The Week Ahead

465 Comments

10:37PM

No, you don’t get to open the present yet, because it hasn’t even been purchased. What is that? Oh, you mean the Thanksgiving storm? Well, first of all, the storm will be gone by Thanksgiving, regardless of what its impacts are in southeastern New England. And as far as those impacts? Yes, it’s still too early to tell, as it is impossible to determine exact track and rate of development, which will be key, since this will indeed be a very fast-moving system not held up by any blocking, and working with limited cold air moving in from the west and also aloft. Why did I talk about this already? Because you would have scrolled down to find out my thoughts on it anyway, so I just saved you the trouble. So basically the forecast for this that I posted on the previous blog will stay the same for now and then as we move through Monday we can start to expand on it.

Speaking of Monday! There is a more imminent weather system to deal with. A large low pressure area cranking up and moving northeastward through the Great Lakes will send a warm front northeastward across this area early Monday, preceded by a decent slug of rain, nicely timed for your Monday morning drive, if you have to make one. But by afternoon, it will be gone, and just lots of clouds and a few spotty showers will be around. And at that time, the warm and relatively muggy air (for November) will be flowing in on a gusty southerly wind. But as “dramatic” as the warm frontal passage will be, the cold frontal passage will be so lame that you probably won’t even notice it, other than a very slow temperature drop later Tuesday. That day itself will actually still be quite mild and dry with sunshine and a few passing clouds.

Yay! I get to skip Wednesday because I already said a whole bunch of not much about that day. Seriously, though, with some uncertainty and with the importance of the day for travel, we will have to watch to see if snow becomes an issue later in the day or at night. More to come on this…

Thanksgiving: The storm will be gone, and whatever degree of impact we’ll be recovering from, the holiday itself will present a blustery chill with clouds breaking for sun. This colder trend will continue right through Black Friday and Thanksgiving Weekend. We’ll be watching for a weak clipper type system that may blow through the region at some point (timing uncertain but will guess late Saturday to early Sunday for now) with some snow showers.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing southwest to northeast after 3AM. Temperatures rising into the 50s. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with rain, moderate to heavy at times, pushing through the region southwest to northeast in the morning. Mostly cloudy with spotty rain showers in the afternoon. Muggy. Highs 65-70. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting back to S 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease and spotty rain showers dissipate. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, gusting over 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunshine with passing clouds. Highs around 60 by midday, cooling through 50s in the afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH through early afternoon, diminishing later in the day.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain coast, rain/snow inland late day, ending overnight as snow inland and mix/rain coast. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Clouds and some sun. Windy. Low 30. High 40.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Risk of snow showers late. Low 25. High 35.
SUNDAY: Clouds to sun. Risk of snow showers early. Low 25. High 35.

465 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

      1. As in snow on the holiday itself? I believe so. That was during a long run of even years that were dry and bright and odd years that were unsettled. That pattern was finally broken with a rainy Thanksgiving Day 1992.

        1. Yes on holiday itself. We were adding onto the house and had to shovel the still open addition. As I recall the storm lasted until mid day.

          1. Yes. It was mainly a morning event. The football game between Woburn & Winchester was postponed until Saturday.

  7. Ch7 just said cold rain all along the eastern coast and also 95 corridor . Plowable snow western sections and real quick storm .

  8. Yes real quick progressive storm but interior areas COULD have several inches of heavy wet snow or as I like to call wet snow cement snow since when you are shoveling it feels like you are moving cement. The timing stinks with this on the busiest travel day of the year.

    1. Agree and I’m suspecting what already is a busy travel day tomorrow may now be a nightmare to avoid Wednesday travel .

  11. Good morning and thanks TK.

    Euro has gone bonkers!

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5h5 hours ago
    ECMWF 00z blankets Wash DC to Philly to NYC to Boston with heavy, wet snow midday Wednesday into Thursday. Travel nightmare unfolding.

    1. Saw that track of the EURO on TV this morning as meteorologist Joe Furey at our FOX CT showed us. Said its taking just the right track and just enough cold air to get a heavy wet snow.
      I would not be surprised if areas closer to the coast who don’t have a winter weather alert get placed under a winter weather
      advisory at some point.

      1. Agreed. Even with the current Euro track, Boston gets a fair amount of snow albeit with some rain.

        GFS the stingiest with Snow and confines it to inland areas.
        Boston gets an inch or so at best.

        NAM even gives Boston 4-6 inches.

  13. 0z FIM Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 24 Nov 2014 – 00Z

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112400/130/3hap_sfc_f078.png

    925 mb temperatures

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112400/130/temp_925_f078.png

    This baby is MUCH COLDER than previous runs.

    Still boundary lay issues along the coast, however, it does indicate temps in the 30s.
    Interesting to be sure!!

    24 hour precip ending 12Z Thursday

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014112400/130/totp_24h_f084.png

  16. Sox to sign Hanley Ramirez

    An industry source has confirmed that free agent Hanley Ramirez is on his way to Boston to finalize a five-year agreement with the Red Sox. News of the five-year deal was first reported (via twitter) by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, who reported that the agreement was “in the range of five years, $90M.”

    1. See. And you had no faith. 😀

      You were in the running all along. Where I am, it will be a battle with the Rain.
      Could be a really tight gradient from Right on the coast to a few miles inland.
      We shall see. The NWS snow map looks pretty reasonable at this time, although 10-14 “might” be overdoing it some. 😀

      1. I didn’t have faith at all. It’s just so damn early. Shows you what I know.

        Imagine if it weren’t moving so fast.

      2. Yeah I’m thinking 8-10 maybe. The ground is still warm and will eat some of it up. And once the precip. slows, maybe it goes back to rain at the end for a short time. Who the hell knows at this point.

  18. From Taunton NWS

    WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
    THIS POINT…APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
    OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
    THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

  19. I’m looking forward to how warm it gets today. Can it hit 70F …… Can Logan beat the record high of 72F ?

    I’m going rain at Boston, perhaps all the way to Worcester. Maybe Springfield, MA or somewhere out there gets 2-4 or something like that.

    Reasons ….

    (1) preceeding warmth. (2) no cold high to the north. (3) some component of ocean air will briefly get involved in the early to mid part of the storm at the boundary layer and in late November, that is a huge factor. If it were January or beyond …….

    1. Hey you could be correct. I for one, think you are wrong.
      Worcester certainly will be ALL SNOW.

      Boston, Logan, likely more rain than snow, but probably still “some” snow.
      Hard to determine that. The track could change killing any possibility.

      We’ll continue to monitor. 😀

    2. I could see that except this could be a classic elevation storm.

      I’ve seen those out here where downtown worcester has 3″ and I’ve got 8″ three miles away.

      1. True, but honestly, in this case, downtown Worcester
        gets almost what you get. Just my opinion of course and I could be full of Crap. 😀

  20. I think in their discussion, the NWS says to expect about 3/4 inch liquid equivalent inland ? (sorry, trying to get ready for school 🙂 ).

    And from 3/4 inch precip, its going to accumulate a general 8-10 inches with some areas 10-14 ?? WHAT ????

    These fast moving, progressive systems rarely end up dropping the predicted amount of precip.

    I disagree with that snowfall map on so many levels. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. Lou Merloni retweeted
    Red Sox Prospectus ‏@RDSoxProspectus 8m8 minutes ago
    FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports that the #RedSox are finalizing an agreement with free agent Hanley Ramirez.

    1. Thanks. That’s the GFS of course, and that reflects in their snowmap nicely.

      I like the FIM thermal profiles. MUCH COLDER!

      Not saying the FIM verifies. Just that I like that run much better, that is all. 😀

      1. I’m spending all my time on Thursday. How about those heights on this chart! That’s something worthy too. LOL.

  27. I realize this rain event isn’t sexy like the next storm but any idea when rain today should end just north of Boston?

  28. I’m in the mostly rain camp for Boston . I just am not buying into it. Maybe snow on grass but no travel problems in and around the city due to snow .

  29. Classes about to start, I wish I could continue along ……

    I think these fast moving events end up being 6-8 hrs in duration and the precip tends to be way overstated.

    At this early stage, I’d think .6 to .8 QPF and ……focusing on inland or even well inland, all it takes is for it to be 34F or 35F in the boundary layer and poof, there goes those predicted snowfall amounts.

    I keep thinking those snowfall amounts from the NWS would be more appropriate if the temperatures were going to be in the mid to upper 20s.

    Looking forward to checking back in later, have a good day everyone !!

    3. Have a good day Tom and thanks for your posts.

      I would love to be in your area today, specifically at the coast. These are some of my favorite days to sit inside, listen to the rain and watch the wind and surf.

  30. If the NWS snow map verifies then there is a person with a machine that can control the weather, because that map has no chance whatsoever of verifying coming out of this kind of warmth, WITHOUT strong cold air advection at the surface, with MARGINAL cold air generated aloft, and with the ocean as warm as it is…oh and the fact this will be an express-train of a progressive system.

    The wording of some of the forecasts is as if we have a cut off to drift overhead slowly. Odds are, steady precipitation is over not long after midnight and the “meat” of the storm is 6 hours in length, tops.

  31. So retrac, the NWS’s 3-map system gives you a range of 2-17 inches for this storm. Isn’t that useful? 😀

    1. I’m with you. I saw that map and was like huh? What do they know that we don’t to take the totals above the mean? I’m with Tom on this one. For instance, think of all the heat being stored up today. That’s gotta mean something.

      1. I don’t like the 3 map system, AT ALL.
        Like, I’M COMPLETELY OPPOSED TO IT.
        I think it is the worst idea they have ever had.

  32. Saw on a “weather enthusiast” run FB page last night that they were waiting for a certain model to forecast snow so they could “pull out all the stops on this one”.

    Oh, so that’s how meteorology works? Wait for certain models to forecast what you want to happen and then make that your “official” made by a non-meteorologist forecast. I’ve been doing it WRONG all these years. Damn.

    I shouldn’t have wasted 5 years of my life getting that diploma. 😛

      1. I agree totally, just sharing what they have. 😀

        Or to follow your analogy, it’s how a Treat getting news
        from FOX.

  34. Lou Merloni retweeted
    Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 30m30 minutes ago
    Sandoval’s agent, Gustavo Vasquez, told me same thing he told @alexspeier: No deal with #RedSox. However, @JonHeymanCBS reporting it’s done.

  37. Just heard the Sox signed Sandovol now too?? I guess Jon Heyman’s report was true. I don’t like either of these signings but it does make the team better. Now let’s get Lester done!

    1. Gordon Edes just tweeted 48min. ago that Sandoval’s brother said the signing with Boston is “not true” at this moment.

      1. Interesting. 98.5 and BZ are both reporting the deal is done. Looks like they took the Hayman report and ran with it, lol

      2. Well, it’s not the only model doing it. And it supports the strong signals for a warm-up in early December. But maybe not THAT strong…………….

  41. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 8m8 minutes ago Boston, MA
    I don’t envy anyone who has to travel the I-95 corridor on Wednesday. Looks like a beast Boston to DC. Timing is everything!

    1. does Eric ever step off the gas just a tad bit. Certain areas yes but not all will be getting snow from this. Im just thinking people will be scared to death with pre turkey travel and think the entire region will be getting a snowstorm.

      1. Yeah he seems to have drank the hype Kool Aid lately…I know some of it is management but when he started out he seemed more level headed.

    1. Thanks OS!
      What is you opinion regarding Bernie’s thinking that the N/W side of the storm produces it’s own cold air when intensifying?
      Also, if the storm tracks further E, does that bring colder air inside of I95, or does it just cut down on precip for everyone?
      Thanks ⛄

  44. Good grief!!!! Ik it’s early and 5 days away but next week looks very mild, everyday looks like it wants to be 50+ and nights don’t want to go below 40. Am I reading this right? Lol

  45. The nam is for sure overcooking for Wed/Thu, I’m still seeing boundary layer issues for southeast mass and near the coast, but west and north could get into some steadier snow, I’m not into the big snow camp yet, I’ve been getting numerous text on 6-10, 8-12, even over a foot, where is this coming from? Are the news outlets saying this?

    1. For areas Worcester and points just to the north and west, yes. Winter Storm Watches for 6+” with probably more. I suspect winter storm advisories will be going up for everyone else except for the cape and islands for a general 1-4″

  46. Is there a trusted model output anywhere out there that is NOT forecasting at least a couple to a few inches in Boston?

    1. GFS has about an inch or so for Boston. Confines real snow to
      West of 495 or so, which could be what it ends up. OH so much up in
      the air at this point. Kind of usual, isn’t it?

        1. Its funny. DT on wxrisk.com has a first call snowmap out. He’s a huge euro guy and his map actually looks a lot like the GFS output. Yet he continues to claim the euro is the way to go on this one.

          1. Sorry, but if the euro consistently shows a storm 5+ days out and the GFS starts to show it 3 or 4 days out but ultimately gets the outcome correct, that is not a win for the euro IMO

        2. It very well “could” be. Wouldn’t that be ironic.

          Wonder what the parallel model says?
          Tropical Tidbits is still down.

          1. Waiting on the latest SREF.

            At times, this model has been spot on.
            Doesn’t necessarily mean this time, however.

  47. I’m really hoping JMA comes in with his “where most people live” comment. That makes me laugh my ass off every time.

  48. Some of the mets need to step up because all hell is going to breakout tomorrow. ch 5 and ch7 sticking with mostly rain with some mix.

    1. Although it’s still a tad early, they “may” be doing their views a disservice.

      Viewers should be prepared for snow possibilites, even to Boston.

      Not saying anything with certainty, just that they should be clued into
      the possibilities. Saying mostly rain, may not do the job.

  50. Re: Sandoval

    NO DEAL YET

    Dale Arnold retweeted
    Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier 4m4 minutes ago
    Sandoval will make his final decision today, his agent just informed me.

  54. Been MIA bc of back but very interesting storm. I worry about how warm it is ahead of storm. But dynamics will play a factor. I am heading to Maine Wed morning so wil be chasing the storm. It’s also a fast mover so that will impact totals.

  57. I-84/I-90 towards CT/NY are usually a horror show in good weather on the day before Thanksgiving. If this plays out there will be significant challenges with travel by car. Those traveling by air from BOS/PVD may actually make out better w/this storm depending on their itinerary.

    1. That whole corridor from Hartford south and west absolutely sucks. Especially the Connecticut autobahn…..I mean Merrit Parkway.

  58. 12Z GFS is in. Still on track. Sharp Snow gradient West to East.

    Here is snow map zoomed in:

    http://i.imgur.com/FAPf5HH.png

    Regular zoom snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112412&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=081

    Height of storm

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112412&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=057

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112412&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=060

    1. Boston “appears” to be on the 2 inch line with 3-4 inches “just” back from the coast. Very very sharp gradient.

      We shall see.

  59. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 3m3 minutes ago
    In all likelihood, New England sees a rather large area of accumulating snow, but precise placement to hinge on storm track.

    1. From Matt Noyes:

      I expect two things to happen in the next 24 hours – 1) The northern edge of the precipitation shield will become sharper, and 2) the placement of heaviest snow potential either will be nailed down, or migrate in response to the most likely track of the storm center.

      I’ll be eager to update you again Tuesday morning on NECN!

      Matt

      Matt’s Snow Map – Interesting

      http://www.mattnoyes.net/.a/6a00d83451c01c69e201bb07b3c49f970d-800wi

  60. A planning period at the right time. 🙂

    If I read Taunton NWS discussion correctly, they point out that as of the 00z runs, the GFS is colder than EURO.

    I’m now looking at the 12z GFS, hour #60. Looks like on the GFS, hr 60 is the heart of the show. Lets assume the GFS continues in the 12z runs to be the colder solution.

    If I’m reading the information correctly, I think the 540 line at hr 60 goes from NYC to over Hartford to just west of Worcester to over Manchester, NH …. etc …..

    I’m giving the OS, stick a fork in it !! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. and … on the awesome maps posted by OS above ….

      the 0C, 2 meter temp line is in NW Connecticut, passes north and west of Worcester and into SE NH, but the GFS says all that snow points S and E. 🙂

        1. true …….. snow in the air, but is 34F to 36F going to get you all these accumulated totals being thrown around. That would have to be constant heavy precip.

  61. FUNNY, actually, HILARIOUS!!!!

    Dan Shaughnessy retweeted
    Brady Skinner ‏@skinzski 4m4 minutes ago
    @GreshandZo @scottzolak @Dan_Shaughnessy Reason why Pats win coin flip all the time is Kraft installed a magnetic field under the stadium

    1. It is funny 🙂 but this guy is the biggest local patriot hater, he trolls the globe too about the Patriots, he’s funny but was brought up in a time that baseball was king and he’s jeaulous we don’t talk baseball 12 months a year. It’s been out there for sometime now, thanks for all the maps Youve posted os much appreciated 🙂

      1. Meant to say he’s just jealous we don’t talk baseball and dominate the airwaves like back 15-20 even 25 yrs ago, he’s mad when the Patriots win 🙂

        1. He’s no fan of the Red Sox either Charlie. Shank is what he is he…a columnist who likes to push buttons…

  65. Kevin Lemanowicz ‏@klemanowicz 5m5 minutes ago
    New data coming in- looks like we’ll need plows ready, especially Worcester! Hold off on asking snow totals. Promise them at 5 @fox25news

    what information is this?

    1. Don’t know.

      GFS and NAM have been in for awhile.

      Perhaps he’s looking at the CMC which is just coming out???

      Maybe he can see the 12Z FIM? I dunno

  66. The T-giving eve/morning event is the flip side of a March storm, EXCEPT the ocean water is much warmer than it would be in March, AND there is marginally cold (cool) air behind the storm. I don’t think Boston or the coastline get anything out of this except rain followed by a tiny bit of glop. Different story for the interior. And the interior is broadly defined as west of Vicki’s house to the Berkshires and points north and west. The turnpike could be very bad west of Worcester. So, I suggest that all who can get out early on Wednesday and have to drive west, do so as early as possible on Wednesday.

      1. Don’t agree just yet. I want to see more.

        From what I can see NOW, Boston gets in on at least some
        of the SNOW. We shall see.

        2. Oldsalty I think your right but a big thing
          is when it may flip to snow because it sure
          will not start as snow. Who the hell knows, as
          you say throw a dart.

  67. Is there a chance any high temp records happen next week? I see temps in the 50’s but I thought to hit a record we would at least need to reach 60+, the news is going nuts lol 🙂

  68. First idea: 4-8 Worcester Hills / Monadnock region, 2-4 near and just outside I-495, slushy ranging from coating to 2 inches near I-95 and to the west a bit, and pretty much nothing coast and certainly southeastern MA / Cape Cod.

    May tweak, but that’s my first call.

      1. Unless somehow the wind can turn NW at Boston before the heaviest precip gets out of here, they get nothing, maybe flakes to a thin coat of slush on any inner-city grass.

  72. The snow rain lines I’ve seen come directly across Boston straight down 95 through Prividence, and said the cities should see mostly rain, we shall see 🙂

  73. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 5m5 minutes ago Boston, MA
    ECMWF finally came around to the GFS track today…farther east. Thinking a pass right over Nantucket or slightly east is most likely.

          1. Of course not. As I said, 6-8 in the neighborhoods, even less towards downtown. perhaps 2-4 at
            the airport or even less. NOT the foot depicted
            on the map. NEVER said that.

  76. 12Z Euro looks to have shifted a little bit east and colder. Has the snow bullseye over east central MA, northern RI, and SW of Boston. Gives the city itself about 10.” Is the Euro out to lunch on this one? Does the GFS actually have the better solution?

    1. Based on that I think it’s time to cancel all the football games plus Thanksgiving dinner. 😛

      We won’t take into account that these models don’t take time of year and boundary layer conditions into account. That’s not important. 🙂

      1. I think its too much to ask to take time of year into account, but with all the money and resources invested into these models, they should take boundary layer conditions into account

  77. Before you buy into these colder solutions and snow maps, let me offer you a little hint. The track of the 850 low is going to be more important than the track of the surface low.

    2. On wundermaps it looks to track right over the Canal (850 low). As its tracking over, 850 temps look to drop to around -6 right over Boston

  78. Another issue is almost all the precip may be on the front end before we have enough cold air. Gone by midnight.

  81. This is getting real interesting now. Tough to flat out deny all the guidance. That Euro run was fun to watch. Definitely colder. I’d really rather it not happen though, I personally know lots of people traveling Wednesday, it’s gonna be a mess out there.

  83. JR on channel 7 has put his first map out (on Twitter at least). He’s favoring a very warm solution it looks like, maybe too warm. I’d be surprised if my house in Wrentham got no snow, which is what his map shows. At least a slushy inch or two.

  84. WILL the NWS change their tune? What do you make of this?

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 1m1 minute ago
    Forecasters are reviewing the latest data for the mid week storm. We’re also preparing to brief emergency managers.

    2. Sounds like the politicians made a phone call to me. They’ll all be on tv without ties on within 24 hrs.

    3. To play the devils advocate which I love to do…..doesn’t it make sense since a good deal of traffic does head west to be advised?

  86. I’m going to keep throwing out questions for considerations ……

    (1) At what point do we think the surface winds turn northerly ? (My guess is when the low is about at the benchmark or even due east of Nantucket …

    (2) whats the problem with item # 1 ….. a good portion of the precip occurs before the low gets to that position

    (3) The part of JR’s map above that I like is its closeness ………… Imagine you had a compass perfectly lined up to due north. ….. Guestimate even the position of 020 on the compass (I wont even ask for 045) and try to visualize how much of eastern Mass would have a partial trajectory off of the 50F ocean if the wind for the first half of the storm is 020 degrees.

    (4) Now, the problem with item 3 is if the 020 degree wind materializes through the first half of the storm, its going to be around 37F or 38F from Hartford, CT …. northeastward to Worcester ….northeastward to Derry, NH and into extreme Southwestern Maine at the halfway point……….. How long is it going to take to cool the column off those toughest last 3 or 4F? I would contend that as that slow cooling off is taking place, the SW back edge of the heaviest precip is closely approaching.

    Initial guess ….

    Worcester starts as rain, transitions to snow …… 2-3 inches

    495 first half rain. NNE wind, temps in mid-upper 30s …… second half a slow transition to snow, but it snows at temps btwn 33-34F and so, it sticks on lawns D-1 inch.

    128 eastbound, majority rain, may end as a half hour of snow/flurries. Dust the ground and the car tops at best.

    Jackpot ……. Oh … Springfield, MA ….. Keene, NH ….. Jaffrey, NH …. maybe even Concord, NH ….. 3-6, maybe a spot 7 “.

    2. Tom we have disagreed before and once again I think you are incorrect.
      Perhaps I’ll have egg on my face. That’s fine.

      Worcester Sees close to a foot give or take some.
      NOT 2-3 inches. I couldn’t agree more strongly on that one.

      Now when it comes to Boston, well that’s a lot trickier.

      1. Its all good and I am thoroughly enjoying all of the different takes on this storm. It wont shock me at all to be completely wrong. 🙂

        1. I truly enjoy reading the differing opinions and the well present reasoning behind them. Gives a person a perspective into what might happen and why and is a great learning tool. Thank you both – thank you all!

  88. Highly doubt Boston will see any accumulating snow. Flakes, yes, for those who wake up early enough. Maybe some glop on cars, grass, etc … But, actual snow to look at and admire on Thanksgiving, no.

    Furthermore, I hate to say the long-range does NOT look good for winter-lovers like myself. Maybe the long-long range will prove different, but what I’ve been seeing from, say, yesterday through the 10th of December with the exception of a couple of days late this week) is a mild trend with temps well above normal, some rain, and hardly any frost (even at night).

  89. SREF…32 degree line at 850 mb is WEST of 495 as of 7PM Wednesday. Big snow? Nope. We’re going to be 4-5 hours from the end of the event by then. It better hurry east from there!

    2. I saw somewhere today that the SREF is made up of 20 ensembles of the NAM which tend to run warmer. I could be wrong though.

  92. There were no snow maps this morning but Gil Simmons meteorologist at our ABC station here in CT said if I had to stick my neck out 2-4 shoreline 4-8 inches central part of CT and 6-10 inches northern CT.
    All of CT with the exception of the I-95 corridor under a winter storm watch.

  93. TK, how much precip do you think this event puts down ? Not in terms of snow, but just total precip ….. Thanks.

  95. That’s it, I’m going for broke.

    12-18″ from Provincetown west to Logan (including cape cod bay); 18″ – 30″ from Logan to Vicki’s house. 30″- 50″ Vicki’s house to mine. 2″ where JMA lives.

  97. I am thinking a level 1 snowfall 4 inches under for areas near and at the coast. Level 2 snowfall north and west of I -95 where snowfall will exceed 4 inches.

    1. You say rain and very little snow and if it snows 6″ ur screwed. Same goes for calling for 6″ of snow and its just rain and slush. No one wins.

  99. Then you got look and see if any heavy bands of snow to setup and you don’t see that before hand but rather when the storm is happening. You get under one of those heavy snow bands your going to more snow than what is being forecasted.

  100. Just thinking out loud ……….

    How many times has anyone of us looked at a future long range event and as we give it a brief description, the following phrase often appears ….

    …… “and there’s a nice, cold high to our north.”

    1. yes, of course and Ideally that should be the case.
      BUT there are exceptions.

      Be Careful of ABSOLUTES. 😀

  103. In terms of snowfall, it appears the GFS is alone on this one. Euro, NAM, SREF, CMC, all give Boston at least Advisory level snows.

    1. Yup. Let’s see what the next few runs of GFS brings.

      I “wonder” IF the FIM is ready?

      Any word on Tropical Tidbits? That was a fantastic site.

  107. I will admit, that it does give me slight pause, that so much guidance is calling for impactful snow ….

    Nonetheless, I shall stick with my main thoughts and sink or swim. 🙂

  108. I’m going to have a contest on if it does indeed snow what day will it be all gone, I say by the end of the weekend 🙂

    1. And a nice discussion to boot. There is even discussion about when the snow may accumulate or not, etc.

      It is a thorough discussion and I appreciate that it seems like the forecaster is trying to incorporate some climatology into his snowfall thoughts.

  111. HE HE HE

    NWS for JP:

    Wednesday Rain before 2pm, then snow. High near 39. North wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
    Wednesday Night Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 31. North wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

    How the BLEEP can it be Rain to SNOW in the After noon and then in the evening
    it be Rain and snow becoming SNOW.

    My Take, it’s virtually ALL snow in JP. Let’s see. 😀

  112. I agree with TK that getting the 32 degree line far east is gonna be a challenge. It could be a situation where it snows for a lot of the storm but just doesn’t accumulate much due to marginal temperatures and a warm ground. But I bet Boston gets its first inch.

  113. We had a setup like this either last cold season or the one before in which every model was one way and the GFS was an outlier, and nailed it. I wish I could remember the specifics, or even the date. But I can’t. 😛

    1. I think he was horrified when he came in and saw that blowtorch map JR had put out though, lol. He greatly expanded the snow area. Our area went from rain to 2-4″.

  116. I think a big thing that is being missed on this one is the speed of the heaviest precipitation. Almost GONE by shortly after sunset, in Nova Scotia by 1AM Thursday! Would not surprise me if the clouds are breaking by then here.

  119. If anyone has the time or the interest ….

    Go back into the December 2012 Woodshill Weather entries and look for the December 29th blog. (Storm update) It was somewhat of a similar event to what is currently expected. I’m guessing the ocean is a “bit” milder now than it was that Dec. 29th.

    Happy reading !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  121. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 41s41 seconds ago
    Possible. Still uncertainty w/temps closer to coast which is critical. RT @turfman911: storm is trending colder. These will increase

  122. 18Z GFS at height of storm:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112418&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=054

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014112418&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=054

    Snowmap

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014112418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

    Zoomed in

    http://i.imgur.com/UXM2qON.png

    Remarkably similar to 12Z run.
    This model HAS to be taking boundary layer into account, otherwise it should
    show snow on coast.

    SO, could TK be 100% correct and the GFS ends up nailing this sucker???

    Time will tell.

    Interesting no matter what.

  124. I know these guys are NOT reputable, but for giggle, here goes:

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 25s26 seconds ago
    BTW that 1-4 for #Philly, #NYC, and #Boston may have to definitely be upped based on current 18z Model Data! (By a lot) #SnowstormWarning

      1. No joke right. It’s either a snow bomb or suntan lotion. No B.S. “between 128 and 495” every freakin’ time.

    3. NWS qpf thoughts

      COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0 INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH.

  133. I don’t know who these turkeys are, but here’s an “offical” snow forecast for Boston
    of 5-9 inches. 😀 😀 😀

    NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ now7 seconds ago
    Based on current Computer Models, and SPC Predictions. I have Bumped my #Snowfall Totals for #Philly #NYC and #Boston up to 5-9 Inches!

      1. This is one of 2 home computers. On Windows 7 at work.
        I’m too cheap to purchase a new computer until when/if
        this one croaks.

    2. Snow to the canal! LOL

      That rarely happens in Mid January for the love of man!

      You’ll go to the ends that’s for sure O.S. LMAO

      1. Almost everything I have posted indicates SNOW. 😀 😀

        Look, I know it’s November. No one has to remind me.

        I just think the wind will be MORE Northerly than Easterly.

        We shall see. 😀

    3. I saw one tweet from some outlet that said up to 10 inches in Boston, then 2 sec’s later saw a tweet of mostly rain, it’s funny, u can find some crazy tweets on those Twitter accounts 🙂

    2. Most of that was written last night despite the time stamp. They have been carrying it forward and making small changes.

      And the 15:1 is based on models that are too cold.

  138. Been chatting with some colleagues / former coworkers. We all have the same idea and are in Camp Harvey.

    1. We may have to get the plows on standby at least . Unfortunately I’m probably spending Wednesday night at work in boston ugh

      1. New England is within a very large area of above normal temperatures which cover most of the eastern and southern US.

      1. Agreed. Epstein is not into hype. His map makes sense, though I’m more conservative than he, at the coast, that is. I’m not going to see much of anything here in Back Bay. Perhaps some patchy snow on grass which melts quickly on Friday in spite of the relatively cold temps that day.

  141. From Eric’s new blog tonight:

    My snow totals are a little higher than many because of this storm’s ‘modesty’. It’s bringing enough moisture to the table, but shouldn’t be strong enough to really throw a ton of warm air in off the ocean with a coastal front farther to the west. So long as the track does what we think it will (head very close to the benchmark, 40N/70W) there should be enough cold air to produce a period of solid snow. I’ve liked the GFS look for this storm for the past several days, and the ECMWF has moved in that direction on Monday. The NAM is likely still a little too far east, and the RPM may be drunk (as usual).

  142. I think the forecasters are drunk, not the model. Seriously, the set-up is NOT good for accumulating snow at the coast. I may have to eat my words. But, I’m not buying the snowy scenarios depicted. Plus, some of the talk of 15:1 ratio’s is insane. 15:1 is hard to get in Boston in a January storm, let alone November. If it snows in November with the kind of marginal temperatures aloft and at the surface the ratio’s will be closer to 5:1. But, the biggest issue is that by the time it starts snowing at the coast the storm is zipping along to Halifax. I’m sticking with my prediction of a bit of glop at Logan and downtown, with real snow confined to counties west and north of Boston.

  143. I happened to catch Harvey and Kevin L. at 6:15pm.

    What really stunned me was the radar animations of the precip that they showed. I didnt think it was that impressive. Even with regards to precip intensity.

    I also didnt realize that a good part of this was daytime Wednesday. We’re out at 11am Wednesday, so hopefully a chance to watch it unfold. Harvey’s numbers made me feel like my snow thoughts have some chance. 🙂 🙂

    1. Heaviest 4PM to 8PM. Bumping up the timing. Over BEFORE midnight.

      Big snow forecasts are not going to verify.

  144. Lost in all the storm focus ….. It is one mild night for Nov 24th and the 50s to low 60s go all the way westward to central PA.

    It feels great !

    1. These temps will cause my maples to get eaten again in the spring. The moths are everywhere out there. The warmth is helping them thrive

  146. I hope Eric Fisher’s #’s verify but i fear if they dont, his rep might take a hit, especially if people here already think he’s hype

    1. I dont think he’s been hype. I think he has been very accurate and brought an even higher quality weather blog to BZ.

      1. I dont think he’s hype either and think he’s excellent, but i know for some if he gets this forecast wrong will write him off into the hype column

    5. You may have missed my post last night. We have hundreds. They are just plain ugh. It’ll be a bad spring again for the trees

  149. Take it for what it’s worth, but the new SREF plumes show a mean of 11″ for Boston. I think the SREF is related to the NAM, so that could explain the cold bias. But still, that’s gonna be a massive bust assuming the general forecast verifies.

  150. Will be interesting to see the 0z runs and 12z runs tomorrow and of course if there are any surprises when the storm is going on.

  153. 0z NAM starting to look a lot more like the GFS- it has way too much precip but it’s starting to recognize the warm solution with the sharp cutoff at the coast.

      1. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 43s43 seconds ago
        Here’s 00z NAM forecast snow depth from the storm. Like the way this looks/in line with thinking.

  155. And the NAM just spits out the same garbage again, but that is expected from a model that ignores the temperatures at lower levels when taking into account snowfall, AS WELL AS the levels where snow is generated.

    1. It’s not the NAM, it’s the algorithm that produces the snow map.
      Notice the difference between the one Eric posted and the Instant maps.

      Erics near the coast is LESS than 1/2 of what the Instant map shows.
      Same NAM run.

      Of course, unless you think the QPF is overcooked as well. 😀

  159. Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 1h 1 hour ago
    Just a rhetorical question from the ECMWF model — “Why you doubt me?”

    Lol, I think we’ve been put on notice: not that it can’t bust, but the Euro is the model to watch this winter. It was all alone on this storm a few days ago, and now look. It’s amazing how much better that model can be than the others when it’s “in the zone”. And it appears to be in the zone.

      1. Yep. Just to make it clear, the top part is of course Dr. Maue’s tweet, but the bottom part is my thoughts.

  161. And of course the fake sites taking the NAM now because it has the higher totals.

    Social media is destroying weather information.

    Disgrace to my profession. We’re going to fight to get it back. Enough.

    1. Ik Tk and I feel for you and the ones that do it responsibly, I look at a lot of media sites and you can basically find whatever you want, you want someone to tweet 2 ft you can find it, I don’t know how you can change that, what’s your latest thinking for my area Tk, I’m thinking coating to an inch?

      1. I could see a couple or even a few inches there at max but you’re not about to get a foot of snow.

  162. Well I don’t think I’ve ever seen so much sleet and ice being depicted on the latest nam run for Boston to Providence corridor, what the hek

    1. It would be very interesting to see how ice could occur when the temp will be at or above freezing with a mild ground during 90% of the event.

      1. it’s gotta be overlooked, I’ve never seen anything like that, granted I’ve only been following models for 15yrs but still 🙂

  163. TK ….

    When we look at an event, sometimes we can ask “what could go wrong” with our thoughts.

    So, for those of us that are thinking less snow ……. “what could go wrong” for our thinking …… How DOES it snow a lot just away from the coast in this scenario ? What would have to happen ? And, whatever those things could be, will they be possible to occur come Wednesday ?

    1. It would have to be stronger than average cold air generation from above, because the real cold air is going to be held way back behind a the shortwave to the northwest of New England.

        1. Nothing jumps out at me.

          There has to be some merit to this if myself, Harvey, and 5 people I worked with in the private sector all individually came up with essentially the same #’s.

  167. I think today will be a lot warmer than most thought even though it was advertised as a warm day. It’s already 61 in pembroke and 55 in Boston and today will be mostly sunny until clouds roll in this afternoon. Also with the ground as warm as it is, it could take hours to stick on roads with the most likely outcome sticks on grass mostly.

  168. EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.GLOUCESTER.FOXBORO.NORWOOD.
    CAMBRIDGE.BOSTON.QUINCY.WEST GREENWICH
    410 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

    WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WED MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

    THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH.WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WED MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
    * LOCATIONS.INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.GLOUCESTER.FOXBORO.NORWOOD.
    CAMBRIDGE.BOSTON.QUINCY.WEST GREENWICH RI.
    * HAZARD TYPES.HEAVY SNOW.
    * ACCUMULATIONS.SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

  170. I was just about to post that Boston now included in winter storm watch. I think areas in and around Boston will have advisory level snow. I don’t see that watch being upgraded to a warning.

  173. Wow, 425 comments ….. Awesome.

    I’m sticking with my thoughts from yesterday ….

    Really mild overnight, nice not to hear the heat clicking on this morning.

  174. Good morning. WOW!

    06Z NAM and GFS have Come in tighter, throwing most snow more inland.
    0Z Euro, CMC and FIM all a bit more outside bringing snow closer to the coast.

    Is it just the data void 06Z OR are they both finally onto the correct solution.
    Frankly, I was shocked at the change in the NAM. Pretty dramatic over the 0Z run.

    As close as we are, need to look at the 12Z runs today.

    At this moment, I am leaning towards backing off on the snow bullishness.
    We shall see. More to say with 12Z runs.

  176. This may have been a bit premature and in response to the more bullish 0Z runs

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

    * LOCATIONS…INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…GLOUCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…
    CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…QUINCY…WEST GREENWICH RHODE ISLAND.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

  180. HUMUNGOUS spread in snow maps among models. How the bleep does one know?
    Meteorology and climatology? Model trust.

    The GFS has not budged for a couple of days. It seems to be locked in.
    Now the NAM as moved to more of a GFS solution, but the EURO, FIM and CMC
    have stayed the course. 06Z runs? Real? I dunno. Either the GFS is KING OR
    it’s full of Shit. We shall see.

    If the 12Z NAM is back to a Snow Job, then perhaps it’s on. IF not, I’d say it’s OFF
    for Eastern sections.

  181. Good morning all – if you are in the middle precip areas on this storm – is the snow going to be a few inches of paste and break branches or just knocked down accumulations? In other words, is this a generator storm?

    1. Personally, I don’t think there will be enough snow for that problem.
      IT WILL, however, be heavy and wet enough in the areas that get snow, that IF
      enough falls, then it “could” be a problem. Sorry for the vague answer AND
      those are only my thoughts. Please take it for what it is worth.

  182. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 1m1 minute ago
    Likely a difference between final snowfall total at Logan Airport to Back Bay to Brighton and West Roxbury. Slush to 3″ 4cast as of now.

  184. I was surprised to see Boston, southern fairfield, southern new haven counties, and the NYC under a winter storm watch when I woke up. I think those areas advisory level snows.
    6z NAM not buying for snowfall for the interior.

    1. I don;t know what is up with those 06Z runs. Perhaps the models are onto
      something. Energy moves in more quickly and tugs the system tighter to
      the coast. OR perhaps it was the 06Z with the data void? I dunno.

      Let me check the 06Z CMC to see if it Tagged along.

      CMC snow accumulation map

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048&lang=en&map=qc

      Now I don’t know what this means?

      IF that is a snow level in MM, then max is 2 inches. DOesn’t seem correct.
      If this is melted equivalent, Holy Shit!!!!

      So I don’t know what this means.

    1. That’s a good map. I’m a buyer.

      MAYBE if it gets cold enough you could blend this map with latest NWS to split the middle.

    2. He was really good at explaining also that the rain/snow line is difficult but he is being conservative with the 128 area.

    3. The watch is actually warranted given the potential for a very strong banding feature which would help overcome the warmth at the surface, should it occur in its maximum potential.

      Besides, the watch means those particular conditions are possible, not imminent. 🙂

  186. Even though a lot of the forecast totals have gone up, I’m less confident in snow closer to the coast than I was yesterday. Boston may still come away with a slushy inch, at least on the back end as a final burst sweeps through in the late evening, but I expect very warm solutions from the 12z NAM and GFS. Will be tough to get much east of Worcester. The NWS map is laughable. If the 8-10″ line makes it that close to the city, then, as TK said the other day, there is someone in that office who can push buttons and control the weather.

  188. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l3&region=us

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=ALY&product=RWR

    I’m going to guess Boston and Worcester’s temps and dewpoints about 6pm tonight …

    Logan : 52F/36F …… Worcester : 46F/29F

    Ok, every weather model in the universe is snow happy, I’m in FULL agreement that they are.

    I think those guestimated temps and dewpoints above are going to be in the ballpark this evening …

    With the satellite loop showing that clouds are going to be around tonight, thus, its going to be difficult to radiate any warmth back into space and the New York State obs showing that there is no cold air or southeastward push to it in western or northwestern NY (46F in Watertown, 40F in Buffalo with southwest winds) ….

    How is it going to cool off overnight ?

    Why do I get the feeling that when we wake up tomorrow, its going to be about

    41F or 42F at Logan with a 33F dewpoint and a light northeast wind ….

    and 36F or so at 1,000 ft Worcester with a dewpoint of 29F or 30F.

    And all the towns and cities in between are going to be somewhere in the 38F to 40F range with a dewpoint near 31F or 32F.

    And then, it seems this is more and more a daytime event, so that solar brightness is good for .25F to .5F ….. Just seems like so much column mildness for even a decent 850mb low to overcome.

    I guess this is why I continue to be quite skeptical.

    Have a good day all !!!!

    1. Tom well said and great posts the last 24hrs. Hey Tom getting ready for holiday break, lol . It’s all over the news what a Shane. Christmas break and merry Christmas!!!!!

  189. Some forecast parameters on the models, especially the NAM as was also pointed out by a colleague, are quite extreme in the borderline/contrast department. Probably the highest “bust potential” (even though I hate that term) that I have dealt with.

    One could make a case for a trace or a foot in a couple locations, especially based on the 06z NAM, depending on how you apply meteorology.

    I think the safe thing, for me, to do is to go with something similar to what I had yesterday but not turn my back on some of the short range guidance with the larger numbers…and then it’ll be all about the nowcast (the other term I dislike). 😛

    1. TK in your experience is there more nowcasting now (now being in past several years) than there used to be? I suspect I am more aware of it just listening to and learning from the discussion on here. However, I just don’t know.

      1. No. If anything there was more then, except that it was known as “current conditions”.

        We live in a society that has this overwhelming need to know what is coming up as far into the future as possible. Media bent to this want, and it basically turned into a societal addiction. That goes for almost all kinds of information, though weather seems to stand out.

        Once upon a time, the forecast went out 2 or 3 days, was updated a couple times a day depending on your source (newspaper, radio, television). If you were watching “instant media”, a.k.a. the newscast on TV, or listening on radio, then yo got the latest info and if it was weather related, that was your nowcast, which went on quite a bit.

        Now, it happens in a different way. Reporters on the scene providing constant updates for the depth of your nearest snow bank along Route 9, fed to you by local news that has decided to preempt your favorite soap operate, or heaven forbid, your favorite PRIME TIME show! Or we have the cable networks… Need I say more?

        Maybe in some ways there is more nowcasting going on now, but with less useful information than ever before. 🙂

        1. Thanks, TK, for your great response and you are right that it carries through to everything, including some gruesome reporting from areas of unrest and war. I love the first two sentences of your second paragraph. Pretty much says it all.

  190. The nam run again looks so wrong, either a major bust or a major snowstorm is coming, the gfs has been consistent. We shall see 🙂

  191. Yesterday someone (I don’t remember who) drew a comparison between this set-up and 12/29/12. I remember that well…primarily because I was driving to NYC the next morning to see Phish. That storm gave us 9.5 inches in Natick, yet at my kids’ preschool in Needham there were maybe 2-3 inches. Similar possibilities with a few miles making a big difference?

  192. I agree Tk, and all this info and bad info get circulated in blogs,TV’s and radios, trust me I do a lot of filtering, the problem is the forecasting isn’t much better than 15-20 yrs ago yet everyone is making predictions, it’s a sad state of affairs, unfortunatley it will only get worse 🙁

    1. The human element of forecasting will always vary with the ability of the forecaster to make the best-informed decision possible. We walk a fine line of going from adequate to too much information.

      The biggest problem facing weather right now, aside from what I mentioned above in my reply to Vicki, is the ability non-meteorologists have to put information out there in much the same way the professionals do it, to a public who doesn’t know the difference between the 2, partly of their own ignorance and partly of the failure of some parties to be clear about what/who they are.

      The solution if simple, in words, but complex, in action. But something needs to be done. Every time you have a 16 year old snow bunny that picks the snowiest model to post and makes that an official forecast, the fire just gets fueled because of how many people see it, and believe it. And then you have the cases where they happen to be “right” just because they got lucky and picked the right short range model. You can bet your money belt that most of the time these sites post “analysis” it is not their own, but culled from some professional and reworded. But then suddenly the 1500 people that happened to see it are now convinced that “you guys are always spot on and our local guys never get it right” … mainly because of their very short memory.

      This is a huge problem and it’s going to start costing people dearly. And does not stop short of becoming life-threatening, in some cases.

      1. TK, I am a know snow lover, but I AGREE 100% with your accurate assessment of the situation out there. 100%

        When we do it here, we all know that this is a hobby and interest and we are FREE to share our thoughts on an upcoming weather event. right or wrong, full of shit or not. It’s NOT public. It’s not an official forecast (aside from yourself) to be digested by the general public.

        I agree, when bozos out on FB and Twitter post forecasts
        that come off as “official”, it is NOT right. It should be STOPPED!! There should be some sort of licensing process
        for these social media sites.

        Keep up the great work.

        1. Completely. I am never referring to you and any other non-met on the blog when I make that statement. You are all free to comment here with your opinions and thoughts, provided they remain in the guidelines, which are mainly geared toward being civil and tolerant, and being able to disagree and debate without insulting others.

          Thanks OS!

  193. Anxiously awaiting the 12Z NAM. I really don’t know what to expect.
    We shall see. Is thing On or Off?

  195. 12Z NAM is coming out. So far, it “appears” to be hugging the coast. We’ll see IF
    it move off shore some.

      1. VERY tight Snow Gradient West to East.
        It HAS shifted Eastward some from 06Z run, BUT NOT
        to the extent that the 0Z run was. Maps in a moment or 2.

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