8:48PM
The new week starts for some of you while others will be enjoying an extra weekend day on Monday, Columbus Day, but now I’m confused, not about the setup of the week, but the weather that will occur therein. There is some significant disagreement in guidance in the configuration of the jet stream and the timing of weather systems. If you remember my last post, I had a system coming through on Wednesday with wet weather followed by some clearing, then lots of clouds Thursday and better weather Friday. I now am going to lean toward a timing that’s about 24 hours slower, so that fair weather and a warm-up that commences Monday will continue through Wednesday. The wet weather will then come through sometime Thursday with lots of clouds Friday and then fair weather next weekend. But this is lower than average confidence and it will be important to check for updates.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows from 40 deep valleys to 50 coast/urban areas. Calm wind.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.
THURSDAY: Showers likely. Low 55. High 65.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 48. High 62.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.
Thanks TK!
Can I assume that Thursday Night Football at Gillette will be quite wet? 😉
Indications are for that. It’s still possible that it progresses enough to be gone by then.
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK !
Thanks tk 🙂 please keep us updated on that Patriot game forecast 🙂
Thanks TK!
Thanks TK 😀 I officially have a rain jacket and a regular fall jacket and WARM clothes 😀 BRING IT, FALL!
Oh, HIIIII WINTER!
😀
Thanks TK.
Gonzalo
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Must be an interesting morning in the northern most Leeward Islands.
Mt. Washington : 37F, Worcester and Blue Hill in the mid 40s. W and SW winds.
Bye bye autumnal chill.
Liking the forecast
Am I looking at the euro correctly? It appears o push the rain on saturday out of here by noon, and then holds of the rain on Sunday until early afternoon?
Good Morning. I am still in shock over that Cowboys victory in Seattle yesterday.
Back to weather. NWS out of Taunton still hinting at possible severe weather on Thursday
A HIGH SHEAR LOW INSTABILITY IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY. SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION…THOUGH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE
EVENTS EARLIER THIS MONTH AND DURING LATE-SEPTEMBER…A MORE STABLE
ONSHORE ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER AIR FROM OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE LIMITS
THE THREAT. GREATER CONFIDENCE WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT PER
PRECIPITATION-DRAG PROCESSES. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO
CATEGORICAL AND CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM WORDING.
It’s a good week to put down some grass seed
Anyone else out there not get these bogus holidays off and have to work today? 🙂
Do colleges and universities have classes today? I never had today off in college.
Yup! Good commute to framingham at least!
I have it off, sorry.
I am working Ace!
I’m working ace but it’s the only one I don’t get off so no complaints .
Some colleges and universities do have the day off. When I was going to school up at Curry College we had every holiday off.
Interesting JJ. I would have thought the private universities wouldn’t have today off and the public ones would. I knew a few people from my high school who went to Curry. Really good school.
Mac is a Curry College alum, JJ. He was also on their golf team.
6z NAM picking up on some CAPE and some low EHI Values for Thursay
EHI
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=009&fixhh=1&hh=084
CAPE
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=009&fixhh=1&hh=084
LIFT
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=084&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
Yes, and Boston Harbor might freeze over tomorrow. 😀
LOL!!!
NWS out of Taunton for a few days now hinting at severe weather.
I know JJ.
That and a dollar “might” get you a cup of coffee.
Do you seriously expect severe weather on Thursday?
I highly doubt it, however, it being New England, we’ll certainly
monitor it.
And yes, they have been hinting at it for days.
FWIW, the SREF severe parameters are NOT showing up, yet anyway.
They WERE last time around.
I don’t believe will have severe weather. I would not rule out some embedded non severe thunderstorms.
Could be. I had to watch the news a Channel 5 last night so I got to see
the wonkman. He thought there would be thunder on Thursday.
Not that I believe a word he utters.
We shall see.
If Eric or Barry say it, then I’ll consider it. 😀
If that rain is coming down at a good clip Thursday night could make for interesting football game with the elements to contend with.
From Upton NY NWS office:
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2 INCHES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE INSIDE OF THE WED NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING TIME
PERIOD…WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FORCING AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WELL.
A wee bit of a difference there. 😀
I think Upton’s discussion has a lot better chance of verifying than Taunton’s.
Agreed.
In any event, Pats look to get wet During Thursday nights game.
Wet Ball = anything could happen. Not a good night to be missing Ridley.
I remember a game between the Patriots and Jets back in November 2006 and it was foggy and rainy during the game and the Jets came in and won the game. Obviously much different Jets team coming into Foxboro on Thursday than back in November 2006. Partroits should win this game but if the elements are in play you never what could happen.
Exactly.
A whole lot more cloudy than I would have anticipated today. I figured we’d have high & some middle cloudiness but I did not suspect the middle cloudiness would develop in standing wave form and sit overhead so long.
Oh well, at least it’s not raining. 😀
Still very nice out.
Not bad really at all, just a bit more grey than forecast. We may end up with some partial sun in the last couple hours before it goes down, in some areas anyway. No complete clearing for sure.
Heading to the Patriots game Thursday night, looks a bit damp! We’ll bring a canopy for the tailgate and make the best of it, however!
Dr. Cohen is “very impressed” with the early snowcover in Siberia. Looks like he and I won’t be on the same page at this point. Siberia snow in October is actually a more solid correlation for a cold/snowy Winter in Europe than it is for the US.
Interesting. Thanks TK.
Yes, interesting…Thanks TK.
If Siberian snowcover is not a solid correlation for a cold/snowy winter for the US, then what is it TK??
There is no ONE solid correlation. It’s always, ALWAYS a combo of many trends and indices that must be taken into account. Every year.
Tjammer…I went to FSU (formerly FSC) back in the 1980’s and we had Columbus Day off as well as the other Federal holidays. We had Patriots Day off as well. 😀
I wonder though if there are classes at some colleges/universities today mostly due to “political correctness”. I believe Native Americans do not like this holiday and if I am not mistaken, most do not celebrate Thanksgiving as well. Every year, there is always a group of Native Americans who protest at Plymouth Rock.
If we all stood still and silent there will STILL be someone offended. 😛
Blog is updated.
Not looking forward to the over-hype that’s about to sweep the media just because of Siberia’s snowy early to mid October. We still have a full month to pull info together before we can make a reasonable long range forecast, and even then there will be doubt.