Midweek Update

211 Comments

8:47PM

A cold front is slicing through southeastern New England with one final band of rain showers this evening.

Once the cold front has cleared the region it will open the door to drier and colder air which will flow into southeastern New England through Thursday, max out Thursday night as high pressure crests overhead, and continue into Friday but ease slightly as high pressure then slips off to the northeast of the region.

The weekend and early next week look somewhat unsettled with several areas of low pressure effecting the region. There are several possible scenarios and outcomes, but it is too far away to be confident on any details, so for now will just use general wording and fine tune later…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
EVENING: Shower band moves southeastward across eastern MA and RI. Temperatures in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-30 interior, 30-35 coast/urban centers. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40 interior hills, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s elsewhere. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
FRIDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may start as mix interior. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain and wind. Low 35. High 45.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain to snow showers. Low 35. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

211 thoughts on “Midweek Update”

  7. Thanks TK.

    Sorry for your loss and get healthy quickly.

    Euro is in its excellent range so I would dive all in vs. GFS. CMC is also with the euro camp.

    1. NortheastWeatherHQ retweeted
      Mark Searles ‏@NBC10_Mark 8m8 minutes ago
      @NEweatherHQ Yes waiting to see how 00Z Euro looks, likely no change. Ensemble signals were strong. GEM likes Tues!

  9. Good morning!!
    Thanks TK and sorry for your loss, heading out for work, I have 12 deep root feedings today. Not bad out for Dec standards, it’s 36.7 degrees out!!

  10. Hearing the Dec 7th-15th time frame the country will be above normal temp wise, courtesy of the WC and cnn weather

  12. This is instinct with no real facts to back it up …..

    I think I trust the GFS more right now than the EURO …

    1) when there’s high pressure areas occasionally bridging to the north, the suppression of moisture to our south or southeast seems more realistic to me than what the EURO depicts.

    2) it pains me to say this, but lately, I feel like there’s been 2 or 3 times where its been the EURO adjusting to what the GFS has been originally showing in the 5-7 day range as we draw closer to that time range.

    1. Well, the CMC is in CAMP Euro and fwiw, so is the JMA.

      The FIM is not available for more recent runs as I would be most interested
      is seeing that.

      It seems incredulous that there be such a disparity between the GFS and EUro.
      I mean that is amazing.

      Thoughts from Eric Fisher:

      Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 7h7 hours ago
      GFS and ECMWF often at odds, but this is one of the more striking instances I can remember. One with significant storm Mon, one with NADA.

      Since I want the Big Storm, you know the GFS will be correct.

      Tom, you make a convincing argument for your case. It gives me pause that
      the Euro backed off some. However, what is the CMC smoking. 972MB!!!!

      YIKES

      972mb vs NOTHING. Going to be a rough Winter if the models keep
      disagreeing like this. Really tough.

    2. TOM, FWIW, the NWS are giving MORE weight to the Euro due to run-to-run consistency, however, the GFS has given them Pause.

      In other words, that haven’t a CLUE. 😀

        1. Well, I mean not having a CLUE. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

          I really don’t have a feel for what is going to happen early next week.

  15. NWS out of Upton, NY take early next week
    HAVE LEANED
    TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUSLY AMPLIFIED AND PHASED
    ECMWF/GEFS/CMC MEANS…ALL OF WHOSE SPREAD INDICATE A NORTHWARD
    BIAS AND CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR REGION TO BE AFFECTED BY A COASTAL
    LOW IN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.

  16. NWS out of Albany, NY take early next week
    THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY
    ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS…MAKING IT DIFFICULT
    FOR THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TO HONE IN ON ANY ONE SOLUTION.

  17. JJ in other words, the various NWS offices have NO IDEA what will happen.
    In 2014, we STILL don’t know. We just don’t.

    The Euro has backed off some, usually a sign something is NOT going to happen.
    We’ll see what way the 12Z run goes. IF it backs off more, STICK A FORK IN IT.
    IF it comes back to the Nor’easter, then perhaps it WILL happen.

    The CMC is on Steroids!

  18. Regarding the weekend system. Mainly a frontal passage with a couple of waves
    rolling along it. Rain then “perhaps” transitioning to SNOW towards the end of
    the precip. Depends upon which model one views, how much snow falls, IF any. 😀

  19. good morning all, quick question… my 5 and 3 year olds are relentlessly asking about when daddy can flood their ice rink, any thoughts on mid-long term below freezing temps up here in methuen? thanks for the help #worrieddaddy

    1. Honestly does not look good for quite some time.
      Perhaps not till dec 20th or so. Long range just looks to be way too warm. Ssorry. Perhaps there will be a surprise change.

    2. I agree with OS. Some reports put us all in shorts and t-shirts in about 10 days. I don’t think that will happen, but a couple to a few degrees above normal is possible. Bottom line, even to get an inch of water to freeze over solid, daytime temps in the 40’s wont cut it and that’s where we’ll be for a while.

  20. Judging from the weak cold fronts that have passed through Tuesday morning and this morning – and I mean really weak for December standards; more like an early October cold front than early December! – there is just no cold air to speak of which is a key ingredient for any storm to produce snow. Not only do I not think it will snow at all the coming days at the coast (and only a little in the interior, and only in the higher elevations), I think the temperature forecasts are way off. We will easily reach 45F every day from Saturday through mid week (50F is not out of the question), and after that surging, record-shattering warmth (especially in places that have seen record-shattering cold in November, like the Upper Midwest!) for a while. I see no return of cold air to speak of in the mid-range, and I’m very hesitant to buy into long-range models that suggest a return of cold air by around the 20th. Let’s hope it does change, because I could not bear a repeat of 2011-2012.

    1. As much as I hate doom and gloom, I have to pretty much agree with you, except on one point.

      IF and I do say a big IF, everything comes together just right, there “could” be
      snow early next week even on the coast at least around Boston. There “may” be
      “just” enough cold air to our North to ooze into the system. Plus IF it comes
      together just right and BOMBS, there could be abundant Dynamic cooling as well.

      We’ll just have to see.

      I must say last Euro NOT too encouraging. Waiting on 12Z runs

  21. Good news if you love a winter pattern setup the PNA is forecast to be postive
    Bad news NAO and AO also positive. If only the NAO and AO could go negative with a positive PNA the chances of getting snow would be better than they are now.
    Will see what the 12z runs say early next week.

    1. +PNA (ridge west trough east = good storm track)
      +NAO and +AO (no mechanism to release cold air from higher latitudes)

      Summary: generally cloudy and unsettled WET weather in most of NE

  24. Hi Vicki,

    Can you update the list of snowfall predictions over on the Contest page? I believe there were some more posted here and there a few days after the deadline.

    Thanks in advance! 🙂

  25. I know I sound gloomy in my predictions of warmth most of the rest of this month. That’s because I do like winter, so having such a prolonged period of mild air dominate most of the U.S. stinks in my opinion. This said, the set-up is very interesting for data crunchers interested in historical records.

    1. I think that across the Lower 48 the snowpack on December 20th will be minimal (<5%; and perhaps lower than that) and confined mostly to higher elevations. This is truly astounding given that close to 50% of the nation had snow on the ground in mid-November. Even in Canada a lot of snowpack will vanish. Most of the inhabited areas of Canada will not have any snow.

    2. A place like Minneapolis that experienced record cold in November may (probably will) experience record sustained warmth in December. December will likely be warmer on average than November. Not unheard of, of course, but an anomaly to be sure.

    3. Given the fact that the cold air will have retreated to the far northeast of Canada, and even there will not be especially cold, any resurgence of cold air, say, post December 20th, will take time to establish itself over any part of the Lower 48. My best guess is that an intrusion of cold air would be felt first in the Upper Midwest and plains, then in moderated (more autumnal than winter-like) form here in the Northeast.

    Everything is subject to change. We can still have our winter. But, the longer this warm spell lasts the shorter our winter.

  26. The weather in my mind makes attempts to balance itself out and it was colder than normal in November for most of the U.S. now were going to see the opposite in December.

  27. Oops there it is!

    A system developed by the 12Z GFS…

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120412&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=123

    BUT….upper levels looks like CRAP
    500mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120412&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=123

    300mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120412&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=123

    200mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120412&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=123

  29. Looking at the 12Z GFS it seems to make some sense. Getting the feeling that the Euro and CMC are OUT TO LUNCH on this one. Yes, jumping on the TOM bandwagon. 😀 😀 😀

    GFS has caught onto additional Cyclogenesis off the coast early next week, but
    too far out and development too late to get us. Watch out NewFoundland. 😀

    Of course, just to make sure, will be checking in on the 12Z Euro and CMC runs. 😀

    1. I really do need to pick up an almanac. Thanks, JJ, as I find it interesting to see what they get and what they do not.

  32. Interesting….

    Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
    Environment Canada up to 80% certainty of a “warmish” winter in Canada b/c El Nino keeping polar vortex away.

    1. This is what I fear. I never believed the forecasts suggesting a cold winter. I’d be okay with a northward jet stream shift that still had cold air to the north. All it would then take would be the jet stream to shift back to its normal winter position. However, to the north of the jet stream I see nothing but relatively mild air until you get to Ellesmere and Baffin Island. And even there it’s not especially cold for that part of the world. In some ways this may be a worse scenario than 2011-2012. At least during that winter there was sufficiently cold air to our north (QC – 400 miles north of here – got slammed with lots of snow in 2011-2012) that just didn’t reach us because of a stubborn jet stream.

  33. Don’t have ALL of the hours yet, but it “looks” like the CMC has come over
    to the GFS forming the early week storm TOO far off Shore.

    2. Yes, I think I am the guilty party this time. Not Charlie! Watch, I will be totally wrong and have eat my words in early January when it’s -5F and I’m suffering from frostbite after my morning run.

  35. I’m very interested to see the 12z Euro. 12z CMC remains all in for a storm next week. GFS getting there, but still way too far offshore. But the big development off the 12z runs so far is the UKMET, which went from showing nothing last night to now having a monster in 6 days. Last night’s Euro was worthy of pause, but we’ve still got something to watch here. Maybe our last noteworthy feature to watch until around Christmas.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144

  36. Calendar winter has not even started yet. I know a lot of people are going to be saying if there is not a lot of snow in December this winter is going to be a dud. Way too early to say that. Lets see where we are come early February.

    1. I like your sane approach. I’m the one who may insane for closing the book on winter before it even got started.

      Indeed, we shall see where we stand in February 2015.

    2. I doubt very much we go the entire month of December without at least one good snow producer, doubt it very much.

  37. So, 12z runs of GFS and EURO still complete opposites ….. Heck, the 12z EURO got even stronger and closer with its low early next week.

    Heads …. GFS, Tails ……. Euro.

    The coin would probably land on its side. 🙂

    1. I say neither. The GFS and euro are at the extremes of the most probable outcome. No way this is as strong and close as the euro. But on the flip side, we get at least something, so the GFS is out to lunch as well. They’re both out to lunch but at different restaurants.

    2. I hope I have time later to look more closely at the 500mb flows on both and see where and when they handle things so differently and then maybe …. try to figure out which idea makes more sense given what we have been seeing and the time of year.

      1. GFS is blowing chunks on this one, despite what I may have
        thought this morning.

        On board we have:

        EURO
        CMC
        UKMET
        JMA
        FIM sort of. Waiting to see a 12Z run. Can’t see it yet.

        Not on board

        GFS
        DGEX
        NAVGEM

        You be the judge.

  38. If I had to do a model playoff rankings 1 -4 just like college football playoff rankings it would be tough.
    Here would be mine but no one dominate model in the top 4 rankings.
    1. GFS
    2. EURO
    3. CMC
    4. NAM

  39. Unfeakin Believable Snowfall gradient with the 12Z Euro run.

    http://i.imgur.com/Zaw58ID.png

    0 inches to 15+ inches in what, 20-25 miles????????????

    Slight shift to the Wast and WHAMO!!

    I can’t believe that the system will be that close to the coast. Perhaps it will, but seems
    it should be more off, considering the GFS has it WAY out there.

    If nothing else, nice to have a watcher.

    2. Did the pre-thanksgiving storm end up further east than the euro was originally projecting a few days out? I think it did but i forget

      2. I think in the 4 or 5 time timeframe the euro had that storm going right over SE MA or over the canal and it ended up just east of Nantucket. That margin of error in this upcoming storm could mean the difference between snow or rain over a very tight gradient.

        1. Thanks for the Memories Ace. That’s just about what
          we need. We shall see.

          I cannot wrap my arms around the GFS.

          We have some real consistency with a bunch of models, so why is the GFS way out there???

          We shall see.

  42. My Model Rankings:

    Mid range

    1. FIM
    2. Euro
    3. CMC
    4. GFS
    5. JMA
    6. Ukmet
    7. DGEX
    8. NavGem

    Short range

    HRRR
    NAM
    SREF

    RPM IF I had it.

  43. This echos what ive been saying about all this mild weather talk, at least for us in the east. These are departures from normal temps for the 6-10 day period. Yes, way above for the western 2/3rd of the country but the east stays seasonal to a little below normal. Indications of warmth thereafter you say? Well, ironically, this was the same time period showing up on models a week ago to be well above normal.

    https://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10847872_784280344952559_6422937882132832867_n.png?oh=4441a06e9b8e0a182e1c75c41ee61895&oe=551C79B7

  44. Tweet from chief meteorologist Brad Field WVIT CT about POTENTIAL storm next week
    most trusted computer model, by me (European) still has potential Nor’easter early next week (Mon. night – Tuesday) watching!

  46. When the GFS is the only one that is “way out there”, it’s wrong 99% of the time.

    Eastern MA will likely have more rain than anything from the early week storm system.

    1. So far it looks that way, but we’re wishin and a hopin and watching as well. 😀 😀
      Gotta have something.

  49. Good evening!! Chilly day for Dec, looking like lots of rain for the weekend. These sunsets are as early as they get, it sets at 4:11 until Tuesday when it sets at 4:12 🙂

  50. OS, regarding your comments about the GFS. I feel like since last winter, the euro “sees” storms sooner, 2-3 days sooner on average, and locks in on that one solution for days, usually to a fault. Once the GFS finally sees it, it has been extremely accurate and has outperformed the euro on the eventual outcome. It seems to me the euro is being rewarded for predicting a storm far in advance regardless of the eventual finer details. That to me is just wrong. Who cares if it finds a storm 10 days from now but doesn’t get it right in the end.

    1. Looks like they all of the models, put em in a pot, stirred them up and togther and through out a map with the result. 😀

  53. 2 points…

    I like WPC’s initial map. That will probably be somewhat similar to what we get, with eastern MA more than likely experiencing a light to moderate rain event with some wind. I’d say 75% chance it’s something like this, close to but weaker than Euro, and 25% chance it is a little closer to the GFS solution.

    Although the Euro has been decent with seeing storms and placing them in the general vicinity of where they end up, it has not been so good on forecasting temperature regimes. The chilly bias it has is overdone and will probably end up being quite a bit off from what actually takes place. CPC agrees. The only below normal area in 6-10 day forecast is Florida. 8-14, entire country above normal except Florida, near normal.

    CPC finally came around to the dry trend that was seen toward mid month. I think after the early week threat, it’s December drought time.

    1. I did notice how much warmer the CMC looks. We know it will be tough
      to get snow in Eastern sections out of this. But as long as there is a “chance”, no matter how small, we’ll be excited.

      If system is strong enough and track decent, then this “could” be one of
      those Dynamic Cooling systems? No?

      Will be interesting to watch.

      Tides are astronomically high next week, so any big wind would be a concern, rain and/or snow.

      1. Dynamic cooling would come into play under the right setup. But this is likely going to be one of those no-wins if you want snow. There’s no real cold air around, and if the storm is too close, the boundary layer is flooded with too much warmth, and if it’s more of a benchmark system it will probably be too weak to produce heavy enough precipitation for dynamic cooling enough to overcome the mildness of the airmass, and it will be fairly mild in the atmosphere as a whole as this entire thing sets up.

        1. OH, I do understand that, but I’ve seen ole Mother Nature fool us before with these type set ups. One never knows, but CLEARLY the odds FAVOR exactly what you are saying. Even though I know this, I keep looking for ways it can/could snow. But then, you knew that. 😀

          Do you remember the 2nd 2 foot storm of February 1969? It was very MILD on Sunday, temps near 50, drizzly yucky day. Don Kent was on the Sunday Broadcast and he talked about a “vest pocket” low moving up with rain changing to snow. Monday AM
          I drive to work (coop job) in moderate to heavy WET snow. It snowed and snowed and snowed. COLDER air did NOT work into the system until 3 or 4 PM. It was snowing with the MILDER air. Boston ended up with
          26 inches.

          Clearly I am NOT saying this is the same set up. Just that we NEVER know for certain. 😀

          1. Well, I was 3 months sky of my 2nd birthday so I can’t say I remember it. 😉 But yes, I am familiar with the weather that month. 🙂

            Certainly easier to have that happen during late Winter, climatologically, versus now.

  54. I like the title of the latest post by Mr. Bastardi on weatherbell this afternoon “GFS vs. The World”….he said he thinks it will be 8-10 degrees below normal rather than the 4-8 degrees above normal the GFS is computing for the Tuesday storm. And long range warmth appears to be shrinking and he thinks it may return to normal or close to but not a blow torch as some are forecasting. He’s had a heck of a fall/early winter accuracy thus far going to put my stakes in the snow camp.

  55. Ready for a good ole fashioned EL NINO read? Nicely Done.

    http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino-update-it-is-here-now-and-is-impacting-circulation-but-dont-cancel-off-winter-just-yet/

    Quick Summary:

    BOTTOM LINE: The forecast across the U.S. during the December month aggregate looks plain out warmer than average and is likely a response to an El Nino base state. But there are signs that suggest this state may start to weaken a bit in the future months, which is just a piece of the puzzle that could allow for arctic air to return across the CONUS.

      1. Certainly not as powerful as the Euro or CMC, but a system none-the-less. Too bad it’s so damn warm.

  59. If I was a TV guy, all I would say today was that we were still watching the potential for some storminess early in the week, and leave it at that. 🙂

    I know my news director would want a rain/snow line, start time, end time, a prediction on how many loaves of bread the Stop & Shop on Route 60 in Medford needs to stock, and countless other things. But he wouldn’t get any of it.

  60. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Euro weeklies show a very warm pattern mid-month followed by a dramatic cold shot for the end of December

    1. Barry mentioned on air about a mild/warm mid-month as well. It will be interesting if we get snow along with the cold thereafter.

  61. I am going with the mind set not to see any snow until around or after Christmas. Hopefully it happens sooner. Early next week at this point looks like a mixorama for where I am in CT snow to mix to rain just like what happened the day before Thanksgiving.

    1. Yup. Surely looks that way, unless there is some sort of miracle on
      Tuesday. Short of that, Christmas or beyond. 😀

  62. Hi Vicki,

    I am reposting this again:

    At your conveniece, can you update the snowfall predictions on the Contest page? I believe there are some numbers that were posted after the “official” deadline.

    Thanks in advance! 🙂

    1. The warm-up he’s talking about comes through mid December but not really indicative of later in the Winter. They have solid basis for the forecast they made. I just happen to only partially agree with the reasoning. I think we will have a period of above normal snow after the coldest part of Winter. Jury’s out whether Boston reaches their normal snow or not. I feel they fall just shy but it may be very close.

      We must not put too much weight on the pattern of late Autumn with respect to later Winter. Two different animals. So much can happen between now and then.

      Barry is one of the best in the business. On par with Harvey without question. Take it from someone who’s been in the business for a very long time and has known Barry for years. Don’t forget, Harvey also leaned toward cold/snowy for the Winter.

    1. It wouldn’t be the first time. December 2011 Logan received 0.0″ most recent and a few other years if I am not mistaken.

  65. Two years ago in December 2012 Boston had 0 inches of snow. Everyone was saying its going to be another dud winter like 11-12. Then the calendar turned to February had the blizzard and foot of snow early March and I believe Boston ended up with over 60 inches of snow.
    Getting ready to watch the Cowboys play the Bears. I am hoping this is a December to remember for the Cowboys but December not a good month for Romo with a 12-17 record and only two wins in week 17 since 2000.

    1. Cowboys are kicking some butt tonight.

      Bruins are out in San Jose tonight and up 2-0 just 2 minutes into the game.

  67. I know most of you are sleeping while I am watching this wild Bruins game…
    7 goals total so far not even half way through the game. 🙂

  71. GFS is still WILDLY different than ALL other models.
    One thing that is consistent among them all is the WARMTH of this upcoming
    system. Both of them for that matter.

    1. Not even the Euro Wundermap shows any snow for SNE. Nice chunk up in Maine, but not here. It has storm spinning over us for DAYS. Closed low at 500MB right over us.

      Nice storm, too warm.

      Whatis up with the GFS??? Crazy

  72. Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 2m2 minutes ago
    Positive NAO and ECMWF model bouncing all over the place with the storm next does not bring a lot of confidence.

  73. Hi Philip – I posted the now totals on the contest page. Sorry, I didn’t see the previous request. Thank you for posting it again.

  74. From this morning’s NWS discussion from Taunton.

    THE 12Z
    ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND THEREFORE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION…WHICH TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

    The 0Z run had been long out and they’re going with the previous 12Z run.

    What are they smoking down there???????????????????????

  75. A comparison of 0Z Euro operational and Ensemble mean

    http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014120500!!chart.gif

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2014120500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2014120500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

    No a whole lot of spread there.

  78. 12Z NAM for 7PM Monday night

    Surface

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120512&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    850MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120512&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    500 MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120512&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    200Mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120512&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    I’m sure the 200MB winds will be backing some and the 500 MB will as well, resulting
    in the system coming up here for sure. Exact track, up in the air. I could come in tight
    or it could be BM or perhaps outside of that. I sure don’t know. But it’s coming.

    Looking interesting, although likely still too warm. We shall see.

  79. the storm looks like mainly rain, no accumulation in eastern sections. at best we see some flakes toward the beginning and ends of both of the systems, its just part of that stupid pacific jet, its good for California but I hate it.

    1. Do you really prefer mild and wet in December to cold, sunny, and sometimes snowy? I know you’re a spring guy, and I get that, especially after a long winter. But, do you also like spring weather in December? I must say that mild and wet does not get me in the mood for Christmas and the holidays. I count my blessings, though. Yesterday and this morning felt normal, and we got to see the sun. I’m afraid this brief flirt with normal is about to change in a big way.

    2. Not to mention, mild and wet is not the best thing for dormant vegetation and grasses. Without a frozen preserved ground (and preferably snow covered) it becomes a breeding ground for molds and diseases which will affect the springtime growing season.

      1. My forecast included all of December, part of meteorological winter. Granted we are only 5 days in… 🙂

  87. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 23m23 minutes ago
    As of now, odds favor rain over snow for much of the Mon. Nt./Tue. storm near & along coast #WCVB
    0 replies 1 retweet 0 favorites
    Reply Retweet1 Favorite
    More
    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 25m25 minutes ago
    Rain/snow line uncertain at this time with regard to late Mon. Nt./Tue storm #WCVB

    1. This just keeps get more horrific by each run!

      It’ll be BEACH weather!!!

      How did it get tucked up in there so far??????

  92. NWS Upton has a nice write on potential storm. BIG SNOWS for NW of NYC.
    They’re ALL IN with the Westward trends.

    IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX…AN INITIAL SHOT OF WAA PRECIP MON
    NIGHT-TUE MORNING…WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT BUT REMAINING COLD AT THE SFC AS THE ARCTIC HIGH DEPARTS…COULD YIELD A PD OF SNOW CHANGING TO MIXED PRECIP INLAND…WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST. THEN AS THE COASTAL LOW WINDS UP…THINK PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALL RAIN…WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN STRENGTHENING ATLANTIC INFLOW AND COUPLED JET ENERGY. AS THE LOW REACHES PEAK INTENSITY…WOULD EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING WITH DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD PRECIP TO THE NORTH/WEST OF THE SFC LOW TO QUICKLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO ACCUMULATING SNOW NORTH/WEST OF NYC
    TUE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING…WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. FARTHER SOUTH/EAST…A MORE GRADUAL CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP AND THEN LIGHT SNOW FOR NYC METRO…COASTAL SECTIONS AND SE CT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING APPEARS MORE LIKELY. EXACT SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE UNCERTAIN… BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A PD OF STRONG E-NE WINDS SOME TIME TUE NIGHT THAT COULD IMPACT COASTAL SECTIONS IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH.

  93. I’m really starting to enjoy being in central NH 🙂 🙂

    A couple inches of snow tonight, and if we’re lucky maybe a lot of inches mid next week! This is from the Gray, ME NWS discussion.

    .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/…
    HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR SUN-MON WITH SUNNY BUT COLD
    TEMPS.

    THE POTENTIAL MAJOR EVENT AND ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE MODELS
    TRYING TO DEVELOP A MAJOR SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FOR THE TUE-
    WED AND PSBLY EVEN INTO EARLY THU TIMEFRAME. THE 12Z EURO
    CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO ITS PAST SIMILAR SCENERIO OF A STRONG
    NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
    PICKING UP THE LEFTOVER WEAKENING S/WV SITTING OFF THE COAST FROM
    THE SRN STREAM. THE PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS ALLOWS THE RAPID
    VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE
    ENERGY ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM HUGGING THE MID ATLANTIC
    COAST AS IT TRACKS NORTH AND MAKE FOR A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
    AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY
    THURSDAY.

    THE CONTINUITY OF THE EURO CAN NO LONGER BE IGNORED WHILE THE GFS
    NOW APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND APPEARS TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH
    ITS INITIALIZATION. CMC MODELS ALSO SHOWING A MAJOR EVENT. IF THE
    EURO IS CLOSE TO BEING CORRECT LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF WOULD EXPECTED
    AND THE NEXT PROBLEM WOULD ALSO BE THE PTYPE THROUGH THE EVENT.

    FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE DISCUSSION HERE AND SEE IF THE EURO
    SCENERIO CONTINUES TO PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS. STAYED
    VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR POPS AND TEMPS IN THE TUE-
    THU TIME FRAME. POPS ON WED AND THU MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER. TEMP
    ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AS
    THEY WILL BE TRACK DEPENDANT.

    Even here in Plymouth, NH we may struggle to hold onto all snow if that 12z Euro verifies.

    1. I think you’re good. What is your elevation at your location?
      I see downtown Plymouth is at 514 feet.

      1. Not sure exactly, but the University is located very close to downtown. You have to go up a sizable hill, so probably around 550ft.

  94. WIMPY day temperaturewise. Got up to 42 here after a low around 26 this
    morning. Actually a very nice early December day, even a few degrees below average. 😀

  95. Reasoning on why I do not think it will be that tight to the coast but it will be weaker and give us rain in the coastal plain.
    look at the euro ( very close and strong)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014120512/ecmwf_T850_us.html
    then look at the ens euro. (some what weaker and further out to sea)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2014120512/ecmwf-ens_T850_us.html
    now look at the gfs (almost nothing but a cold front on the 8 or 9th)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014120512/gfs_T850_us.html
    Now look at the gfs ens (much weaker storm system and further out to sea not a cold front)
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014120512/gfs-ens_mslpa_us.html
    gfs parallel two storms
    on the 8th to warm with rain http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014120300/gfsp_z500_mslp_us.html
    then on the 10th (way out to sea) dry and cooler around here
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014120300/gfsp_z500_mslp_us.html
    but then then the gem shows a weaker but warm solution
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2014120512/gem-ens_z500_mslp_us.html
    then the JMA (good placement but to warm.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2014120512/jma_T850_us.html

    So what this means. Many models are putting out a lot of different possibilites. Even thier ensembles do not agree that greatly .

      1. The only arguement i would make for that is this thing wont be in a hurry. Although, i dont see what would keep it around.

  97. I have a feeling even if the storm ends up further east it wont change much in terms of precip type. Too much warmer air will have already worked in.

    1. Correct, and with lack of blocking, the relatively cold air that precedes these storms don’t have an opportunity to stick around. This could be an example of a BM storm that would have to produce its own cold air to produce snow in SNE and that is not the favored solution.

  99. Even though most of us are missing out on these storms clearly we are getting phased systems near or at the BM. If we can keep this up through winter we will be in good shape for those who like snow.

    Charlie I thought you wanted snow from now until xmas but a post earlier indicated you were excited by this pattern. What gives?

      1. Doing well, the nerve burning seems to really have helped. I am waiting to see how it is in the long run ie 3-4 weeks down the road. This is the first time in maybe 2 years I have woken up without pain.

  101. Backside snow, now that’s an interesting fantasy. I do remember a few instances of accumulating backside snow in the late 70s and early 80s, and one in the late 90s. In all 3 instances, I recall a vigorous cold front (I mean a serious Arctic blast) pulling through, with heavy snow squalls as a result. The set-up next week is NOT conducive to anything remotely close to that. Marginal (at best) cold air at the beginning, marginal cool air at the end. It’s very unfortunate the low may traverse the benchmark, because without cold air around the track of the low is meaningless.

    And, to keep things gloomy (though I really did enjoy yesterday and today’s sun and relative cold!), it’s going to warm up folks and it may stay that way for a long time. I don’t know what Bastardi and others are looking at, but a return of cold air is not in the cards for at least a couple of weeks.

  102. Sleet hitting my house right now after a dusting. Tuesday storm is interesting. I’ll be in Newark but who knows, I could see it snowing down there and raining here. It’s happened.

    1. Wow, something I may actually agree with him on.

      Now, we’ll disagree on the precip, because he’ll automatically go snowy, and it’s going to be dry.

  105. Matt… The reason why your comment went to the awaiting moderation folder was because it had 8 links. WordPress settings on this blog automatically count messages with 8 or more links by an unknown users as spam, and by a known user it safeguards by putting it in the folder that needs approval.

    I took care of that message. It should be posted now.

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