Sunday Morning Update

89 Comments

7:32AM

QUICK DISCUSSION…
Clouds depart from NW to SE through midday today, more sun this afternoon but windy as high pressure builds in. This high will be centered to the northeast of southern New England by Monday, and as low pressure organizes to the south a gusty onshore wind will develop, with cold air in place, spelling ocean-effect snow showers. The developing storm will then move northward and impact the region with rain and wind as milder ocean air floods the lower atmosphere Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to park itself right over or near southeastern New England then for the middle of the week before finally wandering off to the east by Friday, with rain showers transitioning to snow showers during this time frame, along with more wind and a cooling trend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Clouds decrease northwest to southeast, with most sun mid afternoon until sunset. Highs 40-45. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH, except 15-30 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increase especially eastern areas overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, with episodes of snow showers with minor accumulation possible, especially near the coast. Partial sunshine with a few snow showers elsewhere. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain. Windy. Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers. Windy. Low 40. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers. Windy. Low 35. High 40.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Windy. Low 30. High 40.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

89 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update”

  1. Thanks TK! I know it’s a little outside your forecast area, but how far up do you think the rain/snow line gets for the meat of the storm? Will it reach me here in Plymouth, NH? I think probably so, but we’re kind of on the edge.

    1. I figure you start as snow up there by early Tuesday morning, some accumulation, then flip flop near the rain/snow line Tuesday afternoon and evening before the warm air aloft changes it to rain/sleet (cold air may be trapped just above the ground for the sleet) late Tuesday night and Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the colder air should be coming back in aloft but by then you’re just into showery precipitation, so, snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday with minor accumulation.

  4. Thank you TK. I hope you are feeling better.

    Looks as if there is a storm for dec 9 after all….just not snow. 36 years ago that date it started as rain and wind and continued through the day. Around 5:00 pm it changed to snow and there was considerable accumulation and thunder snow.

  5. Anyone take a look at the Euro. It depicts this upcoming system milling around from
    Tuesday through the following Tuesday in one form or another. It has it doing a couple of loops moving SW down the coast and then coming back up again. The whole While
    it is WARM (well too warm for snow, not that it will actually be warm).

    What a MISERABLE week ahead! MISERABLE!!!!

    Hope that is it for BullCrap for the rest of the Winter.

    HORRIFIC!

  8. Gloomy is an understatement. My daughter in Edinburgh, Scotland, is having better weather than this! Will the sun even make a cameo appearance today? If it doesn’t, we’ll likely not see the sun until Saturday. Let’s hope they put up some netting around the Tobin Bridge.

    By the way, imagine the difference the Patriots will feel between last week and this. They practiced most of last week in San Diego, which is for all intents and purposes always sunny and mild (never really hot). Then, after tonight’s game, they hop on a red-eye and arrive in gloomsville to a week-long weather show featuring fog, ocean-effect mist and snow-showers, followed by rain, wind, more rain, showers, maybe some snow showers mixed in, more low-lying clouds, drizzle, and more fog. I hope they win tonight, because it’ll feel really brutal if they don’t.

    2. Big game tonight Josh and I see Denver beating the bills today so a win is huge. I think the pats do fine tonight. As far as the weather here for pats go there not an issue even coming off a week of warmth. Josh it’s great that your on here daily as I love reading your posts. Will you take a stab on how much boston gets for snow from now till 1/1. Just a little poll to do somthing here. Go pats!!!!!! I hate night games as I can only watch maybe the first half.

  10. what’s this?

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ 4m4 minutes ago
    Tuesday & Tuesday Night’s Storm Might Be Replaced By Another Developing Ocean Storm For Late Wednesday Into Thursday!

    I think it is Euro speak, some of which I alluded to above. 😀

  12. Just got back from a morning run. Brisk outside, but more fall or spring brisk than December. Actually saw a filtered sun, but it was playing hide-and-seek behind the cloud cover.

    John, my best guess is little to no snow at the coast between now and January 1st. We could get an inch or two of glop out of the next two systems, but it’s hard to even count glop as snow in my view. Temperature-wise this week has been a tad cooler than I expected. Once again, TK was right. I do, however, expect a warming trend as we approach the middle of the month that we’ll have us up in the low 50s on occasion. I’m skeptical about a big cool-down at the end of the month.

    Huge game tonight. In some ways, bigger than last week’s game. The Patriots cannot win Denver. For many years it’s been a house of horrors for the Patriots. Hence, tonight is a must-win to ensure home-field advantage. But also to retain a healthy division lead. The division is not won yet. I won’t be able to watch the game, as I’ll be at the Cat Stevens (aka Yusuf) concert with a friend. Tea for the Tillerman (1970) is my all time favorite album. Truly brilliant, in my opinion.

  13. OS, I figure this storm coming up this week will happen again this winter sometime. Except next time it’ll be colder..

  14. John there will be no snow the next 14 days, Bet on it, maybe even nothing until the new year from what I’ve seen and heard 🙂 it makes it easier on us snow kinda haters, the winters feel shorter when it doesn’t start early, mainly cause the sun angle is like September by March and of course everyone screaming SPRING!!!!! 🙂

    2. You’ve told us you like snow but you just labeled yourself as a “snow kinda hater”. Well, which is it? 🙂

      1. I am a snow lover,,, at times, I honestly don’t mind snow from now until late Jan early Feb, but then as the sun angle grows I become very itchy for spring, and I rapidly become a snow hater. I’m not a fan of bitterly cold, it makes me grumpy. Bring on the snow 🙂

  16. I said this earlier in the week the Patriots need to have home field advantage throughout the playoffs to get to Super Bowl. I don’t see them going into Denver winning the game. Denver’s loss to the Rams I think is going to prove costly for home field throughout the playoffs.

  17. I find it interesting that if this were a weeklong “snow” setup, there would still be some OTS models out there. It seems that rainstorms almost never go OTS.

    Just curious…What would a more eastward track of this week’s low(s) result? Would dynamic cooling be more possible for eastern sections?

  18. It’s funny you said that. Every single time it shows rain we get rain even days in advance when it shows. Why not the same with snow?

    1. That’s actually a myth. Storms are equal opportunity “missers” regardless of precipitation type that was most likely. 🙂

  21. 18Z NAM is warmer than toast!!

    850mb 0c Line pushed into CANADA!!!!

    Limited snows way up North. What a piece of CRAP!!!!

    1. Absolutely perfect. Thanks OS and thank you to those who gave and continue to give so much for all we have

  24. The more I think about it, the more I feel TK is probably spot on with his winter forecast. Obviously this month is looking quite warm for the foreseeable future. But the analogs for this year, incorporating factors like Siberian snow and the developing weak El Nino, strongly argue for a sharp pattern change as we head into January. The “Arctic hammer” should come down hard, and January likely ends up very cold, but the storm track likely gets pushed far enough south that the Mid-Atlantic gets pummeled and we stay cold and dry. Eventually the cold will retreat though, and bring us more into the storm track, and that will be our time to get some snow opportunities, likely towards February as TK has said. We’ll also have a shot at another storm as the pattern changes near the start of January, before we enter our likely cold and dry spell. March probably turns warm and wet as the cold completely retreats.

    Those are thoughts on a prevailing pattern of course. Doesn’t mean we can’t get warm or snowy weather at times in January, or bitter cold or dry weather in February, but overall a cold and dry January and average to above average but snowier February makes sense. Snow likely finishing near to below average unless we get some real crushers in here for February.

    1. Well, a fantastic start with December pretty much nailed, even though we are
      only a week in. 😀

      We’ll see what happens the rest of the way. I do fear what Tk, you and Retrac have said that January will bring us the cold but with a supressed storm track to the South WILL come to be. 😀

  25. Thank you Old Salty for your thoughts and reminding us on this very infamous day. Thank you to all who have given their lives and those who continue to protect and to serve us.

    1. My Dad was in WWII, not at Pearl Harbor, but he did fight in Europe. He had friends that were in Hawaii. Amazing service by so many great people in a very dangerous time.

      We should all be grateful for what they did for us, as well as what those serving before them have done and what those serving now continue to do. 🙂

  27. Didn’t JB say a few days ago that this thing would end up as a colder solution or did I miss something?

    I need to check out this guy’s FB page. 🙂

    1. or what im afraid of is that the chargers pull an upset and the pats fall to 4 or 5 place in the afc

  29. Tk-I saw that….He has increasingly become a guy who only looks for the most extreme solution and as soon as it does not play out to the max he moves on to next “blockbuster”

    While I am ranting-There was a Boston TV Met who was the most aggressive in the Thanksgiving snowfall predictions, as to bringing significant accumulations into Boston Metro when it was generally 2″ or less event from 128 east, 3-6″ in the northern and western 495 suburbs as opposed to his more aggressive wide spread 8-14″. So what does this guy do? He lists a bunch of 10-14″ totals in towns above 1000 feet in Berkshire and Franklin County. I laughed harder than I should of….

    I saw the tweet reposted here about the ECMWF upgrade and how once it is done forecasters will need nothing else. Who needs to apply meteorology to weather forecasting anymore, huh? FYI: I have used the GFS/GEFS more in the last 16 months than the ECMWF but I stink at what I do….

    Thoughts for this week’s event is mostly wet and that extends to areas far north and west of Boston metro. As mentioned before I think the ECMWF has been the NAM jr when it comes to slowing down systems over the NE US and with backside / wrap around precip. The system should turn out much more progressive than modeled by the ECMWF.

    TK- Our winter thoughts are in line other than I think any significant pattern change does not take place until later in December, if I had to offer a more specific time period lets say between Christmas and New Years Day, so maybe a week later than you are thinking.
    Retrac-Yes my thinking is January turns out cold and dry on average. (At least in the areas where most people live…) Ha!

    1. I know. Since when does meteorology work that way? It’s always about the next “major” or “blockbuster” storm. And almost every storm threat is getting that label now. No wonder why everybody thinks we’re getting more and worse storms now than we ever have. I have news: We’re not. There are been ups and downs throughout recorded weather history. The ONLY reasons, and there are 2, that more people are being impacted by storms these days are: 1) There are more people. 2) We live in more vulnerable areas, i.e. exposed coastlines, in much greater numbers now than ever before. How can anybody ignore that and just blindly say that more people are being impacted because the storms are worse? Uneducated statement, IMO.

      If one knows the normal weak points of a model (any model, not just GFS) then they can use it to their advantage. The GFS has gotten plenty right. It’s knowing where it is normally weaker that will help you be selective. Again, applied meteorology. What a concept! 😀

      I have been known to go for a pattern change 1 to 2 weeks early, so you may be right. 🙂

        1. I have never been a fan of that term.

          I also despise how just the word “storm” has become automatically associated with something very damaging.

    2. LOL JMA – you know I love that. Nice to have you back by the way – enjoy reading you (and TK of course)

  30. We are now into our earliest sunsets of the year through around midweek then the slooooow turn in the other direction. I believe our sunsets will be around or even a bit after 4:30 pm by or on New Year’s Eve. Even on Christmas Eve and Day I always notice a difference albeit a slight one.

    I seem to remember reading somewhere years ago that our earliest sunsets never quite reach EXACTLY 4:11 pm and are actually more like 4:11:30…but who’s counting, right? 😉

  31. P.S. … JMA, been scrutinizing the long range stuff and applying some meteorology and I’m starting to think that pattern switch may indeed be delayed, or at least happen very slowly, in stages, starting after the Solstice.

    Ever since Nuri rearranged the N Hemisphere, it was like a major commute delay as a freight train went by. Everything is running late. 😉

    1. Interesting…Then does this mean that down the road come March the spring warmth you have been advertising be delayed somewhat as well?

    2. Maybe the warmth will be delayed cause it’s cold out tonight . Still guessing we get measurable snow right before Xmas or right after. That warm winter we had the first snow was mlk night but that storm kind of bogged down. I do believe it snows before that.

      2. No, that would not be the reason. It’s cold tonight because we have a cold high pressure area building just north of the region. It’s the overall pattern that will determine the shift and when it occurs.

        We’ll see snowflakes at times between now and the end of the calendar year. It remains to be seen how many.

        1. I just hope that we see enough snowflakes so that I can use my shovel for the first time since last winter. 😉

    1. They’re down by 1 at the half on the road against a tough team. Not too bad. 🙂

      But yes, Tom threw a couple of very bad passes late in the half. He knows it. 😛

      1. Disagree. They should be up by 14! It is a suckfest and if
        they don’t watch out they’re going to LOSE this game!!!

        1. Yup, at the VERY LEAST by 2. Inexcusable turnover when you are that close to a field goal with a great kicker.

    2. :). Dont get me wrong, Brady has been at a high level again. But, the Indy game comes to mind and now that pick ….. In January, can we be sure he’s not going to throw a pick at a critical moment ? He’s providing the slightest bit of uncertainty.

      1. Deplorable pick. A pop warner kid doesn’t throw that pick.

        At the very least he should have thrown it away or even taken
        the sack. That was bad! bad bad bad

  33. Pats are gonna be in the doghouse if they lose this one. No excuse for them trailing at the half, and then to come out with that start to the 2nd half is pitiful. Home field advantage will be a pipe dream if they lose this one. You know Denver’s gonna win out. We’re just lucky our AFC east foes lost today.

  35. Meteorologist DT pointed out that today’s ensemble means for the GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show a general ridge West / trough East pattern returning by about December 20. The ECMWF is the least-amplified of the 3, but does show a flip to a colder pattern, just a little weaker than its US and Canadian model cousins. 😉

  39. A football game is like a season. It takes a while for the pattern to work itself out.

    I was not worried about the Pats in this game. I have faith in them. And they did not let us down.

    Bottom line: WIN.

    NEXT PLEASE!

    1. I was thinking the very same as my head hit the pillow last night. I like watching a good game against a good team and we saw one. What would be the fun of watching if we always played perfect football? It’d be like having perfect weather without any variables – boring 🙂

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