Slow Low To Go, Then Fast Flow

150 Comments

7:34AM

The cut-off low pressure area will finally wander away today and tonight but not after causing one more mainly cloudy and partially damp day today. This will be replaced by a fast-flowing jet stream pattern with changing weather over the next several days. The weekend will feature fair and mild weather Saturday, fair and cool weather Sunday, bisected by a cold front Saturday night with no more than a few showers. A warm front slides into the region Monday with some cloudiness to start, more sun to finish, and the start of a warm-up, which will continue Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front slides through late Wednesday with some clouds and a shower risk. A small area of high pressure comes along Thursday with fair weather and slightly cooler air, based on current timing.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle and scattered light rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers mainly near east coastal areas this afternoon. Breaks of sun possible late. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 40-45. Diminishing NW wind.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing rain showers. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun & clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 72.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

150 thoughts on “Slow Low To Go, Then Fast Flow”

  1. In case anyone is wondering what I think 8 to 10 days out: Storm on October 31 would probably be a Lakes Cutter or just east of there and would also be moving fairly quickly. Brief but sharp cold shot 1st weekend of November.

  5. By the numbers …..

    9 days until DST ends and a sunset of 4:36 pm.

    17 days until Boston’s latitude drops below 10 hrs of sun per day.

    29 days, when the sun will be overhead 20S Latitude and the sun will climb only 27 or so degrees above the horizon.

    39 days to the start of Meteorological Winter.

    60 days and the northbound journey of the sun begins again, along with a slow increase in daylight.

  10. Its only 1 run, but the 12z EURO is not as deep with the trof the first few days of November. Somewhat zonal flow more than anything else and as a result, instead of seeing -5 to -10C at 850mb, its temps are around 0C, maybe even a couple degrees above.

    I think that would imply 55 – 60F, as opposed to say mid 40s. We’ll see if its the start of a trend or an outlier run.

    1. Pretty cool. Thanks OS! What I’d really like to know is what is the departure from normal for Siberian snow cover right now.

    3. What im getting at is, i know theres a correlation there between snow cover in Oct and the – phase of the AO and its affects on our winters, but is that only with much more than normal snowcover, just above normal, does keeping the snowcover into the next month matter?

        1. I just read this whole thing (it’s Friday and I have had it for the week!!!!) This is very well done. Here are the conclusions:

          Please take the time to read it. It’s worth it. Very educational.

          It is also worth noting that OTHER factors must also be weighed before making a Winter Outlook. Based on this alone, one might expect a colder, snowier Winter here
          in the NorthEast. BUT there might be other mitigating factors. VERY Interesting.

          WE SHALL SEE.

  14. its way out there but that storm that the gfs was hinting at. is based one when energy from canada merges with energy from the gulf. right now the gfs has it way out to sea when it does merge…. Then the euro has a lake cutter both of which i think we see alot of this winter

    1. Hard to name one event but can narrow it down to 3, which are regional to somewhat widespread:

      -1938 Hurricane
      -Worcester Tornado
      -Blizzard of 1978

    2. Not that I was around for all of these, but the following would
      be my TOP 3 in no particular order:

      Hurricane of 1938, September 21, 1938
      Worcester Tornado, June 9, 1953
      Blizzard of 78, February 6-7, 1978

      I suppose we could add the great Colonial Hurricane of August 1635
      But that’s going back too far. 😀

      Btw, there was an excellent book written giving a complete accounting
      of the Worcester Tornado. I have read it and found it to be chillingly fascinating.

      Here is a link to it on Amazon. I high recommend it. It may not be a literary classic, but for a weather Geek it is off the charts!!

      http://www.amazon.com/Tornado-84-Minutes-94-Lives/dp/0963627708

  16. I’m glad someone finally mentioned that there are “other factors” besides Siberian snowcover to take into account. 😉

    Oh wait, I said that weeks ago. 😀

    Matt, I believe your early thoughts are on the right track… Storm tracks through the Lakes and another o.t.s. track are typical of a split flow, non-phasing pattern, which I believe we may be in for during much of the coming winter.

    1. You did say that for sure. I still hope you are incorrect.

      There are 2 solid polar opposite camps by very many reputable Mets.

      I for one, can’t ignore either one, which is why I am so perplexed.

      I tend to see more about the Colder, stormier scenario.

      I am open, but you know what I want.

      I am still leaning towards going high on the snow totals. I “may” change
      my mind towards the deadline when I see the latest info on EL NINO. 😀

  17. Staying away from the biggies in my lifetime, 3 others I’d like to make mention of are …

    Hurricane Bob ….. August 2nd, 1975 hot day …. Spring 1987 flooding

    1. December 9 1978…. Storm as well as our wedding :). And for some reason Gloria always sticks in my mind more than Bob.

      Hurricanes Carol also…Edna. Were those the names early 50s

    2. Tom you read my mind as I was also thinking about that hot day in August of 75. I was downtown that night and remember around 11pm one of the bank thermometers was still showing mid 90s for a temp.

      1. I had forgotten that day and would never have thought of it if you had both not mentioned it. We helped a family friend who had just been hired as a professor at Dartmouth move into her home on campus. We had no idea of the actual temperature. I remember when we got home at night I slept on the porch which I typically did when hot. But there was no relief even there.

  18. I never heard of the hurricane of 1944 that is up for a vote on WXedge.com for most memorable storm to affect CT.
    If someone remembers that one I would like to hear about it. I remember the hurricane of 1938 and the others that are up for vote but no the hurricane of 1944.

  19. Southern New England Weather Conference tomorrow!
    I’ll be there.
    Anybody else here going?

      1. JC is a friend of mine. She is a very kind-hearted person. She’ll always love weather. Ironically I’m also friends with a teacher she had in elementary school. Small world. 🙂

        1. I know I was hoping you could hook us up lol. But I’m sure her husband or my wife would not like that.

          1. I’ll be there TK (mentioned that a couple days ago)! Hopefully I’ll meet you, I’ll be the real tall, nerdy looking college kid with glasses. Can’t miss me 🙂

            1. I’m not too tall: 5’6″.
              Depending on how warm it is in there I’ll most likely be wearing jeans and a black vest that says Atlas with a little fireworks logo on it. If it’s chilly in there I may have a black/grey fleece jacket on.

  20. Hello, biggest hurricane I’ve experienced is Gloria. We are long overdue for a hurricane, looking like a beautiful late Oct weekend, tommorrow could hit 70 degrees!! Nov begins in a week, don’t forget to fall back. The next 12 weeks are the shortest days of the year 🙁

  21. The 3 worst natural disasters I’ve experienced are The April Fools Blizzard, picking up tennis ball sized hail from a supercell storm in Texas, and Hurricane Gloria when trees were falling from 80 mph winds, while electricity was out, it was awesome!! Anyways I’ve only been here for a little over 40yrs so that’s how I remember them 🙂

  22. Its hard to pick one storm that is memorable that affected the area.
    In my lifetime for hurricane I would say Gloria, for severe weather July 10, 1989, and for snowstorm Blizzard of 2013.

  24. No surgery at this point. He said I could do it if I wanted but he would wait and exhaust all options. So I will work on all those things and see if it helps. Feeling somewhat dejected bc I really wanted a resolution. Anyway I have to treat this like a disease and beat it. Thanks for the kind encouragement. I need it right now 🙁 🙁

    1. I really believe that being positive is the best medicine but incredibly hard to do when you are in such pain. Always remember we are here for support and hugs and anything else that will help you as you beat this. Hugs, Hadi!!

  26. GFS looks interesting once again:

    Surface for Sat evening 11/1 (Dinner with the kids, figures!)

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

    Notice the 540 line!

    850mb chart:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102506/gfs_T850_us_32.png

    BRRR Plenty cold enough for SNOW, IF this were to verify, it would be a matter
    of WIND direction. The more Northerly, the more snow. The more Easterly, the more rain. 😀

    Don’t know what happened to the Lakes Cutter. Euro even has something, although
    NOT the same as GFS:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014102500/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_10.png

    Note Euro is MUCH warmer with 850mb temps above freezing.

      1. Looks As if there is a fun warching week upcoming. Still snow in the picture. I’m surprised and encouraged…..yep, I know it will poof but will enjoy thinking it may be so.

        1. I wonder if Hurricane Ana, which re-energized one final time yesterday ….. and is now being absorbed into a Pacific frontal system, is now being taken into account by the models and thus, we’re seeing some other scenarios this morning for the long term.

          2. That storm is progged to plow into coastal
            British Columbia of all things. I’d say it would
            have some sort of impact on the US. 😀

              1. Jim Cantore
                7 hrs ·
                Can’t say that I have ever thought about BC for a destination to cover a tropical system.

            2. Thanks OS, I didnt know exactly where it was supposed to impact.

              Ana isnt taking the traditional tropical to extratropical transition track up into eastern Russia, western Alaska, as it is bring absorbed just north and west of Hawaii.

              This entity has been around for weeks.

                2. Then it jumps the Rockies

                  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

                  Comes out South of Lakes

                  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

                  Develops on the coast

                  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

                  Move off NE and redevelops Westward and becomes OUR storm!!

                  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

        2. Very difficult to get snow with that ocean currently sitting
          at 55 Degrees. However, som models are forecasting
          a very cold shot of air for this time of year. Look at
          the 850MB temps and the 1000-500MB thickness.

          So, if we get a coastal and NOT a cutter AND the Wind
          becomes more NNE to N we “could” get a changeover
          to SNOW on the coast with Snow inland, not unlike the
          big October storm of 2011.

          NOT likely to pan out the same way, but fun to watch.
          I don’t think this one goes poof as a storm, but may
          end up a cutter, inside runner or even OTS. It has to
          be perfect for snow.

              1. I’ll make the temp luke warm. 🙂

                Need a good balance, too mild for autumn, but just right for Christmas forward with huge vertical temp differentials btwn ocean temp and 850.

  27. Conference snippets…

    Don’t pay attention to the GFS.

    The worst flooding ever in Edgartown occurred in the 1944 hurricane. Carol was second worst.

        1. Boo

          well then, when a lay person looks at a model run,
          how would they ever know whether or not it is a decent run?

          1. They can’t. That is one of our jobs with the degree we earn. And we just hope to apply the science correctly enough to make the right call.

    2. You needed to go to the conference to learn THAT (GFS) ? 🙂 🙂 🙂

      In all seriousness TK, have a great time, the Conference IS wonderful !! Hope to be able to make a future one. An important commitment got in the way this afternoon.

  28. OK, not paying attention to the GFS, but it has ANA traveling across the Pacific to British COlumbia, Redeveloping East of the Rockies, dropping to the US Plains, under
    the Lakes and across the Appalachians to SC and UP the COAST to NE.

    HOW cool is that!!!

    Will it happen? I guess not, according to TK.

    1. But its on the EURO as well, I think ….. because all of a sudden this morning, some big upper level system appeared in the southeast out of nowhere during that 11/1 thru 11/3 timeframe.

  29. Not for nothing,l but the Euro also takes ANA along a similar path to the GFS. 😀

    We’ll just keep watching and see what shakes out.

  30. I will never make the mistake of using surface temps to determine snow:water ratios again.

    More on that later.

  33. Heading out, but before I do ….

    As a father of two daughters, I hope that our workforce will continue to evolve towards EQUAL opportunity for women, so that in another 15 years, I can be sure that if my daughters are qualified for a job, they have an equal chance at the position.

    Which brings me to the new meteorologist hire at WHDH, Bri Eggers.

    In doing some research, it appears she earned a non-meteorology degree some time ago, then most recently passed a broadcast meteorology program at Mississippi State. Looks like a rigorous 17 course program.

    I understand she has been working as a TV Met in Idaho, with a few years experience.

    With that said …….. and ….. there’s no one more than me who needed some time to gain experience in his first few years of teaching to become the improved (I hope 🙂 ) teacher that I am today, I get that everyone needs some slack cut early in their careers to gain the experience needed to become high performing in their craft.

    All I guess I am coming to is this ……. I’ll root for the new meteorologist, but I wonder if she’s in a place to succeed ….

    Lets take a look at Idaho and Boston weather. Take for instance when the two regions get their coldest weather …… Boston, from the north and northwest. In Idaho, THAT wind direction is either modified Pacific air or Pacific air. ….. What experiences gained in the local Idaho weather are going to assist someone here in Boston …… Take a rain/snow line. Usually in New England, your looking east or southeast for one to setup ……… in Idaho, I’m guessing it sets up to the west and most times retreats eastward.

    Why do I feel the need to comment on this ….. Well, for sure, we’ll need time to see how accurate she is. Its just that, sometimes, I just dont know that the best METEOROLOGISTS are hired by TV stations, period. Until Eric Fisher’s hire, I’d say you had to always be suspicious of ch 4 with Barry Burbank on such a reduced role.

    Anyhow, I certainly dont mean to cause a big emotional response, but rather perhaps this will generate a cordial discussion if anyone is interested.

    I certainly am open for other perspectives on the matter.

    Have a good afternoon all.

    1. Tom

      I am with you on Equal opportunity for Women and most especially, equal pay for equal work!!!

      re: Female mets

      My favorites:

      JC Monahan (even if she does the news now)
      Mish Michaels

      1. Mish Michaels is an avid equestrian and used to give the best forecasts to prepare my oldest and her friends for blanketing their horses in winter.

      2. Absolutely equal pay as well !

        I also think Cindy Fitzgibbons is very accurate, Sarah W. (formally of ch 4 and now on 25) is very accurate as well. Both give an excellent weather presentation.

    2. I know nothing about this woman and wish her only the best as she joined my favorite weather team. Lately, however, WHDH seems more focused on gender appeal for positioning and perhaps, with your comments Tom, hiring than qualification. I do not know how to explain it without sounding sexist. I am anything but sexist as I have decades of exposure to the inequality that exists. I’m not sure the WHDH management has anyone’s best interest as a top priority and could care less about setting anyone up for failure. The Saving grace is she has Pete and JR. I have total confidence they will take her under their wings.

      I have to qualify this by saying in my experience I do not think the workplace is equal for women. I hope I am completely wrong but with other things I’ve seen whdh do, your comments give me room for pause, Tom.

    2. Harvey just seems like a straight shooter kind of laid back guy . I’d like too meet him someday as he is my favorite tv met.

    1. Wxrisk.com added 3 new photos.

      *** UPDATE ON POSSIBLE BIG EAST COAST STORM OCT 31-NOV 2….
      Not only has the Saturday afternoon European model not backed off of 10/30…. 11/1 …11/2…. .. if anything its more impressive than before. The 500 low tracks over state of VA /Nc and brings down a huge pool of REALLY cold air over all of WVA … WESTERN VA ..WESTERN Md … WESTERN NC… yes cold enough for Snow for in those areas… again over all of I-95… Rain & Wind

  36. Enjoyed meeting you today TK 🙂

    Harvey sure is funny, never realized he could be that way. Very interesting conference, on a wide range of subjects. The snow ratio presentation was definitely one of the more interesting ones. I didn’t quite understand much of it but I got the gist.

    2. It was a pleasure meeting you!

      You’ll be able to learn more and fill in the gaps. Hopefully you can attend next year’s conference. 🙂

      Harvey has always had that sense of humor but as he gets older he just gets funnier. I’m about to update the blog, and one thing I know is: “There’ll be no F in fog tonight.” 😉

  37. Are we having a gathering before the winter season?
    I would suggest the 99’s at the middlesex turnpike or the one in Billerica on rt3 by the Town Plaza

    1. Funny, I just came from the 99 – in Woburn. 🙂
      Post-conference dinner!

      BTW we took a photo with all past and current U Lowell / UMass Lowell students there. Should be able to grab a copy of it to post soon.

  39. The difference between the ECMWF and other models, especially the GFS, regarding the first few days of November, is remarkable. This is going to be a big test to find out how good the ECMWF is really performing. If that storm verifies in any way like it is depicted by the Euro, that model is surely king again.

  40. Saw the first snow flakes icons on the 8 day forecast for next weekend from WTNH our ABC station here in CT.
    Meteorologist Justin Goldstein quickly pointed out no accumulating snow just some snow showers possible. Hopefully that icon will be showing up a lot for the upcoming winter.

  41. Both the Euro and the Gfs have the two areas of energy.
    GFs has them not merging and it being chilly. with the northern one giving the area rain and snow showers
    euro has the two areas of energy.
    one from the north dips down from the lakes and meats up with another area of energy from the southeast states to form one big storm that forms off the virginia/north caralina coast , moves up the coast and moves right on over new england putting us int he warm section… Of course this is next weekend and past so lots of watching to do 😀

    2. I just hope the 4 – 6 week estimate on Chara ends up accurate.

      If it does, in some way, it has some options for turning out positive.

      At 37, not playing 82 games may allow him to be more fresh for the playoffs.

      Also, with Seidenberg and Hamilton, who I think can take his game to another level, they have 2 very good defensemen. I like Krug, whose offense can make up for any defensive mistakes and then if 1 or 2 other guys can hold the fort, then I think they can be more than fine.

        1. Thanks John …. I’m really rooting for the Bruins because I think they are currently Boston’s best shot at a championship.

          Pats would be 2nd, but I just think their worlds below Denver, miles below Indy and I’m not even sure if they could beat Cincinnati or San Diego on the road in the playoffs.

  43. I find it to be a fairly mild, late October night. Just returned home and the combo of the mild temps and not to much wind are very pleasant.

    1. Agree Tom. It seemed the neighborhood was out with kids playing around Halloween decorations until about 8:00. Perfect fall night and warmish for late October.

  44. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The 1989 World Series was interrupted by …
    A. An earthquake
    B. Flash flooding
    C. Darkness
    D. A snowstorm

    Answer later today. (At the time, I was living in the city where the 1989 Series took place.)

      1. Macs brother and family also live there. They were visiting us. That was the year of Hugo and Macs parents who lived just east of Charleston were here during the series too

    1. No changes to Winter thoughts. If anything, I feel more comfortable about them after talking to some colleagues yesterday.

      However I do agree with the risk of snow showers being included at the end of this current forecast, which I have just updated (go check it out!).

      Keep in mind, day 7 is low confidence normally but even moreso this time.

  47. In case anyone missed my reply above, new blog is posted!

    Longshot, feel free to repost quiz there.

    I have a set of errands this morning and then this afternoon is Woburn’s big Halloween Parade! I’ll be listening to the Pats in my ears while enjoying this parade which arrives at my viewing spot about 1:25PM and takes about 2 hours to pass.

Comments are closed.