Colder Shots

248 Comments

7:31AM

As a large scale trough centered to the west tries to press eastward at times, colder shots of air will be introduced into southeastern New England. One such shot has already arrived in the wake of yesterday’s mild air. A second shot will arrive early Friday behind a disturbance which will be in the process of rapidly developing as it moves by the area, just offshore, overnight tonight to early Friday. This will bring a period of rain changing to snow, which will not hang around long, but will produce some minor accumulation. The problem: timing. Just enough snow may accumulate on some roads to make for briefly slippery travel for the Friday morning commute. Most of the accumulation from the event will be on unpaved surfaces, where up to an inch or 2 is possible. Most areas will see less than this, and a few higher elevations can see slightly more. By later Friday morning, it’s done and offshore, leaving the remainder of the day brighter, breezy, and chilly. This represents a slightly stronger version of the disturbance than was expected yesterday. Still relatively low-impact, but given time of year and time of day, something we cannot ignore.

The remainder of the outlook is basically unchanged. Dry and chilly Saturday with high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the northeast of the region, bringing a gusty and chilly breeze across the region. Low pressure approaches later Sunday and then takes most of the day to pass through the region Monday as strung-out energy along a boundary. This still looks like largely a rain event, but some mix/snow cannot be ruled out over some interior areas so it will be watched. By Tuesday and Wednesday, a shot of the coldest air of the season so far is expected, but it may take until later Tuesday to actually arrive behind another front.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine with a few high clouds through midday then increasing high clouds and less sun later. Highs around 50. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Rain developing west to east late evening, changing to snow west to east overnight, but only mixing Cape Cod. Lows around 30 interior higher elevations, 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with snow/mix ending west to east by mid morning except later morning Cape Cod. Snow accumulation from traces to a slushy inch Cape Cod and immediate coast, around 1 to possibly 2 inches mainly unpaved surfaces elsewhere, locally over 2 inches in interior higher elevations. Sun/cloud mix remainder of day. Highs around 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain, some mix possible interior. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

248 thoughts on “Colder Shots”

      1. Where in the City? Downtown Crossing OR West Roxbury?
        Makes a huge difference.

        I’ll wager I get at least 2 inches on my from lawn in JP.

  3. i do not think this tiny little storm will be as big as they are making it. maybe an 1 with isolated 2 inch amounts there and there. sunday night through monday’s storm looks like all rain.

    1. That’s all anyone is really forecasting. I think Matt Noyes had a couple isolated areas of 3″ at most. The reason this will have more of an impact as any other 1-3″ snow event, morning commute combined with the first time people have seen snow since March. Mass hysteria will ensue on the roads tomorrow morning, always does for the first snow of the year.

  4. Snow must be coming, came into work this morning to find the snow stakes in the parking lot and walkways 😀

  7. Funny thought.

    Last evening on the 11PM broadcast, Eric predicted a LOW of 34 for Boston.
    I chuckled and said to myself, sure. More like 37 or 38.

    Low at my house was a shade over 37. 😀

  10. 5 F-15’s just passed right over my house! They were definitely lower than the 4th of July fly-over! Very cool!

  12. I am with OS I think we actually get surprised tonight and tomorrow morning. NWS had a nice write up that Storm is colliding with incoming cold air and it could enhance snowfall, at least it’s something to track. Minor storm but fun nonetheless.

  14. I had a feeling I’d be able to see them from my house – they’re about 25 minute behind schedule, but well worth the wait!

  15. We are all waiting outside my company in Walpole, about 5 miles from Norwood airport and have not seen or heard them yet. I heard they changed their flight plan and will not go to Norwood

  18. What kind of snowfall rates are we looking at for tonight? That to me is a huge factor in determining how much actually accumulates

    2. Loads of factors:

      Warm ground (although will be cooling off over night)
      Warm boundary layer that has to be cooled off
      What is the intensity of precip?
      What is the ratio?
      What is the total qpf and how much of it as snow?

      Most models prog total qpf to be .25 to max of .5 or thereabouts.

      SREF says ration is 5:1

      So given that, even without losing any to rain or cooling the surface that
      would be only and inch or 2.

      However, some model have a higher qpf and the NWS in their discussion had
      indicated that they expected a rapid cool down of the boundary layer. SREF
      has a maximum potential of 1+ inch qpf over Eastern Mass if ALL develops according to Max potential. Not the forecast. More like the top end
      of that NWS experimental snow map. Bottom 10%, forecast, and top 10%.

      SO, there is “some” potential for higher amounts.

      My forecast is for a general 1-3 inches with the possibility of isolated higher
      totals. SUBJECT to change of course.

  19. Flyover never made it down as far as Norwood airport and Gillette stadium. Went straight to the Cape. Must have changed their flight plan. Disappointed 🙁

    1. AceMaster, I know that they were about 25 minutes behind schedule, so that may have had something to do with the change in flight plan. Sorry you didn’t get to see them.

      1. I knew you’d be on that.
        Auto correct told me I wanted to type NESN and “fixed” it. Before I even had a chance to edit, there you were. 😛

  22. 10AM at Boston:

    Temperature: 45.0 °F (7.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 26.1 °F (-3.3 °C)

    That dew point WILL be key when the precip starts tonight around 11PM or Midnight.
    😀

    1. Too see the effects of Altitude:

      10AM Worcester OBS

      Temperature: 39.0 °F (3.9 °C)
      Dewpoint: 24.1 °F (-4.4 °C

  23. From NWS office, Gray ME

    POCKETS OF HIGHER QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND DURATION OF FORCING AND ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH THAT COULD BE PRESENT.

    So Mr. NORLUN “may” pay us a visit late tonight and tomorrow AM???? 😆

  25. Even though the times of colder temps through the end of the month won’t be anything earth shattering here, the rest of the country is seeing some historic early season cold and snow. No, its not unusual for cold and snow this time of year, but the magnitude in some parts of the country is impressive. Records broken for earliest snow, heaviest snow, coldest temps, etc.

    1. Casper Wyoming got to 26 Below shattering the ALL TIME November Record
      of -20. And that was done on 11/11 or 11/12. Pretty impressive.

      Cold here is almost laughable!!!! 😆

  27. Bernie Rayno’s today feelings on the Monday event. He thinks it will be a bigger snow producer than models are depicting. 😀

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 46s47 seconds ago
    Finally an update on next week. Think this will end being a bigger snow producer than models showing. Recording

      2. I LOVE that show but would have never remembered that. Good one, OS, and laughed out loud at the clip.

        Sue I think I would love to live there!

    1. Without any cold high to the north and this still November, I don’t see a lot of snow even in the northern mountains. NWS says it depends on how quick secondary develops.

  31. Hey OS,

    Regarding meteorologist Rob Gilman, wasn’t he also on WRKO for awhile as well years ago (1980s/90s)? A name I haven’t heard in years. I figured he long since retired, but it is good that he is still on the air.

    2. I was just gonna say, is 48 the new 90?? I will say, the sun is still strong and the ground will retain this through the night. This is bad if u want snow to accumulate into marginally cold air and questionable intensity

      1. I don’t care one way or the other if it snows in November anyway, as long as it snows from December through March (and April if possible). 🙂

  36. Some ahole talking head on CNBC just commented with a serious face that he was hoping we’d never hear from the “polar vortex” again after last year.

    You can’t make it up. I’m not even safe watching business news.

    1. Even Mac groans when he hears the terms. Al Roker cannot say it enough in the morning….to the point where I may switch to Good Morning America. On another note, they are sending Dylan everywhere that weather is happening and I love seeing her in the public eye as much as she is.

  37. Cold air is now and forever a polar vortex. No wonder why people are so cranky by the time they’re 90. They can’t take the b.s. anymore! I’m 43 – looks like I’ve got a lot more annoyances coming my way still………God willing. LOL.

        1. Sorry but TWC naming Winter storms has put me over
          the edge. I won’t watch that piece of crap channel.

    3. Ok, been thinking….

      We are a progressive lot here at WHW so I think it’s only fair that warm air gets a new name too. We can’t just single out cold air.

      I’m proposing that from now on we eliminate “Warmer Air”, “return flow”, “Bermuda High” and “Warm Sector” and change it to “Subtropical Vortex”.

      Don’t laugh, I’m gonna use it from now on so get on board. I’m going to fight nonsense with nonsense!

      1. Well, I think I see the subtropical vortex building off the US east coast in about 10 days on the latest 12z EURO.

        1. I’ve been seeing hints of that for awhile now.
          OH crap, it’s supposed to be COLD until early December!!!

          Right and I’m Santa Claus. No wait I was him before.
          I’m the Easter Bunny. Nope been that. I must be the
          tooth fairy then!

        1. It is under 32F in Buffalo, so that, and what the temp must be a few thousand feet above the surface must be quite a temp differential vs the lake temp.

    2. I’m thinking maybe the stuff in south central PA and western Virginia is more critical to seeing how much precip we get overnight and how much is left when the column is cold enough.

  40. Not for nothing, but the HRRR does NOT appear to be on board
    for a 1-3 inch general snowfall. It still has it raining in Easter sections at 4AM.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014111317/t3/ptyp_t3sfc_f15.png

    AND reflectivity does not look so strong either:

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014111317/t3/1ref_t3sfc_f15.png

    I don’t know. I’m getting jittery about this. I thought for sure the HRRR would
    be on board. NOPE!

    1. I dont know …. I think it looks in line with what would be reasonably expected. A few to several hours of light precipitation with a burst or two of moderate precip here and there.

  42. TOM here is our answer, courtesy of the Buffalo Office of NWS:

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/…
    AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON…OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES
    DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO…WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE DISORGANIZED SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. OFF LAKE ERIE…A BROAD REGION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE EASTWARD TO CATTARAUGUS AND WYOMING COUNTIES…WHILE OFF LAKE ONTARIO A SIMILARLY BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDS FROM THE TUG HILL
    REGION NORTHWARD ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

      1. This is the way i see it. This really is a high variability situation. We could end up with nothing, and we could end up with 4.” The most likely scenario is 1-2.” This way, people cant say, “well, the map said 1″ for my town and we got 4″ or the map said 1″ and we got nothing, what do those guys know.”

      2. I just think it lets people know how challenging forecasting is and how easily one little variable can change a forecast from no snow to 4″ of snow. Id rather this than have them adjusting the map as the snow is falling which is a blatant admission the forecast was wrong. Unfortunately, weather is not black or white, as much as we demand it, this method allows for the gray areas.

  46. It is 49 here with filtered sun. I tried to sit out for a while and read but even for me it got chilly. Tom and others often compare the sun’s power to opposite months. What would November’s equate to in Spring? Not April, I think because even at the beach last April I could sit out for extended periods and the sun felt hot.

    2. One relationship to start from ….

      Sept 22nd = March 20th.

      So, we are nearly 2 months beyond Sept 22nd, thus it equates to 2 months earlier than March 20th, etc ………

      1. Thanks, Tom. No wonder the sun had literally no warming effect. I kept thinking if I sat there long enough it would eventually feel warm.

        Also, as JJ said, it feels like snow even though the temp is still up in the 40s. It has that dry, chilled bone feel. Yay

    3. Believe it or not, though the atmosphere and surface air havent responded, the mid April sun is equal to the mid August sun and thats why on a chilly April day, you can sit in the sun, unfortunately, you can get quite a sunburn !!

  49. I can understand why some get upset with forecasts. Eric had a great blog (as usual). As part of it, he noted that the snow would stick more on grassy surfaces, etc. for the reasons also given on this blog. Then along comes a headline stating that Snow might impact morning commute. One blogger asked if it had changed and would not stick on roads or if that report was to scare them.

    Again, I blame the management as I know they love teasers in between reports and as headlines.

  51. 3 PM Boston

    Temperature: 47.0 °F (8.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 28.9 °F (-1.7 °C)

    Worcester

    Temperature: 44.0 °F (6.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 21.9 °F (-5.6 °C)

    That dew point differential is meaningful

  54. Still think 1-3 is a decent forecast for the region. DP is 29 so colum should cool enough. Keep in mind if we get greater then 1 inch of snow its two weeks head of schedule. Again it’s only Nov 13th and we are tracking a minor storm, I am just enjoying following it. Not expecting much but still enjoying the pre game.

    1. Everything I look at suggests the column will cool rapidly, yet the HRRR
      stubbornly maintains RAIN for a long time. At least 4 hours after onset.

      I don’t feel comfortable relying only on the NAM. I saw support from the FIM and the GEM is in the middle. GSF??? Who knows about that piece of crap
      and which one? Regular or Faux enhanced????

      1. The 12Z FIM is available now and looks like 06Z run
        Experimental FIM Model Fields
        Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 13 Nov 2014 – 12Z

        06Z tomorrow

        http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014111312/130/3hap_sfc_f018.png
        Surface at 12Z tomorrow:

        925 MB temperature at 06Z

        http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014111312/130/temp_925_f018.png

        http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014111312/130/3hap_sfc_f024.png

        Total precip

        http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014111312/130/totp_sfc_f048.png

        About .5 inch qpf in Eastern Sections. How much falls as SNOW?

        This FIM run STRONGLY suggests a RAPID changeover to SNOW such that the bulk of the precip falls as SNOW.

        What to believe? What to believe??

        My GUT and experience with other similar situations,
        suggests the rapid changeover and mostly snow, however that is no guarantee. 😀

  58. Once this minor event is over attention turns to Sunday night Monday
    NWS out of Upton, NY take
    SUNDAY – MONDAY…THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
    DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING
    AROUND AN AMPLIFYING DIGGING POLAR VORTEX WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES.

    INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD MODERATE
    PRECIPITATION EVENT OF AT LEAST 1/2 TO 1 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF
    PRECIP. PRECIP TYPE ALONG THE COAST…INCLUDING METRO NJ / NYC/ LONG
    ISLAND AND COASTAL CT WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER…AREAS N AND W OF NYC
    INCLUDING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT…LIGHT SNOW
    AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN MIGHT OCCUR THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING
    RUSH HOUR. STAY TUNED FOR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

      1. Someone coined this term and it was not I. I think it may have
        been TK, but it is apropos.

        MODEL MAYHEM

  60. The cold front that passed through last night was not an Arctic front. In fact there never really will be a true Arctic front with this colder trend until probably late Tuesday of next week. We have talked about this coming in stages. It’s not a super blast of cold air all at once.

    1. And it won’t ever be this month. 😀

      I heard METS on TV describe it as an Arctic front, which was a JOKE!!!!
      Not saying you did.

      All of the hype has a been a joke. Sure it was cold out West, but not here
      and it was NEVER going to be really cold here. Not even next week.
      Worst case next week highs in the mid-upper 30s? I can remember high temperatures near 40 late in october. No big deal. Not in the slightest around here.

      1. Oh I know you were not saying that it was I that said it. 🙂

        Just pointing it out as general info. There is a whole lot of speaking in media without actually studying how things are going to play out. The axis of this trough never gets to the East Coast as an amplified feature. That keeps the worst of the cold west and north of here, and also prevents a true blast, though there will be a pseudo-blast late Tuesday when we finally get a boundary through here with the coldest of the air we are going to see right behind it. November 19 will be our coldest day.

    1. That set-up is not really that exciting but there will be some frozen stuff somewhere inland from the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast. The big cities will be wet on that one.

      1. I’m with you on this one. Best chance would be a “possible”
        change over at tail end. And this is just an IF

  63. Still feeling ok about the forecast for the imminent event. I think we’ll see a lot more 1 inch amounts versus 2 inch amounts. No surprises in store with this one I’m afraid. Too fast-moving and dry air eating into the back edge of it in a rapid fashion tomorrow morning. We should be sunny everywhere except Cape Cod by 9AM.

    We will see below normal temps this weekend and for a good portion of next week, but I’m going to ease my foot off the gas slightly on the magnitude of the coldest, and even moreso on the length of the below normal temperature pattern. I did not fully buy into it lasting long term. A little colder than I had expected..yes..thanks to the “re-invention” of the pattern spurred on by the Super Typhoon’s interaction with the mid-latitudes. But the long term pattern is what it is. Might see a couple of anomalously mild/warm days just before Thanksgiving. I don’t see us plunging into any lasting cold after that either.

    1. Yup, however, they say this as well:

      THIS EVENT CAN STILL BE A BUST POTENTIAL. IF TEMPERATURES WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OR THE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH DOESNT LINE UP…TOTALS COULD BE LESS THAN FORECASTED

  68. I think I’ll be issuing an update a bit later tonight and cutting back slightly on amounts. This is not going to come together to maximum potential. I’m regretting I even upped my amounts at all this morning. At least it wasn’t too much of an adjustment.

    DT had a nice write-up on his page today. I don’t always agree with what he says of course but I believe he’s pretty much spot-on regarding the current to medium range pattern.

  76. This is not early at all. The air at mid levels just below the cloud base is very dry, and it’s also fairly dry at the surface. This will fall into dry air with very little reaching the ground for a couple hours. It’s all right on track.

  77. One concern I have is some of the steadiest and most moderate precipitation taking place just too far east and just ahead of the cold air. May limit snow totals.

  78. Groton CT with light rain and Pittsfield MA with light snow are about the only 2 places it’s reaching the ground right now. 😉

  84. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 49s50 seconds ago
    At 9pm Worcester now reporting light snow, too! Temps cooling into the 30s. Will get slick overnight.

  85. 45.1 here. I figure it will drop to around 40 when rain really gets going. We’ll see how
    fast it drops after that. 😀

  86. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher now18 seconds ago
    Didn’t I tell ya once it dropped below 37º it would start snowing? 🙂 Evaporative cooling at work tonight.

    1. It’s moving NE right now, not E. That won’t take place until around dawn. Also, if you are looking from the radar based near Taunton you need to look further W. There is more precipitation west of Albany.

  98. Just NOT enough intensity to the rain to bring the temperature down quick enough.
    43.0 here now. Steady light rain only.

  99. It may be my eyes, but it “appears” that there is MUCH Eastward movement
    to the radar echoes. Exit stage right????

  100. Rain intensity has picked up a bit. Temp down to 42.8
    I swear I see an occasional wet snow flake mixed in. probably wishful thinking. 😀

    1. It is, but that is what I had described would be happening. It’s still going to take until between 6AM & 8AM to reach the coast. Most of the snow (and again not all that much) will be in the 3AM to shortly after dawn time frame.

  103. OS I do too, very faint but I can see it. I huge outdoor light that is my “snow light” and I see some wet flakes in there.

  104. I could be wrong and maybe my eyes and brain communicating. My brain is hoping for one thing so it’s telling my eyes. Not the first time my brain isn’t working 🙂

  106. 38.7 still rain here. Good night. I hope to “peek” out sometime during the night and see
    snow. I suspect when I get up it’s all over.

  108. Changed to snow around 1AM in Woburn (mixed before that). As of 2:45AM we have about 1/2 inch of slushy snow on UNPAVED surfaces. Nothing on any pavement – just wet. No surprise. One more burst coming through pre-dawn that may slush up some pavement. No more than 1 inch will be my total. Very minor event. Should be sunny in the NW suburbs by 9AM if not a little before…later toward SE MA & the Cape.

  109. It’s 3 AM and snowing at a light -moderate rate in Newton. Ground is covered but hard surfaces are not.

  111. Good morning. Too little too late as per usual.
    TK was all over this one. I went in the Crapper again. 😀

    Had a little burst of decent snow while ago.

    Snowing now, but no great shakes. Car tops have some slushy snow but ground is NOT white. Much much much LESS than I expected to see. Big disappointment.

    Let’s see HOW MUCH it warms up after this PRETEND COLD shot coming. 😆

    JOKERAMA!!!!!

  115. Snow just about ready to Quit. The Snow on 11/2 was MORE impressive here. At least from what I have seen. 😀

  118. For the next one around Monday

    FIM

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim9_jet:&runtime=2014111400&plot_type=3hap_sfc&fcst=096&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=130&adtfn=0

    Parallel GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111406/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

    Regular GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014111406/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111400/gem_mslp_pcpn_us_17.png

    1. Seems pretty much what I saw predicted. Spencer got 2. We have a covering on open grassy surfaces but nothing below trees or any form of light shelter

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