The Week Ahead / Christmas Forecast

154 Comments

6:59PM

The atmosphere made a feeble attempt to deliver a set-up for a white Christmas, with some ocean effect snow mainly south of Boston and some scattered light snow around southeastern New England as a disturbance at upper levels passed through from southwest to northeast. But that’s about it for snow chances. And with milder to warmer air arriving in time for Christmas, the chances of a white Christmas drop to nil. Maybe next year! So exactly what is coming up during the week ahead? Read on…

Monday / Tuesday … Air flow shifts slowly from northerly to easterly as high pressure tries to hold on north of New England and low pressure tries to approach from the south but weakens and washes out. Cloudiness will dominate and there may be spotty light snow Monday and scattered light rain Tuesday as the atmosphere warms slightly.

Wednesday / Thursday (Christmas Eve / Christmas Day) … Here it comes! The storm of the century! Right? Wrong. Low pressure will crank up in the Midwest during this time, and will send a warm front northward through southern New England Wednesday, preceded by some light rain, drizzle, and fog. As long as the warm front pushes right through, a stronger southerly wind flow will then develop along with areas of rain showers. We cannot even rule out breaks in the clouds and some sun between the warm front and approaching cold front. That cold front will approach later at night into the early hours of Christmas Day with showers likely and even the chance of thunderstorms, somewhat unusual for late December. During Christmas Day itself, the front will push offshore but slowly enough that moisture still still be moving up along and behind it with additional rain showers. Behind this front, the push of cooler air is fairly weak, but a gusty west wind and a cool-down and dry-out is likely by later Christmas Day and Christmas Night.

Friday / Saturday … Southwesterly flow aloft, westerly flow at the surface, high pressure passing to the south. That is a dry and milder than average set up for late week.

Sunday … Early call would be for a cold front to sweep through from the west with a colder air mass arriving. We’ll also have to watch for a potential low pressure wave from the southern branch of the jet stream moving out south of the region but it is uncertain if that will form and affect the region.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty snow flurries with no accumulation, but a few bands of briefly light to moderate snow showers South Shore of MA with minor additional accumulation. Lows 25-33. Wind light NE.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Spotty snow flurries. Highs 33-40. Wind light N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Chance of light rain. Highs 38-45. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Morning – cloudy with drizzle and fog and a chance of rain. Afternoon – mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Evening – cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Night – rain showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Low 45. High 60.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers diminishing west to east. Low 50. High 55.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 48.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 54.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain to snow showers. Temperatures falling 40s to 30s.

154 thoughts on “The Week Ahead / Christmas Forecast”

    1. It snowed lightly the entire time. Perfect flakes, many of which I got to observe on my black gloves. 🙂 Photographed a few.

  4. Thanks TK…any guess right now as to how many inches of rain in our area? Trying to plan effort around my driveway. Last storm was the worst one yet!

    1. It’s a little early to know for sure, but I could see under 1/2 inch leading up to it and maybe another inch with the cold frontal band sometime that night and early morning.

  5. Thanks TK.
    It feels good to say Dallas Cowboys NFC East Champions. This is a special one since no Cowboys fan thought this was going to happen when season started.

  6. Thanks TK. Congrats on those Cowboys JJ, I’d love to see a Pats-Cowboys Super Bowl this year! I’m just glad the Pats found a way to pull it off today. Never easy against the Jets.

    Meanwhile, just some subtle variations on the old GFS and new GFS for 8-9 days from now 😉

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014122118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122118/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

      1. they changed it go to global and ensubles and you will see the different models when you are at them look below the map pick all the different levels

  8. Good morning, I think.

    I see a few colder days in our future and then I am not impressed.
    We shall see, but I don’t like the looks of things down the road.

    If we don’t sneak something in during the 12/29-1/5 time frame, I don’t like
    our chances there after.

    This may be a very very low snow total year.

    Wife is already worried about next Summer being way too hot.

    Tk is so RIGHT.

    All this hype about a “land bomb”. he he he Sure.

    I see more CUTTERS in our future.

    PATHETIC.

    1. Yeah, I was looking at the GFS this morning and I’m not too confined it’s going to get all that cold still.

  9. As for the Patriots. If they expect to advance in the playoffs, then that putrified performance best be their last. What a STINKORAMA!!!!

    I think the biggest problem was the lack of protection for Brady. Sacked and pressured way more than he should have been. That happens against Denver, Seattle or Green Bay, SEE YA! Not to mention the defense at times making Geno Smith look like a Hall of Fame QB.

    2. Look at Indy and Arizona (granted, their opponents were better than the Jets), what do those 2 teams have in common with Patriots yesterday ….

      They were battling injuries and playing with important playoff seedings on the line.

      Results : Pats win, Indy and Arizona got destroyed. I know we see the 3-11 record, but, I think it was still an impressive win, on the road, without 2 important offensive position players.

      2. As much as I think that Josh McDaniel’s play calling leaves a lot to be desired (in fact he had that deer in the headlights look when Brady came off the field after one ugly set of downs) I do overall agree with what you said Tom. Not every game is going to be pretty.

      3. Disagree totally and completely.

        Who were missing for Brady protection? And don’t say blount,
        because he does not protect all that well or that often.

        One could argue that missing Arington affected the defense and with that I could partially agree, but they still had Revis and Browner.

        Let’s face it, they had a STINKER. Let’s move on.

        1. I guess I’m in the minority. I don’t care.
          My thoughts and opinions are mine to do with as I wish.

          I do Believe that moving forward they’ll be just fine.

          Doesn’t mean I liked yesterday’s performance.

          1. I agree with Tom but I also agree with OS in that it was a stinker. My beef is with McDaniels….he knows he has some issues with injuries (Connolly) to the O Line and yet he doesn’t run the ball. Running the ball (at least in the first half), even if you don’t get much from up, makes the D line think twice before going after Brady.

  12. It has been amazing to watch how much time the models needed in order to get a handle on this storm in a couple days …

    4 or 5 days ago, this was going to be a sub 980 mb low by the time it was over the Great Lakes and now it appears, it really doesn’t get cranked up until its a fair distance up into southeast Canada.

    1. Indeed. Originally the GFS has 958, the EUro 962 and the CMC 959 MB for that system.

      The atmosphere is extremely dynamic and the models are a man made attempt to simulate the atmosphere. Not perfect by any stretch.

  14. Weather models = Patriots = Past performance does not guarantee future results.

    Every pattern, every system, every game … different.

    That’s just a fact. Not even arguable. Well that saves a whole lot of discussion! 😀

    1. Don’t agree totally. Yes each game is different, however, a piss-poor-performance means something. Could be they were just in Christmas mode.
      I don’t know, but whatever it is, best NOT to be there in the play offs. 😀

    1. There ya go and here we go again.

      The cold is coming, the cold is coming , the cold is coming….

      OH wait a minute, NO IT’S NOT!!!! he he he

  16. Any update on rain amounts? I see 7 upped theirs from 1-2″ to 3″ now. I thought it was going the other way.

    1. My fear is that originally a few weeks ago Mets were saying the chances for snow would increase starting around Dec 20th and going into Jan. Now its starting mid January. The question is, will we get to mid Jan and then they say, welllll, its not really until mid Feb when the snows get going. This was the broken record of that awful winter of 2011-2012.

      2. So funny, everyone always brings up 11-12 as the best winter a lot of new Englanders have experienced in generations, to each there own 🙂

  19. Good noontime hour!! The sun is beginning its way back,, yet slowly. I was reading an article that stated after Jan 7th- 10th a pattern change but said not sure just how cold and not sure about snow but said that was around the date 🙂

      1. Terrible colors for a snow map, but anyways, looks like a tight gradient for snow accumulations with temp issues in and around Boston. Maybe 3″ PVD up to 5″ in Boston. At this point, i’ll take it.

      1. As depicted, all or mostly snow (8-12″ of it) north of about the CT/RI border, with rain changing to snow south of there. It’s worth watching, the CMC and upgraded GFS also show a storm potential around then.

    2. The positives ….. Its a signal now repeating in that time frame for a few days.

      Its an opportunity that, in my opinion, represents the best chance thus far this cold season.

      Lets see, as a few more days pass by, if the signal is still there and what track may start to solidify.

  23. Well we can all go home as it is official. The Framingham Patch just sent out breaking news which read in part:

    A giant storm is headed our way and will likely bring heavy rain and wind on Christmas Eve. Rain is expected to start on Tuesday and it should intensify on Wednesday. Weather forecasters are predicting at least 1 to 2 inches of rain in Massachusetts.

    Batten down the hatches folks and, Santa, hook Rudolph up to your team!!!

  24. UGH is right Hadi for Christmas Eve Christmas Day. If it going to be mild in the winter at least have it be a sunny day and a cloudy damp day. I was very happy that your Redskins beat the Eagles Saturday which gave the Cowboys the opportunity to win the NFC East which they did. Two early Christmas gifts.

  28. It’s not unprecedented, but there may be some significant thunderstorms on Wednesday night somewhere in southern New England.

    2. I’ll say this and then duck. I would LOVE thunderstorms on Christmas Eve. Well, I’d love any weather but…

      1. I’ll enjoy whatever we have. It’s Christmas, and a few boomers would sure make it memorable that way.

      2. I reminded them yesterday Tk that you said February was going to be the snow month and than a very early start to spring .

  29. Would damaging wind gusts be the main threat should any thunderstorms develop in SNE?
    I saw Henry Margusity’s map earlier highlighting SNE in a thunderstorm risk.

    1. With strong winds just above the surface, any convection can always bring some strong gusts to the surface. We’ll just have to see how it pans out.

  30. Channel 4’s forecast/radar didn’t show much consistent rain at all. Sure, rain starting tomorrow until Christmas but plenty of breaks in the rain. Hoping that is the case.

  31. Trying to think if I’ve ever experienced a t-storm on Xmas and the only thing I can think of was a significant winter storm in the mid 2000’s (2005 maybe?) on Xmas Eve or day and there was whiteouts and thunder and lightning…

    1. Christmas Night storm 2002. Heavy mix to snow, including long periods of occasional lightning & thunder.

  32. Record highs for Chirstmas Eve and Day for Logan:

    12/24/1996 = 61F
    12/25/1889 = 65F (Boston Common)

    Either or both these records in jeopardy TK?

  33. One of the most notable near-Christmas thunderstorm episodes was Sunday 12-17-2000. We had a strip of cells move through in the evening that were putting down fairly frequent positive cloud-to-ground strikes with ground-shaking thunder booms. And the most remarkable thing about those storms, other than the air temp was in the 60s to near 70, was the cells were moving at over 70 MPH.

  34. Never bought an all-day rain for Wednesday. We’re going into a warm sector with a strong ridge to the east and a trough still well to the west. That means scattered to broken areas of showers and even some possible sunbreaks. There was a method to my madness when I ventured a “partly sunny” on my wording for Wednesday. May not happen, but it also may.

  37. WARNING to those driving anywhere.

    Eric Fisher retweeted
    MichaelWBZ ‏@MichaelWBZ 10m10 minutes ago
    A huge traffic nightmare on route #128 South, just past route 95 in #Peabody. All lanes are closed. Details in Traffic on the 3’s

  38. Traffic is a genuine Cluster F*** out there.
    Was very lucky at the Natick mall to pull in while someone was leaving.
    When it was time to leave, the exit was plugged completely. Total zoo.
    I snuck out around the parking lot and came out onto Speen Street by Sears.

    No problems East on rt. 9. Had to go to Legacy place, so headed down rt. 128.
    Plugged Solid. Got off on Needham street and took the side streets around to
    rt. 135 to Dedham. Got into Legacy place OK.

    When done, the regular exit and back exit totally and completely blocked and plugged for a 15 min. wait just to get out. There is a side entrance which I came in. Most people don’t realize that one can exit there as well. SO I exited at the side entrance
    and just zipped right on out of there. Amazing how some folks don’t use their heads. 😀

  40. TK, you’re not one to sensationalize. I appreciate that. But, I’m curious about this month’s total hours of sunshine. Without evidence at my disposal, this may be the grayest December on record. It’s been the worst aspect of this month’s weather, in my view. In the Netherlands, forecasters at the end of each month will give viewers the total number and average daily number of hours of sunshine. I remember quite a few January’s when they only got 15-20 total hours of sunshine. Boston is above 20 hours, but not by much. Perhaps we’re at 25 hours. We basically haven’t seen the sun in days and days. Last week we had a 3 day stretch of perhaps a total of 16 hours of sun, maybe. Occasional glimpses that last all of a minute or two do not add much to our sunshine index.

      1. I found this. It’s something, but NOT enough.

        Days with clear skies in Boston, Massachusetts
        Sunny Partly Sunny Total Days With Sun
        January 9 7 16
        February 8 7 15
        March 8 8 16
        April 7 8 15
        May 6 10 16
        June 7 10 17
        July 7 12 19
        August 9 11 20
        Septem 10 8 18
        October 11 8 19
        Novem 8 7 15
        Decembe 9 7 16
        Annual 98 103 201

  42. Thank you, OS. If I’m reading this correctly 1972 had the lowest percentage of clear skies at 21%. I remember that winter vaguely. I think it was much colder in December of 1972 than this year. Usually that means more clear skies, not less. Of course, it can be gray and cold like it was on Saturday. we’re headed for 1972 territory or worse.

    1. You are quite welcome. I had a few moments so gave it a quick search.

      And I agree with you. Pretty gloomy month.

  43. Persistent on/off SE ridge on the GFS. OYE!

    You know it’s bad when there’s not even any hype out there for snow on the east coast.

    1. True, and the longer this goes on the less winter has a chance to make its presence felt. I believe that in most cases hot summers start early, just as cold and snowy winters start early. I know there are exceptions – many perhaps (2012-2013!) – but I do think relatively mild, snow-less Decembers are generally not a good sign for winter lovers like myself.

  45. The CFS and the new ECMWF weeklies are very much trending towards what TK was saying the other day: we’re going to have the long anticipated switch to a cooler pattern after this Christmas rainstorm, but it looks much less impressive and much briefer than originally thought. After that, another switch to a much milder pattern appears likely heading into much of mid-January. Maybe it goes cold beyond that, but we’ve heard that before, and by then we’ve exhausted half of meteorological winter anyways (although it can of course snow in March). There may be a chance or two for snow between Dec 30 and Jan 10 or so, but I don’t see any glaring opportunities for big storms.

    2. Manning is the master of not doing well in big games. Believe me his is NOT looking forward to maybe coming to Foxboro.

      1. He’s not even gonna get that far. Pittsburgh will end up in Denver and will kick their ass. Problem is, that’s the one team I’m afraid of. Pats are susceptible to the big play and Ben has made a career on just that.

  49. The advertised push of cold air has not only been moved back, it’s meek in comparison to what was forecast as recently as a week ago. In addition, the shots of cool air (I’m not going to call it cold if it’s seasonal or above) are now expected to be short-lived. Could we indeed be reliving 2011-2012, or 1996-1997? That would be both incredible and very sad for me. What’s troubled me for quite some time is the lack of cold air in most of Canada since mid November. We don’t get our cold air from the east, south, or west. We get it from the north and northwest, and during a nor’easter from the northeast (although the real cold associated with a nor’easter is the Arctic High to our north or northwest). Without a supply of really cold air, I’m afraid we’re out of luck as far as major snows are concerned.

  50. I remember lot of Lakes Cutters in that 96-97 winter after the winter before had over 100 inches of snow.

    1. True. I also remember lots of gray skies in January and February with only a few bursts of cold, and some serious warm-up’s in February before … well, one of the most impressive snow storms of the 20th century: April 1, 1997.

    1. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. I hate the sucker. Happy he was picked.
      HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

  54. UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH~~~~~~~0~I(!@*&~@#&*^&*~%^~&!@#^%!@&^%!@&#%&^!@#$&!@#()^*#!~*

    Now the Euro takes the system for the 29th OTS

    And how about this for 10 days from now. Yes, this will ensure a supply of cold air.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122300/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_11.png

    I am getting the distinct feeling that this WINTER IS COOKED. DONE! FINI!
    before it even gets going.

    PATHETIC!!!

  55. All of the models now take the system for 12/29 OTS and they also take the New Year
    s Eve system OTS.

    It’s either a CUTTER or OTS. NICE

    1. The pattern just isn’t there O.S. Timing is off, streams aren’t right, just not in sync. Gonna be that way for a while I’m betting.

      No 90% frozen Great Lakes this year. I forget but has Logan had measurable snow yet?

      1. Hi Retrac. Yup, I’m afraid you are so right.

        Logan is at 2.9 inches

        2.6 for November and .3 for December. PATHETIC.

        I wonder what the record is for December? 0.00 I imagine.
        CLose in any case.

        2. Horn Pond in Woburn is still water, but some of the satellite ponds are iced over since they are more shallow and reach the critical temp of 39F more easily.

  56. I’m still somewhat optimistic at a chance of snow in the few days prior to or around New Years.

    Both models seem to show a sharp temp contrast to our south and southwest, from the mid central Gulf area, northeastward to the mid Atlantic States.

    Have to figure, if that’s a decent representation, that there will be some impulses of low pressure riding along it.

    I’m not too concerned this morning of the current idea that it will be suppressed. Certainly, that could be the outcome.

    I just like the general big picture scenario. It gives me some hope for a possible snow event.

  57. Updating the blog shortly…
    White Christmas? Keep dreaming.
    Return to cold pattern? Colder periods coming, not a persistent pattern.
    Will it ever snow again? We’re not even 48 hours into Winter. What do you think? HINT: “no” would be the wrong answer.

  58. Don’t forget, your “official” WHW long range forecast included a very slow start to the accumulating snow season. 😛

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