Weather Goes On Holiday Vacation

146 Comments

10:18AM

After a cold front sweeps offshore this Christmas morning putting an end to the wet weather and introducing a drier, gusty westerly wind and some sunshine for Christmas Day, the only other system likely to pass through here during the next several days is a cold front sometime on Sunday. By early next week as the final days of 2014 are here, a string of weak storms will likely be kept well to the south by a sprawling high pressure area. Though it will turn colder for early next week, there is no major cold air in sight as the current weather pattern does not allow a major push of it to advance this way from northern and central Canada.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – CHRISTMAS: Rain ends Cape Cod by noon. Clouds give way to clearing west to east midday. Sunshine and passing clouds afternoon. Temperatures cooling through the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH, higher in some locations.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH, diminishing slowly.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 45.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

146 thoughts on “Weather Goes On Holiday Vacation”

  2. Merry Christmas again to everybody and thank you tk for taking the time to update. Great job on this past storm that you forecasted.

  3. Thank you TK. Trying not to shoot the messenger. 😀

    Miserable forecast there, miserable.

    GFS is cooking now. Let’s see if it changes it’s tune. 😀

    1. Old salty I know you probably don’t think so but I’m still thinking there is going to be a good snow total by the end of February as it’s just going to take time. Am I guesing at this point I sure am but just don’t see a repeat of a couple years ago. That year it took till MLK night to get the first snow and it was not that much. That was advertised to be a big storm but dry air gobbled it up. I remember clearly as that’s the weekend I bough my truck. I also remember we did have the cold air in place for that one as well.

      1. John,

        I’m not sure what to expect. I just know that things are NOT panning out as expected the advertised cold still is not here as it kept getting delayed and now when it gets here it won’t be so cold and it won’t last long.

        Just does NOT look good.

        I hope u are correct. We shall see. 😀

    1. I gotta admit Id take a day like this any day over a foot of snow and bitterly cold 🙂 though wouldn’t mind seeing some snow in January 🙂

    1. Merry Christmas to you Tom . Yes it is toasty out and I don’t mind it at all . Wind was not that bad down here you think Tom.

  12. Did Santa leave us with any Christmas weather cheer ?

    Our heat is completely off, most of the windows are open and its comfortable in the house.

    Oh well …………….

  14. Merry christmas everyone, and look, i see blue sky. Windy and clearing . temperatures dropping. Hope everyone has a good day with family

  17. Thanks, TK. As usual, you’re the man. While many were calling for get-out-the-ark monsoons and hold-your-hat wind gusts, you stayed the course and provided us with an accurate forecast. I also am believing you more than I am Tim Kelley. I like Tim, but he’s wrong to think that Boston’s going to get significant snowfall soon. No evidence for that.

    By the way, I can’t handle this cold front. It means business. I’m absolutely shivering. When’s the next flight to Havana?

    1. That one isn’t coming up. We have to wait for a southern stream trough buried deep in the Southwest States to get up here around January 3.

  20. Shhhhhh. Don’t tell anyone. The UKMET continues to quietly outperform all other models on the general pattern. I’m sure it won’t last forever, but apparently the UKMET likes strongly positive QBO and positive to neutral AO conditions.

    It was the first model to announce the lack of chill behind this cold front, and indicate mild temps for Friday and Saturday with high pressure to the south and a west to southwest air flow. It also liked the idea of a simple cold front Sunday and not a southern stream storm to go along with it. Though the GFS did have a decent idea on that early-on as well.

    Was just outside for a few. Quite windy, though not ferocious. And the fact the air is still pretty mild for 12-25 is not allowing the wind to have any bite.

  22. These photos were taken today. Care to guess where (and no I didn’t take it of course)

    http://www.bigbearmountainresorts.com/bearmtn/livedata/cam4big.jpg

    http://www.bigbearmountainresorts.com/bearmtn/livedata/cam4big.jpg

    http://www.bigbearmountainresorts.com/bearmtn/livedata/cam2big.jpg

    Ok the name is in the urls

    Big Bear Mountain in the San Bernadino National forest outside of LA. Located
    near Big Bear Lake on this map

    https://www.google.com/maps/@34.0945319,-117.2039748,9z?hl=en

  24. Quote of the day from a local TV met: “If you got a new jacket for Christmas, don’t put it away yet, because we still live in New England.”

    Gee thanks. I had no idea where I was.

  25. Boston failed to reach 60 today. So that leaves only 3 Christmas Days in recorded history in which Boston has recorded a high temperatures of 60 or higher. Which 3 years did that happen? 🙂

  26. I know it was warm in 1964 and I believe the other 2 were in the late 1800’s (one was either 1888 or 1889). Beyond 1964, I can’t pinpoint the other two.

    2. I can get on fb anytime just not interested my wife is on it. This puppy is driving us crazy at bet time ugh!!!!! I think we made a mistake.

        1. No we got a puppy and she came home Tuesday night. Kind of backfired on us as I did not think Molly would still be here so we kind of just found this wonderfull breeder and went there as a family and picked one out. Much better night for her last night as we put her in a smaller crate and went much better last night.

    1. Great minds. Hi JimmyJames. I hope you had a great Christmas!

      I don’t remember one as close to 64 as 1960 but definitely possible.

  30. Hi Vicki… It was a very nice Christmas at my mom’s house with the family. It would have been nice to have snow on the ground like it was for Thanksgiving with the snow falling lightly while we were having dinner just like on Thanksgiving. Oh well maybe next year.
    I know one of my bold weather predictions for 2014 was a White Christmas that did not happen. I can’t wait to read everyone bold weather predictions for 2015 next Thursday.

  32. well even if we do not get snow next week, at least it will be cold enough for the ski areas to make snow… including wachusett. I should have known since i got a seasons pass to wachusett and the fact that my brother is a senior in high school that this year might be crappy in the way of snow. Last time it looked this bad was my senior year…

  33. GFS snow map through January 11th.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014122606&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

    Snow next week? ha ha ha ha NOT A CHANCE

    After a weak system is suppressed, we get another Bleepity bleep bleep bleeping bleep of a >b>LAKES CUTTER

    After the cutter it gets cold, but I’m sure ONLY to set up yet another CUTTER.

    This is the season of the cutter!!!!!!!!!_@)_*!@(#*(!@#)(!*@#()*!(@*#*!()@#*!()*@#(!*(@#*(!*@#(*!()*@#!@*$&*^@&#$^&@^#$&*^@&*#^$&@&*#$^

    I’m cynical today. Absolutely JADED for sure.

    I’m ready for SPRING. Bring it on.

      1. ALL these years and I had no Idea those mountains were so close
        to LA. I knew there were mountains, but NOT this close. The only city in the country with a better view like that would be Seattle with Mt. Rainer in the background.

    1. Noticed that yesterday driving out to our daughter’s house. GREEN GRASS every where. Not sure I can remember the grass this green at Christmas time.

      Pretty Amazing.

      Anyone taking the polar plunge on New Year’s? This would be the year to do it. 😀

      1. I have 3 friends going golfing, they asked me to go, I denied but they said tbere going tommorrow, I may go then 🙂

        1. Maybe they meant the 0Z run of the Euro. I just checked that on the Wundermap and it IS a bit farther North
          than previous runs.

          We’ll see what the 12Z runs show. 😀

            1. No, other than perhaps a sprinkle or flurry on the South side of Block Island, Martha’s vineyeard or Nantucket. 😀

  37. Good morning!! Nice and sunny 34.1 degrees

    Snow may be delayed till 2nd week of January, we shall see 🙂
    Good day 🙂 and think snow

  38. from NWS out of Taunton for Monday
    MON…MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
    S OF NEW ENGLAND AND GENERALLY SUPPRESSED. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED
    FURTHER N…AS THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL RUNS…WHILE
    THE GFS REMAINS WELL SUPPRESSED. IN LIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND SPREAD…HAVE
    KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER SE MA AND SOUTHERN RI AND NUDGE LOW CHANCE
    POPS CLOSE TO NANTUCKET.

  40. Early indications from the 12Z NAM are that the Monday system WILL come up here.
    Waiting for additional panels. 😀

  42. 12Z NAM couldn’t pull it off as 500 MB flattens out after looking promising.
    Not surprising at all.

    Atmosphere is waiting on BIG cut off upper low in the SW to ignite something and we all know what that something is. It usually happens when we get an upper low in
    the SW. A FACUCKTA CUTTER, that’s what!

  44. Good morning! I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday yesterday and that Santa brought them everything on their list. The only thing I asked for is a decent snow storm so apparently I must have been very naughty this year. 🙂 Here’s hoping for some action in 2015! My stepdaughters can’t wait to see a “real” snowfall.

      1. Sunscreen, check ….

        Couple of beach chairs, check ….

        Now, if I could just find where I stored the beach cooler …….

  48. I’m pretty sure the wave on the front Sunday will end up further south than modeled. Also, the UKMET was FIRST to nail the mild air today/tomorrow. I mentioned this before but it’s worth repeating. It’ll be interesting to see what causes this model to perform less well.

  49. hey may be we should think positive, because maybe all this negativity is pushing the storms away as mother nature tries to make a point

  51. Some hints that the GFS “may” want to spawn a coastal with that
    1/3-1/4 system instead of just throwing a Cutter through the Lakes.
    Is this possible? Let’s wait and see. 😀

    2. The GFS had been pretty consistently taking that system south of New England with snow, until the 06z run.

      1. Don’t this so. I never bothered to look at last night’s 0Z run,
        which did INDEED take it South with Snow. The previous 18Z
        run was similar to today’s 12Z run. North of here with RAIN.

        I’m most interested to see what the rest of the 12Z model runs have to say.

        I guess you’re saying there is still a chance?

  57. It’s got an early spring feel to it, people on motorcycles listening to music along with people’s windows rolled down while driving listening to music 🙂

  58. The storm that brought us fog and mostly light rain has deepened and become a major blizzard in Northern Quebec and the Baffin Island regions. Winds gusting to close to hurricane force with snow. In recent weeks, several of the lakes cutters have blown up into major storms way up north and produced a lot of snow. The Kimmirut webcam shows more snow this year than last. Projected high Sunday is -26C (translation = cold in any language, including Inuit). Does us no good, but at least it is snowing and cold somewhere on this planet. And, yes, the Netherlands has issued winter storm warnings for tomorrow as the previously forecasted snowstorm will materialize over the central and southern parts of the country, with up to 8 inches expected in Limburg along with gale force winds at times.

    Boston and vicinity are just not lucky this year. Nor does it look like we will be anytime soon.

    1. Thank you.

      If the 1/3,1/4 does not pan out and It’s not looking all that great right now,
      I don’t know how much longer it might be. Mid January at best and who knows
      beyond that.

  59. Gil Simmons meteorologist here in CT said last week he felt mid January to mid March would be the best opportunites for snow.
    I am rooting for the almanac to be right for the next two months.

    1. Hopefully, we’ll see. Not liking what I’m seeing in early January. After a very brief cold spurt (seasonally cold), we could hit 55-60 again by January 3rd and 4th. Looks to turn colder after that but once more only for a few days.

  61. Tweet from Anthony Masiello a meteorologist and consultant
    The ECMWF weeklies are a blowtorch because they fail to see the -AO/-WPO state that will exist.

  64. We have two regimes that will battle it out a little bit heading into January:
    1) Mild and normal precip.
    2) Cold and dry.
    Best chance to get sneaky snow is going to be in a transition period.

    I do think eventually the colder/drier scenario wins out, but that is going to depend on a couple indices that have not behaved as forecast so far.

      1. That would be one possibility. It is hard to believe that the entire Winter would go by without a couple harsh periods with the giant cold reservoir, but it has happened before. Right now, the cold is in Europe & Asia. It may decide to hang out there most of the Winter. But some of it has come back across to set up at least some colder shots in the next few weeks.

  65. OS. I looked into stow acres golf and found this. Jason is sons friend. He is amazingly talented with course management and maintenance. I was sure they’d have temp greens but was wrong. Leave it to Jason to figure a way to keep the course pristine year round

    http://stowacresturf.com

  66. Much of the country is snow-less. Yes, a winter storm is traversing the nation. But, the November snow-cover percentage across the nation is a very distant memory.

    Thus far, this winter is misbehaving like 2011-2012. I know that it’s not entirely analogous. Yet, I continue to see strong similarities. The coldest it got that winter at night was 9F in Boston. And that was a very brief spell.

    I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by saying that this year the Charles in Boston does not freeze over. I dipped my finger in the water this morning. Its not even that cold! I also think that any real cold out of Canada will continue to impact the mountain states through the plains and parts of the Midwest, and that this pattern will persist for the foreseeable future.

      1. IF we could get the cold, that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. It could prevent storms from being suppressed, as long as
        the Ridge doesn’t over do it and really flex it’s muscles. 😀

  68. Today is the first day in recent memory that there is a sunup and sundown visible. In other words, a “mostly sunny” day! 🙂

    1. Around here, mainly N & W of Boston, there were standing wave stratocumulus for several hours, but they never quite made it to broken unless you were far to the NW in the hills. Drying finally took care of them this afternoon.

  69. I like the Lakes Cutter storm track because I love air mass changes. My favorite pattern in the Winter is the cold/dry pattern in which the storms are with the brief milder spells and the cold fronts are swift and strong with snow showers/squalls and then lots of cold/dry, then you have the renegade southern stream system every once in a while that gives you your genuine snow threats.

    1. You would. I’m afraid Cutters are the bane of my Winters. Can’t stand them.
      Hate them with passion.

      Oh well, nothing I can do about them. 😀

      1. I’ve always been fascinated by air mass changes. The sequence of clouds and weather and wind associated with warm and cold fronts.

        I wouldn’t like it if every Winter was cold and snowy. I would never want it to only be cold/snowy or mild/dry but never anything in between or varying. It’s the variety in weather which makes it interesting.

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