Siberian Express

188 Comments

7:27AM

COMMENTARY/DISCUSSION…
“The coldest air in years is coming!” etc etc. … Overstated by the media, as usual. Yes, it’s going to get very cold. The air came from Siberia, straight over the North Pole, across Canada, and will plunge into the Northeast at midweek. But it is far from the coldest air in years. For some areas, perhaps the coldest temperatures since 2011 will be realized. But it’s not like 2011 was all that long ago. And last Winter was a cold one, much more sustained cold than we have seen so far in this fairly young Winter. I’m just saying, we really need to look beyond the sensationalist headlines that dominate weather-related news stories. After all, shouldn’t be we worried about that 2000 mile-wide swath of snow that’s coming across the Midwest? Oh wait, that’s just a fancy description for a weak clipper low pressure system. Never mind! ………. In reality, that clipper will be making a run at southern New England today and tonight but transfer most of its energy to a developing offshore low, and the already weak system will only deliver patchy light snow at best with no significant accumulation. An arctic cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday and may set off some snow showers and heavier snow squalls. We’ll have to watch for briefly very low visibility and slippery roads where any heavier squalls occur. This front will introduce a pure Arctic air mass which will last through Thursday, ease up slightly Friday, which may see a few more snow showers and squalls as a reinforcing arctic front arrives, keeping it quite cold through Saturday (though not as cold as Thursday). A little moderation will take place by Sunday and Monday. We may have to watch for the approach of a front and/or low pressure system by Monday, but I’m not sure how the set-up will be just yet.

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow possible midday and afternoon with a dusting to a coating some areas. Highs in the 20s. Wind W to SW under 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light snow possibly early, and a slight chance of brief moderate snow parts of Cape Cod with up to 1 inch. Lows in the 10s. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers and a chance of heavier snow squalls midday-afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 18.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers/squalls. Low 10. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 30.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

188 thoughts on “Siberian Express”

  1. Thanks! Already hearing news media talking about the dreaded polar vortex like it is a pandemic disease.

  3. Thank you TK.

    Yup, this will be the coldest weather EVER experienced around here. NOT!!! 😆

    Sure it WILL be COLD, unusually cold? NOT in my opinion.

    What is the ice condition around the North Pole? If this air is truly coming
    straight out of Siberia, it “should” be COLDER. I wonder IF it gets modified
    a wee bit traversing the polar region??????? OR is there still any open water
    on Hudson Bay that modifies it a bit? Just a thought.

    Actually, our coldest weather comes when it builds in the Northern Part of Eastern
    Canada and usually only happens when Hudson Bay is totally ice covered. Record low for Logan comes in February due to this.

  4. One observation this morning. The overcast “appears” to be MUCH thicker than
    I ever expected. I wonder IF this translates to a bit more snow??????

  6. Thank you, TK.

    A Very Happy Little Christmas to all…..or as my grandson who has been diligently moving the wise men closer to the Baby for 12 days said…..A Happy Very Little Christmas

  7. This clipper is overachieving somewhere, just not here. The DC metro area is receiving a solid 3-5″ of snow. More than most of this region has seen all season. Much more than they were expecting.

  9. If it’s not getting any warmer, than why was 2013 the warmest global temp recorded ever? I feel like there trying to tell me to drive on square wheels 🙂

    1. In November NOAA said 2014 was “shaping up to be” the warmest year on record. Haven’t seen final result.

  10. To what weather wiz had said on previous blog, that’s been going on for decades now, 2.2 million native new Englanders have left the area for warmer climates since 1970’s, and I hate to say this but I know many people that have turned Down a higher pay here BC of cold and high cost, 2/3rds of this countries population will be in the south southwest and west by 2050. I love it here, but winters are looong and don’t like it, don’t take this writing negative or bad bc it’s not its just what has and will happen, but in today’s modern world many dislike cold and snow more than ever, that won’t change. Fox 25 says this stay under your covers kind of day, brrrr enjoy your day 🙂

    4. For every 1 person that moves to massachusetts 3 leave, the only reason why mass has gained any population is BC of immigration (which is great) but without that the state would have lost almost 100,000 residents,

      Sorry for the interruption 🙂

      It’s freezing out there 🙂

    5. I am not a winter fan…I admit I hate snow…but I wouldn’t move South. Well not yet anyway. Actually I want to move to NH, but that won’t happen. I think a big issue is media. There is so much mainstream hype during the winter that I think it freaks people out and only adds to the their misery. Remember last year and the Polar Vortex was all the rage? I think the mainstream media really drags winter out and sensationalizes it.

      I admit as I get older I don’t like the winters as much. There is a reason why many older people head to FL for the winter I guess…HA. I love cold though so I am staying put for now.

        1. Funny…the South is definitely growing. They lost the Civil War because the Union had the people and more importantly, the manufacturing power. If it happened today (assuming no external help) the Union would lose big time. South is growing in population, has most of the big military bases, and manufacturing is dead in the North (unions, taxes) and has moved to the South (cars for example). The South has been successful in drawing plants to their location due to tax incentives, workforce, and lack of unions or union opt outs.

      2. Totally agree! It’s all over everywhere that this week is gonna be freezing, and coldest in years, it hurts these cold weather cities so much 🙂

    6. Just curious – do you have sources for all of that info (e.g., 1/3 ratio, definitely moving only south, etc.)

  11. at 9AM, Despite what radar shows, closest observation point showing snow is NYC.
    Just overcast at Bridgeport.

    1. The only thing resembling a snow flake I will see today or maybe even for most of the month for that matter will be dryer lint blowing out of the vent from my second floor.

  14. Nice write-up by Eric Fisher:

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/01/06/and-then-winter-showed-up/

    Something to Note:

    Snow Squalls:
    I’m also expecting there to be snow squall activity along this potent arctic front. These can be tricky and can have high impact, even if they only last for a short while. We may see bursts of snow around Wednesday afternoon, including into the evening commute. Be aware that if these materialize, there could be blinding, wind driven snow scattered around which will stick immediately due to the cold. Stay updated on the forecast and be sure to check a radar app or Twitter feed before heading out…don’t want to get caught in one of these! The giant pile-up on 93 in New Hampshire last Friday is a good example of what can happen if you aren’t careful.

    We’ll also be keeping an eye on ocean-effect snow bands that should set up heading into Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds will be shifting around a bit, but with air this cold flowing over the water there should be some bands to track for the Cape and Islands, and possibly the South Shore for a time. We’ll get a better handle on these by this evening and Wednesday AM, but am certainly expecting some areas of hyper-local wind driven snow to develop.

  15. Snizzle going on outside my window. I say snizzle since the ways its coming down it looks like drizzle.
    Tomorrow will be interesting where those snow squalls setup. There like thunderstorms in summer time not every community sees one but those that do could get a quick coating to an inch. Will be watching the radar tomorrow just like on a thunderstorm day in summer and see where these squalls develop with the front.
    A no hype meteorologist Bob Maxon here in CT and I love this quote. This is not unusual cold coming and it is not unprecdented.

  17. I am surprised by the echoes on the radar in central and western New England, didnt expect that. And, the snow is reaching the ground out there as verified by the 10am obs.

    As cold as it is, it will coat things quickly IF that stuff makes it to eastern New England.

    Personally, I am frozen !! So, I was not as aware to the overstating of the cold air by the media ….. Now that many have pointed that out, I guess I can see that they are in their usual exaggeration mode. 🙂

  18. It is snowing very lightly now where I am.
    Yes the media will exaggerate this as usual but to me its not unusual to have a low temperature in negative territory in January or highs in the teens.

    1. I was just going to post that.

      It looks as though the Northern section of precipitation is Starting to dry up
      and the Southern batch is heading OTS. Other than a few surviving flakes, I think that’s pretty much ALL SHE WROTE. DONE! FINI!

      Now let’s see if we can produce a WINDEX event for tomorrow.
      I’m not holding my breath. We shall see.

  21. It has been snowing lightly here in Lunenburg for about 30 minutes. The pavement is white. The current temperature is 15.

      1. Been like that for DC as long as I can remember.

        To them SNOW is a 4 letter word and it is. 😆 😆

  26. Tomorrow to me is like a thunderstorm day in the summer. Instead of tracking thunderstorms will be tracking snow squalls with the approach of the front.
    I would not be surprised some places in SNE delay the start of school Thursday morning with the forecasted lows and wind chill values.

    1. Heavy BURST OF SNOW here at the office.
      Visibility has dropped all the way down to 3 miles or so!
      😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

      Pretty sad when we have to be satisfied with 3 mile visibility snow. 😆

  28. BTW, this is a MORE reasonable assessment than the NWS special statement:

    Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7 53s54 seconds ago
    Some patchy light snow/flurries moving thru southern New England next 30-60 minutes. Coating in spots. #7news

  30. A friend of mine who is an attorney in DC posted this on her FB this morning:

    First snow in the D.C. area and the roads are gridlock. I haven’t seen one plow or sand truck, but I’ve seen plenty of cars and school buses skidded out and blocking the flow of traffic. I’m sure the schools that didn’t delay the start of the school day will be under fire along with the local transportation departments. Snowmageddon 2015! This is crazy!!!

  34. Seriously, visibility has just dropped to about 1-1.5 miles.
    It’s looking really WINTRY out there now. Whitening up for sure. 😀

  36. 11AM at Worcester still ONLY 11 DEGREES. 18 at Logan.

    Let alone what’s coming, this is pretty chilly air as it is.

  37. Narrow band of moderate on the CT shoreline between Greenwich and Bridgeport coming up from Long Island Sound.
    Steady light snow outside my window would not be surprised if there was a coating.

  38. Just curious…Why doesn’t DC invest in some snow removal equipment? It’s not like they don’t have the money available if you know what I mean. 😉

    Btw, snowing very lightly but steadily here in Dorchester.

    1. I am wondering since they only average around 15 inches for the winter is the reason they do not do that. Since 2000 I believe
      they have only had 3 winters with above normal snowfall and lot way below the normal.

    1. I must be too close to the Charlie hole, nothing white here, just very light flurries for the last hour or so

  43. What brings more snow the hardly anything forecasted for today for boston anyways or the heavy squall being said over and over again by mets for tomorrow.

  44. Totally agree on this one.

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 2m2 minutes ago
    Very light snow slowly weakening on radar & moving thru very quickly..leaving dusting behind #wcvb

    1. I was about to say… If anyone thinks we’re in for a surprise today, watch the radar trend. 🙂

  46. moderate snow in westborough, ground whitened up fast, including the roads. See an accident right out my window off route 9… Have to drive to Pennsylvania this afternoon, hopefully it will clear.

    1. Sorry I can’t help with your questions but want to wish you and yours a very Happy New Year, Merlin!

  48. Winter has finally arrived. It is invigorating and refreshing. Today’s snow is very limited, and tomorrow’s will likely be as well. But, at least it feels and looks like winter.

      1. Sure is. I actually think the delay will probably mean a cold and snowy march but tk seems to think winter will end early march.

  53. Light coating here in Wrentham, most noticeable on the paved surfaces. Been snowing lightly since 11 or so and it continues very light now. I like this weather, very winter-ish.

  55. Was out at lunch. Just got back.

    Nice out, although even I have to admit it is pretty chilly.
    I had to go down town and I am too cheap to pay for parking.
    Parked at a meter for 8 quarters and walked more than a mile each
    way rather than pay $27 to park.

    Nice invigorating walk. I dressed warmly with gloves and a hat so it was nice.

  56. Signs still point to “something” in the 1/12 to 1/17 time frame. Will have to continue to monitor. We shall see.

    In the meantime it will be fun to see how close we came to guessing the low
    temperatures Thurs AM.

    And of course the next feature: WILL there be snow squalls or not?
    That is the question.

    TK seems to think there will be a line. My money’s on TK.

    We’ll be in full watch mode. 😀

  58. So how long until they start naming cold air masses? They already use phrases like “Arctic Invasion” (which makes it seem like it shouldn’t happen). Maybe we can start with “Cold Air Mass Carla”…but that doesn’t sound scary enough. Maybe…”Arctic Air Mass Al.” Still not scary enough. How about “Frigid Air Mass Fred?”…any ideas???

  59. 4Pm at Logan = 17 Degrees. What was the high? 18 or 19?
    AND that was with a SOUTHWEST WIND. How often do you see that????

    That is plenty cold enough. No Need to get colder than that. 😀

    There isn’t going to be much air mass contrast with this front? The air before the front is almost as cold as the air behind it.

  60. From NWS re: Tomorrow:

    FIRST: THE PRESENCE OF SNOW SQUALLS PARENT WITH THE SWEEPING ARCTIC COLD FRONT. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDING WITH SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY…THEN AGAIN IT COULD BE A BIG BUST. NEVERTHELESS MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ON THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC TENDENCIES COULD AID IN THE LIFT OF ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN A MOSTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH ANY SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY…WOULD EXPECT NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW…DEPENDING ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE SNOW-SQUALL. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITHIN
    ANY WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS THAT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE AND
    PREPARED FOR…ESPECIALLY AS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE.

    1. Interesting that they indicate that it could be a BIG BUST. hmmm
      That EXUDES CONFIDENCE, doesn’t it. Pretty funny.

  63. GFS looks pretty dry for a stretch. Get those humidifiers cranking if you don’t want to get zapped!

  64. I’m getting tired of the “COULD BE A BIG BUST” with everything. It’s starting to sound like the Dolly Parton outlook. Seriously though, ANY forecast can bust. There is inherent uncertainty with predicting the weather and always the chance the person or people predicting it can be incorrect. Just tell us that the squalls are possible or probable, whatever the case may be, and for the sake of discussion you can say why you think that. If you are not coming out and saying 100% chance, fail safe forecast, which does not exist, then people should be smart enough to figure out there is a chance we may not see what’s predicted. And if they can’t see that, well, I can’t help them much there. 😛

  67. You must have someone on your roof dumping snow down. It’s hardly doing anything across the area. I can read the Marriot sign in Burlington and I’m in east Woburn. 🙂 Vis is pretty good. A few flakes drifting down.

    1. Well its not pouring snow but was coming down. Based on what Harvey said I thought this was over.

    1. Tired? 😉

      Did you see that little tail on radar? There was a very narrow convergence zone that earlier slid northward to the north of the city and then came back to the south and was still focusing some flakes. I barely had 0.2 inch here and I’m being generous.

    2. You have an inch realy. Oldsalty what’s it doing in west Roxbury. Man I don’t want to go back in I just sat down.

    1. Under animation is the play icon.

      Snow showers off the lake due to arctic air, however, I wonder if on the NW edge of the echoes, we can see the arctic front ?

  74. Mobile. It has cleared. Moon is bright.
    Temp dropping fast. Car reading 15 already.

    Snow in jp 1/10 to 1/4 inch tops.

    1. Wow, thats a 1/2 more inch than we got. 🙂

      It was kind of cool though ….. When a light mist of snow briefly fell, I happened to be on the road and these whisks of snow were whirling around on the road.

      1. It snowed at s decent clip for an hour or two. To be honest hard to measure anything bc of low water content.

  76. Just some thoughts on potentially moving back into dryness ……

    Logan recorded 5.83 inches of precip in Oct …… 4.28 inches of that fell in 3 out of the 31 days

    In November ….. Logan received 5.27 inches of precip ….. 4.26 inches of that fell in 4 out of the 30 days

    In December …. Logan received 6.56 inches of precip …. 4.98 inches of that fell in 4 out of 31 days. December had many more other smaller precip events on other days than October and November did.

    Of course, August and September were very, very dry and so, the increase in precip the last 3 months has been important.

    But, I wonder if the “distribution” of how precip is received, is as important as how much you receive ….

    In other words, a 30 day month can get 6 inches of rain by getting .20 each day or by getting 2 inches on 3 days and being dry the other 27 days ….

    Seems like our last 3 months have been more the latter, and I just wonder if a decent amount of it has run off now, that if it were to get dry, we could be back to an overall dry scenario fairly quickly again ……….

  77. Watertown, NY : S+ !!

    Lake effect snow band looks pretty impressive on radar, also one south of Buffalo too.

  79. Friday’s event may be a solid snow shower/squall event for the entire area, possibly more widespread and longer-lasting than any squalls that come through on Wednesday.

    1. When do we emerge from this pattern? Personally I would rather just get a storm and get it over with than threats (albeit minor) every other day.

      1. This pattern just got underway and will be around until mid month when it may break down. This is a cold and mainly dry pattern, low storm threat, generally a good thing as far as impact goes.

        1. I don’t keep track but it seems like we get constant wet weather (2x a week I think) for some time now. It’s been mostly rain up until now.

          1. That was the previous pattern. We have switched. There are no rain threats for quite a while. We’re in a long stretch of below normal precipitation that was forecast for January back in November. 🙂

              1. Thanks! I’m happy with the overall long range, but I did miss the November temps (went too warm) and the December precip (went too dry). At least I had the below normal snow. 😛

  81. does not seem to be any good chance of a moderate or greater snowfall unfortunately, some small snow shower kind events but maybe a change in February.

  83. Good Morning.

    Wind Chill Advisories up starting tonight through Thursday AM. Areas in eastern MA forecasted at -15 to -25 and inland -25 to -45. Of course, this makes for media headlines and hype. I think TK commented that many times wind chill forecasts do not come in as cold as expected.

    Current temp in Newton (my home): 11 degrees

  84. NWS indicated most models busted about 5-10 too warm last night. HRRR handling temps the best. Also best chance for snow squalls near the coast due to s little more moisture from ocean.

    1. Tomorrow is now maybe the bigger deal and timing for the am to boot will not be good 1-2 inches is realy possible . I’m wondering how involved boston will be if we get the squall today.

    2. Going to be hard to get moisture off the ocean with a west wind unless you’re by Cape Cod. 🙂

  85. Here’s my thoughts right now…

    * No squalls today. Maybe a flurry or snow shower, but there’s just not enough moisture for anything significant.
    * Dusting to an inch Friday, similar to what we saw yesterday
    * Generally near to below normal temperatures for the next 8-12 days
    * Potential for one or more storms in the 1/13 to 1/20 time frame, which the models are showing
    * Significant warm-up for the last 10-12 days or so of the month (by winter standards of course)

  86. Good morning. Another cold one.
    Squalls today or not. Don’t see anything
    Obvious on rada yet.

  87. I agree somewhat with WxWatcher above that moisture may be limited coming from the west. But sometimes squalls can come out of seemingly nowhere so we have to watch closely.

    Probably more widespread activity Friday morning.

    Blog is updated!

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