On The Back Side

107 Comments

7:25AM

Finally on the back side of the decaying low pressure area, for 2 more days before it wanders away. Considerable cloudiness will be the rule through Saturday along with some spotty rain and snow showers. By Sunday, we finally get into more sunshine as low pressure pulls away to the east, but we’re still not likely to see complete clearing. That will wait until Monday when a ridge of high pressure will build over southeastern New England with fair and milder weather. But that won’t last either, as the next low pressure trough will approach from the Great Lakes later Tuesday and pass through on Wednesday with a chance of some rain and snow. This exits by Thursday when we will see a delivery of gusty, colder air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy, a few intervals of sun, but also scattered areas of very light snow/drizzle. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers with brief minor accumulation. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Lots of clouds, a few more intervals of sun, with lingering isolated rain/snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light mix at night. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/snow. Low 30. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

107 thoughts on “On The Back Side”

  1. hoping the wednesday storm does not effect my school. I do not want to be taking finals on friday for make ups.

  2. Thanks TK. I wish you could take the clouds out of the forecast for Saturday night. Peak of the Geminid meteor shower. It’ll probably start clearing by then, but I’m not holding out much hope that it clears enough to make sky watching worthwhile that night. There should still be a good number on Sunday night though, and that looks more promising for clear skies.

  4. Hope you don’t mind. I posted a bunch earlier and now it’s on the previous blog, so here goes:

    Good Morning

    KISS OF DEATH for the 17th System/chance for snow now that the Euro has
    a Freakin LAKES CUTTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

    Now the 22nd “looks” to go OTS, But still a “chance” I suppose

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

    Figures. We go from a Lakes Cutter to Out to Sea. Can’t WIN!
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:10 AM
    CMC ALSO has a cutter for the 17th, however it sprouts a coastal, too little too late for our area:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_mslpa_us_22.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_mslpa_us_23.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_mslpa_us_24.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:13 AM
    HOWEVER, CMC looks nice for the 21/22:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_mslpa_us_41.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_T850_us_41.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_z500a_us_41.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_uv250_us_41.png

    COLD air very Marginal. Look at that 850mb map.

    Surface temps in the low to mid 30s at that map time.

    We shall see.
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:16 AM
    GFS has a lakes cutter for the 17th, the sort of cuts
    across NE and ends up in the Gulf of Maine. A bit
    of a redevelopment. Hard to tell.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_23.png

    Almost a carbon copy for the 21st.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_36.png

    LAKES CUTTER for the 24th!!!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_41.png

    Next post more about GFS version of Christmas storm
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:18 AM
    GFS Christmas storm:

    Starts as a Lakes Cutter on the 24th

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_41.png

    We get new development way down South that comes up the coast.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_42.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_43.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_44.png
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:21 AM
    Becomes a 960MB Mega BOMB just North
    of US in Canada:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_45.png

    Of course this is ALL RAIN for our area, but given how far out it is, anything could happen.

    PLUS it’s the GFS. Can we trust that piece of crap that far out.

    ALL I can say is that it has consistently shown something in one form or other
    for many runs in succession. Something
    looks to happen around that time frame.

    Rain and/or even SNOW.

    We shall see.
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:25 AM
    Looking way ahead to Dec 28, it finally looks like the COLD is setting up to stay for awhile:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_T850_namer_49.png

    We shall see.
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:30 AM
    The FIM also has a LAKES CUTTER for the 17th

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014121200/130/3hap_sfc_f120.png

    For the 21st/22nd it has a system down the coast:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014121112/236/3hap_sfc_f240.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014121112/236/temp_850_f240.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014121112/236/vort_500_f240.png

    BUT, that looks to pass harmlessly OTS

    STILL something to watch
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:33 AM
    So, summing up our chances for a White Christmas….

    Looking slimmer than previously.

    I’d say here are the odds:

    17th time frame: 10%
    21st time frame: 40%
    25th time frame: 50%

    Just an educated guess after looking over the models this morning.
    Subject to change and Certainly others would have a Differing opinion on this.

    But this is what we do.

    Other thoughts? Opinions. I’m curious. I’d like to see IF I am out to lunch on this.
    😀
    Reply
    avatarOld Salty says:
    December 12, 2014 at 6:34 AM
    From Dave Epstein

    Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 56m56 minutes ago
    While this can and likely will change, GFS and Euro both have little to no snow up to a few days before Christmas.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4php94IUAAgEJq.png
    Reply

  5. Hope you don’t mind. I posted a bunch earlier and now it’s on the previous blog, so here goes:

    Good Morning

    KISS OF DEATH for the 17th System/chance for snow now that the Euro has
    a Freakin LAKES CUTTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

    Now the 22nd “looks” to go OTS, But still a “chance” I suppose

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

    Figures. We go from a Lakes Cutter to Out to Sea. Can’t WIN!

  6. To give you my opinion OS from the previous blog ….

    I suppose it could snow from one of the opportunities prior to Christmas ….

    Depends what people are hoping for ….

    If someone wants 5 inches of powdery snow, followed by a week where the temp doesn’t get above 30F and the snow stays on the ground, the chances of THAT are 0 !!!!!!!!!

    If we’re holding out for the chance that a system sliding underneath us could track just right, throwing its moisture into just barely marginal enough 850 temps that we might squeak out a few inches of wet snow, we’ll I’d put that exact scenario at 20%, at most.

    When Canada gets cold, central and eastern Canada, then I’ll get more optimistic.

    If we look at the 0z’s 850 mb temps out at 240 hrs, all I see is 0 to +5C !!!!!! temps nearby to our west, even into southern Canada. That, my friends, is probably not going to get it done.

    1. You’re as pessimistic as our Friend Joshua.:D

      Right now, overall, I’d say we’re close to 50-50. I want to see some more
      runs. I really think the 17th is Dead. Even if it snowed 6 inches, as you correctly point out, it would be GONE by Christmas.

      We really need the 21/22 system to pan out and NOT have it wiped out
      by the 24/25 system.

      Much is up in the air with the 2 systems way out there. Becoming clearer for
      the 17th. Just about time to Stick a Fork in it, although there is a slight possibility it could trend colder.

        1. Yes SIREE. Not the ones farther out.
          For the 17th STICK A FORK IN IT.

          AND I truly hope I am DEAD WRONG. 😀 😀

              1. Lol I’m no met or TK but I’d make an educated guess at somewhere around Christmas, there are possibilities around then but nothing definate or meaningful at this time. sorry I couldn’t help 🙂

  7. Good morning!! Brrrr chilly morning, winter vacation begins today!!! I got basically 6 weeks. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!! 🙂

    1. The 17th is History. GBAGL!!!
      (good-bye and good luck from Dick Albert)

      The 21/22 system is a real Watcher. it’s too early to say with certainty
      what happens with that one.

      Then there is the other for 24/25/26 time frame.

    2. I disagree with his statements. He is judging a storm that hasn’t formed yet. And also… storm track has already been active for a while.

    1. He is really good. Does anybody have a twitter account and willing to invite him here as I bet he would post. Oldsalty he is very accurate .

    2. I love the title, part of which is cold January ….

      Then, you read down into the article and look at even the most recent January outlook maps and the projected red on the map out numbers the projected blue in areal coverage about 9 to 1.

      Deep sigh …….

      1. The number of comments removed is quite disturbing…even worse than the WBZ blog back in the day before TK came up with this one.

  10. Too early to write off the midweek system. Where are the components located at this time? Think about it. 🙂

  11. From NWS out of Taunton for mid week
    A COMMON THEME AMONG THE LONGER
    RANGE MODELS IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REDEVELOP AS A COASTAL STORM
    ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BUT THE 00Z MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THIS
    TAKING PLACE AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES PAST CAPE COD. IF THE SYSTEM
    MOVES THROUGH SLOWER…AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE LONG RANGE
    GUIDANCE…THEN THIS TIMING OF PCPN WOULD ALSO TREND LATER AND
    MAY ALLOW THE LOW TO DEVELOP MORE BEFORE PASSING OUR AREA. THIS IS
    STILL RATHER FAR OFF IN TIME AND THE EVOLVING SOLUTION WILL NEED
    TO BE MONITORED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONTO LAND. WE WILL MAINTAIN
    CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
    LOW.

  13. A very nice writeup from Dave Epstein and his thoughts about Christmas and into January. I would say very similar to TK’s so far. Hopefully the 20-21 system comes far enough north. At least it won’t be a Great Lakes Cutter…absolutely no chance for snow with that type, even for NNE.

    1. Is as depicted rain along the coast a function of track too close or not enough cold air available? If it’s the latter, we’re screwed either way no matter the track. The thing that concerns me about the euro catching on to this is its had a cold bias on most of these systems this far out. If that’s the case again, i dont feel too good about snow around here.

      1. Ace, it’s more based on a track tight to the coast. 850MB
        temperatures are cold enough, but marginal. As it tracks closer
        850MB temps warm and then collapse colder as it passes by
        and then 500MB closes off Just NE of us. So not clear
        how much if any backside snow there would be. Potential is there.

        I understand about the cold bias. I honestly think IF track is good, we get SNOW. At least the Ocean temp has come down a bit. Generally just a bit above 46. I remember one Thanksgiving that we got 6 inches of SNOW. Ocean was 46 and it did NOT rain.

        LONG way off. TOO MUCH can change.

        At this point, it is a real watcher.

        1. OK, im a lot more comfortable leaving it up to track than a question of there being enough cold air supply. Track is highly variable but cold air supply; its either there or it isnt

          1. Not to say that it can’t change. As it is, it would
            be marginal, but with a storm like that, looks
            somewhat favorable. Just too much can change
            between now and then. 😀

  16. That is a pretty strong low pressure system 991 mb being depicted by the EURO. The will change 100 times between now and then but that looks to be the one to keep an eye on.

  18. Its showing up on the models so hopefully it stays there and we get some snowfall around here in just over a week. Way out
    there in the future and many many model runs to go.

    1. It is a system coming in from the Pacific and it will track from due west to east not tapping any Canadian air, so yes it will be ALL RAIN for most.

          1. I believe northern Canada is cold but southern sections are marginally cold, if not on the mild side. Hopefully Canada as a region will return to its “Arctic” self soon. 😉

  20. i know its the gfs but god darn i want it to be freakin right look at them storms 😀 just not on christmas, the 28th and new years eve. Im going into boston for first night,(first time ever) which is a change because usually go to wachusett or another mountain, but someone asked me to go with her 🙂 any ideas for us to do

      1. One suggestion is the fireworks on Boston Common at 7:00 pm and more on Boston Harbor at midnight. From what I have heard the harbor fireworks are the better of the two. Maybe TK can verify on that since he goes to a lot of fireworks displays.

        There is also the parade on Boylston St. that stars around 5:00 pm if I am not mistaken. Don’t forget the ice sculptures scattered throughout the city…Boston Common and Copley Sq. in particular. 🙂

        1. Btw, go see the ice sculptures on New Year’s Eve/early New Year’s Day because by mid-morning New Year’s Day city workers smash them to pieces regardless of the temperatures. I have no idea why they do that even at temps well below freezing. That is the only real issue I have with Boston’s First Night. Quite a shame IMHO. 🙁 🙁

            1. Matt – Even if you and your lady friend are of drinking age, DO NOT have any open containers out in public during First Night. The police are out there and will likely remove the containers from you and also subject to arrest. The city wants it to be as much of a “family” event as possible. It would be a shame to spend your first night ever in Boston in a jail cell overnight. I suggest if you and your friend do drink, go to a nice restaurant. There are plenty of them around. 🙂

  21. Yes I do drink but never in public always at home, would never risk that, also no more than 2 drinks for me and thats with crackers or something.
    Yes its a lady friend 😀
    we plan on seeing the fireworks and the sculptures. and thanks philip for the site 🙂

    3. It’s almost comical. Perfect storm location for Christmas snowstorm. Just no cold air.

      You watch, it’s gonna get cold in January and then OTS….

  23. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. (And this really is TRIVIA!)

    Back in 1960, Boston recorded its greatest snow depth on ground for December 13th. How much snow had accumulated on the ground?

    A. 9 inches
    B. 13 inches
    C. 15 inches
    D. 18 inches

    Answer later today.

    1. I think it is B because I REMEMBER that day well. I was living in Millis
      then and we got 14 inches. That was a really nice storm. Added 2 more
      big ones that year, Kennedy’s Inauguration day, 1/20 and Ground Hog Day
      2/2. At least out where I lived it was in the TEENS the whole storm. Yes with
      the WIND off of the ocean. KEY: really strong brutally COLD arctic air in place.

      I wonder now how much ocean enhancement there was to that one????

  25. Still looking pretty crappy for all of those 3 “snow threats”.

    Models in pretty good agreement about the 17th with a Lakes Cutter redeveloping
    in the Gulf of Maine. Exception: GFS Parallel which is looking more and more like
    a piece of shit. Why do they bother running it.

    Here’s the parallel run:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121306/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

    Even IF by some miracle, the parallel run comes to be, still to WARM for Snow.

  27. Our best chance for a White Christmas comes from the 21/22 system which right now
    “appears” to be Just a bit too far South and “outside”. Or as I like to say from Bob Uecker: “Just a bit Outside” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dalrphHivOs

    EVEN if the track changes and it comes up here, LIKELY to be TOO WARM!!!
    But that’s probably still our best chance. Pretty PATHETIC.

    GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

    EURO

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121300/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

  29. For some reason the FIM website is unavailable. Was NOT available last night either.
    I was curious to see what it had to say. Oh well.

  31. The only silver line for those two snow threats on the 21st 22nd 25th 26th there is plenty of time for that to change and hopefully we get a Christmas miracle with the storm threat on the 21st 22nd and have a white Christmas.

        1. I should say LIKEY too WARM. Still HOPING!
          Perhaps we can get a bomb out of it with tons of DYNAMIC COOLING. That is certainly possible with temps in the 40s. Get the heavy rain to bring down some colder air and drop temps to 30s and flip it over. That is IF we can keep the damn warm layer between 850 and 700MB to stay off shore.

  32. I found this from the DGEX run for 12/21. Nice looking storm plowing into
    MILD air. Coastal temps in the 40s.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f192.gif

    Info:

    The NCEP Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) forecast. The DGEX is initialized by interpolating the 78-h operational NAM forecast to a smaller 12-km domain. A 78-h to 192-h forecast of the WRF-NMM is made (same version that is running in the NAM), using the previous 6-h old GFS forecast for lateral boundary conditions.

    I think we are DOOMED.

    Anyone feel optimistic about snow chances between now and Christmas?
    I’m NOT. I have already declared the FORK for the 17th. Getting ready to Declare
    for the 21/22. I’ll wait a bit since it’s only 12/13. But GEEZ, looking PATHETIC!!!

    1. It could still happen, but overall, not optimistic at all. The big idea of a lack of cold air continues to be the major problem.

      The one encouraging piece of info I see is the GFS’ trend that central and eastern Canada turns colder later in December. Thats a start ……

      If that happens and it can get entrenched, then we can start watching storms with real hope. 🙂 🙂

      1. Right. Sure. We can start watching storms pass SOUTH of us.
        We can only hope that one finds its way up the coast.

        Here’s a prediction: After a series of storms pass South of us, perhaps burying parts of the mid-Atlantic with big snows, There will be a storm that makes it this far North ONLY IT WILL BE A LAKES CUTTER followed by more storms passing South of us.

        I sure HOPE NOT.

        1. I would think that one of the things that would have to happen for that to occur would be quite a negative NAO.

          The thing that gives me pause on that occuring is that the NAO has hardly been negative recently.

          1. Right, which means it’s due to tank. I believe
            it is forecast to be pretty negative next month, in fact so negative it is feared the storm track will be suppressed.

            1. I think I’d have to question the extremeness of that forecast ……

              Periods of negative NAO, certainly quite possible …..

              But ….

              Just seems to me that we’ve all said, lets look at November and early December, that 6 week period can give us some idea of a big picture pattern for winter.

              And I feel like thats held somewhat reasonably true the past many years.

              So, without seeing much of what would be needed in the atmosphere to cause a cold, suppressed storm pattern (I AM ignoring the 3 week Nuri atmospheric hiccup), its hard for me to buy in that the cold, suppressed storm track scenario is on its way.

              I’d propose for January that Canada will get somewhat colder and so will we ……… we’ll have four or five precip makers and two of them will be snow producers for us.

              1. I like your optimism. Perhaps you will be correct.

                I am mired in pessimism right now.

                I probably couldn’t see something IF It were staring me in the face.

                ALL I can say is that something looks to change late this month into the new year.

                We shall see.

  33. Crazy to stick the fork on anything past the 17th as it’s way to early . Bet me coffee we have plowable snow before the end of Xmas day. I don’t know I just can feel it. You know why at 3:30 on Xmas eve I start a 12 day vacation and the snow is going to screw it up .

    1. John, the problem is too much warmth and no cold air for snow.
      I haven’t stuck a fork in it for the 21/22 just yet, but it is looking miserable
      for snow. Still time, but I’m NOT optimistic.

      Have not stuck a fork in it for the Christmas storm either, but right now,
      that one is looking Worse than the 21/22 system. 😀

  35. Hey …. I thought in lazily looking out the window, there was a thick frost … turns out there’s a feather dusting of snow on the ground.

    2. Yes I was a bit surprised. It was a cold night last night. I’m in Hanover now Tom and I was thinking the same thing in regards to the cloud cover. Last full work week for you Tom you must be getting pumped.

  36. Tom, maybe more snow on the way today for you:

    the NCEP Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) forecast. The DGEX is initialized by interpolating the 78-h operational NAM forecast to a smaller 12-km domain. A 78-h to 192-h forecast of the WRF-NMM is made (same version that is running in the NAM), using the previous 6-h old GFS forecast for lateral boundary conditions.

        2. Well, I have seen some sort of precip:

          Monday
          Tuesday
          Wednesday
          Thursday
          Friday

          Saturday? I think there was a touch of snow here just
          after midnight. Perhaps some more in a hour or 2?

          By my count, that’s 6 days.

  42. I’m liking this trend:

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Dec 13 2014, 7:04 am EST
    Sat, 13 Dec 2014 07:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
    Wind: Northwest at 20.1 MPH (17.49 KT)
    Wind Chill: 23 F (-5 C)
    Visibility: 1.60 miles
    Water Temperature: 46.2 °F (7.9 °C)

  44. I’ve seen a lot of flakes the last few days…

    1) There have been periodic flakes falling from the sky. The disturbance that went through last night produced a nice sugar coating of snow here, and one just ahead of that while I was at the Burlington Mall (around 10PM) set up a great view as I looked toward the parking lot lights at the flakes shimmering as they fell. Neat view.

    2) There has been a prolific amount of flakes on the road, and I mean people flakes! People need to learn how to drive. The driver of a van of a well known cable and internet and phone provider went through a red light a couple days ago (right on red without even putting on his brakes) and cut me off to the point I had to hit the brakes hard, then proceeded to drive right through the red light ahead of us. That is only one story of many.

    3) This morning, I took a frozen bagel out of the freezer to defrost it and toast it for a cheap breakfast, and in the typical small amount of ice that forms on them when you freeze them, I saw some hexagonal plates! Snowflakes on the bagel! 😀

    Oh, and by the way, the blog has been updated. 🙂

Comments are closed.