Simplenalysis

279 Comments

1:27AM

You’ll get plenty of over-analyzing of the impending foul weather situation wherever you turn for information, so for this post I’m going to simplify the analysis and just explain how I think it’s going to evolve, and what will result in southeastern New England. And we’ll look beyond this as well, of course, out through 7 days. So here goes…

High pressure centered north of New England starts to give way and retreat to the northeast today. While this is going on, low pressure dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic will transfer its energy to a frontal boundary offshore. The result will be a series of low pressure areas along this boundary, all moving northeastward over the water southeast to east of New England beginning in the early hours of Saturday and continuing through the late hours of Sunday. The first wave of low pressure will be far enough offshore to keep any steady and significant precipitation out at sea, but an onshore flow with plenty of moisture will bring lots of clouds and the chance of some drizzle and light rain to the region mainly after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning. I’m still expecting dry but cool conditions for Friday evening Halloween activities. A second low pressure wave will develop a little more and come just a little closer, bringing a better chance of rain to southeastern and eastern MA, possibly as far west as RI, and into southeastern NH as well. Most of this will occur during Saturday afternoon and evening. Though we will be feeling a chill, the air will still be too warm to support any snow, so this event will be rain. The final low pressure area will become the strongest, but will likely pass too far east to bring steady or heavy rain with the exception of Cape Cod early Sunday. Only rain showers and possibly snow showers will take place over the remainder of the region as cold air continues to work in from the north. At the same time it will also be drying out, and this may limit the rain/snow shower activity. What will take place is increasing northeast to north winds during the course of the weekend so that by Sunday much of the region is blustery with very gusty winds, strongest in higher elevations and in the coastal plain. By Sunday night, we’ll clear out as the final storm moves away.

Monday will be a bright but chilly day as low pressure continues to distance itself from New England and high pressure tries to build in from the west, the core of it passing southwest of New England. This high will then move offshore allowing a warm-up to take place Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north by Thursday with some increase in clouds and a chance of rain showers. At 7 days away, this is subject to some change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
HALLOWEEN EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures 45-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and light rain mainly after midnight favoring coastal areas. Lows 40-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain through midday. Better chance of rain afternoon especially southeastern to eastern MA and southeastern NH. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, heaviest near eastern coastal areas. Lows 35-40, lower 40s South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely Cape Cod through midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny elsewhere with scattered rain showers early then only a slight chance of rain/snow showers during midday and afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH, possibly higher some coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 60.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of PM rain showers. Low 55. High 65.

279 thoughts on “Simplenalysis”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. I have seen varying forecasts on rain intensity / rainfall amounts, but any way you look at it is going to be damp all weekend if you live in SENE. Also wondering about your thoughts on wind later in the day Sunday … there is a 4:25 PM kickoff in Foxboro.

    On another note, the Pacific keeps on cranking them out!
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

    1. Euro has 850 temps AOK, but boundary layer just too warm.

      Interesting the way the models have handled new data each day.

      I think IF this were the dead of Winter, I’d be going nuts!!!

      Now, it’s gonna rain, nope, yup, maybe, I dunno Who cares!

      Let’s see IF the snow in Maine materializes or not.

  7. WHAT IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH?

    METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

    A shortwave trough can be defined in several ways. The following are characteristics that most shortwave troughs possess:

    (1) Shortwaves are smaller than longwave troughs
    (2) Shortwaves have a counterclockwise kink to the height contours
    (3) They are associated with an upper level front or a cold pool aloft
    (4) Shortwaves generate positive curvature vorticity and positive shear vorticity
    (5) Shortwaves often represent baroclinicity in the troposphere (WAA and CAA)
    (6) Shortwaves are imbedded within the longwave trough / ridge pattern
    (7) Shortwaves are best located on the 700 and 500 mb chart / prog
    (8) Rising motion occurs within the exit sector of a shortwave
    (9) Their size and influence ranges from the mesoscale to the synoptic scale
    (10) Shortwaves move faster than longwaves (usually more than twice as fast).

    The link below has examples of shortwave troughs.

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/700/

  8. Serious model question for TK or whoever knows the answer:

    All of these sophisticated computer models are nothing more than a set of computer programs (algorithms) that take all of the input weather data and crunch out the results.

    My question is: Who codes these programs?

    A. Are the Atmospheric Scientists doubly skilled and they actually code the programs?
    OR
    B. Do the Scientists collaborate with Expert coders (progammers) who take the Scientist’s input and translate that to computer code.

    Based on my experiences working with these Scientists, I’d say it is A.

    Curious to hear opinions.

    Thanks

    1. We have full sized candy bars awaiting our little trick or treaters this evening.
      It is a tradition we have had for many many years. πŸ˜€

        1. It’s not I, it’s my wife. IF it were up to me, I’d have bags of the miniatures and let them take a couple. She is very generous and has a big heart.

    1. Very interesting and thank you. I could get on my soap box here and will a little bit.

      I pulled this one paragraph out to highlight the main issue:

      But rather than address these shortages, in 2013 the National Weather Service was forced to put in place a hiring freeze and cut off funding for forecaster training and equipment maintenance, part of an 8.3 percent budget cut that came in the wake of the federal government’s budget sequestration. The National Weather Service now employs 288 fewer forecasters and technicians than it did when Sandy struck

      There is a certain segment of Congress that plain and simply does NOT regard this issue as important. This same segment does NOT believe in equal pay for woman NOR does it believe in any kind of minimum wage or decent standard of living for all working persons and think that global warming and/or climate change is a myth.

      Ok I’ll stop there, but you get the idea and know where I stand. πŸ˜€

      2. Thanks OS.

        That is the same paragraph that caught my eye. I almost copied it into my post, but decided to give everyone the chance to read the whole thing first and form an opinion.

    1. hmmmmm – Middleboro doesn’t seem to be an area close enough to Providence although it is south of here. And typically helicopters are easy to identify.

  13. OS. I heard one of the jets racing by at 7:30am- very loud!!! Thought it was weird. Nothing more to add

    1. Weather impacting my fantasy football decisions ….

      I have Brandon Lafell as a wide receiver, who has a higher predicted point total than a receiver I have on the bench.

      However, with this wind forecast, I’m worried about the impact on the passing game and thinking of going with the other receiver.

      Of course, I’m going to out-think myself into the wrong choice. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

        1. Thanks OS !! ….. because I am leaning in that direction due to the Brady factor of playing well in the wind.

    2. I was about to post that and got called into the Bosses office. Everything is good.

      Thanks Hadi.

      Still wondering IF it is overcooked and over-hyped. I guess we’ll find out
      soon enough. πŸ˜€

  15. the 10 am obs are a great illustration of the effect of the 54F ocean.

    While inland locations are in the low 40s with 40F or under dewpoints ….

    Logan, SE Mass and Cape Cod are all above 50F, with dewpoints 40F or higher.

  17. FIM
    Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 31 Oct 2014 – 06Z

    Total Precip

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014103106/130/totp_sfc_f084.png

    Impulse 1

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014103106/130/3hap_sfc_f042.png

    Impluse 2

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014103106/130/3hap_sfc_f060.png

    850mb temps for impulse 2

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014103106/130/temp_850_f060.png

    FIM surface temps depicted to be in the 30s for the entire event. No 40s.

    Interesting.

      1. 925 mb is around 800 meters or 2640 feet. So the freezing level would be somewhere between 1500 and 2500 feet, perhaps lower?
        Hard to tell. But this “could” do it.

          1. Eric Fisher @ericfisher Β· 1h 1 hour ago
            Still thinking that wet snow may start to mix in Saturday night/Sun am. Not accumulating enough to cause issues. Could be fun?

    2. You’re kidding. Who is he bashing and for what reason?

      They can’t tell him the precise conditions at 4:25 PM on Sunday?

      That part SHOULD be easy. It’s what happens from Midnight tonight to
      about 1PM on Sunday that’s not so easy. πŸ˜€

      1. A bit of the pot calling the kettle black I’d say….he shuts his mouth when he makes a mistake but opens widely when he wants to point fingers at others.

        And perhaps I am thinking of another game with rain but I seem to remember that the forecast was for it to stop around gametime. May be very wrong on that.

        1. Vicki, the original forecast called for the game to
          be played in a monsoon, however, conditions evolved and the forecast WAS changed in advance. Like TK says, folks tend to remember an OLD forecast and want to hold mets
          accountable for that. πŸ˜†

          1. Some people just don’t get that the atmosphere is volatile and conditions are constantly evolving.
            Forecasts are made with the best available information at the time. As new information is available it’s only natural that forecasts change.

            This latest event is a CLASSIC when it comes
            to information/forecasts changing.

            I don’t know how the public gets educated on this? Someone like BB should be smart enough to KNOW this. The general public? not so much. πŸ˜€

          2. That is exactly what I remember. But I also remember that in the early morning hours JR called for it to be over by game time. Does BB have the same problem confusing old game plans with new ones? Irresponsible remarks on his behalf IMHO

    3. If you read it, it wasn’t that bad. You can’t say he is really wrong or haven’t felt that way at one point.

  19. If BB only knew that his boss’s best friend was the founder of the oldest private weather company in the country………

  20. 12Z GFS appears to be warmer and moisture shifted back to the EAST more.

    0Z Saturday evening

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014103112&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=036

    12Z Sunday morning

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014103112&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=048

    Total snowfall

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014103112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

    Shifted more from Maine into New Brunswick

    Total Precip

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014103112&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=078

  21. This guys got big ones, you got too, that’s what I love about this once in a lifetime coach, he speaks his mind, he might have gone overboard, maybe. But there’s been times that 2 days out nobody knows or there’s a number of different solutions. It’s true they have a tough time forecasting around here at times. It forgot to say science is the unknown but he’s a football coach, he doesn’t care what we think, only the football team.

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/10/31/bill-belichick-wages-war-on-meteorologists/

      1. Maybe he should spend more time looking for perfect in those he adds to the team out of respect for Brady. All he has done is open the flood gate for people who already criticize meteorologists out of, dare I say, ignorance. It is beyond irresponsible IMHO.

  24. Not sure what this means:

    A limited selection of Parallel GFS products are available in real-time until the GFS gets officially upgraded in December.

    Looks like the GFS is being upgraded in December sometime.

    Not sure what Parallel GFS means, unless it is the “unofficial” upgraded GFS being
    run to test the new model?? Anyone know?

    1. I think, and I could be wrong, that the “parallel” GFS is the new, upgraded GFS which will be the only GFS come December. For now, they’re running the new and old version side by side. In other words, two totally different versions of the GFS, one of which will soon be “retired” and one that will be for the future.

      1. That’s the only thing that makes sense to me. I would agree with you. If so, Only the most subtle of differences that I can detect.

        Now that we think we know what it means, will have to watch a bit more closely. πŸ˜€

        Thank for your input. Much appreciated.

      2. I don’t get where they are obtaining their wind data?

        I’m currently digesting the Euro. Best I am seeing is a brief
        40 knots on the Cape. Immediate Boston area, including Foxboro I am only seeing about 15-20 knots. πŸ˜€ South Shore, immediate Coast to 35 knots.

        Do I dunno.

    1. Ooops, that didn’t work …

      Well, looking at sensitive mode and there appears to be echos on south coast.

  27. Love JR’s response to BB – he had it coming

    JR “Haha…..funny to see Coach Belichick taking shots at local meteorologists for “always being wrong”…….sadly Bill, we don’t have the luxury of stealing signs from Mother Nature…..”

    3. Lol bill doesn’t care what you, me, or jr thinks, many like him, many dislike him, he’s the best coach arguably to ever coach the game, and he has a ego like it, my father says he reminds him of Auerbach. You can call him cheaters, killers, or whatever rolls through his or hers head, he’s got the bling and the stats, he doesn’t care, just win πŸ™‚

      1. Doesn’t matter to me whether he likes what anyone else thinks and that is quite obvious. Sorry – that was anything but the sports ethic I grew up with. I never thought the end justifies the means.

        1. Either Bill himself and/or Mr. Kraft has/have NOT supplied him with enough skilled players to get the job done!!!! OS Translation: Kraft IS too CHEAP to pay for talent!! He seems to be satisfied with filling the seats, Making plenty of $$$ and keeping as much for himself and family as possible, While continually falling SHORT of the mark.

        2. BB isn’t going anywhere for at least 6 yrs, you will be rooting against the Patriots for a looonnnnggg time am πŸ™‚

  28. Interview between Bill Belichick (the METEOROLOGIST) and the media

    Media Question : Bill, last storm’s forecast didn’t go so well. We understand you may have relied too much on the GFS. Did you ?

    BB : Its onto the next storm.

    Media : Bill, it rained where you forecasted snow …. where did things break down in your forecast ?

    BB : Long, quiet pause …………………………………………………………………… We just have to forecast better. All phases, precipation …… wind ….. temperature.

    Media : Some are saying you may be demoted to the weekend shift, any comment ?

    BB : Its onto the next storm.

    Long, long pause …….

    BB : Anything else ??????

    Long pause …..

    BB walks off.

    1. Long, quiet pause ……………………………………………………………………
      You forgot Snort….snort….snort…..

    2. ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†
      πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†
      πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†
      πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜† πŸ˜†

  29. Best slug from Euro comes from impulse 1, but it is very warm.

    http://i.imgur.com/kniIq4B.png

    By the time impulse 2 comes along it is 32 at the surface in Boston and way cold
    at 850mb, however, at that time impulse 2 is OFF shore

    http://i.imgur.com/v2BwlUu.png

    There is much conflicting data out there.

    IF and I say a BIG IF the 2nd impulse comes close enough, it would be at that
    time that it could SNOW around these parts. Still bears watching. πŸ˜€

  33. 18Z NAM rolling in. 1st impulse, pretty decent slug of RAIN here. Temp in the 40s, NO SNOW.

    We shall see what happens with impulse #2

      1. Even though – still love the idea that the thought of snow was even a possibility, as slight as it was! πŸ™‚ It’s almost that time β›„

  35. So pleased the rain held off for the Trick-Or-Treaters!
    To all of you with little ones or you big ones still young at heart – hope you all have a wonderful time tonight! I love greeting and treating the young’uns dressed up in their too cute or scary costumes! Have a safe, fun Happy Halloween!!!

  37. 18Z GFS about the same as before. 2nd impulse primarily off shore. grazed by it.
    1st impulse warm and rainy

  38. 18Z CMC-RDPS a.k.a. GEM-REG / North America (mesh: 10 km) Fr En

    Pretty interesting as it brings #2 system close enough to mix and/or changeover near
    the end. πŸ˜€

        1. Wow. We are on a great little street but it has grown up as is just getting young again. We might have has a dozen.

        1. We did have candy. Every year we convince ourselves that we need to buy some candy (that we especially like), “just in case”.

      1. Funny but I was thinking comfy cool too. Doesn’t feel 46. Was just out in a light sweatshirt talking to neighbors etc

  43. Sounds as if everyone had a great Halloween. Well maybe not the kids in marshfield. I think a certain teacher who should remain nameless ate all of the candy

  44. What a display here this year maybe best ever. People taking video and picture of it. The luluby swing girl was a favorite. Waiting on word if we won the contest. Six air blowns , ghost girl, swinging talking pumpkin, swing girl lights wrapped around porch and that’s just outside. Full haunted house down base. Also one in back yard.

  46. went to a party tonight after band. played cards against humanity, poker, dancing stuff of the sort and yes costumes

  47. 93 trick or treaters tonight.

    Hmmm 0Z NAM went Bonkers!!!

    Both lows now get us with 2nd one colder. Hmmmm

  49. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Daylight Savings Time (DST) ends tonight. In what year did we stay on DST?
    A. 1968
    B. 1971
    C. 1973
    D. 1974

    Answer later today. Bonus points if you remember why? 

    1. I’b picking B only because its she I was born. And as to why, I’m going to take a pretty good guess at it had to do with money somehow. πŸ™‚

    3. Haven’t a clue and frankly DON’T remember it ever happening. That would
      be significant. IF it did, I agree with Vicki. Whatever year the energy crisis was
      when we were waiting in long lines at the gas stations. D.

  50. looking at the 6z’s. I might have a legit shot out here in the hills at even some accumulation. I’l believe it when I see it. It’s so early.

  56. Good morning, busy busy weekend!! Looks like lots of rain and raw conditions, widespread hard freeze everywhere Sunday night, then back to mild for next week. Everyone have a good day, and GO PATRIOTS!!

  58. Did anyone here about the bullet train going from dallas to Houston, it will travel at 165mph and will travel 300 miles in just an hr in a half. They start the project this spring, and will cost 12B.

  59. Hadi, 06GFS gives BOS .34 of liquid equivalent as snow tomorrow am…wonder if the models are underestimated the strength of impulse #2 as well. Maybe some surprises πŸ™‚

  60. I have looked at so much model data. Still inconsistencies at this late hour.

    Most impressive model is last evening’s 0Z FIM. IT nails us with both
    impulses with the 2nd one the coldest and yest COLD enough for snow both
    at the surface and 850MB.

    06Z runs of both NAM and GFS have BACKED off from what they had at 0Z.
    Don’t know it that is meaningful OR just that they were the 06Z runs.

    One last look at the 12Z runs before FULL Now Castings.

    Here is this morning’s take from our friends at NWS

    https://scontent-b-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/1381292_706521886108852_6292146304418848235_n.png?oh=e2b192418049a475f629616f6595fa74&oe=54DFFEE4

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10006339_706521876108853_9078676366526601702_n.png?oh=8cec5134a24d900342e7a2f313937366&oe=54DE977F&__gda__=1425316373_29d0b42e60f432096d3e568418798b99

    https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10308750_706521909442183_8599963177847754627_n.png?oh=9e8cf7d6e1a5fdf7e0cf4809535f235c&oe=54F2044B

    https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10308750_706521909442183_8599963177847754627_n.png?oh=9e8cf7d6e1a5fdf7e0cf4809535f235c&oe=54F2044B

  61. The focus should be on the wind potential with this system. Believe me, worst case scenario regarding snow is not going to make a big impact. Even if we got 1/4 inch melted precipitation falling as snow, it would be borderline snow falling through borderline air onto warm ground. A too warm boundary layer next to a much too warm ocean with wind at least partially off of it should prevent a worst-case scenario easily.

    Wind, on the other hand, may be damaging, with a couple potential periods of time for damaging gusts from late today/tonight favoring Boston southward and overnight into Sunday favoring any areas but especially coast/higher elevations.

  62. Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 01 Nov 2014 – 00Z

    1st impulse for this evening

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014110100/130/3hap_sfc_f024.png

    2nd tomorrow afternoon

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014110100/130/3hap_sfc_f042.png

    total precip

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014110100/130/totp_sfc_f084.png

    Finally, snow water equilavent

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014110100/130/weasd_sfc_f042.png

    Now there is an interesting map.
    Snow Water Equivalent

    Definition
    Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is a measurement of the amount of water contained in snow pack. It can be considered as the depth of water that would theoretically result if the whole snow pack instantaneously melts. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) is the product of snow depth and snow density. It can be presented in units of either kg/m2 or m:

    That tells me that where there is color on this map, there will be SNOW on the ground.
    and even down to Boston this has about 1 inch Snow Water Equivalent. Even
    at 5 to1 ratio that’s 5 inches of cement.

    Anyone care to comment on this? πŸ˜€

      1. Well , I know I could count on you for that. πŸ˜€

        You notice I was NOT making a prediction, just presenting
        some interesting model output.

        IF the 06Z runs are real, then the whole thing is less impactful than previous runs.

        I continue to watch

        1. I always know what you’re doing, OS. πŸ™‚

          You are the living version of the old difax map machine. (Yes it’s a compliment). That workhorse just kept cranking out the maps. Jammed up once in a while but otherwise very reliable. πŸ˜‰

  63. New blog later 10AM hour.
    First I’m going to freeze at a soccer field on the top of a hill watching my friend’s daughter’s last game of the season. πŸ™‚

  66. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

    I think the 2nd system ends up a bit more intense than the models are depicting.

    2 reasons ….

    A) on water vapor, the system at upper levels looks so impressive and everything seems to be falling into place to let this thing reach its max potential.

    B) still have +2 to +3C ocean anomolies right along its path and thus, above normal surface energy to add into this thing.

    I’m not suggesting the track to be further west or the precip to be further west ……. just that I think the system may end up even deeper than its progged to be.

    Concerned a bit about the wind here right along the immediate coastal plain.

    1. Agree with your analysis Tom.

      Good luck down there.

      No rain here yet.
      It’s abit windy but not bad at all.

      Temp 44.6 here.

      1. Thanks OS.

        The other 2 “surprises” (well, against what I was expecting) already this morning are ….

        The due northerly winds and the heavy rain down in NJ.

        1. Also a surprise this morning, isolated reports of 3-5″ of snow in the Columbia, SC area due to an extreme localized band of snow that set up in that area. A classic case of precipitation falling so hard that it is easily able to overcome warmth near the surface. Earliest snow on record for Columbia.

          2. WOW. Of all places. That would be significant mid winter. Thank you for that info

            Question. I know TK said limited snow but with the leaves on the trees and winds I would think even a little wet slush would add to damage. No?

            And finally. Rain started here about 45 minutes ago. No wind whatsoever. But has that almost gonna snow feel and sky

  67. This cold air going all the way down to Florida. Its amazing parts of South Carolina got an accumulating snow before any of us here in SNE.

  68. Interesting comment from NWS out of Grey ME
    MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE COASTAL STORM SITUATION WHICH IS
    NOT SURPRISING FOR A CLOSED LOW.

    1. Temperature has crept up to 44.8

      That’s pretty chilly. With 850MB temps below freezing, should we get into
      heavy precip, I could imagine that it may just be possible to pull down enough
      cold for mix and changeover?????

      We shall see and continue to monitor.

      at 10AM, Logan Temp 45 DP 40 Wind at 10 Degrees at 16 gusts to 22.
      Blue Hill Temp 42 DP 39 Wind at 20 Degrees at 13 gusts to 20.
      Worcester Temp 40 DP 34 Wind at 3 Degrees at 9

  70. Got to watch as were nowcasting any slight shift to the west or east which will make a difference. Regardless were not going to be miss out on the wind and I would not be surprised if there are some scattered power outages in SNE.

  72. Raining here at a good clip. So what’s the storm status all day and night ? Gets worse through the day. When does it move out.

    1. John, depending on model of choice rain socked in from now till
      tomorrow morning sometime. Some stretch it to early afternoon.

      Stay safe. Hope you have no wind damage.

  73. HOT OFF THE PRESS from MATT NOYES:

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 34s34 seconds ago
    High-resolution guidance coming on-board with a flip to snow tonight, even Southern New England (valid 11PM):

    And the surprise package is being wrapped. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    1. However, expect for a brief period, 850 temps remain cold.

      So, I dunno. As always conflicting changing information.

      One thing we know RAIN AND WIND.

      Will there be a flip to snow and if so, how much? That is big question.
      There is much debate about that. We’ll know soon enough.

      Since I want it, it mostly likely will NOT. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

  76. 44.2, responding to the rain falling. And it is raining decently, not really heavy, but
    it’s coming down.

  77. Hmm just looking at the BTV 4km WRF freezing levels.

    From Boston Swd starting aroun 8PM, freezing levels at 1200 feet and fall to 600 feet
    by 4AM. Interesting

    1. Everyone here says only good thing about power outages is I put heat on earlier and higher than normal to keep house warm just in case. We lost power for about three minutes this am. I’m hoping it means there is a weakness somewhere in the line πŸ˜€

      1. Vicki,

        If you have read any of my posts, I always say BullCrap to that stuff about ground too warm etc. Heavy snow will overcome almost anything. You can took to SC for proof. Wasn’t it 80 or nearly so the other day???? πŸ˜€ You think the groudn was cold when the storm started? πŸ˜†

  78. If it is not too cold on ground in SC, then I’m confused as to how it can be too cold here. I am sure there is an interaction I just don’t have the knowledge to see

    And friends flying from DC to Logan late pm. Is there a chance they will get in before worst of winds? Thanks for any input

    1. Its the way the north wind is going to work, its going to dry the air out, basically push the precip out of here as cold air filters in

  79. Good development combined with sharper digging than forecasted COULD make for an interesting night. This is not based upon model runs. Simply have a look at water vapor imagery. Second impulse seems to be getting its act together and could come closer to the coast. With 850 temps combined with heavy precip leading to evaporational cooling, it is appearing more likely that a changeover to a period of snow is prudent. Models have been all over the place so I have given little credence to any one of them. Unlike TK’s thinking, IMHO, parts of southern new england could wake up white tomorrow morning.

    1. Well hellooooooo stranger. Another good thing about snow or snow potential is that we have you back on board. How are you?

      1. Doing quite well Vicki. Thank you. I had a great Halloween with the kids last night. I hope you’ve been well.

      1. Hey John. The family is well. Kids had a blast last night. How have you been. Could get interesting in these parts tonight. I think there are some things that the models are not picking up on.

        1. All is well arod. Really nice that you posted as you bring so much to this blog and we all thank you for that. Yup tonight should be crazy . A couple of weeks ago the wind was intense down here during that last storm. Last night was fun here and we win first place for best decorated house $50 gift card to lowes. All a memory now as we were out there after 11 lastnight taking it all down before the rain.

    3. Welcome back to WHW Arod. Nice to see you here. And I agree with
      your assessment totally. Nice job.

      I was just going to post something more by Matt Noyes. In fact here it is:

      Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
      16 mins Β·
      Just a reminder – please don’t be surprised if you see snow falling…and sticking…even into Southern New England tonight, and heavy snow with a full-on winter storm in Maine! Full details in this morning’s blog post: http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2014/11/saturday-morning-strong-and-cold-storm-ready-to-impact-new-england-with-snow-rain-wind-waves.html

        1. Indeed. Enjoy and looking forward to it. Really nice to see you here. We all missed you. I always enjoy your fresh
          look on conditions and your analysis. It’s not always black and white or text book. Generally, we are dealing with shades of gray. πŸ˜€

  80. Greetings alisonarod and welcome back for your next “posting season”. πŸ˜‰ As always, looking forward to your analysis and opinion.

    Update will be slightly delayed. Soccer game ran long (that ref was gonna play by the book and finish it off in full time despite the fact Woburn was ahead of Wakefield 5-0, which was also the final). The cold and bluster of November is clearly evident on this first day of the month.

    Anyway, got back late, barely enough time to inhale a cup of coffee and then take my mom on an errand. After that I will be updating the blog and then mid afternoon heading toward the South Shore for the late afternoon/evening in and around Plymouth MA. I’ll wave as I go by to those that live down there. πŸ˜‰

  81. BTW if at all possible I’d like to try to swing one more get-together, this month if possible. Could you possibly make it to one, arod?

    1. Thanks you TK for your warm greetings. I’m happy to be a part of this wonderful community. I would love to get together. I’ve always wanted to and never discounted it. My wife and I work opposite schedules as we have two young children. Therefore there have been previous challenges with joining you guys. I am hoping to at some point.

  82. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 3m3 minutes ago
    Oct climate summaries are out! Monthly average temp depatures from normal: BOS +2.4Β° / BDL +3.5Β° / PVD +2.5Β° / ORH +2.2Β°

    1. As we can clearly see, even steady rain is bringing those temps down with ease and when it lets up, temperatures creep up again. Heavier precip should move in later today and overnight. Thus, that combined with lack of daytime heating could prove for an interesting night in SNE.

      1. From NWS just a moment ago:

        NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 10s10 seconds ago
        [1140a] Confident storm will end as snow late tonight into early Sunday morn; 12z guidance wobbling w/ forcing & heaviest rain axis

    1. Hadi, I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been around a LONG TIME and I have seen it over and over again. The heavy snow OVERCOMES the “warm” ground.
      I can’t tell you how many times the TV mets would say NO ACCUMULATION
      on the roads as they are “TOO WARM”! I tell my wife BULLSHIT and sure
      enough, the roads get covered!!! Over and over and over again. BULLSHIT!!

      1. With no expertise but having seen it accumulate when it technically should not I agree with you both. And even if the ground were to melt some, it seems the leaves in the trees would be very weighted.

        1. With the leaves on the tree we’d have to watch out
          for wet snow accumulation as it could bring down
          branches. Look back to the May snow in 1975?
          It looked like a tornado went through so many trees and branches were down.

          1. Or the Halloween snow a couple years ago. All we heard were branches breaking. Same with March 28 (I think) 1984. Sap had started to run. A lot of tree damage and power out with both

  88. That is true.
    I saw that with the October Noreaster three years ago. If snow comes down heavy enough it will accumulate and stick even if the surface is warm.

  89. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
    The storm moving into New England has produced the earliest recorded snow in history for Columbia, SC

    2. Keene, NH … If the ob is to be believed is 41F, with a dewpoint of 29F.

      I think they are elevated, I just dont know if precip of any meaning gets that far northwest.

  94. Eric Fisher poo poos GFS snow map (TK gave him a call. :lol:)

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 14m14 minutes ago Boston, MA
    Something is no bueno with GFS snow algorithm. This is why snow maps can be a problem (this is NOT going happen)

  95. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    [1230p] Already seeing a 2 ft surge at the tide gauge in #Boston; evaluating coastal flood headlines

  99. Lmao I see fisher has finally have up , I’m sorry that guy is a boom, with his tweets alone he would have the average human worrying about a rainstorm, no way!! πŸ™‚

    1. I will have to totally disagree. You are forgetting first and foremost that management drives a good part of his posts. But he also explains in great deal the pros and cons. Far better than any met I’ve seen. He truly tries to educate the public.

      1. I agree that he’s good in explanations etc etc BUT I can already tell he has a snow bias and has been wrong in the end, just our take πŸ™‚

  103. Eric Fisher responding to a question on BZ blog. I hope this happens.
    I do think we’ll have an active coastal storm pattern this late autumn/winter. Very high SSTs = juice to help them grow. Plus should be some good cold shots heading into CONUS with near record high Arctic N.H. snowpack right now.

  104. 1) It’s going to be colder early on because there was still enough dry air at low and some mid levels to cause cooling to occur. This is BEFORE the wind gets going (see #2).
    2) Once the wind gets going, a good portion of the fetch is coming across relatively warm water. This is going to warm the surface and boundary layer and make it more difficult to just chill it back off from precipitation falling (see #3).
    3) The snow forecast depends very heavily (pun intended) on the intensity of precipitation. The first batch will be gone by late evening. The second batch even if it works far enough west is going to be brief, and the bulk of that is likely to stay over Cape Cod and the fishes just east of Boston.

    Impossible to get significant (for early November) accumulation? No, not impossible. Likely? No. Not likely.

    Watch out buying models full on, they miss small details that we NEED to take into account here.

    And yes, the warm ground does play a role quite often, sometimes more than other times. Even if heavy snow “overwhelms” warm ground, it isn’t going to fall there and just stay there. Given a relatively short time after the intensity lets up or precipitation ends, it would be vanishing rather quickly. After many years of observing this, it’s certainly the case much of the time, with particular exceptions.

    2. Thanks TK. What allows snow to accumulate in SC. I don’t know how their ground temp compares to ours but I would think it has to be warmer. I know Columbia is inland so is not affected by winds warming off ocean.

      1. Of course it is/was warmer. It just snowed hard and cooled it down. When this happens, it can start to melt from the bottom up, but it still accumulated.

        1. Thanks OS. Often it seems when there is a warmer surface that the driving is the very worst. It melts, freezes and then there is a nasty layer of slush ice

  105. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 18m18 minutes ago
    [110p] Latest reports of N / NW wind gusts 35-40 mph across the waters & coastal communities.

  106. visible satellite

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 18m18 minutes ago
    [110p] Latest reports of N / NW wind gusts 35-40 mph across the waters & coastal communities.

  108. Latest HRRR has precip from #1 winding down around 6Z tomorrow.

    Doesn’t go out far enough to reveal much about #2.

      1. Although 250MB winds are straight South to North. Just don’t know how fast Eastward that whole wind field is moving.

  109. New blog posted!
    I’ll be away from my keys for much of the remainder of day/evening, checking in at times via mobile. Will try to get an update in by early tomorrow.

  110. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 11m11 minutes ago
    [140p] Wind gusts & wave heights increasing at buoy 44013 (MA Bay). 2.25 ft surge at #Boston tide gauge.

    1. This was the caption from NWS on that satellite

      NWS Boston retweeted
      NWS WPC ‏@NWSWPC 25m25 minutes ago
      The developing #winterstorm for New England can be seen here on satellite offshore of the Carolinas

      Interesting that they used the term WinterStorm.

  113. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Daylight Savings Time (DST) ends tonight. In what year did we stay on DST?
    A. 1968
    B. 1971
    C. 1973
    D. 1974

    I know that AccuWeather gave the answer as C, but I swear it is D, and reason was to help out with the oil crisis.

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