Keep Dreaming

307 Comments

8:24AM

If you were dreaming of a mild and wet Christmas, it will come true. If you were dreaming of a White Christmas around southeastern New England, keep dreaming. You’ll have to head into northern and far western New England to find residual snow on the ground from previous snow events. But this time around here, we have a mild rain event for the 2 days leading up to and including part of the holiday itself.

A well-advertised, but weaker-than-originally-hyped-to-be low pressure area will crank up and move through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada during the next few days. This system will first drag a warm front toward and eventually through southeastern New England with periods of rain and drizzle ahead of it in the relatively cool and damp air. Once that front goes by, it will introduce a moderate to strong southerly flow of unseasonably mild air with clusters of showers and even possible thunderstorms within that warm sector for much of Christmas Eve day into night as well. The cold front associated with this storm system will push eastward across the region on Christmas Day, eventually putting an end to the wet weather as a drying westerly wind takes over, though it may not completely clear out until the night.

High pressure will slide eastward passing just south of New England Friday and Saturday. This will maintain milder than normal conditions with dry weather for these days. By Sunday, a cold front will cross the region from the west, and we’ll probably just see some rain showers ahead of and with the front and maybe a few snow showers behind it as a shot of colder air arrives later Sunday and then lasts through Monday of next week, which should be a dry day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY AND TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers day. Scattered to numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms at night. Temperatures rising from the 40s through the 50s during the day to a nighttime high of 58-65. Wind shifting to S and increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Cloudy morning with rain showers likely, but ending from west to east midday. Mostly cloudy afternoon but clearing line approaching from west with sun possible especially Boston area westward before sunset. Temperatures falling through the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers morning and a few snow showers late day. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

307 thoughts on “Keep Dreaming”

  1. Thanks TK. The outlook continues to get bleaker and bleaker.

    Slow start to the Snow Season. Sure you don’t mean NO season? 😀

      1. Are you sure of that?
        Earlier I was gung Ho on snow for this season.

        Although I realize it is still early, I do NOT like the signs right now.

        We shall see.

        I certainly can recall some winters where there was Nothing in December and most of January and then WHAM we got pounded in February and March. Feb-Mar 1969 come to mind.

        1. The current and upcoming short to medium range pattern is not great for snow. There is going to be several pattern readjustments this season. Transitional patterns give chances. The only pattern that gives more consistent ones is a locked in snowy pattern like the 6-week stretch a few Winters back.

  4. Thanks TK.
    Bengals gave every Patriots fan a nice gift last night. I will say what I said a couple weeks ago I don’t see anyone beating the Patriots at home during the postseason. Patroits will go to the Super Bowl.
    As far as weather UGH especially if you love snow! I look back to the winter of 12-13 when a lot of people were saying in early February another dud of a winter than BAM the blizzard on February 8-9 and Boston ended up with over 60 inches of snow that winter. You get 2-3 storms 10 plus inches winter isn’t a dud.

  6. This is what makes up averages. Some years are snowier than others and other years are duds. I am not ready to call this winter a dud yet. I will wait to early February before doing that.

  8. NWS out of Upton, NY gives SLIGHT hope Sunday night into Monday.
    FOR NOW GOING WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
    MONDAY TO REFLECT POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
    S…WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS N ZONES…AND RAIN CHANGING
    TO SNOW ACROSS S ZONES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
    TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK AND NUMBER OF THESE WAVES. FOR NOW BEST TO
    CHARACTERIZE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS POTENTIALLY
    UNSETTLED…WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW THAN RAIN AT MOST
    LOCATIONS…IF ANY THING FALLS AT ALL. GIVEN LARGE DEGREE OF
    UNCERTAINTY…IT IS TO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHAT…IF ANY IMPACT
    THERE WILL BE FROM THESE POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE COASTAL LOWS PASSING
    TO THE S.

    1. interesting.

      I dismissed the GFS sending moisture off shore, but when the Euro and CMC also sent it off shore, I pretty much gave up the ghost.

      So is Upton thinking that it oozes on back up here?

      Hmmm

      Let’s see IF the 12Z runs bring it farther North. 😀

  9. NWS out of Albany, NY
    FOR SATURDAY NIGHT…THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAY EITHER SWEEP
    THROUGH OUR AREA OR SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING
    SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
    WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DRY
    CONDITIONS DOMINATED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM OR POSSIBLE STORMINESS
    DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. BASED ON THE
    TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN
    RIDGE WELL…THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
    FACTOR. STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT CERTAIN…BUT
    ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
    FOR RAIN…SNOW AND/OR BOTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
    WITH THIS CHAOTIC PATTERN.

  10. JJ, thank you.

    This was key to me: BASED ON THE
    TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO NOT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN RIDGE WELL…THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A FACTOR.

      1. I didn’t think you would, however, this was the scenario you described a bit ago that “could” have produced the SNEAKY SNOW. I guess that has passed.

  11. Way too early to get down on the snow for this year. The pattern will change and it will snow. All it takes is one big Nor’easter to put us back on track. December is not our snowiest month so we have that going for us.

    1. True. December is a Fickle Month. It can go either way, but typically by the time we get to Christmas Week and the week in between Christmas and New Year’s
      we typically get a SNOW STORM. Let’s see IF we can get that sneaky snow
      TL was discussing. 😀

  12. I really like DT’s approach this season. His current post highlights the very biggest issue that is giving medium to long range forecasters trouble right now: The QBO. I suggest you read his blog post accessible by the link given above by Old Salty.

    I’m sure he would not mind the recognition, but our blog friend Scott (who in my opinion is going to be one of the best long range forecasters) and I were chatting back in October at the SNE Weather Conference and our biggest concern going into the early part of Winter was indeed the Pacific jet stream. You can probably find references to this in posts or comments made back in late October and November on this blog. The QBO’s current phase is the main driver of this very strong Pacific jet which, as DT says, still shows no signs of letting up. This is even longer than I and others expected it to stay so strong. But the fact is, that is continues to prevent the pattern change that was being forecast. I now see that continuing for some time into early January, but fighting against what would have been an easy switch to cold again in the eastern US. The result? There will be colder shots upcoming, not just climatologically but pattern-driven. But we will not be able to sustain it. Whether or not that leads to more snow chances for New England remains to be seen. Strong enough cold shots and we’re dry. Timing can bring storms through while mild air is in place with cold/dry periods between. Or it can go the other way, and snow during the cold. I haven’t figured that part out yet.

    1. Many thanks TK. Enjoy reading your thoughts on this.

      I understand it is too early to give up, however, there is enough going on to
      give one pause.

      Time will tell.

  13. I believe we get plenty of snow this winter that just started on Sunday as anything that may have fallen before that is fall snow. A few big storms and there goes the numbers. If though winter does exit early march is what I believe tk said and we have short lasting cold shots this winter will fly by.

  14. Also I believe the chances for snow on Sunday night remain at zilch. Going to be very mild air starting tomorrow.

    1. It will be cold enough to snow Sunday night. Question will be whether or not there is any moisture to go along with the cold.

      The very mild air arriving tomorrow is the warm sector of the Great Lakes storm and has nothing to do with what will take place later in the weekend.

  15. I’m almost certain that rain totals that were being talked about by many media are going to end up being too high and that you can basically cut them in half for this event.

    We may also spend a whole lot of time rain-free tomorrow. Still cannot rule out a little sunshine as well, certainly not lasting, but breaks of it.

  16. Thank you TK

    I am dreaming of Christmas – white, green or brown – full of family, friends, love and health!!

    Happy day before the day before Christmas 🙂

    1. Well said Vick . It’s all about family to me not weather on Xmas day as long as there’s no snow to take me away from them. I’m looking forward to 3:00 tomorrow than I’ll be in full Xmas mode and thinking I’m off work till next year yay!!!!! My wife and son giving me a new puppy for Xmas and she should be waiting to meet me when I get home . Molly is doing as well as can be expected and we wanted her here for the holidays .

    1. May actually exacerbate the zonal flow, in my humble opinion. I’m not seeing any significant cold anywhere on any map, except near Santa’s abode. It does not look like a late December map at all. We shall see, but let’s not get our hopes up about winter this year. Could it come? Yes. And maybe Santa is real after all.

      2. We don’t need bone chilling cold or below average cold to get snow especially in January when climatically speaking it is easier to snow.

      3. Josh the winter will come come on now. There will be a shift you’ll see. Personally I don’t mind this but would like more sunny days with it.

  20. lol OS! We both have very different views on that one. I was going by the hope from yesterday’s guidance, mostly the euro, that this system would affect us. Today, not so sure.

      1. All I am doing is taking into consideration what the Upton
        and Albay NWS offices were saying.

        When I say the GFS 12/29 and 12/31 systems are close, I meanin the grand scheme of things IF it is NOT handling the Southern
        Stream and SE ridge well.

        Sure, as depicted it might as well pass over Bermuda. 😆 😆

        Let’s see what 12Z Euro and CMC say. Probably more of the same.

    2. But …. its there and we continue to be on the cold side of the boundary ….

      I’d be more worried of a miss if it was actually showing a hit right now.

    3. I remember that Christmas well and have mentioned it here before. The Cambridge reservoir (extra supply) was across the street from our house and I remember walking around it on Christmas day in my new (and very up-to-date and stylish may I add 🙂 ) tennis sweater. At least I seem to recall that is what we called them.

        1. I think I remember that one because at my age it was first time we had a warm Christmas. I remember all Christmas though for a different kind of wrapping 🙂

      1. Media (for what it is worth) has been reporting major delays up and down coast for tomorrow and tomorrow night.

  28. Looks like the GFS Parallel brings the 1st wave close enough develops it into
    MORE than a WAVE and clears out the front so there are NO MORE waves.

    Drastically DIFFERENT than the regular GFS.

    One of them is OUT TO LUNCH!!!

  29. Good afternoon!! Beautiful winters day!! I still think the beginning of jan gives us our 1st meaningful snow of the year, time will tell, Merry Christmas and happy new year!!

    Sunset 4:18pm, Jan 31st 5:01pm, were gaining 🙂

    1. You are being sarcastic about a “beautiful winter’s day” right? It’s downright miserable out there. Raw with a mist/drizzle. Feels like a late March/early April day in NE.

  31. Gotta love the consistency of the euro, baahaha. Its not taking the 12/30 system directly overhead with all rain

        1. Well then, i should really wait for wundermaps, instantweathermaps is crap for the euro, its so difficult to tell

          1. Not that the Wundermap is perfect by any stretch.

            Wundermap jumped from 135 hours to 180 hours.
            Waiting for panels to fill in to get a better handle on things.

          2. Hmm, i cant see the details for hours 135-180, BUT, i would caution wundermaps and their snowfall algorithms which have proven to be suspect so far this year

  32. Ok, here is the CMC version of it’s 12/30 system. Off shore.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2014122312&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=147

    SO we have GFS, GFS Parallel and CMC off shore and the EURO coming just about right over us, after having it off shore last night. Last night’s FIM was OFF shore as well.

    FWIW, the UKMET looks to take it West of us, or over us. Can’t exactly tell just yet.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=144

    So just perhaps there is a balance here and we get a BM system?????

  33. The Euro shows a MUCH more amplified upper air flow than the others.
    Which of course means it would come up here and it would be STRONGER.

    1. I was just going to say that. We getting bogged down with the nitty gritty of something that is at least 6 days out. Yes, indeed, likely to change.

      What I find interesting is that the other models are coming back North some.

      This one “may” just happen.

      We shall see.

  34. A nice 6 inch snowfall with the latest run of the EURO which I will be happy with. I know this will change but at least there is a chance at some wintry weather next week.

  35. Wundermap is in for hour 162.

    Snowmap is the same as at 180 hours, so looks like FRONT end snow.
    At 162 hours 850MB temps way too warm. Surface temps in mid 30s with wind from
    NE to NNE. Not sure of the total temp profile, so it is likely plain RAIN OR
    possibly SLEET?

  36. I don’t trust that Euro snow map at all. It shows Boston staying above freezing for the entire duration of the storm. With the precipitation modeled as light, that would be a cold rain, not snow, for eastern areas. Farther west, towards Worcester, there would be accumulating snow potential in that scenario. I’m not sure what to make of the whole setup though, the models are way all over the place. Does not look like a major snowstorm setup though.

    1. Not in the traditional N’or Easter perhaps not, however, there is COLD air
      to our North, warm air to our South, Some nice support at 500,300 and 200 MB levels to crank out some really decent qpf. AND it is not likely to pass as far North as depicted by the Euro. I say this is our BEST chance for a long long time.

      Could it bust out, certainly. but I wouldn’t poo poo so much at this point.

      In a few days it may be a FORK storm. Who knows. At this point, it is
      a distinct possibility.

      We shall see.

  38. Hour 150 is in and 850 temps are great. Any snow that falls, comes between
    18Z on 12/29 and 6Z on 12/30, very likely changing to a cold rain and/or sleet
    depending on total temperature profile which I cannot see. Melting at 5,000 feet
    for sure. Whether there is enough cold below that to freeze it into sleet or not,
    I have no way of knowing.

  39. As you indicated Old Salty this may be our best shot at snow for a while. NAO takes a dip towards neutral then NAO goes back into the positive territory. Last winter there were some decent snowfalls with the NAO near neutral. Of course there were other factors that helped.

      1. I did not know that ……

        A big concern anytime of year, but with all the preparations, travel, etc …… probably the last thing anyone needs to be concerned about.

  42. I wonder if the lack of cold air around, with no warmth being lost to melting snow, may maximize the warmth in this warm sector the next 36 hrs.

    I dont really see anything to hold it back.

    Its not like its in the 20s inland or its not -5F in Caribou, ME with high pressure to our north or northeast.

    It just seems to me like the stage is set for the warm air to roar in here, even at the surface and even for most inland locations.

    1. Yes, highly likely. It’s just a question of how warm it gets.
      We still have an ocean to our South and Southeast which will temper
      the warmth some.

      Low 60s with an outside shot at mid 60s is my guess.

  44. I hope this is not the only shot at snow. I remember back in the winter of 06-07 a coastal storm in December looked promising to give us a good dumping of snow and it did not. Go to find out that was the only shot at a good dumping of snow for the entire winter.
    I believe Boston ended up with 17.1 inches for that season.

  45. IF there is to be an east coast system around Dec 30/31, I think the EURO’s take makes more sense than the GFS ….

    In addition to their track records, what teleconnection favors suppression of storms along the east coast ? None.

    The storm affecting us now is not going to get blocked to sit in the Maritimes and block future storminess.

    If anything, it looks like it travels way, way northbound into northern Canada.

    I dont think it would then be too difficult to sharpen up the flow along the east Coast, perhaps by a strengthening southeast ridge, then again, is not likely to have anything suppress it to a major degree.

      3. NH presidentials. I have absolutely no idea. I’m always too busy looking off into the distance when I see mountain views.

  47. Some really bad signs for this winter. 1. NAO turning positive once more in January. Hence, no blocking, and high probability of more lakes cutters. 2. No outbreak of real cold anywhere, even when forecasted several times in recent weeks. Just not coming. Just not there. And, if you take a look at the country you will see consistently above average temperatures and a lot of gray skies to go along with it. 3. This pattern is not ending, and appears to reassert itself week after week after week.

    Yes, there will be occasional dips in temperature and the odd threat of snow, but I am sensing pretty much a winterless winter ahead for SNE. Sorry to be frank. I hope I am wrong, because this weather right now is the pits.

  48. Thank you for guessing on the snow mountain photo.

    Now I’ll give a hint. NOT East coast.
    AND close to a Major US city.

      1. Yes sir re. We Have a WINNER.

        The photo was take from San Antonio Peak, just outside of Los Angeles after a 12 inch snowfall.

        Mount San Antonio, commonly known as Mount Baldy, at 10,068 ft (3,069 m), is the highest peak in the San Gabriel Mountains, and the highest point in Los Angeles County. Mount San Antonio’s sometimes snow-capped peaks are visible on clear days and dominate the view of the Los Angeles skyline.

  52. Combo of both factors you mention. I am a bit out on a limb here but have had a fairly good handle on the pesistince of this pattern and don’t see anything radically different in climatic set up to alter it quite yetz

  53. 18Z GFS came way north and is colder than the Euro from what I can see..I wouldn’t rely so heavily on the current patterns persistence as a reason to call for more of the same or rain vs snow. I think the atmosphere is currently in a state of change albeit slower than most thought towards a colder pattern with more opportunities for snow.

  57. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    The 18z GFS hit the egg nog a bit early. A snowstorm on Monday and a blizzard on New Years Eve! Not exactly locking in that solution yet

  58. It’s funny. The UKMET is quietly sitting right near the top in model performance…

    GFS is currently standing for “Gone For Sure”. It’s out to lunch.

    Once upon a time it tried to put this upcoming system offshore and give SNE a big snow.

    Of course, once upon a recent run the ECMWF gave 4-8 inches over a 5 day period which included the weekend just passed. So to be fair, it’s hurting a bit too.

    1. TK how much rain do you think we will get tomorrow? I know you mentioned cutting amounts in half. I ask because in Petes blog he is calling for BIG rain tomorrow. Curious why he doesn’t see what you do???

      1. Not sure why. I figure 0.50-1.00 inch as a general rule. There will be heavier bands so some areas will go over 1.00 inch. I do not believe that will be widespread. We really only get a couple clusters of rain with embedded downpours and they will be moving very quickly. Not enough time for the big amounts.

        1. Ok thanks. I trust you. Just find it odd that you are sometimes at odds with the tv Mets and you are usually right. You should go on tv.

          1. I don’t think the news directors would like me that much. 😀

            I did radio in 1989-1990 when I was 22 years old. That was probably the most public I’ll ever be.

          2. Amen on that…but I will still keep my basement drain open since there is no more vegetation. Still 1″+ rain expected. 🙂

  60. I have noticed that the TV mets have finally stopped talking about 3-inch amounts. Of course TK never believed in that much rain from the beginning. 😉

    Speaking of the TV mets, they are now hinting at a wintry mix event for Monday. I think I can guess this far in advance what TK’s thoughts are on that. 😉

  61. I love the tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan here in CT about 18z GFS for next week. I found it to be a good laugh. I posted it earlier.

  62. Thanks TK 😀 I don’t mind a wet Christmas…I mean, hey, “white,” “wet”… both begin with “w.” Clearly Mother Nature got confused. 😉

    1. Hi Emily. In case you are not here tomorrow, I would like to wish you a very special Christmas.

      Mom nature is fickle. I love fickle. :).

  63. I now hope for a full out snow storm with 40mph winds with power going out all around worcester specifically spencer mass new years eve!! RAGE!!

  65. Thunderblizzard on the big island of Hawaii tonight. 🙂

    From NWS Honolulu HI
    Occasional snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 30. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 55 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

  68. It was closing in on 50 when I left the house at 46 and it’s 41 in the city now. Will boston record a new high temp tomorrow, I believe so and maybe doing it first thing.

  69. Good morning. More Model MAYHEM today. Simply BRUTAL.

    Timing differences, intensity differences, jokes, amusement and pure buffoonery!!

    What do you believe? What do you believe?

    I just don’t want to give up on snow.

    GFS is a total joke and I don’t know which one is more so, the reg or parallel.

    SO here is the score card for 12/29/12/30

    EURO SNOW
    CMC SNOW
    DGEX SNOW
    GFS NOTHING
    GFS PAR NOTHING
    FIM NOTHING
    JMA NOTHING
    NAVGEM NOTHING
    UKMET RAIN

    1. This Taunton NWS discussion sums it up fairly well:

      RIDGE OFF SE COAST HOLDS ITS
      OWN AND LEADS TO DIFFICULTIES IN HOW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INTERACT ACROSS CENTER OF COUNTRY. 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE SOUTHERN
      STREAM ENERGY AND MAINTAINS MORE SEPARATION THAN GFS WHICH HAS BROADER TROUGH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT TO OUR S…NAMELY HOW FAR N IT BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MODELS HAVE CERTAINLY SHOWN
      SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION OVER PAST DAY OR TWO EITHER COMPLETELY SUPPRESSING SYSTEM TO OUR S OR BRINGING IT DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN VARIATIONS IN HAVING ONE
      LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR A SERIES OF TWO WEAKER LOWS.

        2. Saw “White Christmas” at the Wang Center last evening. Had tickets for Saturday night, but couldn’t go because of a family Christmas Party. Sold them on StubHub and got
          ALL of my money back. Then a friend got us FREE tickets, Loge Box, for
          last night. Awesome seats.

          The show, not so awesome. Pretty Hokey with sub-par performances. A disappointment. But the seats were GREAT!

  70. GFS now down to 1.2 inches of rain at Logan for this storm. Nice call TK on the amounts. Looks like the models are still trending down.

  72. OS: “What do you believe? What do you believe?” I believe santa will hitch rudolph to his sleigh tonight.

    Happy Christmas Eve Day, WHW family!!

    1. Rudolph will need his JET PACK tonight and then some.

      Weatherwise, one of the most DISGUSTING Christmases ever.

        1. I’m fine. Still DISGUSTING weather.

          I’m actually BETTER than I have EVER been with
          this kind of weather around this time of year.
          Seriously, A ZILLION times better. 😀 😀 😀

  74. Good morning all. 🙂

    I’ll get the least-nice thing I have to say out of the way, but I feel it necessary because I firmly believe it is a problem in social media, as you all know. And that is the weather pages and sites being run by non-meteorologists that are duping people into thinking they are legit enough to actually know how to forecast, when they are doing one of 2 things: 1) Wish-casting, i.e., finding whichever model is the coldest/snowiest scenario and trying to justify why that’s the right solution; 2) Paraphrasing information from experts making it sound like their own and posting a bunch of fancy graphics they pull from other sources or in some cases making up their own. I hesitate to mention any of these by name here on my blog, because some of them are just legitimately high school and college age kids that are enthusiastic about weather and want to do it for real, but haven’t been able to go about this the right way, or to learn how to do it before attempting it. Of course, others have been a little more malicious in their intent and that’s a whole different issue. If you are on Facebook, for example, you probably know the names of a couple of these sites and you can then visit them to see a glaring example of what I mean. If not, I’ll summarize one without naming it. Several posts about a major pattern change and after a brief warm up around December 10, Winter arriving and locking in for the East, increasing confidence of major snowstorms giving a White Christmas to the I-95 corridor. BEFORE you say “Hey but a lot of the real met’s were thinking pattern change too!” let me finish. YES, many of us did indicate that pattern change, sparing you the details of things we could not guarantee. And of course as you all know now, that did not work out so well up to this point and is still not likely to work out very well heading into the early days of 2015. Here’s the difference. Go to any of the “not-so-real” weather pages and what do you see? No posts since around December 15 (before that in a few cases). The last posts saying how they were “not ready to give up on a snowstorm based on a few bad model runs”. What? You give yourself away right there. You’re not online to give people weather information. You’re online to sensationalize, wish-cast, be the first to “stir the pot”. That’s not how it works. The rest of us have been keeping people informed on what is really going on, telling them that our original thoughts on the pattern were not working out, and then explaining why. That is how it works, people. Even those of us that have studied the atmosphere for decades and gone through all the work to earn our degrees and get experience are going to be flat out wrong at times. But we’re going to stick around to learn why, explain why, learn from it, and strive to improve. It’s a very slow process, sometimes feeling like climbing an icy slope wearing rubber gloves and bowling shoes, but that’s how it goes. It’s inexact. It’s meteorology.

    Moving on… 🙂

    As I type this, fog and drizzle outside my window in Woburn, I’m looking at the obs and seeing (as of 8AM) generally the same conditions across southeastern New England, temps ranging from 39 to 50 (mildest near Cape Cod) and a light N to E wind everywhere. There is only patchy light rain on radar so it’s basically all drizzle that’s making it so damp. And the warm front, obviously, has not made it. We should have known it would take its time. But it will be here, probably during the course of this afternoon from south to north. That’s when the drizzle/fog will vanish and the southerly wind will increase. By now we know the drill, it’ll likely be strongest in the warm sector down across southeastern MA, mainly Cape Cod, and some high elevations. But we’ll all feel that push of warm air tonight, along with periodic rain showers, some heavy, and even still the chance of some thunder embedded in any of the heavy showers. It all gets out of here with the cold front during Christmas morning, west to east. In a while, the blog will get an update but to be honest with you, I’m not really sure what to go for near the end of the period. As noted above, many solutions on models but I think the safe bet this time will be to play it very general and low confidence in wording. Once I figure out where that leads me, I’ll go there.

    So back to today, Christmas Eve for many of us. If you are celebrating Christmas, do you have any traditions you’d like to tell us about? If so, respond here. My day will go very much as it has for years, with typical time-necessary adjustments, and sparing you all the details, the day includes a midday trip to the bakery to get all the goodies, meeting up with my brother downstairs in Mom’s kitchen to pre-fry all the shrimp and smelts for tonight’s dinner. Mom will bake the haddock later, and of course she’s made her famous batch of spaghetti sauce which for Christmas Eve includes anchovy (but she makes a plain batch for the few who desire that as well), and early this evening after several pounds of spaghetti have been cooked we (about 15 of us) will all meet up for a great Christmas Eve dinner including all of the above and of course, some great Italian bread. Between the shrimp frying and the dinner, I will take a 2-part walk around the local high school and the neighborhood with my son. Once upon a time my daughter went on this walk with me, and once up a longer-ago time one of my brothers started this tradition with me when I was little, probably at the request of my mother so he could pre-occupy a very excited little kid. Well now my SON has to pre-occupy me. Oh how times change. 😉

    Later tonight, I will be taking my Mom to Midnight Mass. The church she goes to somehow has found the best trumpeter anywhere, and he makes for an amazing experience. I myself this late night will be watching one of my favorite holiday movies (American Christmas Carol starring Henry Winkler) and enjoying some sparkling cider, cheese & crackers, and of course finally getting to sleep just before Santa’s arrival. Yup, he still comes. We’re all still kids here. 😀

    Merry Christmas!

    1. Enjoy and merry Christmas tk. I’m on vacation starting at 3 we stay home tonight and track Santa on the computer wake up early and have a great Xmas morning. Tomorrow heading over my sisters in Plymouth where Christmas will continue with all of the family. Merry Christmas to all here.

    2. TK, awesome post.

      re: The fake sites
      You are 100% dead on. It is most disturbing. Not sure what can be done, but we SUPPORT you completely on any efforts to thwart them. If there is anything we can do, please let us know.

      re: Weather today
      Just looking forward to this damn drizzle ending

      re: The end of the weekend
      I’m rooting for the Euro for SNOW, but not sure it can be trusted.
      Worried about what you keep saying about the UKMET. That would NOT be good. Waiting on 12Z runs.

      re: Christmas Traditions
      Nothing special. Christmas Eve get together at My daughter’s Sister-in-law
      Christmas Day at my Daughter’s in Hopkinton. She always has egg nog for me. The only time I have it all year long. (no not spiked, No Alcohol for me).

      One last thing. I can’t speak for others, but I LOVE this site and Really appreciate the tremendous job you do. I have LEARNED so much since being here!! It’s also fantastic that we can all disagree in a civil and friendly manner.
      A very cordial site and WELL RUN.

      THANK YOU. THANK YOU! THANK YOU!!!

      MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!!!

      1. A final word (for now) on those sites. I don’t ever EVER want to discourage a young weather enthusiast that wants to become a meteorologist. But there’s a right way and a wrong way to go about putting information out to the public, and that’s what I want to see done the right way.

        Thank you for your nice words. I’m very glad to have you here, along with all the others who are here as well!

        Merry Christmas!

    3. Loved this TK! Nothing better than holiday traditions. Yesterday I mentioned to a friend that I still had all of the stocking stuffers to wrap. She suggested not wrapping them and I practically gasped. My stocking stuffers were ALWAYS wrapped and my kids have the same. Tonight we go to my uncle’s house which we have done for my entire life. It is a lot more crowded now that my cousins and I have all grown up and had our own kids. I wouldn’t change it for the world.

      Enjoy your day with your family TK. Merry Christmas!

      1. Wrapping stocking stuffers. I had never thought of that. Mac did all the wrapping this year. He doesn’t like shopping so bargained and I did shopping and he did wrapping. I think he got the bad end of the deal as I tend to get rather carried away with gifts. I can imagine if I mentioned wrapping stocking stuffers. I don’t know if you have ever seen Christmas Eve on Sesame Street but I picture him looking something like big bird when Oscar asks him at the end how the Easter bunny delivers all those eggs in one night.

    5. Thank you TK. I loved reading your special plans. It is all about family and friends and love. Today, as Sue said, is probably my favorite of the two. I have a plaque that remains up all year and reads “Forever Christmas Eve”.

      We head to church for the living nativity then dinner and then nana reads the night before Christmas and the polar express. The attraction during reading of the polar express is to see far I get before starting to have happy tears.

      Our tradition as the kids grow and grands arrive is to open gifts here with youngest and her family. Then off to oldests for more opening. Son and family will join is there.

      Merry Christmas and a wonderful last night of Hanukkah !!

  75. It is my favorite day of the year!!! Not going to let the fog and drizzle ruin the Christmas spirit. Wishing all of my WHW family a very Merry Christmas!

  80. Merry Christmas Eve! There’s a boat load of precip streaming up the eastern seaboard. Downright miserable xmas eve weather-wise for 1/3 of the country. Making the most of it though 🙂

    1. It could have been worse and have been snow. A lot of us can agree that would have wrecked Xmas for many families as people would be stuck at home.

  82. 12Z GFS keeps things for the 29/30 period SUPPRESSED. :crying:

    31st, not looking so good, but we shall see as more frames come out.

    I see A cutter coming after that.

  83. GFS had a little too much to drink at the weather models holiday party. I am not buying that and even if other models say that plenty of time for that to change.

  90. happy christmas eve all, In my family we have a fancy dinner made, roastbeef, and a bunch of other food. Or seafood and a bunch of other food, this year is roastbeef.
    christmas is spent opening gifts and having a good breakfeast .. Moms coffee cake, pine apple stuff like that 🙂 then out to my aunts and uncles for the early part of the afternoon. then to grandparents 🙂 … then there is no such thing as december 26 in our house… its called december 25 and a half. when we open the gifts we did not open christmas morning 😉 so technically part of my christmas will be dry 🙂

    Merry christmas everyone

  91. Looking out a bit into next week, I think the cold air is held mostly at bay and that precip events are more likely to be wet rather than white. In fact, we may have a New Year’s Day area system that is very similar to what is going on today, in terms of sensible weather, but coming from a system that is strung out along a far-stretching frontal zone.

    1. Thanks, TK. Can’t say I’m looking forward to more rain and clouds. But, hey, it’s the pattern we’re in. There are worse things in life.

      Merry Christmas.

  92. Well there are signs the Pacific jet is going to be in control for a while. You can thank the QBO for being strongly negative.

    1. It’s going to get cold and start snowing soon in England, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Pattern looks to stay that way for a while as well, as the prevailing southwesterly there shifts to a southeasterly/easterly. After two winter-less winters in a row, they’re due for some winter weather. Generally speaking, however, when it’s cold and snowy there (which is fairly unusual) it’s not cold and snowy here.

      1. Nope.

        Shall we have a FORK party. How about a BEACH PARTY!!!

        It’s Christmas Eve and I can’t even put on a heavy coat.
        I’m still wearing my light weight jacket.

        I saw the 12Z Euro and about PUKED my guts up.

        I GIVE UP!

        1. Here’s what I’m currently thinking, which may provide you with some optimism on a late winter surge. We may have a repeat of the 1955-1956 winter, which featured almost no snow until … March when several major storms impacted SNE. Turning point was a major pattern shift, which started in late February with a return to colder temperatures and then a blocking pattern conducive to nor’easters. I wasn’t around during that winter, but my parents have mentioned it several times. Of course, a more recent simile is 1996-1997. And we know what happened then. I’m not really a fan of winters that come late. I feel like regardless of whether we have a mild or cold winter we always have a cool or cold spring. And, that makes me not like spring.

          1. Thanks Joshua. I REMEMBER that March.

            I was 9 years old. After the 3rd storm I had
            to walk down town and the Snow was nearly up to my waist and I was no shorty either, believe me.

            I’d rather we DIDN’t have a WInter, than have a late one like you describe. 😀

            re: SPRING
            Generally around here, I HATE SPRING. COLD, DAMP, RAW and PUTRID!!!! Constant FACUCKTA EAST WIND!!!

  93. Bah Humbug indeed!!!
    I’m about ready to Write the whole damn Winter Off.

    PATHETIC! _!*@#()*!()&*@#!*(@#&**(!(@#&*(!&@#(*!&@#*(!&@#

  94. Just looked at the 18Z NAM. Boy pretty DEVOID of precipitation for this WELL ADVERTISED LAND BOMB. Ha ha ha ha ha ha.

  95. A few cool images of Snow Capped volcanoes in Hawaii

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/bb56a23a-55bb-4adf-8380-4a66b4e5471b.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/bb56a23a-55bb-4adf-8380-4a66b4e5471b.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/bb56a23a-55bb-4adf-8380-4a66b4e5471b.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    (MORE: Weirdest White Christmases)

    Hawaii Blizzard Warning

    Blizzard warnings are in effect until 6 p.m. local time for Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa above 11,500 feet. Strong winds are expected with heavy snow which will lead to blowing and drifting snow and visibilities will be below 1/4 mile at times.

    This is only the second blizzard warning that the National Weather Service office in Honolulu has issued since 1986. The only other blizzard warning was on Dec. 5, 2007.

    2. That’s weird. Wonder if Obama and family are doing some hiking today. Probably not as these are active volcanoes.

  96. Waves of tropical torrents moving through …….

    Plymouth and Provincetown both around 55F with SE to S winds, the south shore is about to be overtaken by warm air.

    Even Caribou, ME is above 32F with light rain.

    I was telling my wife that we could have driven all the way to Cape Breton, Nova Scotia without fear of snow or ice today. Truly amazing …….. We tried to make a wedding once many years ago in Cape Breton a few days after Christmas and made it to central Maine and gave up ….. There had been a big snowstorm a few days prior, Rte 95 was a mess and we just didnt want to deal with that for several hundred more miles.

  98. Bit disappointed…I thought this was going to be a rainstorm with breaks but has been a wall of water and the radar show no breaks. Sucks as I was hoping for more intermittent rain for my driveway. On flood watch now…Merry Christmas!:(

    1. Not sure which radar you were looking at. There were lots of breaks. I was outside several times late afternoon and evening in a very light rain. And there were some pockets of moderate rain. It never did rain heavily here. My rain total hasn’t reached 1 inch, and is pretty much right where it was expected to be.

  100. This is from Yesterday:

    From Eric Clapton:
    More sad news, we just learned that our friend Joe Cocker has passed away, he was 70. RIP

  102. Our worst winters to date:

    1. 1936-1937 = 9.0″
    2. 2011-2012 = 9.3″
    3. 1972-1973 = 10.3″

    2014-2015 to date = 2.9″ 🙁

  106. Breaking news: It’s been reported that several hours ago, after consulting the latest GFS and NAM models, and before leaving his base near Alert, Canada, Santa called on Rudolph to guide his sleigh through New England tonight. Around 7:45pm, in Van Buren, Maine, a blinking red bulb was spotted streaking across the night sky. And minutes ago, in Presque Isle, a rotund man with an impressive white beard was seen atop the roof of a single family home on Academy Street, near the Aristook Medical Center, wearing an XXXXL yellow rain poncho. So, it would appear that despite the persistent fog, children of New England will get their presents after all.

    1. There are unsubstantiated reports that he did not properly clear customs at the Caribou ME Customs Station and that the border patrol has indicated that he is carrying some kind of contraband…rumored to be Cuban cigars.

  109. The unsubstantiated reports have now been substantiated. Indeed, Santa and his reindeer were briefly apprehended at the Canadian border. Santa’s bag marked “children” contained nothing but toys, game consoles, and other items made in China. However, the bag marked “adults” included the aforementioned Cuban cigars, along with an unusually large number of weather instruments for individuals residing in southern New England, among which barometers, thermometers, rain gauges, anemometers and microbarographs. A quick conference call involving Presidents Obama and Castro resolved the Cuban cigar ordeal. However, upon learning that southern New England may be home to several hundred weather nuts, customs officials decided to trail Santa’s sleigh as he passed through the cities of Woburn, Framingham, Boston, Marshfield, Attleboro, and many others, to see for themselves if they could glean some information about this winter’s forecast.

    1. Outstanding Joshua….I can’t come up with anything to go along with this. I’m just sitting here doing my radio hobby thing and about to hit the sack. Wait a minute. Just listening to the Aircraft band (just about the FM band) and heard a comm between The Massachusetts Air National Guard and NOAA…something about a strange worm hole like phemomena over the Attleboro area in the direct path of Santa. They are referring to something called a “Charlie Hole or Zone”…then the comms went silent ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    1. Just not much out there. Some MORE cutters coming after a series of
      SUPPRESSED systems. We just can’t win.

    2. My lawn looks great still O.S. No freezer burn at all.

      That map is “wicked” lame. Lack of snow and cold breeds lack of cold and snow I guess.

      1. Wicked is right. Notice that the Charlie hole has enveloped all of
        Massachusetts. Geez Charlie is really at it. 😀

  114. Merry Christmas to everyone! It feels like a Carolina’s Christmas this year.
    I don’t put much stock in the GFS even though snowfall is nothing on the 6z run. Hopefully when the calendar turns the pattern will change and gives us better opportunity for snow. One could only hope.

    1. Oh for sure, it will get briefly colder, but then it will warm up with
      the next passing Fackucta Cutter. Then Repeat. 😥

  116. My biggest snowfall so far was 3 inches prior to Thanksgiving. Since then a dusting here and there. The dud winter of 11-12 the October Noreaster gave a foot of snow. I always say give me 2- 3 good Noreaster’s in the winter and I will be happy.

  118. Kids were finally sleeping in and then we lost power and now everyone is up. So it begins…maybe Santa brought me a whole house standby generator ha.

  119. I actually do not see snow any time soon on any map, forecast or any other way. I can’t even see when ocean effect type might appear. This could be a mid-January through February snow season. If I remember correctly isn’t the most likely period for snow, on average, around these parts during the 1st week of February.

    Current temperature in Newton=62.

  120. Full-fledged Spring day today. Driveway is full of nightcrawlers and all. Feels like we should be having an egg hunt later.

    2. Funny you mentioned night crawlers as I was going to post that they were all over my lawn (they aren’t but I was going to post it as a joke.)

      😆

  121. Merry Christmas everybody. Santa found his way here and all is good. Have a great day to all of you and relax and embrace all this wonderful day has to offer.

  122. Merry Christmas everyone! Looks like the rain should push out within the next couple hours. Hopefully we get some clearing to go along with the warmth. Have a great day!

    1. Yes, then it’ll really feel like Bethlehem where today’s weather is: 64 and sunny. We’ll be pretty darn close.

      Merry Christmas!

  125. By the way, if you’re looking for snow (OS, that probably means you 🙂 ) check out Tim Kelley’s Twitter. He’s calling for 10″+ of snow for Boston in the next two weeks or so. Not kidding. I think he’s nuts, but we’ll see how he does!

    2. I wonder where he thinks that’s coming from?

      I see a couple of suppressed systems followed by a couple of Cutters.
      I don’t see any snow out of that.

        1. Thanks. Looks like he thinks the systems that looked suppressed are going to come up far enough. Sure. 😀

  126. Very UNIMPRESSED with this system that just came through.
    Big Woo. Where was the wind????? Barely enough to fly a kite.
    Where were the down pours? Routine rain at best. 😀 What a Joke.

    Lot of hype for NOTHING

    1. Agreed. There was NO wind. The rain we got was mostly light.

      Still, we’re headed for one of the 10 wettest Decembers, if not 5. We’re up to 7 inches of rain and counting this month. There probably won’t be much more precipitation this December. But, my guess is we squeeze out another half inch or so between now and the end of the month.

  130. I think the rain is done here as I see it starting to clear. Had a heavy ban what was probably the last about an hour ago. As mentioned above wind was not as advertised but at times last night had a few good gusts. Nice job tk regarding the forecast I would say you nailed it as far as this are anyways. Merry Christmas tk.

  131. Hmmmm

    What do you make of the 12Z NAM

    Surface

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014122512&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014122512&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    500MB

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/10676238_10152869200129962_7161796365775110456_n.jpg?oh=214b097e11b998f8eecca76e0e736d96&oe=54FB02EC&__gda__=1430141697_9efb0cc79dfe8645738f8544645ab193

    200MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014122512&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    I’d say it’s either the NAM OR things have changed for the 12Z Runs because
    the above SCREAMS that it WILL get up here AND it is JUICING UP!

  132. Good morning!! Merry Christmas!! 1st week of Jan looks to be the 1st meaningful snow, still early but looks favorable, until then there’s nothing

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