Kiddie Coaster

141 Comments

6:13PM

We’re in a changing weather pattern now and it’s changing to a fairly quiet one weather-wise but quick swings in temperature, kind of like riding the kiddie coaster at the amusement park. Though we are heading into an overall milder pattern we’ll still see shots of colder air. Weak systems will pass through every couple days, warm front Saturday night, cold front Monday, warm front / cold front combo Wednesday, and another small low pressure area early Friday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-25, coldest interior valleys, mildest immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs around 35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of very light snow early, and a very light mix overnight. Temperatures holding near 35. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Decreasing clouds. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 30. High 50.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 50.

141 thoughts on “Kiddie Coaster”

  1. Thanks tk 🙂
    Good evening!!

    Down here in the boothill in Missiouri, temps TOMMORROW around 60 degrees, Sunday will be in the mid 60′s, and when I get back temps should be in the 50′s Sunday and Monday.

  6. I think RGIII has played his last NFL game. I’ll be surprised if we see him again.
    That may be as big a pro sports dud as Blane Lacher (who?) was for the Boston Bruins.

    1. Huh I need a better comparison 🙂 who the hek is that, never heard of him but yet we don’t watch hockey so idk

      1. That’s why you don’t know him. He was talked about as the next great in the goalie world of hockey.

        And I don’t mean RGIII had no talent. He could have been right up there with some of the best. Something just didn’t click, maybe the combinations. And then the injuries. It’s pretty sad to see it happen. I don’t wish ill health on anybody.

  7. Today’s (VERY WEIRD) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the average temperature on Thanksgiving in Istanbul, Turkey?
    A. 37 degrees
    B. 57 degrees
    C. 77 degrees
    D. 97 degrees

    I assume this came up because of the word “turkey.” Answer later today.

  9. Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On Boston’s coldest Thanksgiving in 1901, the high temperature was…
    A. 14 degrees
    B. 19 degrees
    C. 24 degrees
    D. 29 degrees

    Answer later today.

  10. Redskins have had some good drafts over the years but that RGIII trade was clearly a total failure that set the franchise back about 5 years. Once he got hurt it was all over.

    1. Until RG3 got hurt he was destined to become great. Unfortunately its his own head thats gotten in the way of his recovery and return to greatness. I dont put that one on the team, its on him

  11. Will see how McCoy does against the Colts tomorrow. He looked good when he came in the second half of that game for Kirk Cousins and then the game he started against my Cowboys he won.
    I am going with B on both trivia questions.

      1. Rg 3 showed so much more potential leaf couldn’t even complete passes yet domination in college, how’s your trip in Maine?

      2. Still i cant fault the skins as an organization. They saw a potential premier franshise QB and went for it.

  13. Ryan Leaf Jamarcus Ruseell Tim Couch come to mind for biggest top draft picks at the QB position in my lifetime. I am sure there a few others I am missing.

  14. A really good explanation of the upcoming weather pattern for the next couple of weeks by DT on Wxrisk.com. Pretty much follows what TK has been saying too!

    1. I think DT has been pretty much on the money this Fall heading into Winter. One can love or hate his style but he does some really good weather videos explaining his thoughts on the pattern. I like watching those.

  15. Only got down to 21.9 this morning. Once again I expected sub-20. Nope.

    29.7 now. Will NOT stay below freezing.

    1. That is the pattern for the Winter, overall, but in varying configurations so it’s not the exact same type of weather all the way through. This was my basis for forecasting only slightly below normal snowfall at Boston (41.1).

      1. Gottcha.

        Years ago, I think it was Stuart Seroka who was on air
        explaining how sometimes the split jet can produce big snow storms for us.

        So Snow is not out of the question. The configuration has
        to be just right.

        Comments?

        Thanks

      2. Question.

        Curious why you think others are NOT factoring this in OR id they are, minimizing the effects? Tx

        1. My comment on the split jet: Absolutely. Split flows can and do produce decent snow at times in the Northeast. You just need the right set-up. And even split flow patterns produce phasing. It’s not always split. It’s an overall split. I think we will get them phasing a few times moreso second half of winter once we dump everything south and empty most of Siberia and Canada of cold air in January. There will be enough left even though I think the end of Winter is “milder”. We should snow several times and maybe with a couple decent-sized events for portions of the region.

          I think others may be giving too much weight to Siberian snow as a clinching factor. I’ve noticed that not only ENSO (El Nino or El “Nono”) is going to have a say, and the MJO and QBO phases. Among others. May as well list then all but those are some of the biggies for this season. We may actually see the NAO become so strongly negative sometime this Winter that we’re just cold and DRY for a while.

  17. From NWS re: Tuesday Very interesting…

    MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS HOWEVER A N-NE WIND TRAJECTORY STREAMING ACROSS RELATIVELY WARM EASTERN MA WATERS /SST U40S/ WILL YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE RISK OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE. GFS BUFKIT DEPICTS THIS WELL WITH MOIST BLYR AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPE UP TO 300J/KG AND NCAPE AROUND 0.24. GIVEN THESE CAPE VALUES AND A DELTA-T OF SST /+9C/ AND TOP OF BLYR /-10C/ APPROACHING 20C WILL RESULT IN A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF SOME ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE.

  19. 12z EURO suddenly stormy at the end of the long range, lets see if there’s any trend in that.

    I find today to be the capper to one cold month.

    The high may not be sub freezing, but its close.

    Snow in the shade is not melting and the air is crispy cold, in spite of the warm sun. Today could easily pass as a January day.

    1. How true. I never expected it to say below 32. I figured on 34 or 35 for a high.
      That looks to be pretty good.

      I was just about to review the longer ranger. It was hinting yesterday as well.
      GFS did also. 😀

      1. Brrrr

        I would NOT survive like that.
        I can take the cold outside, BUT NOT INSIDE!!!!!

        72-73 in my house.

        1. At my Daughter’s for T-giving yesterday and her
          house was an even 60! Wife and I FROZE OUR ASSES OFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  21. Everything here is solid white. Snow piles at end of drive. Roofs covered. Makes putting up indoor Christmas decorations and listening to carols festive.

  22. This will be the first time since Tuesday that I have not seen any snow flakes. Had the accumulating snow of about 3 inches on Wed then flakes in the air both yesterday and today. Sitting down having Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday with the flakes falling felt like having dinner Christmas day.

    1. In my opinion, that is a HOPELESS LOSS. However, that’s like 8-9 days out,
      so time for things to change. We shall see, but I really doubt we seen snow
      out of that one.

  24. It’s an Almanac storm so the chances of it happening are low. If it does happen I will hear about it from a lot of people I know who think the Almanac is very accurate.
    I always say when they get something right lucky guess. Although when they do call for snow events I am rooting they are correct.

  29. Welcome back hadi

    Currently 65 degrees here, absolutely beautiful

    Contest? Will we have a white Christmas?

  30. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago
    ECMWF pushes HRES global to T2047 or 10-km in 2015 as the new Cray supercomputer is firing on all cylinders.

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 8m8 minutes ago
    Next upgrade of ECMWF IFS model cycle 40r3 will provide model variables of freezing rain & ice pellets along with rain/snow.

    1. BTW, Dr, Ryab Maue will be a guest speaker during the Channel
      3 Winter special this evening at 7:30PM.

      Will be out so will miss it.

  31. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the average temperature on Thanksgiving in Istanbul, Turkey?
    A. 37 degrees
    B. 57 degrees
    C. 77 degrees
    D. 97 degrees

    The correct answer is B, 57 degrees.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On Boston’s coldest Thanksgiving in 1901, the high temperature was…
    A. 14 degrees
    B. 19 degrees
    C. 24 degrees
    D. 29 degrees

    I understand the answer to be C, but somehow I feel the answer should be B. Oh well!

  32. Models show temps rising through the night and will be around 40 degrees by sunrise, when i land it should be in the 50’s

    GAMEDAY TOMMORROW!! Go Patriots, I’ve seen a couple patriots fans in my travels here 🙂

  33. Definitely one of the coldest Thanksgivings in a very long time. However, as my sister in Vermont says (and she’s going by Vermont folklore), a white Thanksgiving is often followed by a green Christmas. Yes, even in Vermont. There is of course no causation. But, this year may be one of those years in which the last weekend of November is colder than any weekend in December. I saw the Euro storminess on the models, and I do believe it’ll get stormy around here. Unfortunately, it’ll be mostly in the form of rain.

    2. We have been able to put food safely on our porch which we haven’t been able to do for a decade..except possibly some last year.

  35. Mix to snow next Saturday.
    May snow into Sunday.
    Huge storm? Probably not.
    Significant? Possibly.
    Shovel? Probably.

    5. Are you trying to be the 1st to say this? I’m not understanding, this is totally against what u preached for many years.

      1. There’s a signal on the GFS of cold high pressure to our north, with some kind of system that looks like its going underneath (south) of New England.

        As we’ll find out Tuesday, a high of arctic origins sliding north of New England will significantly chill us out.

      2. If I’m the first to say anything there are a whole host of possible reasons for this, including but not limited to:
        1) I believe what I am saying to be possible and it comes to be.
        2) I believe what I am saying to be possible and it does not come to be.

        At the moment, there are a few signals (not necessarily clear-cut on model runs) that indicate that we could see a period of storminess late next week (i.e., next weekend).

        “But the models aren’t really showing it! How can you say it?” Answer: Once upon a time I attended college for 5 years and learned how to do this with reasonable accuracy. Does it always work out? Of course not. But I never look at a set-up without using “applied meteorology”, which is an inexact science.

  36. i believe both the greenbay packers and the patriots will be tested and see what they really are. I honestly believe both teams will go very far in the playoffs.

      1. Got mine all ready!

        1) One we buy every year.
        2) One my brother owned when he was alive.
        3) Neopets.com! 😀

    1. So that’s a lot of confidence in that forcast cold and a lot of snow from wbz. Who knows it’s nothing but a guess .

      1. More than a guess imo. They look at atmospheric patterns etc… But there is always some inherent guessing in it all.

  40. Colder in Boston than in Green Bay. Today, that is. Tomorrow, a front pulls through Wisconsin bringing the temps down through the 30s and into the 20s. That short-lived front will arrive here about 36 hours later.

    Pats 30 – 27; last- second 53 yard FG. We’ll see. It’s fun to make predictions.

  41. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the term for wisps or streaks of precipitation such as water, ice or particles that fall from clouds, but evaporate before reaching the ground?
    A. Rain funnels
    B. Fog rays
    C. Virga
    D. Cirrus

    Answer later today.

  45. Good morning!! Leaving pb and heading towards St. Louis, looking like a nice day up there just in time for me. 🙂

    Hope everyone had a great thanksgiving. Gameday!!

  46. There is a term, “climate forcing”. It defines a condition that “forces” a pattern to be a certain way even when all other signals are showing a different pattern. It is difficult to gauge the strength and influence of a forcing mechanism and it often does not become apparent until the change is nearly underway. It can also look menacing and do nothing. That is yet another example of the fickleness of the atmosphere and another reason that meteorology is labeled, rightly, “inexact”. It may frustrate people to realize there is varying amount of uncertainty in which we are able to predict weather, though it should come as no surprise to anybody who is actually understanding what is being attempted.

    This climate forcing aspect has been coming into play a couple of times now recently and currently. These tend to play havoc with medium to long range forecasts. The first of these was a very large storm system, originally a typhoon by the name of Nuri, which, as we know, transitioned to a very large extratropical storm (not highly unusual actually, happens pretty much every season at one point or another, and sometimes up to several times a season). This storm induced a change in the configuration of the mid to upper level pattern as well, changing the overall regime of weather that had been expected in many areas, including North America. We should all be familiar with the results of that, given how chilly it turned out in November and the fact there is snow sitting on the ground in many areas making it look more like Christmas than Thanksgiving.

    So now, we have another climate forcing mechanism in place. This one was actually expected, but its overall impact not completely known. And that impact may change with time as Winter arrives and goes on. The mechanism is a very large dome of cold, Arctic air, that has predictably built up in Siberia and done some cross-polar travel into northern Canada. When synoptic storm systems pass just south of this air mass, they tap into it, and pull some of it southward. This can result in cold shots being greater in magnitude than they would be if the air were not so anomalously cold up there. Does it mean that we are suddenly staying in a cold pattern? Probably not. It will in fact be significantly milder this coming week than it has been the week previous. But a mild week does not immediately shut of the possibility of unsettled weather, which may or may not include snow for at least parts of the region. And as mentioned above, there are some signals that point to this. SOME. Not ALL. I’m not discounting the possibility of such an event here in about a week’s time. Key words; “about a week’s time”. I need not explain that confidence in an outcome of a prognostication about 8 days in advance is, by definition, low. Therefore, the educated reader will file this information in the section that is labeled, “potential outcomes” and pay attention to further discussion on it as the time gets closer, to see if there are changes.

    I hope this helps. And now I begin a 12+ hour decorating marathon so I can turn this house into Christmas starting tomorrow at dusk. 🙂

  47. Channel 4 Winter Outlook – A couple of summary points

    1. Above Average Snowfall

    …Nevertheless, we feel that with potential phasing episodes of the polar and subtropical jet streams, some nor’easters will be in the works. Consequently, we are projecting snowfall as much as 10-20″ above the average for much of the region. This equates to a range of 55-65 inches in Boston.

    2. Below To Much Below Average Temperatures

    Excellent Write-up

    Now we shall see who is more correct.

    Either way, Boston looks to get in on some Snow action this Winter. I can deal with that.

  48. Hmmm

    I don’t like I see down the road for the next 10 days or so.
    I see a ZONAL flow and when it breaks, it’s with a massive lakes cutter.
    Then after that it looks to get interesting.

    TK I wish you could share your signs so we become more enlightened. 😀

  49. Currently 33 in Green Bay, However Arctic Front is only miles away. Fear the game
    will be MUCH COLDER than I had originally anticipated.

    According the HRRR game time temperature in the 20s with game ending
    temperatures in the teens. Wind chill nearing 0 late in the game.

    Brrrrrr

  50. Green Bay forecast, about 25 degrees at gametime dropping into the teens by game end with a stiffening NW wind behind an arctic front. First game with gloves for Brady i bet. This will be a tough one to win.

    1. This will indeed be a severe test. I honestly think that Brady is up for it.
      He’s a pretty tough guy, even IF he often coms across as so MetroSexual.

      Metrosexual is a portmanteau, derived from metropolitan and heterosexual, coined in 1994 describing a man who is especially meticulous about his grooming and appearance, typically spending a significant amount of time and money on shopping as part of this.

      1. portmanteau – a word or morpheme whose form and meaning are derived from a blending of two or more distinct forms (as smog from smoke and fog)

  51. WOW! Where did this wind come from.

    Will it cause temps to reach or exceed 60 tomorrow? OR will the front come through
    too soon to prevent that.

    Temps are soaring today. Up to 49.7 here already, destine to surpass predicted highs for certain.

  55. Zonal flow takes over with a brief interlude on Tuesday. Sadly, I see this occurring and reoccurring throughout the winter. Not continuously, but still. I don’t understand WBZ’s thinking on this winter, especially the below to well below average temps. What is their explanation? I’d say the chances are greater that we experience more of this week’s weather this winter than well below average temperatures. Of course, snow is a different story. It doesn’t need to be particularly cold to snow. However, there’s a correlation between cold winters and snowy ones, and vice versa.

    1. Their explanation…
      Most global factors this fall do indicate another robust snow season ahead as North Atlantic blocking will be more of a player. Last winter, blocking was negligible resulting in no blockbuster storms. There were several systems but they were all progressive and moved out quickly. With blocking in play especially later this January and February, bigger storms are a threat. A couple of factors hint that more aggressive blocking may steer storms on a more southerly route across the Mid-Atlantic region. So there are some conflicting cross currents here.
      Nevertheless, we feel that with potential phasing episodes of the polar and subtropical jet streams, some nor’easters will be in the works.
      Complete article – http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/11/29/eye-on-weather-2015-winter-forecast/ (previously posted by Hadi)

  57. I have updated the blog early because I have no idea when I’m going to finish decorating tonight and how worn out I will be at that time. 😉

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