Quick Update

131 Comments

7:42AM

Quick update which is basically a copy/paste of parts of the previous discussion and a few new thoughts going forward.

The repeat portion…

Today… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in some rain.

Weekend… 2-part storm with part 1 being the closer redevelopment of the low from the Great Lakes producing some periods of light rain and drizzle mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, and part 2 being the evolution and deepening of a second storm too far east to bring steady rain to anywhere except probably Cape Cod but a gusty wind and a draw-down of colder air for the rest of the region. The snow threat is out of the equation with this scenario, which seemed most likely all the while. Cannot rule out a few rain/snow showers around the back side of the low at some point on Sunday over southeastern NH and eastern MA.

Early next week… Fair with a warming trend, though still on the chilly side Monday with the meaningful warm up more for Election Day Tuesday and Wednesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s coast. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT – HALLOWEEN: Lots of clouds evening with trick-or-treat temperatures 45-50 and a light breeze. Overnight cloudy with a chance of light rain or drizzle especially near the coast, lows 40-45, and wind turning light NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, especially afternoon and especially eastern and southeastern areas. Highs 45-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, a rain or snow shower possible. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.

131 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  4. Longshot provides great quizes. Not to ever take LongShot’s place, but anyone
    interested in a little snowfall quiz?

    If not, that’s fine. If so, here goes:

    What is the annual average snowfall for Flagstaff Arizona?
    Flagstaff is about 145 miles North of Phoenix and is situated at 7,000 feet above
    sea level. All totals rounded to the nearest inch.

    A. 48 inches
    B. 72 inches
    C. 100 inches
    D. 140 inches

    No cheating as it is very easy to look up. 😀

      1. I must have known it as well. A little while back I was looking at Humphrey’s Peak and the Arizona Snow Bowl and saw the
        annual snowfall for the Ski Area. I then wondered what
        the snowfall was for Flagstaff. I missed by 0.3 inch!!!

        I don’t think I’m that good, so I had to presume that
        I had looked it up before sometime during my life. 😀

  5. I know I shouldn’t be as it isn’t even November yet, but I am seriously bummed
    by the turn of events with this upcoming storm. In TYPICAL fashion it will be
    TOO LITTLE TOO LATE as per usual. Sure, I would have liked to see it snow, but
    not even getting a storm out of it at all is disappointing.

    yeah I know, I’m whining already. I FEAR a LONG and disappointing Winter may
    be ahead of us.

    1. I just don’t know how u could be dissappointed os? It’s only Nov!! Lol !! 🙂
      I can see disappointment in Feb lol but certainly not oct 30th, northeastern Maine might be your spot 🙂 good day os 🙂

  6. Thanks TK. You had mentioned a couple days ago about a big time warm up around election day. Is that still your thinking? It looks like a warm up compared to the weekend temps i see, but is it safe to assume we have seen our last of the 70s?

    2. One more 70 chance I think. But only near 60 Tuesday I think. 70 not out of question Wed but we may be near a boundary that says no.

  7. I wonder if the TV mets will learn from this one that the euro any more than a couple days out cannot be trusted and should not be the medium/long range model of choice this winter. If they don’t, there’s gonna be a lot of the same tracking of phantom storms, hyping the public, and ultimate disappointment if u like snow

    2. Even some of the NWS stations were fooled by it. Taunton surprisingly stayed mostly away from its outcome. It did nibble on the carrot but just a taste, and it was rotten 🙂

    3. Like I said yesterday, EURO TRASH!!!

      That model has essentially been GARBAGE since the big DOWNGRADE, err
      I mean UPGRADE!!!

      😆 😆 😆 😈 👿

  8. Does anyone know if they do any smaller tweaking of the models in between major upgrades? Or are they stuck with what they have after the major upgrades?

    1. Good Question.

      IF they do, I think there is a message at the website(s)???

      But, hey, I’m not sure.

  9. This one is for you OS.
    Unless one model proves itself superior, and it will take a few months to do that, i.e., Winter, then we have no King, no Queen, nothing but a few jesters.
    MODEL ANARCHY!

    1. Yes. Cold shots short lived within overall mild pattern. Below normal precip. Not much measurable snow if any..especially SE MA / RI.

  11. Re-Post as this was posted just before TK updated the blog.

    For The Mountain De Jour, I give you Wheeler Peak in Nevada at a summit elevation of 13,065 feet:

    http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/10499184.jpg

    I love photos of mountains. I have been interested since I was a child.

    Since there are many outdoors folks here, I was hoping others might like a peek
    at photos like this now and then. IF not, please let me know and I will stop posting
    them. 😀

    2. One of those pictures where you look and feel something inside go ahhhhhh. As a kid I used to sit and look at the mountains after skiing and draw them. I don’t have an ounce of artistic talent but I sure do love looking at them. Tx OS

      1. Excellent. I come across these occasionally (actually sometimes I go looking for them). I shall share some of them. 😀

        This particular one is quite breath taking.

  12. This has nothing to do with weather, but I’m hearing through the grapevine that Mr.fauria on Weei is a secret Patriot hater and is still mad from being cut yrs ago 🙂

  14. 12Z NAM is in. Looks like a wet day Saturday with some light rain from the initial
    impulse, then it stops and 2nd impulse passes OTS. Also, now temperatures appear
    to remain in the 40s throughout, with a brief window of upper 30s early Sunday AM.

    Just a nuisance is all. 😀

  15. Rest in peace Tom Menino.

    No matter what your political leanings are, it is impossible to not see this man’s dedication to public service over the years.

    1. He did more for the homeless and LGBT communities than any other mayor of his time. An outstanding public servant, with a kind family. I will miss him.

    3. He was a great man. He has been to my office here many times. I have met the man. Sad, sad day for Boston.

      The Boston Globe
      1 min ·
      Thomas Michael Menino, who insisted a mayor doesn’t need a grand vision to lead, then went on to shepherd Boston’s economy and shape the skyline and the very identity of the city he loved through an unprecedented five consecutive terms in City Hall, died today. Obituary: http://b.globe.com/1FZbcC0

    4. Oh no – I hadn’t seen this. How very tragic. We were truly blessed to have this great man to call our own.

  17. Very sad for menino and his family , I think the hand off to the new mayor was effortless and is ready to lead the future Boston 🙂

    1. Yes Charlie. I believe Marty Walsh has what it takes. Let us hope so.
      So far, so good. Marty is a good man. He cares deeply about his community as did Menino.

    1. You know I was out and barely noticed the difference in temperature from
      yesterday. Another beauty of a day. 😀

      1. The difference is the sun today. Yesterday was warmer temp wise but very little if any sun. The sun can still make u feel warmer, not the solstice yet!

  19. From Eric Fisher about an hour ago…

    12z GFS shifts farther west for snowfall…bringing more of Maine and New Hampshire in play this weekend. Something to keep an eye on.

    1. Not that it will affect most of us, BUT like he said, something to keep an eye on. Bottom line, exact track not set in stone yet.

      1. Hmmm

        I didn’t even bother looking at the 12Z GFS. But since you posted that, I did. Here are the snowfall totals for whole storm:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014103012/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_081.gif

        Please note: Most of that comes with the 1st impulse, which on this run is pretty strong and close to the coast. Only reason no snow here is TOO WARM.

        Here are a couple of surface maps:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014103012/USA_PCPPRSTMP_2m_060.gif

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014103012/USA_PCPPRSTMP_2m_066.gif

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014103012/USA_PCPPRSTMP_2m_072.gif

        Up in Maine, they get it from both impulses, while down here
        we only get RAIN from impulse #1.

            1. Indeed. Euro coming out now.

              Interesting that GFS has wave #1 pretty strong. I thought wave #2 was to be the big boy. I’m not sure the models are handling the dynamics here.

              1. Complex set-up with some crucial variables thrown in there. It seems to me the details aren’t quite worked out yet

  21. NWSBOS tweeting Q&A, tossed them an underhand pitch –

    @NWSBoston Varies from storm to storm, best is EC/GFS blend per WPC. RT @imdcaptain: which model(s) perform(s) best within 24-48 hours of storm? #AskBOX

      1. Twitter formatting is killer, this was the response:

        @NWSBoston: Varies from storm to storm, best is EC/GFS blend per WPC.

        1. I love that, “varies from storm to storm.” Sounds like the storm picks from a line-up which model is wants to use 😆

      1. I’d say about 60% of ours are on our trees but, like you, expect the wind here (not as strong as you will see) will take a good portion down.

        Oddly, and perhaps because of the contrast to the darker sky, it has seemed that the fall colors are more vibrant for the past two days.

  24. Looking like my son’s football game in Sandwich on Saturday evening should be a fun event. I hope the coaches aren’t depending on a passing game. 🙂

      1. Final game of the year so I guess we will be going out with a bang. I am going to miss the games but not so much the practices. Three nights a week was a bit tough with everything else we have going on!

        1. Oh wow – I remember and don’t miss those kinds of schedules. You are amazing parents. Always doing so many fun things for your boys!!!

    2. We have to watch a boundary to the north. Tuesday may end up the warmer of those 2 days… Not sure yet.

  26. What is going on here. Here is the 12Z FIM
    Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: Global Date: 30 Oct 2014 – 12Z

    Surface 60 hours:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014103012/130/3hap_sfc_f060.png

    Total storm precip ending 7pm Sunday night

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014103012/130/totp_sfc_f084.png

    That’s up to 2 inches in Eastern MA.

    And this run makes it look like the big blow is with the 1st impulse and 2nd impulse
    is absorbed by the 1st.

    Because the big thump is with the 1st impulse in this depiction, still too warm for
    snow, although it does get close.

    1. I was just going to mention that.

      Here is the Euro at 57 hours:

      http://i.imgur.com/tRaUZoz.png

      It is showing more of it being with the 1st impulse.
      850 MB temps COLD ENOUGH, however, surface is around 40.

      IF it would only come down hard enough, it could do it????

      This storm has a mind of its own. 😀 😀 😀

      1. This is starting to get bizarre. TK did mention a couple days ago it could snow at 40 deg at the surface. The air above will be very cold

        1. Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 1h 1 hour ago
          Forecast for this weekend not getting any easier. First low now tracks closer, second still offshore, RPM is a mess. Good times.

          1. Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 56m 56 minutes ago
            12z ECMWF has a 500mb height anomaly more than -6 SDs. Wow.

      2. It doesn’t have any mind since it really doesn’t exist yet.

        It’s the models that are doing what models do, changing solutions as data comes in run to run.

  28. There is nothing bizarre going on. The models are just trying to fine-tune things as they get more info. They will probably all over-forecast precipitation, and it will indeed be too warm for snow until the steady precipitation is gone. Only shot is outside risk of rain/snow showers Sunday.

    1. it will indeed be too warm for snow until the steady precipitation is gone.
      Virtually an axiom with autumn storms. 😀

    2. IMO, determining high impact here vs. no impact as far as precip goes is out of the realm of fine tuning. Fine tuning to me can include things like temps +/- a couple degrees, winds and wind direction, precip amounts +/- 10%, precip type in certain complex situations

  29. the 18Z NAM is handling ALL of the new information differently. Still keeps
    two (2) totally separate entities with impulse #1 and then impulse #2.

    With the NAM even #1 stays off shore. The divergence is amazing.

    Impulse #2 looks destined to be OTS as well. Watching it come it. We shall see.

  30. I don’t know IF I will have time to get on later, so for Haterain, the only one
    to take the quiz, the answer was:

    C. 100 inches (actually it is 100.3 inches)

    1. I remember telling someone that and them not believing me because “it’s the Desert SW” until I explained to them elevation and other aspects of the pattern there.

      1. Yes, very intriguing area. There is actually logging going on in that
        area. Elevation, elevation, elevation. 😀

      2. btw, the Arizona Snow Bowl ski area, about 14 miles North
        of Flagstaff at a base elevation of 9,200 feet receives an average annual snowfall of 260 inches! Amazing. Elevation and mountain climate will do it. The elevation squeezes every last ounce of moisture from any Pacific system passing through.

        1. ARIZONA SNOWBOWL – ONE OF THE OLDEST, CONTINUALLY RUN SKI AREAS IN THE U.S.
          Located on the majestic San Francisco Peaks, the Arizona Snowbowl lies 14 miles outside of Flagstaff, 2 hours from Phoenix, and 70 miles from the Grand Canyon. The resort opened in 1938 and operates from
          9 AM to 4 PM daily.

          At A Glance…
          Base elevation — 9,200 feet
          Summit elevation — 11,500 feet
          Vertical drop — 2,300 feet
          Skiable acres — 777
          Runs — 40 (37% beginner, 42% intermediate, 21% advanced); longest is 2 miles
          Chair lifts — 6 (four aerial and two surface conveyors)
          Average season — mid-December to mid-April
          Average snowfall — 260 inches

    2. OH NOOOOOO I MISSED THE QUIZ. I love quizzes. Thank you OS. I will look more closely in the future. Snifff

  31. 18Z NAM is done. See Ya. Impulse #1 very close, but OTS
    Impulse #2 WAY OTS.

    NOTHING but a few showers for the whole event.

    WOW!!! How can 1 model nail us with 2 inches of rain and the next model give us
    DIDDLY SQUAT???

    fascinating for sure.

    1. The western edge of the meaningful precipitation has to be somewhere. It’s just what the model does with the initial conditions provided to it. 🙂

      Differences of around 100 miles or so are not actually that unusual at this stage of the game. But people want detail so they are paying close attention. This is where meteorology comes into play, and that’s what we do. 🙂

      1. Yup. I just find the model divergence truly amazing, but then again they are different models with differing algorithms, so it’s only natural that from time to time there would be divergence.

        I do understand all of this, but it doesn’t stop me from bitching. 😆

  33. Looking through the spectacles, the binoculars, and the telescope…

    Spectacles: No changes to thinking in the upcoming event. Models continue to futz around with trying to figure things out as the event draws closer. Remember, models don’t automatically improve as the event is closer. There are too many factors that come into play. They GENERALLY improve, and often do, but there are times when it just does not happen. Take this into account. Also, this is not a Winter or early Spring set-up. It’s not that cold aloft. This is not a system that suddenly will back westward, generate cold air as it closes off, and turn a rain into a heavy, accumulating snow in areas that were forecast to have rain. I still believe the most sure part of this forecast is the cold bluster of Sunday and the unpleasant conditions for Manning on the field at the stadium late Sunday afternoon. 🙂

    Binoculars: So now we look beyond this upcoming event into November. I see no reason to change the ideas of how the month’s general pattern will turn out. Mild, drying out with time, but short-lived cold shots. Why? We are starting to see the beginning of the set-up of the pattern leading into early Winter.

    Telescope: End of Fall, early Winter look similar to the early ideas posted here back in late August. If the November pattern does indeed develop as expected, this pattern may and probably will continue into Winter, and that is a split flow pattern with a strong mostly zonal polar jet keeping serious cold locked in Canada except once in a while when a passing system grabs some and throws it briefly south. The Pacific jet would not interact with the polar jet very often and would transport wet weather across the South where it would have trouble coming north due to lack of phasing. Will this be the basis of the Winter forecast in 2 weeks? We shall see.

    1. Thanks for your insight. Does not bode well for snow lovers, that’s for sure.
      Perhaps things will change as we roll into November. Probably not. We shall see.

      So what is it that others see to make them think we will have a snowy colder Winter? Are they banking everything on Siberian Snow?

      Thanks

      1. It’s weather, and meteorology which is far from exact. There is always a chance something changes. 🙂

        I believe there may be too much emphasis being placed on Siberian snowcover. That means plenty of cold air will be generated in in high latitudes, but it’s not a gimme that it makes it to the northeastern US. There is a whole lot of northern hemisphere out there. 🙂

        1. Thanks TK for your analysis of the remainder of the fall and the upcoiming winter. Do you see more days of 70+ temps for November, if not near record highs?

          1. It’s not the kind of pattern that will produce record highs, just a mild one. Not to say we can’t have an anomalous warm day, or even a cold one or 2 like this weekend will turn out (especially Sunday). Monday will also be a below normal day.

            Outside shot at 70 if we stay in the warm air next Wednesday. It’s going to be hard to do after that.

  34. 18z GFS stirring the pot… too warm for snow in SNE but it’s got the whole Nor’easter package. Northern low becomes the dominant one, soaks SNE and buries Maine in feet of snow. Fun stuff 🙂

    1. We’ve seen this forecast by GFS and other models in the past. It will probably not verify quite like it is shown.

    2. I guess. Snowfall map

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014103018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090

      Height of storm for Maine

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014103018&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=072

      What a beast!!!!!!!

      NOT at anytime do 850 MB temps go below freezing in Eastern MA.

      Just a soaker!!!

      total precip

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014103018&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=090

  38. Hmmm

    18Z Fim is extremely interesting calling for snow down to Boston.
    Ditto SREF.

    What up wit dat?

    Waiting on 0Z run of GFS, Euro and CMC.

    0Z run of NAM breaks it into 3 impulses. Wacked!!!

    We shall see.

    2. Remember these models don’t fully account for temperatures at the surface and in the boundary layer.

      Massive errors result.

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