The Rest Of The Week Ahead

110 Comments

5:27PM

I hope anybody that had today off was able to enjoy it around southeastern New England, despite the day turning more grey than I had forecast. This post does not carry major changes from the previous one, with still some warmer and more humid air on the way in during the next 2 days, and a front crossing the region Thursday with showers and possible thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainly about the weather late in the week as there are still some significant model differences, but for now still leaning toward a drying/cooling trend Friday through the weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 70-75, 60s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s, some 60s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Heaviest rain most likely late afternoon and night. Lows around 60. Highs around 70.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows around 55. Highs around 70.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 45. Highs around 60.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows around 45. Highs around 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs around 60.

110 thoughts on “The Rest Of The Week Ahead”

  3. Tk regarding your posts from previous blog are you still thinking the same thoughts for this winter as earlier or have you backed of that a bit, just curious. And as always I won’t hold you to it.thanks.

  4. Thanks TK!

    Hopefully the Patriots RBs have “wet-ball” drills this week. If Ridley plays (which is probably doubtful) I will have my heart in my mouth every time he gets the ball. He could lose the ball in the middle of a desert, let alone a monsoon. 😀

  6. I know TK does not agree, but this is from wxrisk (DT’s outfit) and mentioned
    Dr. Cohen:

    Wxrisk.com
    2 hrs ·
    *** ALERT ** ALERT *** WINTER LOVERS REJOICE
    MAJOR DEVELOPMENT IN WINTER FORECAST 2014-15
    SNOW BUILD IN SIBERIA going like gangbusters off the chart…
    ( as I have been saying for 2 weeks) … Dr Judah Cohen the brillant director of seasonal forecasting who ” discovered” the connection between OCTOBER Snow cover in Siberia and Winter weather patterns in North America / Europe ( aka the -AO / +AO) has said that he is very impressed by extreme rapid build up of snow in the SIBERIA in 2014…. and thinks it will be a cold/ snowy winter in the eastern half of the US / Europe

    Link to Washington Post:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/13/fall-snow-bonanza-in-north-america-and-siberia-may-portend-brutal-winter/

      1. DT, sure. But what about what Judah Cohen has to say?
        Do we totally dismiss that?

        That was the purpose of the post.

        DT is a drama queen.

  7. Thanks TK.
    The majority of the forecasts for this winter are pointing to colder and snowier.
    Will see what happens. I am thinking snowfall about 5-10 inches below normal and temps slightly above normal.

    1. Thank you JJ.

      Very interesting, indeed.

      I keep seeing more and more of this type of Winter forecast.

      1. Sorry, John. Don’t remember as I tend to always be flexible around whatever the set date is since some people just can’t get here every day. TK will remember but I have no problems taking guesses anywhere around mid-November. I know it was not December 1, however, and think that is late.

  14. My father in law was in town for bday party and of course we decided to take all window AC out and the humidity will be bad Wed and Thursday.

    1. Yes, but what has been pointed out (Tom?), days are shorter, sun angle is much lower. In short, it will be much easier to take AND it won’t be 95, it will
      be 80 tops and more likley mid-upper 70s.

  15. Ok, now I am really confused.

    On last night’s broadcast, Eric indicated that there was a lot of WIND energy with
    the upcoming system and that there was a chance for a few SEVERE storms.
    He did NOT mention the word tornado or spin up, just SEVERE storms.

    Where and How would that happen? ALL the maps I look at give virtually ZERO
    Cape and LI of above to perhaps just barely 0.

    Can someone please explain how we would get a severe T-storm out of that?

    Is the CAPE expected to suddenly increase?

    As I said, I am confused.

  17. NWS out of Taunton does have the region in the hazardous weather outlook for Thursday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms that could produce heavy rainfall leading to flooding and strong wind gusts.

    1. From Taunton NWS office:

      THUNDERSTORMS: EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY…ABOUT 30KTS. THAT WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION HOWEVER THE LACKING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WEAK INSTABILITY EXTENDS INLAND WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD
      SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG AND E/NE OF THE FRONT. IN FACT… A STRENGTHENING S/SELY LLJ THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE WITH CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…AS MENTIONED ABOVE. STILL KEPT CHC THUNDER IN THE FORECAST ESP WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
      FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

    2. Yup.

      My main concern is the affect it will possibly have on the Pats game.

      If it were the old field, we’d be looking at the MUD BOWL. Fortunately,
      we have nice new field turf. The main problem will be the wet ball.

    1. From the SPC:

      …SUMMARY…
      A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW JERSEY…EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

      …NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES / NY / SRN NEW ENGLAND…
      THE CLOSED LOW AND PARENT ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE DAY 3 PERIOD. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE NERN STATES…AND SHOULD BEGIN TO PHASE WITH A NRN PLAINS TROUGH EXPECTED
      TO REACH NWRN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE GENERAL TSTM AREA ON THURSDAY /THAT WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/… STRONGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE /EAST OF THE
      MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND/ WILL LIMIT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WEAK INSTABILITY EXTENDING INLAND WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG AND E/NE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS THE
      DISCUSSION AREA. A STRENGTHENING S/SELY LLJ THURSDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SURFACE WITH CONVECTION IN SERN NEW ENGLAND…BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HERE TOO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

  21. Ocean temperature is 58.1 on 10/14.

    That seems above average to me.

    When we had that October snow a few years back, if I recall, the ocean temp
    was 52. Now that was the end of October, but I sure don’t see the temperature
    dropping 5 Degrees in 2 weeks time. No way, especially with it being Warm through
    Saturday.

    We will have to wait and see how this affects our upcoming snow season.
    If nothing else, almost certain to limit early season snows along the coast.
    (Unless of course the temperatures take a plunge over the upcoming 6 weeks or so.)

  22. When we had the OCtober Noreaster back in 2011 Long Island Sound temps were in the 60s. One of our meteorologist here in CT Ryan Hanrahan was amazed that the state would be getting accumulating snow even down to the shoreline with ocean temps in the 60s. It goes to show the dynamics with that storm system to overcome ocean temperatures that low to produce accumulating snowfall across all of CT.

  23. Looking Ahead. Possible Coastal later in the Month:

    0Z Euro at 216 hours, 0Z Oct 23, or 8PM Oct 22:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014101400/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_10.png

    CMC same time

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014101400/gem_mslp_wind_us_37.png

    GFS for the same time:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014101406/gfs_mslp_wind_us_34.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014101406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_33.png

  25. Good ole NAM for Thursday. I think we could bring down the CAPE, LIFT, and EHI down a bit from what the 12z run is showing
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=054

    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    1. JJ, I saw this earlier, however, when the precipitation gets here there
      is virtually NO CAPE or LIFT available at all. 😀

  26. I wonder ….

    sometimes its all in the timing … and in this case, I think its a good thing for New England ….

    There is some negative tilt to this next system coming in later this week and if this we’re taking place perhaps 36 to 48 hrs later than its going to, you have to wonder if it would have yanked that hurricane closer in towards us.

      1. That “should” probably do it, however, there is a slight chance
        that between 2 and 3 PM it sneaks up to 78??????

        BUT, what does this mean for tomorrow?

        IF we get ample sunshine, I think 80 is attainable. 😀

  32. FWIW,

    Latest SREF keeps Instability SOUTH of our area Thursday into Friday AM.
    Best helicity is at 06Z Friday, but NO instability. Cape virtually non-existent
    and positive lifted index.

    Significant tornado ingredients now showing up South of us, by about 150 miles
    or so.

  33. We are under ladybug attack….seriously, they are literally all over the house. I have six on the window over my desk alone.

      1. yes they are – and I suspect I told you how my mom wouldn’t kill them (which I will not either) and loved them in the house (which I do not). One spring we went into the attic which was more like a big room and it was literally crawling with ladybugs. After that my mom escorted them outside 🙂

    1. I think it is now pretty typical to have 70 weather tossed into October and November now. I don’t mind it – there is a great breeze and I get an evening outside 🙂

    3. I don’t like it from the perspective that I’ve gotten used to cooler weather and so this feels really warm.

      On the flip side, once it turns permanently chilly (under 50F) by Thanksgiving, then combine that with the lack of light, then combine that with the struggles of March, April and sometimes early May to get rid of the bone chilling cold, well ……. I’ll take this warmth as long as it can last, because once its gone, it takes FOREVER to come back.

      1. Well you make an excellent point with that.

        Another way to look at it is a SAVINGS on the fuel bill. 😀

          1. Yes, me too.

            WAIT A MINUTE, I don’t have central Air.
            AND the window units have long since been
            removed and stored in the attic.

            Oh well. Sun angle and short days should remedy
            that situation.

    3. Interesting indeed.

      I think the GFS has been looking that way as well. It will be interesting to see if there’s any moisture connection ????????

      1. The connection is there in trough line only. The true tropical connection would happen too late to impact this area.

  36. Anyone noticed that beast of a storm out in the Atlantic. Eric F posted a beautiful picture of it. It’s our system that passed through on Sat.

    1. Yes. It encountered perfect conditions for intensification and expansion. A little Pacific-like.

  38. According to TK, the deadline for snowfall predictions is November 16th!

    Not to speak for Vicki, but I suspect a few days thereafter would be ok. 🙂

  40. We have a seperate camp site open up for this weekends pumpkin festival in Keene, NH. I would be a terrific family camping weekend if anyone is interested……

  41. I usually have ac on till Oct on average, I can’t sleep if the temp is above 68 degrees, and typically we see 80 in oct 🙂

  42. Latest recon plane shows another 11mb drop in hurricane. At last advisory, it was 970mb, the latest pressure is 959mb ans the winds they are finding are also impressive.

    May be an intermediate advisory at 9:30pm bumping this up to a major hurricane. The eye really looks much better the last few hrs, along with a western wobble.

    1. Ooops, it already was classified major at 5pm.

      Well, thats a pretty quick pressure fall, this may be explosively intensifying. Interested to see what the winds are in the next advisory.

  43. People in Bermuda need to keep an eye on Gonzalo. Gonzalo becomes the second major hurricane of the Atlantic Season.

    1. For sure ! If the current track verifies, they’d get the right quadrant of the storm.

      Down yet another 2mb on the most recent recon vortex message …. 957 mb.

  44. Of course the right front quadrant the worst place to be in with a hurricane. Just last weekend Bermuda dealt with Fay a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds.

    1. They are built to withstand these. There will be some damage but they will do ok. Smart people out there. They will get out of the way and hide nicely.

  46. today was so nice 🙂 I studied outside in the quad today 🙂 That system looks like it could mean business for bermuda and that system that effects us looks to give us some rain

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