11:30PM
Some of the cold and dry weather predicted long ago for January will be with us this coming week as the pattern was finally able to shift and allow some Arctic air to make the journey from Siberia over the North Pole and through Canada, entering the northeastern US in a couple of shots during this week. A series of disturbances will deliver the cold air, the first being a trough Monday afternoon, then a clipper low pressure system later Tuesday, another trough on Wednesday, and a cold front on Friday. The strongest shot of cold air will be over southeastern New England on Thursday. Some moderation will arrive by later in the weekend.
Before all this gets underway we get rid of the weekend storm overnight as a cold front sweeps through southeaster New England putting an end to the rain and brief push of mild air.
OVERNIGHT: Rain showers end west to east followed by clearing and emergence of a bright full moon. Temperatures cooling through the 40s. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers and a possible heavier snow squall midday through mid afternoon. Temperatures falling through the 30s. Wind W 15-30 MPH gusting as high as 40 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 10s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill falling below 10.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Periods of light snow afternoon and evening with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches possible. Highs in the 20s. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Isolated snow squalls. Low 10. High 20.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 15.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Isolated snow squalls. Low 10. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
First!
WW – did you see my response re epping on other blog?
Wind Advisories all day today.
Hearing / reading different things about Thursday’s temps. One TV met raised the high to 18 degrees, but now has the low at -2. I need one of the met types on this blog to give me their wind chill forecast for Thursday. I actually have places to go on that day.
I don’t think they wind chills will go as low as advertised. And there is very little difference anyway between lows slightly below zero and slightly above zero, as well as high temps within a few degrees of 15, especially with wind speeds that will vary from 10 to 20 MPH most likely, along with higher gusts around 30 MPH, which will most likely be the case on Thursday.
-20 wind chills may occur but will not be sustained, it will be more like 0 to -10. Wind chill temps are almost always forecast to be lower than they end up.
Also, if the low is -2, or +2, it would probably have taken place before you’re in the midst of your errands unless they are scheduled for dawn. ๐
Warmth didn’t last long ๐
Enough to get me to my high temp forecast for just about everywhere. That’s all I needed. ๐
Guess I wasted my time shoveling. When I went to bed there was plenty of snow especially in the yard. Woke up and snow is gone everywhere.
Our road, which was never plowed, has frozen ruts on both sides. Very nasty. Otherwise, the driveway is totally clear and dry.
Wind chills should drop near -20 below right through Boston Thursday morning.
Yawn…
Not impressed with ANY weather features at the moment. Even this big bad COLD coming our way, WON’T be as advertised. Even if it is, big deal, it happens every Winter. Nothing to be alarmed about. AND it will be very short lived and then back to regular cold.
Re: Tomorrow/tomorrow night
Where oh where is the precip coming from?
Both the NAM and the GFS gives us ZILCH. CMC ditto and the EURO is dry as a bone.
I hope something happens, but it doesn’t look like much of anything.
Next shots of snow on or about 1/12,1/13 and again about 1/20 or so.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
The later it gets into January, the tougher it will be to make even an average snowfall year. NOT looking good.
Ch7 does not realy talk about accumulating snow for tomorrow, that’s odd. JR seems to think Thursday will be the coldest day of the winter as again I think that’s odd as winter just start and Thursday will only be January 8th.
According to the models maybe not with snow but cold?
I didn’t have the impression he meant winter going forward but did mean winter so far.
Thursday itself will likely be the coldest day of the entire winter is exactly what he said in his blog. I like JR but that was odd to make such a bold call for early part of January . Temp sure is dropping and the wind is not helping .
John,
He is probably correct.
And he did qualify that with “likely” which leaves the door open just in case a colder air mass does move in later.
I see no problem with that whatsoever. ๐
Bold is my opinion but that’s just mine.
Bold? hardly.
ahhh – you did not specify in his blog. I listened to him on air. And I agree 100% with OS – his terms were general and descriptive but if you read correctly not definitive but an opinion which he also stated elsewhere in the blog.
Does it realy matter ?
Thank you TK!!
Wind howling here. Woke up to it and it sounded nice. Has been into high 20s a few times.
NWS WPC โ@NWSWPC 4m4 minutes ago
Snow probability for 1″ on Tuesday evening. #TisTheSeason #Snow
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6l3RHtCYAE-cYJ.png
Hmmm
If I read this correctly, that is a whopping 10% chance of 1 inch of snow for Tomorrow
night. He he he he he
Translation: ZILCH
A few snow showers are surviving the trip ALL the way from Lake Erie/Lake Ontario. ๐
http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ma/boston/box/?region=bml
Matt Noyes โ@MattNoyesNECN 10m10 minutes ago
A shower in Portsmouth NH now. Noteworthy because it began…over Lake Ontario. Lake-effect reaches the coast:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6l65b-CMAAOx_k.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6l6bVkCEAAt838.png
12Z Snow Map for tomorrow Night. The Charlie HOLE has enveloped ALL of SNE!!!!
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084
dammit charlie ๐
So apparently Flacco is the best QB in football..HA. Ravens trash talk begins…no surprise…funny write up I found on it.
“And so it begins. The Ravens are coming to town Saturday which means only 1 thing. Absolutely ridiculous statements from the Baltimore camp. Things like โWe didn’t see the video of Ray Rice knocking out his wife.โ โRay Lewis didn’t murder anybodyโ. โTerrell Suggs didn’t pour bleach on his pregnant wife, blah, blah blah And now maybe the most ludicrous statement of them all. Joe Flacco is the best QB in football. Laugh out loud funny.Itโs not even that I think Flacco sucks. I actually think heโs a serviceable QB. His post season record speaks for itself. But letโs not pretend the regular season doesn’t count. In the Ravens six losses this year he threw 7 TDโs and 8 INTโs. Not good. And letโs not forget the Ravens didn’t control their own playoff destiny going into the last weekend of the season. If the Chargers didn’t puke on their own shoes โthe best QB in footballโ is on the sidelines for the 2nd straight year during the playoffs. Oh and speaking of last year he threw 19 TDโs and 22 INTโs. 22 INTโs tied him for 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile Tom Brady hasn’t thrown that many INTโs in the last 2 seasons combined. So yeah letโs slow down a little bit on best QB in football. “
What you say is all true, BUT given the right circumstances, he IS good enough to beat the Pats. NOT saying he will, just that in the post-season this guy ain’t bad is all. IF the Pats play their game, they should Win fairly easily. I just
hope the Pat’s don’t let the Ravens stay in the game.
Oh I know and I agree with what you said the other day about you never know which Pats team will show up. The Ravens CAN beat the Pats and have beat them 2 out of 3 in the postseason in NE. However, this year I don’t think it will and I am predicting a Pats blowout by 20 or more points.
I agree weather wiz. But I will say this league is about playoffs and flacco is darn good in the playoffs. He raises his game.
I think the Patriots win but man, this is a nightmare matchup for them. Suggs alone shaves 10 points off the pats scoring. He’s totally in Brady’s head (and face for that matter)
If the pats aren’t physical on both sides of the ball right from the start, they lose.
Very light snows tomorrow and Friday. Bigger story the coldest air of the winter so far mid to late week.
Hopefully Lambeau won’t be the frozen tundra on Sunday with Cowboys playing up there with a rematch of the ice bowl from 1967 in the playoffs.
The pats can win the game if they show up for it. I don’t care what anybody says this is going to be a dog fight of a game and take that to the bank. Blitz happy Baltimore is coning to town and Brady is bit that great when pressured , his OLINE better be ready. If pats play a full 4 quarters and bring there A game I think they can beat anybody as long as they do the above and with no injuries.
Draws and screens will be key.
Jonas gray/ Blount and vereen will be keys to this game.
The offensive line must protect Brady as well. It has been MIA lately. That is my main concern.
They wont do that, it hasnt been part of their game plan at all this year and for some reason mcdaniels refuses to do this. I agree they need to do it, but they wont
And I’m worried because of that.
I just saw hazardous outlook posted for tomorrow on NOAA
Here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS
Snow Showers/Squalls possible today and Wednesday.
Light snow tomorrow, 1-2 inches possible. (I don’t know where they
get this?)
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=hazardous%20weather%20outlook
12Z GFS for Tomorrow Night. CHARLIE HOLE STILL EVIDENT
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060
They have 40% chance of snow under 1/2 inch possible
Pats will win the game Saturday but it will be closer than a lot of people think.
I agree JJ .
My philosophy is this when it comes to playoffs any team who makes in has a chance to win the championship.
Know I know people are going to say this isn’t the Ravens of old. True fair point. But lets not forget Flacco is a Super Bowl winning QB and there are players on the team today that were on that team that made that run to the championship and beat Denver and New England on the road. This team will not be afraid to go into New England.
True. One HUGE difference. Pats now have a DEFENSE, which was lacking
last time. AND they have GRONK MAN, the human touch down machine!
SO, they “should” get the job done. Not sure it’s a blow out, but it SHOULD
be a WIN.
I’m now addicted to 98.5. They pointed out the stats do not justify panic. However, one comment was the only team that can lose it for the pats is themselves.
There sure is a lot if discussion re the bad call. It wasn’t the only one but darned if I can remember the other game. Fixed? Some part if me has always wondered. Odd? Unquestionable.
Remember too that we have a team we didn’t. And we have Brady. It will hopefully be an exciting game no matter the outcome although I’d sure be happy with a win ๐
98.5 is superior to Weei, imho. But I am extremely biased
since I can’t stand some of the NEANDERTHAL personalities
on WEEI. (Read that Callahan, Dennis and Minihane)
I did not see that call last night. But the discussion towards that are people are sick of the refs this year as they SUCK. Many games this year in all games not pats the refs have made very bad choices and it had been more than obvious . As far as 98.5 goes they were named best sports show in 2014.
Pats will win but will not be a blowout. Close game coming down to the wire.
As long as they win I don’t care if it’s by 1 point. I am banking on a blowout..they are due. A win is a win is a win.
Let me just say about the call yesterday. I will be one of the few Cowboys fans to say we got a gift yesterday with the flag being picked up. It was pass interference. Every team in this league gets a gift call at some point. There was no guarantee the Lions would have scored a touchdown on that drive if the call stood. If they scored a field goal Cowboys would still have won the game by a point with that go ahead touchdown drive.
I don’t believe this was fixed so the league would get a matchup they want in the playoffs with a rematch of the ice bowl. There are people out there who think sports are fixed.
Again I did not see the call not do I care cause it wasn’t my team. I doubt it was fixed lol . Just like I said new refs or whatever many, many games this year have had controversial calls made by the refs and usually real bad calls that they called wrong.
I am one of them. ๐
The “mob” is more prevalent than people think or know. It is NOT dead,
Just more sophisticated than in the past.
So are games fixed? Who knows for sure. I have ALWAYS suspected that certain games at certain times are fixed. There is just OH SO MUCH $$$$$
riding on these games. It’s only logical that human Greed gets involved somewhere along the line.
Given that, the Call in the Cowboys game is NOT the way a game would be fixed, imo. That would have been way too obvious for a “fix”.
I’m JADED big time. I know. But I am still entitled to that opinion.
I agree sometimes. I think the NFL wants another Brady-Manning showdown, so the Pats will beat the Ravens.
Now one is mentioning the fact that Detroit was beating us by 13 points with 3:00 left in third period. They had us. If they took care of business we wouldn’t be talking about this call.
JJ. I agree with you and it was not the only bad call in the game. It does stress that the refs are not up to the quality they should be for playoff games. I’m
Not so sure it is the call but think perhaps the oddness of it. A flag is thrown correctly and then just scooped up. Something seems very very wrong with that. No reflection on the cowboys just the ref
Watching the game yesterday I knew what the call was for. It was obvious. When Joe Buck who was doing play by
play said they picked up the flag I was shocked and happy at the same time. The refree gave no explianation as to why
this flag was picked up. Later found out the Head Linesman had a better view of the play than the back judge who
threw the flag.
IDK, JJ, about the better view. I watched the replay. Either way, it was a call and arguing with the ref is something I don’t believe in. If it were challengeable (is that a word), then challenge. Otherwise, don’t blame the team for the mistake of the ref. Fix the ref problem…..and then again, they are human and it is a human game.
For once i want to see some response from the Pats players to the Raven’s trash talk. I know its not the “Patriot way” to respond and let the outcome of the game do the talking, but the Pats need to show some fight before this game, they need to show some snarl, something they havent had since 2004. They have been far too passive and business-like in dealing with these situations. This is still a game and is supposed to be entertainment. Fight back and dont be that kid that gets pushed down on the playground and doesnt fight back and just runs to the teacher.
If they say anything Bill would probably bench them for real . I think they know to keep there mouths shut. I actually agree with you they should respond back.
Oh i agree, Bill would bench them for sure. But if it’s Brady?? lol I just want Brady to come out and be like, you’re going down dirty birds!! ๐
We don’t run to the teacher. We run to the goal line. ๐
LOL, thats a good one! I hope so ๐
I don’t want to see it. Our team is above that and feel they should be benched. I have no respect for teams that allow trash talk. We are sooooo much better than that
There’s a such thing as healthy trash talk though and i think it’s part of the game. Its supposed to be entertainment.
Heavy snow squalls going through Manchester, NH.
Those snow squalls COULD put down a quick coating to an inch. There like thunderstorms in the summer time not everyone towns see one but those that do will know it.
NWS Boston โ@NWSBoston 6m6 minutes ago
Scattered snow squalls may reduce visibilities to around 1 mile across northern Essex County, MA through 1 PM. Drivers — be alert!
I’m wondering if it will make it to Boston.
highly doubt it.
It put down a coating…
Just hope Josh has it in him because I think he is gone when season is over. I heard Atlanta wants him realy bad!!!!!
they also want rex ryan as well
Great wind today. Lights flickered and I hoped but nothing. sniff.
30.6 with an on the moment 23 wind chill.
I watched the humarock station for a bit on Wunderground and it seems the wind is sustained in the high 20s. Oh to be there !!
It is quite blustery down here on the coast of Plymouth. My poor cat went outside and immediately turned around and ran back in the house. ๐
๐
Looking ahead after shifting through the 12Z runs, the only thing I can see of any
interest at all is the following from the CMC:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015010512&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=232
Euro has the feature, but NOT as close to the coast nor as strong
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015010512&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=232
GFS Parallel also has this feature
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015010512&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=232
Regular GFS has NO Clue about this at all, which means it’s probably correct. ๐ ๐
So at the very least, something to watch. At 10 days out, we all know the drill, but interesting that something is there at all.
And I believe that would take us to around MLK weekend , somthing to watch well than .
Yes indeed John, Something you have been saying for awhile now. Perhaps you will be correct. We shall see.
Given our luck the following WILL happen, pick one:
1. Storm Goes OTS
2. Storm NEVER materializes as it was a phantom storm
3. Storm goes Inside and it RAINS here despite how COLD it will have been.
๐ฟ ๐ ๐ ๐
Every year it seems that way I’ve been saying that to tk. Every year,
be positive!
I am! I’m positive there will NOT be a snowstorm on or near that date. ๐
Mesoscale discussion – too bad this CAN’T translate here tomorrow. Not gonna happen.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0027.html
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_loop.php
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2015010509&id=SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_
CRYING SHAME this loses all of it’s Dynamics as it heads Eastward. ๐ฅ
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015010509/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f021.gif
This is what is left over for us:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015010509/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f042.gif
Wish you could see a couple more frames out as the blob over the great lakes looks interesting in frame 30…..
On the GFS, it becomes this. Another nuisance to nothing
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015010512&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=0
Before that as meteorologist Gil Simmons here in CT said two whimpy snow events tomorrow and Friday.
Can’t wait to see how Kyla Grogan does tonight as she makes her debut on WTNH the abc station in CT tonight. She is from CT and was an on camera meteorologist at The Weather Channel. She can’t be any worse than Erika Martin who she is replacing.
Oldsalty what are they saying for boston tomorrow . Trying to decide if I’ll need my truck here or not if I need to stay.
1-2 with the 2 maybe more towards the cape
A few flurries, perhaps a snow shower or 2. 1/2 inch or LESS.
If there is any steady snow it will be so light it would be like it wasn’t snowing.
Just my thoughts fwiw. ๐
Latest SREF
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2015010515/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f033.gif
Eric Fisher โ@ericfisher 7m7 minutes ago
@danmichaudNY Going to be brutal mid-week…plus maybe some WINDEX squalls with FROPA?
For more information on WINDEX see the following Link: Interesting to say the least.
TK your thoughts?
http://www.toddgross.com/todd_gross_new_england_we/2007/02/snow_squalls_a_.html
There is a pseudo WINDEX event going on right now, but a more impressive one is POSSIBLE on Wednesday. Another one may follow on Friday.
The Tuesday system, the actual clipper, looks like it will do the “dynamic jump” and basically skip most of this area as it transfers its energy offshore. Cape Cod and the Berkshires are the 2 most likely spots in SNE to get over 1/2 inch of snow. Many areas may end up with a trace, or even nothing. And before anybody says “but I thought we were going to get a few inches?” … That was NEVER a lock. We know how to deal with clippers. Most of the time they are usually very poor producers. SOMETIMES they deliver significant snow.
Also, regarding the met. mentioned earlier saying that Thursday could be the coldest day of the Winter? Sure, it could be. But is it smart to say it? NO WAY. ABSOLUTELY NOT RIGHT. Why? Because people will take it as gospel and when we have a colder outbreak sometime later in the Winter they will say “but they said it wasn’t gonna get this cold again…. blah blah blah, whine whine whine” … Another combination of poor choice of information and idiocy in understanding it. Sadly, this is a daily occurrence in the relationship between media and public.
Lastly, regarding the link from Todd Gross’s web page. Dr. Frank Colby was one of my college professors. ๐
re: Met who posted “Likely Coldest Day of the Winter”.
Personally, I have ZERO problems with that, but I understand.
The general Public will do EXACTLY as you say. ๐ ๐
Well said regarding what JR said tk. I very much like him as I said just how could a met say that not even a month into winter as I found it quite odd. But again I like his style.
He’s a very nice guy. We have chatted online.
If those snow squalls hit during the evening commute Wednesday bad timing. Just like thunderstorms in the summer not every town sees one but those that do a quick coating to inch is certainly possible.
I remember one during the 60’s.
Honestly, it dumped 2-4 inches across the area in 1-2 hours time. ๐
It was AWESOME. I went skiing just after it was done.
They can really produce IF the dynamics are there.
TK: Thanks again for your forecasts. It appears you’re on the money predicting a dry, but relatively cold January. I’m okay with it as at least it’ll feel like winter. It will also shred my prediction of a 2011-2012 simile to bits. That winter produced almost zero cold, along with very little snow. I saw some similarities through December, but this upcoming stretch is not anything like January 2012.
Eric Fisher โ@ericfisher 11m11 minutes ago
Latest projection for Wednesday night’s lows. None of these would be close to records, but cold enough. #wbz
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6nYp8zCYAAwyWM.png
Let’s have a fun contest for overnight lows at the 4 major climo sites in our region for Wednesday night. Boston, Worcester, Hartford and Providence. Vicki can you keep track ๐ :).
Ok here’s My guess:
Logan +1 (Logan just sticks too far out into the Water)
Worcester -8 (elevation adds to cold)
Hartford -4
Providence 0 (Providence too far South and farther away from core of COLD)
Let’s see how nutso these numbers are.
Thanks for Posting Hadi. Should be fun IF enough participate. ๐
Will copy to my iPad notes. Computer already shut down. Will do my best to keep up. Son visiting tonight
INDEED!
Eric Fisher โ@ericfisher 30m30 minutes ago
We’ll actually be lucky with this cold air outbreak. If there was an semblance of a snow-pack, would be much colder.
FWIW,
Both the 18Z NAM and 18Z GFS now give the immediate Boston area .1 to 1 inch
of Snow. You pick which end of that range it will be. ๐
In forecast terms, that’s a coating to an inch. ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
NWS Boston โ@NWSBoston 31s31 seconds ago
Chance flurries or touch of light snow Tue. Chance of snow showers Wed. But big story: extreme cold Wed night.
Logan : 2F
Worcester : -4F
Hartford : -1F
Providence : 1F.
I cant wait for this, this is what the current cold and wind feel like to me. ๐
My guess is Boston -1, Worcester -7, PVD +1 and Hartford at -4.
I’ll go Boston +3, Worcester -3, PVD +4, Hartford 0.
Mt. Washington current windchill at -60. Brrrrrr.
Here is my guess:
Boston 0
Worcester. -4
Providence 1
Hartford. -2
Eric F posted projected windchills for Wed night into Thursdsy morning and has Boston -32. Brrrrrrrrrr
NWS’s windchill forecast is about 10 degrees less cold than what Ch 4 posted.
Harvey thinking not much if anything for boston tomorrow, maybe 1/2 inch to inch on the cape. Heavier squall possible Wednesday .
Boston 5
Worcester. -2
Providence 6
Hartford. -1
I have tom, OS, TK, Hadi, Sue and me so far
Thank you Vickie. It will be interesting to see how we all do.
Ryan Maue โ@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
ECMWF global model improved its 5-day skill scores between 2013 and 2014 … GFS did not.
Therefore, skill gap between models increased.
At least once they ironed out the initial issues with ECMWF it seemed to get somewhat better. The skill scores show this. And the new GFS is already proving to be worse than what was being run.
But like JMA points out, it’s more than just picking one model and running with it. It’s an ever-evolving process tracking model performance and using experience to come up with a best guess, not just model forecasts.
This is a bit of a specious argument. The ECMWF was down right awful August 2013-December 2013 after its upgrade. So its verifcation socres for a 4 month period were some of its lowest, easy to improve on a 1 year basis with the control data set from the prior year was skewed anomalously low.
FYI- I am hearing GFS upgrade planned for 12z January 7th has now been delayed until 12z January 15th. We can only hope saner heads prevail and infinitely delay this train wreck.
City of Hartford not the official recording area for inland CT. It is Bradley International airport which is in Windsor Locks north of Hartford. I don’t if anyone wants to change their prediction for Hartford based on that info.
Bradley International Airport -2
Worcester – 5
Providence 0
Boston 1
I would not be surprised if there are school delays somewhere in SNE Thursday morning
Thanks JJ. My mind always goes to Bradley. My old stomping grounds were Suffield. Is it safe to assume everyone meant Bradley ?
I wasn’t sure so that is why I made the comment that Hartford is not where are records are kept for inland CT. It is
Bradley International Airport at Windsor Locks, CT. You get away from those urban centers the temperature could
be lower.
It was a very good point. I would not have known if I were not familiar with the area. Thanks JJ
It is the same thing with the shoreline of CT where a lot of people thinking the records are kept in
Bridgeport. They are kept at Sikorsky in Stratford.
That I didn’t know at all. Thanks again!
I’ll go with
Boston 3
Worcester -4
Providence 4
Hartford 2
To: TK
In response to a question I asked, you suggested that wind chill temps are never as low as advertised. Why is that? Hype?
Boston 2
Hartford 0
Worcester -3
Providence 60 (Charlie will be there). Just kidding 3
๐ pool is opening in a week ๐ ๐
๐
๐ lol
I put all guesses on contest page in one post. Fun idea, Hadi
Hope I didn’t miss anyone. If so, maybe you could put your guess on contest page too
Thanks, Vicki ๐
Thanks Vicki!!
Whoa! Lets all chill out on the cold. It is not that extreme. Chicopee Falls CEF (Springfield, MA) had 18 days from December 2013-March 2014 with days with below zero morning lows including a -17 on January 4th and a -10 on March 3rd. Bedford MA had 12 days in that same time period with morning lows below zero including a -12 on January 4th. It is cold for sure, but nothing beyond typical coldest days that happen during many winters. There is no reason to delay schools or close them unless pipes freeze and schools are not on break so freezing should not be an issue.
Here is a link to GFS MOS output for two SNE cold spots. CEF and ORE. Check out the projected dew points and that could give you an idea of the max potential lows if everything fell just perfect. Won’t get quite that cold but somewhere between the low temp projection and the dew point is a good bet!
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KCEF&sta=KORE
I’ve skied in colder temps. ….pretty much yearly as I recall…so definitely not that cold. Just a fun guess ๐
Oh I agree. I love temps swings more than any kind of weather. Out in the lowest parts of the CT River Valley of MA,near my home, I have experienced mornings of -23! I love it!! Favorite weather are the large temps swings of cold mornings and comparatively mild day time highs.
Of course I won’t like this cold Wednesday and Thursday when I am walking in Manhattan.
I remember not being a huge fan of cold toes in ski boots but loved the sound of the dry snow squeaking as I walked. Manhatten?
Your comment made me think about my favorite weather. That is hard. Maybe TK could ask that when we have a lull….not season but weather. Thanks ๐
A couple of days of meetings in lower Manhattan and midtown.
Brrrrr
Excellent. Could not agree more.
Again below average, but perfectly normal for a Winter.
It’s rare that KBOS flirts with zero or below.
3 days last January with a low of 2 which is lower than the current NAM low of 3 and GFS low of 4.
No one loves temperature swings more than me but this is just not that unusual.
But if we drop below zero it would be the third time since 2005. That is unusal especially for where most people live.
Ha! Throwing my favorite forecast phrase back at me!
๐
I agree below zero at the airport does not happen too often but not too far away including populous suburbs of Metro Boston it does occur each winter and currently modeled temps at the airport are for single digits which does indeed happen every winter.
No, BUT it does happen frequent enough NOT to be called unusual IMHO.
Hope no offense, it was a good opportunity for some fun.
God no! I love it!!
to follow up on that pool talk, my pool is an ice rink as there has been alot of water put onto the cover ๐
CMC is the only model “trying” to sniff out a storm:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015010600&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=242
This is 12Z on the 14th.
Since this feature does not appear on other models at the moment, I will presume
for now that this is a typical “Phantom” storm.
Although the Euro has a system close to this time frame, just that it is an OTS jobbie.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015010600&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=242
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015010600&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=242
SO perhaps there IS something to this feature. Time will tell. ๐
Regarding today? We get CHARLIE HOLED!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010606&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010606&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048
Caught in the middle as TK said between Primary and coastal redevelopment.
No Where Land. Palookaville.
Will check latest high resolution to see if anything has changed. Sure.
HRRR snowmap as of 7PM tonight. LAUGHABLE!!!
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015010609/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f15.png
Lowest temperature of the season so far:
15.3 earlier. Now 16.2
Too bad we didn’t have a NorthEast Wind. ๐
btw, models not really showing possible Windex event for tomorrow, Although
this 4KM NAM “may” be picking up on it:
12Z tomorrow
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=ref&runtime=2015010606&fh=30&xpos=0&ypos=142
15Z tomorrow
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=ref&runtime=2015010606&fh=33&xpos=0&ypos=142
I thought that the possible event would be in the Afternoon??????
I dunno. Will keep watching.
NOPE, coming through in the morning.
From NWS:
…IN ADDITION…STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WOULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW…REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CREATING HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. IT IS INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST WHERE THESE WILL OCCUR…
Impressive radar. Take cover, head for the hills. WARNING WARNING.
Danger Will Robinson. ๐ ๐
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php
Looks like it’s all south…I know Pete said cape and islands would get the snow.
Yup, today is putrid. I’ll bet we can see the sun often
during the day. ๐
Time to make the donuts. Later.
looks like cold and dry for two weeks then back to mild.
Blog updated!