind.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny but increasing high clouds especially southern MA and RI later in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind light W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain pushes into RI and southern MA overnight. Lows around 50. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start, rain in southern MA and RI exiting morning-midday, lastly on Cape Cod. Clearing northwest to southeast afternoon. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 42. High 66.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 74.
WEDNESDAY: AM showers, PM sun/clouds. Low 55. High 75.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

64 thoughts on “Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks tk 🙂 looks like a nice mid October forecast

    Seedings are finished, and now it’s 4 weeks of winterizer/Lime visits.

  2. Thanks TK! I guess I am second.

    What is the deadline for our snowfall predictions? Has a date been set yet?

    1. I think we did mention one, but let’s just say November 16 at noon for the cut-off so we can have a post in place before the end of that day, which will be either one day after or the day of my Winter forecast.

      1. I can set up spreadsheet tomorrow but it may be easier to have a window although I doubt many will come In this early

  4. Looks like we have something north of the islands that has a 60 percent chance of developing. Need to watch next week as a trough will be digging in early/mid week.

    1. Since 2: 30 early work start lol. I’m wondering actually how much rain down my way we receive tonight .

  9. Good morning,

    Just another beauty in a long string of them.
    Not sure I can remember a year with so many days rated a 10.

    47 this morning. Hey it’s Oct 10th, so this coolness is to be expected.
    No big deal. BEAUTIFUL day!!!!!!

    RE: TROPICS

    I wouldn’t worry about that current one that the NHC has a 60% CHANCE on.
    That baby will be taking a RIGHT TURN and churn out over the FISH.

    Eyes should be on the extreme Southern Gulf and the Western Caribbean for possible
    action later. 😀

    2. There were more predictions last winter and the winter before for below normal snowfall and those turned out to be incorrect. All it takes is one biggie to tip the scales.

  12. My snowfall prediction for Logan: 19.2 inches.

    I also think it’s going to be slightly milder than normal, with most of the severe cold staying in the upper midwest. Not like the 2011-2012 winter, but more like that one than last year. I do think we get plenty of rain storms – lakes cutters producing major winter storms in Chicago, but lots of raindrops here in SNE.

    1. I’m not making my prediction just yet.
      I have never seen such Divergence in the Winter Outlooks.

      WAY TOO much conflicting data.

      I think El-Nino stays relatively weak, which means anything can happen here,
      depending on all of the other factors.

      I’ve never really been into the long range outlooks. NEVER had any faith in them at all. These days, there is much science going into the predictions, so
      it is clearly getting better.

      Honestly, I don’t know what to think.

      Right Now I’m LEANING towards Colder and Snowier than average. I hate using the word normal. An above average snow season is PERFECTLY Normal. It is only Abnormal if it exceeds a certain amount over average.
      I do not know that figure and it depends on who is defining it?

      Is it 1 SD over average? 2 SDs? 3SDs? or MORE?
      SD=standard Deviation.

      I digress.

      Have a good one all.

  14. Base on my trusty in house IWS Model I am predicting between now and January 1, 2015 we will have experienced a land-falling Hurricane along the Massachusetts coasts and a blizzard resulting in a wide spread 24″ swath of snow with some area’s approaching 40″.

    If you like money, bet on it!

    1. Depends on Model.

      NAM has the inch or so.
      CMC and GFS has very little rain in the order of 1/10 inch or so. 😀

  20. Wxrisk.com

    WEATHER GEEK POST……

    ssw .. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING — is almost always a sign that a “unusual” jet stream pattern is about to begin within a few weeks. OFTEN .. but not always … it leads to negative AO pattern or a negative NAO pattern.

    This image from WSI / Mike Ventrice show a developing ssw Event developing . Whether this is a BIG SSW or a more Moderate one …it is still too early to tell .

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10703689_758247690889158_8760745567418066975_n.jpg?oh=a8cba475535b5c07f0de11abb9d55da3&oe=54B28FC0&__gda__=1421627562_cfb13cc5c9ad50801f1746e980a8f688

        1. If it happens during the summer it probably has a very different affect on our weather. It only seems a story during the winter

    2. The snow bunnies pull that one out every year. 🙂
      It works…sometimes. Probably less than 50% of the time, assuming it’s the right time of year. SSW right now is not going to do diddly for the Winter pattern. This is October.

  21. I am glad that the NHC classified the system south of Bermuda as a subtropical storm because there is no way that thing is purely tropical.

    Good question Ace, perhaps it happens year round but only gets focused on during winter because of a bigger impact due to much colder airmasses pouring southward into the US.

    1. I used to cruise to Bermuda on the Sunday of Columbus Day weekend and there were a couple of years that the temp was in the 80’s as we set sail out of Boston.

  23. This is one of those fairly rare occasions where the 12z GFS is a better run than the 12z ECMWF. The Euro thinks it’s April. Whoops! Sign #1 not to trust it much in the next few months, INCLUDING the seasonal forecast it just ran. Don’t put too much stock in that.

  25. I will be posting a new blog early evening. Here’s a preview.

    -No change to the rain outlook for overnight and Saturday morning. NAM is too wet.
    -Stellar Autumn day on Sunday!
    -Warm-up Monday & Tuesday, 60s to 70 Monday, 70s to 80 not out of question Tuesday if we get enough sunshine.
    -Potent system likely brings a band of rain/thunderstorms Wednesday morning and the afternoon may turn out mostly sunny and warm. I think the ECMWF solution is a piece of crap with this system. Following the GFS.
    -Cooler but still on the milder side of average Thursday-Friday with lots of clouds Thursday and lots of sun Friday.

    I’ll let y’all know when I post.

  26. Another watcher early next week.
    CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALSO BECOME INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
    TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE LOW TO MID
    60S…THIS IS ROUGHLY 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR MID
    OCTOBER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.65 TO 1.85 INCHES WHICH
    IS ALSO RATHER HIGH FOR MID OCTOBER. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS FORECAST
    TO REACH 200 OR HIGHER. WIND FIELDS SHOW A 50 KNOT SOUTH LOW LEVEL
    JET CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING TUESDAY NIGHT

    1. JJ, thanks. I was wondering about that myself.
      Each time I looked, parameters were not there.

      Let me look at the CMC. NOPE

      What Planet is this for?

      Did they get the correct night?

    1. Hadi,

      For today, it’s the GFS.

      They ALL SUCK from time to time. Let’ s use my model.

      The TADAI North American Medium Range Forecasting System.

      That is THROW A DART AT IT.

  28. I will wait until at least the end of the month to post my snowfall prediction, but thanks Vicki for preparing your spreadsheet for us. I want to see more thoughts from TK and other mets. It will be interesting to see what AccuWeather.com says.

    Clue: Dry Septembers tend to produce near/below normal snowfall for Logan. 😉

  29. As I have always said, there are models that tend to do better/worse in given situations at different times of year. And then of course you have the problem of “upgrades” to consider. There are nearly as many factors to take in as there are indices when trying to forecast long range weather. That’s meteorology. Experience helps. 🙂

  30. 35 years ago today, 4 inches of snow fell in Woburn, 2 inches atop Blue Hill, 0.2 inch at Logan, and 7.5 inches in Worcester!

    New blog is posted!

    Have a great weekend!

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