A Swing Thing

271 Comments

12:17AM

After a somewhat milder Thursday we’re back in the relative deep freeze (as far as November goes) for today, but the temperatures will do a swing thing heading back up in a big way between early Saturday and late Monday, which as much as a 55 degree temperature rise possible. The transition will feature wet weather (Sunday night and Monday morning). Tuesday will still be mild, though not as warm as Monday, and a couple cold fronts will then drop the temperature back toward normal as Thanksgiving approaches. The wildcard will be storm development off the coast Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week. At this time it looks like most if not all of this will remain offshore, which would be favorable for pre-holiday travel. The holiday itself still looks dry this far in advance. And with that being day 7 right now, we’ll stop there, and expand on that and look forward into Black Friday and Thanksgiving Weekend in upcoming posts.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s, closest to 30 in higher elevations northwest of Boston, closest to 40 over Cape Cod. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs around 40. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows around 35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Clearing. Highs around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain AM. Breaking clouds PM. Low 48. High 68.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 46. High 54.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 46.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

271 thoughts on “A Swing Thing”

  2. And is it any surprise that the 00z Euro has already backed off the “Arctic outbreak” that isn’t going to happen at the end of next week? No. It shouldn’t be.

    No wonder why people don’t actually know what’s going to take place, because we get tweets and posts with details about events over a week away based on one model run. So wrong. It’s a very poor practice to pick out the run that has the weather that you want and it’s magically correct. There’s a science called meteorology. It actually comes in quite handy if utilized.

    1. Eric fisher is the worst, , he is the modern day hypester, it’s bad, and he already getting a bad rap for it, 🙂

  3. Thanks tk 🙂 I do see the cold has backed off, great news!! Im seeing more evidence that winter snows could be delayed beyond Christmas. We shall see 🙂

  5. 0Z Euro for Thankgiving Morning

    http://i.imgur.com/F9ln3AM.png

    It shows a decent little thumping of SNOW for Eastern sections.

    Regular GFS keeps it off shore

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=141

    CMC side swipes us

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    FIM also keeps it off shore

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112100/130/3hap_sfc_f150.png

    At this time I would say it’s TOO early to tell.

  6. I disagree about Eric, he’s terrific and its a shame you think that Charlie. And what model are you looking that shows Christmas weather as its over a month away.

    1. I think he’s terrific as well and just because he doesn’t always agree with TK, doesn’t make him terrible. He’s awesome and we are very fortunate to have him. 😀

    2. I think Eric is great as well. Charlie what are you seeing that snow will be delayed until after Christmas?

  7. Tom made an interesting post last night regarding possible implications of climate change and the recent Lake Effect Snows. I think most know where I stand on climate change, but given that I would like to weigh in. Hope no one minds.

    First of all a thought on the Lake Effect Snows. They have always been. I am not
    about to say that this weeks events are tied to climate change. It’s an early season
    out break of very cold air. The Lakes are warmer. Just better dynamics for increased
    Lake Effect Snows. IT happens from time to time.

    There is an interesting book detailing Lake Effect Snows:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/02/06/lake-effect-snow-book/1893573/

    Now, overall, Man has been increasing CO2 emissions at alarming rates. To say it has zero effect is foolish in my opinion. It HAS to have some effect. To be sure, there have been and always will be historical shifts on Earth with corresponding warming and cooling periods. It’s in the History long before we started spewing CO2 and other
    harmful gases.

    The problem is how do we measure what effect our emissions is having on our planet.
    very difficult to determine. So what do many do? They simply say it is having NO
    Effect. That is wrong. Better to attempt to measure what effect it is having.

    Let’s just say we are in a Natural warming period and further say after a certain time,
    this warming period increases the planets overall temperature by 2 Degrees F.
    What portion of that 2 Degrees can be attributed to our Emissions? That’s what needs
    to be determined. .1F, .2F? .5F even? Who knows. That’s the problem, but it’s in there somewhere.

    Sitting here in 2014 and saying we have ZERO effect on the Climate is burying our heads in the sand. It’s like the big paper mill saying what we dump in the nearby river will have NO effect on the river as the river gets hopelessly polluted. We can look at polluted rivers all over the world. How did they get that way? Naturally? I think not.
    When I was younger the Nashua River locally was White and Gray. DISGUSTING!!!
    Viewing that as a youngster Alarmed me. Fortunately, it has been cleaned up.
    Same thing closer, the Neponset River. Same deal.

    When I first started to work after college, a colleague’s family owned some sort of
    Mill up North. He admitted that all they cared about was making money and they didn’t give a shit that the were polluting the River.

    Man didn’t have any effect on depleting the OZone layer, did they? Nah, just happened naturally.

    So that’s enough from me. Man IS having an effect. There is NO denying it. We just DON’T know what that effect is right now. As Tom says, 200 years down the road, it
    may be known.

    1. My rant yesterday may seem like I think it should be a free for all but I HATE pollution. I just think that “man” is so insignificant in the scale of time that “insignificant” is still not small enough a description. Not even close.

      Furthermore, our rivers don’t smell anymore like they did even when I was a kid largely because we’ve exported our manufacturing, ie: pollution, to China et. al.

      And who are we to deny poor countries from raising their standard of living by doing what they do best and most available to them….cheap labor and a turned eye on pollution. I don’t advocate it but we had that in our past once and today’s generations are enjoying high living standards relative to the rest of the world because of this. And worst of all, we in our grand hypocrisy, endorse this by purchasing their goods day in and day out.

      Would I have not purchased the iPhone I’m typing on right now if I thought it would have reduced the chances of that pacific hurricane from being a 926mb low versus 925? May seem like a silly example but in total, we all exploit resources more than you can imagine just living what has become ordinary life that very few would be willing to give up in reality.

      Good debate!

      -W

  8. 68 Monday – SWEET!

    We’ve got plenty of winter ahead of us peeps.

    Frankly, if it were to just snow around here for Jan & Feb, I’d be fine with that. And I love snow.

    1. We really don’t have much say in it, do we?

      As far as weather goes, BB says it best: “It is what it is”.

  10. Thanks TK. Anyone know the high temperature records for Monday? If they’re around 70 we may challenge them.

    Take it for what it’s worth, but the latest ECMWF weeklies sure look cold and seemingly favorable for snow for us right through Christmas. It basically shows a continuation of our current pattern, with an overall cold, sometimes very cold look, with occasional shots of warmth like we’ll be having in a couple days. No telling if it verifies of course, I’m pretty skeptical of weekly and monthly products, but it is interesting. I suspect TK will disagree with it 🙂

  11. with the global climate change. talk, It is happening, but it is a mix. One it is a natural process. It could have happened anyway with out the pollution.
    2 human pollution is making something that would have happened over 150 years happen within 50.
    the extremes are becoming more and more, there is less and less in the between.

    1. It’s down for now, but I’m sure it’ll be back up soon. Probably just a technical problem. The guy who created it, Levi Cowan, is a grad student at Florida State, a real smart guy destined for big things in the field. He’ll work it out. The site was up all last winter.

        1. Just to follow up, I just checked Levi’s Twitter page, he said his site suffered some kind of cyber attack attempt last night and was disabled by his server host for at least 24 hours. So there may be a bit of a wait to get it back.

  16. Hadi or whoever, I don’t come on specifically to agitate, couldn’t be wrong, what I said above is an opinion just like all of yours, I truly think Eric has a snow bias and the average person sees it, I’ve discussed it with other people as well. It’s just opinion, I don’t just say something to get u mad, it’s how many feel or at least some, most would not want continuous tweets on how there’s a potential big snow producer for thanksgiving weekend for it to be nothing, 1 instance of hype that in the end is bogus, just my take, take it how u want 🙂 good day everyone 🙂

    1. I agree Harvey Leonard is a very straight forward to sugar coat hype fluffed meterologist, I think one reason that makes him so good is his dedication to not just reporting on the weather but true forecasting. I do enjoy all the local mets equally but only DVR the news on WCVB to not miss Harvey’s forecasts.

      1. Oops. that should’ve read…”very straightforward no sugar coat or hype fluffed meteorologist”. Shop is down to 46F keyboard doesn’t seem to like it.

  19. Now that the golf season is coming to an end, I find more time on my hands to visit the blog and contribute. Glad to see that lake effect snow machine finally quit, as a snow lover it is amazing to see that much snow so fast, from a distance…wouldn’t want to clean it up.

    I don’t know the policy on relaying info seen/heard from other weather outfits, but some interesting comments from Mr. Bastardi and Mr. D’Aleo over the last week or so about the evidence of blocking forming up north in the 15-20 day range and they both aren’t backing down from their prediction on snow event on east coast on/near thanksgiving that was made the beginning of this past week.

      1. Yes, you certainly did, however, you strongly hinted that
        it would be mostly off shore. 😀

        I still think you are looking at it that way. 😀

  22. Harvey thinks ONLY 60 on Monday.

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 6m6 minutes ago
    Looks like rainy, windy, mild a.m. commute Mon., with temps. in the 40s & 50s…may hit 60 Mon #wcvb

  24. Just my opinion as well on Harvey, he is the best no exception most experienced met on tv today hands down . Nothing against any of the other mets . I have been watching Harvey for years as well as other mets but Harvey stands out. He is a straight shooter tell you like it is met, no bs, no hype no nothing just truthful accurate information . Nobody is a perfect met as Harvey makes mistakes but from what I have seen ther are few and far between.

  26. TK – I noticed that yesterday’s CPC outlook now has mostly below normal temps for most of the CONUS and even Alaska now has normal/average temps. Does this mean that the pattern has radically shifted and we all will be in the cold for the first half of December instead?

      1. I know, but what are we going to do. Watch and see.
        I’m excited that there’s something to watch, even IF it doesn’t
        materialize.

    1. You think for 1 second I don’t understand that. Give me more credit than that. 😀

      The planets are beginning to line up. That’s all I am saying.
      Could it go poof? Of course. Could it go OTS? Of course. Could it hug the Coast and Rain? Of course.

      BUT this is more interesting than the maps showing a storm for the Fish.

      1. With seeing storms go poof for various reasons even when its on top of you I say run with what is within the realm of possibility and enjoy the ride.

  29. Here’s a close up

    NortheastWeatherHQ retweeted
    Zachary P. Duhaime ‏@ZDuhaimeDMJ 2m2 minutes ago
    Usually don’t like posting model inputs this early but this is what 12z Parallel GFS shows for Thanksgiving! #wxedge

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2-uIf_IEAAn2RO.jpg

    Who is this guy? Here ya go

    Zachary P. Duhaime
    @ZDuhaimeDMJ
    I am a Meteorology major at Westconn. For all the latest weather updates you need, midnight or midday, trust me the Weatherlord!

  31. Charlie. I don’t think anyone had an issue with your opinions of Eric Fisher even if most don’t agree. We are all entitled to our opinions. I think it had to do with us wondering where u were getting your information on snows holding off till after Christmas. You say u have seen evidence but we would be curious what that evidence is. Most on here make statements like that but reference to exactly where the info came from or explain why we think that. When u are asked by multiple people multiple times to provide it and don’t, it doesn’t look good and it honestly makes it look like its just a comment to agitate. I know u probably don’t care if people on here respect u, but if u backed up the statements u make, it would go a long way to helping us respect u and the things u say. That is all 🙂

    1. I understand, I’m not a big copying and paste, as easy as it is, but even when I say the averages various people say it’s wrong, like the WC, I enjoy everyone and the blog, Im almost ready to be ready for snow, let’s get to December 1st 🙂

      1. Copying and pasting is easy and I’d be happy to help. I think comments such as that should be backed up with sources or just not given. And you have every right to dislike anyone you want. I tend to think that it is not a good habit on a weather blog that is public to criticize mets but that is my opinion. And as much right as you have to dislike someone, others have the same right to disagree. As far as snow bias, Charlie you I have a snow bias. I love snow but it isn’t a bias. I also love warm sunny days and rainy days and thunder storms and life in general and get equally excited about all. I’m not certain you understand “weather” bias 🙂

  32. I agree Ace just show the information. I met you charlie and you seem like a nice person but it just comes off that you make blanket statements without ever showing anything. So it appears you are just trying to agitate people who are excited about winter. And I agree you have total right to dislike certain weather people.

    Well if storm does indeed happen I will be in Maine so that’s a gtd it happens here 🙂 but it also gtd snow in Maine I it does occur.

  34. I love the fun of tracking storms as well OS. It’s a big hobby for all of us so we get excited but realize so much changes from run to run.

    1. I’ll admit I love tracking them too, weather is awesome, I do wish winters were slightly shorter, but hey it’ll be ok 🙂

  35. I think the reason Eric F and others jumped on the potential is rather than using models, look and see that a cold front moves through on Wed with new air and sets up a boundry where a potential storm could develop. Eric was clear that the chance was there and just something to keep an eye on.

    1. Agreed, seems to be the same view shared by many mets, local and national. I think with the significance of Thanksgiving, you have to play the caution card and inform people of the potential no matter how great or how slim.

      1. Totally right, their job is inform people that the potential exists. I think the problem is people hear that and assume they are saying storm. Then when it doesn’t happen people say they screwed up.

        I rather know that a chance exists bc I might be able to make some changes to my plans.

  36. We have a winner for most snow from the Lake Effect.

    @ryanhanrahan: Week-long snow total now up to 88.0″ in Cowlesville, NY just east of Buffalo per @NWSBuffalo!

  40. 12z Euro at 168 hours looks to be showing a bomb developing. Question is does it get close enough? We’ll see.

      1. Turns into a real massive storm, but way too far south/east for a big impact. Grazes SE Mass with a few inches. Still, I think we officially have one to watch.

        1. I see, but it moves ENE. Waiting on Wundermap.
          I think it is close enough to throw a chunk of snow up to the Boston area. We shall see.

          Either way, it’s 6-7 days out and SUBJECT to change.

          It sure appears the CMC is out to lunch on this one.

  46. Hmm, it looks like the ingredients are there for something to form in that time frame. Watching this unfold will be fun, and a good segue into the holidays! 🙂 Just hope it doesn’t impact travel too much.

  47. NAVGEM is so comical, it’s not worth posting. Hasn’t much of anything at all. 😀

    Now waiting on FIM

  48. only one model is showing the storm giving us a good size storm… A storm is out there but I just have a feeling it will not hit. It might glaze the cape and islands if that

  49. ECMWF is showing different solutions with every run. RED FLAG.
    That is all. 🙂

    BTW be careful what you wish for. If the mild pattern is delayed it may very well take hold in early December and last most of the month. MJO is becoming an important player as well.

    1. EURO has been hinting at this thing for days.
      It just did not appear out of the blue.

      Doesn’t matter what we wish, the weather will be what it will be. 😀

      Do you even think there is a set up? Even if it were to go OTS.

  50. I’m also not impressed with this “parallel GFS” thing.
    They should have made it a perpendicular one. 😛

    1. Meaning you’re NOT Impressed with this particular run?

      OR

      You think the whole dam Parallel GFS SUCKS in general?
      (They contracted out the work to the lowest bidder!! :lol:)

      Let’s be specific and tell it like it is.

  51. I heard that Jonas Gray HURT himself While walking his DOG?

    WTF????

    That’s INSANE.

    I guess Bill is a psychic!!

      1. OK, thanks.

        Let’s be serious, HOW DOES THIS HAPPEN?????????????

        My Guess is, BLOUNT now gets his snaps for Sunday, not that
        they will attempt to run anywhere near as much as last week.

  53. Will see what happens towards the holiday. When the winter weather alerts go up is when I start to get excited.
    It is fun to track these POTENTIAL storms that form on the coast.

  54. Who is this guy?

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    No winds = no fetch.
    No cold air (below freezing) = no snow

    Record cold + perfect winds = lots of snow.

    Lake Erie temps: irrelevant.

    I DO believe that the Lake Erie surface temperature plays a role in the instability
    of the atmosphere above and downwind from the lake. How can it not?

    Well I guess he SHOULD know something. I don’t understand HOW he can make that above statement.

    Dr. Ryan N. Maue – Meteorological Applications Research
    Dr. Ryan N. Maue is a research atmospheric scientist with expertise in synoptic-dynamic meteorology, numerical weather prediction analysis, and tropical cyclone climate interactions. He is adept at the synthesis and visualization of very large datasets including operational deterministic and ensemble weather model output, historical reanalysis products, and observation based archives. Dr. Maue received his Masters and Ph.D. (2010) from Florida State University with a research emphasis on tropical cyclone climatology and mesoscale modeling of explosively intensifying “warm seclusion” extratropical cyclones.
    Dr. Maue has been an active participant in the academic community most recently as a National Research Council Postdoctoral Research at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey CA in a collaborative effort to improve understanding of weather forecast errors. He has published several peer-reviewed research papers and has served as a reviewer for numerous journals. Dr. Maue’s tropical update webpage has been cited numerous times in the media chronicling the recent historical downturn in global tropical cyclone frequency and integrated energy. He grew up in Northern Michigan and attended the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor for his undergraduate education.

  56. From Taunton NWS office

    JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
    WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

    EVALUATING SYNOPTICS…THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
    BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE CASE THIS YEAR…COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

    1. Be careful when trying to forecast waves. People will equate them to full coastals and take benchmarks and other things more seriously than needed. Different animal.

      1. Since the topic is at hand ….

        What is (are) some of the important differences btwn waves and full blown coastals, etc ?

        1. Different upper air configuration for one thing. You’re really just watching energy move along a jet stream aloft and a front at the surface with a wave. You don’t have the low pressure at various levels, the closing off, the stacking, etc., to deal with. And waves tend to move much faster, in general. Then without a full-blown maturing storm you don’t have nearly as many issues with wind direction, coastal flooding, etc., except in cases where a very strong gradient is in place.

      2. That may be. Waves tend to be WARMER aloft, don’t they?
        OR can be. Just not the same dynamics as a wrapped up
        storm.

        However, what the EURO and the Parallel GFS have depicted
        is the farthest thing from a wave, so clearly nothing is etched
        in stone just yet.

        As long as we are discussing waves. Waves CAN still produce
        Copious precipitation depending on the exact set up.

  57. Heading out for an evening of birthday related activities for our friend Emily. She’ll tell you about it later. 🙂

    I’ll be checking in mobile.

            1. Well that is not the best timing. Nothing can be done but have a plan b which I why I really do like knowing what might happen. Thanks OS

              1. I’m glad you said “might”. It’s still 5-6 days out. You know the drill.

                Something to watch at the very least.

                We are going out for dinner at 3PM, so if the timing is good and it happens, all will be fine.

            2. 3-5″ would be perfect. Enough to make things pretty and put everyone in the holiday spirit but not enough to cause problems

              1. Hey ace, I respectfully disagree it would present travel problems. Hope this one is rain as we are hosting with 17 family members coming over. I think it’s safe to say my wife would rather me here.

                1. True John, i didnt think about those that would have to work bc of the snow. I think 3″ of snow would cause a minor disturbance but not a game changer

  61. Unfortunately this will be are last thankgiving with Molly. Looking forward to the family seeing her as they have been so supportive . We had her blood tested last night to see if the Iv was helping her . Besides loosing weight she is still acting somewhat normal. Sadly get levels have not come down and they suspect she has between 2-6 weeks left to live . They said I’ll know when it’s time. Right now she is pain free and very happy .

  65. And as many of the models started to develop a mainly fictional event, they will start to come back more to the non-fiction version of things during this weekend.

    I’m currently of the opinion that the ECMWF may be handling the energy very poorly and therefore producing an erroneous solution. CMC is currently the favored model as of 00z Saturday.

    We’re not about to get a classic snowstorm on Thanksgiving. Warm air just departing to the east, marginal cold coming in from the west, an OPEN wave that is going to moving very quickly, and NO high to the north. Perfect setup? Hardly. Worst case scenario with this will be a Wednesday night or early Thursday period of rain/mix in southeastern New England.

    Model runs are going to be inconsistent. Why? Because models are far from perfect. The Euro is so confused right now that you may as well pull a run from any random day in November, December, or January and post it as the current run. Not sure why this model after being decent suddenly goes through a fit of stupidity. I suppose it has something to do with the upgrade. But that’s old news now. 🙂 Pretty soon we’ll be focusing on the wasted $ on the GFS upgrade.

    Still looks like the same overall regime will be unfolding in the few weeks ahead as we tip the balance toward the milder overall side of things. Yes there will still be shots of chilly air and plenty of air mass changes. The milder trend is an overall trend .. NOT every day. We were never about to dive fully into a Winter pattern that wasn’t going to let go, despite some very decent cold in the region now.

    1. Thanks TK. It seems continued frustration with models will mak for an interesting winter. Your explanation was a great read. And it also seems your predictions are holding true.

      1. The most frustrating part from a forecasting standpoint is that a model like the Euro will do very well for 1 or 2 weeks then suddenly go south, and it will come back to better performance suddenly as well.

        And of course my comments about models and fiction don’t have anything to do with people here like O.S. posting the various scenarios (he knows that by now). My issue is with the professional media and of course some of the social media sites playing the hype card to the max.

        I just read on one of those sites the other day something like (paraphrasing) “Something about the 18z GFS caught my eye, making me think a major east coast snowstorm is brewing. Not a forecast right now but just something I feel was worth mentioning because nobody has talked about it yet…” … Really? Come on. They all want to play hero. And it’s like they get a high out of “breaking the news” to the public. Somewhere that needs to be put aside in the name of real information. Unfortunately, it’s an addiction that is very hard to overcome for some.

        1. Sadly, that applies to all news reporting and media exec guidelines for employees. Maybe we all need to take a page from longshots book and write to the media execs and tell them to stop insisting mets be the first to break the news. It boggles my mind that those in charge do not see that the constant drone of “You heard it first on __” loses viewers.

  66. Well, I wrote a lengthy email to the folks who “manage” the ECMWF. I do not have enough technical expertise to get down several levels to pick things apart for them, but I strongly urged them to determine whether the model is verifying consistently in New England along with several other suggestions.

    I am sure that the people at ECMWF have nothing else to do, so they will probably jump right on my request, especially given the Big Name I have in meteorology. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  67. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the most amount of snow that has fallen in Boston in the month of November?

    A. 9.2 ”
    B. 12.6″
    C. 15.5″
    D. 17.8″

    Answer later today. I think the correct answer may date back to the 1800’s but I am not sure about that. I got this one wrong!

  68. Good morning!!! It’s buuuurrrriittoo out there, today is the beginning of a milder week, happy Thanksgiving!!:)

  70. NWS out of Upton, NY on POTENTIAL storm for Wed.
    For NOW IT APPEARS THE ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER AND HAVE LEANED MORE
    TOWARDS A NON-ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

    GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO BE A BIT TO FAR OFFSHORE THIS FAR OUT
    IN TIME WITH THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS…HAVE OPTED FOR A SOLUTION
    SIMILAR IN STRENGTH TO THE GFS…BUT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
    COAST…BUT STILL TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

  71. Why is it not going to get really cold and stay that way again and why did some of the recent runs of the ECMWF Weeklies point that way? It all starts with one mistake in the model’s handling of interaction of 2 short waves. Once you have a small mistake like that, the rest of the run can either blow up suddenly or burn itself out and go really badly a little more slowly. This is probably somewhere in between the two of those.

    The last several runs of the operational ECMWF have obviously been depicting a plethora of scenarios for the middle of next week. Yes it was one of the first to put a low pressure area or frontal wave in that region, so I give the model kudos for that. However, it has been having a very difficult time figuring out how to handle a lobe of southern energy (you can see as a shortwave coming around the base of the trough). Recently its idea was to merge this energy with energy to the north and create a sharper trough and a more rapidly-developing storm tucked closer to the coast. The most dramatic example of this is the 00z run from Saturday. But I do not feel that this solution is very likely at all and that the energy from the south stays pretty far south and progressive. Yes it does turn the corner but only enough to develop a wave on the offshore front, then propagating rather rapidly to the northeast (like when you give a rope a shake and watch the “wave” move along it). It will likely be close enough for at LEAST some cloudcover and a good shot at precipitation at least in southeastern sections for a time late Wednesday or very early Thursday (timing always suspect with these until they are pretty much forming). I just don’t see how we can get a full-blown storm system to develop and track up the coast in this scenario. Even the “imposter GFS” has been having some interesting difficulty with this and my instinct is telling me to trust the regular GFS over the “new and improved” right now. Go figure that one out… I can’t. 😛

    Anyway with less of a trough resulting, things stay lower in amplification and a little more progressive, and the result is less cold air intrusion and quicker moderation. We WILL have cold shots still. Don’t get me wrong. This is the pattern that was expected as we started heading from Autumn into Winter. So far it’s setting itself up nicely as it starts to recover from “Nuri-virus”. 😉

    1. Great detail TK. Appreciate your thoughts. It may be that these upgrades are only making these models give decent outputs in certain patterns.

        1. Yup. I’ve seen that with other complicated computer programs, including my own. 😀 There’s ALWAYS something. I can’t even imagine the intricacies of these model algorithms.

  72. Good morning all. Thanks TK for your thoughts on the models and Your expert
    analysis.

    I am having a great deal of trouble reconciling the GINORMOUS spread in model solutions. Incredible!!

    Given what you said, I am really having a hard time understand why the EURO has
    been extremely consistent run-to-run with this system for Wed/Thurs.

    Anyway we have a complete and total OTS scenario from the American GFS and the
    Canadian CMC, while we have a fully developed storm as you say tucked close to the
    coast with the 2 European models, ECMWF and UKMET. The American FIM is actually right in between those.

    Go Figure.

    I’l post a couple of the Storm Scenarios

    EURO from Wundermap

    http://i.imgur.com/s9rSc4F.png

    Another EURO

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=120

    UKMET

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=120&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&hh2=120&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Next post will be the others

    2. The Euro was the first to “see it” and has been consistent having it, but if you look at the overall pattern configuration, it’s different every run. That part is resulting from what I believe is increasing error with time, more than the “typical” model error.

      1. Gotcha, thanks.

        I’m certain you are correct with this, but I am still compelled to look at runs. That’s what I do. 😀

    1. Matt, I can’t get on either. They did say yesterday that their site
      was HACKED. SO there could be some fallout. Hopefully it will be back
      on line soon.

  75. TK, you’ll just love this….

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 1m1 minute ago
    Classic East Coast storm threat. Models differing. Even the EURO have been flip flopping. However, clearly the threat is there Wed into thu

    2. I am a big fan of Bernie. I understand why he isn’t dismissing it. I’m not completely letting it go, but just want people to understand what the knows vs. unknowns are.

      Not sure what NWS is up to but they seem to be in major cover-butt mode going into this season. Best example is the 3-map snow forecast.

          1. Generally a good group of guys there. I know some of them. But I think sometimes certain details get overlooked in the name of the bigger picture. Analogous to the media worrying too much about day 5, 6, and 7 when today and tomorrow are most important.

  76. Here I sit at my computer, contemplating doing some work and waiting on the GFS. 😀
    I guess I’ll do something and come back in a bit to check.

  78. hmmmm

    12Z GFS showing more of a wound up system than a wave. “appears” to be coming
    more Northward. Charts soon. 😀

  81. Ok Now what? Is the GFS out to lunch as well? Are they all out to lunch.

    Something “appears” to be up.

    From that GFS map above, it looks like the coast fights some rain and/or mix
    problems before it finally changes over.

    Onto subsequent runs to see how this things finally shakes out.

    1. Well, it is nearly lunch time, so yes.

      The CMC is probably the least hungry and therefore not likely out to lunch. Though I actually kind of like the FIM’s solution of how it plays out best right now…

      1. So the CMC is today’s Model of choice??????????

        This model Mayhem has to stop. Insanity.

        I should go back to the old way of simply looking out the window.
        👿 😈 👿 😆 😆 😆 😆

  82. And I’m sure that runs to come will shift back the other way. Just the program’s reaction to initial conditions and other initialization blips. One suspect data point? Probably.

  84. Looks like the 12z parallel GFS, which first sounded the storm alarm yesterday, has flipped to a weaker, more out to sea scenario. Just grazes southeast areas with some light rain. Model mayhem 🙂

    I agree with TK though, this is far from a classic snowstorm setup, especially in November. Can’t rule it out, but I’d be very surprised if last night’s Euro or even today’s 12z “old ” GFS came close to verifying.

    1. Indeed. btw, where is the Parallel run available? Tropical Tidbits is still down.

      Something is up. It may be OTS, but something will be there.

      1. I get it off Weatherbell, I’ve got a subscription there (my weather weenie indulgence, lol). It’s a great site, all the models you could possibly imagine and fantastic graphics for them created by Dr. Ryan Maue. Eric and Pete B post graphics from the site on their Twitter pages or blogs sometimes. It’s a little pricey though, $185 per year, or I think you can do month-by-month subscriptions as well, if you just wanted it for winter for example. They’ve got the PGFS.

    2. He did say northeast which could mean Maine I guess, his tweets are for a specific audience, and this is not a shot at anybody, he knows his audience so he’ll hold that carrot out, instead of saying Boston most likely rain inland snow 🙂 but then that would kill any hype of following a storm ugh 🙂

  87. DT is on board, surprise, surprise

    Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos.
    6 mins · Edited ·
    **** ALERT **** EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREAT INCREASING FOR WED NIGHT / THURSDAY MORNING***
    SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL PLANS ON THE EAST COAST rain on the coast is likely for eastern NC se VA delmarva NJ – EVEN in NYC& Long island .. hvy snow well inland … Mix over I-95 / piedmont that ends as snow
    This should of been out hours earlier but I was just way too tired to and could NOT keep my eys open for the European. Sure enough of course the one night I decide not to when all hell breaks loose.
    The European model once again is taken the lead in developing an forecasting a significant East Coast winter storm. This is now the fourth run in a row the model has shown this system –

  88. The only thing certain is there will be a storm on the east coast. The question is where does it go. Situation needs to be watched.

  89. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan WVIT here in CT
    GFS now has a decent snow event for Wednesday night. Need to watch this carefully – still low confidence but trending snowier

    1. Talk about model mayhem? What about MET mayhem.
      Some on board, some clearly not. Amazing!!!

      What the bleep is the public to believe????

  90. TK must have given Bernie a call and now Bernie is backing down. 😀 😀 😀

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 9m9 minutes ago
    storm threat Wed-Thu will follow the same formula w/ models. ebb (against storm) & flow (for storm).Think we r in a flow. will ebb at somept

  91. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue now10 seconds ago
    Now, at 12z, the disagreement is just as large b/t GFS T574 and T1534 — the old / new model … Treat them like ensembles.

  92. Thanks for all the posts O.S. Makes it easy for the lazy people in the room…..ehmmm….me.

    This “storm” means nothing to me unless it’s there next Tuesday the earliest.

  94. I wonder how many storms actually cross the benchmark during snow season. I bet it’s quite low. TK, any ideas? I bet it’s 10% MAX.

    1. At this stage, not a bad solution.
      HOWEVER, a 1007mb almost open wave flying NE outside 40/70 is not going to do a whole lot around here.

  96. The latest gfs shows a strong easterly wind off the relatively mild water, this spells rain within 20-30 miles in from the coast, long way to go 🙂 just my take at this point, let’s see how it plays out 🙂

      2. In the beginning yes but it changes northeasterly and at a time easterly half way through quite possibly changing to rain, time will tell 🙂

        1. Charlie that is not the beginning and it doesn’t change to
          Easterly in the middle. You’re flat out wrong.

  100. the gfs shows the storm to give us a easterly wind giving areas east of i95 rain for most of it, i95 to central part of the state a mix to snow western areas light precip.

  101. Now all the social media sites are jumping on it.

    It’s funny, if all the models had this thing OTS, thru the Lakes, or a non-event, they’d all be saying “we’ll watch future runs for changes” .. which translates to “we’ll watch the models until we find one that gives us a snowstorm and then make that the ‘official forecast'”.

    But since some of the models are showing accumulating snow, that seems to be the final word already. 😉

    HILARIOUS.

    I’m not afraid to editorialize, btw, as you know. But I’m going to start fighting more and more for a better way of giving weather info and having people understand it.

    Not holding back opinions.

      1. What a run. Center looks to go about over the Canal, actually a little too far west for an ideal snow setup for eastern areas. Mixing would be an issue. Widespread 12-18″ where all snow though. Just a model projection though.

        1. If the center went over the canal, it would rain out through Worcester most likely. The Euro’s snow map would still be very off.

  104. I wonder where these pieces of energy currently are ….

    Because at 96 hrs on the EURO, there surely is a southern stream piece, with a 1008 mb low off of Florida and a northern stream piece, with a 1010 mb low in the Western Great Lakes.

    I tried to work backwards, but feel like I lost them at 500 mb around the 24-48 hr mark.

  106. Regardless of the outcome…

    Now the hype will be really turned up.

    !) I don’t want to hear an excuse in the form of : It’s the biggest travel week of the year! It doesn’t matter. The practice should be the SAME no matter what time of year it is. Consistency.
    2) Wednesday is no longer the biggest travel day, overall. It’s Tuesday. It used to be Wednesday.
    3) The ECMWF is the worst-case scenario, which means that will be the one that gets posted on all the pages and used as the headline for what the potential is. That, at this stage, is FALSE advertising and only to suck people in. I do not and will not agree with that practice, ever.
    4) If it’s Monday, and all the models are on board, then we’ll talk. No exact details more than 60 or 72 hours out? Nope. I guess my ratings would suck if I was a TV station. 😀

  108. I agree. Two things why. Travel and time and money spent on holidays ok that’s 3. So I just started the thawing process on my two turkeys, hosts need to clean houses to make sure everything sparkles. Far away destination via plane or car you get the point it’s takes time and money for us all to enjoy the holidays. Nobody wants any travel disruptions as the holidays are ment to be enjoyed and nobody should have to deal with the added stress of a canceled flight or dealing with slowed travel due to hazardous driving conditions.

  109. Looked at the entire run of the ECMWF. No change to my previous opinion of the current performance. Another different depiction of the details beyond the middle of next week. That’s a sign of model instability. I think it’s developing the ocean storm far too quickly and therefore maturing it far too soon.

  110. I don’t want to lean toward dry or stormy at this time cause it’s to unsure. Check back later. Words from David Epstein . No hype at all from this guy . I like him.

  111. Euro has it going almost right over boston around 9Z on Thursday

    http://i.imgur.com/DtlQRDY.png

    Rain all the way to Worcester and a little past there.

    Big snows in Berkshires, Vt, NH and ME.

    So, now what? This is the upteenth run in a row that has had this system.

  115. Euro ensemble mean compared to operational run

    http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014112212!!chart.gif

    Another view
    Operational

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014112212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

    Ensemble mean

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2014112212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

  117. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 2m2 minutes ago
    Subtle but big diff between EURO and GFS. energy underneath the northern trof the key.

  119. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 1m1 minute ago
    The details are still as yet to be determined, snow, rain etc Wednesday. Potential is there for significant amounts. Stay tuned.

    1. Interesting that’s not what he posted earlier . Would not even call it dry or stormy said it’s to early as I posted above .

  120. Ok, now we get to the heart of the matter AND this was the problem ALL last Winter as well!!!! From Taunton NWS office:

    */ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS…

    ECHO SIMILAR SENTIMENTS PER WPC: MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE DIFFERENCES LEND TO LOW CONFIDENCE…SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC- ORIGIN ENERGY LEND TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. WITH UPSTREAM ISSUES IN HANDLING PACIFIC ENERGY…IT IS DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILS OFF THE E-COAST AND WE MAY NOT KNOW THE TRUE IMPACTS / OUTCOMES UNTIL WE GET WITHIN 2-3 DAYS OF THE TIMEFRAME.

    Finally som refreshing honesty (Other than TK. TK thanks for taking my suggestion and calling them) 😀

  121. Meanwhile down at the Upton NY NWS office….

    …FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK
    BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEANS…WHICH WOULD TRACK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 40/70 LAT/LON BENCHMARK WED NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW COAST…SNOW INTERIOR ON
    WED…CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WED NIGHT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACK NORTH.

  123. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ 19m19 minutes ago
    Tough Call Leading Into Thanksgiving. The Potential Exists For A Big Snowstorm Inland Wed. Night! Not Confident Yet.

  125. I would rather know a potential exists when there is so much involved when it comes to holidays. The busiest travel day is only two full days away. I’m a Plan B person. So for one I appreciate the warnings and they come wrapped in potentials and possibles.

  126. They should focus on the Monday system for people that may be traveling early. The size of that storm and wind field is going to wreak some havoc with air travel early in the week. The storm itself may resemble the Edmond Fitzgerald storm of November 1975.

  127. Oh yes, blog is updated! No detail for midweek system yet. It’s far too early for anyone to know for sure what is coming up with that one.

    What I can tell you is that it looks like a nice slug of rain early Monday from the storm before that one.

  128. I’m very disappointed at how many met’s are looking right past the Monday system at something WE DON’T KNOW THE DETAILS OF YET!

    Are they really going to keep doing this? The profession is going down the tubes!
    Does anybody actually get it? Perhaps they just don’t care. Sad.

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