Forecast Update

131 Comments

7:27AM

Quick forecast update. Full discussion on next post later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs around 60. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle after midnight. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a slight chance of drizzle and light rain through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy later but with a clearing trend western areas late. Highs in the 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 47.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 30. High 44.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain/snow at night. Low 30. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 45.

131 thoughts on “Forecast Update”

  2. Enjoy today and tomorrow morning as its going to get cool and cold by next week. I see several days next week in the 30’s.

    Matt Noyes talked about potential for snow Sunday night into Monday but he was unsure at this point.

  4. Logan +5F the last hour.

    Top of Blue Hill is 48F, Worcester at 45F, summit of Mt. Washington is 30F and climbing.

    Block Island is 55F with a SW wind off of the 55F-60F ocean down there.

    Satellite gives the impression of full sunshine the next few to several hours.

    Lets see where we get to for high temps today.

  6. Thank you, TK!!

    OS, I don’t know if you use FB but there was a spectacular photo this morning of the ISS from the summit of Mt. Washington on the Mt Washington FB page. I tried to find it elsewhere to post a link here for you but could not 🙁

      1. WE HAVE A WINNER!

        Mt McKinley, Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska

        Elevation: 20,237 ft (6,168 m)

  12. WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 7m7 minutes ago
    Big GFS upgrade coming 12/17. 5 minute daily Real-Time Global Sea SurfaceTemperature (SST) to replace 1.0 degree Reynolds 7 day SST analysis

      1. Yes and no, Technically, probably Not, but in general Yes.

        Guadalupe Peak is the highest natural point in Texas,[3] with an elevation of 8,751 feet (2,667 m).[1] It is located in Guadalupe Mountains National Park, and is part of the Guadalupe Mountains range in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. The mountain is about 90 miles (140 km) east of El Paso and about 50 miles (80 km) southwest of Carlsbad, New Mexico. It rises more than 3,000 feet (910 m) above the arid floor of the Chihuahuan Desert.

  14. DT tooting his horn:
    I wonder who the one person was?????

    Wxrisk.com shared US National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center’s status update.

    THE GREAT SURPRISE NOV 11 1987 VETERANS DAY SNOWSTORM .. this snowstorm was totally missed by all EXCEPT for 1 person

  17. Ok all of these forecasts have egged me on.

    Here goes for Winter 2014-2015, snow predication only:

    I am basing my prediction on the Near record October snowpack in Siberia and Northern Hemisphere snowpack in general. I also believe that there will be either NO El Nino OR a very weak one at best. I also believe that there will be an active pattern with many Coastal storms and/or Miller B type storms this Winter, some very strong due to anomalous SSTs off the East Coast.

    Add it all up it it spells Monster Snows this Winter:

    Predictions:

    Boston (Logan): 94.6 inches
    Providence: 87.3 inches
    Worcester: 114.2 inches
    Hartford: 96.8 inches
    Portland Me: 133.1 inches
    Concord NG: 174.2 inches

        1. I like it. Its encouraging early to see an amplified pattern setting up allowing coastals to get going, something we didnt have last year and still somehow ended up with near average snowfall. Not saying this pattern will stick, but if it at least repeats, than your predictions could very well come to fruition.

          1. I’m NEVER correct with these predictions.

            I went low last year and got screwed.

            Going high to maintain screwedness. 😀

            1. LOL! Screwedness, i like it!

              It’s ok, there were a lot of predictions blown out of the water the past 2 winters, mostly due to surprise events that broke the mould of the mean pattern

  21. Hey all – just a friendly reminder. If you post your predictions on the contest page, it makes it easier for me to not miss and also it is a great place to return to where you can see everything recapped. Thanks 🙂

  23. I find it interesting to watch the first surge of cold air, Thurs -Sat.

    If one follow’s the path of the high, its right down through the Ohio Valley and eventually south of New England.

    Impacts …

    1) I dont think it will be as cold Thursday – Saturday as maybe seen on TV. Of course, checking above at TK’s numbers, he’s totally on top of this, as usual.

    2) whatever small system occurs late next weekend, there’s return flow from the S and SE ahead of the system’s arrival. In my opinion, given the return flow, the current ocean temps, no high to the north, that system has NO chance at any frozen precip within the viewing area.

    1. Don’t right off Monday’s event just yet. It may very well be liquid for reasons you stated, however, a small system I don’t think it will be. Could be a rather
      potent system. 😀

        2. Thanks OS !

          I have to take some time and read up/introduce myself to this parallel GFS.

          I’ve seen you and Hadi posting it recently, but I havent really taken time to know what it is ….

          An upgrade ????

    2. Now the 2nd system, early the following week (and I know we are 10 days out), but as currently shown, as projected, that one would seem to offer a more hopeful opportunity for frozen precip. Has a cold high to the north, etc.

  25. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 9m9 minutes ago
    So much for a warm-up over next 7-days. Upgraded GFS 12z double-dips cold weather w/another blast, worse.

  26. I posted the totals I have to date on the contest page. Please let me know if I missed anyone.

    I am also keeping track of the indepth comments

  32. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 20m20 minutes ago
    If u want a Nor’easter, then hard to find better upper-level pattern than early next week. “Wild card” in forecast

  35. There’s a little irony going on here…
    The pattern is about to turn colder than average, which we have seen many times in the past. However, it is not going to be all that conducive to early-season snowstorms which will frustrate snow lovers, but really shouldn’t frustrate them given the fact that it’s only the middle of November. Sort that out. 🙂 While it is true we do have a shot at some decent precipitation around Monday, the overall pattern is going dry, as was expected, as we move through November. That part hasn’t changed. The part that I had to change was the temperature outlook. That is going to be the biggest impact due to Nuri and a few other factors. I see the cold pattern lasting pretty much the entire second half of November.

    1. I know, I know -I repeat but stuff sticks in my old brain and cannot seem to shake loose — ocean temps were 46 January 1, 2012

  39. TK – some of the winter predictions state average, below average, or above average

    I’m thinking since you reference the averages frequently, you have access to and can post the following averages. I wish I knew so could do the leg work for you and maybe someone else could help as I hate asking you to do more work than you already do, TK.

    If you have simple link where I can find the info, I will be more than happy to weed it out which may be the easiest

    Per month
    Average high/lo
    Average rain
    Average snow

    I see some mention of early and late snow but not sure that can be quantified

  40. OS, on your comment about ocean temps. This was from you last year almost to the exact day, pretty consistent with last year…

    Old Salty says:
    November 13, 2013 at 9:01 AM

    Hmmm

    Ocean Temperatures off of Boston down to 51 (50.9 and 51.1 respectively).

    Still a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG way to go.

    In good Winters I can recall that ocean temperature being 46 on Thanksgiving Day.

    This Winter we’ll be lucky to see it 46 by December 15th. 😀 😀

    1. That’s funny.

      Well last Winter turned out OK didn’t it.
      Once it gets cold, that water actually can cool off fairly quickly.

      We shall see. 😀

  41. IIRC, last Nov ended up below normal temp-wise, which dropped the ocean temps pretty steadily. This Nov might shape up very similar in temps. Actually, i was reading some of the blog entries and comments from this time last year and there are some eerie similarities 🙂

    1. Last year was much colder to this point, my lawns r still beautiful green, last year they were already turning a lime green, the lawns looks nice and green for mid Nov, normally they start losing color around 1st week of nov, they haven’t yet, which is good, I talked to a landscaper today and said he going to be mowing into late Nov as compared to last year he stopped in late oct.

      1. Different variables are at play this year besides temps. The lawns this year have been aided by wet weather since Oct.

        1. That doesn’t matter if we had the freezes and frost that we had last year the lawns would not be green 🙂

        2. Lawn dormancy begins when soils consistently get below 39 degrees, I checked the soils this morning at 1 inch depth and there still in the 50’s 🙂

  44. Just watched Eric Fisher’s forecast, said Boston will see its first 32 degree temp of the season this weekend. Is that true? Has Logan not seen 32 yet??

  46. Vicki I will work on finding the best source of info for you. Some of them have changed format recently.

  47. It’s becoming apparent to me that the “new” GFS is going to present an entirely new but somewhat familiar set of problems. I hope nobody is thinking we’re suddenly going to have a “magic model” available. Not happening. 😛

          1. No, I think TK was just saying that even with improvements, it still won’t handle every situation perfectly. We’ll still receive imperfect guidance at times. Not even the Euro is/was perfect. 😀

            I honestly do believe it is an improvement over the piece of crap that was known as the GFS.

            I’ve been monitoring the difference. I for one am pleased so far. NOT that means it’s perfect, far from it. Just better!

    1. Mac said the same JJ. Doctor told him to start holding golf club in both hands any twisting lightly. He has to get his balance which will take until next spring but the surgery was from L2 to T1. Or reversed so it does not affect shoulder area of lower back used for golf. He is sooooo excited.

  50. Winter forecast hint #3:
    I have a feeling we’re going to be having a secondary contest this year late in the season about whether or not Boston is going to have 3 Winters in a row of above normal snow for the first time since 1975-76 thru 1977-78 …

      1. Speaking Boston as in Logan. They were above the last 2 Winters according to the #’s I have. There was some controversy about the official total 2 Winters ago. I’ll try to confirm that. Not sure about every other location. If this Winter was to go above for snow, it would be the first time in a very long time for 3 consecutive positive snow anomalies.

      1. When I look it up, I find the same figure you posted. Gee that’s a surprise. Don’t know why I thought Logan had like 61 inches
        last year? You’ll have to kick me off the blog.

  52. Checking in with the Marquette, MI NWS, it seems that around Marquette, MI has received between 20 – 25 inches of snow the last 24 hrs.

    Talk about enhancement on a microscale level, they got plenty of snow from the low pressure area itself, but most of the time, they had a N or NE wind off of the great lake due north of them, whose temp is still in the low-mid 40s.

    Another impressive sign to how cold the air is out there that they stayed snow with the lakes still so relatively mild.

      1. Oh my !! That doesnt look like powder either !

        Next year, we should predict for them, as well as Logan.

        Even Charlie would have to start at 50 inches and well …..

        Someone would probably shoot for 300 inches 🙂 🙂 🙂

  53. …patchy dense fog possible overnight into wednesday morning…

    a warm and moist airmass by november standards was over
    connecticut… rhode island, massachusetts and into new hampshire
    this evening. this combined with light winds will result in patchy
    dense fog overnight into wednesday morning. there is some
    uncertainty on how widespread the fog will be. thus a dense fog
    advisory has not been posted. however at least some patchy dense
    fog is likely overnight. therefore morning commuters should plan
    some extra time to reach their destination. if forecast confidence
    on widespread dense fog increases later this evening a dense fog
    advisory will be issued.

  54. Taunton NWS

    SUN/MON…STARTS OFF DRY SUN BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP LATE
    IN THE DAY AND ESP AT NIGHT INTO AT LEAST MON AM. PTYPE DIFFICULT
    AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST SNOW OR WINTRY
    MIX CHANGING TO RAIN MOST LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW
    BRIEFLY BEFORE ENDING. AGAIN…TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN. STAY TUNED.

  59. To me IF we are going to have Lakes Cutters, then the cold is a JOKE.
    A PRETENDER. Meaningless. Useless. Let it stay mild. Keep the Cold out West.

    1. I suspect it will move east with time. Certainly hope that wont be the pattern going forward, cold and dry interrupted by lakes cutters then back to cold and dry

      1. That is my fear. Even the one for Monday has a cutter, except
        by some miracle it looks to form a coastal.

        The Winter of 68-69 started like that. Cutters and inside runners
        all over the place and then the mean trough moved Eastward and WHAM!! all hell broke loose for about a month. Didn’t happen
        until almost mid February.

  61. Some fog here. Nothing earth shattering. Dylan dryer said 50 deg below avg in Denver. She has yet to use PV word in times I have heard her. Matt Lauer, however, cannot say it enough

  62. Blog updated finally.
    Had a computer issue last night but was able to recover a draft and finish this morning. 🙂

  63. I heard a news outlet say that the polar vortex never happens in Nov, courtesy Matt laugher, the national ratings for this show is HUGE!!! I’m even beginning to get calls on what’s going on? Is there another polar vortex coming? It’s to late now unfortunatley, this has never happened before lol

Comments are closed.