The Week Ahead

129 Comments

11:14PM

High pressure will allow a tranquil start to the week Monday. Low pressure will track northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday then redevelop just off the coast and move rapidly northeastward away from southeastern New England. This track means that the system will produce rain later Tuesday through early Wednesday. As cold air arrives behind the departing low, a few snow showers may wander into the region Wednesday night, but a secondary front and associated disturbance will plow through the region during Thursday with the potential for additional snow showers. This will set up a quiet and chilly end of the week and start of the weekend as high pressure builds in. But during the weekend we’ll likely be impacted by low pressure coming out of the US Southeast. It’s too early to determine the track and ultimate impact on our area but this will be watched as the week goes along.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-28 except around 30 coast and urban areas. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N to E.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind light E to SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Late day or nighttime rain to snow showers. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow possible. Low 30. High 40.

129 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Good morning.

    I’m in UGH mode!

    No Maps. Just saying that model runs have done us in. NOTHING looks
    favorable anymore.

    21st is either OTS or too damn warm. Christmas is looking more and more like
    a Lakes Cutter. Still time, but UGH meter is rising.

    I don’t see any cold until the New Year. More Ugh. Nice for the heating bill.

      1. Sure, but when it looks good and then starts to look bad, often
        it does not turn good again. I think our chances of a white
        Christmas are waning. Hope not. We shall see.

      2. John to your point, from the NWS at Taunton:

        SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT… AS NOTED ABOVE…THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHIFTING AROUND WITH EACH RUN. NOT SURPRISING AS THIS
        IS 6.5 TO 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE AND THE RELEVANT PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER ARE OUT OVER THE MIDDLE OF
        THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN…FAR FAR AWAY AND UNLIKELY TO BE SAMPLED WELL FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS.

  3. One more thing on the Pats and I know some don’t want to hear this.
    IF they make it to the SB and I believe they certainly do and play like they did
    in the 1st half yesterday, they will LOSE. Against an elite team they won’t be able
    to mount the kind of 2nd 1/2 attack they did yesterday. That is why it is So important
    that they start the game playing well. They can’t afford to take the 1st 1/2 off before
    they get cranking. That is all.

    I love the Pats. I think they are awesome. They just have to shake off this first half
    malaise that has afflicted them from time to time.

    1. I agree and you must play 4 quarters at this time of year. Pats can’t take these next two games lightly as they need that home field.. Also the bills and more so the jets would love to be a spoiler . They can easily I believe run the table with these two games but as oldsalty said 4 quarters to play not 2 but all and all the pats have damn good shot at reaching the Super Bowl this year and Brady sees that. Every game he is up and down that sideline getting the team pumped.

    2. I do think everyone knows what you are saying and agrees that have to play well to win. Every team has to do the same. I think what I’m not making clear is that I will enjoy every game win or lose – regular season, playoff or super bowl. They are my team. They are not perfect but I believe they always play their best and whatever their best is on a particular day is fine by me. It is a bit like the weather. I love weather no matter what it is.

  4. I am very happy Cowboys fan this morning. They win the next two games they win the NFC East and are in playoffs.
    Plenty of time for the two storm threats next week. They are far from set in stone.

    1. I know I’ll be rooting for the Cowboys next weekend, as they play the Colts.

      Also, rooting for Bengals to beat Denver.

  5. For the first time in a long time !!!!!! , the EURO is finally showing a first glimpse of cold in Canada on its long range.

    It truly has been amazing watching the EURO’s predicted 850mb temps for Canada over the last couple of weeks. Anything south of 60N Latitude has been consistently around 0C for a while.

    On this morning’s 0z run, by day 10, there’s an area of -10 to -15C at 850mb gathering in west-central Canada, even a small bullseye of -20C. So, I do think there’s hope for optimism, at least for colder times locally, beginning perhaps Dec. 27 or 28th.

    Snow on the 21st, well … if a storm comes close enough, I’d have to offer a fairly confident no !!

    1. Based on the 0Z Euro 850 MB temperatures, I agree.
      Pretty sick map for this time of year. Just no COLD air.

      It’s still a ways off, so things can change, but IF you made me call one
      way or the other right now, I’d HAVE to say RAIN.

      Run looked MUCH colder previously, so I don’t know what’s going on.

      We’ll just watch each run for changes and I’m sure there will be. Not sure
      we’ll like them, but they’ll be there.

  6. Thank you for the week ahead, TK. I love Saturday’s forecast. We are headed outside to see lights and it sounds as if it will be a great day to do so.

    1. Yup, its (the cold) coming. Glad its after at least 12/23. Like getting to this school break without any days lost to snow. 🙂

  8. Re: Next Weekend’s storm/no storm:

    WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 42m42 minutes ago
    High impact TX rain storm this week will be the potential seed for a coastal storm to impact the mid-Atl & Northeast.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B45iScRCMAI2-KI.png

    Related?

    WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 12m12 minutes ago
    Sub-tropical jet stream to flex later this week across the southern tier of the nation. Typical for a Nino base state

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B45pVqQCcAA2ELw.png

    1. Matt,

      You keep posting the loop. Suggest you just post the hour you want us
      to view. It makes it much easier to see what you want us to see.

      Btw, I noticed that and commented above. Very DIRTY (warm) 850MB map for that potential storm. IF those are the conditions and IF it were to come up
      here, it would very likely RAIN. (Of course we’re hopin and a wishin for a change. At least those of us who desire a White Christmas.)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121500/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

  10. The obs claim the summit of Mt. Washington is 39F, the Mt. Washington website says 29F.

    Either way, warm (for mid December) airmass overhead.

  11. I would question any temp profiles being spit out/up from the euro. Yes, it has been performing better as of late predicting a storm is coming and decent positioning, but lets remember for the last storm it had several inches of snow IN BOSTON up till the last couple runs before the storm. It has had a hard time with temp profiles at all levels and may show snow when there’s no shot at it. Even though the latest run shows no show for Boston, it could fluctuate and i caution jumping on any future runs of the euro that show snow for our area

    1. Well, that’s even worse ….. because, if anything, the 850 mb temps would need to come down !!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Sure, except for one thing. The reason there was no snow in Boston
      for the last one, was not the Euro’s temperature profiles, it was the change
      in track to more inland that did it. That WILL do it every time.

      But, I do agree there has been a bit of problem there.

      I have NOT given it the FORK for the 21st. Just not ready to do that yet.

      I’d like to see a few more runs and Wait until the energy can be better sampled in a couple of days. Then I “might” stick a fork in it OR not? We shall see.

      While we are at, the Christmas storm isn’t looking so good now. TK alluded to that a couple of days ago. We’ll keep a watch.

  12. Harvey is really definitive:

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 2m2 minutes ago
    Watching the Sat. Nt. thru Sun. Nt. time period…snow and/or rain possible, but not certain yet #wcvb

  13. Just had a thought …

    This 12/21 system has to miss, completely !!

    Pats at Jets …..

    An equalizer…….. when you believe your team is better than the other team …… is a wet, cold, soggy turf and yucky weather. Especially when the one strength of the other team offensively is a pretty strong running game. Big disadvantage to the passing game.

    1. I wouldn’t even give it a thought. Won’t slow down the Pat’s passing attack
      at all. What I would worry about is the potential wind problems, although
      Mr. Tom handles that well also.

      Bring on the storm. Bring it on.

    2. All it would mean would be that the jets would score 0 instead of 6 points. The patriots score at least that each week by accident.

  20. 12z Euro is way, way too far south. I still think it trends more north as I said the other day, although I could be very wrong of course. But the northern track would still present a temperature issue.

    1. Since some of the necessary data isn’t being sampled properly yet, I think
      we can cut it some slack. It’s been pretty consistent. Sure the track varies
      with each run, but it’s always BEEN THERE. No phantom storms like you know who. At this distance, to be expected.

      This one has the potential to be a Monster. IF everything lines up just right
      we could get pummeled! OR the fish could get hammered.

      We just don’t know yet. Certainly a system to be watched for sure.

      1. I know, its been good. I just know a certain facebook “met” who prides himself on the consistency of the euro with recent terms like “EURO holds course!” 😉

  22. Good afternoon!! Another decent December day!! Errands errands errands!! Christmas is next week!!! The bad news a white Christmas is very very low. The 1 positive of no snow is people can easily go abouts there business without worrying about snow during the holidays. A big division win!! Go Patriots!!! Good day!!

    1. I’d love a white Christmas. If we do not have one, it just won’t change my Christmas. And yes great win. Have fun with errands. I think my shopping is finally done

  24. just going to say, euro been pretty darn consistant of where the low down in the gulf starts out. it changes once it gets to Mississippi

  25. Got a peek at the Wundermap. Brings extreme NW fringe of system precip to just
    the coastal areas. So, yes, as depicted a MISS!!

  26. While the low on 12/21 is shifting all over the place ….

    the EURO is showing building cold in Canada, right around Christmas.

    Central Canada turning very cold, northern Canada …. arctic cold.

    Progress ……. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  27. Hell has frozen over! From DT on the 12Z euro…

    …This is a big shift for the European model. The European model is very good BUT is not perfect and it does occasionally have bad runs.

    1. 😆 😆 We shall see.

      My guess is that this will end up a BM system or close to it.
      A Monster. We have a dinner date with friends at 5PM on the 21st,
      so you KNOW it WILL HAPPEN and it won’t be RAIN!

  28. The only thing we know is there will be low pressure system on the east coast. As I always say it needs to be watched. I think there will be some sort of an impact for at least part of SNE. I don’t think its a miss.

    1. Look who’s chiming in on this. 😀 😀 😀

      View 2 new Tweets
      NortheastWeatherHQ ‏@NEweatherHQ 6m6 minutes ago
      I will be keeping you updated throughout the week on our Major #Snowstorm Potential for Early Next Week.

      1. Track my friend, track.

        Move ENE towards benchmark, could be a monster.

        We need to watch carefully.

        Sure, IF it moves NE towards the Cape or more West, it would be a RAINORAMA all over Eastern MA and even farther Inland depending on exact track.

        However, IF one factors in the 0z run from last night, I would
        venture a more ENE track, but I could be full of SHIT!

        Too EARLY to know just yet.

        1. Fair enough. But with a position like that, even if it tracked over the BM, wouldn’t that position bring in a strong fetch off the relatively warm water and warm the lower levels before it got to the BM?

          1. All depends. If the wind is more East, yes. More North no. In between it’s up for grabs. Impossible to know at this point. Plenty of time to fine tune that. IF we had a frigid Arctic High
            to the North, it would be snow even with East Wind (Barring of course some facuckta warm layer aloft)

            Right now I say the storm comes. What form it takes is up for grabs. I guarantee IF it comes it will be Snow or Rain or both. I think sleet is not in the mix with this one at the moment, but one never knows.

            We need to keep watching for sure. 😀

  31. Upton NOT so bullish on Major event:

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
    317 PM EST MON DEC 15 2014…

    LOW PREDICTABILITY ON DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP IN MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS…WITH A LOW POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT FOR DIRECT WIND/HEAVY PRECIP IMPACTS FROM A STRONG COASTAL LOW.

  32. The 12z Euro ensembles were definitely remarkably different than the operational run. The mean is pretty much a benchmark track, perhaps a bit SE of the benchmark. In terms of snow though, the temperature profile looks very suspect. A few hit us with good snow, but a lot of them are too warm. The ensemble mean snow for Boston looks like about 2″. About 5″ or so on the mean for Worcester. I don’t trust these situations with marginal cold. The setup would have to be perfect, with a benchmark track and a strong, sub 980mb low capable of generating its own cold air.

    1. Where do you see the Euro ensemble mean snow totals? Curious.

      We shall see. We all pretty much agreed that all would have to line up
      perfectly for an all snow event. Of course, more likely would be ALL rain
      OR mostly rain with “some” front and/or back end snow.

      We shall see.

      I have a sneaky feeling, you’ll get your big storm. Sub-980 is pushing it.
      985-995 pretty much assured. Lower? could be. Who knows at this point.

      1. It’s another thing on Weatherbell. I’m not supposed to redistribute ECMWF products because of licensing issues, but given the anonymity we enjoy here, I’ll link a picture of one of the plots available. It’s a little tricky to read, but basically each one of the colored horizontal lines represents one of 50 ECMWF ensemble members. The scale is included at the right. The green line at the bottom is the ensemble mean, and if the operational was showing snow you’d see a blue bar (you can make out a very tiny one at the bottom of this chart). This plot is for Norwood. Mean of about 3-4″, but as you can see there’s some members with nothing and some with much more.

        http://imgur.com/1xh9Udz

        1. Awesome Chart. Many thanks.

          I see “about” an even distribution of members with
          nothing or very little as there are with significant amounts with the balance in the middle.

          Very very nice.

          A few members bring a foot or more.

          I’d be curious to see what the 0Z run brings with this
          chart.

          Many thanks again for sharing. That is a great product.

          Without posting chart, can you tell us what it says for Boston?
          Many thanks

          1. It’s similar, with some hits and misses, but given Boston’s proximity to water the mean for the airport is only about 2.5″.

            1. That would put the mean at my house close to what it is for Norwood. Thank you very much for checking on that. 😀

    1. Going from OTS to a coastal Hugger? Not good.

      Of course, this model isn’t too reliable. I want to see what the 0Z Euro
      has to say. I bet it hugs the coast MORE than the 12Z run did.

      We shall see.

  36. BZ has a high of 29F next Monday ……

    Boston is going to have a sub freezing high temperature before Canada has a chance to turn remotely cold ?

    I guess there’s going to have to be a lot of snowcover on the ground by then, as well as a decently cold airmass in eastern Canada, being yanked down over all that snow cover to keep the temp that low. Thats with a sun symbol to boot on that day. 29F …………..

    1. Compare that with the parallel. Makes me wonder if they haven’t polluted the old GFS to make the new one look good. Certainly gives one pause. 😀

  41. Interesting discussion from NWS taunton

    IF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD
    PROVE MORE DOMINANT…THEN THE SURFACE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE
    DEPRESSED. IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG…THEN
    THE SURFACE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN OR
    SOME MIXTURE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A THIRD VARIATION WOULD A BALANCE IN THE STREAMS THAT KEEPS MARGINALLY COLD AIR FLOWING FROM THE NORTH AND A CLOSE ENOUGH TRACK TO PRODUCE SNOW.

    1. From Gray, ME NWS office

      ATTM THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS THE
      OPERATIONAL RUNS TRENDING NWD OVER THE COMING DAYS

      1. Storms have tended to pull more NNW so far this season anyway it seems.

        You watch, this thing will end up the Hudson River in the end.

  42. i keep on forgetting how many of you live south of boston… sorry guys but i want you guys to get rain and snow mix.. make it so the heavy stuff is up here north and west of boston just inside of 495 😛

          1. the first two which I was the most worried about went ok, I think i maintain my A’s in both of the classes, now 2 more on wednesday which should not be as hard

  43. Tweet from chief meteorologist Brad Field WVIT CT
    Euro ensembles closer to us with Sunday potential than are the GFS enembles…if you like snow, that’s probably good, watching

  45. Good morning!! Chances for a white Christmas remain very very low, 1st week of January the area will receive it’s 1st meaningful snow. Until then it’s relatively quiet imo 🙂 good day

  46. My UGH meter is rising rapidly!!!

    Current reading

    http://i.imgur.com/mNHXs78.png

    The 21st has mostly Gone POOF and/or OTS.

    The Euro still have a weak cousin. The CMC has the best system, but too far off shore.

    The Christmas storm is depicted as a CUTTER by the Euro and OTS by GFS

    Tropical Tidbits is NOT operational AGAIN!!!!

  48. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 15m15 minutes ago
    At this point I actually think this Sunday’s storm may be colder than the Christmas eve storm but we will see

  49. Euro does bring precip here for the 21st, but guess what. Of all things it’s too freakin
    WARM!! WARM!! WARM!!! WARM!!! WARM!!! resulting in RAIN RAIN RAIN.
    Looking at wundermap, I’d say about .6 inch qpf or so.

    Wundermap missing 156 hour. Here is 150

    http://i.imgur.com/CG6xEbd.png

    1. Your blood pressure, OS ! 🙂

      Hang in there ……. 12/28 thru 1/6/15 ….. My guess for when the first significant Boston area snow happens. 🙂

        1. Central Canada, starting to move into the central US.

          I think cold will become better entrenched in the eastern US a few days after Christmas.

          1. Doesn’t mean snow. Storms will be suppressed then. You watch. OR they’ll be LAKES CUTTERS and it will RAIN anyway!

        2. Regarding 12/21 storm could even be 12/22 Monday/ or Sunday night what’s the projected low temp Sunday night and high for Monday. Still hope .

      2. Actually, my blood pressure is Excellent!! No problems there.

        I’m just venting. I’m fine. I KNOW there isn’t a thing we can do about any of this.

        Looking ahead, the Christmas storm is about to be a FORK storm in addition to the 21st and NOTHING in the way of Snow anytime soon. We’re looking well into the new year.

        I may make a STICK A FORK IN IT declaration for the 21st storm this PM. Will wait a bit on the Christmas one, but very much looking like stick a fork in it. 😀
        😆 👿 😈 😆

  52. I have a new term (Or perhaps it’s not. Did we use it before????)

    GODFATHER STORM

    Instead of a Fish storm, as in Dumping the precip into the OCEAN. 😀

  54. The only system that is pretty certain is the one coming through in the next 24 hours. The rest of it is up in the air, literally and figuratively. 😛

    Blog is updated! But it’s just a forecast. Discussion will be posted later. 🙂

Comments are closed.