Arctic Arrival

538 Comments

7:29AM

A pure Arctic air mass arrives today with the passage of a cold front this afternoon. This front may produce snow squalls that can briefly reduce visibility and cover roadways with snow. It’s uncertain if everybody will see these or they will be more scattered in nature, but be prepared for sudden changes in visibility and road conditions if you will be driving. Before that arrives some moisture coming off the waters just south of New England may bring a few snow showers to Cape Cod and the Islands this morning. The core of the coldest air will pass through southeastern New England tonight and Thursday along with strong and gusty wind, with very low wind chills resulting. Protect yourself if you plan to be outside at all. A second disturbance and front will push through the region early Friday with another risk of snow showers and possible snow squalls. The push of cold air behind this will not be as strong as what comes just before it, but winds may end up stronger, so again it will be a low wind chill day. The cold continues but slowly eases during the course of the weekend and early next week. By Monday and Tuesday we’ll have to keep an eye on some offshore unsettled weather which will at least spread some cloudiness into the region and perhaps some light snow or mixed precipitation. The overall pattern is now cold and dry, however.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of snow showers Cape Cod and Islands morning and midday. Chance of snow showers and possible heavier snow squalls this afternoon. Any squalls could briefly bring heavy snow with reduced visibility and a quick covering of the ground. Highs around 25 through early afternoon then falling into the 10s. Wind W 5-15 MPH through midday, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from around -5 to +5, coldest northwest of Boston, least cold Cape Cod / Islands. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill of -10 to -25.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill -10 or colder at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely AM. Mostly sunny with isolated snow showers PM. Low 10. High 30 but falling again later.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix south. Low 20. High 35.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 25. High 35.

538 thoughts on “Arctic Arrival”

  3. Thanks Tk.
    FUNNY it’s 8 in the morning and no one
    Has a clue whether there will be snow
    Squalls or not. Fascinsting.

      1. Does anyone know or calculated
        The Winter instability index for this pm?
        If so we might have a better idea. Is it 10? 15?
        The higher the better.

  5. Looks like most mets advertising a coating to 2 inches for Friday morning. I think this is going to be an active snow month and will surprise people as we have another watcher around the MLK weekend time table.

      2. If January ends up below normal snow, unless we get slammed in Feb. chances of even sniffing average snowfall for the year are very slim. I think my prediction of 22.2″ is very much in play.

    1. Is that the Front? OR is it cloudiness from Lake Effect activity. Funny how
      it is ONLY right around Lakes Erie and Ontario. 😀

  7. Thanks TK.
    Going to be radar watching today just like on a thunderstorm day to see where any POTENTIAL snow squalls setup shop.
    Just like thunderstorms in summer not every community sees one but those that do a quick coating to an inch certainly possible.

  8. Here come the excuses….
    From the NWS

    THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SNOW SQUALLS WITH SUCH A STRONG ARCTIC
    FRONT. THERE IS DEVELOPING CONCERN FOR THE EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS. WHEN AIR GETS THIS COLD…THERE IS JUST NOT MUCH ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY TYPICALLY PRESENT. THAT IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY.

    I AM almost ready to KISS OFF any threat of snow squalls for today. Notice I said
    Almost. Will continue to monitor. NOT impressed at the moment.

    1. Epstein was saying yes could happen but not realy the best setup out there moisture wise so not perfect setup.

  10. Then another small amount of snow possible Friday and that low pressure system early next week looks to stay south but I would not write that one off just yet.

  11. Thanks TK. I am not kidding away squalls, I agree with nws it’s very hard to determine if any come through. They are not modeled well but it’s a pure arctic air mass coming in.

    1. I’m not saying they can’t/won’t happen, BUT when I have seen impressive ones, there usually (not always) has been some moisture and airmass contrast in place.

      The only comparison would be a cold front in the summer. IF it bumps into
      70 Degree dew point air with sufficient Cape and LI, then BOOM!!!!!
      However, if it bumps into an airmass with dew points in the 50s, not so much.

      Potentially there will be lift with the front. Will there be enough moisture available? That is the big question. And no one has indicated what the
      Windex actually is/expected to be for this afternoon.

      We will monitor and see.

      Or as Raj says on Big Bang. Let’s see What’s What.

    2. From Eric Fisher re: squalls today

      Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 16m16 minutes ago Boston, MA
      @JpDave13 Doesn’t look glaringly impressive, but I think a few should get going, especially farther into eastern MA and maybe ORH hills.

  12. The thing is.. all it takes is one small intense squall to drop visibility to near zero and cover the highway and you know what happens. Better to be warned reasonably, not over-hyped, about their possibility rather than leave them out and have a few thousand people caught off guard.

    1. Oh to be sure. That is understood and I agree totally.

      I’m just not overly impressed with the set up. I was SO looking forward
      to it. I’m almost feeling like an OTS snowstorm.

      On the other hand, Friday AM looks very interesting indeed. 😀

  13. The only thing certain is once the front passes those wind chill values are going go down big time.
    I know I am going to be dripping my faucets tonight with how cold its going to get. I don’t have a pipe burst.

  14. FWIW, Jamaica Pond was totally frozen over this morning when I drove by it.
    Already way ahead of the game compared to 2011-2012. 😀

  15. Did anyone have any thoughts about the EURO’s 980 something low around day 9 or 10 on this morning’s run ? I’m not so much asking about its low placement along with rain/snow implications …. I meant it more in terms of the chances of getting stormy vs staying dry for a good, long while.

    Think its an “outlier” run ?

    1. NO, they ALL have something in approximately that time frame/location

      Euro

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015010700&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=232

      CMC

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015010700&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=232

      GFS

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015010706&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=232

      GFS PARALLEL

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015010706&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=232

        1. I guess they do !

          Thanks OS !

          Been busy getting back into the flow of school and I only peaked at the EURO this morning.

  16. Districts are already grumbling about canceling schools due to the cold…(it does make some sense though, busses dont start kids are left outside longer) UGH where was that when i was younger!

    1. Climate change …… less experience today of having to stand out in cold weather …..

      ……………. ok 🙂 , if one doesn’t buy into that, then theory # 2 is that with today’s technology (better insulated, heated and thus warmer homes, heated cars, etc), we have become less tolerable to temperature extremes than previous generations. I think the same logic also applies to very hot weather days and how were less tolerable to it.

    2. I was mentioning the other day it would not surprise if some places in SNE delay the start of school for Thursday.
      Who knows if the wind chills get that low they may even cancel. I had one day in all my schooling where they called
      off school due to the cold.

  18. It’s insane to even of cxl school. Wind chil might not be as bad as forecasted etc… We live in NE for crying out loud.

  19. This is not unusual or unprecedent cold coming. Its a slap in the face after a mild December. Your not going to go the entire winter without getting at least one cold blast just like your not going to go a whole summer without getting a big blast of heat and humidity.

  20. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 2m2 minutes ago
    A few snow squalls moving into The Berkshires. Some of us may see a brief one this aft’n/eve #wcvb

    1. NOTICE the blossoming of echoes in the Berkshires.
      Is this the real deal? OR just some orographic enhancement going on?

  24. What draws my attention to the link you posted Old Salty is at 3pm that line of snow showers squalls on the CT shoreline. If that pans out I should see something around 2pm. The thinking from some our meteorologist here was the line of snow showers and squalls could get stronger as they approach the shoreline.

  25. Regarding school cancellatioins due to the cold, I heard that Minneapolis cancelled for today…but St. Paul did not.

    When school is cancelled due to snow, it is called a “snow day”, so when school is cancelled due to cold, is that called a “cold” day? 😀

  26. Philip when school was cancelled for me one day back in high school due to cold we called it a cold day. My one and only cold day in all my schooling.

    1. When I was going to school in Millis back in the 50s we had school cancelled
      at least once and it may have been a couple of times during a brutally cold
      stretch of BELOW ZERO readings in the morning.

      BUT it was worse one WINTER While I was attending Northeastern University.
      I remember one morning it was -17 at my house in Millis. I managed to
      get my old clunker car started and got to school without incident. No Big Deal.

      It’s Winter. It gets cold. Deal with it. 😀

    2. I had a “cold day” or two during my school days as well. I suspect every generation of schoolkids in the northern tier states experience them at one time or another.

  27. 12Z NAM showing some 5 inch snow totals for Friday AM to the West. About 2 inches
    for Boston.

    GFS a bit less.

  30. With the 0.2″ of snow yesterday, Logan’s total so far for the winter is at 4.5″. This is half of the total for the entire Winter of 1936-1937 = 9.0″.

  31. You could see the front showing up. Seeing snow showers and squalls NY state, PA and they look to be moving northwest to southeast. If you get caught in one it will come down hard for about 15 -30 minutes just like a thunderstorm in the summer time.

  32. Looking at the stuff in the Berkshires its looks to be ahead of the front like you see sometimes during the summer when you get thunderstorms to develop pre frontal ahead of the main line of action.

  33. One thought than two guesses : absolutely crazy if schools cancel because it’s cold outside and I would be shocked, floored if they did but I’m thinking they won’t sorry Tom, this isn’t Chicago c’mon . I do think boston gets hit with a quick coating up to an inch in a fee hrs and I’m still thinking upto if not more than a couple of inches for very early Friday.

    1. John, with very low wind chill, exposed skin can freeze in an amazingly short period of time. Many kids either walk or wait at the bus stop.

      I remember years ago that all schools but Framingham canceled because of the temp and one child in Framingham got severe frost bite. Also, I remember school canceling back in the cave days because of cold weather (that’s when I was young).

      http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/chill.htm

      1. I hear ya Vicki !!!! It’s just my opinion that school should not get cancelled around here and I would be shocked if A any did and B if they got into this practice. I don’t see it happening at all.

  34. FYI 12z gfs is very interesting for next week Tuesday and Friday. The run isn’t through all Friday but will post once it’s ready n

    1. They’re all interesting.

      My fear is that after ALL of this Cold, when the storm comes, it goes
      INSIDE Sure hope not.

    2. Yes I’ve heard Tuesday mentioned a fee times I believe tk has made mention of it as well. These little systems add up and than add a couple February storms and the numbers shoot up there .

  35. Harvey mentioned last night keep an eye on Friday and someone here mentioned it last night as well maybe Scott or Matt not sure.

    1. Scott posted a very interesting link on Friday’s set up. The NAM is beginning to pick up on that.

    1. That map includes this Friday as well. Run that map for 48 hours and totals
      are down to 6 inches. 😀

    2. i will believe when i see it within 2 days of the system that dumps it. until then expect small snow events nothing more than 1 inch or 2 inches max out of each of the systems. Northern jet is active but no merge of the southern stream to give moisture to it and maintain the cold

  39. GEE WHY DON’T THEY POST THOSE GFS SNOW TOTALS ON THE AIR TODAY SO PPL CAN GET READY!!

    😛

      1. Nope he just talked about this cold and wind coming in. He said
        anyplace that gets a squall should only last 10-15 minutes tops.

    2. The “real” line shows up on this display. It’s way out there.
      We’ll LOSE “Diurnal Heating” before it gets here. 😆

  41. Old Salty I made the comment earlier that stuff in the Berkshires looks like pre frontal action which you get sometimes during the summer ahead of the main line of thunderstorms. Instead of thunderstorms were tracking a line of snow showers and squalls that look to be on that northwest to southeast heading.
    Keep an eye to that sky this afternoon and if its looks dark hold off on travel and let it pass. These squalls come in fast like we saw last week in New Hampshire and causing problems on the roads.

  43. Latest from NWS:

    NEAR-TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WOULD LEAD YOU TO
    BELIEVE THAT THE CHANCE OF SNOW-SQUALLS DOES EXIST PARENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED ARCTIC FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP THE REGION AROUND THE 1 PM TO 4 PM TIMEFRAME. GOOD LAPSE RATES…STRONG NW-WINDS…ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE…YET LIMITED MAKING FOR AN ISOLATED-SCATTERED SNOW-SQUALL EVENT.

    1. I’m sorry but this is CONFLICTED information

      ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE…YET LIMITED

      Either there is enough or not. HOW do you say there is enough and then qualify it by saying LIMITED??? These people are daffy.

  50. Clouds increasing here in Wrentham as well. Wind also picking up, blowing away the light coating of yesterday. Thought it was actually snowing for a second when I looked outside and saw the snow blowing around. Still not convinced any squalls enter our area. We’ll see what they look like once they get over the terrain out west.

    1. I’m betting it happens. Hey people know it’s coming so everybody should be prepared. I hope Mr Walsh will be sending a team out tonight to try and get some homeless folks in. Some very stubborn and will not go and that’s a shame.

      1. I did not, a little late now, but I would say…

        BOS: +2
        PVD: +3
        ORH: -5
        HFD: 0

        I think without a snow cover in place, realizing the really low numbers will be difficult. We’ll see though, I’m rooting for Boston to go below zero.

    1. What were the ones we posted the other day for? I never did see when – just the suggestion – or are those for tonight? Darn, I’m soooo confused 🙂

        1. Thanks.

          For anyone wanting to add, if you put the numbers here, I will move to contest page. Otherwise, all numbers guessed to date are on the contest page, so you can just add there.

  58. Framingham just sent out “breaking news” (darn but I detest that phrase) that trash and recycling will be earlier than usual tomorrow because of weather. I have been distracted lately by a couple of things so have not followed timing as well as I might have, but isn’t it colder in the earlier hours???

  59. From NWS:

    WEATHER: CONSISTENT HRRR SIGNALS AND LOOKING UPSTREAM DECENT LINE APPROACHING OF SNOW SQUALLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED. SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY AFTER 1 PM…WORCESTER BY 3 PM…AND THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR BY 4 PM. WITH SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY EXPECT NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
    LESS THAN ONE-HALF MILE. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY UPWARDS OF AN INCH. EXPECT ACCOMPANYING WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH. WITH SUCH BURSTS OF SNOW AND WIND…EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS AND TRAVEL AT SLOWER SPEEDS WHEN ENCOUNTERING SNOW-SQUALL ACTIVITY.

  60. I asked a question earlier does anybody know what Logan recorded for snow just for January , I know not much.

  66. Line looks more impressive than I thought it would. Of course it looks like my area will get Charlie-holed, lol. Nice gap in the line heading right for me.

  68. Now the sun is breaking out where I am after the squall. The wind was gusting a bit but for all that spitting snow only a coating on the roads and the grass.

  70. Its like a thunderstorm in the summer time. Looking out my window at the time of the squall I would say the visibility dropped to under a mile. Even a coating of snow on the roads will make them slippery.

      1. The model is showing what the potential is that can be rung out of the atmosphere. It’s entirely possible someone gets 1 inch out of this.

      2. What are you talking about? It is a run and shows the totals for
        that hour. It does NOT say it snows for an hour. Could be
        15 min or 2o min or 1/2 an hour. As long as it was within that
        hour for the time period, the run gives that hour’s worth of
        accumulation.

        1. My mistake I thought you said a hour. I’m going with 15-30 and the 30 is pushing it. Wankum just said about a 10 minute burst .

  72. Just talked to someone in Leominster. Whiteout there. These things in their heavier cores are easily putting down 1/2 inch amounts in 15 minutes. Outside chance someone gets 1 inch. MOST areas will get under 1/2 inch.

    1. Agree those wete the exact numbers I posted earlier. And that’s the amazing thing is that it’s over so quick .

  73. It’s happening out there.

    Harry Scondras ‏@Scondrasht 8m8 minutes ago
    @pbouchardon7 @ericfisher @MetMikeWCVB whiteout in Dracut. Got worse since I took this pic.

  74. Just took a look out a window with a NW view. LOOKS like a Summer Thunderstorm
    approaching. AWESOME LOOKING out there.

      1. Awesome. Gotta love that! I can’t wait for it to arrive.
        Right now looks like it will be over before I have to commute home.

  79. Was interesting but nothing like the one I (and hundreds of others) were stuck in back in either 2003/2004. Although, looking at the radar, Framingham seems to have only gotten a taste of this.

  85. TK let me know how things pan out in Woburn…I am in Lexington. Been snow really light for about 5 minutes…nothing to report.

    3. you telling me that the gfs,gfs par, euro and Canadian all agree this far out, you know what that means… Its not gonna happen… Just kidding, I will believe it once we get closer. That could be between two different events.

  92. Hello and good evening, just had the front move through with a very brief snow shower, no accumulation 🙂

  98. Moderate to briefly heavy here. Peaked at 3:54PM and now it is getting lighter and you can see breaks in the clouds to the W-SW. Heavy dusting here. The visibility dropped down to under 1/4 mile for literally about 15 seconds.

  124. 4Pm North Adams, down to 10 Degrees already!!!

    Pittsfield, 9 Degrees

    Burlington Vt, 3 Degrees

    Massena, NY -5 Degrees

    BRRRRRRRRRRRR

    1. Now I am concerned that forecast lows are TOO HIGH!

      Not to be alarmist, but I remember waaaaaaay back near the end of a December in the 60s. A smallish inside storm passed between Worcester and the coast. and moved into the Guld of Maine and blew up. Forecasters called for COLD in it’s wake. Like +10 Degrees for Boston. Boston went to -5 Degrees!!!!

      SO, they were OFF by 15 Degrees. We have far more technology now, but even if the forecast if off by 5 Degrees, Boston could go to -5 yet again.

      Holy Crap.

      Let’s see what happens.

  126. Schools are closed tomorrow. What! It’s cold, but my goodness. Pretty soon schools will close because of HHH in early September, bright foliage in October, cut-off lows in April.

    I have a personal question. I have a funeral to attend. My best friend’s Dad suddenly passed away. The funeral is in Albany on Saturday. What will the roads be like on Saturday? It looks good on the weather.com forecast, but someone mentioned snow on Friday on this site.

    By the way, in reference to the Paris massacre by radical Islamists, “Je Suis Charlie.” I am utterly sickened by this attack on the core of what we all stand for – freedom of expression. It is a cowardly act of brutality against journalists armed with nothing more than their pens.

      2. Thanks, OS! As long as the snow isn’t coming down on the pike on Saturday. My car is a fair weather vehicle, which does poorly in snow.

        1. Only going by those 2 models, the bulk of the snow Falls Friday AM. If you’re driving on Saturday, My guess is you will be fine. Double check with TK, of course. 😀

    2. Lmbo!! Like I’ve said it’s become no different than the south, all relative, at 1 time kids would go to school in a few inches of snow, now they cancel because it’s to cold, it’s hilarious 🙂

      1. I’ve told so many that it’s not like it once was here, 2 inches will cancel snow now, and now I get to tell many they cancel now bc of cold, we live where it’s cold right? Lol 🙂 it’s changed in that fashion so very much the last 30 yrs

    3. Schools scancelled on Friday too, to much sun in the kids eyes, could cause blindness and acute symptoms of happiness 🙂

  127. Temps tonight from NWS

    IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARMEST ALONG THE S-SHORE WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE ZERO. COLDEST ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS WITH READINGS 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF MOS-GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

  128. Eric Fisher is already advertising on Facebook that there is hope for snowlovers in New England as the models are hinting at something for next Thursday.

    Queue John….

      1. It happens every year sue I’m telling you and I’m glad it is showing somthing. Whether it had poems or not there is s watcher . And tk you didn’t think this yr lol .

        2. And I still don’t. They are looking for anything without using actual meteorology. Just looking at models.

  129. I noticed most of the schools that are closed or opening late are not around here. Crazy. Should only be closed for heat issues or broken pipes .

  130. Framingham has said even if wind chill is -25 there will be school. They said they are confidence buses will start. That helped me remember what the problem was in the past. Several buses didn’t start and kids were stuck and bus stops and several had frostbite issues. The next time framingham did cancel because they had learned from their mistake. Their Short term memory loss is worse than mine

  131. Sorry charlie the more I think about the more I agree. Many kids walk 15-30 minutes to school and the wind chills will be dangerous. We are in a walk zone and a five year old could get frostbite very easily. Plenty of schools closed back in the day for cold. Nothing new.

    2. IMHO You are correct Hadi. It is one day of school. It has been done since the cave days when OS and I were in school so it is nothing new. I mentioned above that even for those who take bus, if the buses do not start kids are stuck. There is absolutely no way to cover every inch of skin.

    3. Huh? It’s very different, New England is not hardy like it once was, if you think schools cancelled bc of a 0 degree reading with no snow back in the 70’s and 80’s Ill sell ya the Brooklyn bridge 🙂

  132. Plenty of kids in BPS are very poor and can’t afford warm clothing or rides to school so they walk to T etc… I have no problem with schools closing or opening late. But most people don’t care about the inner city kids as long as the suburb kids are ok.

  133. No need to close any schools unless they have no heat, no water, or no power. Otherwise it’s a complete overreaction. Period.

    Breeding a society of wimps and it’s f’ing reduculous.

    And if people can’t afford warm enough clothes we can use some of the Taxachusetts $ to supply them. 😛

    1. That is exactly what I said to my wife three hours ago when she texted me with the news.

      Ummmm… these “kids” need to have work ethic branded into them like no other generation. After all, they’ve got our debt to pay. We’ve been living fat and happy for 30+ years on their future earning ability. They should start working now in fact AND go to school.

        1. That’s right! :). At least we’d be being honest with ourselves finally with what we’ve done to them.

          Sorry for the political rant. It’s just that I HATE hypocrisy.

    2. Totally and absolutely disagree. Since it backfired in this town years ago, I’d say that is enough proof that there can be a problem. E’fing???? Is that really you?

  134. I find it interesting that our grandparents every day walked 3 miles to school in 3 foot snow drifts UPHILL no less…at least that is the stories that have been told for generations. 😉

    Is the reason for so many 2-hour delays, thinking temps will warm up a bit within that timeframe after normal school openings?

    2. Philip, as OS an I have said…they did cancel school for cold back in our day as well as for snow…regularly in the case of the latter.

      What I find curious is that framingham will not cancel or delay school…so far that’s what they have stated….but they are scheduling trash pickup EARLIER when it will be colder. Clearly they don’t care about adults or kids 🙁

  135. Safety first should always be the motto. It won’t hurt them to have to make up one day at the end of the year.

    2. Of course should TK’s forecast for February verifies, the kids many have A LOT of days to make up. Let’s see what happens. 😉

      Btw, TK’s Winter forecast overall is going as well so far. 🙂

  136. Sorry, not changing on this one folks. 🙂

    All the schools and state offices are buying the media’s “coldest in years” garbage. It’s been worse than this with no cancellations, or very few. I think it’s an overreaction.

    I’d love to see what they would have done with the Winter of 1979-1980. School would have been cancelled so many times they’d have gone until August 15!

    1. I remember a lot of days off in 1979. For colleges as well as public schools. I remember days when ski areas in Nh closed their mountains because of wind chills. This isn’t anything new. And as was wisely said……one day to be safe hurts no one. As far as wimps. I don’t see that in the newest generation. I see kids with work ethic and determination.

      1. We had a grand total of zero. 😀

        I sure hope you’re right about the new generation. I’m raising one. 🙂

    1. See that’s all a matter of perspective. The people in Minnesota are used to that and thus they don’t need to cancel school. They have adapted. If Minnesota weather happened here, we would cancel at first, but if it continued, we would adapt. Similarly, in New Dehli last year it was 40 degrees and my cousins got school off. It’s all perspective.

      2. We may find out. Some of the climate change forecast models have pointed to while most of the world becoming a furnace, eastern Canada and the northeastern USA becoming an ice box. Boston may someday be the new International Falls. Wouldn’t that be something. 😉

  139. Here’s another thing that needs to be clarified. The media has brainwashed everybody to think that this is a highly unusual event.

    BAAHAHAHAHAHA!!
    ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

    Are the temps well below average? YES. ABSOLUTELY. But we’ve talked about this before. Boston MAY touch 0 tonight, but probably will stay just above. They don’t go below zero too often in the city (i.e. Logan). That makes sense! They’re on the WATER!

    But air masses like this come along about every other Winter, depending on the pattern, sometimes more than a few times in a given Winter. It’s not really that unusual. Don’t be fooled by the sensationalist media. GIVE ME A BREAK!

  140. I would be curious if Boston cancelled school on either/both of these dates:

    Thursday 2/8/1934 = -12F
    Friday 2/9/1934= -18F

  141. Ok back to the weather from a forecasting standpoint…

    I’m starting to think the Friday thing may be falling apart as it comes through, probably minimizing potential somewhat. Winds will probably be stronger Friday than they will be tonight / tomorrow.

    Saturday will probably be fairly windy as well.

    Probably not much sun next week at least Monday-Thursday. But probably not that much storminess, at least snow storminess. If something does bend enough to come up, it probably bends plenty of mild air in with it and odds will end up favoring a mix to rain situation, but there is plenty of wiggle room for that to go either way this far in advance. I’m just not very bullish on any chance of significant snowstorms in this area right now, and it may be quite a while before that turns. I have my head wrapped around this pattern pretty good right now.

  142. Schools scancelled on Friday too, to much sun in the kids eyes, could cause blindness and acute symptoms of happiness 🙂

    1. Next week you’ll get a call to clean up parking lots of sand and salt because a particle might make someone sneeze.

  143. Chasing June 16th ……. School tomorrow, please !

    If a delay helps, then fine. Otherwise, no cold day !!

    That we need to have this discussion is reason # 9,572 that this depth of cold stinks. Its as miserable as intense heat or humidity. And it costs a crap load to keep your house comfortable.

  144. My son just cracked me up. He had no knowledge of the discussion here and he says this to me: “Apparently Tom (his friend) thought school might be cancelled tomorrow, because it might be TOO COLD”. And when I told him there are several cancellations/delays he bursts out laughing and goes “WHAT? WHY? You live in New England! It gets COLD here you idiot!” … I have to get him to post on here more often. You guys will love him.

        1. I haven’t taught him any of that. He is a very independent thinker and it’s just how he feels about it. 🙂

          And yes he has posted here in the past.

    2. TK my daughter who has spent a good part of her life taking care of her horses daily in all sorts of weather because the four legged guys need their partners no matter how cold or hot would love to have a conversation. She coined the term independent….or perhaps inherited it….. :). Her view of arguing over one day of erring on the side of caution is a bit different.

      I did tell her the comment about wimps….she had a similar comment as your sons and tossed out a few challenges.

      That said….I absolutely know I would adore your son and love seeing him post on here. I remember quite a while ago when he did post.

      Remember…..it is all opinion and no ones opinion is ever wrong. It is when we start to think they are that we have a problem.

  147. I’m glad the outgoing governor was able to walk down the steps outside before it was too cold to step outside, or we might have had to endure him longer. Maybe next week he can go skating with former governor Bill Weld on the frozen Charles River, Weld’s favorite body of water. 😛

    2. Love Deval. Enjoy Baker as all he cares about is profits for big companies. Not like he can get his agenda passed anyway due to the democratic state house. Thank goodness that’s the case.

  148. You know since Eric posted that it wont happen right. 😉 Latest models all ready show it not happening

  149. TK, I have a “somewhat” serious question regarding Sunday’s Dallas-Green Bay game:

    Will it be a repeat of the 1967 Ice Bowl in terms of temps? I suspect that Jimmy would like to know this as well. 🙂

  150. Here is an air mass that made this one look insignificant. Some of you recall December 25 1980. Boston’s high temp at midnight of 34 then plunged 41 degrees to a low of -7!

    The daytime high on Christmas Day here on Woods Hill was -4!

    Here is more about that day:

    The northeastern U.S. reported their coldest Christmas on record courtesy of a strong upper level trough. The temperature at Boston, MA plunged from 34° to -7° as the sharp cold front swept southeastward. Temperatures during the day in parts of New England hovered around -20° all day long. It was a cold Christmas with a low temperature of -38° at Old Forge, NY and -1° at New York City.
    Locations reporting all-time December record lows included: Binghamton, NY: -18° (broke previous daily record by 10 degrees), Buffalo, NY: -10° and New York (LaGuardia), NY: -1°.
    Locations that reported daily record lows for the date from the Plains to the East Coast included: Ste. St. Marie, MI: -25°, Burlington, VT: -25°, Syracuse, NY: -22° (broke previous record by 19 degrees), Portland, ME: -16°, Hartford, CT: -13°, Williamsport, PA: -13°, Rochester, NY: -12°, Toledo, OH: -12°, Milton MA: -11°, Worcester, MA: -11°, Providence, RI: -10°, Detroit, MI: -8°-Tied, Flint, MI: -7°-Tied, Avoca, PA: -7°-Tied, Elkins, WV: -7°-Tied, Columbus, OH: -5°, Dayton, OH: -5°, Bridgeport, CT: -4°, Youngstown, OH: -4°, Atlantic City, NJ: -2°, New York (Central Park), NY: -1°, Allentown, PA: -1°, Newark, NJ: 0° (broke previous record by 11 degrees), Erie, PA: 1°, Harrisburg, PA: 1°, Philadelphia, PA: 1°, Wilmington, DE: 2°, New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 3°, Charleston, WV: 4°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 5°, Roanoke, VA: 7°, Wallops Island, VA: 10°, Norfolk, VA: 16°-Tied and Dallas (DFW), TX: 17°-Tied.

  152. Go Cowboys Sunday! Cowboys undefeated on road 8-0 Packers undefeated at home 8-0. We got to make Rogers scramble on that bad calf along with control time of possession and a lot of scoring drives.

  153. To change the topic from a subject that really has little bearing on world events…..I just took a walk and there is nothing like listening to the snow squeak under your shoes mixed with a wind gusting into the 20s

      1. Ace you read my mind. That is exactly what I was thinking as I walked. Rather than ski boots, I had on slippers and PJs. Yes my neighbors know I am certifiable.

  154. Does anyone remember what I had for Boston’s low overnight in that little impromptu poll we took?

  155. I was dying for your response Tom and I just knew you would feel that way as a teacher , so crazy the schools doing this insane. Nice example Boston calling off school bunch of wimps!!! Now explain that to the parents who need to call in sick tomorrow cause it’s to cold outside. That’s all I’m saying .

    1. Actually, John. Nothing is crazy….as I said before when you start labeling the opinions of folks, we have a real problem.

      1. That’s one thing I don’t do no matter how much I butt heads with someone on an issue. If I label it, it’s usually in a kidding fashion and they know it.

      2. I’m not labeling anybody at all . it’s an opinion which is allowed here and seem most agree with that.

  156. You think I’m feisty right now? YOU’RE LUCKY. I HAVEN’T EVEN HAD MY CAFFEINE YET!

    Arctic air does this to me.

  157. TK…Any idea as to how long into February will we have to wait for those snow events that you have in your Winter outlook? I hope that you haven’t changed your mind on that.

    Before, during or after kids school vacation? Spread out during the month or one big DUMPING at once? 😀

    1. I have not changed my mind on it. As far as when? I feel it will be spread fairly evenly through a 4 to 6 week period from January 24 through March 8.

      We CANNOT rule out a renegade significant snow event in January before that period begins. I just feel that the pattern does not support it for the foreseeable sensible forecasting future.

  158. Upstream temperatures do not support Boston getting down to zero tonight. One significant factor against. Burlington VT needs to be about 5 to 10 degrees colder as does Albany, given this is not a radiational night, but an advection situation (which most of Boston’s coldest nights and days are).

    1. Burlington is -1 at 7PM
      While Boston was 15

      So you’re saying Burlington needs to be -11 to -16 at this hour for Boston
      to go below 0???

  160. Hmmm

    The temperature here is dropping like a Cement block with a body attached.

    Down to 11.3 and it’s not 8PM yet. I don’t know at what rate it will continue to drop, but we have what 10-11 hours of possible cooling. I am almost guaranteeing that here
    in JP we DROP BELOW ZERO.

    I don’t know about Logan. I’m in for +1 at Logan. Wrestled with +2 but went with +1.
    I fear I may be HIGH there now. We shall see.

    It will be really interesting tomorrow AM.

    re: Friday
    18Z NAM dropped qpf significantly, so I certainly saw that and gave me pause.

    Sure why not. Every opportunity fizzles out. That kind of Winter. 😀

  162. The biggest temp drops usually occur in the first 4 to 6 hours after the passage of an Arctic front. After 10PM you will notice the rate of temp drop will slow. This is what will keep Logan above zero tonight.

  163. I have no problem with schools being closed. Again I bring up the point about safety. Keep in mind BPS has a ton of kids that walk a fair distance, take public transportation and don’t have ideal living conditions. We are not weakening our kids by doing this. Unfortunately our society thinks that we need to toughen people up etc…but I believe the opposite. We need to care for people, look out for others who are less fortunate.

    1. Hadi, I agree. I have no problem. It’s only a day. Big deal.

      I work in Roxbury. I see these kids out in the morning and you are
      100% correct.

  166. OMG OMG OMG
    The GFS show’s a “BLIZZID” on January 15!
    I’m gonna have to cancel my plans to go to the BRUINS GAME! OMG OMG WHAT SHALL I DO? THE MODEL HAS A BIG SNOWSTORM!

      1. Actually it’s there 2 runs in a row. But if it hangs around that spot, you know it will go inside anyway, which was my original call on that system about 5 days ago. 😉

        1. I know. Been there with Euro and CMC.

          I posted yesterday that it would probably end up inside.

          We shall see.

  167. This is a direct quote from the friend of someone on my Facebook friends list:

    “Alabama has a 2 hour delay due to frigid below zero wind chill temperatures, ”

    The entire state has a 2 hour delay? Does that mean even your dentist is opening 2 hours late? 😉

        1. You’ll have to find the F’n little vermin crawling inside
          of my computer that pulls up an OLD copy and pastes that instead of my CURRENT COPY! DRIVING ME NUTS!!!

    1. The good thing is it’s not long lasting at all which is a good thing. I find at work being outside if your dressed for it and keep moving its not that bad.

    1. The GFS has an issue putting lows out there that end up at least 100 miles further west. And once the PV lifts the next trough likely drops in further W.

  177. Well… I’m about to go out and brave the cold! Out of milk and don’t want to go out in the morning when the temp (air and wind-chill) is even lower!!! Thank goodness my car has an auto-starter! BRRRRRRR!!!

    1. It’s worse now than it will be in the morning. Winds will have come down a bit by just after dawn.

  178. Finally got my stubborn cat to come in the house. Was afraid I would find a catsicle on the front porch in the morning.

  184. Forgot to winterize my outside spickets this year…I assume there is a warm up coming I can do this in?

  187. I am amazed a lot of schools up there are closed and they are not going with a delayed opening like a lot of school systems here in CT are doing.

    1. JJ, when it is a larger town or there are multiple bus routes and kids, the fear is buses getting held up for the first run and then the third run (elementary kids) being delayed at the bus stop. In the 36 years I have lived here, we have had just one delay for that reason and it worked fairly well but not enough to chance kids being left standing outside

        1. I was just looking at the closings and it seems most towns are delaying and the larger ones are canceling. One that caught my attention was Weston. I don’t see them cancel or delay often and they delayed.

  188. Hello John? Still waiting for a reponse on the “wow”. Just wondering why the “wow”. Did I say something offensive to you?

  192. Seriously. We are debating kids out in this and I’m having trouble resenting the creature I hear in our ceiling.

  193. 4.3 here. Not Midnight yet. Almost certain to crack 0.
    It was 5 at the airport. They may crack 0 as well.

  195. Well it is 2:30 AM and I cracked ZERO. I believe I am reading -0.5 degrees. Wind chill maybe -11 .

  203. Jeremy Reiner ‏@jreineron7 30m30 minutes ago
    Congrats Boston!—Your 1st *Below 0* temp since Jan. 24th 2011. Map shows latest (5am) temps. #7news

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B60kSGnCcAAR8EE.png

    Currently -1.1 by my thermometer, which is Oregon Scientific.
    Was down to -1.5 awhile ago.

    Hadi I believe you called -2 for Logan. You still have a bit of time for Logan to get there. Nice job.

  204. The 15th is getting more and more interesting, one week out now.

    Euro

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015010800&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=250

    CMC, not so much

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015010800&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=277

    The GFS is suffering from Multiple Personality Disorder and doesn’t know which one it is today. Both of them!!!

    So where does that leave us. Up in the air as per usual.

  205. Re Contest: Unofficial and there is still about 1/2 hr of possible temperature drop.

    Boston -1
    Providence 1
    Hartford 1 Bradley 0
    Worcester -5

  206. Just dropped back to -1.5 here.

    Hadi is a mile away from me at -3.0

    My thermometer is Oregon Scientific
    His is L. L. Bean

    Tk thoughts on quality/accuracy????
    No Big deal, Just curious. Thanks

  207. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 38s38 seconds ago
    RT @2EXPLICIT_1994: @MattNoyesNECN down to -2 here in Boston

  208. Record Report from National Weather Service Burlington Vt
    RECORD REPORT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
    623 AM EST THU JAN 8 2015

    …new record low temperature for january 8th set at montpelier
    vermont…

    the temperature at the knapp state airport in barre-montpelier
    vermont early this morning was 19 degrees below zero. this breaks
    the previous record low temperature for january 8th of 18 degrees
    below zero set in 1968 and again in 2004. if the temperature falls
    any lower this morning, than an updated record report will be
    sent.

  212. Pretty uniform cold.

    Burlington, vt -10
    Concord, NH -8
    Worcester, MA -5
    Boston, MA -2
    Berlin, NH -18 Way up in God’s country

  214. From NWS re: Middle of next week.

    THE MAIN QUESTION
    WILL BE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA…AND
    THE RESULTING STORM TRACK. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO SAY MUCH
    MORE ABOUT THE DETAILS…BUT WE MAY BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE
    PATTERN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.

      2. After checking the 7AM obs and 6 hour minimums, here is the latest on contest
        low temperatures:

        Boston: -1
        Worcester: -4
        Providence: +1
        Hartford: +1, Windsor Locks: 0

        1. Did the NWS do one of those little contests? They do them on the FB page sometimes. I never checked.

  219. I think I saw an earlier post about going back to January 2011 and Boston’s first below 0 temp since then …..

    Now, my memory is horrible !!!! So, take this with a grain of salt ….

    Wasn’t it last winter that we were wowed with a storm that it snowed in Boston, even moderately at times and the temp was slightly below zero ……….

    1. It was slightly above, but in the single #’s.

      The only temp that really surprised me this morning was Logan’s. Did you notice how uniform the low temps are? That was the wind doing that. 🙂

      1. Thanks TK !!

        Yes, the wind does have the airmass fairly uniform.

        I also noticed the slight temp gradient across New England, matching to the 290 wind direction.

        While its still “frigid” in CT, it mostly stayed above 0F. It definitely gets even colder as you proceed northeastward through New England.

        1. I guess that sounds conflicting …..

          Within an area, from northwest to southeast, the temps are uniform …. but, as you move from southwest to northeast, the uniform temps definitely get colder. 🙂

  221. Got down to -3.5 in Groveland in NE MA this morning. Didn’t feel as cold as when I was stuck in Chicago last January with high temps in the -20’s

  222. Stayed at -3 here in JP. Our daycare was open so we brought both boys in today and when we went outside Samir’s eyes started watering from the cold. Now imagine 5-7 year olds walking a mile to the T then waiting for T and then walking again to school. I applaud the mayor for making the call to close schools.

    John I still want to know why I got the “wow” yesterday 🙂

    1. I saw some MIGHTY cold looking people walking to various T stations this morning. NO children, thankfully.

  223. It went to -5.6 in Pelham, NH. That was my low, it stayed there from 7:12-7:37am and then began to rise. It is currently -0.1…

  224. Love the Channel 7 blog title…”Extreme Weather.” Going below zero in January in the winter…who would have thought?

    2. It’s funny in a way. Single #s above are not that rare at Logan but below are much moreso. I guess 0 is indeed the magic number. 🙂

  226. I don’t think I have ever been so grateful for my automatic car starter as I was this morning. I drive my two boys to school as well as two kids from our neighborhood and they all appreciated getting into a warm car.

  227. COLD for sure. Many mornings in Winter of 1979-1980 like this. On the border of extreme for the city bit still not near their coldest and the wind and wind chill did not maximize their potentials this morning so it could have been more harsh.

    A moment of honesty as brutal as it may seem. I love this weather.

    1. I also love it. I was out again in just a sweatshirt walking around the yard and listening to the squeak.

      2. You agree that you love this weather, John??? I seem to recall you love the HHH and not so much this weather.

          1. ditto – and fog and rain and thunder and lighting and snow and ………..well, I love it all and know you do as well.

  228. An interesting and more than concerning comment from one of the posters on BZ. OneStack drives a truck (and his comment was corroborated by another trucker). OneStack also runs multiple car shows in east MA. And he is quite conservative. I had not realized the brake system could be compromised. Concerning.

    “school buses have problems in extreme cold.not just fuel gelling up,the bigger problem is the air system.when the air compressor compresses air,there’s always moisture,not much,but enough to clog the air lines that run the braking system.that goes for other transportation that run air systems.you might say we never had this back in the day,true.before the mid 80’s school buses were gas powered and had hydraulic brakes.less problems.”

      1. You gotta love officials who should know this and at least pass the knowledge to the parents so they can make a choice.

      2. Yup. See that study that shows all these new green/energy efficient buildings often waste more energy than old non-green building?

        2. I could be wrong, but i think it has to do with the energy required to create the new forms of energy, e.g. solar panels cost more to create and use more energy to create than an old building uses in something like 50 years. Same with recycling waste materials. The cost and energy used it twice as much as just incineration.

          1. I have to ask mac because it is his field. Our electric grid in completely inadequate and outdated and needs trillions to upgrade. I suspect putting $$ to antiquated and inefficient systems is more costly than investing in alternatives. Not to mention we are running out of a good deal of what it takes to power them.

  229. -5 at Woods Hill. 7 degrees warmer than my all time low (records back to 1970 starting with my brother). 🙂

  232. Anyone have any thoughts about a possible wind event in far SE Mass tonight …….

    I seem to recall reading in the NWS discussion that while it remains very cold aloft, the boundary layer in far SE Mass might moderate enough to mix the strong winds aloft down to the surface, etc ……..

    I do see high wind watches up for the Cape. Somehow, the winds usually also makes it up to Marshfield.

  235. I think the thing that impresses most about this cold shot is that it was accomplished without a great deal of snow cover in New England.

    1. I agree it is very impressive that we had the extreme cold without snow cover. I just love snow storms and hope to see some soon in the future.

    2. I agree it is very impressive that we had the extreme cold without snow cover. I just love snow storms and hope to see some soon in the future.

    3. NOTHING about this cold shot impresses me. NOTHING.
      I’ve seen it plenty COLDER.

      It’s Winter in New England. Big F’n Deal.

      And oh, while I’m at it. IF it hits Below Zero 3 times in 10 years,
      that is NOT RARE. It’s perfectly NORMAL.

        1. Both of ours did as well. Neighbors pipes froze. I was just out and saw several plumbing trucks in driveways. Will be interested to see if my SIL got frozen pipe calls today

  237. 😆
    12Z GFS takes the system for 1/15 and Ejects it OUT TO SEA WAY SOUTH
    of our area.

    Waiting for the 12Z EURO to get a reality based result.

      1. I disagree, I think we’ll wring out enough for 1-2 inches across the state. The “Clipper”, if you want to call it that from Tuesday Night was much less impressive and that dropped a solid 1/2inch across the area

      2. Seems all three major stations have coating to inch greater Boston and maybe 2 in Worcester Hills area and perhaps a bit south of that.

  239. We are up to a whopping 18.2 degrees…

    Summertime and the livin is easy…..oh, sorry, lapsed into song there for a minute!

    Absolutely pure blue sky. Just saw a V formation of birds heading south. I heard some fly over last night also.

      1. I was thinking the same. I though I’d imagined hearing them last night until I just saw them now. Wish I’d been able to get to a camera in time. With the sun shining on them against the cold blue sky, they were beautiful

  240. Ok peeps. WHW question of the day.

    Is it?

    a) cold
    b) “wicked” cold
    c) extreme cold
    d) brutal cold

    Answer will be provided later

  242. I’ll say D.

    A is like, yea its below 32. B is like a well below normal winter day in the teens or so, C is well below zero, D is just right. It was brutal outside this morning!

      1. Disclaimer…I’m still not wearing a jacket so am looking at it from a rational person’s perspective and not mine 🙂

      2. OS, are you sure? On wundermaps hour 180 it shows(16th) it shows the low just off the coast of Deleware with precip starting to reach this area. Am I missing something? There was no frame after that yet, but if anything it’s close

        1. It stays to the South. “May” get fringed, but that’s about it.
          I think Hadi said qpf = .14 inch.

  246. shows light snow for Mon/Night into Tuesday morning, but Wundermaps isn’t far enough out for the 15th time frame

  247. Tom I think you asked about the wind issue for tomorrow. Below is s nice write up by Dave E

    The next weather event is an area of strong winds poised to reach Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and the Islands tomorrow morning and continue much of the day. These winds are the result of a strong band of winds, called a low level jet stream which will move over these areas. These types of jet streams are common, but don’t often reach the ground. This is different than the higher level jet stream that moves storms around the planet.

    The low level jet often occurs when you have big changes in temperature, like the departure of arctic air followed by more seasonably cold air. If these winds mix to the ground, some areas could see winds in excess of 45 miles per hour or even 55 miles per hour in isolated gusts. This is enough to cause scattered power issues tomorrow.

  249. I don’t see the wind as much of a problem up this way.
    Down the Cape and Islands it will be close.

    1. I posted that twice earlier today.

      After checking the 7AM obs and 6 hour minimums, here is the latest on contest
      low temperatures:

      Boston: -1
      Worcester: -4
      Providence: +1
      Hartford: +1, Windsor Locks: 0

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