Weekend Outlook / Peek @ Next Week Including Veterans Day

153 Comments

3:40PM

It’s all connected, and sometimes it’s more apparent than other times. You’ve been hearing about how a western Pacific Super Typhoon (Nuri) turning into one of the strongest storms “ever observed” in the Bering Sea (and yes that’s true but we’ve only been “observing” for a short time) will impact the weather in the USA. Yes, this is all true as well, but doesn’t need necessarily to be made to sound like something that never has occurred, never should occur, and who knows if it will occur again. It’s just the Earth’s atmosphere, doing its job, and sometimes its reactions are powerful, other times more subtle.

Ok, enough editorializing, let’s just get to the weather. Well here it is…

Low pressure is pulling away into Canada, and in typical November fashion, we are left with blustery weather in its wake. Lots have clouds have dominated the day Friday with moderate and gusty northwesterly wind, chilly air, and a few sprinkles around after Thursday night’s rain moved away. As this low continues to distance itself from southeastern New England, drier air will flow in overnight, with slackening winds and a clearing sky, setting up cold conditions. Some areas will experience a hard freeze (especially inland suburban valley and rural areas). So, Saturday will start very chilly but the day will also start with plenty of sunshine. This sun will become more limited later in the day as a weak trough approaches from the west. It will be a cool day. The trough will pass by with cloudiness at night and some patchy rain shower activity. Temperatures will not fall that much and it will also be warming aloft so not expecting snow showers. By early Sunday, this trough will be moving offshore and the day will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and a little milder.

Early next week is still looking the same. Weak high pressure is around Monday which will be fair and cool. High pressure moves offshore, low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes, and a cold front approaches from the west later Tuesday but remains far enough away so that the day should be fair and mild. Weather will be favorable for Veterans Day parades and ceremonies. By Wednesday, the front will be in the region, probably pushing through and slowing down a little so that cloudiness and a risk of rain showers will be present. Later next week, a more amplified trough will swing into the eastern US and will bring at least chilly weather. Will watch for any potential unsettled weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, isolated sprinkles of rain during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 25-35, coldest interior valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting to 25 MPH in the evening, diminishing late.
SATURDAY: Lots of sun through midday, less sun later. Highs around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows around 40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Limited sun very early, then more sunshine. Highs around 55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 49.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 56.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 49.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 37. High 44.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

153 thoughts on “Weekend Outlook / Peek @ Next Week Including Veterans Day”

  1. Thanks TK!!! Hope everyone enjoys the weekend. I know I am patiently waiting for the 5:00 whistle to blow!

  2. Thanks TK.

    Although there was much in your discussion, here’s is what I took away from it:

    THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 37. High 44.
    FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

    WOW! That’s ALL the Big Polar Vortex can deliver to us. He He he 😆
    Not laughing at you or your forecast. Just at the media about the hype concerning this big Arctic Blast. I didn’t see temps any colder than low to mid 40s. And guess what? NO BIG DEAL for mid-November. The blast is going to primarily dive Southward well to the West of us, only fringing us at best. In short, cooler yes.
    Arctic Winter cold, NO!!!!

    Cold enough for snow should the ingredients come together? perhaps. 😀

    1. Talk about HYPE

      AccuWeather.com
      32 mins ·
      The outbreak of arctic air will be long-lasting and may linger well past the middle of the month; temperatures will plunge 40 degrees or more (compared to weekend temperatures) in the Plains.
      New York City may stay in the 30s from late next week into next weekend (their normal high is in the mid 50s), and the wind will make AccuWeather RealFeel temperatures even worse.

      1. You know middle of the month???
        Cold not due until 11/13. Middle of month is 11/15.

        What a JOKE!()@()#&*!()@*#()*!@()#*

    2. When they dive south and enter to our west, they modify before they arrive here. Our coldest weather, relative to time of year of course, comes via the Montreal Express. This is not going to be that.

      Yes, I realize with the trough, somewhat elongating, and some significant cold for this time of year in the area, we will have to keep an eye out for some potential storminess later next week. But it’s an eternity away with many different scenarios on the table. I’m going to do the usual. No need to change the way I approach these things. 🙂

      1. AMEN. Well said.

        Not sure on possible storminess. Even if not as cold as dead winter arctic air, it will certainly still be cold enough to support snow
        should everything come together just right. OF course, we have
        to watch the boundary layer depending on wind with the
        warm ocean out there.

      1. Not consistently though, and especially during transition seasons (Spring & Fall), so we cannot bank on that alone.

    1. Is this typical or record type number of systems? I don’t recall this many in the pacific but I don’t pay that much attention.

      1. It’s typical for an active season. I’ve seen many, having been an international forecaster not only for agriculture but also the tropics for quite a number of years. 🙂

        Very busy Pacific seasons (both east and west) often occur when the Atlantic is on the quieter side.

  10. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    During frosty nights water application to cranberry bogs protects the plants down to a temperature of …
    A. 30
    B. 27
    C. 24
    D. 21

    Answer later today.

  12. Disappointed, but not surprised, that many of the non-meteorologist social media sites, AND some of the meteorologist-run ones as well, are treating the pattern like it is the middle of Winter, and that any East Coast storm is an automatic snowstorm threat, and that the “PV” threat is being hyped as a return to the frigid temps of last Winter. I’ve seen one site use the term “bombogenesis” in regards to the PV, and the followers now think this is the “new term” for Winter 2014-2015, which, in case they haven’t noticed, HAS NOT STARTED YET. It’s The end of the first week of November. We’re in mid Autumn, heading into late Autumn. Not to mention, “bombogenesis” has been around a long time as a weather term, does not mean what they are using it for, and once upon a time was actually used where it applies instead of as a hype term to gain ratings or viewers on a social media site. Does a 40/70 storm automatically mean a snowstorm in July? October? November? It may as well, because that’s what everyone seems to think. It doesn’t even automatically mean snow in the dead of Winter. The mis-information has to stop, because people are just buying every line of bullshit that’s being fed to them. It’s really time for FB and social media to require clear disclaimers on any weather-related site explaining who and what they are, and proof of credentials. Clearly the general public is not able to figure out who to believe on their own.

    I just love the non-weather one going around social media now (again): The spider eggs that they used to stuff Beanie Babies with in the 1990s are now hatching. Right, they harvested billions of Brown Recluse spider eggs with an incubation period of over 20 years and used them to fill stuffed animals. People are FALLING FOR THIS coming straight from a satirical site without even questioning it! There are people who have actually taken and thrown away their collections based on a post on some gullible person’s FB wall. If this is how people are going to get and spread “news”, then we’ll never know the real story on anything, and that’s bad.

  13. Very well said.
    I am tired of hearing people the last two winters saying its the worst winter we have ever had. Come On!!! If you look at the snow totals for 2012-2013 2013-2014 they were above average but not totals that came close to the top 5 snowiest winters of all time. The cold was not brutal here in SNE last winter. It was much worse in the Midwest. The worst winter in my lifetime if you hate snow which I Do Not was 95-96 with over 100 inches of snow.

  14. Agree TK. As I mentioned to you last night Northeast Weather Alert and Weather Boy are scaring people into running and buying snow blowers etc…bc they claim winter is going to be brutal based on this cold spell that’s coming. As I read the comments people truly believe them.

  16. Well said above TK. Do we have something to watch about a week from now? The new parallel GFS shows a storm moving through then. Most other models look to keep it offshore though. From what I’ve seen and heard the new GFS is pretty good.

    1. Exactly and obviously there is nothing wrong with looking at all the guidance and the possibilities. Meteorologists do it all the time and hopefully are exercising the best judgement and not making public statements too soon or without a good idea of what may actually happen.

      A weather enthusiast, and I use O.S. as an example because we all know him, depending on their level of knowledge, may look at all the different possibilities and analyze them to the best of their ability and chat about them, such as O.S. does here. But people know what is going on and he isn’t going on some social media site and putting up a huge headline on a 300+ hour forecast model telling people that the sky is falling and they need to build a home underground. 😛 Exaggeration but you get my point. 🙂

      1. 😀

        Of course, I’m Mapman!

        I may post maps about “possibilities”, but rarely is it a predication. Once in awhile here I will make a pronouncement that I think it is going to happen, but not usually. I like that we are free here to discuss, forecast and sometimes even wishcast.

  19. 06Z Parallel GFS (Global Forecast System); 0.25°×0.25° forecast grid (had it at 0Z as well) This is for Friday evening and early morning Saturday next week.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110806/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110806/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

    Old GFS has a weak kitten passing well off shore to the South and East.

    Have they made real improvements to the GFS? For real? Do we have a new
    reliable tool for this Winter? OR is it all smoke and Mirrors? It will be interesting
    with this one how it pans out.

      1. It should be noted that the Euro and CMC take something OFF shore. So is the parallel GFS is fantasy land? OR onto something?

    2. For one I will pass. Son and family due here next sat to celebrate little guys first bday and we never see them so I’ll hope this goes poof. Selfish I know. Sorry 🙁

  22. re: Winter Outlook

    From our pal DT:

    Wxrisk.com
    7 mins · Edited ·
    THIS Story …right here …explains WHY the winter forecasts from CPC often suck moose balls for so many years … and will continue to do so. The director of CPC is 1000000% wrong.. the data is over whelming about the effect of Siberia snow cover in OCT and the impact on North American winters

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-06/harsh-winter-outlook-made-a-bit-more-dire-by-early-snow.html

  23. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 24s24 seconds ago
    Still major differences late next wk. all hinges on 2nd trof which GFS has weaker, although trending toward EURO look. New Eng main threat

  24. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan WVIT Tv
    No change I’m overnight model runs… Exceptional cold pattern develops late next week. Opportunity for light snow on Friday too

  25. One thing that looks certain is the below normal temps coming later next week but not before some mild weather early next week. As for that storm POTENTIAL late next week will see what happens.

  27. For the trivia quiz I will “guess” B.

    I believe Barry said snow showers Thursday night/early Friday. Does Logan get its first 1″ of the season TK??

    1. They do not. Not even sure they get a trace.

      But, at 5 to 6 days away, nothing is ruled out yet.

    1. This time I’ll have to disagree somewhat. OVERALL temps end up below normal. However, one mild day (Tuesday) may get well into the 50s. I think the front is close enough and cloud cover thick enough by Wednesday that we don’t get any warmer. Cold air arrives later in the week, but more slowly versus a big blast.

            1. Wed would approach 60 if the front is slower. We may still be on the “mild side” of it for a while but we will probably be overcast or at least mostly cloudy and with the lack of significant SW gradient wind it would be difficult to rise beyond middle 50s that day. We’ll see. Fine-tuning still ahead of us. I’ll give you Tuesday. A few places will hit 60 that day.

  31. Its interesting that the trend seems to be towards a few cold air surges into the US …

    however ….

    Then, I wonder what that means towards Thanksgiving and into early December ?

    Even in the cold season at high latitudes, a continuous gathering of very cold air isnt endless. At some point, once you’ve had many surges of it, it usually takes a bit for a new big batch of cold air to resupply.

    Makes me think that end of November into the start of December may be an opportunity for a return to avg or above avg temps.

    1. The trend is partly born of the change in the amplification and orientation of the northern hemispheric polar jet stream due to the extratropical storm that was once Super Typhoon Nuri.

      The orientation is such that cold shots can be delivered to the eastern US in stages, and will have a peak somewhere around or shortly after the middle of the month. After that, odds favor a reorganization and relaxation of the pattern.

  36. Actually it probably will hit 60 here Tuesday. Not sure about Armadillo errrr Amarillo 😉

  39. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    During frosty nights water application to cranberry bogs protects the plants down to a temperature of …
    A. 30
    B. 27
    C. 24
    D. 21

    The correct answer is C.

        1. I know they water them if a frost is imminent. We do the same in our garden. Somehow I thought cranberries did their best in cold weather but have no idea why since they must be harvested around this time of year

    1. I don’t dislike him. I’ve said many times he puts out a great weather blog, my opinion he just jumps a tad to fast. Just an opinion .

      1. I’ve gotten to know the guy. He doesn’t have a snow bias. He’s enthusiastic and that is easily misunderstood as hype. He gets excited about what he does. The problem these days is that it’s hard for people to pick that out from media hype.

        He’s not a perfect forecaster, but I’ve still yet to meet one. 🙂

      2. Eric is 1 for 1 this cold season with the forecasting of snow and it occuring, I think ….. I believe he was ahead of the curve with the storm last weekend.

        I’m trying to think back and recall actual examples of him expecting snow that we didn’t get. Nothing major sticks out in my recollections.

        Perhaps when an example of his snow bias occurs this year, you can point that out for us when it is happening.

        1. It happens to everyone. 🙂
          Eric did a good job on the last event (the first snow event of the season). It was a generally well-forecast event for the most part. There were people nit-picking a half-inch of snow error but those would be the people who have the same a 1:10 common-sense:brain ratio. 😛

      3. Pssstttt. Charlie when one mentions snow if the potential is there, it doesn’t mean bias…it means forecasting all possibilities.

        John, you really don’t want me to explain again why the mets are told they must be first to report and how that is on the heads of management and not the met…..do you? Read his blogs. I guarantee you will learn tons. They are very similar to what we have here. Except of course he isn’t TK 🙂

  41. I miss watching Eric Fisher on The Weather Channel. Very good meteorologist in my opinion and BZ fortunate to have him.
    We have winter storm Astro as Eric’s former employers decided to name the snow event that will affect northern parts of the country.

    2. Summarizing the initial thoughts: Negative AO for now, going neutral to positive by the end of November into early or mid December which should reverse the current colder trend to a warm-up over North America.

      Factors favor Negative AO to return shortly thereafter and be more often negative than positive for the Winter. HOWEVER, there are some observed conditions that differ from the last 2 Winters that make negative AO a little harder to sustain, including some factors that could but not necessarily limit the ability to get a negative bias. These are the unknowns and what will be focused on as to their impact, or lack of impact, whatever the case may be.

      It’s fair to say that the degree of uncertainty in the long range outlook is higher than that of the last couple Winters.

      It will be fun to follow their thoughts.

    4. Thank you TK. A very interesting blog and written so the average person can follow. I also appreciate your summary below.

  43. Important to note regarding AER’s blog. They are forecasting temperature, not snowfall. Many people will automatically infer above normal snow if they see a forecast for a colder Winter. That is not always going to be the case. Prime example, a couple cold Winters in the early 1980s which were snow-drought Winters. You can have the cold, but you still need the moisture.

    Also an important note, Dr. Cohen noticed the relationship between Siberian / Eurasian snow and temperature in the 1990s. So far it has been a very good correlation. But “so far” is only a VERY short period of time, and not nearly enough period of record to indicate a long-term reliable correlation. Though I believe that this will prove, in time, to be a trusted index, we have yet to observe enough seasons to determine the impact of the many other factors, in combination with this index, on the North America Winter temperature bias. Solar cycle, QBO, sea ice, PDO, ENSO, MJO, are just a few things to be taken into consideration. The fine Dr.’s Cohen and Furtado won’t need me or anyone else to remind them of this. They know it more than well. However, they are going to make their best call on what they do know, and the inherent uncertainty in this and any forecast should always be factored in.

    1. Actually, 1979-1980, and 1980-1981 were the 2 I was thinking of. So I should have said late 70s-early 80s. I have to check my data, but I’m pretty sure the first of those 2 Winters was the colder one.

  45. 1979-1980 Winter at Boston…
    December 1.30 inch melted.
    January under 1 inch melted.
    February 1.42 inch melted.
    March finally got wetter at just over 5 inches melted.
    Very little snow.

    1980-1981 Winter at Boston…
    December under 1 inch melted.
    January under 1.25 inch melted.
    February around 4 inches melted.
    March under 1 inch melted.
    That is a DRY Winter. There was very little snow as well.

  46. Tk many thanks for the blog link. Fascinating stuff. We’ll see how it plays out.

    Re: Near future.

    Not impressed by anything so far. Latest runs regarding potential storminess
    look crappy at best. Cold in these parts doesn’t look like much of anything. Blah blah blah is all I can say.

  48. http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/goesloop.php?sat=4gv

    For it to loop, I think you have to hit play on upper left.

    Storm sticks out on loop. Also, check out the upper right side and I think one can see the cold gathering in northwestern Canada. Since its an IR shot, it would be the white color on the land that doesnt move that indicates cold !!!

      1. Nice SW breeze. Front has not crossed yet. But with lack of low level moisture and drying at mid levels we should see cloudiness decreasing.

        Front is not loaded with cold air behind it anyway so quite a nice day.

  52. Hoping my Cowboys end their losing streak in London against one of the worst teams in football the Jacksonville Jaguars

  53. conflicting information for 11/17. Looks like something might be brewing. Time to just watch as it is what 8 days out? 😀

    Huge differences between parallel GFS and regular GFS. HUGE!

      1. It looks like NWS is trying to avoid getting heat over blown forecasts IMO. But this way, if people get less/more than the “likely” they can’t say they weren’t aware it could happen that way 😉

    2. Ha ha ha

      People will freak out with that. I don’t think the general public can
      handle that!!

      Watch out!

    3. I am probably not in the majority here but I think the three maps is a horrible idea.

      ONE map, and update it when there are changes. Make a forecast and update it when needed. Of course they are not all going to be right.

      May as well forecast a trace to 3 feet for every storm.

      1. I see both sides. I see this being a good idea in situations where variables are making a difficult forecast close to an event. More times than not in the past few winters, forecasts haven’t been even close to ironed out from a couple days to even hours before. I’ve seen those NWS snowfall maps fluctuate by almost 100% sometimes. Not a good way to make people feel confident of a forecast.

        1. I guarantee having three maps will confuse more people than it helps, and frustrate virtually everyone except most weather nuts (except me and some other possibly). I give this one season, and then it’ll be abandoned.

      2. TK I am totally and completely with you on this one.
        How much of the general public understand probability and statistics??? They won’t know what to do with the information.
        HORROR SHOW imho.

  59. 1977-78 = 85.1″
    1978-79 = 27.5″*
    1979-80 = 12.7″*
    1980-81 = 22.3″*
    1981-82 = 61.8″

    The winters 1978-1981 were very lean indeed in terms of snowfall as TK mentioned above. We all know what happened in Janurary-February 1978, but during the 1981-82 winter season there were two “bookend” snows in December 5-6, 1981 and April 6-7, 1982 which really contributed to the well above normal total. IIRC in between those storms, most of the winter was fairly quiet in terms of snow.

  60. Just drove by a restaurant in Kingston and their sign out front says “Official Polar Vortex Relief Station”. Oh boy!

Comments are closed.