Holiday Horizon

198 Comments

6:37PM

It may be at the edge of the forecast range, but Christmas is nearing! A lot of shopping and travel plans will be attempted during the next 7 days, so let’s take a look at how the weather may play out. Starting way out, about the Christmas Eve / Christmas Day storm threat: To be honest with you, I realize the reason that many media are talking about the system in as much detail as they are this far in advance, with the importance of peoples’ plans and all, but we should reel that in a bit, because as much as computer guidance has changed in the last 3 days on the outlook for next week, and the fact that the pieces or ingredients of this potential event are scattered around various portions of the Pacific Ocean at this time, things are likely to shift further. What I put in that part of the forecast will be low confidence, and will, as always, be fine-tuned with time. Leading up to that we also have a few weather changes to encounter. First, we have a cooler northwesterly flow of air that became established during the day Thursday behind a departing low pressure area. This will lead to a dry and cool day Friday as high pressure builds north of the region. This high will orient itself in such a way that the wind will turn northeast over the weekend, bringing episodes of ocean cloudiness into portions of southeastern New England, especially coastal areas, with a little more emphasis on cloudiness and possible drizzle and snow showers Sunday versus Saturday. High pressure should nose southward a little more for fair weather on Monday. We’ll have to watch for a wave of low pressure passing near or east of the region Tuesday as a boundary will be nearby. This is uncertain, detail-wise, but odds would favor Tuesday being a cloudier day and perhaps somewhat damp if low pressure is close enough. So there will be plenty to monitor during the coming days…

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows ranging from the lower 20s rural areas to around 30 along the coastline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH, diminishing somewhat overnight.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Periods of ocean cloudiness especially coastal areas from Boston to Cape Cod and across southeastern MA and parts of RI at times. Sunnier elsewhere. Highs around 40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty drizzle/flurries especially eastern areas. Low 32. High 40.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 42.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain especially east. Low 32. High 42.
WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 46.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain to snow showers. Temps cooling 40s to 30s.

198 thoughts on “Holiday Horizon”

  2. Thanks TK 🙂

    You know, it’s funny. I’ve had multiple people over the past few days ask me if I am “ready” for Christmas. Every time I say yes. And then after I answer the person who asked lets out an exasperated sigh and tells me about how much they have left to do.

    When I said yes to that question today someone said, “No one says that, wow!” And I’m thinking, what does it mean to be “ready?” Presents wrapped, food bought, plans made? Cards sent out, house cleaned, a few stray lights replaced?

    I am not done wrapping. Or done with buying presents. And I could be a lot more organized. I have a lot to do (Christmas related and otherwise.) But am I “ready” for Christmas? Well, it’s coming whether I am ready or not, so might as well be!

    “I love Christmas,” I told that same person today. “I do too,” she said, “But…”

    There shouldn’t be a “but.” Whether it’s snowing or not snowing, stressful or not stressful, traditional or untraditional, we cannot change the fact that December 25th is fast approaching. So let’s make the most of it, and enjoy! 😀

    1. We share an identical philosophy when it comes to this, weatherwise and otherwise. This particular season I was not quite as organized as I wanted to be, nor did I get the final shopping out of my way as early as I had planned, and I still have a couple last-minute things to take care of, along with the daily errands for mom. But all of that to me is just part of a great time of year and I love it. And weather? -10, 0, 20, 50, or 70 degrees. Clear, cloudy, rain, snow, ice, wind, whatever. I have weather I “perfer” over other weather, but when it comes down to it, no matter what the weather, what a wonderful holiday Christmas is to me, and I’m very much looking forward to it. 🙂

    2. As always, Emily, I found my smile getting wider the more I read. You have a special way with words. It is one of your gifts. And your words resonate with me. In truth, I am ready for Christmas on December 26 every year…..loving the one I had and looking towards the next!!

  3. No offense TK, but are you sure about that forecast for Christmas Eve and Day? I certainly have no problem with it if it verifies, but the TV mets say heavy rain & wind for Christmas Eve (50s) and Christmas Day has no precip at all.

    In fact, I had been planning all day to ask you if Christmas Eve will be similar to the 9th storm.

    1. Why I worded the forecast the way I did can be best explained this way:
      I use very simple wording for day 6 & 7.
      My best guess is that we have a system that will be timed differently than the majority of current guidance suggests. I chose a slightly slower timing and narrower band of rain based on how I think the entire thing will be oriented. That rain would becoming through overnight. Even that is more detailed than I wanted to think on it.

      To me, I don’t really care what the TV guys have to say about that system right now. Firstly, they have to say something because that’s their job, and that comes along with pressure to make it sound attractive so people have something to talk about. The holiday adds even more to that of course.

      This will probably not be identical to the storm on the 9th but has some potential to produce similar conditions.

  4. My friend, former coworker, and fellow meteorologist A.J. Burnett points out these facts about snowfall in Maine this season-to-date.

    Bangor: 31.0 inches, 8th snowiest to date.
    Caribou: 53.4 inches, 3rd snowiest to date.

    Different world up there.

    1. Really …… 53.4 inches ….. my goodness.

      Thats where the next woodshill weather gathering should be ….. Caribou, ME. 🙂

  6. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 59m59 minutes ago
    A shot of colder temps to end December, but I gotta say – not feeling bullish on anything too impressive.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    I noticed the forecasted cold temps for Monday (as recently as two days ago) have been revised significantly. I know that you were not calling for upper 20s to 30F for a high on Monday, but several mets were. I must say I was baffled by that forecast. Where would the cold air be coming from? West of us it’s not that cold. And even if it was, say, 28F in Green Bay on Saturday, with a prevailing westerly that will moderate a lot by the time it gets here. We’re locked in an unfortunate pattern, with perhaps a brief spurt of cold air late this month. But, it will be nothing to write home about, and will not usher in a major shift, in my humble opinion. My guess is we’ll have brief spurts of cold (2-3 day bursts) in January, similar to 2011-2012. So far, the likeness is telling. And that year Caribou fared fine, too, by the way, as did Quebec City. For snow, that it. It was not a cold winter for them or for many at all in the Lower 48, but far Northern Maine had plenty of snow.

    1. I also made an adjustment up from the 30s to the lower 40s. All forecasters fell victim to a widespread general model error, again the type we see when one major index (possibly MJO in this case) does not enter a phase that had been predicted previously. Whatever the reason, the general model consensus changed from a colder to milder outlook for that period of time over a few days, and it was significant enough to impact forecasts at that range. I don’t place great importance in the actual temperature I use for a fairly large area in the extended part of my forecast, so the adjustment from 36 to 42 is not really that great of one, in my opinion.

  8. I wonder what kind of wind event this event could turn into for our region … both pre and post storm passage ….

    Pre passage : deepening low approaching from our southwest, while high pressure seems to be holding in the Maritimes to our northeast. Looks like a tight pressure gradient.

    Post passage : storm will be at its most intense, plus there’ll be the added element of cold air advection stirring the pot.

    1. Let’s hope we don’t get too much wind, I would feel awful for kids on Xmas eve to lose power. But I guess it would up the parents to make the best out of it for the kids.

      1. Hadi that would suck period. All holidays should be storm free. I just hope the people who lost power on turkey day don’t loose if again . Tom could you explain more on the cold air convection and how that could play out. Last day Tom or Tuesday, pembroke goes till Tuesday half day.

        1. Tuesday is last day prior to vacation.

          If I have my meteorology correct, when you have cold air rushing in behind a strong storm, like what would be happening around Christmas Day, the atmosphere can be stirred up even a bit more (it can add a few miles per hour to the windspeed or increase the wind gusts).

  10. I’m going to be getting a big fat check back from the oil company after this season. This year’s budget was based off of last year’s high oil prices AND cold temps. I spent 6k on oil last year! figure maybe 25% less at least based on this warmth compared to last year and the cheaper oil – thank God.

    1. Gas company continued winter rates where hey ended last spring at their highs. They need to make an adjustment soon. The rate almost doubled in February and March of last year.

    2. I spent 6,400 and I estmated to spend around 3,500, models say no snow till after the new year, that’s January folks!!

      1. If we didn’t get those feather dustings we would be coming in on latest snow record, if I’m not mistaken it’s jan 7th

          1. We have lived here 35 years. We typically spent about $900 per year until maybe the last decade. Now it is around $3000 and we are really conservative with heat, have a new burner, etc. It is ridiculous

            1. Oil prices should be going down, at least crude oil prices. Whether the effects are seen in home heating oil prices remains to be seen but unless u are locked in to a higher rate, this winter should be easier on the wallet regardless of temps

          1. That still seems like a lot for fuel. We have about 1600 sq ft and pay about $2800 a year (depending on the current price) and that includes heat and hot water. You must keep the heat jacked up to 85!

    3. I hope you are right but somehow they will figure out how to keep it. We still turn heat on in back of house once during the day for maybe an hour and then it comes on automatically for 30 minutes twice during the night. Front where kids are is on more but only during sleeping periods (naps and night).

  11. Roker went over the top this morning on the “Christmas Eve Storm” I think his message was a good one but the delivery was quite dramatic which of course adds hype to the message. As was the case at Thanksgiving, it seems to me to be a good idea to get the word out that there may be travel problems. I believe many changed travel plans for the better in November. Next week, if the wind is as predicted, there will be a mess at the airports along the coasts.

    1. Al Roker……please.. Does he even had a degree meteorology for the record? He doesn’t even belong on this blog, forget weather TV IMO. What a freaking hack he is Vicki. (Sorry if you like him)

      1. No, I am not a fan. He blows everything into sensationalism. I’d say it is the network requiring him to do so but Dylan reports when he is out and she does not do the same.

  12. Good morning. I have the pre-Christmas no Snow blues. Blah Humbug!!
    This weather blows chunks for the Christmas season.

    Models are STILL ALL over the map for the Christmas/Christmas eve storm.
    “General” Consensus is the system passes through the Lakes give or take a lake.

    Pressures forecasted are no where near those levels of a few days ago, but still
    a potent storm. Wind forecasts four area are way down. From 60+ to 30s Max.
    Even as a Big rain/wind event it’s NOT looking so fearsome. There is time, but
    much about nothing so far. We shall see.

    OH and after this one passes, there is another CUTTER right on it’s heals.

    Once we get that one out of the way we shall see. I’m very fearful that this pattern
    will just keep repeating.

    Has Boston seen it’s Winter snowfall total already?

  13. Oh well nothing we can do..As Bill Belichick says “It is what it is” I don’t think it is going to effect the time we spend with friends and family.

  14. pattern changes in january, cold air really was not going to filter in until the new years after the 3 system . for at least for a little, I bet we see our first good winter storm within the first two weeks of january

    1. You and John are on an island of ur own. Hopefully we start to see that island population grow, but we’ll see

  15. I am changing my snowfall forecast to 5″ for boston this winter. It’s going to be sunny with highs in the 50’s most of the winter. Charlie will be working on lawns by the end of January.

  16. After the 2nd cutter comes through, the pattern will change, bank on it, I gtd it!! Cold and snow will come. I have heard this about crappy december weather so many times and then boom we get crushed. It will happen this year no doubt in my mind.

  17. Way too much negativity about the pattern, this WAS expected. I not upset or surprised. It’s actually been closer to average than I thought.

  20. I will be backing off slightly on the January cold. The cold is likely to be Midwest and Plains biased.

      1. Modified as well as a few brief direct shots. Not sure on precipitation yet. MJO and ENSO will decide that.

  21. Just think, if not for that anomalous pattern that was a direct result of the super typhoon becoming a monster system, we might not have had any measurable snow in Nov. and early Dec and the temps would have been running more above normal to date.

  22. Is it me or has it been an awfully gloomy month of December? It seems lately we get at most a few minutes of actual sunlight and then the clouds return and never leave.

    If we can’t get snow for Christmas Day then I hope at least much more sun than clouds. 🙂

    1. I was just thinking that this morning as i walked out the door. I cant remember the last bright sunny day or even having the sun come through the bedroom window in the morning. Its almost like in Dec we’ve had weather more typical for Nov and Nov was more typical for Dec.

  23. If what TK says about the January cold focusing more on the Midwest and Plains verifies, then I am wondering if that would in fact allow southern systems to better move up the east coast?

    1. That is one possibility and a wildcard that could destroy that portion of my winter forecast. 😉

  25. I got a good chuckle out of the GFS map Hadi posted for January 1st.

    Cute. I’ll believe that one when I see it, in fact, I’d wager it is GONE from
    this morning’s 12Z run. let’s see. It won’t be long now before the run gets
    that far out.

    Not a chuckle at Hadi, as he full well knows that is not likely. He was just trying
    to cheer up the snow lovers. 😀

    1. Remember a few days ago when I said it can still snow even with a surface low not really involved?

      1. Of course I remember. I’ve been watching this possibility
        for days. All I ever said was that nothing significant would happen. Ie I won’t have to consume reindeer droppings. 😆

  28. Lol will see when the snow and cold come. If a month from now we still haven’t gotten snow, then itll be trouble for snow lovers, I said 26-31 inches or 29.3, this is what will fall 🙂

  29. Like Ace said december reminded me of what novembers are suppose to be like. maybe mother nature is just a tad behind

  30. In reality December had been not that off normal. A bit cloudy and wet but a little low on snow in SNE. Temp mild bit not that much above the averages. Nothing weird going on at all yet this reminder seems increasingly necessary for a society with a bad memory and an insatiable appetite for whatever the media preaches. 😛

  32. I find this blog quite interesting to follow. We have snow lovers, closet snow lovers,good meteorologists and good guessers. All in all fun to read. I have been in the Snow Plowing business for close to 50 years. We still have a long way to go.1969 we didnt plow a flake until Feruary and still beat the averages.1978 first good storm was later January and still beat averages. The year of the April 1 storm was not a big winter up until April 1st.LONG WAY TO GO !!

  35. 12Z Euro still wants to crank out a Land Bomb or should I say Lakes bomb?
    at 965MB. Still pretty impressive. Hopefully far enough away to keep really strong winds out of our area.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2014121912&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=232

    Followed by another less potent Lake Cutter. Thank you sir, may I have another?

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2014121912&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=232

  37. From NWS a bit ago

    Re: Saturday

    INTERESTING SETUP. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK TURNING EAST SOUTHEAST WILL MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. 850 TEMPS AROUND -6C SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION…ESPECIALLY GIVEN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING SALT PARTICLES IN OFF THE OCEAN.

  38. Excerpt from Dr. Judah’s Cohen’s latest

    Therefore, mild weather across much of North America and Europe should transition to colder and perhaps much colder conditions into early January. This change in the AO will also increase the chances for significant storminess in the Eastern US and parts of Europe.

    We updated AER’s Arctic Oscillation Forecast and Analysis blog. Click here to view the latest update:
    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Regards,
    Judah

    Judah Cohen, Ph.D.
    Director, Seasonal Forecasting

    Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), a division of Verisk Climate

    131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421-3126

    Tk do you agree? Disagree? Thanks

    1. I agree with the trend to colder, though in stages and probably not severely cold. Not as stormy as they are probably envisioning.

      1. Fair enough. Pretty much what I expected you would say.
        None-the-less, things have already changed since your
        Winter Forecast was issued.

        We shall see how it all turns out.
        😀

        1. One thing that I was not wrong on was this gangbusters start and no let up Winter that others were talking about. And I still have no idea why they were talking about that.

          December was fairly close to what I was thinking to this point, with some rough spots.

          MJO is set to mess up the next few weeks.

          1. Spot on for December. Now I hope you’re off “just” enough for January to allow storminess
            up the East coast. 😀

  41. TK and all,

    What do you make of this Bernie Rayno tweat????

    Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno 2m2 minutes ago
    BTW…you still have to watch max coming across SE New Eng late Sat nt into sunday with some snow..that will be interesting to watch

    2. He tweated me back. Here is his answer.

      @JpDave13 . it is a combination of the E flow, but max coming from the W. There will be a band of snow across S New Eng Sat nt into Sun

      I took a look and this is what he means, the 500MB vorticity Max.
      I guess this could enhance the precipitation. TK? Thoughts?

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_054_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=500_vort_ht&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141219+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

      1. Bernie tweated back some more.

        @JpDave13 . negative tilt which means surface flow comes in from the east. Upward motion, Low level moisture means snow.

        @JpDave13 . interesting to watch too. could be very little but sometime you can small bands of heavier snow to set-up, someone gets 4-5″

        John, do you have an in with Bernie?

  43. By the way, don’t be surprised if the “Christmas Eve Storm” is a 2 hour period of rain along a cold front in the early morning hours of Christmas Day.

    Then people will be pissy about hype from media because they were all sooooo sure we were gonna get clocked on Christmas Eve Day. Idiots.

      1. Yeah. I just get very frustrated because they never seem to learn to hold back on the detail. Everyone has to be “you heard it here first!” .. I still say wait and be more accurate when it really counts!

          1. Oh trust me, I’m not talking about you guys here…

            These are blog comments. Anything goes as long as the guidelines are followed.

            I’m talking about media who has the task of informing the public in a serious way.

  44. The snow coming in on Sunday is no surprise and it is very possible up to 2 inches could maybe reach as far as Boston.

    1. John, What do you base this on? Curious.
      You “may” be correct, just wondering where you got this?

      Thanks

  45. There is some energy that may be around, even with marginal temps, if things work out, we could get over 1 inch of snow in parts of the region Sunday.

  48. Still not convinced even if we back off the cold that we set up a good snow pattern…

    Things have to happen. And not all of them may.

  50. What I meant was how much more information does oldsalty need regarding the snow . I was texting sitting in traffic lol

    1. I think the heaviest ban will set up over west Roxbury and JP to visit mr oldsalty to cheer him up and give him a snow dance and also say hello to mr Hadi.

  51. According to Harvey’s snowfall map, Boston has the “jackpot” total of 1-2″ with “lesser” amounts N&W. Maybe I get to use my shovel before the end of the year after all. We will see. 😉

    Btw, Pete said he didn’t feel the need to make a snowfall map. It will be interesting if the weekend Ch. 7 mets will end up making one.

      1. I shovel 1-2 inches. It doesn’t always melt off. Sometimes it partially melts then freezes. If you are in a cold pattern during low sun angle time, then the ice doesn’t go anywhere all that quickly. 😛 Not that you don’t already know this. 🙂

  53. Good evening. Out and about
    Nice that it cleared after dark. Figures.

    John you never did answer my question. Not even close.
    You made at me?

    1. As I have said more than once this week I felt when the cold air moved in it would hang out, meaning the weekend. I think some of the maps may have it to warm and I don’t see Boston hitting 4o tomorrow which means I’m guessing on a cold night tomorrow and this is when I think it sticks. I think it snows lightly all night and winds down maybe early Sunday and I’m guessing low temps for tomorrow night maybe high 20s. So wind direction, setup ocean enhanced snow fall and low temps could , could deliver 1-4 inches by Sunday morning. And I also could be wrong.

          1. Nope. The amount is but know it’s going to start tomorrow afternoon and go through a good part of Sunday. Sounds big right. No just enough to remember its winter Sunday.

            1. I hope your right but I can’t disagree more, I don’t see anything falling in my backyard, nor do I see anything accumulating, maybe a flurry but the big story is the mild week coming, let’s see what the nam says

  56. I gotta tell ya,, 45-50 degrees from Tuesday through next weekend will not feel very much like Christmas. And to top it off, it’s going to rain!!!! Blah!!!! I’m looking for the big one 10+ inches of snow, maybe in Jan, we shall see 🙂 goodnight

    1. That will depend on timing and location of the fronts associated with the low pressure system.

    1. We’ll have to wait for the December data to be finalized of course, but as long as this month is among the top ten warmest Decembers on record, which is highly likely, then 2014 will go down as the warmest year on record globally, at least according to NOAA. Next year may break this year’s record as El Nino develops further.

  60. Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On average, how much snow should be on the ground on this date?
    A. None
    B. 0.7”
    C. 1.3”
    D. 3.0”

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    How much snow fell on this date in 1975 (December 20-22)?
    ACCUWEATHER ACTUALLY GOT THIS ONE WRONG.

    A. 12.5”
    B. 14.5”
    C. 18.2”
    D. 21.3”

    Answers later today.

  61. Interesting little tidbit from the Taunton discussion-

    THERE IS ONE AREA TO WATCH IN PARTICULAR…FROM NORTHWEST PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND INTO NORFOLK COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AND PATTERN RECOGNITION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY LOCALIZED 3 TO 4 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS…GIVEN SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AND A LITTLE FOCUS ON THE COASTAL FRONT. WILL TRY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN OUR SNOWFALL AND PROBABILISTIC GRAPHICS.

    I don’t know about 3-4″, but we’ll see. The Canadian RGEM model, my favorite for short range forecasting, shows a 2 inch bullseye in far northern Bristol County, with a general inch or so for most of region.

  62. I got a nws warning re bad driving and snow this evening. Does anyone know the timing or if it gets as far inland as holliston? I’d sure appreciate it as we cannot go to see the lights if it is snowing since Mac is not steady enough walking yet so will need to come up with plan B. Thank you!!

    1. This might not be much help Vicki ……..

      In this case, it might truly be a …………. see whats happening later this afternoon and adjust as needed.

      These small scale events are tough to pinpoint.

      I might assume some flurries/light snow to be in the air and with today and this evening being cold, whatever falls will most likely stick.

      I’m sure you’ll make the right choice. Enjoy !!! 🙂

  63. Vivki,

    From the models, it looks to start in the Boston area around 1-2 PMish or so.
    Spreads inland slowly during the afternoon. Gets to Holliston around 7PM or so.
    According to the HRRR, bit spread inland takes place between 6 and 7PM.
    I am just reporting the results of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh model initialized
    at 6AM this morning.

    Here is the radar at 6PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014122011/full/1ref_sfc_f12.png

    and 7PM

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014122011/full/1ref_sfc_f13.png

    Doesn’t mean it’s gospel, jut reporting what it shows.

    Hope this helps.

    Btw, those echoes are pretty light.

        1. His name is Bernie Rayno.

          AND I think you are correct, although the vorticity Max
          does not look as impressive on models today as it did yesterday.

          12Z NAM for 1PM today

          http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_006_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=500_vort_ht&fhr=006&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141220+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

          HRRR for 4PM today

          http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014122011/full/vort_500_f10.png

          1. Ah, thanks OS !

            Yes, maybe a little weaker and tracking a bit further north ……

            Hopefully enough lift to squeeze out the moisture coming in off of the ocean. 🙂

          2. Nah, I stand corrected. On 2nd thought, this Will
            ENHANCE the ocean effect snow.

            Bernie seems to be pretty good.

            I wonder if he will be correct when he said someone sees 4 or 5 inches???

    1. I can SEE the clouds off to the SouthEast. Rest of SKy is still clear here.

      Keep the snow reports coming.

      We’ll be headed to South Weymouth around 3PM.

  66. From Taunton NWS office:

    INTERESTING MESOSCALE SETUP AS AN INVERTED TROUGH COMBINES WITH SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND. THIS COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN.
    SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BECOME SATURATED ALL THE WAY UP TO THE -9C LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DECENT SNOWGROWTH…

  67. Re: Today’s 2nd quiz

    I looked up the top snow storms for Boston. I have been around to WITNESS
    the TOP 13 all time biggest snow storms. Pretty amazing!!!

    1. People always say “it doesn’t snow like it used to in the old days” etc etc. They are completely wrong.

  68. Blog is updated!

    The long-advertised “somehow” snow event will take place this weekend. Not a big snowstorm. Not even caused by a surface low as originally thought many days ago, but there were always signals that something could happen. It will be minor, accumulation-wise, for just about all of the region, but a few “several inch” amounts cannot be ruled out.

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