Weekend Outlook / Next Week / Late October

108 Comments

9:46AM

First, this weekend. It’s a transition weekend, going from a mild Saturday feeling like September to a chilly Sunday feeling like November. But that’s how we come up with averages, and October is a fickle month often combining warmth of Summer-just-ended with first hints of Winter-to-come. We’ll get that this weekend. A few showers will be around today, especially later afternoon, as a cold front approaches. Ahead of it, a gusty southwest breeze will help maintain the last of the mild air for a while. Once the front goes by tonight, the chilly air will flow in as the wind shifts to northwest. This will continue on Sunday which will be a much cooler day. There may be a few instability showers that pop up on Sunday but it will be a mainly dry day. At night, high pressure moves overhead, the sky clears out, and the temperature drops. Frost may be forming in many areas outside urban centers and away from the immediate shore.

Next week (Monday-Friday): Enjoy a bright and cool October day Monday because that will likely be the only time you see the sun for the remainder of this 5-day period (unless we luck out later Friday). As a small high pressure area delivers the nice weather Monday, low pressure will be dropping through the Great Lakes and heading for the northern Mid Atlantic. It will then evolve into a new storm system trapped under an upper level low pressure area that sits and spins for 4 days, starting Tuesday, bringing unsettled and chilly weather to southeastern New England. It’s hard to say at this point how much rain will fall in total during this period, but there is the potential for some significant amounts, which will be good in that it will continue to alleviate the deficit, but could also lead to some flooding issues should it persist heavily enough. We’ll also have to be on the lookout for coastal flooding due to onshore wind over a prolonged period of time and higher astronomical tides around the New Moon (next Thursday).

Late October: It’s not often I offer any detail beyond my normal 7-day forecasting period, but today a little look into what may transpire as we go through the last weekend and work week of October (Saturday October 25 through Friday October 31). Behind the departing prolonged storm should come a windy and colder weekend. There are hints that it may even be cold enough around October 26 for the first snowflakes to fall in some areas, including the Boston area. Not a snowstorm, but rain and snow showers due to cold air moving in while it is also unstable. Following this, a significant warm-up may take place as we head toward Halloween.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered rain showers. Remote risk of thunder. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers early then partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy, clouds most dominant midday, sun increasing later. Isolated rain showers possible mainly inland higher elevations. Highs upper 40s interior hills to 50-55 elsewhere. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 34. High 55.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Late rain. Low 42. High 52.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Windy. Low 42. High 49.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Windy. Low 43. High 48.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lingering rain. Windy. Low 44. High 54.

108 thoughts on “Weekend Outlook / Next Week / Late October”

  1. Thanks TK. Heading to Belmont for a picnic in my moms park. Beautiful fall day you have provided for us 🙂

    1. Be on the look-out for a quick-hitting shower. There was even a thunderstorm in north central MA to southwestern NH earlier!

      1. Thanks all. It was perfect. Torrential rain through Lincoln and wayland on way home kept driving to 25 mph.

    1. Thanks OS! As always love your fun and often funny posts on the blog. Keep them coming. 🙂

      I suspect we’ll see some colorful adjectives from you about next week’s weather, especially a few days into Boston being 50 or lower with persistent northeast wind and frequent wet weather. 😉

        1. If not you, somebody will say: “Why can’t we save a storm like this for January when it’s in the 20s and it snows for 4 days and we have 2 feet over that period of time?” … Looks like another 100 hour storm coming! 😉

          1. Nah, however, I AM surprised that 850 MB temps
            are forecast to be so WIMPY during the event. I was hoping for SNOW somewhere.

  4. Somebody will ask “Why do you have 54 Friday after upper 40s Wednesday/Thursday if we’re still going to have the same storm spinning just off the coast?” so I will answer it here: Milder air getting drawn into a mature storm which is not really generating anymore cold air to bring down from above to counteract the fact it has circulated all the way round the low center and come into the region from the northeast and north. I know it’s just a high temp forecast 7 days in advance, but that’s the thought process behind it.

  5. Re: Bermuda

    A couple of initial thoughts this morning.

    1. Thankfully, Gonzalo diminished in strength prior to hitting the Island.
    2. At one point the entire Island was within the Eye.
    3. I have searched all over for photos. The best were available from TWC. From
    what I can see, although there was some damage, they came away it decent shape
    considering what could have happened. Perhaps more devastating photos will
    become available later, but so far, so good. Hope all is well as this is one of our
    favorite places.

  6. I dont know if anyone else is feeling this way ….

    Btwn the recent warm weather, focusing on Hurricane Gonzalo and a very busy recent schedule with parent-teacher conferences …..

    It hit me this morning that its beyond mid October.

    As a result, we now have post 7am sunrises, pre 6 pm sunsets, less than 11 hrs of sun and I’ve been noticing in far northern latitudes, very cold air is starting to occur. Seeing teens, even a few single digits.

  9. More on Siberia snow from DT:

    MORE NEWS ON SNOW COVER BUILD UP IN SIBERIA… it is still going Boom….

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10492095_761950520518875_3403754241735624370_n.jpg?oh=5e7f2ac835e53a8e6b847fa6ab709138&oe=54B65F4D&__gda__=1421107189_9358911e36ee5bfe34ce43302ccaa19d

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10478442_761950707185523_8778348749924243279_n.jpg?oh=486936ff012853de6f9fdbc1c0b0dafa&oe=54F394A8&__gda__=1420774689_cb8f80022a1680668cb7f2c4bf406be1

    2. I wonder if that is partially a result of the huge, anomolous unfrozen arctic ocean to their north. The summer, open ice made it to 85N Latitude and was open fairly early in the season, allowing fir above normal SST.

      Perhaps, as the air cools quickly, there’s been some ocean enhancement or cean effect snow, where if conditions are average, there should not be.

  10. Is it just my feed or is everyone receiving many different post or emails saying Sept has been the warmest earth ever has been? Also that the government is starting test in the atmosphere to see if they can change weather. Crazy stuff!! Not that I believe everything 🙂

    1. I did see a post about the warmest September ever (during our very, very brief record keeping era) from Brett Anderson at accuweather. I havent received any emails or posts on it otherwise however.

  12. Thanks TK. Agree with OS. Very nice write up and excellent thought regarding Friday’s high. Makes a lot of sense!

  13. TK. OS it unusual to get a storm to sit like that with a NAO that will most likely be neutral? Or this more to do with the AO?

  14. The 12z run of the GFS set the low up in a place that slams the northern half of our forecast area more than the south. Sill gives Boston close to an inch and a half by next Sat.

  17. A few rumbles of thunder embedded in the rain here in Plymouth, NH. Not much but pretty unexpected, didn’t think we could get enough instability for thunder today.

    1. Actually the forecast was correct.
      “Scattered rain showers. Remote risk of thunder.”
      We had scattered rain showers. Some were heavy.
      There were also a couple isolated thunderstorms around.
      Worked out quite well in my opinion. 🙂

    1. That’s good news Charlie . It’s a gorgeous island as we have been there twice via boston to Bermuda cruise. We can’t wait to go back.

  20. A l ine of something out by Springfield.

    Some juicy convection was evident SW and then South of Boston.
    MISSED here altogether.

  21. Freeze watch posted for tomorrow night, inland just away from the coastline.

    After the last few days, this is going to be quite an adjustment.

  24. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=hawaii%20radar&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CC0QFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fradar.weather.gov%2FConus%2Fhawaii_loop.php&ei=5tZCVMNox5nIBJjJgYAO&usg=AFQjCNGRfGRSWez7PdUhNOHpdD4Xs61Q1A&bvm=bv.77648437,d.aWw

    A miss for the wind, but I’ve got to think the northwest end of the big island is seeing flash flooding.

    I also think due to the terrain, the NE tradewinds are downslope winds and thus some western parts of these islands tend to be quite dry. But, with the way this system is passing south of them, it might be those dry areas getting the heaviest rain in this case.

  26. It was nuts! Keene is small, the riots were in the neighboring block from the festival. Thank god it did not spill over to Main Street. We were on the street going to look at the commotion before the first ambulance and cops pulled up. Once they did the kids erupted. Complete mayhem! We just left the alumni center and I wanted to walk down their against my wife’s wishes. We turned around and went back to the festival after seeing the bottles being thrown. My wife is a keene state alum and is sadden by the events their the last two years.

    1. We are glad to hear you are safe. But what a shame that they had to act up like that. Big black mark for the school, unfortunately. Hopefully this time some sharp discipline and learned lessons lead to this being a thing of the past.

      1. There is a rage company that is liable for all if this. They go all over New England. They get these kids going and then there is no stopping them.

        1. Coastal. We are all so glad you are ok. Everyone here was worrying. Daughter saw the news first and knew you were there. Such a shame this happens

  28. I’ve had a few people ask me what went wrong with the forecast today…
    Umm, the forecast was correct. Not sure what they were reading/listening to.

    1. I’d agree. It was exactly as forecast. By 9:30 We had moved our plans up a bit to stay ahead of any rain.

      1. I had it, Barry was talking about it this morning. I didn’t see everybody, but I know even AccuWeather had it.

  29. That breeze outside is brining the chill in. Brrrr

    JR. just said if we were 6-7 weeks down the road we would be in for a whopper and said that Oct is a good indicator for the winter. He sort seemed to indicate that the jet stream might buckle in winter like this.

    1. It’s late October/November that are most decent in piecing together correlations for Winter.

    1. Hello jj, I’ve been to AT&T stadium twice with many friends that like dallas, they say jerry jones has ruined there team with what he’s done with the stadium, the times we’ve went, there r 40,000 of the opponents team there at every home game, and the Dallas offense actually had to have a silent count, at there own stadium. My friends are not happy, they want Irving back 🙂

      1. Most of the fans in the stadium r watching the tv the whole time, and not the field, it’s rather bizarre football experience 🙂

  34. Ugh!! Don’t like this tempature this morning. But as tk has been saying its short lived so I can handle it.

  35. Thanks Charlie.
    Cowboys the surprise team of this 2014 season. There offensive line looks good and more of a balanced offense where Tony Romo is not throwing the ball all the time. I hope the defense holds for the season and hopefully when the calendar turns to December they won’t struggle which has happened a lot in recent years.

    1. In all due respect I have a chance to win bigtime money today off a $20 card, big money $1100. One of the picks the guys made is giants .

      1. Will see how they come out after being embarrassed last week against the Eagles and no Victor Cruz as he is out for the season.

  36. What’s all the fuss about the chill? I was just out. It’s nice out there.
    No problem with the weather whatsoever. 😀

    It’s a balmy 54.1 here.

    Now this butthead of a n’oreaster? Well that’s different. NO NEED of that.

  37. We just got back home. What a terrific weekend! Weather wise we couldn’t ask for more. It was a warm Friday into Saturday evening but this morning was perfectly chilly, around 45. We did have to dodge a few light showers but that was easy.

      1. We do also north. It just clears out the house and feels great. My allergies will not thank me later but I cannot resist

  39. After some really nice colors on the trees around here, things have gone dull and some trees are becoming bare. I thought the recent rains would have helped the foliage.

    1. Thanks JJ. They weren’t the only team that messed up the card for us, oh well always next week. Congrats on Dallas .

      1. Thanks John. Redskins next Monday night then Arizona home and Jacksonville in London before the bye.
        The Arizona game in my opinion is going be the toughest of those three games.

  45. Hi all!
    Have not been near the computer for a while.
    Will be posting The Week Ahead by 10PM.

    Preview…
    Sunny Monday, stormy weather sets in Tuesday, continues midweek, starts to let go Friday. Windy, cool to cold weekend. Warm-up in the final days of October. In other words, no change from the previous thinking. 🙂

  46. I love watching football JJ and enjoy all of the teams except the jets as I hate them and despise Rex Ryan.

  47. I don’t like Rex Ryan either. If the team continues to play like they have done I don’t see him back next season. He runs his mouth way too much although has quieted down some this season and last. The thing Rex Ryan needs to remember is your team never won anything as long as you have been head coach no AFC East title or AFC championship title. The only reason you made it to the first AFC Championship was because the last game of the season the Colts took their starters out for the second half the last game played that season.

    1. Well said JJ. He’s just a punk. Good night 4:15 coming fast. Off till Thursday after tomorrow as my wife is having a defibulator replaced on Tuesday .

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