The Week Ahead

176 Comments

8:43PM

Now that the double-barrel weekend storm is pretty much history and behaved pretty much as expected, it’s time to look ahead at the next 7 days.

High pressure builds in Monday, but still has to push against the departing second storm, so it will be windy and cool despite lots of sunshine. By Tuesday, high pressure is pushing offshore and a southwesterly flow will warm it up but with the warmer air coming in at all levels there will be some cloudiness. The warmer southwesterly air flow will continue Wednesday as a cold front approaches but washes out, resulting in a day that sees just a mix of sun and clouds but probably an absentee shower threat or just a few sprinkles and light showers that wander in by late in the day or at night. Previously, I was a little more optimistic about Thursday and Friday, thinking we’d get a stronger cold front through later Thursday and then turn windy/cool but drier on Friday. At this time it appears that system may be a little more amplified, that is, the trough will dig a little more to the south as it moves to the east, allowing a more significant low pressure area to develop and move more slowly. So for now will forecast a turn to wet weather Thursday continuing into Friday. By Saturday, this storm will be on its way into eastern Canada leaving the first part of the weekend windy and chilly but fair. Looking ahead to Sunday, weak high pressure should hold fair weather in, but confidence is low as we will continue to be in a somewhat volatile pattern and there have been some signals for stormy weather by early the following week. Will keep an eye on this.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 30 Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting up to 40 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers late. Low 53. High 67.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Low 48. High 61.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 46. High 56.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Low 36. High 49.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 51.

176 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  5. This is NOT my prediction, just the average snowfall for Logan:

    Average Logan snowfall = 43.8″

    Remember: Deadline is Sunday November 16. 🙂

  6. Thanks TK as always!

    TK – Now that it appears that there will be some wet periods in the short and medium range, does this mean that there could be some serious dents in the drought for the long term after all?

    1. Any time we can get some meaningful precipitation that doesn’t fall so quickly that most of it runs off, we will be reducing the deficit. That said, southeastern MA is still in a significant deficit as they did not get as much rain from recent storms as some other areas. Long term minor to moderate drought goes on here. We’ll see if it eases up after a couple upcoming storm threats.

  10. It’s a cold morning in the city working outside. Winter coat and gloves on. If I had a ski cap here that would be on as well. This sucks.

  11. Good morning and thanks TK. Not as cold this morning as I expected. I awoke to 34. 😀

    2 more Bombs? Of course still TOO WARM, I’m sure. 😀

    Nice storm, although the wind up this way fell way short of expectations, even if
    it did Roar down the Cape, just not here.

    The snow was a nice Welcome to the Winter season.
    Yesterday while I was driving at the height of the strongest burst of snow I was on
    Bellevue Hill, which is the highest natural point in the city of Boston and Suffolk County. It rises to a height of 330 feet (101m) above sea level.

    I am not kidding around. There was a slushy accumulation on Washington Street. I could readily see it and had it snowed at that rate for a bit longer, the road would
    have been covered. 😀

    And finally, Phenomenal win by the Pat’s!! They really looked good. They’re coming around and getting whipped into shape.

  12. Beautiful day with absolutely clear sky and fall feel. I finally turned the heat on for a few minutes (30) last night and then again this morning. I always feel I have accomplished something when I make it to November 🙂

    1. You must have superior insulation 🙂 Once the house got down to 59 a couple weeks ago at night the heat went on.

      2. No, we really need to insulate. I just don’t mind the cold. If it were just me, I would not have turned it on yet.

  13. From Brady:

    Rob Gronkowski had a huge game, catching nine passes for 105 yards and a touchdown. He made an incredible one-handed grab at the 1-yard line that Brady called “one of the greatest catches I’ve seen, without a doubt.”

    http://i.imgur.com/ktMcLc9.png

    1. We all let out a roar when we saw that pass. Leave it to Brady to give others the credit. Someone has to get the ball there for the receiver to catch 🙂

  14. OS, i agree with your assessment of the winds away from the immediate coast, they were not nearly as strong as they were during the last nor’easter. The winds just didn’t penetrate as far inland. Still a lot of trees with almost full leaves around here.

  15. Oh, I forgot.

    On the way in this morning, I saw the Channel 4 AccuWeather Modile Van on Tremont Street in Roxbury. I have No idea WHY they would set up there????

    Anyone?

  16. US National Weather Service Boston MA
    5 mins ·
    Interesting Weather Fact: Tallahassee, Florida had a low of 30 this am. The lowest temp Boston has seen so far this fall is 34.

    1. Tom says:

      November 1, 2014 at 11:44 PM

      http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/20W/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

      The next far western Pacific monster.

      I think I saw a track that sends it just east of Japan and northeast from there, probably towards western Alaska as a strong extratropical storm.

      That sometimes later translates to a central or eastern US trof.

      So, my long range special guess is a mid November cold plunge into the central, maybe eastern US.

      Hmmmm ….. where have I heard Eric’s first idea before ???? Hee hee hee hee

    1. Very. A nice comment just made on 7 (which I’m listening to in background) was that often people make the comment that Mayor Menino was just like us. He said that is in a way is giving a compliment to “us” that we have trouble living up to. He was a selfless man and many of the “us” are not. I worded that badly but hope it is clear what he meant.

  21. WBZ Weather
    8 mins ·
    Long range looking colder in the East, warmer in the West…we may be in for a chilly November in Boston

  23. To have a former president and a current VP here says a lot about Menino and the impact he had on our great city.

  24. Good morning, Mondays r always better when the red white and blue win, the week ahead looks mild, let’s keep it going into next week, that’ll bring us into mid nov, 3 weeks of work left, good day everyone 🙂 keep the miserable bad weather away 🙂

    2. I won’t get political hadi cause here is not the place. There is a reason for that because people view him as the worst sitting president ever and I agree:

  27. Bill Weld and Warren and Lynch and Big Papi and I believe I heard Bill Russell.

    Is Romney there? I’d be surprised if he is not.

  29. The extra-tropical system from the Pacific possibly affecting the pattern going into November in the eastern US is just another example of why we should all be very cautious of long-range forecasting, especially into the winter months. Things like that cannot be predicted and can have a profound impact on the pattern for weeks.

    1. Always in the forefront of things I watch for. Learned this working in the private sector from some very experienced forecasters.

    1. BTW I love cold Novembers. Not sure we end up colder than normal but certainly not super warm the next 2 weeks.

    1. Thats cuz the month of Nov usually features very few sunny days. Temps today about 5 degrees below average

  32. I missed the mayor’s procession as I had to attend a meeting. Figures.
    Other staff grabbed some photos, so I could see.

  34. AccuWeather.com
    5 mins ·
    Toward the middle of the month, the weather pattern may bring a longer-lasting blast of cold air that can take a small bite out of the heating season budget.

    1. Great – I just locked in my oil prices and didn’t add any extra gallons to what we used last year. My family will thank you when I turn heat off again today 😉

  35. From the channel 4 weather blog:

    There are many factors in alignment to generate a rough season ahead. The WBZ AccuWeather Team will elaborate later this month as we present our winter outlook. Presently, I will just say that the potential exists for a similar or even more harsh winter than last season but there will be some differences.

    I don’t know whether this was written by Barry or Danielle nor do I know whose
    thinking it is. It says the weather team, so I “assume” much of the influence is
    from Eric.

    Where is Barry on this? I thought he was in Camp TK?

      1. Really seems to be split 50/50 and there are REALLY FINE
        METS in each camp. Insanely difficult to figure out which is which.

        Honestly, I am leaning towards Camp Eric. We shall see.

        1. You can make a valid argument for either camp right now. I’m still not solid on one side, just have been leaning. Final word for me is just under 2 weeks away.

          1. Fair enough. I have a sneaky feeling that
            you are about to switch camps. I hear Camp
            Snowy is having a sale and a real deal on rates for this Winter. 😀

  36. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 18m18 minutes ago
    They are just lined up one after another. Energy diving into SE U.S., turns up the coast, repeat.

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 24m24 minutes ago
    Remember when we couldn’t buy a raindrop? Looks like another good soaker coming late Thursday, then another late Sun/Mon

  38. Harvey is the best and tk and him always usually on the
    Same page. I could care less what it does as I just want it to start so I can look forward to it ending. I hate winter with a passion.

  39. I think the wise one is TK who is waiting and studying and then will make a call.

    Either way it is fun to read the opinions. In the end it will be what it will be.

  40. Does anyone have any suggestions for where to buy decorative Birch Logs? I need three and can’t find them anywhere. On Amazon it costs as much to ship as buy.

    1. Yes. Grab a saw. Walk into the Woods until you find a Birch Tree. Take saw and cut as necessary. There you go. 😀

        1. In all seriousness though, those things cost a lot. Home Depot/Lowes has some but at over $200. I’d try XMass Tree Shop or even Michaels/Jo Ann’s

          1. Sorry – took me a bit of time to stop laughing. I can picture a 65 year old woman walking around Framingham with a chain saw and wonder what the reaction might be. Are you allowed to just cut birch??

            I tried Michael’s this morning and called some nurseries. Nothing. Three on Amazon with shipping is $40….that’s nuts. I’m seeing a plan B in my future.

            1. You could always take a regular log and paint it white with the black birch spots. Plenty of examples on Pinterest and other sites

  41. Brett Anderson tweet

    @BrettAWX: Agree with fellow meteorologist Elliot Abrams that weather pattern will be quiet turbulent in east. N_Amer the next 10 days. Sign of winter?

  42. There are things going on in the atmosphere that neither camp could have completely anticipated. The jury is deliberating heavily.

  43. The trees are almost if not complete bare where I am and I’ll be done picking up the leaves soon. As I always say when Im done picking up the leaves and trees are bare bring on the snow!

    1. Complete opposite here JJ, at least away from the coast. I’d say about 50-60% still full leaves even after the nor’easter 2 weeks ago

        1. Yup, the only ones bare are the sugar maples.
          Norway maples and oaks still have most of their leaves.

        2. Vicki, how do your maples look that got eaten by the green worms? Ours turned a nasty pale yellow with black spots and dropped early and much less leaves/smaller leaves. I hope next year i can prevent it

  44. I think we’re in for a very active pattern here in the Northeast for the next 2-3 weeks. Not necessarily snow but several storm threats and likely colder than normal overall. I would agree with TK though that this doesn’t necessarily mean anything for winter. A lot of the coming cold and storm activity will be caused by the recurving West Pacific typhoon; those become much less of a factor in Dec-Mar as they just don’t happen as often. Overall though it appears more mets are leaning towards the snowier than normal camp for the winter. I think Boston probably comes in right about average. Split the difference between the two camps 🙂

  45. That is what I am doing with regards to snowfall and temperatures for the winter. I am thinking snowfall coming in slightly below normal and temps will be slightly above normal.

  46. Although I did manage to set my clocks back, I totally forgot that the models
    are now available an hour earlier. 😀

  47. Storms lining up over the next 10 days, currently ALL appear to be a combination
    of Eastern Lakes Cutters and Inside runners with NOTHING resembling a coastal.
    Although, at least one is depicted as having redeveloped in the Gulf of main.

  48. One thing i can say is that I think the merrimack valley gets screwed over this winter season. Starting to think that the storms will be to far east for areas outside of 128 to 495 get good snows, or the low will be to close to right over us to lake cutter to make it to warm. right now i agree with Wx with average season in both temperatures ,precipitation a tad above average, and snowfall around average but thats just early, my full prediction Later in the month… When is the date to put the logan snowfall?

  49. Not taking anything away from the Pats huge win last night, and it was awesome to watch, but let’s do it in the playoffs. I no longer get excited for a big regular season game bc the Pats are an annual playoff lock. Let’s see how they play when the games really matter. LAST NIGHT, the Pats were the better team. We’ll see in January. The Pats beat Denver in the reg season last year too. The last few years the Pats have not shown up in the big playoff games against the toughest teams. Sure, injuries happen as they did last year, but if BB is building his team conservatively and prepared for the future as he says he is, than in theory they should have enough depth to overcome those injuries.

    1. On the contrary, I am encouraged that their play WILL now translate
      to the post-season. The addition of Revis and Browner, tightening up
      the line play and the return of the Gronk to form is exactly what they needed.
      Not to mention the emergence of LaFell.

      Just my thoughts. 😀

      1. Just to clarify, the way they played last night and they way they have been playing for the past 4 weeks is encouraging and makes me feel better going into a late January game with one of the other top teams in the AFC, but im still nervous

        1. Of course you are nervous as they have had history of be a schizophrenic team. Schizophrenia is a mental disorder that makes it hard to Tell the difference between what is real and not real.

          I understand that. I for one, am very encouraged and look forward to the rest of the games and hopefully the playoffs.

        3. But no team can always win. Playoffs, Super Bowl or win or lose regular season I love them and enjoy watching them.

    2. Your prediction before the season started was that they would be a suprise bust, how can u not be excited then? Even if they do win in the playoffs I still think you will be a Patriothater. 🙂

      1. Still trying to hold on to my prediction i guess, lol. I dont dislike the team, i think a lot of my criticism has to do with the way they run their organization and i wish they would realize they need to be more aggressive in going for a super bowl now instead of trying to be just an annual contender.

          1. Btw, did you hear Steve Young today BLASTING
            the Patriots for NOT giving Tom Brady weapons.

            Awesome

          1. Dynasty to me involves championships …. So, I agree that had a “dynasty” from 2001 – 2004.

            What they’ve had does deserve its own classification because very few teams are able to have such a high win percentage and be a championship contender for SO long.

            I dont know what to call the overall last 14 years, but its been amazing.

            1. I believe there was a stat mentioned yesterday that Brady has the HIGHEST winning percentage of any QB in NFL history. In NFL History! Think about that for a moment. That has to count for something.

            2. Lol amazing? No team ever has won like the Patriots have in last 20yrs, 7 superbowls, 3 championships, 10 AFC championships, a gazillion playoff appearances, I mean this kind of success is amazing with a capital A.

              On a side note can someone tell welker to stop playing, he looks like an old man old there and is one big hit from being a vegetable, he has been warned

              1. Charlie we so agree with you re welker. Even when they showed him on the sidelines yesterday after his hit, the look in his eyes was scary.

        2. Tell buffalo that, there were a gazillion signs people had saying the patriot dynasty is dieing this year, guess what? Not happening 🙂

    4. I need to see how they fare in next 5 games ….

      @ Indy, Detroit, @Green Bay, @San Diego, Miami ….. Yeeeesh !!

      Even 3-2, the Pats would have 4 losses, which may not get them a bye, especially if one of the head to head losses is with Indy.

      I think everything OS mentions above makes them better than last year’s team. How last year’s team made it to the AFC championship game, I still dont know. So, I think they are better this year, but may not get as far if they are the 3 seed in the playoffs.

      1. In some sense, despite 5 in a row, Indy is a must win for playoff seedings.

        Perhaps Giants can help out tonight ……..

        1. and and then the giants loose every single every game. make it to the playoffs and superbowl rematch and we finally get the superbowl win 😛

          1. I remember rooting so hard for Tom Coughlin when he was head coach at BC. He went into South Bend Indiana and beat Notre Dame when they were #1, which deprived them of a chance at a National Title. This was back in the early-mid 90s. I never could have imagined then how much heartache he would end up causing Patriot nation.

            1. Remember it well. Wasn’t it a last minute
              field goal by BC? Awesome awesome! awesome!

              My Daughter graduated from BC. 😀

      2. Tom,

        I honestly think that the team may surprise you during this
        stretch. They could WIN them all!! They certainly NEED to win
        most of them as Denver probably won’t lose again or at most once.

        IF we have to go to denver, we could easily lose. Don’t want to go there!

        1. That would be great, here’s hoping !

          I think the Green Bay game is Thanksgiving day 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

          2. and will be the toughest i think we could loose up to 2 more games and green bay is possibly one of them if not the only one the other is against the colts

      3. Here is my take:

        Indy = WIN
        Detroit = WIN
        Green Bay = win (small letters because this is the potential loss)
        San Diego = WIN
        Miami = WIN (NO WAY they beat us twice!!!!)

        1. @Indy = Loss (both teams coming off byes, Andrew Luck, its on the road)

          Detroit = Win (this game frightens me with their defensive front and I need to know if Calvin Johnson is back)

          @ Green Bay = Loss (I think Lambeau Field is what Gillette is to the Pats, they simply dont lose there)

          @ San Diego = Win

          Miami = Win

  51. if the afc championship goes any where besides denver everyone has a shot to going to the superbowl if its at denver all bets are off and denver goes on to the superbowl hopefully to loose it again 😉

  53. By Meteorological Autumn Standards, it is 63/90 of the way through Autumn, or 70%.

    By Astronomical Autumn Standards, it is 41/90 of the way through Autumn, or about 46%.

    In New England, I’ve always thought consistent, warm summer weather sets in right around the summer solstice. I feel the same way about winter, that consistent cold weather with snow opportunities set in around the solstice.

    So, if cold or snow threats dont happen again for some time, I think its ok 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. I agree but by early March you can usually feel spring just bc of the sun angle 🙂

      The shortest days have begun and last till early Feb 🙂

  54. Tweet From Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan WVIT Tv in CT
    Excited about the Euro Weeklies tonight. All signs pointing toward a chilly/stormy next few weeks so far

    Another Tweet From John Bagioni of FaxAlertWeather
    Quite a few dominos starting to fall into place for a pretty impressive winter pattern this year; storm trends are impressive!

  58. The Patriots had there run winning three super bowls in four season’s just like my Cowboys did in the early to mid 90s.
    The only professional sports team right now that could say they have a dynasty going is the San Francisco Giants winning 3 championships in 5 years.

  59. Arguing sports is pretty much like arguing politics. 😛

    I think Martha Coakley is an idiot, but I’m not a republican (nor am I a democrat – don’t like either). It’s not worth arguing the point with someone who happens to like her. Voters will decide who to put in. 😀

    The label of dynasty for a sports team can be argued too. What it comes down to is just stats – pure numbers.

    A snow event is a snow event. One might drop 0.5 inch. One might drop 3 feet. They are going to do that no matter what you call them.

    I wonder how dust storms feel when we call them haboobs. 😛

    1. Not that I want to discuss politics here, but I really hope those TV ads end first thing tomorrow morning. We have been inundated with them since the July 4th holiday weekend.

      1. My question is why do we have to watch them from NH too? If anyone thinks MA ads are brutal, I think we have been proven wrong. I can’t wait until they are over

  60. Hadi they have dominated since 01, as long as Bellicheck and Brady r here it’s a dynasty and that’s how it will be remembered like that 10 or 20 yrs from now, when Grappololo comes in it will start another dynasty era lol 🙂

    1. hadi i disagree with that. they had rules back then as well, Bill and Brady has had the best winning percentage, most playoff wins, most superbowl apperances. I do not see what stats your looking at but im pretty sure Bill and brady edges them expecially if or when brady gets that 4 ring. Then there will be no doubt who is the best qb in the nfl history. 😉

        1. the rules are rules, though offenses could not complain about the rules back then so why should defense complain now? It has really nothing to do with it anway. If i was a coach i would pick brady over any other qb past and present

  63. Joe Lundberg says very cold airmass arrives second half of next week and that winter may very well start sooner rather than later.

    TK – Do you agree with at least the first part of the statement above?

    2. First part somewhat agree, but “very cold” is a matter of perception. Winter begins in 7 weeks. Winter weather, that will depend on the pattern.

      I can pretty much guarantee that we’re not going to be in the same weather pattern the entire Winter.

  64. My turn. The Patriots are of course a perennial powerhouse, but I believe they have made many personnel mistakes. Passing on Clay Matthews years ago or losing Welker and Woodhead in the same year or trading Mankins or trying to rehabilitate misfits like Ocho or Fat Albert … have led to much head scratching (me included). The truth for me is that they are a very good team, but because of money, hubris, personal grudges or whatever, they have failed to be even greater than they are. They have had so many chances to be so much stronger on O and D. I can never get away from the feeling they are just a notch below where they should be.

    There are many teams who do much worse. IMHO the Jets’ GM, Idzik, would be lucky if he could figure out what city the Draft is in. Fortunately the Pats, comparatively speaking, do much better, but winning conferences, divisions and SBs takes more than hoping we can somehow pull a rabbit out of a hat just one more time. We will need some luck this year.

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