Weekend Update

198 Comments

9:06AM

WEEKEND DISCUSSION…
With the old low still offshore and fairly close-by, we’ll remain under the influence of its circulation through the weekend. A disturbance, or “spoke of energy” moving around it will bring cloudiness and some snow showers to coastal NH, northeastern MA, the MA South Shore, and outer Cape Cod during this morning. A few flakes may migrate southwestward into the Boston area and immediate suburbs but no accumulation here while the aforementioned areas may see a coating to 1/2 inch of snow. Areas to the west and southwest are enjoying some sunshine and will continue to do so this morning. All areas will be in and out of clouds this afternoon but again clouds will be most dominant in eastern areas. By tonight, there is hope for a batch of drier air to clear out most of the clouds, leaving the sky favorable for the second peak night of the Geminid Meteor Shower, in which up to 120 meteors per hour may be visible. Sunday should be a day featuring a mix of sun and clouds again but this time with a little more sun in the overall mix. For those going to the Patriots game in Foxboro, the temperature should be around 40 at 1PM kick off time and in the upper to middle 30s by the end of the game, with a northerly breeze up to 15 MPH.

NEXT WEEK (MONDAY-FRIDAY)…
Low pressure finally moves far enough offshore to keep its clouds away but not far enough offshore to keep its north wind away, which will limit the amount of warming that takes place as the air will be “refrigerated”, having come across newly snow-covered areas to the north. But still, it will be a very nice day. Low pressure will track northeastward through the Midwest and into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday then redevelop over southern New England before moving northeastward into Maine on Wednesday. This track and redevelopment will favor rain, not snow, for southeastern New England, however as colder air starts to come back into the region behind the departing secondary low, some snow showers may result Wednesday night. A secondary cold front on Thursday may also deliver a few snow showers. By Friday, high pressure is in, with fair and chilly weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Morning – mostly cloudy with snow showers coastal NH through northeastern MA then into coastal southeastern MA to outer Cape Cod with accumulations of a coating to 1/2 inch, mostly cloudy with a few snow flurries Boston area, more sun further to the west from south central NH to interior MA to RI. Afternoon – mostly cloudy to partly sunny with isolated rain or snow showers in coastal areas. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain AM. Chance of snow showers night. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 20. High 35.

198 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

    1. The “storm itself” at midweek is very very likely a rain event. But behind it, as cold air returns, snow showers are possible, so that’s like a P.S. chance of coatings on a missed opportunity.

      I’m not even close to writing anything off for the 21st yet. In fact, I won’t get into it now, but it would not surprise me if we had snow on the 21st and rain on either than 25th or 26th. If that looks more likely to me in the next few days, I’ll get into why I think that could actually transpire.

      1. Oh and the system that was for around the 23rd, is still a potential, but that would probably be, in part, a northern stream system that is not really being modeled well right now.

  3. Thank TK !

    Flurries have started …..

    I agree TK with your description of drivers. My take is that its one area where people feel they have control and they take a lot of their frustrations with life out in their drivers. Frustration, anger, attitude …. its scary, you can see it in the speed and impatience they exhibit.

    1. I have found, by direct experience, that a high measure of courtesy on the road is actually more successful in eliminating life frustrations. 🙂

      It’s a practice I have had for years. And if I am angered enough to want to “flip someone off” (which is not often) the worst I ever do is blow them a kiss and tell them I love them.

  5. Click on this link after you read below, and then follow the directions.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=021&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_021_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141213+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    Starting at hour 21 (from today’s 00z GFS), locate the X, between the #’s 534 and 540, that indicates the disturbance at 500 mb in western Canada this evening (half way between the Pacific Coast and Hudson Bay) then go forward frame by frame and follow this disturbance all the way out to hour 384 and watch where it ends up, and how it got there. Fascinating. 🙂

  6. B for the trivia question.

    Matt – you’re welcome. I am glad I was able to help. You and your lady friend have a good time! 🙂

  7. Snw moving down, doesn’t really want to move inland much.
    I can see blue sky to the West and cloud deck to the East.
    Not gonna make it here.

    1. 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥
      😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥
      😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥
      😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥 😥

  16. I have radar on extreme close up range.
    Snow still wants to take a turn to the East and MISS my house. 😥

  20. Good afternoon!! Not to bad of a day, chilly sun is shining brightly 40.5 degrees. From what I see on models we have a chance at a white Christmas but it’s very low, yes ik it’s still 12 days away but at this time it’s low imo and that stinks. I do see some colder days ahead but it doesn’t look sustainable imo, even out to the new year. We shall see 🙂 Hope all has a good day. 🙂

    1. Better than a straight Lakes Cutter, but with no real cold air with which to work means no snow for us. Perhaps on the backside and/or after front passes???

      1. We saw that a lot where one low pressure dies out transfers its energy to a storm forming on the coast which leads to some sort of wintry precipitation most times.

  23. Repost of Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. (And this really is TRIVIA!)

    Back in 1960, Boston recorded its greatest snow depth on ground for December 13th. How much snow had accumulated on the ground?

    A. 9 inches
    B. 13 inches
    C. 15 inches
    D. 18 inches

    Answer later today.

  25. Without knowing if its close enough, its hard for me to get too excited about the EURO system 8 or 9 days from now.

    Just not cold enough.

    Worcester and higher elevations ………. alright, maybe that scenario could work for them.

    But lower elevations and the coastal plain …………. I think it would be a no go on snow.

  26. Interesting…12Z Euro for the 21st. With our previous experience I would LEAN
    heavily on this rather than believe the other crap out there. Does it mean it is correct?
    NOPE, but the EUro has been deadly at this range.

    It takes it up the mid Atlantic and slides it “just” South of here. Very marginal temerpaturewise. Very marginal. With this as depicted we Would get into the precipitation shield, hopefully as snow, but not certainties there. Rain just SOuth of Boston and quite possibly Boston as well. Here are some maps

    Surface 7AM Dec 21

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121312/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

    850MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121312/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

    Surface 7AM Dec 22

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121312/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

    850MB

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121312/ecmwf_T850_us_10.png

    1. Here are the 500MB charts

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121312/ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121312/ecmwf_z500a_us_10.png

      That’s should be pretty juicy. Wish I had a precip chart.

      Anyone out there?

      Attending a Christmas party in Walpole tonight. Ugly sweater party.
      The Mrs. took a nice green sweater and made it into a Christmas tree.
      I ordered one and it didn’t Arrive. Not sure what I am going to do???

  27. Even on that Euro solution it’s just too darn warm for eastern SNE. It kind of confounds me. It’s plenty cold for 8-10″ in Washington DC, hundreds of miles south of us, but despite a good track and pretty strong storm there’s nothing for us.

    I bet the track shifts further north too, maybe to the point where cold air becomes a moot point and we get rain regardless. Track shifts north compared to early model projections have become the established trend this year.

    1. Your last paragraph would be my concern. As depicted, depending on heavy
      the precip is, could still Snow in Boston, but NOT much farther South. OF course
      could RAIN as well. I wish we had a Euro precip map. Wunder map goes only
      to 180 hours. Not quite in range.

  28. BRIGHT SUNSHINE here!!! Awesome!!! 40.3
    Perfect for this time of year. Not too cold, not too mild either.

  30. I think TK and I are seeing the ~12/21 system differently most likely because how I see the climatic set up at that time is a bit counter to his prognostication. I don’t think it gets cold here quite yet and if it does that system is getting shunted south. My opinion and certainly subject to education and evolution – If the system is this far north it is going to be too warm for a widespread snow event in SNE.

    OS – FYI 12z ECMWF is about .4-.8 QPF Springfield to Worcester to Boston. Least west, most east. All snow west, rain/mix to snow east. Up to 1.0 Providence – Taunton. 00z ECMWF Ens had a similar scenario but slightly further south and a bit weaker.

    1. We’ve already had a couple set-ups this season where it was a fine line between precipitation being too light to bring any accumulating snow, and the storm being too close, enough for heaviest precip, but too warm for snow.

      I know your view of it is entirely possible. Call me an optimist looking for any hope of a bit of snow on the ground for those who want some Christmas snow. 🙂

      When it comes down to it and the threat is close enough for detail, I will call it as I see it. No wish-casting from me, ever. 🙂

      1. Thanks both. Certainly too close to call right now.
        Right on the hairy edge. I could envision a scenario where it
        is raining in Manchester NH (precip too light) Snowing in Boston
        and Raining again say in Brockton. Wouldn’t that be a hoot.
        Ah probably won’t happen. but fun to think.

    2. JMA is it possible that December could go the month without a snow storm in your opinion. And when do you see it getting cold enough to support one if it all comes togeather. With the above fall snow in Syberia and a very weak El Niño A in regards to Syberia do you see another cold winter and B in regards to a very weak El Niño do you see above for snow in this area. Boston, north and south. Thank you. I don’t think this winter will be a dud and once it arrives what on 12/21 or 12/22 I don’t think it will disappoint . How many nor Easters have we had this fall I think at least 3 if I’m correct and many other storms. I think the parade of storms continues and eventually translates to snow storms. Of course this is my non educated opinion and would like to hear your expert opinion if you would be kind enough to offer one. Thank you.

  31. Hmmm The plot thickens for the 17th.

    NAM wants to sprout a coastal to our SOUTH. 500 mb looks juicy

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121318&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121318&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    Of course it is a bit warm.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014121318&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=084

    It would have to crank in a hurry.

  32. Yeah so I was picking my son up from his friend’s house and driving around to take a few sky photos. Had a few drops and flakes with the heavier snow showers visible to the east, when suddenly at 4PM, there it was: a SNOWBOW! It was not brilliant but it was full.

  33. Some of it for me is persistence of pattern and persistence in my going prognostication. I have been more bullish on a slightly later onset of the colder regime than some others and also on the idea of a colder system on or about the 26th, but that all ties into my initial thoughts on a delayed regime change. However, that scenario for 21st and 26th could easily be reversed.

    Could we get no snow in December sure? I think there will be some snow though, but what I think and what nature does are two different things.

    I personally think correlation between early Siberian snow and snowy New England winters is becoming a bit overplayed. Just not enough long term data to go all in on it in my opinion.

    Right now I believe Boston comes in slightly below average for snowfall for the season with most snow to fall in February. January could end up being significantly colder when compared to “normal” but also drier than average.

    Remember though it only takes one anomalously strong storm to blow away the averages just as it takes only slight shifts in low tracks to turn potential big snow makers in to rainmakers or near misses.

  34. I am going to be spending sometime looking at this most recent system. Not only the set up in the days leading up to its arrival in SNE but also the 4-7 days after the system arrived in SNE. Really fascinating to me and I think much to be learned from it.

  35. re: the 17th

    18Z GFS now taking a bit more vigorish system and drives towards the middle
    of the Great Lakes. We shall see IF it sports a coastal? IF so, too little, too late for sure.
    Let’s see. 😀

  37. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Back in 1960, Boston recorded its greatest snow depth on ground for December 13th. How much snow had accumulated on the ground?

    A. 9 inches
    B. 13 inches
    C. 15 inches
    D. 18 inches

    The answer is B.

  38. re: the 21st.

    If ALL comes together “just” right we could pull of a snowstorm, but it would have
    to be nearly perfect. Just enough cold for snow to allow system up here, but enough
    cold not to have it be a coastal hugger or inside runner. We can wish. Tis the season.

        1. One of my all time favorite bands. Just finished listening to 17 minutes of iron butterly YouTube and now your YouTube. Mac is wondering what is prompting my trip to the past 🙂

        3. I’ll have to check this out when I get home but in the fleetwood Mac vain, I think Christie Mcvie, totally under-celebrated in that band IMO. One of the great voices

  42. 18Z version of the 21st. Oh so close. Teadering on the hairy edge.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=189

    Christmas storm

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=276

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=288

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121318&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=288

    Tell me it’s not so. How can a model SNIFF out a NORLUN TROUGH 288 hours in advance???? If this comes to pass, I’ll bow down to the GFS. I’ll light candles. I’ll change my religion to GFSOLOGY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  43. TK, you were right about sky cover tonight, plenty of clear sky out there to catch the Geminids! Me and some fellow weather/astronomy geek friends are gonna go out looking in a couple hours. Should be fun! There’s always so much light pollution down where I live but up here in central NH it’s not hard to find dark areas.

  45. I saw one. It was a bit scary outside by myself so I sat next to window with all lights off. Bonus was I scared my SIL when he came out to set alarm 🙂

  46. Good morning!! Traffic is already getting thick for the game, people tailgating and cooking, just awesome!!! Go Patriots 🙂

  47. Good luck to your Patriots as they should win today and clinch the AFC East.
    Hoping the Cowboys get a win in Philly tonight Cowboys. Cowboys win out they will win the NFC East.

  48. The Pats, internally anyways, don’t celebrate division championships, they have a much more important championship in their sights this year

    1. Don’t kid yourself, they will be celebrating hats and Tshirt game,, it’s the 1st goal 90% of teams won’t reach 🙂

  49. Good morning. Saw some interesting stuff on twitter regarding the systems after this mid-week. The “S” word was mentioned. Hmmm.

    Late night last night. Nice party. Wife won the ugly sweater contest. 😀

    Going to look over models.

  50. Regarding Next Saturday, the 21st.

    Euro has a nice set up.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121400/ecmwf_mslpa_us_9.png

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014121400&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121400/ecmwf_T850_us_9.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121400/ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png

    Don’t know about precip. Still not in range of Wundermap

  51. Regarding the Christmas storm:

    GFS has it now arriving after Christmas as a LAKES CUTTER with
    an attempt at a coastal

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslpa_us_41.png

    But the CUTTER takes over compeltely

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslpa_us_42.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_mslpa_us_43.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121406/gfs_T850_us_43.png

    More Facuckta RAIN!()@(#(!@&#*&!@*(#*(!@^$^!&*(@$*(!&@#(*&!*(#(!*@^#$!(@*#&(!*&@#*!*(@#&*(!^@#^&*(!@#&!*&@#*(&!*(&@#*(&!(*@#&*(!@*#&*(!&@#*(&!*(@&#*(!&@#*&!*(@&#*!&(@#*&!(*&@#*(&!(*@#&(!*@#&(!*&@(#!*(&@#!*(@#&!(@*#&*(!@&(#*&!*@#&!*@#&*(!@&#*(!@*#&*!&@#*(!&@#!(*@#&

    1. Now before I jump off of the Tobin Bridge, I have to remind myself that
      the above run was from the 06Z GFS which at this distance is about as accurate as a Carnival Fortune Teller. 😆 😆

      1. Nice, eh?

        We shall see if the GFS changes any and of course how the Euro and CMC will handle it as we get closer.

        Not dead yet, but early indications sure look crappy.

        1. There’s so much mild flow around it’s just brutal. I’m not complaining on the heating oil side of things but man….

          I’m about 50% covered in my yard still from that pre t-giving storm by the way.

          1. That is amazing. I don’t know what snow looks
            like. 😀

            I think we get some next weekend, but I’m not
            liking the looks for Christmas. Hopefully, that will
            change.

            The 0Z Run at least had inland snow and a chance if the track changed some:

            http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121400&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=276

            What a DRASTIC shift in 6 hours.

            I’m hoping TK says THROW OUT the 06Z GFS run because it was GARBAGE!!!

        1. I know. I gathered that.

          TK, what do you make of it that the CMC doesn’t have
          it. And the GFS shooting it OTS.

          In this particular set up, I’d certainly favor the Euro.

          Thoughts? Thanks

          And while we’re here. IS the GFS out of it’s mind
          with a Christmas CUTTER?

          1. CMC has been having some issues placing, and even sometimes finding, surface features. If you look at its upper pattern, it has the disturbance, but it doesn’t seem to know how to resolve the surface feature associated with it, so basically it just “skipped that question” and moved on.

            ECMWF is again proving itself to be best at that range. There really isn’t even an argument right now.

            And I’m not sure if you saw the message I posted either yesterday or the day before saying that it would not surprise me in the least if we had some snow from the system next Sunday and ended up too warm for snow for the just-after-Christmas system. Not that I’m trying to give weight to the 06z GFS, but just feel like the pattern may briefly resemble a slowly rotating dumb-bell system (try to visualize) where the flow is bending backwards and one low sneaks out under us and the next one cuts inside.

            1. Thanks TK. Hope not.
              I can live with a storm that hugs the coast just a tad and gives coastal regions rain, but still drops snow inland. I can’t live
              with a freakin cutter that gives us all rain.

      2. That map is amazing. Look at how lame that line is way up to northern new england. In a pattern like this, I can’t help but see how influenced we are by the mild ocean at the margins. New England looks awfully small next to that big water.

  53. The GFS operational run is SO inconsistent it’s laughable.

    For example, compare the surface map for 12z on Christmas Day from last night’s 00z run to the surface map for 18z on Christmas Day from this morning’s 06z run.

    NOT.
    EVEN.
    CLOSE.

    I don’t know how this product can even be used sometimes beyond a few days’ time. Only on very rare occasions now do I feel it has any real idea of the surface features and only a marginal sense of the overall pattern regarding the jet stream, etc.

    1. I was thinking the same thing TK. It’s had that Christmas storm everywhere from off the Virginia Capes to through the Great Lakes now. I’m not naive to think we can nail a forecast two weeks out but for crying out loud what’s the point of this thing like you said, beyond three days. Save the money.

    2. THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      So the Christmas snow threat is NOT dead just yet.

      Off to run some errands BEFORE today’s game.

      Will check in later.

      Enjoy the game all, should you chose to watch it.

      1. Exactly. We have seen enough change in model trends to know you just cannot write anything off this far out. Sounds like a broken record but so very true.

        It is pretty much a done deal for the Tuesday night and early Wednesday precipitation. Just too mild. We do still stand the chance of some snow showers Wednesday night with the back side arrival of cold air, and possibly even a few more on Thursday with what may be a secondary cold front. It’s a stretch to say whether or not anybody would get a ground-whitening with those snow showers, should they occur, but you know it’s always possible.

  54. The euro, has marginal 850mb temps for the 21/22 storm but the 540mb is to high so right now that looks like rain/sleet
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121400/ecmwf_T850_us.html
    then 540 chart
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us.html
    this storm also looks like it will be sunday and monday, seems to want to make it a day later than previously shown. waiting to see the 12z gfs come out but this storm looks to either be out to sea or to warm for snow.

  56. Only focusing on the EURO ….

    Can you imagine, in what will be the last 1/3rd of December !!!!!, having what looks like a 1030+ mb high to your north in eastern Canada AND a low tracking to your south …… and you still have to acknowledge that there’s better odds of rain, then snow and not just along the immediate coastline ….

    A consequence of all the cold being located in eastern Siberia, meanwhile …. the US, Canada and a good chunk of Europe are in the “toaster”.

    1. It really is amazing isnt it? Do u think the effects of the early season deep Siberian snowpack has been overstated to this point?

      2. As soon as some people jumped on that Siberian snow I warned that it was likely being taken too heavily into account. Too much weight on one parameter is the first step on the pathway to forecast failure.

  57. Hey OS… Remember yesterday when I pointed out that feature on the GFS in western Canada and we tracked it milling around and not actually arriving in New England until December 29?

    Well today’s 12z GFS has the SAME feature arriving here 13 days earlier than yesterday’s run. HOW’S THAT FOR CONSISTENCY? BAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! To borrow a phrase I’ve seen you use: What a JOKE!

  58. Tweet from Meteorolgoist Ryan Hanrahan
    Looking into the Long Range pretty impressive signal for cold/snow/storminess between Christmas and New Years

    1. And for the 21st, the GFS is F’D Up.

      Now goes from OTS to a freakin cutter with a coastal, too little too late!*@&!*(@&#*&!@*#&

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121412&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=168

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121412&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=168

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014121412&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=177

  60. And the GFS continues…onto to the 27th with YET ANOTHER FUCATA LAKES
    CUTTER!_@()#*()!@*#(*!@(#*!()@#*
    WIll they NEVER END?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????)_!@*$*()&!@*(^#$&*!^@#&*(^!&*@%^#&*!^@#&*^!@&*#^*!@&^#&*!^&*@#^&*!^@&*#^!&*^@#&!^@#&^!*&@#^&*!^@*#&^!&*@#^&!^@#&^!@*&#!&@^#&!^@#&*^!&*@^#&!^@&*#^&*!@^#

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121412/gfs_mslpa_us_43.png

    1. Save yourself the stress.

      The 12z GFS over-develops a shortwave in the Great Lakes to New England on Thursday and the rest of the run is trash.

      1. Yeash, but I’m having fun with it.

        We’re getting back to the point where the only meaningful mid-range model is the Euro and then a tremendous drop off after that.

        WHY can’t these other model compete? It’s shameful and a colossal waste of money.

        1. You won!

          The GFS has taken that particular short wave through New England in a spread of 13 days over 24 hours’ worth of runs. I know other models do things like this from time to time, but that is BAD.

          I’m very unhappy with that model right now.

  65. Excellent game by the Pats. A little slow to start but they have already shown us that it DOESN’T MATTER, especially at home. They are a second half team, in general. If this team is not the best in the NFL, they are second.

    11-3 and people are still questioning them?

    4 straight games: No touchdowns allowed in the second half.
    2 straight games: No POINTS allowed in the second half.

    What are the fans looking for? I don’t get it. This team is INSANELY GOOD.

    1. I always enjoy watching Tom Brady throw those laser like passes which his talented receivers catch more often than not.

      1. I’d be willing to bet they are far more annoyed than you. Sort of a really good reason to believe in them and support them even more when they are not perfect.

  66. I wonder what BBB said to them at the half? Whatever it was, THE PATRIOTS
    came out for the 2nd half. GREAT 2nd half and ultimately nice win.

    1. I always amazes me how the team can seem totally different after half time. Sometimes they flop, but more often than not, they come out with the solution they need to defeat their opponent. I can’t help but think it must be some pretty amazing coaching.

      1. The coaching is great, but the players still have to execute. And they do just about every time. Yes sometimes they just get beaten, like in Green Bay. They still did some very good things in that game.

        The Pats are the “team to beat”. Just about every team plays then really hard in the first half and make it close. This is no surprise. But the Pats figure it out, wear them down, make plays, and ultimately win. It’s worked about 75% of the time through 14 games. That’s pretty damn good. 🙂

        1. I saw some excellent plays in first half. Offense struggled a bit but it is virtually impossible for any team to be perfect at all times. As you said, or what I understood you to say, they have the ability to figure where the weakness is and have the stamina to address if. Excellent game.

  67. The weather anology to still scutinizing the Patriots is this …..

    The GFS (most teams) ……. Your just kind of hoping that if everything else says low pressure, it doesnt have a sprawling 1035 mb high overhead. Being within the general ballpark makes the weather community happy.

    The EURO (Patriots) ….. You know its going to have it pretty close, so, you can look at the nitty gritty, like how did it handle timing, temps aloft, exact low track, etc.

    Believe me, in the late 80s and early 90s, the Pats were the GFS, its 06z version to be specific. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  69. Great 2nd half by the Pats today. Got to go to the game. What a great day for it. Defense/Special teams came up big with those two plays in the first half! Go Pats! On to NY.

  70. the new england patriots are the best over all team. Everyting is middle to top in stats. Defense, offense, special teams you name it, slow start by the offense but everything else was there.only one touchdown allowed and that was pretty darn close of not being one.

    Euro is showing a moderate snowfall for my area but also shows a strong wind, not sure how warm the ocean is but the east wind will generally cut totals down alot and the euro is showing some powerful winds. would love to see this storm go a bit further out to sea than what the euro is showing but knowing my luck it probably do the opposite.

  71. The Patriots have established themselves now as a great second half of a game team. I don’t know why I keep getting so pissed during the first half.

    1. Its ok to get pissed. Once the playoffs begin they will need to play well the entire game or they wont make it very far…

      1. Vicki if they win out they will win the NFC East. That is a tall order tonight in Philly next week at home against Indy
        and at Washington to finish the season and Washington already beat us this season.
        Seattle and Detroit winning today did not help.

  74. I talked with a former colleague and he believes that NCEP S&T has made a slight alteration to the GFS OP runs and they are “hyper-sampling.” They have done this before and it essentially doubles the amount of data collection sites for current climate data that input into the GFS but because the programming infrastructure and associated algorithms don’t account for this it creates wild swings in output beyond 48-60 hours. It does tend to make the model stronger in the near term / short term, but I have never been a fan of it when they go into hyper-mode. I believe part of the reason they chose to do it is because of on going issues with the NAM, but on other hand until about 4 weeks ago I think the GFS was performing on par with the ECMWF and now it is to wildly variable to trust. Good news is they usually only do this for days or weeks and not long term.

    1. No way. 1) I won’t be on air and 2) I left out the explanation I intended: Model forecast only. Nobody should go on air with a map like that right now. 🙂

      2. You wanna make a bet that between tonight and Tuesday some fine TV met in SNE goes on the air with a model generated snow map?

              1. Nope, as I recall ….

                He was chief met at ch 4, but with Eric Fisher’s hire, he lost that title and moved to mornings.

                And, then eventually moved on ….

                2. Yeah, I could see him putting out a map ahead of most (that I agree with), but the part I’d add in …. is that, it comes with a great informational improvement to the BZ blogs and so, I dont think you can have one without the other. Doesnt mean he’ll always be correct, he kind of struggled with a recent storm snow wise, nonetheless, I’d accept that trade anytime.

  76. Working on a new blog while I watch one of the many versions of A Christmas Carol with my mom. 🙂

  77. You know, maybe the GFS needs to have the same experience Scrooge had ……

    The ghosts of forecasts past, present and those disastrous ones yet to come …….

  79. Hi North… They are. We need a nice time consuming drive here with a score. I don’t want to punt back the ball back to them after there offense went quickly down the field and scored.

  80. Looked at BB’s 7 day and …..

    Next Sunday : the descriptive outlook : stormy …..

    The other part, which is telling …..

    The temp : 40F.

    1. The 40 is really just a general long range idea. We know it won’t be Arctic, for sure, but there are many options still open this far out. 🙂

    1. Oh sure, the details to be determined …..

      I do think though that the two big picture ideas are …….

      Storminess and marginal cold.

      Maybe number one holds, maybe it doesn’t …… Either way, I’m struggling to see something thats going to change #2 until after Christmas Day, maybe all the way to New Year’s Day.

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