Assorted Weathers

162 Comments

5:15PM

Weather changes fairly frequently when the jet stream is nearby and this will be the case over the next several days. First, our mild spell of Tuesday and Wednesday is history as a cold front slides through the region. There has been no low level moisture for this front to work with so we’ve just had a lot of high cloudiness blotting out the sun at times Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A sharp clearing line which has been evident in the northwestern sky as seen from eastern MA and nearby areas during Wednesday afternoon will attempt to pass but then move back to the north. This will be because of a low pressure area riding up the front as it aligns itself with the jet stream, leading to a spell of wet weather Thursday afternoon to early Friday. Low pressure will likely pass right over southeastern New England by early Friday. Ahead of it the wind will turn more to the southeast and it will not be as mild on Thursday. Behind it, a stronger, gusty northwesterly wind flow will usher in drier air during Friday, but some cloudiness will likely hang around, including the threat of a shower.

Once we get to the weekend, it looks like the best day will be Saturday as high pressure will be in control. But a couple disturbances will approach Saturday night, one from the Great Lakes, another coming out of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. It doesn’t look like these 2 areas will get together until they are beyond New England, so expect a minor impact from this system, in the form of clouds and rain showers, probably during the first half of Sunday.

Early next week, expect some cloudiness from a warm front Monday, a mild day ahead of a cold front Tuesday, and a possible unsettled day Wednesday as the front may be slow to clear the region. Colder air is also likely to filter in during Wednesday, but does not look like it will come in as a powerful blast at this time. Something to monitor in the days ahead.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing tries to push in from the NW then clouds push back to the N. Lows 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH dropping to near calm.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops south to north during the morning through early afternoon then continues but becomes more showery southern areas late. Slight chance of thunder south of Boston late in the day. Highs 50-55. Wind near calm becoming E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, diminishing from south to north around midnight. Temperatures steady near 50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers early morning. Cloud/sun mix remainder of day. Highs 50-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH early, then NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 49.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Low 40. High 50.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 58.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain AM. Low 38. High 47.

162 thoughts on “Assorted Weathers”

    1. Pretty much. A little up and down in the temps, a couple rain or shower events. The bias is for cooler than normal in the next 2 weeks but it’s not yet an indication of a Winter pattern. Too much volatility.

  3. Thanks TK.

    “Leaves that stay on through November will follow a winter to remember.”

    I have yet to rake because trees are still full of leaves here in Boston and immediate suburbs. I usually start raking by Halloween but I probably won’t have to start until sometime next week the way things look in my yard for now.

    1. Our leaves are 1 to 2 weeks ahead of last year. Most of ours are down and raked, by the wind, already. The wind basically blew them all away. 🙂

  4. The 6-10/8-14 day CPC has the cold for entire eastern half of the CONUS with Alaska and much of the west having well above normal temps.

    Do you agree with the CPC at this time TK?

    1. Even the CPC has the core of the cold air coming to our area gradually, first plunging due southward then eventually moving eastbound.

    2. I do agree right now. This outlook was different than the previous one, and being impacted by tropical activity from the Pacific. We did chat about this previously. It doesn’t, for now anyway, have major implications on the early Winter pattern.

  6. http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg

    Infrared satellite of arctic. (dark is warmer, white is colder)

    Left side of photo, the darkness in the ocean is probably last bits of still open water, thats probably in the 30s and relative to everything else is very mild.

    Onthe left side of the photo, perhaps you can make out the high cirrus clouds circulating around a high pressure aloft.

    My favorite thing to see is the bright white on the cobb-web looking ice. I think that brighter white, which extends from north of Alaska, northeastward all the way north of Greenland, is some very, very cold air forming in the Arctic. I think the ice has the cobb-web look because its refreezing and probably cracking some as it hasnt yet frozen thick.

    1. That’s the southern stream system I mentioned in the discussion above, regarding the Sunday event, or lack thereof, in this area. 🙂

  10. Just noticed that far northern VT, NH and Maine all have some type of winter weather advisory, watch or warning.

  13. Driving in this morning it started with drizzle and then transition to a steady very
    light rain.

    Btw, looking ahead. Where is all of this BIG CHILL people are discussing????

    So far I don’t see anything but routine crap. 😀

    1. Listening to half the people I know, including some family members, you’d think it settled in weeks ago.

  15. I already am reading about the Polar Vortex arriving next week ughhhh. Is this what we will hear all winter.

    1. Oh yeah, the Polar Vortex. 😆 😆

      What will it deliver for us? One day in the 40s and the rest in the 50s.
      He he he har har hardy har har. Big WOO.

      If it delivers several days in the 20s or even 30s, then I’ll listen. Until then,
      Polar Vortex might as well be a day at the beach. 😀

  16. What does this mean for Winter????

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

    NOAA sees lower chance of El Niño: NOAA’s U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center has dropped the likelihood of El Niño developing to 58% (from 65%), noting that ocean and atmospheric coupling necessary to declare an El Niño has not happened.

    The forecast issued today says forecasters still expect El Niño to emerge this winter, but with less confidence. If El Niño develops, it is favored to be weak. The El Niño Watch issued on March 6 is still in place. Next update: December 4.

        1. You’re usually pretty damn good with your assessments, so perhaps you will be correct.

          I just get this sneaky feeling it won’t be as cold as
          advertised.

          Unless it’s going to snow, I really don’t care whether the cold comes or not. However, if it means snow, bring it on.

      1. Its still a computer model for 20+ days out Charlie. It seems when data shows colder than normal temps its “too far out” or “not a trusted model”, but when data shows warmer than normal, you take it at its word. Can’t have it both ways 😛

  21. From Eric Fisher:

    How cold? Well this shot may rival or break the one we saw last week after our nor’easter. That outbreak of cold broke records in the south and brought the 40s all the way down into south Florida. This one may be directed a little farther west, starting across the Plains and the Front Range of the Rockies. But eventually wintry air will envelop all of the east. We’ll be on the fringe of it, so our departure from average won’t be quite as impressive. Even still with so much cold around, the chances for a snowy event in the east will go up as we head toward the end of the week/weekend.

  22. From DT

    Typhoon Nuri, along with its reincarnation as a non-tropical system, appears likely to combine with several other factors to direct multiple rounds of cold, Arctic air into the Midwest and eastern U.S. during the remainder of November.

      1. Actually ace Harvey and Tk are usually always on the same page. Harvey in my humbled opinion is the best tv met on by far.

    1. Good reading , thank you. I have somthing I’ll post later that Judah wanted me to check out. By the way he has not issued winter forcast yet.

  25. This is the year we can throw out the November / Winter correlation.

    Also expect cold shots to occur but come in slightly milder than modeled.

  26. If someone asked me to explain typical early November weather in New England in one word, i would say, today

  28. CPC is starting to back off the wet forecast and this follows the thoughts posted about the long term pattern shift up to this point. Interesting in a way that this is still the case despite the colder dumps of air expected from the alteration of the large scale pattern due to the Super Typhoon in the West Pac. In the grand scheme, things are too powerful to suffer more than temporary perturbation.

    1. What you talking about Willis?

      If the Winter does turn out snowy, it sure looks like it might get a late start.
      Nothing cast in concrete just yet, but I don’t like how it is looking.

      1. I will say that I am still pretty unclear on what to think about later Winter, not only because it’s further away (obviously) but because I am not sure how one thing is going to lead to another just yet. I’m not too clear on it. But I do continue to lean to a drying trend and worsening drought into 2015.

        1. See my post below. I don’t know what to think.
          Happy I don’t get paid to give a Winter Outlook.

          I “may” have to rethink my leanings towards colder/snowier. 😀

      1. With all due respect TK I’m getting confused with these little hints that you keep putting out there . Again I don’t hold you to any of it but seems to me you even may not be quite sure what it’s going to do. I’m eagerly awaiting that post. Again with all respect here.

    2. I guess it depends on your definition of snowstorm. We usually get a event or two that drops a 1-3incher. I wouldnt consider that a snowstorm

  33. I have a new rain gauge as I am now a part of CoCoRaHas so will be reporting precip amounts. I will post my QPF numbers here if people are interested. My son is loving the fact I like weather so much.

    1. yes, yes and yes!!! Please do so.

      So where have you deployed it? Back yard, deck, roof? Curious

      I’m not going to get one because I really don’t have a good location to
      deploy it. It just would NOT be accurate.

  34. All the varying thoughts on the upcoming winter are enough to make one’s head explode. All the conflicting data is getting out of control. I’m gonna tryn and not worry about it and let happen what will happen. Can’t change it right?

      1. btw, in the old days, that’s exactly what we did! Just let it happen and enjoy the ride one way or the other.

        I don’t think the Winter of 1968-1969 is an analog to this year,
        but I “wonder” if something like that happens again. Main trough was to the West. There were Lakes cutters/inside runners one after the other after the other with COLD air in between. Couldn’t catch a break until 2/11 then BAM. Where I lived in Millis, two 2 foot + snow storms 13 days apart.

        Nah, NOT gonna happen.

        1. Is that the year we had major snow storms three weeks in a row or was that previous year? I think it was spring 69 we had major flooding where they were sand bagging Charles

  35. Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 9h9 hours ago
    The NEW GFS model may stop the long range hype that has been going on. It seems to be doing much better then the Euro and Old GFS!

  36. im thinking a zonal flow will take control of the nations weather through december with accasional dips for eastern half of the country. if not longer unfortunently .. possibly below normal snowfall first half of winter then above average for the rest of winter?

      1. I get a kick out of Patrick when he says we r energy efficient, really? I certainly hope so!! Half the street lights aren’t on anymore, and there’s no street lighting on the highways where it’s busy, I mean u can’t even see the lines in road during rain, we just don’t have lighting here is why we r efficient lol

    2. Many are back there for now, but some are still low. We are still low here. Expect the levels to drop significantly in the next 2 to 3 weeks due to below normal precipitation.

  47. Well …… I saw snowflakes on BB’s 7 Day. Yup, for this coming Thursday. In fairness, he said “a chance.”

  48. Good morning!! Looking like a nice weekend coming up, lots of high school/college football activities. 🙂 good day

  49. I saw on the news as well as tk alluding to it, about after thanksgiving a change to a milder pattern holding winter off till the new year. That’s twice now, something’s up 🙂

  51. I think barry burbank is basing his forecast on the gfs. ,its been showing a storm out to sea and so is the Euro. the difference is that the euro shows it bringing in cold air for a few days and then warming right back up ahead of a lake cutter. The gfs has the storm, further out to sea, but the cold sticks around a bit longer with no lake cutter.

  53. Hey matt, are you going to the ski expo this year? I’ll be working the ticket booths sat and sun. If u see me, give me a wave and i’ll see if i can get u in free 🙂

      1. Thurs Nov 13 – Sun Nov 16.

        They have a LOT of gear at excellent sale prices. Plus fun things for kids too 🙂

  55. Good morning.

    IF I am reading the charts, there “appears” to be a storm brewing for A week from today or tomorrow, next Fri/Sat time frame.

    Currently, the Euro is most bullish with a close pass near benchmark. GFS more off shore = glancing blow and CMC basically ots. If and of course that is a huge IF, it were
    to verify, COLD Enough for SNOW. Of course there still may be boundary layer issues
    near the coast.

    We shall continue to watch.

      1. Now that I see it close up, not quite a benchmark as it
        appears to be East of it, but still close enough to be interesting.

        BUT it is OUT there, so subject to many changes.

        1. This needs to be watched. Although not a monster storm, could be a sizeable snow producer if it comes close enough.

          1. I agree …. its when there’s cold air nearby and potentially to work with …. and seems to be something that’s believable …. a system traveling along a boundary btwn what will be well below normal temps in the Plains and Great Lakes and milder temps in the mid Atlantic and Southeast.

            1. Water temperature out there still
              at 52F. Pretty warm.

              Wind direction and enough Cold
              will play into this “should” it come about.

              Could get interesting.
              Could be a case where it’s raining at Logan and snowing in Western/Southwestern sections of the City. 😀 OR even more inland.

              Way too early to even discuss this, but
              ah what the bleep, that’s what we do here. 😀

  57. Based on storm reports from Taunton NWS …

    Presque Isle, ME with 3 inches of snow and Caribou, ME …. 2.5 inches.

    Lucky them.

    1. They seem to want to hide that information and make it available only when they want?? 😀 I dunno I took a quick look and couldn’t find it either.

    2. Once on the Taunton NWS page, look for the tab on the right (top 1/3rd of the page) that says CLIMATE and PAST WEATHER.

      Click on that, then look on left side of the page, about 1/3rd of the way down, it has the old storm totals link.

  60. Hadi,

    You’re getting the run around from the NWS. yeah sure, the rain totals are exactly where they said! NOT!!

  63. This morning Al Roker said that the polar vortex will be arriving with little or no moisture, so I guess TK’s thoughts on very dry conditions developing as time goes on into 2015 is closer to verifying perhaps?

    Btw…Al Roker is a real met, correct?

    1. It’s arriving with little moisture, it all depends after where a wave develops along the frontal boundary.

  66. Yesterday Boston hit the jackpot on rainfall (0.59″) with most surrounding areas no more than 1/3 of an inch. I belive Nantucket received the most with 0.89″.

    Now if Boston could only hit the jackpot during a snowstorm! The “suspect” 27.5″ for the 2003 Presidents’ Day storm doesnt’ count, at least not with me. 😉

  68. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago
    ECMWF 12z turns USA into a winter wonderland. What’s startling is its similarity to upgraded GFS model. Now what do we do?

  71. Someone mentioned Al Roker?

    Albert Lincoln “Al” Roker, Jr. (born August 20, 1954) is an American television weather presenter, actor and book author.

    I do NOT believe that he is a full-fledged meteorologist. 😀

  72. Ace I am planning on going to the ski expo I need new boots. Plus I hope I will win some tickets. and the sea food sampling 😀

  73. Working on new blog…

    Blustery tonight, sky clears.
    Bright sun fades later Saturday, but nice day.
    Limited sun starting Sunday then more sun, nicer day.
    Monday, fair and cool.
    Tuesday, Veterans Day, wonderful weather for parades and observances, fair/milder.
    Wednesday, cloudy, rain showers around, cooling.
    Thursday-Friday, fair and chilly, but not the “huge Arctic outbreak” that you are hearing advertised, and no snowstorm either.

    Stay tuned…

  75. There is little logic behind it but these are the storms to watch out for. It’s the storm that has been forecasted to hit the BM this far out that rarely materialize.

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