Columbus Day Weekend Outlook

135 Comments

5:44PM original post
8:50AM Saturday time edit

The weekend is here! And if you are lucky enough to have a 3-day one for Columbus Day then a good portion of this weekend will feature weather that is likely favorable for your plans. The only interruption is the wet start as a wave of low pressure passes south of the region. The timing still looks similar, mainly a morning-midday event. However, it may take into late afternoon for rain to exit Cape Cod and the Islands, so if you are heading there, more patience is required. But that patience will be rewarded with fabulous weather Sunday and Monday not only there but in all locations as high pressure builds in Sunday then offshore Monday. This will allow for a warm up Monday after a crisp/cool Sunday. Whatever your plans, please have a safe weekend!

Looking ahead a little, the warm up that commences Monday will continue Tuesday, and it may get quite a bit warmer than average, depending on the amount of sunshine we have. For now, the forecast will remain unchanged from the previous post, but in the back of your mind you can make note that it may end up warmer than the 74 that is currently there (75-80 potential if enough sun). Still looking like a trough pushes east and sends a front into the region with a band of rain/thunderstorms sometime Wednesday. I believe it will be progressive enough that we may salvage part of Wednesday with some fair and mild weather. It should then turn cooler but not that chilly for later next week with clouds dominant on Thursday as an upper level trough swings through, and sunshine Friday as high pressure builds in. But again, these days are a ways off and there is plenty of time to work out those details.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain exiting from west to east late morning through early afternoon, from Boston north and west, lingering into later afternoon southeast of Boston especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Clearing northwest of Boston by day’s end. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 66.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 74.
WEDNESDAY: AM rain/thunderstorms, PM sun/clouds. Low 55. High 75.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 63.

135 thoughts on “Columbus Day Weekend Outlook”

  1. Thanks TK! I am first. 🙂

    TK – NWS says widespread frost for interior SNE for Saturday night. Do you agree?

  2. TK – Your Saturday forecast is clearly the most optomistic. The TV mets have rain as far north as extreme southern NH and southwest ME and not ending in Boston until mid-afternoon (2:00 pm) and the Cape not until near sunset. I hope your forecast verifies as I will be working an outdoor event most of the day tomorrow.

    Of course I hope even your forecast is wrong as well…and the rain only gets to the South Coast/Cape, but probably no such luck. 😉

    Thanks again as always! 🙂

  4. Thanks tk 🙂 hoping for a nice night for Halloween, ik it’s early but hoping for 50’s/60’s no rain between 5-8pm

  6. Thanks TK for those October 1979 snow stats in the previous blog.

    1979-80 snowfall for Logan = 12.7″ 🙁

    October snows always produce well below normal snowfall…remember 2011-12? UGH! 🙁

  8. Just curious…Why is Fox broadcasting the Patriots-Bills game on Sunday and not CBS? The Bills are not an NFC team.

  9. HI everyone! Sorry I haven’t been on here in a while! Internship, school, and homework swallowed me whole. But I’m back now! 😀 TK, I LOVE the background color on here right now. It is my FAVORITE. I love how fallish and warm it is!!! 😀

    1. Not surprised by the states on that list. Unfortunately as usual the NE and the west coast lead the way in forward thinking.

      2. I agree hadi but when millions r moving to the south it’s just giving them more power going down the road, some of these states in 20-30 yrs r increasing millions per decade making them more powerful, it’s sad but that’s the way we r going especially when Obama is done in 2016, trust me hadi the south is gaining lots of people, until we new englanders stop our selfish thinking damage will continue. Anyways it’s a crummy day today, have the best day that u can 🙂

    2. Honest question for debate…do you think the earth could have survived all it has over 4 billion years if all it would take is 100 or so years of industry on what has been until recently a small percentage of the world? Coupled with the fact that we have maybe one or two hundred years of climate and weather records? Statistically we may as well have nothing. How did lush Greenland freeze over long before we had factories? I think personally it is arrogant to think we can alter the earth in that time and all these scare tactics used now are just that.

      1. I have said before that I completely believe that a good part of what we are seeing is cyclical. However, I think we have created tremendous damage. Proof of that is something as simple as removing wolves from Yellowstone. I believe it is beyond irresponsible to believe we have not damaged our earth and in many ways the damage is beyond repair. To also believe that damage has no effect doesn’t make sense to me either

        However on the preparations that the states listed in the link above took, I don’t think it relates to our impact as much as it is in preparation for the seas that are in fact rising…..for whatever reason. Remember Boston is built on landfill.

  13. Based on radar not sure what the returns are like but rain is pushing into southern nh. Nothing wet here in JP.

    1. Daughter said house is 67 which is the coldest it’s been so far this fall. We haven’t used heat yet. I like mornings like this. Sweats and coffee and sitting by window watching the rain and listening to music 🙂

  17. Pretty much on track. Maybe 1 hour later on the timing. No big deal. Rain a little further north than forecast but adjusted for this and this does not really change the timing at all. This is an OPEN wave and flying to the east. I think you may be surprised at how fast the rain scoots out of here (of course lingering on the Cape longest but that was expected too).

    I’m heading to Six Flags New England for the afternoon/evening. By the time we get there, rain will be gone. Sun appears during the afternoon there where it will be milder by 5-10 degrees than it is in eastern MA.

    Next update for the blog will probably be first thing tomorrow morning. 🙂

  19. Whats going on? Im mobile and it is pouring.
    Ehoes on radar are strong. Nam maybe not so bad aftsr all.

    1. Home now. I can see that it is Zipping along. Stil, rained more than I expected
      Still coming down pretty good.

  21. These echoes on the radar ……. combined with the upper 40 surface temps and Mt. washington’s below freezing temp …..

    Make me think something frozen may be melting not too many thousand feet above us.

      1. and in New England style, it could be 80F Wednesday with higher humidity to boot. Heat today, A/C Wednesday. 🙂 🙂

            1. I did say hinting:

              STRENGTHENING S LOW-LEVEL-JET
              AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ADVECT NEARLY 2-INCHES PWATS…NEAR-70
              SURFACE DEWPOINTS…AND A POSSIBLE HIGH SHEAR LOW INSTABILITY
              ENVIRONMENT              . THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND NUISANCE FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE PLAUSIBLE MORE SO THAN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY.

  22. 46 here and even with fairly steady rain all morning we only have .21 inch. The Sudbury river is basically dry with sloppy mud

  27. Just enough rain for my beautifully mowed new lawn that looks awesome. 40 people tomorrow for birthday party. Thank God we picked Sunday not today 🙂

  28. It was just enough rain today (.31″) to make most of my morning and early afternoon quite miserable outside. After the rain tapered off, it actually turned even colder. Boston/Logan was -9 below normal for the day…UGH!

    All I can say is there had better be a similar setup (open wave) 2-3+ months from now…if you know what I mean. 😀

  29. It sounds crazy, but some surfaces (particularly decks) are still damp from today’s rain and its clear and calm out and getting chilly.

    I could see some black ice on a few decks overnight into tomorrow morning.

    1. Could be some on our floors. I made calamari tonight ….bad choice as house smells like fish and oil. So I have all the windows open. ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

    1. Jury’s still out.
      I may have guessed wrong on the timing to start out, but not sure how much we get and how long it hangs around yet.

    2. Hmmm….the text forecast is calling for showers both days …in fact Friday is Partly Sunny with showers….I hope not as I’m hoping to paint the front of the house next weekend.

  32. Patriots Gameday!! 1pm it’s gonna be a very tough game, I was suppose to go but cancelled. Go Patriots!! Beautiful day for Football 🙂

      2. See you root against Brady and the rest of the players, Acemaster there is no way, I repeat no way u r a true patriot fan, I don’t believe u or anything u say about the patriots, u r somehow a secret silent patriot hater or Bellicheck hater and again no matter who your rooting against your rooting against the anew England Patriots dont doubt yourself, do u have a favorite team?

        1. I was half kidding. I still hope the Pats win, but i also hope Spikes has a good game against them. I liked Spikes when he was here. He’s the kind of player Belichick hates bc god forbid he has human emotions and shows them. The Pats used to have players like that and they won super bowls bc of it. Now they are all business-like. Yes, off the field, the NFL is a business, but on the field, its a game.

  34. Good luck to your Patriots.
    Hoping my Cowboys could win their 5th straight but that will be tough playing in Seattle today.

  37. Was in Grafton, MA yesterday afternoon. Fall colors are brighter and more vibrant that i expected this year especially with the dry conditions. I think the recent rain events have come at the right time to brighten things up. Best foliage in a couple years IMO. Hopefully those colors translate into the areas that were the driest this summer.

  38. Missed the first few plays of the game. Didn’t know it was on Fox. Why is it on Fox?? Doesn’t they only do the NFC games? Can’t stand Fox

  39. I think its part of the new tv deal where FOX will carry some AFC matchups and CBS will carry some NFC matchups.

      1. Tough place to go to Seattle and win. Arizona is the only team to beat Seattle in Seattle in the last two plus season’s. If we win this game will be making a big statement. To me the next two games are winnable games Giants and Redskins.

  40. Listening to 98.5 in my ears while I mow my lawn and start filling the yard waste bins with grass and leaves. Beautiful day for it!

    Not a fan of Fox announcers anyway.

    Philip… 80 is POSSIBLE either Tue or more likely Wed but it will depend on amount of sun. We’re running out of sun hours rapidly this time of year so 80 is nearly impossible to attain (thought not completely so). I’ll probably stick with mid 70s for highest temps.

    Probably going to change the rain timing as it looks like I guessed wrong with the faster scenario. Will have to update this evening though. 🙂

    1. I have to disagree with you TK regarding the annnouncers. I like Kenny Albert because his voice is very similar to his father Marv. I also like Dick Stockton assuming he is still with the network and hasn’t retired. Of course, I don’t watch Fox Sports very often anyway. Besdides, when I watch my local sports teams, announcers don’t really bother me. The main thing for me is that my teams WIN!

  41. Not sure if it’s my tv setting but anytime I watch any sports on fox I can’t see the compleat score on left , etc I see buffalo only at 0. Is this just my tv.

      2. Vicki did not understand your post. Yes I watch whatever I can in hd. Just with fox like I said I can’t see entire score. Same thing with baseball just this channel though.

      1. They also lost an o-lineman and another linebacker. Not sure if they came back into the game though

  46. Nice game by the pats today. Almost 300 yds of offense in 2nd half. Brady looked good as did multiple receivers. Big win in one of those trap type games. Jets Thursday night.

    2. Yes, and NOW he has been moved to Beth Israel West Campus in Boston, a mere 2 miles from my house. Nurse in Dallas has Ebola and was infected giving care to the man that died.

      This is beginning to get out of control. Scary stuff.

        1. Wow!! I hope she is not only Ok, but that she stays
          safe. YIKES!!!

          I keep telling my wife that this is only the beginning.

    3. I wish they would not report this stuff until they are sure. Clearly TX made a horrific mess of how they handled the situation and I feel awful for the nurse. This man was recently in Ebola area and that makes this more likely. I have called and written Patrick and asked him to do what gov of CT did and proactively declare state of emergency. Then if he needs to do something he can immediately.

      1. Will be interesting to see how South Shore Medical Center (a partner center with the Braintree Harvard Vanguard location) reacts to this…should be an interesting and tense week coming up.

      1. 956!

        Gotta love those phantom systems the GFS has coming north out of the Caribbean a the end of every run. Typical fall behavior. Interesting the Euro latched on to the system later this week first in regards to the slower passage.

  49. On a positive note:

    NICE JOB PATS!!!

    Good play all around, including Brady, Edelman, Gronk and LaFell.

    Nice to have the Gronk back as he is a difference maker and it showed today.

  50. Beautiful day here in Dorchester at the Irish festival down by Florian Hall. Full sun, great temps, music, beverages 🙂 and a nice Pats win.

    1. Barry’s extended forecast has a soakin rain on Friday and the rain Saturday night. Is anyone else seeing this?

      1. Good question about Friday. Barry’s forecast reflects that he is going with the ECMWF solution. It’s much slower.

        GFS pulls things through more during Thursday with some improvement Friday. So now we have the model disagreement dilemma once again.

  52. i was at band all day, but listened to the radio. patriots got a good win but, mayo went down which is not good, we are thin at that middle line backer position, ridley might have an acl tear 🙁

    Found a good site that i like for the weather models 🙂

  54. Thanks Vicki… I am still in shock that we went into Seattle and won. Were just the second team in the last two plus season’s to go into Seattle and win. Big statement win for the Cowboys and the next few games are winnable playing the Giants and Redskins.

    1. Husband and SIL watched game. I am sorry to say I lit a fire in firepit and enjoyed the deck. But I did keep asking 🙂

  56. I have updated the blog. Forecast confidence is lower than average, so lots of work coming up to try to refine it.

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