Cold & Dry Into The Weekend

108 Comments

2:00AM

The next push of early-season Arctic air will arrive later today as a cold front comes through, announcing itself only by way of a gusty breeze. And yes it is Arctic air, by definition, based on its origin. Keep in mind the time of year and that the magnitude of the cold is relative to the season. The core of this push of cold air will cross southeastern New England Friday, which will be bright but breezy and quite cold. We are still looking at a moderating trend for the weekend with a sunny Saturday and less-bright Sunday, a much milder by wet (at times) Monday, then a few rain showers but continued mild Tuesday as a cold front approaches. By Wednesday, this front will be pushing offshore and we cool to near seasonable levels with dry weather for the day-before-Thanksgiving travel. A sneak peek ahead based on reliable guidance indicates a dry and cool Thanksgiving holiday. A more comprehensive outlook for travel and holiday weekend weather will be posted in a couple days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Early clouds depart Cape Cod, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty shifting to W during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows around 20 northwest of Boston to around 30 Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

108 thoughts on “Cold & Dry Into The Weekend”

  5. Thanks TK !

    In the short term, I am thankful for the coming moderation in temps starting Sunday.

    I’m not sure about everyone’s electric provider, but NStar Electric rates are proposed to go up by some ridiculous amount of 29%, I think it is.

    The last few days, I know our heat has been on a fair amount of the time, just to keep the house around 65F. So, I’m looking forward to next Monday and Tuesday, when perhaps, we can keep the heat off all day.

  6. WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 2h2 hours ago
    Big MJO signal developing over the Western Hemisphere with eastward propagation across the Indian Ocean next 2 weeks

    What does this mean for us?

    The literature on MJO is complicated. I “think” it means more storminess for
    the US West Coast, but I am just not sure how it translates for us.

    IF it were a split jet with the Northern Stream supplying COLD for us and the Southern Stream the moisture it would get interesting. Sure that’s not the case.

    Anyone?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B24l9rrIIAAQmil.jpg

    1. Fluctuating temps yes but milder overall. There will still be cold shots but of less magnitude than current cold.

  9. CPC has updated forecast and now calls for equal chance of average temps and slightly above average precip. This is a change from orevious outlook.

  11. Good morning and thanks tk 🙂 working away in a rather nice day, truck says 47 degrees, thought it would have been cooler than this but we will take it, 3-4 weeks of work left and done 🙂 good day everyone 🙂

  12. i heard the news this morning say that people in the Midwest have a high chance of a white Christmas compared to the east. What you concur TK? Or is this just a prediction gone wrong? Thank you!!

  13. Today’s high still below normal but “less cold” than the past 2 days. The word milder is becoming a pet peeve of mine 👿

  14. Sunsets are about as early as they get, maybe a few more min’s earlier, but begin setting a min later starting in 2 weeks, from 4:12 to 4:13pm lol, we making headway, (kidding) 🙂

  16. LeGarrette Blount, who was released earlier this week by the Steelers, is set to sign with the Patriots, according to ESPN’s Josina Anderson.

    3. Saw that before, but it is AWESOME! Thanks for sharing.

      4AM this morning, Buffalo itself had Thunder Snow with heavy snow.

  21. CPC’s December and seasonal outlooks remain largely unchanged from last month, again no surprise here. A little extra interpretation is required for these maps and basically what they say is essentially what is in the Winter Outlook posted here a few days ago.

    Also, you can infer with a significant area of below normal precipitation predicted for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, we’re probably seeing the beginnings of the expanding drought in the Northeast heading into Spring/Summer 2015. I think some locations are going to be seeing significant drought for much of next year.

    1. After Philip’s comment yesterday on normal vs average, I am more aware of it. I am not sure I understand it. To me normal is the way it is supposed to be and average is all numbers averaged. Average makes it clear to me that 51 for this time of year means there are many days above and many days below as opposed to how folks think it should be.

      What am I missing.

      PS I noticed JR uses normal also and one other I saw today but can’t remember name.

      1. Its been a long time since stats class but here goes. There are also things like standard deviation. In most cases when u see an average temp for a particular day all the temperatures for that day each year for say the past 100 years are averaged in the traditional way (added together and divided by the number of years), but we all know the temps fluctuate from day to day. To determine the significance of a daily “departure from this average,” otherwise known as standard deviation, another formula is used. Using all the entries, you can come up with a temperature range that is “normal” for that day, meaning the majority of that range is used to come up with the average. Anything above or below that range is considered statistically significant. Take this week’s colder temps. I don’t know the exact ranges, but I would bet daytime highs in the mid 30s vs. an average of around 50 is indeed statistically significant.

        1. Take a look at this graph for monthly average highs for Montreal…

          https://plot.ly/~etpinard/76/fig-21-montreal-1981-2010-daily-average-temperature-and-standard-deviation.png

          Notice the solid bar is the average temp. Now notice the little double sided “T” at the top and bottom of the bars. That is the standard deviation. Temp points beyond the solid bar but within the T arent considered statistically significant. Only temps past the T’s are significant.

          1. Excellent Ace. And makes absolute sense and is exactly what I was missing. Thank you. I’m afraid that seems to escape the “normal” brain however that believes a normal of 51 means something lower never happens.

  22. **NOTE**
    Don’t buy today’s 12z ECMWF fully. Too amplified and too much cold in the Northeast at the end of November. There probably will be a cold shot around then, briefly, but not to the magnitude of what is being experienced now (yesterday & tomorrow here).

    1. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 3m3 minutes ago
      late next wk just looks dangerous..cold air coming in, front stalled along the coast. would not take much for storm. may have to start video

      1. Yeah I’m not going there right now.
        These people are too quick to jump on one run, or a couple runs, way far out. It’s about trends and model behavior.

        I’m still waiting for that perfectly set-up Northeaster on November 17. Oh wait, it didn’t happen. 😛

        1. No, It didn’t and NOT even I expected that.

          WHY do these supposed professionals jump all
          over these things?

          I hate to say it, but Eric appeared to take the leap
          last evening.

          The GFS has been hinting for many runs now, so in fairness I don’t think you can say one run, however,
          there doesn’t seem to be any model agreement.
          So they take their favorite run (wishcast) and go with it?

          Then I’d be going with last night’s FIM for the 29th. 😆

          I dunno. It gets frustrating if you let it bother you.

          Currently I am in the mode of looking for a feature to show up for several runs AND also looking for that feature to show up across different model suites.

          Have NOT seen it as of yet.

          TK we all have learned so much from you.
          GET ALL OF THE INFORMATION BEFORE LEAPING. 😀

          We shall see and continue to watch.

          Again, I want to point out…..
          When I post these nuggets from others and various maps, it DOES NOT mean that I fully endorse then or
          agree.

          IF I want to comment about them one way or another
          I certainly do so. BUT most of the time, I’m just passing it along for something else to think about.

          Cheers

          1. Thanks OS. 🙂

            I’m not ever saying I am right all the time. I have missed my fair share of medium range hints. But lately I feel like I have a handle on the pattern so I’m just going with what I see here. I respect all of these professionals and even the non-met’s who at least declare themselves to be just that (provided they are not pulling the wool over the public’s eyes). There are some great met’s out there with excellent track records.

            I’ve just not been a fan of the “jump on it” or “report it first” mentality that seems to have permeated all aspects of media in the last few years. Call me old school, but I still think there is a better way than how it’s being done right now.

            Everybody seems to have this drastic need to know what’s happening in 7, 10, or 14 days, while forgetting that tomorrow is coming a lot sooner than any of those days. 🙂

  23. over all pattern. cool dry shots, then storm tracks up through midwest, great lakes. Mainly rain events some snow northern new england. through mid december basically what we have been seeing latly

  24. I just knew the pats would grab him. Blount back with a two year deal . Really good move by the pats, real good. This guy can run the ball. If pats can stay healthy look out !!!

      1. he wanted to run, the problem was that the steelers were not using him. and he was getting tired of it.

        1. If he is at the bottom of the Pats depth chart, which he should be, i see the same issues here as he had there. Pats would be crazy to put him anywhere near the top of their depth chart. The only guy he might be ahead of is Bolden, he sucks

  25. Has anyone see any Lake Effect snow totals for today.
    Buffalo NWS expecting 1-2 feet with up to 3 feet in isolated areas.
    Expecting snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour.

    On radar, the band looks very intense to me.

    Curious to see totals so far.

  26. Just heard that Buffalo is under a state of emergency.
    Their football game on Sunday is NOT going to happen, imho.

      1. NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 29s30 seconds ago
        It seems as if this picture is from Austria, and not from the Great Lakes Region. Thank you to @wxdam for clarifying!

      2. I don’t even know how to react to that picture except horror and disbelief and sadness for the people living there. I love snow and a big storm but what they are experiencing is heartwrenching

  27. Bernie won’t let go!!!

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 7m7 minutes ago
    just think the ingredients r there late nxt wk.front side of cold push as energy drops in behind it. watch models change with this each day

  28. I like this:

    Eric Fisher retweeted
    Stephen Colbert ‏@StephenAtHome Nov 18
    Global warming isn’t real because I was cold today! Also great news: World hunger is over because I just ate.

  29. Eric Fisher retweeted
    CBS Evening News ‏@CBSEveningNews 4m4 minutes ago
    JUST IN: Sunday’s Jets-Bills game will not be played in Buffalo. New location is TBD -@gregaiello

      1. Of course. Wonder where they will play?
        Cleveland?
        Baltimore?
        new jersey?
        Toronto?
        Montreal? Nah it WILL be in the US
        Foxboro? Nope we have a game
        Detroit would make some sense.

  30. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 54s54 seconds ago
    band of lake effect (Erie) just as impressive as round 1. unofficial reports of 37″ today in East Aurora just east of Orchard park.

  31. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 2m2 minutes ago
    Hamburg, NY is now up to 79.5″ of snow for the week! Taller than Gronk, and still dumping snow.

  32. If I were the lead person of a climate change group (and I’m not), I think I’d be debating internally whether or not to add this lake effect event to the list as exhibit 2,547 for global climate change.

    1. There have actually been lake events of this magnitude before, which many less cameras and reporters nearby, and a little further from a major city.

      The magnitude is due to the time of year and intensity of the early cold combined with the lake water that is warmer than it would be in 2 weeks or through December.

      It’s just a low percentage lake event. Most of them happen after this, with cooler water, and air a little less departed from average.

  33. NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 9s10 seconds ago
    #Wales New York is now up to 85 Inches of #Snow!!!!! Unbelievable!

  34. Every once in a while, events that take place regularly will take place on a larger magnitude than we see most of the time. This is what is going on in western NY. Early cold, warm water. You have the maximum of both ends of the spectrum. Of course something big is going to result!

    I’m not happy with the media somehow managing to overdo even what is an epic event. They still have to make it sound like “something is wrong”. I have news for them. NOTHING is wrong. It’s WEATHER, morons.

    1. It’s out of control TK.

      We exist because of the variability, unpredictability and boundary pushing of nature IMHO. Without the constant mixing of all that exists, at all “extremes”, we’re not here. Without “Global Warming” and “Polar Vortexes”, over eons, Al Gore wouldn’t be here to complain about it.

      Had to let that out lol.

    3. the global climate change is overplayed, no doubt about that.

      With that said, lets not forget how this particular event evolved …

      Super typhoon (ok, that’s a norm in that part of the world), evolves into a 925 mb low (ok, much more of a rare event), which then shapes the jet stream into diving very far south and pouring all kinds of unseasonably cold air into the country.

      I agree that its not 100% known that humans or CO2 had any effect on that.

      In return though, its not 100% known that they didn’t. Do we know for sure that if we were at 325 ppm of CO2, as opposed to 400 ppm, that this would have happened ?

      That’s all.

      The real settling of this debate will be seen and known by those who are living about 200 years from now.

      1. Since very similar events have taken place at various times through our recorded weather history, I’d say they will take place regardless of the CO2 level. Just a scientific hypothesis. 🙂

      2. Tom, well stated. And only humans can believe that what they have done to this planet has no affect. As I have said …change is cyclical. Add the pollution to the mix and well, you are right, decades down the road will tell. Unfortunately, common sense dictates that regardless we stop polluting……sadly, common sense went out the window years ago.

  36. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 19s20 seconds ago
    Orchard Park, NY has seen another 23″ of snow today. This job isn’t getting any easier. #Bills

  37. We got a few nicer days coming in the next week, the weekend looks ok but cold, Tuesday I think will be the nicer day where close to 60 degrees and some sun, we shall see, Happy Thanksgiving!! Dec 1st is next Monday!! Times flying 🙂

    Tk how many 50+ degree days on average in Dec? Thank you in advance 🙂

    1. Depends on your persistent pattern but with average high temps in the 40s you’ll have a handful of 50+ days most years.

      I think Boston will hit 50 or higher several times in December.

  41. Amazing temp departures in Alaska ….. (big ridge up there)

    Currently through November 19th (not making this up)

    Anchorage : +10.2F, Barrow +10.8F, Fairbanks : +8.9F, King Salmon : +13.8F, Nome : +9.3F

    1. Meanwhile, in the US …..

      Minneapolis : -8.8F, Cleveland : -8.4F, St. Louis : -9.3F,

      Houston : -8.9F.

      Thanks a lot Alaska !!!!!!!

  44. One thing to keep in mind with the lake snow… 60, 70, 80+ inches, EXTREME amounts yes, but they are in VERY narrow bands. This is not a situation where we have a giant region buried. It’s very high impact in the area that it is in, but go 10, 15 miles either direction and it’s pretty much “Snow? What snow?”

  46. Pacific jet stream brewing. Gonna spoil the Arctic party soon. Arctic fights back briefly only to be overwhelmed again shortly after the 1st of December.

  47. Blog update posted. Adding some “heat” to Monday. I think we clear out a bit in the afternoon and some areas have a shot at 70. Probably 60s most areas.

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