The Week Ahead

171 Comments

4:41PM

A very nice weekend: Chilly and bright Saturday, a bit more cloudiness but milder Sunday. And we have not been attacked by any Polar Vortex yet now have we? 😉

Let’s look ahead now to see what may be in store. That “dreaded” major cold outbreak and Polar Vortex you are again hearing about will be here, in the form of a turn to colder weather at the end of the coming week, that is, colder than the average temperature for this time of year but remembering that the averages are made up of the extremes of temperature recorded on any given date over a period of a few decades. So, in other words, an outbreak of chilly weather in November is not really abnormal at all. This particular pattern was just instigated by a strong typhoon turned extratropcial storm in the Pacific Ocean – again something that actually happens quite often. This one just happens to be a little more pronounced in strength than some have been in the past. Nothing outrageous there either.

So you may ask, “what does this all mean for the weather around here in the coming week?” FUNNY you should ask that, because here’s the answer:

A sliver of high pressure will be in control on Monday as the remains of a weak system to the northwest of the region and offshore moisture and energy push away to the east and northeast. This leaves southeastern New England in the middle, and though there may be some cloudiness to start the day, the sun will take over, and it will be seasonable to mild. A front to the west will star to approach on Tuesday and low pressure forming down the coast on an old frontal boundary will start to push to the north, but both of these systems should remain far enough away so that Tuesday, Veterans Day, is at least partly sunny and on the mild side. The two systems will close in by Wednesday, resulting in a mainly cloudy day, though it is not likely to be very wet as moisture will not be abundant for these systems to work with. Expect only a chance of a little light rain on Wednesday. By Thursday-Friday, the front from the west will push through and it will turn somewhat colder. But the brunt of the cold air with the first real push from the altered weather pattern will actually move more to the east across southern Canada and not come down into New England. An area of energy moving around the base of a trough of low pressure will toss some cloudiness into the region Thursday night into Friday when a few snow showers may occur, as it will likely be cold enough to support snow versus rain. NOT a big storm, so don’t let the word “snow” scare you. The trough passing through on Friday will reinforce the chilly air for next weekend, especially Saturday, which will likely be a windy and cold day, but dry. Sunday should continue on the chilly side, but the weather itself is a little more questionable, depending on the evolution and movement of low pressure and associated moisture to the southwest. It could be a day that starts bright and ends cloudy ahead of an approaching storm system, but at 7 days away, possible outcomes are several. A slower-evolving situation would allow most of the day to be bright versus cloudy.

As a little extra, I can see this leading to a wet weather system about November 17 followed by the coldest air of the season so far around November 18-19. Just something to keep in mind for now.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s, coldest interior valleys, least cold near the shoreline. Wind W under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 30s interior valleys to lower 40s near the shoreline. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY – VETERANS DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Slight chance of light rain. Low 40. High 50.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 47.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers especially morning. Low 30. High 43.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 42.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

171 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thank you TK.

    I still think that the 3 map scenario for the NWS is a boondoggle at best.
    Big mistake. 😀

    1. It’ll be interesting if not frustrating to watch people’s reactions. You know most people get their NWS info online via FB and Twitter now. At least you couldn’t post THREE SNOW MAPS on NOAA Weather Radio!!!

  2. Sorry I haven’t been on here much as of lately…I was being held captive by the Polar Vortex 😉 Didn’t you get an alert on your phone about my absence? The P.V. will be serving time, thankfully.

    This horrific joke was brought to you by…

    A clone of TK 😉

  4. Thanks TK. Where did that 60 go? Honestly,I’m not sure we got above 55 today and it was lovely sitting outside with just a light sweatshirt.

    1. My posted forecast said “highs around 55” for today so… 😉
      Anyway, Boston’s high was 56.

      1. I was not clear and I always know your forecast and will never challenge it. It was the 60 forecast by others on Tues I think that I was asking about. Mia culpa

        1. My very poorly worded post was to point out we do not need to get to the imagined 60 later this week to enjoy the 55 we had today and that is forecast for this week….

          1. And now that I say all of that, i see a 60 for Tuesday. Was that really there before. I actually did read your post and missed it. I’m blaming it on my AB blood type. Recent report said that was most likely type to have memory problems. Signing off now and remember to just disregard all posts here except thank you to TK and that I enjoy Emily’s comments.

            1. 😀

              I knew you were not knocking MY forecast. I was just taking a rare opportunity to pat my own back for a good job on the temps today. 😉

              1. You have earned the right to pat your back on far more than the rare opportunity. I’ll be happy to pat your back any time…as will all here 🙂

  6. Thanks tk. Tough week here. Found out Wednesday our beloved 4 yr old golden doodle is very, very sick. Found out she was born with one kidney and the one she has is failing her fast. She is comfortable now but not really eating. Her sickness is chronic kidney failure and tonight we were told there is nothing that can be done. Doctor said take get off special diet, love her and spend time with her because it could be days maybe weeks but we need to sadly put her down . We are devastated. They said she is going to get worse fast and will suffer!!!!! So first sign we see it’s sadly off to the vet.

    2. John how very very sad. Four is so young. She is blessed to have you all to love and to know when it is time. Sending big hugs to you all

    3. I don’t know what a golden doodle looks like, but sorry John. I hope that after the time comes, you perhaps get another dog. There are plenty out there who need good homes and are healthy.

      1. She is half Goldan retriever and half poodle. The smartest and most friendly dog I ever met. Very loyal to family and only wants to please. She is the first to greet me at the door always and sleeps with me every night. Going to be tough.

    5. My brother just went through something similar when he learned his 8 year old dog had a disease and would not recover. Very tough loss. His dogs are his children. Thinking of you.

    6. Sorry to hear that John. I know it will be tough for the whole family. It is not easy to lose a pet. We become so attached to them.

    8. Sorry to hear about your doodle John. We have a very loving and wonderful 7 year old Labradoodle. She’s small (I guess her mom was a small poodle). I know how hard it can be when you have to put a pet down. I had a dog that lived to be the ripe old age of 18 but in the end we had to put him down.

  9. Barry said on air that after next weekend, there will be two possible snow events, but is it safe to say that the November 17 system won’t be one of them TK? 😉

    As for the 3 NWS snow maps, I say try it for a winter and if the public doesn’t like it, then so be it. I am still looking forward to them. It can’t be any worse than the Weather Channel naming winter storms.

    1. It’s 8 days out, but I see too much “uphill flow” and not enough cold where it would need to be for the November 17 threat.

      As for after that? A cold pattern does not directly translate to snow threats, but I can see via guidance where one might draw that conclusion.

    1. I hang up the clubs the first day i need to wear anything more than a long sleeved shirt, not worth it, lol

  12. I was just going to say GFS has a lot of action. Don’t agree that it’s a rainstorm yet Charlie. Temps are cold and being 8 days out too soon to say that. It’s honestly misleading to say that yet.

  13. Mike Wancum from WCVB tweet below. But I am ready for you Charlie to call every storm a rainstorm all winter when you have nothing to back it up with except your wish. When do you leave to SC?

    @MetMikeWCVB: 8 days away but models are trying to develop snow by next Monday. Looks cold enough, but will it develop? #wcvb http://t.co/sWI93YRmXt

    2. Get ready cause I believe we got a rainstorm early next week, let me guess you think it’s gonna trend colder? Will see what happens, right now it’s saying rain 🙂

      2. I agree its a rain event. But you can’t be certain of anything 8 days out. Thanks I like to think of myself as a decent perosn so I appreciate the compliment.

  14. Hmm.
    The 18z GFS is not a snow event. It’s a rain event with snow showers on the back side. Not sure what version Mr. W was looking at.

    1. he probably saw the last frames of the gfs and saw the storm that popped up there just this afternoon. Everything I have seen is a lake cutter

      1. Well there is a pretty valid possibility of an East Coast low early next week on the leading edge of the more meaningful trough arrival, but the set-up does not appear to be conducive to a snowstorm, but rather a rain event with snow showers behind the storm. Again remainder to all: It’s only mid November. It CAN snow, but people must be careful about treating this pattern like it’s January. Too many are doing that.

  15. Thanks for all the well wishes guys. She has been finally eating since we started her back on people food last night , boiled chicken. This just really sucks. As mentioned above if you have pats there a huge part of the family, a lot revolves around them. Hopefully she keeps eating and with her daily IV that we give her maybe we get some more time . And that’s the hard part there when? The vet can’t say but it’s pretty much a done deal. Thanks guys it means a lot.

  18. John, so sorry to hear about your dog 🙁 We have a 4 month old lab and i am so in love with her already. I’d be devastated if something ever happened to her. My thoughts are with u and your family

    1. I am ace. The worst part is she seems fine now but just knowing she won’t be here much longer is killing us.

      1. John, so sorry to hear about your dog. I know what it is like to lose a pet – it is heartbreaking – they are part of your family. Try to enjoy your dog while she is doing ok now – but it is still hard.

  20. Good morning. 1st time this year I had to scrape frost off of the car windows.
    Sign of things to come.

    I echo what Philip said. Barry DID say 2 snow threats next week.
    I don’t know what is he viewing. I think there is frost on his crystal ball.

    I see Jackshit. That’s what I see right now. Of course that can change.

      1. On a positive note, looks like eastern Canada will be building that snow pack which will make our cold shots colder and longer lasting going into early winter 😀

  22. Latest Ocean Temperature:

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Nov 10 2014, 7:50 am EST
    Mon, 10 Nov 2014 07:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 46.8 °F (8.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 40.8 °F (4.9 °C)
    Wind: Southwest at 6.7 MPH (5.83 KT)
    Wind Chill: 43 F (6 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1020.8 mb
    Water Temperature: 51.3 °F (10.7 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.4 m (1.31 ft)
    Dominant Period: 8 sec
    Average Period: 5.9 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: East (91 °)

    This alone will PREVENT snow in this area, UNLESS the set up is perfect.
    Need North wind and/or loaded wrap around moisture. That’s one good reason
    we don’t see too many November snow storms in coastal areas.

    I remember a Thanksgiving during the late 60s. Don’t remember exact date.
    Driving rainstorm in Boston. 16 inches of snow in Worcester. I’m guessing
    temperatures aloft supported snow even in Boston, but boundary layer croaked
    that. But not sure. 850 could have been above freezing along the coast. just wasn’t
    following that stuff then. Actually, didn’t have the means then. 😀

    1. I think they have presented the largest farce ever in the history of mankind!
      They are Bleepin IDIOTS!()@#&*(&!@*()#&*!&@*(#&!*(@&#&!@*&#

  24. Beautiful morning!! Last week of limes and final fertilizations, then 4 weeks of deep root ornamental feedings 🙂

    Truck says 52 degrees, nothing but sunshine 🙂

  25. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

    The water’s just not cooling off like it should be off of our coastline. for early to mid November …. and, we’ve just had some chilly weather. I’d question the analysis, but this is what the NHC uses, so, its got to have some validity, I’d think …..

    I mean, the 3C anomaly this week is huge and if you look close, I’d suggest there’s an even darker level of red (+4c ????) in there.

    1. This is surprising to me since we’ve had a couple larger ocean storms on our coastline the last few weeks to churn up that water and get the deeper cooler water to the surface

    3. Sorry,

      I had my glassess off and totally misread the map.

      The anomaly is rather HIGH up here and that REALLY WILL have an affect
      on possible coastal snows down the road.

  26. Lawn question for anyone who can help

    Grass still looks beautiful and I mowed it yesterday. I assume I should not lay down winter fertilizer. Anything else I should do. ? Thanks

    1. A winterizer is one of the most important visits, mainly bc the thatch is conserving energy for the winter, hope that helps 🙂

        1. You should be good hadi, if you want you can spread a little seed after agitating the soil in those spots of concern, it wouldn’t suprise me if it takes and you may see a little results in spring

  27. Another question, I have a couple small areas that the grass did not come in well. Anything I should do to ensure it comes in during the spring? Thanks p

          1. I’ve heard it can take years for lime treatments to take full affect in the lawn’s soil as it only penetrates about an inch a year with 3 consistent yearly applications. Is that true? And if so, is there any way to accelerate the benefits?

            1. With the old limestone you are correct, but with the new multi cal lime works in months and can be very helpful for next year, APPLY IT ON TBE HEAVY SIDE TO GET BEST RESULTS

      2. Never been told to apply lime. Don’t even know how to do it 🙂 Didn’t do it with the new lawn and it came out beautiful.

  28. Just had another thought on those ocean temp anomalies …… and the west coast of the US has above normal SST anomalies as well …..

    Supposedly, September 2014 was the warmest ever September on earth since records began ….

    Of course, 2014 was another better year for the arctic, as there was a bit more ice at the ice minimum ….. and, because of the Positive PNA and the negative AO, we had all those deep trofs and not that warm a summer ….

    But, still, the monthly analysis shows warmer than usual …

    So, perhaps the ocean is where all the warmth is going ?????

  29. The current 12Z reguar GFS depiction of system for 11/17

    Surface and 2M temps

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014111012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=165

    Surface and 850MN temps

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014111012&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=165

    Whatever the big woof Polar vortex brought to us, and it won’t be much by
    this time, is ERODED my WARM AIR ADVECTION!!!

    Depiction of the Parallel GFS 3 hours earlier

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

    Coastal too little too late as per usual.

    EXTREMELY difficult to get snow this time of year.

    1. Fascinating. Thank you Ace.

      CalTech? It would at least appear reputable?

      Not sure I agree with that assessment.

        1. I was upended yesterday and couldn’t seem to straighten myself out, so it makes me happy to see someone else do that, OS. Especially since you always know which end is up.

  33. John – I am so sorry to hear about your dog. That is so hard for a family to go through. Please know that you are all in my thoughts.

  34. Hi, Vicki and all, sorry for not posting lately. 2014 has been a little like last year – lots of frustrations. Husband still hasn’t had tooth extracted – not a money issue now – just that he has had other health issues popping up. His tooth isn’t giving him pain but it does have to come out. Stress has been hard on both of us. I have had neck pain for some time but dr. says it’s a strain and to sit up straight (I tend to slouch). I think I strained some muscles in shoulder a few wks. ago and have had burning sensations all over my body. At first worried about shingles – I don’t think so – but seeing dr. tomorrow anyway. See? I hate complaining.

    But weather-wise – I am rather amused with winter storm names – again – and Polar Vortex?? I think OS mentioned this – not sure – but if he did, I agree. Highs in the 40’s and lows in the 20’s not such a big deal. If we had 0 degrees – then we’d have problems!

    1. Just to say that OS mentioned the temperatures – not the Polar Vortex! That was the Weather Channel who created that title – or was it the NWS?

  35. Model divergence and conflicting information is the rule of the day.

    Given all that crap, the 17th “could” still end up interesting that’s all I can say
    at this point.

      1. No links yet, just this…

        ** NOTIFICATION ** Overall pattern is BUILDING towards 3 Winter events (accumulating snow Ice . rain ) for the eastern half of the US NOV 15-28

        1…. NOV 16-17-18 for OHIO valley Interior Middle Atlantic new much of New England ( gnore 12z GFS run on this …go with ecmwf)

        2 NOV 21-22… snow Ohio valley Interior Mid Atlantic Much of New england rain KY NC into se states

        3.. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN develops… more data shows big Low crashing into Calif bringing in much need rains to central south calif
        ( hello el nino) NOV 18-22… But with cold air still in place southern jet stream Lows over CALIF AZ may become winter storm for East coast AROUND NOV 25

    1. Until the euro can prove that it has any accuracy whatsoever beyond day 3 or 4, i will not even consider its outcomes beyond that

  41. Looking at the CPC maps and the overall pattern, the next 7-10 days look pretty dry up here I think. High pressure will keep us cold but also keep the storms south of us. Probably just passing rain or snow showers from time to time. Maybe a chance for a bigger storm around 10-12 days from now as the Euro is showing.

        1. Beautiful photo. The mountain is reaching up to heaven and peaking (pun intended) out the other side.

          OS – I missed the answer to the mountain identification quiz you posted the other day. Sadly, I can’t even remember the choices.

    1. I’ve been peaking over at the NHC from time to time to see their thoughts on this, but they havent identified it. Perhaps it is mostly a cold core system ??

  47. Hadi’s Winter forecast

    Dec-above average temps until after Xmas
    Dec precip- below average rain and snow

    January-average Temps
    January precip- above average snow

    February-Below average temps
    February-above average precip as well snow.

    March-above average temps
    March precip average but early snow.

    Snow total at Logan-56.78
    We will have two storms that are 15+ inches at Logan. We will also have 2 nights below 0 at Logan.

    1. Interesting. I’m still chicken to make a Winter Forecast.
      Not sure I could be as specific as you have been.

      Mine might be a simple snow total. 😀

    2. Hadi, could you please be a little more specific with the SNOW total??????

      Geez, you can’t get more precise than 2 decimal places?

      How about 56.775789525

      Yeah, that’s the ticket!

    3. Hadi thank you :). I’m going to move it to the contest page. I haven’t seen any others recently but will start checking the contest page and watching here too

  48. Marc Bertrand ‏@Marc_Bertrand 1m1 minute ago
    RT @Ken_Rosenthal Hanley Ramirez on #RedSox’s radar. Willingness to play LF or 3B adds to his appeal. Possible alternative to Sandoval.

  49. Fwiw…Eric says the cold will last into December but personally I can’t picture it lasting into the entire month or even half-way through it, at least not persistently.

    TK – What are your thoughts on December temps?

      1. Thanks TK. This is why I am not totally sold on Eric just yet like most here. Of course with forecasting weather, his thoughts may verify over yours, who knows? For now, I will stick with you. 🙂

        I will say this. I do agree that Eric’s blogs are very informative to say the least…and he does answer all questions asked of him over there unlike other previous WBZ mets…i.e.,Todd Gutner, Ken Barlow. 😀

  50. Dec-above average temps
    Dec precip- below average rain, 1 or 2 small snow events (under 3 inches for the month)

    January-average to above average Temps
    January precip- below average snow

    February-average temps
    February-slightly above average snow

    March-above average temps
    March-early snow but early spring
    Total snow 29.3
    Take it for what it’s worth 🙂
    Snow total at Logan-56.78
    We will have two storms that are 15+ inches at Logan. We will also have 2 nights below 0 at Logan.

  51. Charlie I moved yours to contest page

    Philip thank you for posting there

    TK Philip has asked if we round to tenths or hundredth. Is there a standard? Thanks

  52. Rolla KS dropped 31.1 degrees in an hour earlier today, now that’s what I call a cold front rolling through.

  53. Eric F tweet. Guess BZ is going with cold November.

    @ericfisher: Latest ECMWF weeklies are in…and say ‘Cold east of the Rockies through start of December.’ Historically cold November in some areas?

    1. I wouldn’t count on it Jimmy. The CPC has it quite dry around here unfortunately. Believe it or not the SE states will have precip above normal along with the cold. I hope this isn’t a precursor of the Winter 2014-15 but TK has been hinting at mostly dry throughout the upcoming season. 🙁

  57. Good seeing all the picks. I’m thinking I’m going to respectfully not participate as I’m just not into it. Molly had an awesome day today full of energy and eating very good. Was there to great me and jump on me when I arrived home freon work. On the couch now getting get Iv and eating Fritos, happy girl .

    3. John I know you are aware we lost our guy a month ago. He was perfect one day and not so much the next then perfect all over again. With all of the animals I have had in my lifetime, deciding for Rascal was the hardest decision I’ve made. My best advice for what it is worth is enjoy every minute and know she is blessed to have you and your wife and son to love her enough to make the right decision. We worried about our oldest grand. Rascal slept with him. There are some really great books out there that might help your son and you and your wife. I got some great advice from some of the folks on here as well. I think a lot of us are sharing in your tears. Hugs !!

      2. She sleeps with me Vicki the last 4 yrs. I’m very sorry to hear about the loss and no not sure how but I did not know that. I’m sorry. Believe me we are. We just had a good time giving her the Iv. What I mean is my wife was not crying and was letting me talk some good stuff. I don’t want to post this stuff everyday cause it’s not fare to the blog. We are just devestated but actually tonight was nice. Molly is very, very happy right now . Very touching post Vicki thank you.

        1. John, I’m so heartbroken for you, your family, and sweet Molly. Praying for a miracle… they truly are furchildren. My kitties are sending healing and loving purrs, too. <3

  59. Working on a new blog in a bit.
    Also putting together some thoughts on the Winter forecast which will be posted this weekend (probably Sunday). One adjustment I am thinking of making to my early thinking is for a colder bias to start off. The lack of emergence of weak El Nino and the uncertainty of it ever arriving is making it more difficult to go milder at this time.

  60. Brett Anderdon tweet

    @BrettAWX: Looked at the latest ECMWF seasonal model and I believe that the model is showing it’s warm bias once again for the DJF period.

  61. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 23m23 minutes ago
    Sunday setup bears watching. Could be a rain/snow mix of a coastal storm for the Northeast.

  67. Can see rain / snow possibilities for Monday. Too far out for anyone to make a call, but the development of some snow ingredients are at least possible.

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