The Week Ahead

85 Comments

11:07PM

The week starts wet, then goes cold, and ends with a milder trend getting underway.

Low pressure will ride up the East Coast Monday but the center of it will likely cut inland and put southeastern MA and RI into a warm sector with lots of wind by late Monday. But any warm air that floods up into that region will not hang around long, for as that low pulls away by early Tuesday, it will drag a cold front through followed by a secondary trough, with lots of wind and a significant temperature drop during Tuesday. The core of this cold will be here on Wednesday, a dry day with well below normal temperature. A disturbance will pass through during Thursday with a few clouds and perhaps a snow shower, but it looks like it will be a fast-moving, moisture-starved system, serving to just reinforce the cold (and more wind) for Friday. Once we reach the weekend, in some ways it may resemble the weekend that’s just ending, with a breezy, bright, cold Saturday, and a milder Sunday with somewhat less sunshine. This will be signaling a significant change in the pattern as we head toward Thanksgiving week, but more will be said about this in the next few days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as brief snow/ice north central MA and southwestern NH. Midnight to 3AM lows 30-40 from NW to SE with a slight rise in temperature toward dawn. Wind calm then becoming light SE to S.
MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Patchy fog. Temperatures rising to 45-55, mildest southeastern MA and RI. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, gusting over 20 MPH especially southeastern MA and RI.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with best chance of rain north central MA to south central NH and a few rain showers elsewhere through early evening, then a band of showers and possible thunderstorms sweeping west to east through the region late evening and offshore overnight, clouds breaking as rain ends. Temperatures rising to 55-65 most areas, warmest southeastern MA and RI, into late evening before falling back through the 40s to 30s overnight from west to east. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts over southeastern MA and RI before shifting to W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts all areas overnight.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s through midday then falling through 30s. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Passing snow shower? Low 25. High 40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 50.

85 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

      1. Ace Wind not Expected until this evening, IF it gets into Eastern MA???? We shall see. Depends upon how far West Low tracks.

  3. Thank you TK

    I enjoy days like this.

    I posted the snow predictions I have recorded on the contest page. Please let me know if I missed your estimate or if you didn’t predict yet and would like to

  4. Thank you TK for the update and your Winter Forecast. You came in much higher
    than I thought you might. It will be interesting to watch the Winter unfold and see
    how it all pans out.

    Not much we can do about it one way or the other.

  5. The Big Mean Gray Machine rolled last night.
    Awesome game. Other than 2 bone-head tosses by Brady an Excellent
    performance and TEAM win!!!! I loved it! Fantastic.

    So for the tough 6 game stretch, so far the Pats are 3-0. Not too shabby.

    I still think that Green Bay is the only one of the 6 that presents a real problem.
    Rogers has been on FIRE. That game will be well worth the price of admission!!!

  7. 12Z NAM has surface wind at 30 mph with gusts to 50+ mph this evening over
    Eastern and SE MA up to the Boston Area. High wind warning likely to be extended
    Farther Northwestward than previously indicated?

  8. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 37m37 minutes ago
    Early call on Thanksgiving (Day 11…just off my 10-day) is mid-40s, based upon 75% chance New England is storm-free
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    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 38m38 minutes ago
    Right now, it looks like the exceptionally mild stretch next week would end just prior to Thanksgiving.
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    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 38m38 minutes ago
    First half of next week, the 10-day I just tweeted shows 58° as a New England average, but some 60s possible!
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    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 39m39 minutes ago
    After signals of this incoming cold air several days out, now equally strong signal of pre-Thanksgiving warmth.

  11. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 13m13 minutes ago
    Also, Environment Canada upgrades their Global deterministic, ensembles and regional models tomorrow at 12z.
    #cornucopia
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    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 13m13 minutes ago
    Upgraded GFS 12z will be late from NCEP.

  16. I moved several to the contest page. Please make sure I confirmed that I saw your post and have it recorded.

    1. That is the result of the flip in the pattern that will put us on the milder side (overall) from Thanksgiving week into the first third of December.

      1. I understand that. I was totally being flippant as I do NOT
        like that at all. 😀 I despise Lakes Cutters! I can’t stand them.
        They should be OUTLAWED!!!

        I also understand that storms have to track differently to balance
        out precipitation. 😀 It is what it is.

        1. I love Lakes Cutters and this is the reason: I love frontal passages and air mass changes. It was my second obsession that got me into weather, tornadoes being the first.

  18. Thanks TK for posting your Winter 2014-15 Forecast! 🙂

    I do find it interesting though that you forecast more snow come February when it will be the mildest of the three (D-J-F). I always have a hard time associating an above normal pattern with snowfall. I suspect it will be an interesting winter around here as always.

    1. Too much NAO in January – storms go south.
      February can be milder than normal and still snowy. Just like some months can be cold but have rain because of brief warm-ups with storms. Just depends on each particular set-up and the cumulative result of all of them. 🙂

    1. Latest observations to our SW show very little wind.

      11.5 mph at islip, 6 mph at montauk. So where is it?

    1. It may get that far north but it wouldn’t surprise me if it fell just shy. There is only going to be a narrow area and short time frame in the warm sector where those winds can reach the surface. The watches/warnings for the wind are warranted, IMO. Good job by the NWS preventing people from being caught off-guard by what may be a very short-lived but powerful burst of wind gusts.

  22. Haven’t been posting much. Very busy at work. And also doing some work-related traveling.

    I think we all have to get used to this weather pattern, which I’m not thrilled with, because it will likely persist: Brief cold shots, followed by lakes cutters that provide both wind and rain, with some muted cold air behind the storms. We haven’t had a winter like this in a while, but I can remember quite a few winters in the past in which rain (and not snow) was the norm. My guess is the drought that we had been experiencing for quite some time will be history soon, and we may actually have a surplus of water to contend with by January.

  23. Can’t precisely recall my snow prediction from last month, but I believe I said 19 inches. I will stick to that, and hope I’m completely wrong!

    1. I wonder IF it will break any records?

      I don’t think so, but who knows. Oswego, NY has 6 feet in one event before.
      It averages 141 inches per year situated on the Eastern Shore of Lake Ontario.

      Here are some images. Not sure IF from that record event, but you get the idea:

      http://wlusidelines.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/oswego-snow.jpg

      http://www2.apwa.net/images/Publications/Reporter/Oswego%20Snowblower.jpg

      http://files.www.fleetfeetsyracuse.com/Newsletter/images/feb11.2013/6.jpg

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/locust/EventSnowfall_2007_02_03.gif

  25. Call it a hunch but I think the warm sector may not make it much further north than Plymouth. And if there are going to be damaging winds it will be south and east of a Providence-to-Plymouth line, along with torrential downpours and possible thunder. Some heavier rain and possible thunder elsewhere too, but without the potentially powerful wind gusts.

        1. That convective line looks to make it just about to boston.
          Not sure IF that is where the wind will be or not?

          1. Close call. Bending up just a bit, maybe the southern suburbs. Sometimes the convective line is a little further north into the cool air because of warm air just off the ground.

      1. Watch for that line approaching and let us know IF
        you get any significant wind gusts. I for one will be curious to
        know. Tx

  26. I never thought wa front would make it up here regardless of the models said. Any glad freeze to worry about tonight?

  28. Convective line past Worcester and rapidly approaching Boston.
    Vicki should be near or just past you. Anything?

  30. Did anyone know that Boston and Providence are only 49 miles away from each other and around 8 inches on average less falls in Providence. 41.9 in Boston and 33.8 in Providence. Taunton averages 37.7 inches per winter. Interesting 🙂

      1. 43.8″ to be exact! 🙂

        Charlie’s numbers for Providence and Taunton are correct. I find it interesting that Charlie’s numbers for Boston (Logan) specifically are always off. 😉

      3. My point is theres a bigger difference than one might think, kinda like Nantucket where they average only around 6-8 inches for an entire winter season 🙂

        2. Actually from a couple of web sources it looks like Nantucket averages around 26-29 inches a year. Still looking to find a more official average.

          1. I found 26.19 in avg per year. Everything else I find is right around that…Charlie. Where DO you get your numbers ?

  32. Well this confirms the WINDS will be with that convective line:

    Eric Fisher retweeted
    Steve Gencarelle ‏@steveginx 11m11 minutes ago
    Squall line winds 69.5 top of 185 ft top of Obs tower Mashantucket Pequot Museum not my temp spelling ha @ericfisher

  36. Cape Cod is gonna get nailed with wind. Confined to there pretty much. Rest of area lucked out down there that the winds didn’t mix down because they are pretty potent.

  40. Boston never got into the warm air today. The Logan 9:00 pm obs is 44 and the high was only 48.

    As of 9:00 pm obs:

    Marshfield = 61
    Blue Hill = 50 (just barely into the warmth??)

  41. Had to drive down to Tarrytown, NY today for work. Poured the whole way down. Miserable day weatherwise

  43. All in all, system behaved as expected. The wildcard was the extent of the brief warmth and the potential for wind. Stayed far to the SE but did flood into Cape Cod. Now it’s all about to move away and here comes cold/windy/mainly dry weather for 5 days, then a big pattern change that comes very quickly but lingers for 2 or 3 weeks, this one mild and drier than average. No that does not mean every day will be dry and mild. It means overall dry and mild. There will be shots of chilly air and some precipitation. We’re in the jet stream zone. 😉

    New blog has been posted!

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