Milder Pattern Takes Hold

148 Comments

3:21PM

The advertised milder pattern has arrived, but will not be without a few chilly days. Today was one, much cooler than the very mild temperatures enjoyed on Monday. But the mild air is going to return tonight and Wednesday, this time with some unsettled weather. As a warm front approaches tonight, a band of precipitation will move in from the southwest. It will be cold enough for some snow and sleet to start, especially northwest of Boston, with mostly rain to the southeast. All areas will transition to rani as warm air moves in during the night. The rain exits during Wednesday but clouds will be stubborn. Despite that, look for a decent temperature rise on a gusty southerly breeze. A cold front will sweep through from west to east Wednesday night but will do so without precipitation. This will return cooler air to the region for Thursday and Friday. By the time we get to the weekend and early next week, it still looks like a bit of an unsettled pattern shaping up. For now it looks like it will be too mild for more than a mix to rain. Some guidance has hinted at a stronger storm trying to form, but it’s too early to have any confidence in such an outcome.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation develops from southwest to northeast in the form of rain from the immediate Boston area southward and as snow/sleet to the northwest of the city with some minor accumulation of up to 1 or 2 inches may occur mainly outside of I-495 from near Route 2 into southwestern NH, then rain all areas by late evening but a brief period of freezing rain possible in some of the valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures starting out around 30 well northwest of Boston and 30s to 40 elsewhere, rising into the 40s all areas overnight. Wind light E, later shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain mainly through midday. Highs in the 50s. Wind S 15-25 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows around 25. Highs around 40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

148 thoughts on “Milder Pattern Takes Hold”

  2. Thanks TK. From the looks of your high temps, including today, only 2 out of the next 7 days are above average. All other days are either right around average or slightly below.

  4. Thanks TK. Might get a little interesting for me tonight in Plymouth, NH. Probably about 2-4″ of snow and maybe a little light freezing rain accumulation.

  5. Thanks, TK.

    I think you’re underestimating the upcoming `warmth.’ 50s not only tomorrow, but also from Saturday moving forward. Miserable weather if you ask me. Low 50s and rain showers. Who the heck wants that? I don’t mind it cold and sunny without snow because at least you see the sun, you breath fresh air, you feel invigorated. Give me last January, for instance! I detest days like today and what we’ve got in store. Dark, dull, dreary, depressing, overcast, showery, Edgar Allen Poe like weather with no redeeming features. I pray that this pattern doesn’t last too long.

  6. for those that are wondering tom nailed it the eye of a hurricane is both high and low pressure so it would technically be neither

    1. Actually it would technically be both, but explanation is needed…
      High pressure aloft, low pressure at the surface. 🙂

  8. NOT much precip heading this way. And when meaningful precip arrives later,
    well you know the drill. It WILL be too warm aloft, if not at the surface by then. 😀

    Oh well. Fast forward a couple of weeks and we’ll see if Mother Nature has changed
    her tune or not? 😀

  9. IS this possible?????

    WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 27s28 seconds ago
    Liking the 500mb height pattern a la ECMWF weeklies for a possible eastern U.S. Christmas snow storm.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B34fClqIQAEFBag.png

    Christmas is what 23 days away and someone is liking the set up for a snow storm?

    What am I missing here? There are NO particulars, just a pattern set up?

    Sure as hell does NOT mean a snowstorm. Could? sure? BUT maybe not, perhaps even likely NOT.

  10. Thanks tk 🙂

    I’m just telling you how it is, you can believe or not, but it’s fact that there will be lawncare companies applying lime in late feb early March, a matter of fact I saw 2 companies today applying winterizers, yes thats a fertilizer and not even a lime , AND in liquid form LOL, I will not name any companies, but they were big, no I don’t use liquid, neither do I apply anything this time of year other than deep root feedings for ornamental trees, but just stating the facts. I at one time was with one of those big companies and they have spring meetings in early feb, and as soon as the ground can mostly be seen, they r out there. Like I’ve said you would be very suprised 🙂

    1. It’s kinda like landscapers, there just finishing up last mowings bc of the coating of snow there was on ground and now there all frantically now doing and finishing fall clean ups, the weather rarely effects, you just adjust 🙂

      1. Oh I certainly believe they do it. I respect your knowledge in the field you are I am sure very good in. I just don’t think it’s Spring on February 25. 🙂

  14. O.S. .. Reliable long range guidance that has a good track record is showing the cold coming back around December 20 (this is about 10 days later than originally anticipated before the pattern readjustment).

    It’s not a guarantee of snow but the pattern would favor it.

      1. He isn’t really calling for a snowstorm on Christmas itself. What the comment means is the setup favors “possible” snow on or around Christmas. That could be somewhere in the December 20-25 period, for example.

  18. That would be the frozen precipitation at the start, northwest of Boston, mentioned in the forecast above. 🙂 Of course, JUST cold enough for some snow even in the city itself. 🙂

        1. I know it’s going to warm up and melt, but it still makes me sad – the snow is so pretty :'(

  20. About 6pm, there was light snow falling and now, it has transitioned to mostly light rain with a few wet snow flakes mixed in. Raw …….

  21. Drove down to Braintree. First it was rain and snow mixed then it switched to a very solid snowfall. Arrived here 1/2 hr ago. Have no clue what it is doing now. Radar looks full.

  22. Liquid coming out of the sky. Even if it’s a `wintry mix’ it won’t matter. Nothing will stick. Notice how precipitation of some kind has become an almost daily routine, and that ain’t changing soon. Ah, reminds me of living in Amsterdam. I loved it there, but could do without the constant barrage of drizzle, light rain, and mostly cloudy days. They called them “the grays.” Today was a perfect example of a gray, raw day.

    I’m glad TK seems to think a pattern change back to winter will occur around the 20th. I trust his judgment. I would hate to see the entire pre-Christmas period look more like April than December.

  25. As you may or may not have seen, I enjoy data ….. I noticed earlier in the day about a date of Feb 25th mentioned and some back and forth discussion about that time period and so, I got interested in what the recent past has occurred around this time.

    I found it annoying to have to include the last 3 days of February, so, I just took a look at March.

    March 2010 …… About 0.3 inches of snow, temp departure : +5.0F ….. 15 days had a high temp of 50F or higher !!

    March 2011 …… 1.3 inches of snow, temp was exactly avg for the month ….

    March 2012 ….. 0.6 inches of snow, temp departure : +8.4F !!! ….. 17 days had a high temp of 50F or higher, of which ….. 11 days were 60F or higher, of which ….. 7 were 70F or higher and one of those was 83F. Nutty !!!

    March 2013 ….. 20.6 inches of snow, temp departure : -0.7F …. 8 days had a high temp of under 40F.

    March 2014 …. 2.2 inches of snow, temp departure : -4.8F ….. 14 days had a high temp of under 40F, of which 3 had high temps under 30F !!!

    Highly variable I guess 🙂

  26. A lot of that snow in March 2013 came from that storm early that month that was 600 miles offshore. It was amazing how a storm that far offshore produced close to a foot in parts of eastern Massachusetts.

      1. You probably wiped if from your memory because of the severity. Or am I thinking of another storm. I thought horrible tree damage and also shore flooding/coastal damage

  27. Thanks TK! 😀

    I love when it rains at night. 🙂

    I actually didn’t mind how cold it was today. It was nice. I just have to stop forgetting to bring my gloves…:P

  28. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-animated.gif

    Well, the upper winds dont look conducive for development, but thats the most cloudiness I’ve seen in the Caribbean in a while.

    The southern portion looks like it contains some thunderstorms.

    Is this a watcher for potential tropical development ?

    I’d figure its climatologically about the only place it could happen in December.

  29. Good morning!!! Temp is already 40 degrees before sunrise, in December!!!!! Off to work, good day everyone, should be in the low 50’s this afternoon. 🙂

    Happy Holidays!!

  30. NWS out of Taunton hinting as possible wintry precipitation for interior.
    Found this interesting for early next week from NWS out of Albany, NY
    THERE IS A BROAD CONSENSUS THAT STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
    PHASES WITH WHATEVER DEVELOPS OFFSHORE…POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING
    STRONGER LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER…THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH COLD AIR IN
    PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAY BE
    POSITIONED TOO FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN CANADA TO PUSH THE COLDEST
    AIR INTO OUR REGION.

  31. I think the 00z EURO was trying to set a record for how many lows can pass by New England in a 10 day outlook. Quite entertaining …..

    1. It really feels like living in England or the Netherlands. Constant passing of Lows. An occasional glimpse of the sun. Moderate temps with a dip and rise here and there. This is what winter generally feels like in that part of the world.

      We were due for this kind of weather, I must admit. It’s been dry and often sunny for so long. Even last winter was relatively dry. We’ve had so many sunny days in the past few years. I’m afraid this current pattern will last a long time. Umbrella’s, boots, windbreakers, fleeces. It may be that kind of winter.

      1. I absolutely can’t stand a string of cloudy miserable days. I need sunshine, interspersed with Storminess.

        other than a “possible” weekend storm, I still hate the outlook for quite awhile. 850MB temperature anomalies are off the chart
        in 10 days.

        YIKES

  32. Woke up to find it 37. Still is 37. I expected it to be in the 40s. What’s up.
    Is it still going to be as mild today as forecast?

    JR has 33 for Monday and the word ICY on his 7 day forecast. hmmm

    1. All sorts of model divergence regarding timing and strength of any would be
      weekend storminess.

      Euro is even hinting at a possible changeover to snow.

      Perhaps it gets interesting, but more likely to be a plain RAIN event.

      1. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 2m2 minutes ago
        Quite unlikely Boston proper bursts into the core of the mild air in SE MA – 40s more likely than 50s for you, still milder than tomorrow

  37. Gil Simmons our meteorologist here at WTNH in CT said this morning Saturday rain. Early next week Rain for the shoreline interior sections trending colder possible wintry precipitation.

    1. Let’s see IF the Euro is KING for this upcoming Possible situation.

      Models are all over the place on this one.

      Looks to be plenty of qpf, so whoever gets snow, IF anyone, it could be
      substantial. Still Likely to be a RAIN event, but there is time and it appears
      to be trending colder.

      We shall see.

  38. I wonder if this will be like the Pre Thanksgiving Day storm where areas near and at the coast saw in some areas an inch plus of rain and areas in the interior particularly up in elevation had 6 plus inches of wet snow.

    1. You’re so confident. Much still up in the air. Agreed that RAIN is the
      LIKELY outcome, but that is not final just yet. 😀

      We shall see IF Euro is indeed KING.

  40. Breaking….

    cott Zolak retweeted
    Jake Wesley MLB ‏@mlb_nl_al 13m13 minutes ago
    BREAKING: Jon Lester has agreed to a deal with the Chicago Cubs. Per @MibeltRodriguez

      1. They OBVIOUSLY did NOT want him, else he could have been
        signed EASILY before the start of last season. Plain and simple.

        I can see ONLY 2 possible reasons for this and I mean NO
        insensitivity whatsoever, just trying to be real:

        1. It is related to the beer and chicken fiasco from the 2012
        season. Red Sox brass don’t forget these things.
        2. And I hate to use this, but perhaps it’s like Prego. It’s in
        there? Lingering fears that there might be a recurrence of his
        cancer before the contract is up. (seriously if these bozos
        were worried about that, couldn’t they get an insurance policy
        from someplace like Llyods of London?)

        Can anyone think of another reason? He’s the BEST pitcher available. There IS a reason they didn’t want to sign him.
        If they did, he would have been signed.

        1. Its also possible he just decided he didn’t want to play here anymore. As much as he said he wanted to stay, that could have just been a PR move so he wouldn’t be booed when he came back for another team. More athletes do this than people realize. Some just need a change of scenery.

          1. Oh sure, you could be absolutely correct.
            But one would have to ask why?

            Right now, the why would be that those Turkeys
            didn’t sign him before last season started. If that’s the case, I wouldn’t come back IF I were he.

  41. Wundermaps EURO snowmaps are so inaccurate it’s laughable. They were showing 8+” of snow for Boston even up to the day of the pre-thanksgiving storm. Their algorithms are poppycock

    1. Ace, that may be, BUT look at the parameters that are simply being reported
      as output from the EURO run. The parameters SUPPORT SNOW.
      The QPF is there. You do the Math. Now there are ratio issues, boudar layer, warm ground etc. etc. to cut down on accumulations, but there is SOMETHING
      there. 😀

  42. I read the other day the Cubs offered 138 million to Lester. I wonder the length of the contract is and if he got more than 138 million that was reported. They got a great manager in Joe Maddon who turned the Rays around now if you get Lester you got the pieces in places to get that organization turned around.

  43. Hmmm Now what?

    Lou Merloni retweeted
    Rob Bradford ‏@bradfo 1m1 minute ago
    Source: No deal for Lester right now with any team. Still “going through the process”

  44. Sox tried to go cheap on Lester with the ridiculous $70 million offer in March, and sh#% happens when you do that!

    I understand Lester’s decision, and Maddon’s. While it’s about money, certainly, it’s also about legacy. The Cubs have been perennial losers forever. Now, with a good manager at the helm along with an ace who has proven himself as a post-season gem, they may finally make Cub fans happy after all these years. I think Lester wants to be a part of that. He has nothing to really prove or be excited about in SF or Boston.

    Back to weather. OS et al., don’t get your hopes up about this weekend. Sure, it’s colder today than was forecast (useless, awful, raw, dank cold if you ask me), but the overall pattern is mild, mild, and mild. I don’t expect any snow this weekend. Just rain at the coast and even much of the interior. I also expect a barrage of rain events to impact us the coming 7-10 days. Believe me, those who don’t like winter and say they’re okay with this weather will soon change their minds. The gloominess will boost sales of Prozac, but will dampen Christmas spirits, literally.

    1. Boy you’re a real DEBBIE DOWNER these days.

      I disagree about this weekend. COlder air lurking “just” to our North.
      Something “could” happen. Probably not, but “could”.

      We wait and we wait and we wait.

      1. We can’t give up on Christmas snow just yet…22 days away. 🙂

        I would rather have snow closer to Christmas Day. If you get it all now it will surely melt away especially here in SNE. I have seen it too often.

        Let’s see what happens around the 20th?? 😉

        1. Not much wiggle room.

          All we can do is Wait and see. It will either be a white Christmas or it Won’t. Climatology says it won’t.

  45. 12Z GFS re: Weekend storm

    GFS has a MUCH WEAKER system and has it slide just underneath us throwing
    RAIN into our area, with a possible brief change to snow at the end as COLDER
    air works in. It shows a 1040 mb high in Souther Quebec to our North.

    IF this colder air works in quicker, there would be more snow. But total qpf not
    so big anyway.

    1. What I don’t understand is that the GFS has NO CLUE about this?????

      I wonder what the 12Z runs will show??? Curious as can be.

  47. I am hoping this time will be different because the last two White Thanksgiving’s that happened where I am 2005 2002 we did not have a White Christmas. Interesting that both those winters 02-03 and 05-06 have above normal snowfall for my area.

  48. Forecasting becomes much easier when one begins to think of the atmosphere for what it really is: 3 dimensional, fluid.

      1. I bet you could have become a very good meteorologist.

        Already said something similar about Tom on a recent blog.

        You both have a “sixth sense” when it comes to weather.

      1. That’s PLUS 36 F

        If some place in Minnesota has an average high of say 20.
        then we’re looking at 56?? It’s actually about 28. SO add
        36 to that and we get 64 for Dec. 18th? WOW!

  50. Watch the Euro storm. Probably rain for SNE this weekend, but beyond that things could get interesting. Looks ripe for a coastal storm. Precip type will still be an issue, but it’s worth watching.

  51. I don’t even see cold enough air for snow about as far as I can see on models, which is coming close to Christmas, this year the pond is still water comparitvely speaking to last year to the exact date, last year we had 2 inches of ice across the pond.

    51.0 degrees light rain 🙂

    1. Charlie, I checked the temps last year for Thanksgiving week and this week. Highs were all into the 40s and lows, except for a few, were above freezing. Can you get two inches of snow with almost no temps below freezing?

      1. Better check again, once it got cold last year it was cold. Na firefighters were filling up the local local pond On dec 1st last year and it was full of kids skating the following weekend. This is the pond off of high street. It’s been much warmer to this point compared to last yr, let’s hope it stays that way, it doesn’t look cold or snowy for a while 🙂

          1. I was asking how long you need temps below freezing and what they have to be. I understand depth of water makes a difference.

  53. It’s too warm for snow, yes, but to call this 7-10 day period mild? I think that’s a stretch. Daytime temps in the mid 40’s is not mild. Maybe for Jan or Feb, but for early Dec. its perfectly average. I understand the min temps (overnight lows) will be above average, but who cares when we’re in our beds sleeping? It’s when most people are awake that matters IMO. Yes, beyond 10 days models are indicating much warmer temps, but many things are predicted 10+ days out that don’t usually come to fruition or end up much less dramatic. I believe this is what will happen.

  54. 12z Euro looks like it’s gonna bring the double whammy again 🙂

    The first low OS was posting about moves out but another one forms behind it further offshore. What an event that would be.

  55. I will take any snow over this Yuck weather. I hate days like this December through March that are cloudy and rainy.
    Hopefully there will be some white stuff next week.

  56. AceMaster, your point is a good one on average daytime temps. Mid 40s is average for daytime highs in early December. However, a: I think the highs from this weekend on will be closer to 50F and above than 45F, and as we progress deeper in the month the differential between long-term average temps and actual daytime temps (I think they approach 60F by the middle of the month in some locations) will increase significantly; b. What is anomalous and will be considered highly unusual over time is the number of frost-free nights in December. We could wind up with only a handful of nights (!) that get below 32F. That is truly anomalous.

    I went out on a limb the other day suggesting the average temperature in December could break records across much of the Northeast. I’m still on that limb. In fact more so today than I was a few days ago.

  57. This was posted on the French Toast Alert System facebook page a little bit ago:

    Oh, ho, what’s this? Nor’easter Sunday into Monday? The NWS (cautious, even if in ALL CAPS) says they’re thinking mainly rain on the coastal plain, but too early to rule out anything.

  58. The Euro is going to be the closest model on this event, but don’t stare too much at the details of placement and low pressure strength just yet.

    It has a decent idea very early. This is the set-up that was showing signs of happening a few days ago, subtly, that prompted my initial statement about the coming weekend. My error was that I was not giving it enough time to evolve. THAT SAID, it does not look like a good set-up for a classic Winter-type storm, i.e., lots of snow.

    What probably happens is we get a very windy rain event with snow confined to the mountains centered around next Monday, and then as we get into the Tuesday/Wednesday time period we get colder but the precipitation becomes more showery as we will be more influenced by back side surface low pressure and a trough overhead. This is actually typical for this kind of storm in a mild pattern. And yes we will still be in the milder regime (compared to November) for a while yet. It really just got underway.

    Eyeing the December 15-20 period for a flip back to a colder pattern, or that is, the beginning of the flip. It may take a full week or 2 to take place.

  59. I’ll try to keep up with the blog as best I can the next few days.

    Have a few projects to finish up for my mom this week. As a few of you know, we also had a death in the family on Monday. My cousin (65 years old) had been battling cancer for over a decade and stage 4 cancer for 4 years (she was a big time fighter). She finally had nothing left to give to the fight and the disease took her, but it will never take away the wonderful memories she gave all of us. I could go on forever telling you all how welcoming and loving she was, and how little of a deal she wanted made of her illness. It was just another thing that life threw at her. She took it in stride. Wake is Thursday evening and funeral is Friday morning.

    To top it off, I caught myself a little virus that has me run-down pretty significantly (stuffy head and body ache kind of virus) so need to get over that and be healthy for the rest of the season. I’m upbeat about it all. 🙂

    2. TK what wonderful memories you have. Your cousin sounds as if she was an amazing person. What a difficult time for you and your family. We are all thinking of you. Please do not worry about the blog. Take care of yourself and we will play here. While we play will will keep you in our thoughts and prayers.

    1. I think February will be the snow month for New England.

      January, AO may be so negative that everything is south and we’re cold/dry. That’s the leaning in this camp right now.

      Mild but variable December, cold/dry January, less cold but snowy February and early March, then quick end to Winter and going mild/dry.

  64. Thank you all 🙂

    Instead of Thursday/Friday it’s a 2PM-7PM wake Friday and a Saturday morning funeral. Big family to start with, and between her and her husband, they knew just about everyone in the city and many others outside of it. 🙂

  65. well well well then. the euro is predicting something that could get interesting. trust me would love this but also hate this . Hope it does not cancel class tuesday, but I know since i do not want it, it will happen lol need tuesday to talk to my stats professor lol

    1. The Monday/Tuesday set-up based on the positioning would end up mostly rain. Major saturation with mild marine air. It’s the low after that one that would have a better shot of producing frozen stuff.

  68. Re next event. Regardless of current projected temperature profiles
    It still needs to be watched carefully. There will be cold air nearby.

    Look forward to reviewing late runs tomorrow am

  70. Sorry for your loss TK, take care, and feel better!

    Boy, have a look at this typhoon in the West Pacific. Name is “Hagupit”. The eye isn’t quite completely clear yet, but satellite intensity estimates indicate it is close to Category 5 intensity and likely to strengthen further. Just on the left edge of the image you can start to make out the eastern Philippine islands, with which it is on a likely collision course.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/imagery/avn0-lalo.gif

    1. Wow !! Amazing central dense overcast, eye, etc …… They just make em different over there in the western Pacific.

  72. Nice shower band moving across eastern MA. Just had a brief wind-driven downpour here.

    Just updated the blog!

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