7:34AM
No big changes this update. Cold front swings through today with lots of clouds but no rain. Front comes to a halt just to the southeast then comes back as low pressure moves along it Thursday through early Friday. This low should pass over or just west of southeastern New England by first thing Friday. A rain event results, and some heavy rain may fall Thursday evening. By late Friday, drying, windy, cooler weather is coming back and will lead to a nice Saturday as high pressure dominates. But things are moving right along and the next system brings a rain showers threat later Sunday (still some uncertainty on the overall impact of this system). This should be out of here by early next week with fair and seasonable weather at that time.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing midday and afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 48. High 56.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 48.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 37. High 53.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 49.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 36. High 53.
thanks!
Thanks tk.
Thank you
Thanks tk 🙂
Tk forecast for Poplar Bluff Thanksgiving?
Check back on that on several days 🙂
Thanks TK!
2M Temperature anomolies for various time periods:
oZ run of: CFS (Climate Forecast System); 1.0°×1.0° forecast grid
6-10 days
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014110500/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_2.png
16-20
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014110500/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_4.png
20-25
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2014110500/cfs-avg_T2ma5d_us_5.png
Sorry 11-15 was missing.
In the 20-25 day chart, NOTICE the HUGE area
in Canada with 4-6 C temperature anomoly?
That’s about 7-10 Degrees F.
That does NOT bode well for the start of December if you like cold and snow.
That’s assuming those warm temps reach the east coast
If they are up there, how are we going to stay cold? 😀
Mean eastern trough and our air masses coming from the north?
It is a concern though, especially if it stays so warm in that area preventing any kind of substantial snowpack to develop
Yup, it is a concern. Of course the long range forecast here “could” be wrong.
I doubt it though.
This must be what TK was alluding to regarding warm up long range and a delay of real Winter weather.
Indeed it is. 🙂
Is this real of photoshopped?
http://www.citylab.com/weather/2014/11/one-wisconsin-city-gets-visited-by-a-fleet-of-hole-punch-clouds/382388/
I saw this yesterday in a tweat from Jim Cantore, thus it makes me think
that it is real. I believe he termed it Hole Punch Cloud.
Here is a link to a bunch of images for these cloud types. they come in varying shapes and forms, including the one you posted.
https://www.google.com/search?q=images+for+hole+punch+cloud&biw=1680&bih=949&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=sUZaVJnHB_WKsQTCyIHoBA&ved=0CB0QsAQ
It seemed to be real but I never know. It is very cool. I would LOVE to actually witness something like that. Thanks for the link. Off to look at it
Very cool pics, OS – looks like heaven’s gate 🙂
😀
Real. It’s a fall streak hole. Not all that uncommon but this is quite a pronounced example of one.
Courtesy of WSI
EPO (eastern pacific oscillation)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1sHP5bIgAA2Z6W.png
The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is the major steering component of the jet-stream (upper-air flow) over the eastern Pacific. When a High pressure anomaly center intensifies over the Gulf of Alaska, blocking the jet-stream flow over the eastern Pacific… the EPO is in a Negative Phase or North Centered.
When a pronounced Pacific jet-stream drives the westerlies, associated with an intensifying High pressure anomaly center over the southeast Pacific… the
EPO is in a Positive Phase or South Centered. The EPO significantly influences the 500-millibar Height Pattern over North America, and is also a major steering mechanism of the Pacific-North American (PNA) Pattern &
Arctic Oscillation (AO).
From Dave Epstein:
Dave Epstein @growingwisdom 2h2 hours ago
Northern hemisphere snow cover has gone from one of the lowest on record this spring to one of the highest this fall.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1rzVY9IIAABw5w.png
A video from the NY NWS office showing how different types of precipitation form:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aszPV9uKeQ
Simple, simple stuff. 😀 I probably should NOT have posted it. 😀
These are great posts.
Thanks os 🙂
With ocean temps ranging from 53 degrees Boston, up to 56 degrees off capecod, are these average?
Somewhat above.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif
Its very interesting to me the highest anomalies are bordering around all of North America
That “real cold shot” next week is looking less and less impressive with time.
It does, doesn’t it.
Kind of reminds me of that Winter that wasn’t in 2011-2012 where
the COLD is coming, the COLD is coming, the COLD is coming
AND it NEVER CAME!!!
Still seeing tendencies on the medium range to try to retrograde the trough toward western or west central North America with time. In reality this will probably happen later than the models say (especially the GFS which tends to “rush things”).
So far though I’m not seeing anything that resembles a long-lasting pattern that carries into Winter. Still watching…
Don’t remind me of the winter of 11-12.
From NWS Taunton, a direct quote from their Saturday night through Sunday night forecast…
“Mostly cloudy. A chance of. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs around 50.”
I really wish they’d clue us in on what exactly there is a chance of. 😛
Must mean a chance of weather! What else could it be?
😀
From WSI
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy 39m39 minutes ago
A whopping 54% of ECMWF ensemble members (new clustering algorithm) keeps the cold theme o/ the East in 11-15day fcst
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1tM-LqIAAANIif.png
I agree with that.
New blog posted!