Final Forecast Of Fourteen

78 Comments

3:51PM

2014 ends tonight. As 2015 gets underway and people ring in the New Year hopefully in their preferred way, inside or outside, one thing is for sure, it will be chilly outside around southeastern New England. Certainly far from the coldest New Year’s Eve we’ve had around these parts, but given the recent mild pattern, it will feel quite cold for anybody out there, so if you are going to be one of them, bundle up!

As expected, high pressure took control on Monday and continues to dominate the weather making it dry and somewhat colder than we have seen recently. This will continue through early Saturday but will then give way to a rapidly-approaching low pressure area from the southwest late Saturday. The timing of this system appears as if it will be similar to the thinking on the previous blog update, late Saturday through early or the mid part of Sunday, and the track is still expected to be one that takes a primary low pressure area into the Great Lakes but develops a secondary near southeastern New England. Though it will be cold enough for snow in many areas at the outset of this system, warmer air coming in both at the surface and aloft will change it to rain. We will have to watch for a brief period of icing especially inland as some cold air may be trapped at the surface there Saturday night and Sunday morning. At this time, we are still too far away from the event to have any real confidence on details of this, so this possibility will be revisited and fine-tuned. Once we get to late Sunday, low pressure will be heading away and being replaced by windy and colder conditions which will last through Monday. By Tuesday, a small but possibly vigorous low pressure area may sweep through the region from the Great Lakes, bringing the chance of snow or mixed precipitation, however this fast-moving system would not have enough time to produce any large snow amounts. Look for more cold and windy weather behind that system as we’re finally able to tap some of the cold air in Canada and drag it down here. This does not look like the start of a long-lasting cold snap, however.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly cloudy with temperatures falling slowly through the 20s during the evening to near 20 many areas and upper 10s inland valleys by midnight. Overnight lows 15-20. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix arriving late day or night, changing to mix/rain overnight. Low 20. High 35.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with mix/rain morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with rain to snow showers afternoon. Low 30. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow or snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

Thank you all for reading and contributing during 2014 and previously as well! Looking forward to 2015! Have a safe and happy New Year!

From the WHW Crew (TK and a small supporting cast who prefer to remain nameless). πŸ™‚

78 thoughts on “Final Forecast Of Fourteen”

  2. TK, thank you as always and wondering what your Meteorological Crystal Ball (I know you have one!) says for a possible snowier timeframe. I am really thinking past January 15th, …. maybe last week of Jan thru mid-Feb? Maybe ??

  3. Thanks TK !

    Happy New Year to all !

    Hoping to stay awake through the end of the Bruins game, but I’ll never make it to midnight. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

  4. Saw Pete’s snow map for Sat / Sun before the rain. 3-5″ in central MA but he said 5″ was a stretch. 1-3″ in Boston and SE MA.

  5. A snow map with 2″ ranges 72-78 hours before the event even commenses> I feel bad for these guys, I really do. I generally think 2″ or less is a good bet for the areas where most people live in SNE, but right now all I would say is a light accumulation is possible for much of our area. Also think the ECMWF is hanging on to precip too long on Sunday. This thing will be moving pretty fast.

    No real changes to my previous thinking.

    Happy New Year, much thanks to TK for allowing my drivel to appear on his blog. I will check in sometime tomorrow. Time for a beer!

  6. Thanks TK.
    As I said on the previous blog its been great blogging with all of you in 2014. I look forward to another great year blogging with you all in 2015.
    I can’t wait to hear everyone’s bold weather predictions for 2015 tomorrow. I have been thinking about these and will give them tomorrow morning.

  7. Thank you TK. You are amazing. And that does not nearly say enough. Thank you for giving is this special home away from home. To every one of my WHW family members, it is a pleasure to “know” you and continue to get to know you. You are special indeed!! Happy new year!!!

    1. I love how they call it a “tornado”. Though it is certainly a vortex, it would be a dust devil, or in this case, a tent devil. πŸ˜‰

      These little swirly events are actually VERY common. They just don’t always land in a row of stick tents. Oops!

      1. Indeed. Pretty amazing video though no matter what.
        You can actually see the rotation with the debris flying around.

        I saw one of these on a rather larger pond (Farm Pond in Sherborn). We were fishing on a sunny day and this vortex blew across the pond about 100-200 feet from shore. It was about
        25 feet in diameter and really roughed up the surface of the water. You could see the rotation on the water. It was quite awesome.

        1. I’d love to see one that large that close up. There is great video of a “hay devil” from VT on one of my many video collections.

    2. Thanks OS. We had one at a horse snow years and years ago. They are scary if you have a horse attached to you…or any other time

  15. A New Years treat. Daughter made chocolate pudding with baileys, took tops off strawberries so they could be filled when dipped …….amazing.

  16. Thanks TK and Happy New Year to all! πŸ˜€

    Let us hope for some decent snow for the first months of 2015 and not have to wait until the 2015-2016 Winter Season! That is my New Year’s wish. πŸ™‚

    Also continued success on your 2014-2015 Winter Forecast TK! πŸ™‚

        1. Thank you. Great meal at the SKY in Norwood and
          then. Oh and then! Steve Sweeney was in rare form. Spectacularly Awesome performance! My stomach muscles are still soar from laughter. Amazing show!

  20. There’s got to be New Year’s weather resolutions for 2015 ……….

    1) less GFS …… Like, run it once per day, maybe even once every 3 days …..

    2) TV News Directors ….. Please stop putting NEWS reporters out in live shots to Cover weather ……

    Anchor : “Whats it like out there”

    Reporter : “It feels like its getting colder and the snow just turned to rain” ……….

    3) Snow maps on TV banned until 24 hrs before an event (could you imagine)

    Well, maybe there’s more …… Should we talk about the Weather Channel ??? πŸ™‚

  25. If I did this correctly ……

    Logan for 2014 had …..

    6 months of above average temps

    5 months below average temps ( 3 of these were Jan, Feb and Mar )

    1 month right at average ( April )

  26. Happy New Year Everyone!!! I look forward to another great year of blogging with all of you.
    Well its January 1st and its Bold Weather Predictions Time. Here are mine for 2015.
    Boston will have 2 double digit snowfalls before the winter is out
    Spring will be mild and I do think there will be some great stretches of weather during spring
    First 90 degree day will come in Mid May
    Summer will be warmer than normal with a lot more heat than last summer. I am thinking Boston will have 19 90 degree days.
    More thunderstorm days than last summer with 2 weak tornado touchdowns somewhere in SNE.
    Tropics will be quiet and no landfalls here in New England or on the East Coast.
    Fall will be mild
    First widespread snowfall for SNE will come in Mid December although I think parts of SNE will see there first snowfall in late November prior to Thanksgiving.
    White Christmas for the interior
    TK and others I can’t wait to hear your bold weather predictions for 2015 and will see on December 31st if any of our predictions happened!!!

  31. Don’t buy it. First off gives coastal parts of CT and RI a small accumulation of snow. My part of CT which is in the interior it is showing no accumulation. Convective Feedback???

      1. AND the Euro shows a couple of inches. So we shall see.
        I’m not expecting much that’s for sure. 0 or 2 inches, not much
        difference as far as I’m concerned. Might just as well be a total
        rain event. πŸ˜€

  32. Its weird to me southeastern parts of CT showing some snowfall yet where I am no snowfall. The coastal areas to me should quickly go to rain with no snowfall accumulation with this setup. Interior you could squeeze out an inch maybe two.

    1. Oh I agree totally with that.

      I don’t see much of anything until the Northern Berkshires into VT, NH and ME.
      The cold gets eroded very quickly down here. That coastal doesn’t even form
      until most of moisture is North of us.

  34. This is mostly a rainorama. Got to watch some of those valley locations where the cold air could be stubborn and a mixorama could last there longer before going to rain.

  37. JJ to your point about icing in the interior

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 13m13 minutes ago
    [Tech post 2] Met mos has light NE winds at 7 am Sunday across interior MA. Low level cold air trapped, extended period of fzra/sleet poss.

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 20m20 minutes ago
    [Tech] Models likely too quick to scour out shallow cold air Sat night/early Sun am across interior MA. Extended period of fzra/sleet poss.

  38. Don’t think its major icing but it doesn’t take much to make things slippery.
    We had here in interior CT last month freezing drizzle that caused very slippery conditions. Some people were saying it was one of the worst commutes they had in quite a while.

  39. Good morning, happy new year!! Just got off the phone, and company spring meetings start Feb 2nd, ugh!! I just got off phone and I’m not ready to think about it yet, I still got 4 weeks vacation, our official start date is March 2nd and will adjust from there like we have done every year, enjoy the new year πŸ™‚

  40. Ch 4 and 5 have their sat/sun maps out. I haven’t seen 7s although someone said they have it up. All seem about the same with precip holding off until after 8:00ish. I hope so as we have a 6th bday party at daughters house…..also for Tom and others out and about, that would be good. Icing is never a good thing.

    Both stations have a “few” inches before turnover. I actually don’t mind few rather than specifics this far out. It struck me as odd that both opted for that wording at the same time.

        1. litΒ·erΒ·al
          ˈlidΙ™rΙ™l,ˈlitrΙ™l/
          adjective
          1.
          taking words in their usual or most basic sense without metaphor or allegory.
          “dreadful in its literal sense, full of dread”
          free from exaggeration or distortion.
          “you shouldn’t take this as a literal record of events”
          synonyms: strict, factual, plain, simple, exact, straightforward; More
          informal
          absolute (used to emphasize that a strong expression is deliberately chosen to convey one’s feelings).
          “fifteen years of literal hell”
          2.
          (of a translation) representing the exact words of the original text.

  44. Good evening all and again Happy New Year to everybody!

    I have updated the blog and its highlights include:
    -Clouds keep temps from getting too low tonight.
    -Sun returns Friday, not as cold as the last 2 days.
    -Weekend storm will bring up to 4 inches of snow to parts of the region, and a period of freezing rain for parts of the interior.
    -Windy/cold Monday but only a preview of what comes Thursday, which may be a frigid day. In between, a light to moderate snow event is POSSIBLE. Don’t read too much into the “moderate” at this point. I have just seen systems like this drop more snow than one would expect, and it’s just based on that history that I include that term this far in advance. Long way to go on that one.

    See you on the new blog!

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