In Case You Forgot, Turning Cold In November Is Not Unusual News

115 Comments

7:20AM

As the hype-style news stories and headlines go on, we’ll just stick to forecasting and talking about the weather here. I do realize that some very cold air is heading down into parts of the USA and that some rather significant snowfall has already taken places in portions of the northern Plains to far northern Midwest, but this type of thing is not unprecedented, even if it does have a significant impact on the region it occurs. And just because somewhere in the northern Plains got dumped on with over a foot of snow doesn’t automatically mean that exact event is coming right to where you live, despite what many media will push you toward believing. So, what is really most likely to happen here during the next week, and why? Read on…

First, the fog. Temperature and dew point being the same is saturated air and in a situation with calm wind can lead to dense fog, which formed in much of southeastern New England overnight and will slowly dissipate during the day today. The low overcast with it will also try to break up as the day goes on. A storm passing east of the region will be too far away to have any significant impact. Also a cold front will be approaching from the west but will not have a whole lot of moisture to work with, so we’ll be left in the middle with mild and slowly drying air. Just a few rain showers may survive along the front to get into areas mainly north and west of Boston toward the end of the day. Some areas will see more sun than others by later in the day.

Tonight, the front will push through and will bring the first slug of colder air in. Thursday will feel quite a bit cooler than today, and will be. But another trough will cross the region Thursday night with a few snow showers as even colder air comes in, leading to a windy and chilly day Friday with sun and passing clouds.

The weekend will start bright and cool Saturday as high pressure dominates, but a low pressure area will then approach from the southwest later Sunday which will probably start bright, finish cloudy, and turn wet at night. It should be mild enough for mostly rain from the next system, but with colder air very nearby we’ll have to keep an eye on that for changes. The energy from that system should be strung out enough so that Monday will likely be a cloudy and damp day. But by Monday night another push from the west will kick that all out of here and introduce the coldest air of the season so far by Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Dense fog slowly dissipating with low clouds lingering during the morning and midday. Breaking low clouds with at least partial sun possible this afternoon. Slight chance of showers mainly NW of Boston later in the day. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 30s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night, possibly mix at start. Low 25. High 44.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 44.
TUESDAY: Sun and clouds. Windy. Low 25. High 38.

115 thoughts on “In Case You Forgot, Turning Cold In November Is Not Unusual News”

  2. Thanks for the great information TK.

    This is where I look when I want to know what the weather will be instead of whether the universe will end in fire or ice.

  3. Thanks TK – great post!

    And computer problems are bad any time but the worst at night. Sorry to hear that and glad you got it fixed!

  4. Thank you TK.

    Yup, this cold is NOT unusual at all. I agree with you 100%!!

    And the cold surge is so far West of us that by the time it arrives here it is a mere
    shadow of its former self. In other words NOTHING. Big woof. Gimmie a break.

    And as I posted on the previous blog, I am getting concerned that the pattern is
    setting up for brief cold shots followed by warm ups from LAKES CUTTERS.
    We shall see if that materializes. If it rains, it rains. It’s still mid-November, but
    don’t give me those Facuckta Lakes Cutters. At least make it a storm that brings
    SNOW for the SKI Industry in Northern NE. Is that too much to ask?

  6. The fog now is 10 times worse than it was at 6:30 this morning when it was almost no-existent, at least in my area. Can barely see out my office window

  7. Good morning all. Foggy as all heck down here in Plymouth. I can’t see out any windows now but I assume it has begun to lift. It was the type of fog where I was afraid when pulling out of my street that I might not see a car coming at me. And I totally agree about November having cold spells and warm spells. One year I would be bundled up in ten layers to go to the Thanksgiving football game and the next year I wore only a sweatshirt. Certainly not abnormal.

  9. I got to admit, with the named snowstorms and the new polar vortex talk it has ruined a lot of what mets have built over the past 50yrs, no one believes anybody anymore ( except tk :)) now you got overreaction tweets that a lot of times r nothing, it’s like everyone wants your attention, and even our own push the envelope and borderline lie to get the attention of the viewer. 🙂 good day, looks chilly but no snow 🙂

  11. 2010-11 = 81.0″
    2011-12 = 9.3″
    2012-13 = 63.4″
    2013-14 = 58.9″
    2014-15 = TBD

    If you stop and think about it, 3 out of the last 4 winters of above normal snowfall is nothing to sneeze at! 😀

    The 3 consecutive winters above normal snow for Logan TK menitoned in previous blog:

    1975-76 = 46.6″
    1976-77 = 58.5″
    1977-78 = 85.1″

    The most consecutive winters with above normal snowfall for Logan is 9 (1963-1972).

    1963-64 = 63.0″
    1964-65 = 50.4″
    1965-66 = 44.1″
    1966-67 = 60.1″
    1967-68 = 44.8″
    1968-69 = 53.8″
    1969-70 = 48.8″
    1970-71 = 57.3″
    1971-72 = 47.5″

  15. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 53m53 minutes ago Boston, MA
    Event for late Thursday night into Frida am should produce wet snow, especially SE Mass. Coating to *maybe* 2″ on grass?
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    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 54m54 minutes ago Boston, MA
    Storm for early next week still a conundrum. ECMWF wants an insider runner, nothing else agrees. Both steadfast. Still time to figure it out

  16. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11m11 minutes ago
    If I read that email correctly, then me thinks GFS upgrade implementation pushed back into January #bugs

        1. Because I re-post a tweat of his, does NOT mean I agree with him. It just means that what he says I find interesting one way or the other, plus he generally has some pretty cool graphics. 😀

          1. I know. I’m just poking fun. 🙂
            You know normally I don’t bad-mouth other met’s. They really have to annoy me for that to happen. 🙂

  17. That low sun angle never fully burned off the low clouds/fog in SE Mass. Fog yes, but still cloudy. Kind of a blah weather day.

    1. I had a feeling it would happen somewhere, which is why I noted that “some areas” would see more sun than others. 😉 We have lots of sun in the NW suburbs at the moment.

  24. Sun has been out here for a couple hours after a loooong stretch of foggy weather. Just in time for the sun to go down! Say bye bye to the mild weather, nice knowing ya! 🙂

    1. Seriously folks, this system gets a bit stronger and closer with each run.

      2 inches would NOT surprise me in the slightest.
      Anyone want to go HIGHER???? 😀

      2. This is what happens when there is a reaction to a single model run (specifically NAM) regarding precip and precip type more than 24 hours in advance. Risky. 😉

          1. Given that, I AGREE 100% it tis a bit early to
            throw out that SNOW map. Can’t it wait
            until tomorrow evening????? 😆

    1. Neat looking sky/land combo late today. A little mix of late Summer look to the sky while late Autumn to the landscape.

  28. Too much dry air advancing in too rapidly on Friday morning to do much, at least Boston N & W, will be my call on this for now.

      1. Perhaps, but they are ALL trending closer and the shield moving more N&W.

        Sometimes Trend’s your friend. 😀
        Not always, unfortunately.

      1. So very minimal according to that map. Warm surface (yes it does matter especially after the last few days) and marginal conditions at the time of the event at both the surface and boundary layer.

        Also taking into account that I am nearly certain the model is overcooking precipitation slightly, not going to see all that much anywhere. I can buy a coating to 1 inch potentially in areas that maximize the potential. We’ll see where that is, if it happens.

    2. 2 mild days before the first real solid freeze will wake them up. I saw some up here recently. They’ll all be gone by middle of next week.

    2. Thanks for sharing OS!
      I haven’t followed Bernie much over the past few months, but that will certainty change going forward! I enjoy listening to Bernie’s take on winter storm potentials, which are usually pretty good.

  37. Did anyone see west minister meeting? Embarrassing! I don’t know how they can do that, it’s unconstitutional IMO 🙂

  40. Good morning all. MAP TIME. 😀

    Here is the 0Z FIM for tonight’s little event:
    Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 30km FIM_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 13 Nov 2014 – 00Z

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim_jet:&runtime=2014111300&plot_type=3hap_sfc&fcst=036&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=130&adtfn=0

    06Z regular NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014111306/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

    06Z 4Km NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111306/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_9.png

    0Z WRF-ARW CONUS Domain; 4.2km forecast grid

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2014111300/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_us_34.png

  41. SNOW MAPS for tonight/tomorrow AM

    WRF-ARW CONUS Domain; 4.2km forecast grid

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2014111300/wrf-arw_asnow_us_48.png

    NAM (North American Mesoscale Model), WRF-NMM Core; 4km forecast grid

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111306/nam4km_asnow_us_17.png

    GFS (Global Forecast System); 0.5°×0.5° forecast grid

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111306/gfs_asnow_us_9.png

    For completeness and fairness.
    Parallel GFS (Global Forecast System); 0.25°×0.25° forecast grid

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111306/gfsp_asnow_us_9.png

    In this case, I firmly believe that the new GFS is OUT TO LUNCH!

    1. I like this:

      ONE COULD MAKE THE CASE ABOUT IT BEING WARM AS OF RECENT…AND THAT GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE.
      BUT CONSIDERING THE NOCTURNAL TIMEFRAME AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY W TO E…HAVE NO DOUBT IN SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATION.

  47. WATD, 95.9 FM in Marshfield, even promoting a change to snow for Marshfield overnight with up to 2 inches of snow possible.

    The meteorologist with WATD is Rob Gilman. He has been a very accurate forecaster for all the years I’ve been listening to him.

    1. I have hear of him. Think I have heard broadcasts by him
      Was he ever at WJDA in Quincy as I “think” that is where I heard him?

  50. Whats all this nonsense about snow? I go to bed depressed thinking all we’re gonna get are lakes cutters and wasted cold and now a few inches of snow with legit snowmaps?? Must be snow season! 😀

  52. Seeing some different TV met snow maps. Some showing east-central MA with up to 2″ and coating to 1″ in east-southeast area. Some have up to 2″ inside 495 and some have up to 1″ in Boston. Depends on who you are watching when.

    1. I don’t know about Logan, but Boston Neighborhoods like JP, Brighton, W. Roxbury, Roslindale and Hyde Park will see the higher totals. I’m feeling it.

  54. Looks like a good chance at 1-3″ of snow for most of central and southern New England tonight. Not a big storm but unfavorable timing for sure. Probably gonna need the sanders out for the first time this year. Sign of the season 🙂

  55. New blog posted!
    I’ll check in mobile at times today.
    Will be around more later afternoon/tonight.

    Good day all!

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